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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



McCain camp watching PA, FL, the West

Posted: Tuesday, November 04, 2008 1:05 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain-RNC political director Mike DuHaime gave a peek into what the campaign will be watching tonight.

In Pennsylvania, he will be watching the Democratic margin in Philadelphia, he told NBC's Chuck Todd on MSNBC today. Kerry won the city by about 412,000 votes. DuHaime said he'll be watching to see if Obama gets to a 500,000 margin, as Democrats hope. If he doesn't, he thinks it could be a good sign for McCain camp and may signify a long night of counting the vote in the Keystone State.

Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd lists five things to look for to see which way the election is headed.

He's also watching the margins in the Eastern Pennsylvania Philadelphia suburbs, where Democrats hope to do better than Kerry's margins.

Kerry got the third most votes out of any county from Montgomery, northwest of Philadelphia.

DuHaime said the campaign expects to do well in rural counties. It will be interesting to see if McCain can beat Bush's margins in the so-called T and if he shrinks margins in or flip Western PA counties won by Kerry, like Fayette, Beaver and Washington.

McCain's team will also be watching Florida and Virginia on the East Coast and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in the West, DuHaime said.

Duhaime stressed that 8% of the vote came out of the Republican stronghold of the Central Time Zone Panhandle. And they'll be watching the swing counties around Tampa as well as the margins in the I-4 corridor.

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John McCain/Sara Palin ticket in the year 2008.

I know many conservatives at my place of employment who have given a great deal of money to the Republican Party for many many years. These conservatives stopped giving money to the GOP and are not voting today because they cannot vote for a ticket with Sarah Palin on it. They are very unhappy with the road John McCain took in this campaign.

I know many democrats at my place of employment who were always going to vote for Barack Obama but went out of their way this morning to be sure they were in line early. The reason? The Rev. Wright ad.

If you are a football fan, a basketball fan, a college football fan, you will see many African Americans playing their hearts out. These same athletes, United States citizens, have to look at the Rev. Wright ad over and over and over.

John McCain, there are millions of people in this country who, for their own personal reasons, will never again respect you as a candidate, as an American or as a man.

A diariest yesterday on the DailyKos wrote about going to a talk this past weekend where the guest speaker was Karl Rove. This diariest  got up to the microphone and demanded answers from Karl Rove over our torture issue. Karl Rove accused this person of being un-American.

To this person, whoever you may be, I say thank you. You may have had the final word and committed the last act of bravery in standing up to this despicable man. All you did was  quite possibly put the next to last nail in the Bush years. The voters will finish the job.

Bless you. You are my hero, as are the thousands of diarists & campaign volunteers & fundraisers over @ DailyKos.
Breaking News: Black Panthers using intimidation in Philadelphia to discourage voters. Check news channels now.
Obama will win PA by as much, if not more than Kerry did. He has a strong following in the cities and even some conservatives see him as a better option than McCain.
Must not be many whites voting today.

Total population: 299 million
White
Including 23.2 million White Hispanics: 74% or 221.3 million
Not including White Hispanics: 66% or 198.1 million
Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, of any race: 14.8% or about 44.3 million
Black or African American alone: 13.4% or 40.9 million
Some other race alone: 6.5% or 19 million
Asian alone: 4.4% or 13.1 million
Two or more races: 2.0% or 6.1 million
American Indian or Alaska Native alone: 0.68% or 2.0 million
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander alone: 0.14% or 0.43 million
So in other words, the McCain camp will be watching the battleground states. Those guys are brilliant, aren't they?
Desperate strokes for desperate folks.  

McCain is toast!
As of right now, one national voter protection group says it has received 27,000 reports of problems.
- In Virginia, problems at polling places have been reported from over ten locations all across the state, including Richmond, Portsmouth, Lynchburg, Chesapeake, Vienna, Newport News and Virginia Beach, according to voter protection groups. The most common complaints are about long lines. However, problems with voter registration and polling machines not functioning properly in several locations has also been reported. Some voters are reporting there have been no offers of paper ballots. And even as of 7am, Some polling places were not open.
- Rain in some areas of the state have been causing problems with the optical scanners because of wet ballots.

- In Pennsylvania, Bethlehem, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have reported a number of problems with voting machine malfunctions in, as well as major breakdowns at three precincts in Allegheny County. CBS Newshas confirmed with state officials that there have been machine malfunctions throughout the state.

- There have been reports of a few precincts in Philadelphia running out of paper ballots. People have been given provisional ballots in these cases.[...] State guidelines also dictate that these provisional ballots must be marked “emergency,” so they will be counted with the rest of the ballots today.

- The McCain/Palin campaign has sent out an email stating that Republican election board workers in at least six precincts in Philadelphia have been tossed by the Democrat judge of elections. The reason provided was that they are the “minority party.” They are seeking an injunction in court today for the improper removal of “credentialed” poll workers.

- In Ohio, voting rights groups have received reports out of Columbus that many people are experiencing problems with malfunctioning voter machines, resulting in long lines. In a few of these locations, they say, the machines are not working at all.
Come on Florida and Pennsylvania....McCain needs your votes...get out and vote

The Barackonians over here in Chicago said they might riot if Obama doesn't win in his "Celebration Rally" in Grant Park tonight...they're soo classy I must say
you must be soo proud fellow democrats
Obama is going to breeze throuhg PA and FL,McCain/Palin should concede now. It is going to be a big win for Obama Americans want change and McCain cannot offer us that.
Air Force vet for Obama.

Go O-BAM-A!
if 2 out of PA, VA, NC, FL go Obama, its a long night for the McCain camp (or maybe a short one... guess they could cede defeat then...)

There was an Obama rally in downtown Lincoln, NE last night, and i'll estimate the crowd at about 300.  i'm interested to see how this state votes this year... not a republican guarantee this time...

The Senate Race in NE is getting no publicity, everyone thinking that Johanns will beat Kleeb, but i'm hoping that Kleeb wins out because of huge turnout in the 2nd district, and the 1st district bucking tradition and voting democrat.  Johanns has little love in Lincoln, cutting assistance for child care during his term as governor and mayor here.  Kleeb stayed positive and completely avoided tying Johanns to Bush, which could hurt Kleeb... Johanns is a complete Bush puppet, serving as Secretary of Agriculture for a time, and had Kleeb not held to his word of running a campaign on the issues he could have used this against Johanns easily.

i hope voters embrace Kleeb's approach, as i think he would be a great Senator to replace Hagel.
I see the Democrats have hedged their bets once again, so they can yell "The Republicans Stole the Election".  But what do you expect from people who are voting with their emotions instead of their minds.
Um Joanne, there was change in Cuba in 1959 too. See any parallels?
If I see one more McCain/Palin, let's bash Obama ad I'm going to scream!  
I've lived in a "battleground" state my entire life, and it sucks.  
Yes, I do live and Florida, and Yes, I do know how to vote.  I urge all Florida residents to get their heads out of their butts and try really hard not to screw this one up!  Let's try not to humilate ourselves  in 2008.
To all the Republican McCain/Palin supporters posting comments here today:  There you go again, Black Panthers?  Riots in Grant Park?  You have been so indoctrinated in fear by your Quasi-leaders, you are trapped.  You need to get outside and take a deep cleansing breath, it's a beautiful world, about to be even better.  Please join us, we welcome you.  OBAMA/BIDEN '08
Stick a fork in McCain he is done..Sara Palin can go back to Alaska and watch russia..
no obama will not win florida. he will loose 54 to 36 percent. same in indiana 55% 4 mccain, and ohio will be 60 to 40 4 mccain. surprise surprise! vote now! vote often! i love reverse pyshchology..
My office in PA is a polling place, and the lines have been long all day. We're in a strong McCain precinct, so it seems here that conservatives have come out to vote. But it's hard to believe that there will be enough McCain voters in central PA to overcome Obama voters in Philadelphia. The numbers are just not there.

For my money, it all depends on Virginia. And Obama is ahead there as well. If he takes Virginia, it's over. See www.newscycle.blogspot.com
Crowds already gathering for the rally in Grant Park tonight. Probably 10,000 already on the ground. Police on high state of alert. Traffic is AWFUL! Get there quick or you will miss out.
Warning, do not try to steal this election from Obama. We the American people (ALL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE) will not stand for it !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well Karma seems to be knocking on obama's door !
Saying let's talk about your group ACORN
So, let me get this straight....the McCain camp is going to be watching all the key swing states like the rest of us, huh? Amazing.

                            Obama/Biden '08/'12!
Hey Chicago Republican Disgusted with Democrats...
I live in Chicago, and this is the first I hear about a riot if Obama wins.
Why are you making things up? Boy, you really are a  typical lying, republican follower, and you call yourselves christian conservatives.


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