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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



McCain, Obama tied in Ohio

Posted: Sunday, October 19, 2008 9:30 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls shows Obama leading in the battleground state of Wisconsin, McCain ahead in West Virginia, and the two candidates essentially tied in the swing state of Ohio.

In Wisconsin -- a state the Democrats have won in the last two presidential elections -- Obama has a comfortable 12-point lead, 51%-39%.

Meanwhile, in West Virginia -- a state Republicans have won in the last two presidential elections, but the Obama campaign is now targeting -- McCain is up six points, 47%-41%.

And in Ohio -- the state that decided the last election -- McCain has a slim one-point edge over Obama, 46%-45%.

In each state, per the polls, the economy is overwhelmingly voters' top concern. And the candidate that's leading in each one is seen as better handling the issue. In Wisconsin, Obama bests McCain on the economy, 51%-38%; in West Virginia, it's McCain that's ahead, 44%-41%; and in Ohio they're tied, 45%-45%.

The polls were conducted in each battleground state of 625 likely voters from Oct. 16-17, and they have a margin of error of plus-minus 4%.

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It's really telling that McCain has to defend states that Bush won handily in '04.

Just got the news.  COLLIN POWELL ENDORSES OBAMA!

Obama/Biden '08!
http://jawillie.blog.com
It's getting wonderful out there as Obama narrows the gap in red states once thought safe for the Dumb and Dumber ticket of hate.  I bet that Obama gains even more now that the news is out of his massive fundraising in September and Colin Powell's endorsement.  Landslide City here we come!

Time for some good old liberal wealth redistribution so that the economic playing table gets leveled more towards the poor and middle classes.  Hooray for Robin Hood government!

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
It astounds me that the average working person
can even consider voting for Mccain.
He has not and will never support middle
class America. Look at his voting record!!
Always for big business and the rich. Always
voting against the rights of women and us.
He evem voted against a bill supporting our
veterans.
What he says is not what or who he is.
Listen carefully, voters.
His campaign will go down as the sleeziest,
dirtiest in the history of our country.
Do we want a man of this caliber leading our
country?
Absolutely, not.
DIVIDE AND CONQUER!!!...McCain/Palin strategy
  It won't work!

Colin Powell just endorsed Barack Obama because of his ability to reach out to all and unite people.  We need to work together to bring this country back to greatness.  

It's time to stop judging people by the color of their skin, their ethnicity and/or their religious beliefs!  We live in a free society where we are allowed to make choices.  We don't all have to agree on everything, but we DO have to respect each other.

Barack Obama and Joe Biden are the men we need to run this country as evidenced by the way they've managed their campaign.  Any negativity in their campaign has been IN RESPONSE to McCain/Palin slurs and lies.  

People, take off your blinders, listen with an open mind and elect Obama/Biden in '08!!
Tied in Ohio?  Isn't this an out-lier poll?  Look at the list of poll results on Real Clear Politics. They have 1 tied poll, 1 for McCain by 2 pts and all others for Obama by 2-6pts
After Collin Powell's endorsement of Obama, there is no doubt that most of the leaning McCain or even the Republican traditional states are now in the Obama column. I wouldn't be surprised if Obama is leading McCain and his VP choice by more than 20 points nation-wide.
I am concerned by these tightening polls. I saw one yesterday which shows that Obama has lost his lead in Florida as well. Just last week, he was ahead in Ohio and Florida, so they better be concerned. Maybe the Colin Powell endorsement will perk up the numbers.
The voters can only make up their minds based on what the media feeds us.  FOX news is blatantly pro McCain.  MSNBC  is blatantly pro Obama.  You know what you are being fed when you listen to them.   It is a different story when it comes to the rest of the media.  

The overwhelming majority of media coverage has been DISGUISED as unbiased.  When all you hear is McCain is negative;  McCain does not have a plan; presented by 10 second MEDIA sound bites of Obama supporters. The media chooses what we hear and therefore what we believe.  The media presentation of Obama:  He talks to the people - the when one of the people is critical - the media crucifies him.  He owes taxes - I thought tax info was private and protected by law - So what IRS Obama supporter illegally gave the press this info - where is this outrage?  You bet the media won't question this!  Its negative Obama.  

If McCain had said he would move the military into any country to prevent injustice as Obama did;  Or subsidize the economies of the former Soviet satellite countries (when in the dabate Obama referred to Georgia etc.)  The press would have crucified McCain if he said these things.

I can hear it now:  "Now McCain wants to expand the military and go into any country he wants.  In a time of economic problems in the US McCain wants to help foreign countries because of oil.  And he's so dumb he doesn't even know that the satellite countries were Poland  etc.  We need some one smart like Obama who knows the differance."   But because its Obama that said these things ...  the media says nothing.

I don't understand why Obama bothers spending more money on negative ads than any one in history. He doesn't need to. He's got the press.  Thats all I've been seeing here in West Virginia is Obama's negative ads.
after this week....the nation breaks towards obama big.....I think McGimmick will make a nice addition to the obama cabinet (a sign of working across party lines). If I were obama I would think about putting palin in as energy secretary (keep friends close enemies closer type of thing). She would jump at it and it would silence her as a critic of his administration over the next four years.

Obama/biden 08
My fellow Americans in Ohio. Have you heard how Colin Powell is voting yet? This great American who loves his country very much is voting for Obama. Listen to what he said this morning! He was not speaking as a Repubican or as a Democrat. He is going to vote as an American, using his God given right to do so. This great American Soldier of honor, dignity, and loyalty to his country has made his position very clear. Will the RNC now try to illegally suppress his vote to? My fellow citizens in Ohio! Do not be distracted with the RNC politics of political division. We are Americans who are above all of the unamerican messages of the McCain-Palin Campaign.
The polls cant be trusted,people will say anything when asked but its a diffrent story when you go into the booth. Americans are smart enough to know that John Mccain didnt cause this crazy whacked out economy. They also know that liberal democrats always want to raise taxes to pay for all thier programs.So in the end when it comes to responisble leadership Americans will vote for the experienced John Mccain. America is at a cross roads econmically,militarily,and socialy and we cant afford to gamble with a sweet talking Obama.We need to be strong and we need strong leadership. I think Joe the plumber gets it,and I think Joe citizen gets it,we needs Mccain in the big chair.Just the issue of terrorism should be enough to close the deal,Obama doesnt have the stomach to defend this great land. Tough times require tough leadership not a learn on the job candidate,this time around watch the under dog become the wonder dog.I still never heard Obama denounce his 800,000 dollars to Acorn.
It's not surprising  McCain is ahead in Ohio..Its filled with people like joe the phony plumber.. uneducated, racist,right wing radicals,rednecks.Most people in this country want to move into the 21 century and move this country forward instead of backward like most people in Ohio...
Cindy, polls vary-On the weekly average Obama is always 6-8 points above McCain-in the electorial ap he is in pretty good shape but...
WE NEED TO VOLUNTEER, DONATE AND VOTE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME OUR VOTE MATTERS AND OUR VOICE MATTERS.  IT IS UP TO US TO VOTE ON NOV 4TH TO MAE CHANGE HAPPEN!

Also found an interesting video-I did not know that John McCains family had slaves?  They interviewed the 2nd generation of the slave family.  

Very intersting video-I believe it was on the Huffington Post site this morning-
Can you imagine?  The John McCain comes from a family who had slaves?  Speakes volumes to me!!1

GO OBAMA/BIDEN
.
Released: October 19, 2008
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%

McCain slowly gains on Obama.

UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

McCain now trails Obama by 2.7 points, down from the 3.9 point deficit he faced 24 hours earlier.

Seven-point-one percent of the likely voters surveyed said they remain undecided.

Obama lost five-tenths of a point from yesterday’s report, while McCain gained another six-tenths of a point. It was the third consecutive day in which Obama’s numbers slipped and McCain’s numbers increased.
—————————————————————————————————————-

MCCAIN IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE … 7% OF VOTERS ARE STILL UNCOMMITTED …

REMEMBER —>  OBAMA WANTS TO GIVE YOUR TAX REFUND TO MILLIONS WHO PAY NO TAXES !
.
As an Obama supporter in Tennessee, it is my impression that greed among the wealthy and racist fear among the poor constitute the entire (shameless) Republican platform.  After what the neocons did to Harold Ford in this state- I plan to give more, volunteer more and have already voted for OBAMA/BIDEN '08 in the advance polls.
Don't you wish we all thought this election through like Collin Powell has, sure we do and now get the vote out for Obama.
For many years I have respected Colin Powell, not only for his service to our country but because he is a highly educated man that reserves his opinions until he has all the facts or available information.  I agree with everything he said about the last seven weeks and they are the reason I changed my original idea from Mr. McCain to Mr. Obama.  Thank you Mr. Powell for being honest regardless of your decision.
This is actually some very good news for John McCain!  He's up one point in Ohio and by six points in West Virginia.  The PPP (D) poll just released finds McCain leading 50%-42% in West Virginia showing that the South is very likely to stay with McCain.  The news in Ohio, though, stays pretty good for McCain.  The latest Rasmussen poll finds them tied at 49%-49%, as well.  Obama, it would seem, is overperforming in states like California (Survey USA had him leading by a ridiculously large 59%-35%, which is about double Kerry's or Gore's margins in 2004 and 2000) but underperforming in states like Ohio and Florida.  

As for Colin Powell, I think that his endorsement will be taken with a grain of salt by many Americans due simply to the fact that his position was clearly - and probably almost exclusively - based on race.  It's like Oprah Winfrey trying to sound impartial in her aggressive support of Obama - it just doesn't jive with reality.  Just look at Hollywood and name one black celebrity who supports McCain?
Obama has reawakened a sleeping electorate.
I can see this being the election that draws the largest turnouts in history.
Finally Americans are becoming less complacent and more interested in the next occupant of the White House.
And that can only be good for this country.

I often wonder how different our lives would all be if either McCain or Al Gore had beat out President Bush in 2000.

Obama needs to start attacking McCain and stop being so casually Hawaiian!  He should ask McCain how it is that giving the rich huge tax cuts three times over eight years has not helped the American working poor and middle class people.  He needs to buy some air time and go directly to the people.  By the way, fox gave Mccain free air time this morning, some twenty minutes, interviewed by that puke Chris Wallace.  Do you thinnk so-called fair and balanced Fox is going to give Obama equal time? NOOOO!
@Cindi
"I saw one yesterday which shows that Obama has lost his lead in Florida as well. Just last week, he was ahead in Ohio and Florida, so they better be concerned." Just remember, with all the other states where he's ahead Obama doesn't need Ohio or Florida to win 270 EV. Don't worry - just keep working to help the Obama campaign in any way you can. With 2 weeks left there's still a lot of work to do!

It is only to be expected that the polls would show a tightening of the race. Obama's lead has galvanized many Republicans, and McCain's negative campaigning seems to be making some traction. But unless McCain can come up new negatives, he's probably doing as well now as he's ever going to do. Let's hope that the Powell endorsement helps him with independents and disaffected Republicans. Meanwhile, I urge all Obama supporters to donate to the campaign and volunteer. I made get-out-the vote calls yesterday and will do so again today.
Stephen.. Re:IRS supposedly releasing "Joe the Plumbers" tax information, that's absurd!!  He has a lean placed on his house for non payment of taxes.  That is a matter of public record.  ANYONE can get that information.  McCain put the spotlight on Joe in the debate and Joe did nothing to stop it.  He KNEW what kind of INFO was out there to be EASILY FOUND!!! Do not blame this on Obama.  Another example of the McCain campaign not VETTING SOMEONE PROPERLY!!!!

Lynn from Maine


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