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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Davis: VA still in play

Posted: Friday, October 24, 2008 8:05 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Abby Livingston
In an interview with NBC's Chuck Todd on MSNBC yesterday, retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) said that despite gloomy GOP outlook, Virginia is still in play in the presidential race.

“In a year like this, in a dynamic like this, you know, the Republicans have to be worried about it," Davis said. "And it'll be close. It'll be -- just remember, [former Virginia governor] Doug Wilder had like a 13-point, 14-point lead the Sunday before the election, and won by one point. So we get into the over-polling in this.”

When asked if the McCain campaign made a mistake by not advertising in Northern Virginia, Davis said, “Well, of course they did. But they didn't have it. They had to spread it around. They made different decisions. But I think they're in now. So the last two weeks, I think it closes, and it'll be competitive.”

He gave a stark outlook for Republicans in the down ballot races.

“The metrics favor the Democrats,” he said. “The Republicans have a lot of retirements that Democrats don't have. You've got a bad economy, a very unpopular president. But I think the most telling feature going into the last two weeks is the fact that the Democrats have huge spending advantages and are able to penetrate a lot of races and keep the Republicans pinned down and on defense.”

One of those metrics is the Democrats’ financial advantage. He attributes Democratic-leaning labor as part of the advantage, but also noted a shift in parties for donations. 

“Business abandoned the Republicans in droves," Davis said. "You even have the pharmaceuticals, Wall Street giving heavily to Democrats over Republicans. The pharmaceuticals, who Democrats have attacked for years, giving 50-50. I mean, what does that tell you? And on the small-donor base, the out party generally benefits. And they've done a great job raising money over the Internet.”

Davis also discussed the policy news of the day, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan’s testimony before Congress.

“It's a collective responsibility, Chuck. I think that's what we need to understand. I think everybody is going like this, pointing fingers,” Davis said, as he pointed in crossing, opposite directions. He added, “But the answer is that I think both Alan Greenspan and [SEC Chairman] Chris Cox all said in retrospect they would have done things differently, but they were hampered by the legislation itself, that didn't allow them to move into some areas, in some of these derivative areas and regulate them like they want.”

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Every state is in play until polls close on November 4th, 2008. Poll results are a snapshot in time and are not the end all be all of forecasts. Weather, long lines, not knowing how to vote, and racial profiling, ALL have an influence in the final results. The only guarantee over the last two years is that there is no guarantee. Polls tighten at the end and you can be sure the Republicans will hammer hard over the next 10 days.

Independents look at issues.

Independents get out and VOTE.

Independents Vote Obama!
as a virginian in davis' district, i feel he is correct, I don't trust these large leads in virginia.  nothing is won, nothing is guaranteed.  I don't know if mccain caail.comn win with the lack of advertising happening in my area.  It'll be a fun night on November 4th.
Davis is an idiot, and Virginia has changed a huge amount demographically since Wilder ran for governor.
I am not certain how republicans can win va when they have no ground game. In addition, the republicans have critized sections of va by saying "real virginans" will vote McCain. this is the same nonsense that led george allen to lose his senate sit. when you insult people it is hard to then ask for their vote.
It's really a shame that Jim Gilmore got picked over Tom Davis. Davis is an old style Republican. VA. Repubs wanted a down state Conservative. Look what that got them. Warner will win in a landslide.
why are all of your articles about the republicans or mccain trying for a comeback?  i am getting sick and tired of reading how mccain can come back still.  how about just reporting the polls and discussing that.  it is becoming obvious how much the press wants this closer than it is.  
Change we can believe in...Yes We Are

Obama/Biden'08
Are there any McCain-Palin supporters who retain any objectivity, who are able to limit their biased / prejudiced thinking and rationally evaluate and recognize the desperate and low-class, unconscionable and dishonest efforts rendered by their candidates?  To continue to support them, like Bill O’Reilly, Russ Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Elisabeth Hasselbeck, seems to demand a real questioning of the intelligence and conscience of the supporters.  The obvious absurdity and blatant dishonesty of McCain’s and Palin’s behavior seems to literally challenge supporters to remain loyal in spite of insulting them with despicable and irrational self-focused behavior.  The McCain-Palin campaign has become ridiculous and obnoxious with undisciplined self-concerned behavior that takes politics to a new low.  To remain tolerant and supportive of that would have to reflect on anyone’s self-respect and self-esteem.  If not McCain-Palin supporters, at least everyone else should reject their performance as you can’t trust them to do anything about the significant problems and real needs we face today because McCain and Palin clearly demonstrate they think everything is just about them.  McCain just wants to be president before he retires and Palin simply wants all of the attention she can get and that is obviously where it is at for them.  We have seen this mentality before and more of the same is really not acceptable.
Please, please keep interviewing these GOP hacks.  It helps us keep motivated and pushing through to the finish.  It keeps us from letting up.  On November 4, 2008 the headstone will read GOP - Rest In Peace.
Who is the REAL Sarah Palin?
Powell's endorsement sealed the deal for Obama in VA. All that is left now is to make sure turnout matches excitement. In my Indiana county of Tipton, I had to urge Obama supporters to flood the Clerk's Office with calls to make sure that voters were informed regarding the early voting entrance. Read more at:

http://democratictribune.com
Tom Brokaw is not fit to host the same show as Tim Russert. Tom is so bias, he need to put out to pasture and poor old John McCain has sold his soul.. He will say anything to get elected. I have never heard so many lies,half truths in any election before this one.. John McCain has become mental unstable.
I think MSNBC should just hand over the station to the McCain Campaign. 45 minutes of an hour are spent on McCain/Palin.  And when talking about Obama, you connect it somehow to McCain.  Free air time for the old warrior eh?  And How Tom Brokejaw got Meet the Press is beyond me.Surely some where there is someone who isn't so biased.
Who cares what Tom Davis has to say. He, like all people of his kind do not want to take any responsibility for how we got here. They make it sound like they had no roll in this mess. The reason the out party is collecting so much money is Davis and his party forgot about the people who voted. They ought to be ashamed, but instead they walk off to nice retirement jobs with people they were supposed to be regulating. Good riddance to you pal you partisian hack>


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