New Florida, Virginia polls

Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:00 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: States

From NBC's Mark Murray
Mason-Dixon has released new polls for the battlegrounds of Florida and Virginia -- and they show tight races in these two states.

In Florida, McCain holds a narrow one-point lead over Obama, 46%-45%. Earlier this month, another Mason-Dixon poll showed Obama with a two-point advantage in the Sunshine State, 48%-46%.

And in Virginia, Obama is up two points, 47%-45%; earlier this month, McCain was ahead by three in the state, 48%-45%.

The polls were conducted in each state from October 20-21, and they both have margin of errors of plus-minus 4%.

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Comments

Obama will win both because like me the rest of America has had their eyes opened these last couple weeks. Go Obama/Biden!

Full Moon (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:05 PM)

My prediction is that he'll get VA. He doesn't really need FL at this point, since he's in the lead or tied in virtually all of the other toss ups, and he only needs to win one of them for the POTUS (all things remaining the same on election day).

Going back to Silly Sarah's $150k wardrobe, does Joe [not] the Plumber spend that much on clothing? I'm just saying, they're supposed to be representing the average "Joe" here. I don't know about you, but somehow I doubt that Joe can spell Neiman Marcus, let alone afford to shop there.

Just sayin' (dropping the "g", letting out my inner MAVERICK).

Obama/Biden '08!
http://jawillie.blog.com

jawillie, Philadelphia, PA. (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:06 PM)

I live in jacksonville, FL and me and several of my friends voted yesterday. Obama/Biden '08

Adam, Jacksonville Fl (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:09 PM)

Would you call Palin's $150K shopping spree a "PORK BARREL" wardrobe?

ujw, ny (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:13 PM)

Florida,ahhhhhhh good old Florida.What are the chance of a fair result from this state,now that slim has left.Virginia,the state that has commies living in the north,according to McCains own brother.And the southern half is where the real Virginians live according to McCains talkies.I will take this to mean that some black folks live in the northern half and the white folks live in the southern half.Now thats what I call bringing the country together.

jesse St.Paul Minnesota (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:14 PM)

thanks Adam for voting---
I think it will turn out this way
273 for Obama
265 for McCain

Sophia Beck Laramie WY (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:14 PM)

VOTE EARLY!!!!!!!!!

VOTE TODAY IF YOU CAN! Every vote FOR REAL CHANGE is needed and every vote is INTEGRAL and IMPORTANT. Obama supporters have a collective enthusiasm on their side now get out and USE IT! Help youth with a kick in the butt and seniors who need assistance. Offer up a GET OUT & VOTE get-together. Drive FIRST TIME voters to the polls. Have a JUST VOTED party afterward. Spread the enthusiasm. Independents will see the GOP BS and are moving toward enthusiasm and positive change. BUILD the MOMENTUM but BRING IT TO THE POLLS!!!!

VOTE EARLY!!!!!!!!!

Obama/Biden 08 - I just can't wait for real and honest change!!!!!!!!!!

Libratine (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:15 PM)

I don't buy your 1 pt leade of McBush in Florida. NOPE!

rosie, crestview, fl (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:16 PM)

I'll wait until I see several polls that offer these numbers before I believe them one way or the other. There is too much variance in them to take them so seriously.

Suz in KS (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:18 PM)

thanks Adam for voting---
I think it will turn out this way
273 for Obama
265 for McCain

GO VOTE-WE HAVE A VOICE, WE HAVE VOTE AND WE CAN MAKE CHANGE HAPPEN
I VOTED FOR OBAMA/BIDEN!

Sophia Beck Laramie WY (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:18 PM)

Always interesting how several polls can show Obama up by 10 in Virginia and yet Mason-Dixon shows him up by only two.

And Mason-Dixon is a reputable polling organization, but still, it almost sounds like an outlier given the other numbers.

It would be interesting to compare the voter models being used by each, because my guess is that's where we're seeing the disparity.

Note of caution - Mason-Dixon's model could be better than everyone else's. That was the problem in New Hampshire during the Democratic primary there. Almost everyone seemed to have the same, incorrect model that undercut the percentage of female voters.

Still as a tracking device, you look at Mason-Dixon then versus Mason-Dixon now and you see a five-point swing. Some of that could be margin of error stuff, but generally speaking it looks like a swing in Obama's direction, given that we're seeing a move toward Obama pretty much everywhere else.

I noticed on electoral maps people were starting to give in and paint the state blue over the last week or so. This poll may cause some to move Virginia back to a toss-up status.

Paul Miller, Woodbridge, VA (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:19 PM)

McCain is clearly the right man to handle the economic crisis in this country....look at how well he is managing the economic crisis in his own campaign. Uh, hello...?

Bethany, Salt Lake City, UT (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:19 PM)

keeping my fingers crossed for BOTH Va. and Fl. for

OBAMA / BIDEN '08

Carol, Phoenix, AZ (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:20 PM)

Look at demographics of the poll for VA is off. Too many men (50%-50% split), too many whites (and too few blacks). I understand polling is hard, but it would be nice to get the basics right. Otherwise it shows what every other poll is showing-- similar splits among Dems and Reps and big lead among independents for Obama.

Greg, D.C. (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:21 PM)

The Dream ends in 13 days. Just say NO to BO and Joe. It's been a great exercise in getting people interested in this country, FOR A CHANGE. It's been good to hear from the sleepers of the past few decades. From the party of Lincoln!

Mike Johnston, Beaver Falls, PA (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:21 PM)

I live in Jacksonville too and several of my friends voted Mccain..

McCain/Palin '08

Jeff, Florida (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:23 PM)

Obama and his campaign are still fighting for EVERY VOTE! They need to stay focused and vigilant.

The Republicans are trying to steal this thing. Just witness what is happening in WV with the TOUCH SCREEN machines uploading the ballots as REP when the vote was cast as DEM. This has been confirmed by the poll worker.

Comspiracy Theorists DIEBOLD (Republican connected)is at work here. Forget ACORN, this is real voter fraud.

Sheila Robinson, Baltimore, MD (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:26 PM)

Looks like old habits die hard in the South.

All the more reason to VOTE VOTE VOTE!

newshound nh (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:26 PM)

With the wheels flying off the Straight Talk Express, I suspect that these will trend toward Obama. Floridians aren't going to like that they're enduring one of the highest rates of foreclosure while Palin's children fly around to snow machine races at the taxpayers' expense. Nor will they condone outrageous spending for clothes and accessories.

spend baby spend (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:26 PM)

fixed polling agin in Florida!

rjn (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:27 PM)

Obama will win both!

Alison, FL (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:28 PM)

Florida will go Obama...early voting will make a huge difference as will increased turnout vs. '04 and '00. And don't discount "The Great Schlep!"

Steve, Minneapolis, MN (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:28 PM)

HIGHLANDS COUNTY FL, RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE MANY FOR DEMS, AND REP NO SURE WHO THERE GOING TO VOTE FORE, AND THEY ARE THE 15% THAT LOVE BUSH!!!!

DANIEL SEBRING FL (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:28 PM)

It should be a landslide but popular vote is not the key. The Obama campaign has amazed me from the start.
I am sure they know excactly how many electoral votes they have and how to secure what they need. going to see his Grandmaother will not hurt Obama, Palin's gaffe about the trip will be interesting.

Elmer, Seattle (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:28 PM)

I also live in Fl. There were alot of voters there voting for McCain and were saying so. I voted for Obama. I am hoping that many others are as well. We need everyone to vote. Please get out and vote for Obama/Biden. We can't do this without you.

CB Venice Fl (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:28 PM)

If McCain keeps wasting his time and money in PA, he will lose FL - which would result in a net -6 loss of electoral votes.

Obama's ground game is suffocating him as we near the finish line. Watch the returns in my state, Indiana, on November 4. You will be shocked as it turns Blue...

http://democratictribune.com

Publisher, Tipton, IN (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:29 PM)

People think about who and what your voting for ! Obama and his plans aren't good for America and it's economy !

Fl voter (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:29 PM)

The problem is that American's listen to the media and are uneducated about the actual issues. The news says Obama is better, then they poll 1000 democrats and then say he is ahead. The bottom line is McCain is what we need as a leader right now. Obama, though educated, is absolutly not qualified or ready to lead a nation. His far left ideas will send this country spinning so far down that we will have a tough time pulling out after 4 yrs of his administration. Two years ago the democrats took contol of the House and Senate and now look at us.....do we really want or can we really afford a democratic president. Regardless of your feeling for W., McCain is needed right now!

john, philadelphia, pa (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:31 PM)

Yesterday's (deluge of) polls had mostly good news for Obama, who took the lead in a number of red states like North Carolina and Indiana. Full roundup: http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/10/21/so-much-for-that-tightening/

Dan, NY (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:32 PM)

That's interesting because the data on RealClearPolitics.com shows a VERY different picture for Virginia, with Obama up by 6 to 10 points.

Zami, Manchester, CT (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:32 PM)

The Republican's are NOT even thinking about all of us Florida Republican's who are voting for Obama. There are so many of us and they are definitely not counting on it. I have been called a plant for "Move On" and ignored. I am so happy to vote for the better candidate, Barack Obama.

Meg Rodriguez, Clearwater, Florida (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:33 PM)

I can't understand why anyone would want to continue the path we are on here in this wonderful and great country by voting for McCain.

MR, Diamond Bar (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:33 PM)

One can only hope that America will wake up and realize that Obama is what this country needs. We need a total shake up to get us back on the right track.

Virgina and Florida we need you and we need you now to vote Obama/Biden. We are countng on you, so get out and vote.

Obama/Biden 08!!

Cathy, Asheville, NC (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:34 PM)

Mason/Dixon has had a decent Republican lean this cycle so I'd read that as Obam +2 in FL and +5 in VA.

Rod, Louisville, KY (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:35 PM)

Mason Dixon seems to have more of a Republican slant and these two polls both show a fairly large number of undecided voters. I think Obama can carry both states but has a better chance in Virgina than Florida as Republicans seemed to over perform there in 2004, possibly because of a better absentee program they have used for a long time.

EJ, Weterloo, Iowa (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:35 PM)

Why isn't there more outrage regarding the fact that voters names are being removed from the list. There is a report that for ever voter registered, two are removed. Why is there no outcry? What are the democrats doing to address this?

Ken, Grand Island, NY (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:35 PM)

How any intelligent American voter can support
Mccain/palin is a question worth asking.
They have spewed one lie after another,
distorted, attacked and thrown all honor
and integrity away.
Mccain lacks judgement, just one example, Palin,
jumped from one erratic solution to another
in the financial crisis, has no acceptable
policies and does not and will never support
middle class America.
They instigate and support anger, fear and unrest
in their rallies, trying to divide our country
rather than unite.
Mccains horrible voting record, against equal
pay, no to minimum wage increase, against benefits
for veterans and 90% support of Bush, repbulican
diasterous policies proves he is totally
inadequate, incapable of leading our country.

katiec Pekin, IL (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:37 PM)

I just gotta say this -- Joe Biden was not saying that electing Obama will lead to an "event" or crisis. Historically speaking, all 1st term presidents face a suprise event early on in their administration. But, I'm sure as queen of the senate, Palin can get some real excitin' policy changes goin' there to get one goin'.

BTW, my state, MN, doesn't tax clothing so Gov Palin and the Repubs got quite the deals at Neiman Marcus!

I'd really like the Repubs to quit sending me mail. How many times do I have to call them and ask? Maybe they'll quit 11/05/08.

Bailey Quarters, Twin Cities, MN (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:38 PM)

Did I miss something...Did OBAMA win? He sure acts like he did!

karen Nash Winston-salem nc (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:38 PM)

why do you have to approve every blog? Fox does not

karen Nash Winston-salem nc (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:39 PM)

Will you Obama operatives stop posting your stupid comments like , "I just voted yesterday with all my friends and it felt good". If you have to work so hard to get your people to vote it just shows how uninformed your constituency is. However, I guess that's the way you like them.

As for all the excitement about the latest polls, don't forget that all McCain has to do is win the battleground states. All of which are within a few points and ALL of which Bush won each of the last two years. So go ahead and celebrate your 40 point margins in CA, NY and Illinois that inflate the national polls, you'll be scratching your head come November 4th.

McCain-Palin 2008

Andrew, Monticello, NY (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:39 PM)

If you have already voted (thank you), but please help get out the rest of the vote -- knock on doors, make calls, drive people to the polls -- lets make sure that Florida goes BLUE. Go Obama!

ann, waterford, MI (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:42 PM)

The Mason Dixon Poll is so far off from other State polls one has to wonder as to the accuracy of this poll. Noted is the margin of error of +-4 percentage points in this poll when most polls have an average margin of error of +-2.5 or 3 percentage points.

Obama has been up by as many as 8 - 10 points in Virgina recently by most polls. This poll is showing he is up by 2 points. It cannot be accurate.

Obama will also win Florida so we know that this 1 point lead by McCain in this poll is also inaccurate.

But let's get out the VOTE folks! Don't let up. Use the next couple of weeks to push and push and push and push for Obama. Grab your neighbors and head to the polls. Let's give Obama a true mandate across this nation on Nov. 4.

C A, Tuscaloosa, AL (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:42 PM)

The problem with Florida is that most of the retirees are rich people from up North. Somehow, they miss the fact that McCain wants to tax their health care and cut their Medicare and Social Security benefits.

Wake up people!

Paul in Clearwater, Florida (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:42 PM)

These polls seem to have some sort of a McCain bias because other state polls taken at the same time are more favorable to Obama. If Obama keeps the Kerry states, and retains Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, where he enjoys significant leads at this time, he doesn't need either Florida or Virginia. I do agree that Virginia looks really positive for Obama at this time.

Glen Huntsberger, Santa Rosa, CA (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:43 PM)

This is going to be the longest 13 days of my life.

I am really worried about all these REPUBLICAN attempts at voter fraud. Barack has to have huge leads everywhere to prevent these purges and voter suppression from making the difference AGAIN.

Oscar, Rio Vista CA (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:43 PM)

"Trickle Down" economics did not work for Herbert Hover in 1930 and will not work for McCain in 2008.
Damn John, even monkeys learn.
Obama/Biden '08

john shaffer (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:43 PM)

Polls are just a fancy word for guessing. We need to make sure we get out the vote for Obama. The voter registration drive was great but it won't do any good if we don't vote. Please find your local Obama Campaign Office and volunteer for a couple hours for GOTV (Get Out The Vote) Nov. 1st - Election Day.
Yes We Can
Yes WE WILL

Alberto in Lansing MI (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:44 PM)

M/D has undercounted Obama in quite a few polls now. Remember, they were the only ones pushing McCain being ahead in VA last month when virtually every other poll has an Obama double digit lead.

http://www.rodneyhopper.com

Rodney Hopper, Waxahachie, TX (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:46 PM)

Colorado, Colorado, Colorado... Mark my words.

It's all Obama needs, and should get easily. everything else is gravy. Not that I'm against gravy mind you.

Rob Harris, Buckeye, AZ (Sent Wednesday, October 22, 2008 12:46 PM)

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