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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama goes up in AZ, GA and ND

Posted: Friday, October 31, 2008 11:10 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Mark Murray and Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
In a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama manager David Plouffe announced that the campaign was going with ads in McCain's home state of Arizona, as well as in the red states of Georgia and North Dakota.

The ad that will air in Arizona is the campaign's positive closing ad, while the one that will run in Georgia and North Dakota tie McCain to President Bush on economic policy. 

Plouffe said that these three states were enough in the "realm of possibility" that the campaign wanted to put an "extra effort" in them in the final days. "We think things have tightened up in Arizona," he said. "As I mentioned, we are running a positive ad there. It is Sen. McCain's home state; we are cognizant of that. But we think a positive ad there can help make the case."

Plouffe added, "If someone else had been the Republican nominee, I think Arizona would be a core battleground, like its western neighbors. Obviously, it is Sen. McCain's home sate, so he is going to over perform there a little bit." 

Also on the call, Plouffe said the Obama campaign was looking strong in the state of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia. And he said that they saw paths to victory in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio.

What's more, Plouffe said the campaign is pleased with the early vote numbers they are seeing in several states, particularly in North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.

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Comments

Like seeing the Obama campaign attacking Ga, Az and ND.  Would also like to see Obama at a rally in Phoenix, Az.  I believe he would be very impressed with the numbers of prople he would draw...
It is only fitting that Arizona goes Blue, as a spit in McCain's nasty face for being so nasty and full of lies and smears.
Where's Obama Girl these days? Didn't she really get the ball rolling as far as name recognition for Senator Obama all across the country back in the summer of 2007?  
"The ad that will air in Arizona is the campaign's positive closing ad"
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

McCain: "What's a 'positive' ad? Sounds like socialism to me...."
Don't let up Obama!  four more days.  Ron, Indiana - I, too, will not be posting Tuesday.  We've got to win this thing.  Do everything we can!
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The Infomercial was TOTALLY worth it.  A couple of my college friends - old school Republicans (OK, TX) are now voting for Obama after much soul searching (and cajoling by me,...).  They both cited the infomercial as bringing them a level of peace with their decision.  They feel that commercial humanized the entire issues (paraphrasing).  Yippee, granted they both live in states that it probably won't matter,...but at least it persuaded.

Also, while Republicans might want to paint Hillary as the scary one, NOTHING is as scary to me (and both of the above friends) as Palin being a 'heartbeat away'.  She is Bush with lipstick and even less education and National or International awareness.  Seeing Russia from your state really doesn't make you qualified to negotiate with Russia over nuclear disarmament.  Your self confidence is great, your self awareness is stunningly lacking.
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No joe, no bo, nj

Your invective against Obama is baseless and factless.  I find your posts to be dishonest and moronic.  Here is the Wendy Button blog, http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2008-10-28/so-long-obama/1/  She did not write the convention speeches.  At best she seems to have had a minimal role in the Obama campaign.  Her biggest beef seems to be with John Edwards.  Her ideology throughout indicates that she was never a true Democrat.  She aligned more closely with Hillary and the feminist agenda.  I find her ‘embracing’ McCain’s leadership on the surge completely disingenuous.  The majority of her issues are being attributed to the Obama campaign, instead of the pundits who made the remarks.  More ‘guilt by non-association’.  I know you are desperate to prevent the freight train from coming; but Obama will be your next president.  You should start healing now.
Proudly voted for Obama/Biden on Tuesday!!

Colorado turns BLUE!!
Her in GA, no one is "giving in" to the conventional wisdom that GA is pure red.

Saxby had better keep watching his rear view!!
I think it would be too funny if McPain was beaten in Arizona...not that he is from here or actually a "Westerner"...
There has been Divine Intervention:  Practically everything has been thrown at this country but a plague of locusts...what more will it take to convince people this country needs CHANGE!?

Ginger Las Vegas (Sent Friday, October 31, 2008 10:16 AM)


Either that, or some insecticide.
I think it's a great idea to squeeze the McCain campaign even more in these final days.  People in his state deserve to know.  McCain will be forced to counter with a negative ad...and it will turn people off.  Incidentally...posters "Dale from USA" and "gggg" obviously believe Obama is the Boogyman.  Do they still believe in Santa or the Tooth Fairy too?....does the Obama tax calculator exist in their fantasy land?
How about a story about the reporters from three news organization, (which, incidentally, endorsed McCain), being kicked off the Obama campaign plane for 'lack of room'.

First, the Obama campaign freezes out a news organization that dared to ask tough questions of Joe Biden, then this.  What would an Obama presidency look like?  Would you guys get to report on failures?  Raise questions?

Or are you so enamored of him that 'freedom of the press' has taken on a new meaning for you-Obama worship, 24/7, so there would be no adverse consequences for you.

The American media-the new Pravda.
40 years of republican fear mongering and their trickle down theories will come crashing down (finally) on tuesday.  It is truly amazing how ignorance can be seen as qualification for high office, unless of course you believe that "W" and his minions rape on the constitution have been wonderful for the planet.

obama is not a muslim, he is not un american, and for those of you who call him elist please check yourself in the mirror.  "W" and the people in the white house used their connections to get out of vietnam, then proceeded to unlearn the lessons of vietnam by going into Iraq based on false premises as a patriotic thing to do.  The surge is a fallacy, the war is a fallacy, leave the arabs alone and stay out of the muck that "W" dad did not want to get into - duh.  

There is no draft but what do you call being sent back to iraq 4/5 times ??  No matter how many 'terrorists' you kill it is not going to change the situation over there - until we stop borrowing from the Chinese to pay for the oil from Saudi Arabia - ??  

Studying hard, speaking well, checking your history, talking to people is not something that should be frowned upon.  

Seriously folks, you need to stop listening to the fear mongering, check your facts, and look at where this great country has gone.  The USA needs to lead the planet, not blow it up.

Thank you Chuck, Keith, and Rachel for helping bring the facts to front and center...

SWL
One of the finest campaigns I have ever seen run by a Presidential candidate. They will be writing books on the "excellence" of this Obama campaign from the primary through the general election. Every move, every speech, every response, holding to a consistent theme of change no matter the opponent's attacks, excellent communications, wonderful use of technonogy and the internet, and a very serious calm and non-overreactive staff has made the Obama campaign a pleasure to watch. It will be carefully studied by future candidates for years to come who are looking for ways on how best to manage a campaign.  

Other books will be written about the McCain campaign that will be studied on how not to manage a campaign, or how not to pick a VP running mate.
Unfortunately its probably too late for Obama to make a detour on short notice.  Obama would have nothing to lose by holding a rally in (for example) Chase Field or a similar size venue.  He would absolutely draw the crowds, but I think AZ just tightened up too late for the Obama campaign to mount much more than an underground push here.  The fact that they're putting up ads here is good enough.
"Looking strong" is one thing, winning is another. Obama will lose all those states, and the presidency. It will be Kodak moment when his Chief of Staff Rahm Emanual tells Obama he has to give his concession speech.
OMG, Obama taking AZ.  Talk about running up the score and de-moralizing your opponent.  Even if he doesn't win there, he forces McCain to once again pour time, resources, and $$$ into another state he shouldn't have to fight for.

Obama/Biden '08!
http://jawillie.blog.com
This headline is a little misleading as it would be easy to assume he's gone up in the polls.  It should have read "Obama ads go up in..."
I know SC is as read as it gets, but when my Republican to his core husband (I being independent) is seriously considering not voting for McCain--that speaks volumns.  Now, I have been unable to totally convince him to vote for Obama (and trust me I have tried), but he says he will probably vote for a 3rd party vs. McCain.  I think the only pole I've seen on SC shows and 11 point lead for McCain...but I can tell you that their are doubters at least in this portion of SC--we are in the same media market of Charlotte, NC for TV and radio. Would love to know what those same ads would produce in other parts of the state.  I see more Obama signs than I do MCCain. here.
Keep at it!    I think everyone is seeing Senator Obama as our next President.   Republicans have been switching to Obama because they  know that McCain would NOT be a good leader.   He is all over the place and has nothing of substance to say.

Palin is NOT QUALIFIED in any shape or form to be VP, no less President.   I am confident the majority of voters can recognize this.   All she does is screach and attack.

VOTERS --- MAKE THE SMART CHOICE.....

OBAMA/BIDEN '08

Just look at how their two campaigns are run and ask yourself who has the better team around him? Then you know who to vote for, Obama/Biden is the only logical choice! Time for a change, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!
BTW I have already voted!!!!!!!!
The Obama campaign strategy has always been about multiple paths to victory. What better way to finish out the campaign than with a win in AZ!

Don't forget to vote on Tuesday!

http://www.newshounds.us/
looking good. looking good. Just keep up the excellen work Plouffe!  We're almost finished.  Wow, a victory, or even a close defeat in Arizona, would be so cool!
I live in AZ and have been saying for the last two months that Obama is going to win Arizona. Quite a difference from 4 years ago. I notice Sen Kyle is keeping a low profile lately.

Change I am counting on!!!!!!! Go Obama.
If Obama held a rally in Atlanta in the remaining days, he just may win Georgia. Bob Barr's on the ballot and will probably cipher some of McCain's vote.
Keep it coming President Obama!
Most folks are like me:  All bushed Out!
I called 243 people today, and most are now swinging to McCain!?! Come on Obamaites, send in your money now! You'll all get it back later with your $50 refund that Barack steals from the rich.
4 MORE DAY !..NO MORE YEARS ! ... 4 MORE DAYS ! ... NO MORE YEARS ! GO OBAMA GO ! GO OBAMA GO ! GO OBAMA GO ! GO OBAMA GO ! GO OBAMA GO ! GO OBAMA GO ! GO OBAMA GO !
The overall "ad campaign" is much deeper than just the radio and TV ads. We just returned home from a several day trip to find 14 robo-calls on our voicemail. One was Democratic, from Biden,simply asking us to view the Obama infomercial. The other 13 were GOP robo calls, and were either extremely nasty, or inaccurate to say the least.If we were somewhat undecided, we are no longer.Obama's campaign indicates far more leadership & international leadership. McCain embarrasses me because I voted for him in past years. Never again....& Palin is a mjor reason for losing Independent votes.
So yall think Obama will take all the states and turn them blue ????  In this polling... many people polled said the were for Obama that really aren't ? I did as well as most of our friends, family and co-workers. We all got together and thought it would be fun to make the polls look bad ! Makes you wonder just how acurate these polls really are ?????
I recently took a road trip from michigan to new york, and in pennsylvania I saw 10 ten times more obama signs than mccain, he will win PA im sure, as well as the entire election! GO OBAMA!
OBAMA, OBAMA, OBAMA, WOULD LIKE TO SEE YOU IN THE GRAND CANYON STATE - PHOENIX, ARIZONA.  MISSED YOU WHEN YOU WERE AT ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY.  FULL SUPPORT FROM THIS NATIVE ARIZONAN.  MAKE A VISIT, PLEEEEEZ!
Just the fact that Obama has a chance to change ND from Red to Blue, is amazing.  This state has long been Red since long before my voting days.  Lets Go NoDaks...lets make the CHANGE - from Red to Blue, From Repulican to Democrat!  It is LONG overdue!  My Vote is already in...don't get complacent, don't believe the polls...get out there and VOTE!

Obama/Biden '08
It'll be funny when Obama carries AZ and AK.
Obama needs to drop into GA. We're turning out for him. A visit would amplify the process.
If Obama had done some personal campaigning in GA and not pulled his ground team out earlier, he would have GA wrapped up....but I still think that GA will go BLUE.
Come to Tucson too Obama!  It's not too late to win our State!
Alright, bring the fight to his home state. Great news!
OK Obama supports, one last time for a donation.

I just made mine.
I just love how Obama is again expanding the electoral map by going into more repugnant ones strongholds.  It would be just too funny if Obama wins Arizona!

Go Obama/Biden 08/12!
I agree. to Phoenix we go! right in his own back yard. it would send  a strong message. even if we dont win there.
Obama's forcing McCain to defend everywhere.  Now THIS is how you attack your opponent - not with smear tactics, but by threatening to take away votes where McCain doesn't expect to lose.
We have McCain and his campaign manager to thank for the horrendous campaign, the losy VP choice, and negative ads rather than real substance......which leads to a Tuesday landslide. John...you really have finally helped America this time.
No joe, no bo, nj. are you kidding me? McCain and Palin have kicked national writers off their planes, like Joe Klein and Mo Dowd!! Ha! Obama can do what he wants, he has PUBLIC support!
JOHN WOULD HAVE A HEART ATTACK IF OBAMA SHOWED UP IN PHOENIX AZ.  
It is good to see the Obama Campaign still getting their message of change out to all Americans. A rally in Phoenix, AZ. is a great idea for the Obama Campaign to consider. It certainly could not hurt the continued message for unity, and change. Hopefully, their ad strategy will bring more treats for Obama on Halloween. Keep voting early!
Liberals are so blind and irrational. You hate GWB so much that you can't even see the forst through the trees. Your vision is so clouded with "change" that you will allow this country to go deep into socialism. Do you want to live under Obama's thumb? You're like lost sheep stuck out there on the mountain and no shephards are gonna save you. BAAAA !!
I think that if Obama had as much time as the Bomber had to campaign for prez he would have Arizona locked up.Even his home state is in play and Obama hasn't spent any time there.Bomber has lost the Laitno vote and that could be costly.Besides the guy bounces from one smear to another.He's not going to shake his past,and Bush is the reason,to many huggs and kisses.
Rhiannon, Lancaster SC (Sent Friday, October 31, 2008 11:31 AM)

Rhiannon:

Tell your husband to give Obama a chance. Let's see what he can do. Then if Obama does not hold to his vision for this country (something I doubt seriously will happen) we, he, can vote Obama out in the next election.  
I am a 40 year old white Republican who voted for Obama last week in North Carolina.  I am wondering how many others like me are out there and whether the party registration data used to calculate the early voting tallies may not conceal a big victory here for Obama.  I know several other Republicans here who voted for Obama and I cannot imagine many Democrats voting for McCain in this economy.  I also want to say that I am not a voting for Obama just to repudiate the direction my party has taken over the last eight years.  I respect and admire John McCain but having done a lot of listening over the last 20 months, I just think Obama is the genuine article.  Obama is a very decent man who has the temperament and intellignece to lead at this time.  Plus, I do not believe that Governor Palin is a suitable VP choice.
Its pretty interesting that AZ is tightening up for Obama, when that is McCain's home state.  I keep hearing from McCain serrogates that the race is tightening up for McCain, but the numbers don't reflect what they are trying to say.  


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