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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



'Just 118,000 votes'

Posted: Friday, October 17, 2008 1:33 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Ron Allen
NEWARK, Ohio -- For two days, Biden rode a bus south, through Eastern Ohio. His route parallels the Ohio River for the most part, along the border with West Virginia and then where it bends a bit West forming the border with Kentucky.

Biden is running a leg of a relay that "Team Obama" has been charting across this prized state with the two nominees and big-name surrogates, like the Clintons, here seven-straight days. Bill, and then Hillary Clinton will each carry the baton separately later this week.
 
It's obviously a state Obama is trying very hard to win, for perhaps obvious reasons. 
 
In Ohio, the Obama campaign seems somewhat obsessed with numbers, beginning with the 118,000 or so vote John Kerry lost this state by, and therefore, the presidency.
 
Biden's staff circulated a memo, for example, with some numbers:
-- 89 Ohio offices for Obama
-- 43 miles is the farthest distance any Ohioan lives from an office
-- 13 barns have been painted with Obama logos. (We haven't seen them.)
-- 1900: the last year a presidential candidate visited a place called Georgetown, where Obama dropped by last week.
 
But in 2008, it’s really all about those 118,000 votes.
 
A local newspaper reporter, traveling on Biden's bus said, "He's hitting the battlegrounds in The battleground."

He's campaigning through a string of counties split by President Bush and Kerry four years ago, with an emphasis on building up the numbers where the Democrats won, and more importantly shaving down the margins where they lost.

That's why Biden was on stage outdoors under a full moon, on a warm Indian summer night, in Marietta, Ohio, Washington County, Appalachia. It's an old coal-mining town. Employers like the nearby steel plant have hit hard times. The population is shrinking. Poverty rates are rising. President Bush won here by a comfortable margin.

The campaign says a place like this isn't necessarily "friendly turf." But this year they clearly see it as fertile ground. The crowd is almost exclusively white, middle and working class. Voters the "Joe Biden from hardscrabble Scranton, PA” has been sent here to connect with.
 
Much of Biden's speech on this evening gushes with empathy and understanding. He probably touches on every kitchen-table issue that's out there, pulling at the crowd's heartstrings with stories about the parents who must break the news to their college-age daughter, that there's no money for another semester of school. And there's the story about the guy who doesn't know how much it costs these days to fill up his car with gas, because he never has enough money to even try to top off his tank.
 
We've heard all of this before, and Biden's message is drawn from unfortunate, even tragic, real-life experiences he says he's heard along the trail. But the Democrats hope in Ohio, that they're reaching a lot of voters perhaps for the first time.

They're reaching into smaller towns, Marietta has some 14,515 people, and more rural communities like that town of Georgetown that hadn't seen a presidential candidate in more than 100 years. It's now no secret they're trying to do the same thing in other battlegrounds.
 
At stops later in the heavily Republican exurbs of Lancaster and Newark, Biden promises Obama's public-works plan to fix bridges, roads and infrastructure will bring 76,000 new jobs to Ohio.

In this state, where Biden calculates for his audience that they've lost some 240,000 manufacturing jobs the past eight years, crowds rise to their feet, cheering for the issue Democrats hope helps eliminate that 118,000-vote edge.

And summing it all up, Biden gives this assessment of McCain's campaign. "While the economy is going to hell in a hand basket…they're running the most scurrilous campaign in modern history."

Biden's Eastern Ohio bus ride ends with a turn northwest to the center of the state and its capital Columbus. Team Obama has no doubt it will run up big numbers here, and in Ohio's other urban centers. At a Democratic campaign office he rallies the ground team already hard at work with early-voting underway, predicting that this election will show how "the Obama campaign revolutionized American politics."

If not a revolution, they hope they've figured out enough new places to campaign, where Democrats don't usually go, to avoid coming up 118,000 votes short, or worse, again.

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Comments

Yay Team Obama!  So much fun to see them whip the fraudulent Ohio GOP that has stolen several elections with their voter supression fraud.  Yep Ohio will turn a nice shade of True Blue thanks to the Supreme Court denying them the chance to perpetrate yet another fraud this election.

It's time for some wealth redistribution as we settle the score with the rich and greedy.  It was the repugnant ones, including "Liar" McCain, who have allowed the federal government to steal from Social Security to balance the budget while giving the rich and greedy more tax cuts they don't deserve or need.  It was the repugnant ones who have financed those tax cuts with huge budget deficits, stealing from future generations.

Time for Robin Hood government of taking from the rich and greedy and giving to the poor and needy.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
McCain’s misrepresentation of “Joe the Plumber” typifies the fraud that is deeply woven into the entire McCain campaign.

McCain’s fraudulent representation of  “Joe the Plumber” compares to his fraudulent  representation  (1) of  Obama’s tax proposals, (2) of  his own health care proposals and (3) of himself as the candidate of change.
The greatest feeling one can experience as an American is exercising one's right/responsibility to vote. On Wednesday I proudly cast my ballot for Obama/Biden. What a great feeling. What an honor.
I really enjoyed the levity from last nights Al Smith fundraiser. Both candidates looked great and both were hilarious. It was a nice break from the filth being promoted by the McSame campaign. It breaks my heart when I see the clips of the white people that are so ignorant and hateful towards our next President, Barack Obama. Get used to saying America! President Barack Obama.
Don't let up now. Everyone: Please vote!
Obama/Biden 08'
barackobama.com had pictures on their site of the barns.  So did DailyKos.com.  They are beautiful!  You should make an effort to see barns, they really are magnificent!
good job Biden.Go after every vote. I am glad that Obama and Biden are talking about the kitchen table issues. McCain is not. He is basing his campaign on taxes. Before we have to worry about taxes, we need a job. the tax breaks that McCain wants to continue is to companies who ship our jobs overseas. it is not fair. we need a president who will fight for the middle class and create jobs. McCain does not offer this. Second, dems are not offering socialism. this will be the republicans who brought out the banks in wall street. republicans are socialist not democrats.
While as it stands now, Obama can win without Ohio, I would prefer he went into election with a lead in the polls there, just to make sure...
McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responds:

"Terrorist!  Watermelon!  Food stamps!!  Partial Birth Abortion! ! !

JOE THE PLUMBER!!!!!!!!!!!"
I am in another of those counties in Ohio that never even gets noticed by the Democratic Party in most elections, we have went Republican for years and years but the tides are turning.  Tho Obama campaign is not neglecting any county/area in Ohio.  Will my rural, white, conservative county go red? Probably not but I know that we will lose better than we have in the last twenty years and that red will be a lot closer to purple than it has been in the past.  My county may not win Ohio for Obama but we will get our share of the 118,000 votes that we missed by last time.
We're glad you came to Marietta Joe!  We are in hard times in Marietta, plants are closed, we have unions stuggling to hold on, we have more people living in Poverty than most of Ohio, and our schools are underfunded.  We need a President who can change this country and pull us up off the ground so we can move forward into a better future for ourselves and our children.  We will get that with Barack Obama and Joe Biden!
It may not take 118,000 votes to make up the gap.  That is assuming that McCain will do as well as Bush. The polls are close and Ohio could go either way.  If I were a McCain gambling man, which I am not, I would keep in mind the 89 field offices. I watch the field offices in Indiana and I assume they are similar to those in Ohio.  Through voter registration, use of personal phone calls,(not this robocall crap), knocking on doors, talking to neighbors, and getting the youth vote out, and radio ads to farmers who are harvesting crops. There will be nothing left on the table. Like Indiana, Ohio will be close, but if you do want to bet, put your nickle on Obama in Indiana and Ohio.
hey ron brown here is a link to the painted barns.. good job took me 20 secs to find.
This summer at the end of the primaries, my wife and I took our old motor home, who's engine blew up about three weeks later to Libby, Mo. at the request of the Obama campaign. It was certainly not friendly teritory, however we made many great friends up there and won some folks over for Obama in what was clearly a republican county and also had lots of yard signs for the independants there as well. Obama beat out Hillory in that county, though the total vote for democrats was low, but every vote counts and every new friend brings in other new friends and votes. We were inspired by Obama to use our vacation in this way and I think that is why he is doing so well in so many places you wouldn't have expected. Folks want to believe that he is going to have momentom from the elctorate to make much needed changes to our polotics and the way our country operates and how it is seen in the world.
Yet another example of the Obama-Biden ground game chipping away at Red areas to win swing states.

http://democratictribune.com
If McCain wins this election, I think I will lose all hope in this country.  McCain has run such a dishonest, negative, and destructive campaign it is unsettling to say the least.

The fact that people still support him, even when are aware of all this...is disappointing. The fact Republicans seem eager, almost desperate, to believe anything to justify their support for us.  

There is no honor in what McCain's is doing....he should be ashamed.

Good luck to Hillary, Bill, and Joe....I hope you can reach the people looking for a positive and honest message.  I am proud to cast my vote for Obama!!
"In Ohio, the Obama campaign seems somewhat obsessed with numbers"
------------------------------------------------------
Ask Mark Penn and Terry McAuliffe if the Obama campaign's number obsession is something to be mocked...

The Davids (Plouffe and Axelrod) have been brilliant chess-masters for 2 years.  They know what they need, and they know how to make it happen.  Their no-drama methods will be studied for generations.
Well, BO and Joe have my vote, my son's vote, his wife's vote, my sister's vote, her daughter's vote, my 87 year old Father's vote, and my 84 year old Mother's vote in Ohio....we only need 117,993 more to be sure we take our state!  VOTE!!!
MaybeObama really DOES have something to do with the Apocalypse, because if a black man can win in Southern Ohio, it will be such a miracle, the world will come to an end.
I drove to Muncie from northern Indiana to bring my Ball State student home for the weekend & my son, who traveled with me, played "who has more signs, Obama or McCain."  I was pleased to see it was almost even.  In two yards we saw both signs indicating to me that households are divided, just like the country.  Send Biden to stump in rural Indiana towns.  His every man message works.  It'll work here.
This story about Joe the Plumber is utter nonsense. First off, Sen.McCain is the one who dragged his name on TV, during the debates. Now Sen.McCain is claiming he is offended by all the media scrutiny and is blaming Sen.Obama campaign. Yes, Sen.Obama spoke with the so-called plumber. But he did not make him a national celebrity. That was Sen.McCain. As usual, Sen.McCain's campaign is refusing to take responsiblity for their actions and blaming others.
Keep getting out the message that it is strengthening our economy Joe that is important. Do not let up, because the alternative is an economic disaster for the middle class, the elderly, wounded soldiers, and small businesses of our nation. Go Joe!
Go Joe!!!! It is obvious by the actions of this campign that Ohio people are important and "not just the base".  Obama and Biden have visited places most Dems would not have tried, while McCain goes to his Base places and the rallies are shown on TV as though he is doing so well.  

I truly believe that Obama and Biden want real change for this country and not the DC status Quo.  

Hopefully, the people in  these small towns will have an opportunity to be heard and "seen" as they like so many others have not in so many years.

Every person in this country counts, not just a select few.

Rememeber 18 days is still a long time....Dont be complacent and remember to vote!!!  Thats what will really make a difference for ALL OF US!!

Suz, Western NY Obama/Biden Supporter
As a resident of southeastern Ohio - where it's whiter than Wonder Bread - I have to say that Obama signs are all over the place compared to McCain signs.  

Bush won this county by 6 % in 2004, but Obama signs easily outnumber McCain signs 2, if not 3, to 1 here.
It's not about red state or blue state. Wasn't the media listening? It's about the citezens of the USA no matter where they live. I have to be predict but I believe this election is going to be a landslide for Barack Obama and where going to put US back on track. Where everyone has a chance to live out their dream and become wealthy if they want. Not where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. We will lead this great nation back to the top in world standings. I say we because voting for Barack is a vote for us all.
This is exciting.  I am glad to hear that Obama/Biden are working so hard to ask for every vote. I didn't feel that from previous Democratic Candidates.  It does make a difference. People feel as though you really care about them and their struggles. Here in Alabama it feels like a foregone conclusion that the state will vote Republican.  That is how it will probably end up. What is not always known is that this state is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats statewide, and the Democrats rule in the legislature.  If someone could figure it out this state could be very competitive for the democrats nationally.  Otherwise, it may be one hundred years before a presidential candidate visits here too!
Don't worry....the Supreme Court just handed Obama more than that.
Maybe Joe Biden can visit Joe the Plumber and tell him how Obama's plan will REALLY work for him (and advise him to pay his own taxes while he's at it).

Obama/Biden '08!
http://jawillie.blog.com
Come on OHIO!!! OBAMA?BIDEN '08/'12

A RABID REPUBLICAN FAT OLD PREJUDICED WHITE GUY NOW FOR OBAMA/BIDEN
“They go to the heart of someone's judgment and truthfulness. And it is not mean-spirited, it is not negative campaigning to ask someone about their record. It's in fairness to the electorate.” (...said by Sarah Palin of all people!)
Please find out "Who the Real Sarah Palin Is?" why is the media afraid of her? Did she cast  a spell on you guys or what?
This lady is clueless! If this had been a Democratic nominee which pretty much no one has heard of, the media would be all other this person! So... why not her? why has she been given so much slack? Even in the justice system by not answering to subpeonas and such!
Talk about being one sided! She and her "oddly close-knit family" gives us the creeps! Why would she not be investgated more considering... Her and Todd are one heartbeat away from the Presidency! and what can anyone really say they know about her?
As Bush would say, fool me once shame on me, fool me twice, well you won't fool me twice or well, don’t do that. SE Ohio fell for the Gay Marriage scam in 2004 and in 2006 all of Ohio rose up in anger. That anger should propel Ohio into Obama’s column, so long as the scurrilous Republican attacks don’t accomplish this year what the Gay Marriage fear campaign accomplished four years ago.
well...

MSNBC just spent about 50 minutes straight of John McCain advertising...Now Chris Matthews is sayin' what a great guy he is...Is it just me, or does it seem the "on-air" agenda of MSNBC changes with the polls?...It's like, the campaign, at this point..."is what it is"...The polls "are what they are"...to show an entire McCain campaign standard stump speech (without interruption), then sweeten the deal with warm & fuzzy "Isn't McCain a great guy" analysis...
It's like MSNBC NEWS is "trying" to tighten this race by giving more attention to the candidate that's down.
That's what "advertising" is all about...And THAT'S,
why when Democrats have the "rare" advantage of a better fundraising organization..(more money), you "play the game" the way it's "been played on you"
all these years...yep...Karma DOES come back...
My wife and I really enjoyed casting our vote for the Obama/Biden ticket here in NORTH CAROLINA yesterday during this red states (soon to be blue) early voting process.  It just makes so much more sense to do this instead of putting everything in to 1 day.  Now I can get out and volunteer and knock on doors to remind people to exercise their right to vote.
It looks like that Community Organzier thing is coming in handy for Obama.

When all is said and done and Barack Obama is the next president it will be noted by historians that it was a historic election for many reasons. Not the least of which was the organization and discipline displayed by this campaign.

This reflects the steadfastness of the man running to be our next president. I am so glad that Biden and the Clintons have rolled up their sleeves and are helping Obama achieve this goal.

God's speed and safe travels to them.
Just Google Obama Barn. You'll see the photos.
I´m from Ohio. It has been a very long draught in terms of getting Democrats voted in. But, I think that the time is ripe. Lots of Republican friends just don´t believe the Republicans anymore. They have suffered 8 years of George Bush who finally drove it home that the Republicans talk about middle class but have not done much for the middle class in 40 years. The people are tired of watching their tax dollars go to the rich and what does trickle down goes overseas. And, as far as familly values go, they know that Obama, as black as they can paint him in their hearts that don´t feel comfortable with blacks, is more attentive to the poor white than McCain is, and more a family man than McCain has been. And, Joe Biden has been a great pick for the Obama ticket. Sarah Palin reminds us of the girl who works at Berger King...except the girl at Berger King is more honest.
John McCain, is now talking about how bad Pres.Bush
and the republicans have done in eight years in office
Wouldn'T that be a good argument for Democratic candidates to make about republican incumbents that even the Republican Pres. candidate says they did a bad job and shouldn't be reelected
It seems like a lot of places that Obama and Biden are going to that most Democrats don't go to.  Are they really connecting there with the residents?  If they are going to win, I hope so.  
Here is a barn from Port Clinton Ohio.
http://www.ozdigitalllc.com/obama.jpg


THE CURTAIN'S ABOUT TO CLOSE:

If people choose not to vote for a future for themselves or their kids, then so be it. We'll undoubtedly get what we deserve.

It's a shame however that some are so cynical that they're willing to vote on continuing the same failed policies of an incompetent, closed & cut off administration, that's been a constant insult to the intelligence of the American people for another 4 years, rather than stepping out on faith, and moving this Country forward with a Leader {The President of Harvard Law} whose entire adult life has been unequivically dedicated to serving people.

The youth of this Nation are enthusiastically voting for their futures, and it's sad to see that their parents would much rather embrace their fears, and prejudices than to meet their kids half way.

The 'Youth' of this Great Nation are proving more wiser than its 'Elders'.

This Country is about to go in one of two directions.

God forbid Sarah Palin should end up finding herself in the ultimate position of PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!!!

{1 STEP FORWARD, 2 STEPS BACK}
There's two views here. One is to campaign in the most hostile parts of a swing state, to mitigate the losses you'll eventually have there. The other is to campaign in the true swing areas - the ones you can win.

Both are important, but I tend to think as it gets close to election day, you have to try to win the swing areas of a swing state.

Southeast Ohio isn't one of these areas. Its not a place Obama can win, and its sparsely populated for the most part, so even dramatically increasing your numbers there aren't going to give you the state.

I've said before that if I was doing strategy for the Obama campaign, I'd have the Clintons camped out in the Ohio valley - eastern Ohio and western Pa. But that was a September strategy.

This is one of the rare mistakes I believe I've seen in a pretty impressive campaign, but I'm also seeing it in Virginia. This weekend, Obama is in the Shenandoah Valley and McCain is here in Woodbridge.

Woodbridge is part of the swing area of Virginia - Loudoun, western Fairfax and Prince William Counties. Obama should be in this swing area, too.
I've lived in Ohio almost 20 years. It has never felt like a blue state before and it still doesn't. Too many "low-information voters" - that's a nice way of saying ignorant people.
Come on Ohio!!! Help us elect Barack and Joe and let them try to un-do what the Bush/Cheney/Rove regime have done to us these past 8 years! We need intelligent, thoughtful, calm leadership in the White House and neither McCain or Palin fit that bill!
Obama/Biden '08/'12
going where no dem. has gone before is the only way of ADDING support...you don't ADD support by preaching to your choir all the time.
God bless Barack Obama
Send the stinken sarsh pig with the lipsick home
As it should be.  There are so many nooks and crannies in this country that have been ignored for so long that the people feel detached from the process.  I think that's the real anger that the Republican tactics tap into.  These people were also the backbone of the Democratic party until about 1968 and in 1976 became "Reagan Democrats" and never looked back despite the fact that they were voting against their own interests.

Like it or not, the civil rights movement probably spawned that movement.  Maybe this is the dawning of a new day?  A friend of mine that used to be a loyal Republican until he lost his job in 2006 told me that "Trickle down economics sounds good until you finally realize that it's just a nice way of saying pi$$ on you.  I'm tired of getting trickled on."

Maybe with Obama we can put race and the contention of the civil rights era behind us and we can stop voting on hate and all start voting for the greater good again.
Go 'BAMA' Go!
Our economy is  in the toilet, but we don't need Joe the Plumber.  We need Joe from Scranton.
Say what you want about Dean's "50 state strategy" and the Obama campaign reaching for places that are outside the norm for Democrats, that is the strategy which will provide a comfortable margin of victory and a stonger Democratic party down the road.
With me, it's almost beyond the politics now. I am amazed at the sheer force of will behind the Obama campaign. At the beginning of his run I was so skeptical that he could survive the American political gauntlet and felt that if he could get through it at all, it would be a miracle. I had to hide my eyes several times when I thought he was going to be devoured by the controversies and smears.

I read the WP endorsement today with quite a bit of emotion. Here is someone, who despite all the distortions and lies and insurmountable odds against him, is truly winning courageous hearts and intelligent minds.

Exceptional leaders grow stronger under adversity and Obama seems to display this unique genetic quality. It has nothing to do with party or experience. We are in deep trouble as a nation and people instinctively seem to realize how important this election is and what kind of strengths we need in a president.

With few exceptions, America has always been given the right leader at the right time. The time for Obama is now.


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