The Obama team's map
Posted: Friday, October 24, 2008 5:31 PM by Carrie Dann
From NBC’s Ashley Codianni and NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones
With 11 days to go, the Obama campaign is feeling good about its position in several of the big battleground states, due to the strength of their ground operations, enthusiasm among their supporters and early voting data, Campaign Manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call this afternoon.
Plouffe confidently pointed to Obama's advantage in battleground Pennsylvania to prove that old axiom: Numbers don't lie. "If you look at cold hard numbers, in order for McCain to win Pennsylvania, he is going to have to win at least 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican vote and 60% of the independent vote," Plouffe said. "We believe McCain is losing independents by about 20 points right now in Pennsylvania, so he would need a 40 point swing."
He added that the campaign is "surprised" by McCain's campaign performance in the Granite State, "We'd thought there might be a chance he'd over-perform in New Hampshire, given his history with the voters there." Instead, the Palin pick has driven away McCain’s traditional independent base in New Hampshire, Plouffe added.
Plouffe said that the fact that Obama’s position had strengthened in Virginia and Colorado was “one of more the significant moments in the election" and that when it came to states George Bush won in 2004, the campaign was playing more offense than defense.
“Our whole strategy has been predicated on the fact that these battleground states are going to be decided very narrowly, so that’s what we’re preparing for. And don’t pay too much attention to polling right now,” Plouffe said.
He said there are pathways to victory in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and West Virginia – a state he called a jump ball – but that the races would be very close. He stressed that campaigning in Indiana and North Carolina had forced McCain to go on the defensive by spending a lot of time and money there.
Also on the call were National Field Director Jon Carson and Battleground State Director Jen O’Malley, who discussed early voting patterns among Democrats and voter contact and ground organization in the battlegrounds.
O’Malley said the campaign had about 1.5 million active volunteers across the country and 770 offices. The campaign has made some 12 million conversations with voters nationwide since Labor Day, including 1.3 million voters in Florida and 1.5 million in Ohio.
