First thoughts: Two weeks out

Posted: Monday, October 20, 2008 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Two weeks out: There are no significant changes to this week’s NBC electoral map. Obama continues to hold a 264-163 lead over McCain, which is unchanged from last week. The slight changes: We moved Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District from Likely McCain to Lean McCain. Also, we almost moved McCain’s home state of Arizona to the Lean column; the state would have been a battleground had McCain not been on the ticket. And keep an eye on South Carolina -- yes, South Carolina. The historic African-American turnout appears to be happening and could make it a single-digit race there. In sum, the political winds are still at Obama’s back. As for the Toss-up states and any that are teetering toward Obama: Colorado, Florida, and Virginia all seem to tilting the Democrat's way, but we haven't moved them yet because all three states have histories of Republican candidates over-performing polls. Unlike other maps, ours is not poll-driven. Polls are only a part of how we make our decisions on our map.

Video: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on this week's changes in the NBC electoral map, Colin Powell's endorsement and the latest NBC/Mason Dixon polls.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, WI (89 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH, VA (111 votes)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (30 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (133 votes)

*** More on the battleground: Over the weekend, new NBC/Mason-Dixon polls showed Obama leading in Wisconsin (51%-39%), McCain ahead in West Virginia (47%-41%), and the two essentially tied in Ohio (McCain 46%, Obama 45%). That Obama Wisconsin lead is bigger than McCain’s West Virginia edge is striking. Think about it: Who would have guessed that at this point in time in the campaign, Obama would have a better shot at winning West Virginia than McCain does in Wisconsin. … Meanwhile, here are the candidates’ schedules for the next few days: McCain is in Missouri today and Pennsylvania tomorrow; Obama is in Florida today and tomorrow, and in Virginia on Wednesday; Biden hops on a bus tour through Colorado on Tuesday and Wednesday; and Palin campaigns in Colorado today and Nevada tomorrow.

*** Colin’s blow: Not only did Colin Powell endorse Obama yesterday on Meet the Press; he also fired the first big shot in the post-election fight for the heart and soul of the Republican Party. “I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years,” he said. “It has moved more to the right than I would like to see it, but that's a choice the party makes.” Win or lose in November, the GOP is going to go through an identity crisis. And especially if McCain loses, it's going to be one ugly period in the history of the Republican Party. It took the GOP some 16 years to truly find its soul post-Goldwater, the last Arizona senator to lead the Republican ticket. By the way, Powell’s rejection of Palin -- “I don't believe she's ready to be president of the United States, which is the job of the vice president” -- will probably lead to more anti-Palin commentary from the right. And a third debate Powell started (which has been incredibly underreported) was his defense of being Muslim in America. He did something that Obama has hesitated to do when attacked for being a Muslim: defended the religion. As for the impact of Powell on voters, it's probably tough to measure. Voters usually don't believe they are ever moved by endorsements but it can reassure soft supporters. Moreover, it's the impact Powell will have on the news cycle with the opinion intelligentsia that should benefit Obama the most over the next few days.

*** So who’s the uniter and who’s the divider? Also, in the stakeout after his MTP appearance, Powell took this shot against GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann, who on Friday on MSNBC’s Hardball accused Obama and Democrats of being anti-America: "And this business of, for example, a congressman from Minnesota, who's going around saying, ‘Let's examine all congressmen to see who is pro-America or not pro-America.’ We have got to stop this kind of nonsense.” Here you have John McCain arguing he can reach across party lines. But Michele Bachmann embraces him while Colin Powell rejects him. It's a horrible coincidence of symbolism for McCain right now. Speaking of Bachmann, it seems Powell wasn't the only Republican taking a shot at her; so did Sarah Palin, who rejected the premise. By the way, Bachmann's Dem foe in Minnesota raised nearly $500,000 off her appearance on Hardball Friday.

*** Big money, big money, no whammies: Here’s another question: Can our campaign finance laws keep up with how Obama's rewriting the fundraising rule book, after we learned yesterday that he raised $150 million in September (which comes out to $5 million per day!!!!)? Just askin': What would the press coverage have been of George W. Bush had he decided to go outside the system for the general election in 2004? In fact, would a President Barack Obama -- should he decide to seek re-election in 2012 -- get away with raising private money for the general or will he have to limit donations to, say, $200 per person to avoid even any appearances of issues? The current campaign finance system is broken. By the way, the irony of Obama's fundraising success is that it is all thanks to McCain. Had the Republican not pushed to get soft money banned, the Democratic Party would not have gone into soft money detox and forced itself to actually figure out how to build a small-donor network.

*** Obama as Karl Marx? Has the McCain campaign made a fundamental mistake in attack politics -- don't charge your opponent with something that doesn't seem to pass the smell test beyond your base? This "socialist" charge is going to be hard for many middle-of-the-road voters to believe, particularly after Powell endorsed his candidacy. Saying Obama’s a "liberal," well there are facts to back that up. But the socialist charge feels like an over-reach, and it may be falling on deaf ears. Of course, with the government getting so involved with our financial markets right now and McCain wanting to use federal money to buy up bad mortgages, it's hard for McCain to back up his socialist charge since he wants a similar amount of government intervention. This has been a problem with many of McCain's attacks on Obama -- they over-reach. The "terrorist" stuff was not believable to a majority of voters; "questionable judgment" would have been an easier sell. Pushing negatives is a subtle business. Sledgehammers rarely work on the presidential level; it's something to be saved for down-ballot races.

*** Prepping for E-Day: Between now and Election Day, we'll be offering a factoid or two that will make your cocktail party life a lot easier. Today's: If Elizabeth Dole loses, it will be the first time since 1952 that a Bush or a Dole is not holding major elective office, either as a governor, senator, congressman, or president. (Prescott Bush was elected to the US Senate in '52).

*** Early voting update: Over the weekend two states -- Texas and Nevada -- started voting without excuse. And today, voters in seven more states -- including battlegrounds Colorado (where Palin is today) and Florida (where Obama and Hillary Clinton are together) -- can go to the polls. Also, Nevada political guru Jon Ralston noted that the early-voting returns in his state seem to be in Dems’ favor. “Of the 25,000-plus who voted early, 15,644 were Democrats and 5,721 were Republicans, according to Clark County Election Department records. If that trends holds, this won’t be a wave; it’ll be a tsunami. Republicans had a lead on the first day of mail ballot tallying -- 5,407 to 4,947. So overall, it’s 20,591 to 11,128.”

*** Biden sounding like a Republican -- or Hillary during the primary season? Did anyone catch what Joe Biden said at a fundraiser last night in the Pacific Northwest? It sounded awfully like warnings the GOP ticket likes to issue. "Mark my words. Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy,” Biden said. “The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. And he’s gonna have to make some really tough - I don’t know what the decision’s gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it’s gonna happen. I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate. And he’s gonna need help."

*** Unleashed: NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger asks: Has the McCain campaign changed courses on keeping Gov. Palin tight lipped? Or is the governor now calling the shots? Beyond her appearance on Saturday Night Live, Palin is being let out of her shell more and more, and seems to be welcoming the opportunity. Last night, she walked right up to cameras on a flatbed truck upon landing in Colorado Springs, and kept taking questions from reporters -- even after aides repeatedly tried to end it. And she’s been doing a lot more satellite interviews with local affiliates as well. With two sessions for traveling reporters Sunday, she has suddenly become the most loquacious of the four major candidates. By comparison, NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones notes that Obama’s last avail was in Toledo on October 14 with the pool; he took five questions. The last "real" avail was the Thursday before the first debate, on September 25.

*** On the trail: McCain campaigns in Missouri, making stops in St. Charles, Columbia, and Belton. Obama is in Florida, holding rallies in Tampa and (along with Hillary Clinton) Orlando. Biden is down, but Palin stumps in Colorado, hitting Colorado Springs, Loveland, and Grand Junction. Cindy McCain, in Pennsylvania, holds a rally in Philadelphia with Rudy Giuliani and another one in Yardley with Giuliani and Arlen Specter. And Bill Clinton is in Nevada, campaigning for Obama in Elko and Reno.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 15 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 80 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 92 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

This will be the longest two weeks ever. What did the 100K crowd in St. Louis and 75K crowd in Kansas City do for you fellow Obama supporters? How about the clear, intelligent and thoughtful endorsement former Secretary of State Powell gave Barack yesterday. Does it madden you as much as me that almost every newscast, blog, etc. has a McCain lead? I guess the only moment when Barack will get his due respect is late in the evening on Nov 4 when he wins

Paul, Nashville, TN (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:24 AM)

The Republicans really think they have something going with their Joe the Phony Plumber socialist wealth redistribution attack. They cleverly laid the populist rhetorical groundwork for this line of BS for decades, and now they’re trying hard to cash in during the final days of the campaign. Sigh. It’s pretty sad to see how easy it is to make regular people feel threatened enough to vote against their own economic interests.

I had a political science professor and practicing professional who reminded us repeatedly during every lecture that all politics boils down to “who gets what.” Any decision about tax policy is a choice about the distribution of wealth. To try and pretend otherwise is nonsense. Republican tax policy has effectively shifted wealth from the bottom 80 percent of the population to the top one percent and racked up enormous national debt in the process.

Small wonder the chosen ones don’t want a redistribution of the current mix, but a Joe in the bottom eighty percent who falls for the tired old socialism line is just acting like a tool. Republican economic policy has given us a new American corporate socialism if you want to use the buzzword. We need to ask whether this redistribution of wealth upward that accelerated over the past eight years has really served the best interest of this country. Or should we forget Joe the Patsy and think about what’s best for the real plumbers and ordinary working people whose productivity and purchasing power drives the economy?

Republicans want to hide the truth behind a bunch of old buzzwords that have lost relevance, and want to hide the fact that we are reaping a bitter economic harvest from the seeds they have sown. Something is trickling down, but it sure doesn’t smell like prosperity. Characterize it any way you want, we need to change direction here and the sooner the better.

jaycee, Ventura, CA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:24 AM)

With two weeks to go it seems that the only real guess now is how big Obama's victory will be. I know that Obama is warning about complacency (as he should be) but to think that Arizona is now only leaning McCain is amazing.

John McCain would (and should) stop trying in states like Wisconsin where he is simply too far behind to compete, but he can't give up another state like he did with Michigan as to appear like he is throwing in the towel all together.

These will be a very exciting two weeks for sure!

Feel free to comment:
http://lastofourkind.blogspot.com

LoOK (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:27 AM)

"GONZO-GATE".... "TROPPER-GATE" , THEY JUST WILL NOT FADE AWAY ! STAY TUNED .

Z (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:28 AM)

Time for Robin Hood government as Barack Obama will take from the rich and greedy and give to the poor and needy. We are in desperate need of wealth redistribution as too much wealth has been redistributed upwards causing this global financial meltdown. Time for the rich and greedy to pay their fair share of taxes finally after getting tax welfare from Ronny Raygunz and his wrong Voo Doo Tinkle Down economics that have left the world all wet from the wrong kind of Goldenb Shower!

I think that the new campaign song for the Democrats should be AC/DC's "Back in Black"! I'm sure the repugnant ones are singing "Hell's Bells" as their Hate Talk Express has been "Thunderstruck" on it's "Highway to Hell"!

Go AC/DC
Go Obama/Biden 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:30 AM)

I just can't wait for this election to be over...so I can resume a normal life.

AllPosters (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:30 AM)

"Moreover, it's the impact Powell will have on the news cycle with the opinion intelligentsia that should Obama the most over the next few days." okay guys, just what are you - talking heads, pundits, commentariats, punditracy or opinion intelligentsia? this is becoming very confusing! i think the msm needs to investigate this in-depth to see who is what lol.

sbv creswell, oregon (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:33 AM)

Georgia, the Dakotas and McCain's own Arizona moving from "likely McCain" to "lean McCain?"

Wow.

Still, there is potential for the electoral count to be close, and while there only seems to be one possible route for a McCain win, that route is still possible. He's got to run the table in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

Its a tough road. He's clearly trailing in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. Arguably trailing in Florida and Nevada. More or less even in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri. And appears to only have a clear lead in Indiana. And he needs them all to win in a squeaker.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:34 AM)

Michelle Bachman is the most despicable excuse for a member of Congress to ever disgrace that hallowed hall. Shame on Minnesota for electing such a shrill shrew who has done nothing but say hateful things. We need to start with her on giving her a loyalty test. She's just McCarthy in a skirt.

I like that Chuch Todd is playing conservative with the electoral map so as not to give us Obama supporters a false sense of security. No resting on our laurels until November 5th. Then we can all weatch old McNasty milling about Washington muttering "Beware the Ides of September".

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:34 AM)

Marxist?

Have you heard Barack in his own words talking about "changing our economic system"?

THAT is why His "alliances" with some of His "associates" is of GREAT concern to the working men & women of America.

I don't think you Obama suporters & His willing minions in the media can grasp that.

Intellectually challenged perhaps??

AmericanInNY, NY (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:35 AM)

What in the world is Biden doing?

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:38 AM)

I don't like Sarah Palin, but kudos to her for rebuking Michelle Bachmann. I'd like to see her rebuke this effigy hanging in Ohio too. As for her doing more interviews, I think this is her realizing that she's going to need press on her side to keep her name relevant in the lower 48 after McCain loses.

Ken, Sterling, VA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:39 AM)

Does Steve Schmidt talk to ANYONE other than Karl Rove? This "socialism" garbage suggests he has ZERO contact with anybody outside the 20% of the country who STILL think Bush is doing a good job. It makes the campaign sound like desperate idiots.

Another Disgusted Republican (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:39 AM)

If McCain hadn't gone so negative people wouldn't have donated so much to Obama. Everytime he went on the attack people called in and donated. Look at the comment sections. It shows there. Every new ad, every new attack was replied by a donation to Obama's campaign.

Annette, Odessa, MO (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:39 AM)

" Last night, she walked right up to cameras on a flatbed truck upon landing in Colorado Springs, and kept taking questions from reporters -- even after aides repeatedly tried to end it. And she’s being doing a lot more satellite interviews with local affiliates as well. With two sessions for traveling reporters Sunday, she has suddenly become the most loquacious of the four major candidates. "
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
You know, I think it is hilarious that after almost 2 months of following Sarah Palin around and reporting her stump speech as if it is news, you are now lauding her for "taking questions" as if she is doing us all a FAVOR - hell - she SHOULD take questions.

This is a woman who only answers what she WANTS to answer, gives nonsensical answers, and WINKS at the camera - and yet you say she so GREAT for FINALLY doing (belatedly) what she should have been doing all along?

Have I mentioned that the media is pathetic lately? 'Cause it is.

P.S. On the campaign finance story - I think it is bloody HYSTERICAL that Senator Obama - the ONLY candidate to refuse lobbyist money, is being lambasted for raising money from private donors.

This just in:

There are more "people" than lobbyists. We are taking OUR government back. When the Republicans had more money and were abusing the 527 system, nobody said BOO. Now all of a sudden, the people have awakened and registered to vote and volunteered and donated money, and now the power brokers wanna complain.

You folks had your chance and you screwed up. Move out of the way, THE PEOPLE are coming through.

P.S. Stop spreading the lie that Senator Obama "pledged" to take public financing. He said on a questionaire that he would IF he coud work out an arrangement with the Republican nominee to control 527 groups. Clearly that agreement wasn't reached, so give those Republican talking points a rest please.

Thank you.

Nashville_fan (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:40 AM)

Shame on your own Pat Buchanan for being the first I have heard and on national television to raise the race card against General Powell. I couldn't believe my ears hearing him proclaim General Powell to have endorsed Obama as a black man wanting a position on a black man's cabinet. Simply incredible! Surely NBC doesn't condone that type of rhetoric.
__________________________________________
P. Buchanan is a washed up old racist loser! He and his sister needs to be fired and put away...the sooner we rid people like this from public eye the better. The General stated clearly why he was endorsing Obama and if it was about race he "would have endorsed him 10 months ago".

Mia in Miami (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:41 AM)

OBAMA isn't a socialist, just a REALIST, i.e. the tax laws need revision.

OBAMA/BIDEN '08/'12

A RABID REPUBLICAN FAT OLD PREDJUDICED UPPER CLASS WHITE GUY NOW FOR OBAMA/BIDEN

RD, ALEXANDRIA, VA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:42 AM)

Obama as Karl Marx: Let's be clear. the McCain campaign wants to talk about Obama shifting wealth to the middle class through taxes, but any talk of socialism really begain when Congress, under a conservative,Republican administration essentially nationalized the banking industry. Now I'm a strong believer in capitalism...without some government regulation, it too can go astray. Bush, Gramm, McCain were for deregulation and we see the results of their poor judgement. If one wants to argue that this country has moved toward socialism, they first must recognize that semi-nationalizing the banking industry was the first step and it happened under a republican administration.

Powell's endorsement: What if Colin Powell would have endorsed John McCain? Conservative republicans like Rush Limbaugh and Pat Buchanan would have praised Powell for his good judgement. You know, party first, not country first. But Powell endorsed Obama! Now the likes of Pat Buchanan calls Powell ungrateful, and introduces race into the equation. There was not one word of race in Powell's endorsement. He gave spot on reason for his decisions. The bottom line is Pat Buchanan is a racist. He is right down there with Rush Limbaugh.

On Friday night Buchanan supported the comments of Michelle Buchmann and Chris Matthews gave him an opportunity to back step on Hardball on Sunday. Buchanan continues to spread bigoted remarks. MSNBC calls him an analyist. He is not. He spreads the smears of Joe McCarthy and has no place on any news network, even Fox.

Ron Indiana (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:42 AM)

Breaking news on MSNMBC tv that the repugnant ones have committed voter registration fraud here in CA and the perpetrator has been arrested. Looks like McNasty has been trying to paint Obama as being involved with voter fraud in order to cover up his involvement in voter fraud. Let's hope this story really dominates the news cycle.

Let's all hope that Mainstream Americans show that they won't be fooled again by the lies of Voo Doo Tinkle Down economics that have left most of us all wet from the wrong kind of Golden Shower. Hip Hip Hooray for wealth redistribution downwards after 28 years of redistributing it upwards.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:47 AM)

I saw the Chris Matthews interview with GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann on Friday and she sounded like a total and complete utter NUT case. There is NO WAY I would ever vote for her and her Democratic opponent in Minnesota should enjoy a healthy win over her. She represents just one of the things that is so wrong with the Republican Party and the reason they are having such an identiy crisis these days. I agree with Colin Powell that the Republicans have gone completely right winged and those people on the fringes are NOT representative of the America I live in. They are completely out of touch with reality most of the time and should NOT be making major policy decisions for the country. I'm hoping someone in the Party will WAKE UP and rethink the Party platform and move it back more toward the middle. I respect Colin Powell and would have to take a closer look at him if he ever decided to run for office, but if he held the same right wing crazy notions that we see from the Republicans, today, he would NOT get my vote. Ms Bachmann should defintiely be replaced by someone who can relate to more people that Bachmann will ever be able to relate to. She's a whacko. Obama/Biden '08/'12

Diane from Illinois (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:47 AM)

Although the GOP is downplaying the Colin endorsement this is HUGE. He said what many of my Republican friends have said in private. Johns decision making is in question with the Palin pick. McGrumpy is spinning a negative campaign because he has nothing to offer the voters.

I'm off to Ft. Lauderdale to see "The Hillary"

Obama 08

Ray C., Coral Springs, FL (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:47 AM)

Colin Powell's endorsement was astonishing in breadth and thoughtfulness. He has, of course, shown courage on the battlefield, and now he's shown courage in the policial arena. Powell outlined very specific problems with the Republican Party and with John McCain's campaign. He joins the list of other prominent Republicans who risked being thrown out of their longtime party to speak truth to power. Bravo for them all.

$150,000,000 is 1/5th of the bailout package! That's amazing! If only our current president could inspire that kind of support among the American people.

I can't wait until November 4th. I'm ready to move forward in restoring America's Promise.

Cindy Lou, TX (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:48 AM)

After Colin Powell endorsed Obama yesterday I believe it truly speaks to whom the best person is for the role of President. Americans are tired of the old boy network and sleezy campaigning. I actually can belive that the "socialist" card is being played, anything that will send fear into peoples minds at such at uncertain time is deemed as okay by the McCain Campaign. When one looks at all the actions the McCain campiagn has taken into Negative territory is it any wonder why so many people may actually be moving the other direction.

Regarding the fundraising, From all accounts by the major networks, the money has come from small donors usually less than $100 dollars, that speaks to what people in this nation are willing to do to ensure that change occurs.

As we come closer to election day people need to keep checking the facts and really think and on November 4th be willing to stand in lines to vote.

This time is way to important and there is to much at stake foe us to take the same traveled yet failed road of the past eight years.

Suz, Independent Western NY Voter Obama/Biden

Suz, western Ny (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:49 AM)

IF Obama is a socialist then that makes McCain a fascist pandering fool..Only fascist are afraid of socialism..
Is McCain really trying to appeal to the fascist of America?... That skin head "Joe the Plumber" must be a part of that too...?
The divide grows deeper and the McCain can't quite find his niche...Really shows McCain's mouth is his
biggest draw back. And at first I thought Sarah Palin could help dig a deeper hole of brain drain politics....The more pure he tries to sound the more purely stupid he becomes...This is "The End" as the Jim Morrison song of many years ago...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-9vPIsE7yQ

BJ, CA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:51 AM)

Yes, Powell's endorsement as well as his repudiation of the looney tunes stuff Mcinsane and surrogates like the crazy McCarthy-wanna-be Congresswoman on Olberman show Powell to be a man of honor and courage who is joining the general exodus of thinking Republicans. One of the reasons Powell endorsed Obama is because of that world crisis Biden was talking about. Obama's calm manner, his eloquence, and his williingness to talk before he fights shows the caliber of the man he is, and his endorsement of Obama shows the caliber of the man HE is.I hope there is a place for Powell in an Obama cabinet.
Sarah Palin is calling the shots because she knows the geezer she's with will lose, and she's trying to salvage a viable political career beyond Alaska. Look for this one to run for Congress in the next few years. She's gotten a taste of the Big Time, and she likes it!

Class Warrior, D.C. (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:51 AM)

I cant wait for Obama to become president. However, what is really going to be interesting is the fallout after Bush leaves office. What gigantic, horrific secrets are going to come pouring out of THAT administration? Were going see pandoras box opened up and all hell break loose!! I suspect we'll get to see just how evil Cheney and Bush really are and all the death and destruction they caused.

j fl (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:51 AM)

I have no doubt Obama's win will be a landslide victory. The media cannot report that, because what would they have to talk about for the next 2 weeks? The money raised says it all - $150,000,000 in one month for Obama! Unlike McCain supporters, we Obama supporters put our $$ behind our candidate. Look at the Obama t-shirts in his rallies. How many McCain t-shirts do you see at McCain/Palin rallies? Again, we Obama supporters buy t-shirts and buttons, unlike the McCain supporters. Obama's win will be a mandate. I believe the Obama win will be the largest landslide victory in U.S. history, and I've been involved in politics and political campaigns for 30 years now. I have never seen such a brillant campaign as the Obama campaign. Change is right around the corner.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08

Cheryl Wilson (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:53 AM)

I went to the Biden rally at Tacoma, Wa. Sunday. It is estimated 12,0000 attendance. I talked to a lot of people that are just sick of the last eight years and want a change for the good and they feel Obama/Biden are the people to make that change. The Gov. Gregoire was there speaking also. She is running for re-election. Her opponent is running as a GOP. He is so ashamed of the Republican party that he will not put an R behind his name. He must think we are too dumb to know R and GOP represent the same.SAD

Seattle Sue (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:57 AM)

<<"The 'terrorist' stuff was not believable to a majority of voters; 'questionable judgment' would have been an easier sell.">>

Ha! If McCain went the "questionable judgment" route, he'd get Sarah Palin thrown in his face left and right.

Erik, Mechanicsburg, PA (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 9:58 AM)

Powell's endorsement comes as no surprise. 95% of blacks are voting for Obama; who says race isn't a factor when it comes to the black vote. Besides, Powell needs a job. It was so predictable.

McCain has the endorsement of FOUR Secretaries of State, and 200 Generals and Admirals. Score: 4 to 1 - McCain.

FL Independent (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:00 AM)

The McCain campaign has got to be the most incompetent, ill advised, incoherent, out of touch campaign in American political history, with all the makings of being far more worse than this current administration.

Just look at the way these two campaigns are run. One is all over the place, 'erratic', unstable, divisive, incompetent, while the other is steady, unifying, ingenius, calculated, quite possibly the best run political campaign ever in the history of our great Nation. This is most definitely indicative of how these two candidates will run this Country...
{And they speak of experience}

Folks, this is indeed a no-brainer...
{WE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GET WHAT WE DESERVE}

(15 SHORT DAYS AWAY)

Droppin' Science, Miami, Fl (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:00 AM)

It's time for a strong third party in America!!!

Republican enthusiasm is about the equivalent of skim milk this year! And why not! McCain's campaign has been stupid. Palin IS stupid and this former Huckabee supporter is voting for Libertarian Bob Barr who will lose along with McCain to the democrat party which just seems to be inevitable with all the young inexperienced voters this year.

dusual tx (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:01 AM)

'...But the socialist charge feels like an over-reach,..'

Gee ?
do you think ?
On McLaughlin Group they were asking if Obama was a 'Socialist' and/or a 'Marxist'

For wanting tax rates on the rich back to where they were BEFORE Bush !!

Pat Buchanon was kind enough to say that Obama was NOT a 'communist'

DEJA VU !!

My wife and I have already voted absentee for Obama
I'm nagging my two daughters to hurry up and complete their absentee ballots
The first Presidential votes for both

Obama / Biden '08
Adults finally in Charge

MSierra, SF (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:01 AM)

Michelle Buchmann is just a long line of racists who are more then willing to spew there hate.She has also been running her jaws about how the housing criss's is the fault of all the poor black folks that took out loans that they couldn't pay back.She is a Poster child for all that is wrong about the repubs party.But her appointent did pick up 600,000 dollars after her Hard ball rant.

jesse St.Paul Minnesota (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:02 AM)

I'ld sooner take Obama's so called socialism, which is really tax breaks to the middle class, over McCain's corporate welfare big business tax cuts, any day!

Pat Huntington NY (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:02 AM)

FR says "was his defense of being Muslim in America. He did something that Obama has hesitated to do when attacked for being a Muslim: defended the religion."

With all due respect, Powell did NOT defend the religion. He, very properly, reminded us that religion, ANY religion, is neither a qualification nor a disqualification for political office.

What Powell did, bless him, was remind us that the constitution - something the RNC seems to forget - has expressly stated that there is to be a separation between church and state.

Thank you Colin Powell.

Independent, TX (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:03 AM)

Why is it that whenever Obama begins talking about tax cuts for the middle class, there is an outcry of "average Joes" criticizing him for wanting to have an atmosphere where we all can have a share of the American pie. These regular people begin defending this as "redistribution of wealth" Yet when there is a 700 billion+ bailout there is hardly a mention that this is the actual Welfare system where large banks have taxpayers hard earned wages "redistibuted" the their coffers. they mention socialist and redistribution as a diversion from the truth.Don't fall for it America what we do know is that what we have done up to now has not worked. It is time for something different

Kalimba, NEW YORK NY (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:05 AM)

If Obama dislikes being labeled a socialist, he should stop espousing socialist principles.

It is more than spreading the wealth; it is government takeover of our work and family lives. Card Check, which is opposed by George McGovern, for heaven's sake, would strip the right to a secret ballot from workers, forcing them into unions. The Freedom of Choice Act, which would codify Roe v. Wade into federal statute, would strip states of the right to enforce parental notification laws, and reinstate partial birth abortions where they have been outlawed.

There are many reasons to question what an Obama presidency would do to this country. Even Joe Biden now seems to be warning us against voting for him-why else would he be warning voters about the inevitable attacks that will come early in his presidency? I, for one, have known, based on their history, that Al Queda will attack no matter who is elected-that is their pattern for the last 12 years, and they WILL test the mettle of whoever is elected.

Just what, exactly, do you think Obama will do? Negotiate with them? Hand it over to the U.N.? Maybe he will speak sternly-three or more times, each time saying something different, as he did when Russia invaded Georgia. Or maybe he'll go body surfing in Hawaii again.

Think, people. If he had more brains than hubris, Obama would have run for governor of Illinois, and THEN run for president.

The world is too dangerous and complicated to elect Obama simply because he feels entitled to be president.

no joe, no bo, nj (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:06 AM)

Palin may answer questions now but do any of them make any sense? Every, and I mean every, quote I have seen from her is a bunch of mish mash nonsense that isn't even in sentence form! She is totally not ready for ANY office, not just the VP office! That kind of lack of intellect or curiosity in the world might work for Alaskans but it won't cut it down here in the lower 48 OR Hawaii!!

LB, Virginia (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:08 AM)

*** Colin’s blow: ? What a choice of title First Read. You thought that you were being clever with this title, but this is an old Saturday Night Live joke. I think that this was an unfortunate choice for a title for this article.

Resorting to poop jokes to attract readers. Wow, I think that you all need a well deserved break.

Ms.Renee, Chicago (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:08 AM)

We are used to the media/ap showing their support
for the republicans. They have ignored, covered up
and distorted Mccain/palins mistakes, faults,
past associates, and lies.
They do not give us, the voters, any credit for
intelligence.
I do not watch CNN anymore. MSNBC is better, but
still lets their bias creep through.

katiec (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:12 AM)

Notice all four candidates are in red states. That's right, look again, all four candidates are campaigning in states that W won in 2004.

The $150 Million is astounding and probably a result of people like me getting disgusted with McCain and Palin's comments.

Powell's endorsement of Obama carried a tough indictment of McCain. Powell in one interview rescinded the charges of 'socialism', 'not ready to lead', 'not willing to reach across the aisle', and 'too liberal'. In fact, he went as far as to say his own party had gotten too extreme and was using disgusting tactics.

Early voting states today in a bunch of states, start making calls.

And First Read, please stop with the snarky 'just askin' comments, they're not having the effect you intend, I promise.

http://www.rodneyhopper.com

Rodney Hopper, Waxahachie, TX (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:12 AM)

You know, it's one thing to be cautious with your electoral maps and not hhaving them be 'poll diriven'. It's quite another to, two weeks out, completely ignore STABLE polling in places like Colorado and Virginia, which have shown Obama leads outside the margins for the past two weeks, and, were it the other way around, would most certainly be in the 'leans' category by now. while your map isn't 'poll driven', it ceertainly seems to be 'GOP Spin' driven, or worse, 'ratings for pre-election coverage' driven. How long do you think you can wait before you become merelya map that states the obvious.

Douglas (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:13 AM)

I was appalled at Pat Buchanan's racist remarks on Hardball Sunday evening. Raising the race card by stating that Gen Colin Powell a black man was looking for a position on a Black Man's cabinet.

Pat Buchanan is not an analyst. He is a bigot and a racist and I will not watch ANY show where Pat is listed as a guest.

He was quick to tell Joan of Salon.com to "Hold It" while he was speaking when she tried to interject a comment but he had no problem speaking over her when it was her turn to speak.

Joan did apologize to Pat for interjecting but I saw no such apology from Pat.

Pat in the past has also told other speaker to "Shut UP'

Pat Pukechanan is so full of himself that he thinks he is the only person that has snything of importance or value to say.

He belongs on FOX with the likes of Sean Hannity

Carol, FL (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:15 AM)

"I don't like Sarah Palin, but kudos to her for rebuking Michelle Bachmann. I'd like to see her rebuke this effigy hanging in Ohio too."

Yes, this is true. But one must realize that Governor Palin and Senator McCain have helped create an atmosphere where this type of speech and behavior is acceptable.

Personally, I believe that John Lewis was absolutely right. Remember, he did say "George Wallace never threw a bomb. He never fired a gun, but he created the climate and the conditions that encouraged vicious attacks against innocent Americans who only desired to exercise their constitutional rights. Because of this atmosphere of hate, four little girls were killed one Sunday morning when a church was bombed in Birmingham, Alabama. As public figures with the power to influence and persuade, Sen. McCain and Governor Palin are playing with fire, and if they are not careful, that fire will consume us all."

That same Wallace atmosphere has been created by the McCain campaign. It is an atmosphere that has sought to divide this country along race, religious, and class lines. Division can destroy this country from within. This is the 21st Century - a time for growth and intellectual curiosity. Not for clinging to old ideas and prejudices.

Senator Obama has done everything to appeal to the best nature of Americans. When (or if) he is elected, we should be called upon to continue seeking growth as human beings and as a country - growth toward what is decent and ethical.

Now is the time to use our vote for what is decent about this country - a vote for a better future - a vote for all Americans. I know that my vote will be cast for Senator Obama.

Mrs J - Illinois (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:18 AM)

This is a small thing but it bugs me. You talk about Gov Palin's availability to the press and then you compare it to Sen Obama's. Gov Palin is not running for President, Sen Obama is. So why compare the two? Gov Palin should be compared with Sen Biden, the other candidate for VP. Sen Obama should be compared with Sen McCain, the other candidate for President.
Apples to apples, etc.

Even though Sen McCain has let himself be overshadowed by Gov Palin, in the interest of accuracy, we have to remember that Sen McCain is the candidate for President, not Gov Palin.

Dorothy, Illinois (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:18 AM)

How about instead of McCain telling me about what Senator Obama is doing and has associated with, to please tell me in explicit details of how he is going to run the country and get us out of this mess.....No More Bull!!!!!

The Real Truth!!! (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:19 AM)

Obama is ACORN and ACORN is Obama. They are one and the same and intimidation and manipulation are the name of the game.

Obama is two people ... the soft-spoken manipulator who can sell you the chrome off a trailer hitch ... and the radical socialist in a suit and tie.

Full Moon (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:20 AM)

I cannot wait for Palin to go back to Alaska and finally put her children back in school where they belong.

Barbara, NC (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:20 AM)

Speaking of Bachmann, it seems Powell wasn't the only Republican taking a shot at her; so did Sarah Palin, who rejected the premise.

Could you provide a quote, or explain where Palin rebuked Bachmann. I missed that. I did see Palin retreat from her earlier statement regarding Pro-America areas of the country (after Biden called her out on it) But I didn't hear her rebuke Bachmann, and would love to learn where this happened, and what specifically Palin said.

Also, when are you going to put Iowa in likely Obama as opposed to merely lean Obama?

Molly, Iowa City (Sent Monday, October 20, 2008 10:20 AM)

Next >>

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=1570521