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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts: Double digits

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008 9:12 AM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Swing states swinging to Obama
: Most of the national polls -- including our NBC/WSJ survey -- are now showing Obama with a double-digit national lead. And here come a slew of brand-new state polls that also suggest Obama is in command of this presidential contest. The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%). The lone state survey that shows McCain ahead: CNN/Time’s West Virginia poll, where McCain’s nine (53%-44%).

Video: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the Midwest battleground polls showing huge leads for Democrat Barack Obama.

*** McCain vs. Bush: Be sure not to miss McCain’s exclusive interview with the Washington Times, in which the Arizona senator lashes out at President Bush. “Sen. John McCain on Wednesday blasted President Bush for building a mountain of debt for future generations, failing to pay for expanding Medicare and abusing executive powers, leveling his strongest criticism to date of an administration whose unpopularity may be dragging the Republican Party to the brink of a massive electoral defeat. ‘We just let things get completely out of hand,’ he said of his own party's rule in the past eight years.” A very senior GOP strategist emails Politico’s Mike Allen in response: “Lashing out at past Republican congresses instead of Pelosi and Reid, and echoing your opponent's attacks on you instead of attacking your opponent, and spending 150,000 hard dollars on designer clothes when congressional Republicans are struggling for money, and when your senior campaign staff are blaming each other for the loss in The New York Times [Magazine] 10 days before the election, you’re not doing much to energize your supporters.” Oh snap.

*** So when will we see those medical records? In Brian Williams’ interview with the GOP ticket yesterday, Palin announced that she would agree to release her medical records. “If that will allow some curiosity seekers, perhaps, to have one more thing that they either check the box off that they can find something to criticize or to rest them assured over. I'm healthy, happy, I've had five kids. That’s going to be in the medical records -- never seriously ill or hurt. You'll see that in the medical records.”

*** The dangers of parachuting in: Spending part of the day with the McCain-Palin campaign for yesterday’s interview was both an enviable and unenviable task. It's always tricky to over-read exhaustion. The campaign pushed back hard on an initial impression one of us said on MSNBC -- that there was a lack of chemistry between McCain and Palin during the interview -- and cautioned us not to read too much into the campaign soup that's exhaustion, mixed with a couple of tough news days for the ticket, some bad poll numbers, a healthy skepticism of the press, a pretty tough New York Times Magazine piece, and the fact that the two candidates don't spend every day together. It was the same dynamic as you might see with Obama and Biden, except they have the luxury of having the motivation of positive news on their side, which can loosen folks up. Bottom line: The McCain campaign appears a bit tight (which is understandable given where we are in the campaign). But there is a bunker mentality that folks like us, when we parachute in, can miss. It's a good lesson for all of us: Always be cautious from over-analyzing a situation; it can be dangerous punditry.

*** One other point: This is not an easy time for the trailing campaign, as more and more outsiders begin pointing fingers and assigning blame. It's human nature to look over your shoulder and wonder what's coming next. The McCain campaign team seems to be a more cohesive bunch than Kerry’s, Gore’s or Dole’s, so the backbiting might be held to a minimum. But it doesn't make it any easier to read these pre-bituaries.

*** When politics and baseball collide: GOP strategist Craig Shirley emails First Read this thought: “If you are looking to complete the circle between 1980 and 2008, consider this: The last time the Phillies were in the World Series was … 1980, when they beat the Royals in five. Reagan himself defied history because the guideline for the 20th century was when an American League team won the series, the GOP won the presidency, and when the National League team won the Series, a Democrat won the White House.” *** UPDATE *** Shirley meant to say the last time the Phillies were in the World Series AND won.

*** Fun fact of the day: The end of Yale's reign, courtesy of NBC's Robert Windrem and Garrett Haake: This will be the first time in 40 years that Yale will not have one of its former students on the ballot as president or vice president. Not since Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew battled Hubert H. Humphrey and Edmund Muskie in 1968 has Yale been shut out. Though Yale has had the last three presidents (and five overall), Harvard (where Obama went to law school) boasts the most presidents -- seven. And the only president to boast of degrees from both... George W. Bush. As for John McCain, per NBC's Abby Livingston, he would be only the second Naval Academy graduate to rise to commander in chief. The other was Jimmy Carter.

*** On the trail: McCain embarks on a “Joe the Plumber” bus tour across Florida. Obama holds a rally in Indianapolis before heading to Hawaii to visit his seriously ill grandmother. Biden is in North Carolina, hitting rallies in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, and Raleigh. And Palin holds rallies in Troy, OH and Beaver, OH.
 
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 12 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 77 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 89 days
 
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In Brian Williams’ interview with the GOP ticket yesterday, Palin announced that she would agree to release her medical records.
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I wouldn't hold my breath...

http://thepajamapundit.com/
Biden released his medical records, well, except his brain scans. But they showed nothing was there anyway, so why bother.
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VOTE!!!!!!   VOTE!!!!!!   VOTE!!!!!!
10 points nationally by most polls. That really says something. Considering those don't poll younger voters this race may be even farther apart than that!

http://lastofourkind.blogspot.com
A FOREIGN AFFAIR
Jonathan Freedland, "The Guardian" on the upcoming US election:

"If Sarah Palin defies the conventional wisdom that says elections are determined by the top of the ticket, and somehow wins this for McCain, what will be the reaction? Yes, blue - state America will go into mourning once again, feeling estranged in its own country. A generation of young Americans - who back Obama in big numbers - will turn cynical, concluding that politics doesn't work after all. And, most depressing, many African - Americans will decide that if even Barack Obama - with all his conspicuous gifts - could not win, then no black man can ever be elected president.

But what of the rest of the world? This is the reaction I fear most. For Obama has stirred an excitement around the globe unmatched by any American politician in living memory. Polling in Germany , France, Britain and Russia shows that Obama would win by whopping majorities, with the pattern repeated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America . If November 4 were a global ballot, Obama would win it handsomely. If the free world could choose its
leader, it would be Barack Obama.

The crowd of 200,000 that rallied to hear him in Berlin in July did so not only because of his charisma, but also because they know he, like the majority of the world's population, opposed the Iraq war. McCain supported it, peddling the lie that Saddam was linked to 9/11. Non - Americans sense that Obama will not ride roughshod over the international system but will treat alliances and global institutions seriously: McCain wants to bypass the United Nations in favour of a US - friendly League of Democracies. McCain might talk a good game on climate change, but a repeated floor chant at the Republican convention was "Drill, baby, drill!", as if the solution to global warming were not a radical rethink of the US's entire energy system but more offshore oil rigs.

If Americans choose McCain, they will be turning their back on the rest of the world, choosing to show us four more years of the Bush - Cheney finger. And I predict a deeply unpleasant shift.

Until now, anti - Americanism has been exaggerated and much misunderstood: outside a leftist hardcore, it has mostly been anti - Bushism, opposition to this specific administration. But if McCain wins in November, that might well change. Suddenly Europeans and others will conclude that their dispute is with not only one ruling clique, but Americans themselves. For it will have been the American people, not the politicians, who will have passed up a once -
in - a - generation chance for a fresh start - a fresh start the world is yearning for.

And the manner of that decision will matter, too. If it is deemed to have been about race - that Obama was rejected because of his colour - the world's verdict will be harsh. In that circumstance, Slate's Jacob Weisberg wrote recently, international opinion would conclude that "the United States had its day, but in the end couldn't put its own self - interest ahead of its crazy irrationality over race.

Even if it's not ethnic prejudice, but some other aspect of the culture wars, that proves decisive, the point still holds. For America to make a decision as grave as this one - while the planet boils and with the US fighting two wars - on the trivial basis that a hockey mom is likable and seems down to earth, would be to convey a lack of seriousness, a fleeing from reality, that does indeed suggest a nation in, to quote Weisberg, "historical decline". Let's not forget,McCain's campaign manager boasts that this election is "not about the issues."

Of course I know that even to mention Obama's support around the world is to hurt him. Incredibly, that large Berlin crowd damaged Obama at home, branding him the "candidate of Europe " and making him seem less of a patriotic American. But what does that say about today's America , that the world's esteem is now unwanted? If Americans reject Obama, they will be sending the clearest possible message to the rest of us - and, make no mistake, we shall hear it."
I thought Grandma was "gravely ill" and The One was going to see her on her death bed? So what's Obama doing dancing on Ellen Degenerates show instead?
"Joe the Plumber" is a loser deadbeat taxpayer and McNasty plant who couldn't get the job done in flustering Barack.  How childish McNasty and the Wicked Witch have become wasting time making up names and occupations because they don't have anything intelligent to say about how to fix the economy.

Thanks First Read for posting so many great articles and reader comments.  Kudos to all the great comments by Obama supporters!

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
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VOTE!!!!!!   VOTE!!!!!!   VOTE!!!!!!

Obama/Biden'08
I would guess Biden’s comments about a crisis in the first six months were Joe’s way of highlighting his own contribution to the strength of the ticket.  It wasn’t exactly prophetic since we already know for certain that Obama will inherit a whole set of crises left over from the last eight years.  We’re engaged in two wars and our financial system has melted down while our debt has skyrocketed.  Meanwhile, the people who attacked us on 9/11 are still at large.

As Colin Powell said, we’ve seen both candidates make important judgment calls during the course of this campaign, with none more critical than the selection of a running mate.  What if six months into the next term we have a President Palin facing a foreign policy crisis?  What does John’s political gamble with the nation’s future say about his judgment?  We watched John McCain flounder for a response to the financial crisis, at one point making a show of suspending his campaign on principle only to turn around and tell us never mind when the gambit failed politically.  What does that say about his vision and leadership?  

Barack Obama has remained steady and cool under fire.  He has proven a reassuringly effective leader who surrounds himself with competent and disciplined people.  Together they have conceived and executed a successful campaign strategy against long odds in a complex and dynamic political environment.  Whatever combination of challenges we face in the future, let’s make sure we have the smartest and most competent people leading us for a change.
>>>*** On the trail: McCain embarks on a “Joe the Plumber” bus tour across Florida.
==========
And yet he blames Obama for the invasion of Joe's privacy and all of the negative information being exposed about him.  Maybe if he stopped pimping the guy like a prison 61tch, the guy's life might get back to normal.  Of course, Joe is becoming a bit of a media whore himself, isn't he.

Obama/Biden '08!
http://jawillie.blog.com
While many feel that the things going on in this election are just politics as usual, my two daughters reminded me this week that our kids are watching and absorbing EVERYTHING.

(Just for context, I am a 37 year old, black, married, mother of two daughters living in the suburbs of Nashville, Tennessee - based on yard signs - McCain country.)


My second grader asked her friend Caroline who she was going to vote for. Caroline said John McCain. When my daughter asker her why she responded "because I always vote for the white one."

I applaud Caroline for her honesty. I applaud second graders for talking about the election. I hope adults realize that our kids are watching.

My fourth grader said her friend Kaylee told her that her mom was concerned that Senator Obama was going to be shot just like Martin Luther King. Fourth graders worried about assasination.

Think before you speak. Think before you vote. Our kids are watching - and they are worried.
these polls are lookin' great guys.  I see an obama win but lets not get carried away we know its not going to be a landslide

Whoa, McCain Just Agreed With Murtha, Western PA Racisthttp://sensico.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/whoa-mccain-just-agreed-with-murtha-western-pa-racist/
Don't worry Chucky T. about your honest comments regarding the McCain/Palin interview; you are a fair and balanced journalist and I liked hearing what you had to say---a breath of fresh air. You don't need to back pedal.
‘We just let things get completely out of hand,’ he said of his own party's rule in the past eight years." how honest of john mccain to include himself in this criticism as when he has said proudly, "i have supported president bush more than 90% of the time." on the fiasco of the iraq war, against both gen. shinseki and gen. powell's overwhelming force, continued torture by black ops intelligence groups or against increased veteran benefits, john mccain has been on the wrong side of history.
BJ CA

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That's what I like about this board. It brings out the intelligent liberals.
I just love watching the red states turn a lovely shade of True Blue!  So funny how Obama has forced McNasty to defend once solid red states.

How hypocritical of McNasty blasting "MBA Dunce" Bush for running up the debt when he has been instrumental in running up the national debt his whole 26 year career.  Plus he wants to keep running up the debt with his clueless desire to extend the same stupid tax cuts he once railed against.  Obviously he just wants to bribe the voters to vote for him.

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
wait, I was thinking if Naval Academies produce presidents like Jimmy Carter, then why are we even considering McCain to be president...just saying
Dear Govenor Palin, would you please advise me at what Salvation Army office you will be donating your $150,000.00 campaign wardrobe,purchesed by the Republican Party. I plan on doing my Christmas shopping for the missis at that location. Also, is your shoe size a  6 and will you be donating your jewlery as well ?
I don't think your baseball fact is right...I am pretty sure the Phillies have been in the series since 1980, under the manager of Jim Fergosi???
That ticking sound you hear is the egg timer counting down to the day Mccain goes back to being a grouchy curmudgeon in the senate and Palin goes back to Alaska with her designer clothes from the lower 48...what a couple of losers
Biden is getting the rap of being the Terri Schiavo of politics, but it's not true. Terri was light years ahead of Joe, especially at getting her message across.
Yes we will !
Biden released his medical records, well, except his brain scans. But they showed nothing was there anyway, so why bother.
Arnie Lumbkin, NY (Sent Thursday, October 23, 2008 9:22 AM)

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I think you are mistaking YOUR brain scans for Biden's with a post like that!  Palin is too busy asking the Grand Wizard for a Brain!
Sounds like Chuck got a nasty response from the McCain campaign about his on-air impressions yesterday. The right thing to do would be to quote the complaints and let the campaign give its own response rather than water down your own observations.
OMG,
Folks this is unbelievalble!  only in Texas could this happen and if I had a better job and some savings I would sell out and get out!

my fifteen year old daughter has a teacher tell her that anyone voting for obama doesn't understand the issues and shuold not be allowed to vote.

the principal calls my daughter in to calm  her distress and proceeds to tell her that he is a mccain man but she could support whomever she chose.
the next week, this same teacher tells her classes that obama hates all white people. my daughter tells her but his mother and grandparents were white. all this is happening in texas classrooms! Vote for whomever you want but leave minor children out of this!

BTW, joe the plummer is a registered republican and on mccain's donor list. First read can you spell S..E..T..U..P..? obama gave joe a very thoughtful answer but you guys only report on the spread the wealth sound bite.
Obama is still affiliated with ACORN and said he'd give them a "voice" in his administration. The honesty and integrity of the Obama Trauma comes into play again. Now he says he's not involved with them but, as with everything else, he'd HAVE to say that now, wouldn't he?
Double Digits? Well yeah, for the phony polls. Others show a tie or a slight lead for McCain. You know, like the AP poll. Like anyone has ever heard of them. I guess we should just believe the Burger King/Blockbuster Movies poll instead
Why are you apologizing for your observations about the ticket's chemistry?
on-the-trail: does anyone question why the Obama Team is not fighting back in OH and Pa?
"*** McCain vs. Bush: "


This should have been McCain's platform from the beginning.
We need to see Palin's medical records and soon to determine if she is in good health because with McCain's age and her health; the american people need to know and before election day. WE NEED TO SEE PALIN'S MEDICAL RECORDS NOW!  MSNBC I never see my comments
The last time the Phillies were in the World Series was a 1993, they also lost in 1983.  The last time they won was 1980, so if they win this year the connection might be valid.
The rout is on! Stay focused barack! Leave nothing to chance!  YES WE CAN!
McCain blasts bush for creating so much debt but he voted for bills etc that increased that debt 90% of the time.

Does McCain actually think the voting public will buy this or does he just not remember what he did?
Up 10 in INDIANA?!?!?! Wow, this thing is over for McCain. At this point, he really needs to be thinking about what kind of lasting impression he will leave on his reputation. Does he go out slinging mud against the inevitable winner until the bitter end, or does he try to restore some civility and accept his defeat like a man. My guess is.... mudslinging :/
This is great to see! Keep voting early my fellow Americans, and keep in mind that this election is not over yet. "Remember New Hampshire!"
Hmmmmmm........

And where are Barack's COMPLETE medical records?
Hstory of drug use?
Cigarettes?

Oh....just a note from his doctor where Michelle works & some minor medical stats.
I like Palin because she's a maverick, like McCain, who deserves the presidency because of his military record, and because he's a POW.
Why is NBC, with the Brian Williams interviews, giving the McCain/Palin ticket all of this free broadcast exposure just a few days before the election.  I understand that the GOP previously would not give Williams a chance to interview Palin.  Nevertheless, I feel it is unfair to devote so much time to these interviews so close to the election, in order that McCain/Palin can bash the Obama/Biden ticket with negative tactics.  I feel that Obama/Biden should now be offered equal time from NBC so they can defend themselves.
What's interesting is that the liberals shot down Colin Powell for everything he did under the Bush administration, called him the biggest dunce ever. Now that he's joined the Democrats, he's still a dunce, but as the Democrats say, "He's our dunce!". Colin will fit in nicely with the Barack crowd. The blind leading the blind.
Marie, you are right - the baseball info is not correct. Phillies fans know the last time (and only time) the Phillies WON the World Series was 1980. They made it to the World Series in 1983 and 1993 and lost to the Orioles and Blue Jays, respectively.
Double digits in Ohio, and Indiana? I'm just not sure that's believable.

There's also a couple polls that have shown tightening nationally, and agent of darkness Rove said last night on Fox that he's seen private polling data showing Pennsylvania within reach for McCain.

If you're on the ground in any swing state, take nothing for granted.
To:
That's what I like about this board. It brings out the intelligent liberals.
Smartacres, California
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You should have called me an open minded American
On the trail: McCain embarks on a “Joe the Plumber” bus tour across Florida.

Are there others out there that are tired of and insulted by this mistaken gimmick? The real "Joe the Plumeber" is entitled to his opinions but Palin and McCain need to quit making him the spokesperson for the average working person. I don't care that "Joe the Plumber" thinks Obama's tax cut for the middle class sounds like Socialism. "Joe the Plumber" also says that Social Security is wrong. I wonder, will  McCain fire up Floridians with that "Joe the Plumber" opinion?


WHY are we letting the Palin/McCain Campaign get away with the "REFORMER AS GOVERNOR" Crap? The Alaskan Legislature with 10 Republicans & 4 Dems have already completed a 3 mos investigation to find an ETHICS VIOLATION - SHE ABUSED HER OFC! What IS the McCain/Plain definition of REFORM - does it exclude abuse of power? And WHY isn't Brian Williams asking that tough question.... McCain is right - the 1st step to reform Washington is to keep the UNETHICAL OUT of our Government!

Keep McCain/Palin OUT in '08!
umm, the last time the Phillies were in the World Series was 1983, not 1980. The GOP can't even get their baseball facts right.
the phillies were last in the world series in 1993
Obama would be tested during the first six months if he was president. More then likely Canada would attack us, and Obama would promptly surrender to them.
1993 is not 1980.  Of course the next year the world series was canceled due to the strike/lockout, what omen is that.  Also, the phillies lost 4-2.  4-2, sounds like 42 - which of course was Clinton's presidency, which must mean a good year for the democrats.  Shirley you must have fact-checkers working for you.


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