First thoughts: Not over 'til it's over
Posted: Friday, October 24, 2008 9:32 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Not over ‘til it’s over: Down in the polls with just 11 days left, the McCain campaign has used two of the biggest CW table-setters out there -- the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney and the Washington Post’s Dan Balz -- to argue that this race isn’t over just yet. Per Nagourney's piece, “‘The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,’ said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. ‘We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.’” And writes Balz, "McCain's advisers acknowledge that his way back is difficult, but they maintain that there is a way. It requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in Congress.” But it’s also clear that Pennsylvania has become the campaign’s do-or-die state. As one McCain official candidly tells the Politico, “We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.” The scary thing for the McCain campaign is that they could win Pennsylvania, but if they lose Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, they lose in the Electoral College, 270-268. That's just stunning. The McCain campaign could win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and still lose. This is how Obama's money and organizational advantage has made such a difference: They've rewritten the battleground just as they promised.
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VIDEO: Presidential candidates Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama battle in important swing states. NBC’s David Gregory reports. ***
$12 million left? But the McCain camp is going to have to flip Pennsylvania -- and hold on to the other Bush states -- with limited funds. The
AP got its hands on campaign-finance reports for the first two weeks of October showing that McCain, as of October 15, had $25 million left of his $84.1 million in public funds. “At McCain's spending rate of $1.5 million a day, the Arizona senator likely has only $12 million to spend in the next 11 days before the Nov. 4 election.” Yet that amount is bolstered when you add the Republican National Committee’s deep wallets. By comparison, the AP notes that Obama spent more than $105 million (!!!) during the first two weeks of October, has $66 million cash on hand, and had raised about $36 million over those two weeks (about half of the pace of his September haul).
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The blame game: But it’s not just diminishing resources and a shrinking map the McCain camp has to contend with. There’s also the blame game. This is what creates an unhealthy atmosphere inside the campaign. Folks are looking over their shoulders, and this is where the loyalists get separated from the mercenaries. The true mettle of a political strategist/consultant gets tested now when things look as dark as they do right now for McCain.
*** One last play of the experience card: The McCain campaign is up with a new TV ad that seizing on Joe Biden’s remarks from last weekend that the new president will be tested by an international crisis in his first year in office. The ad -- very similar to a Web ad he ran against Mitt Romney right before the New Hampshire primary -- features menacing pictures of terrorists, Chavez, Ahmadinejad, and tanks. “It doesn’t have to happen,” the narrator says. “Vote McCain.” As we’ve mentioned before, Biden was inartfully referring to the historical fact that new presidents have always been tested by international crises in their first years. Clinton had to deal with Somalia; Bush had to respond to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Is the McCain campaign guaranteeing to Americans that a crisis won’t occur under his watch? That's the implication. As we also noted before, it's one of the final arguments Jimmy Carter made against Reagan in 1980.
*** The Colin Powell floodgates: Three semi-notable Republicans came out for Obama yesterday, including two former very-moderate Republican governors: Arne Carlson of Minnesota and Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Neither is that surprising to those that know the politics of the two ex-governors, but to a layman’s eyes, it’s not good news for McCain. What is striking here is that these endorsements underscore how McCain somehow lost his moderate identity -- even among Republicans who seem to know him well. Seriously, these are the type of Republicans the McCain of 2000 would have counted on as his base. How did McCain end up being the nominee that was overly focused on wooing the base? How did he lose this middle-of-the-road mojo? Forget the Bush issue and the economy; McCain's inability to keep his moderate identity might be the biggest mistake bungle of the campaign.
*** Palin’s policy speech: This hasn’t necessarily been a great week for Palin. First came new polls, including our NBC/WSJ survey, suggesting that she has been a drag on the McCain ticket. And then we discovered the RNC had spent some $150,000 on clothes for the self-described hockey mom and her family. But she ends her week by delivering her first policy speech this morning in Pittsburgh. In the speech, per NBC’s Savannah Guthrie and NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger, Palin will highlight her commitment to families with special needs. More from the Chicago Tribune: “She will call for full funding of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, ‘boost funding for special-needs children from birth to age 3 and allow parents to choose whether federal money for their child is used in a public, private, religious or secular school without navigating a cumbersome administrative process.’ The plan calls for adding $15 billion a year to IDEA, which would fully fund the federal commitment to the 1975 law. That would be phased in over five years, and would be exempted from a federal government spending freeze that McCain and Palin have advocated for on the campaign trail.”
*** Another chapter in Troopergate: But the policy speech isn’t the only news Palin will make today. NBC’s Guthrie reports that Palin will be deposed today by the independent investigator working for the Alaska personnel board in the Troopergate probe. The interview will be under oath, and Todd Palin will be deposed separately. Among the campaign staff and reporters traveling with Palin yesterday was her personal attorney, Thomas Van Flein, who flew from Alaska to meet Palin and traveled on the campaign plane. Coming 11 days before the election, the depositions aren’t good timing for the campaign, which had to deal with a spate of Troopergate headlines two weeks ago, when the legislative committee issued its report on the matter and found Palin had abused her power. Less than two weeks to go and the GOP VP nominee is participating in a deposition? Seriously? This isn't bad luck for the McCain campaign, this is a self-inflicted wound. Ouch
*** More polls! New state polls in Indiana, Florida, and Michigan paint a mixed picture for McCain going into the weekend. Mason-Dixon sees him holding on to a five-point lead in Indiana, and one Florida poll shows him only down by three points. But a new Miami Herald poll has Obama's margin widening to seven points in the state. And new Michigan numbers from EPIC/MRA rub salt in McCain's Great Lakes wound. P.S. Who would have believed on May 5th that we'd be talking about Indiana polling eleven days before the general election?
*** Grabbing those coattails: Perhaps no article underscores Obama's strength right now than this Wall Street Journal piece: Down-ballot Dems are looking to grab on to a piece of Obama's perceived coattails.
*** Fun fact of the day: With McCain's battleground focus on Pennsylvania, it should be noted that no Democrat has won the White House without winning the Keystone State in 60 years. Truman did it in 1948. Dewey Wins! Pennsylvania that is, 51%-47%.
*** On the trail: McCain is in Colorado, where he hits rallies in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Durango. Obama is down in Hawaii. Biden holds rallies in Charleston, WV and Martinsville, VA. Palin begins the day with her policy speech in Pittsburgh and then hits a rally in St. Louis. And Michelle Obama campaigns in Ohio, visiting Columbus and Akron.
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 11 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 76 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 88 days
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