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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battleground: How the states fell

Posted: Wednesday, November 05, 2008 10:01 AM by Domenico Montanaro

COLORADO: The Denver Post: "From the outset, the campaign veered from traditional Democratic strategy, which limited them to pockets of the country, and instead targeted regions where Democrats don't usually venture. The campaign's mobilization and organizational efforts among volunteers is likely unparalleled in current politics, using everything from text messaging to Internet recruiting."

FLORIDA: Hang This on Your Chad and Poke It! In Florida, Obama paved a path to victory by winning the swing counties on the Gulf Coast and outperforming Kerry and Gore (for that matter) nearly everywhere else, including in Orange, Duval and Volusia counties.

The Miami Herald: "For Florida Democrats, who have tolerated a Republican-controlled state government since the late 1990s and relished few statewide victories since then, Obama's victory signaled a new day. The Democratic nominee didn't just invest in a rusty political infrastructure; he built a new one from the ground up."

GEORGIA: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "The McCain win in Georgia is a tribute to the state Republican Party's ability to set aside its differences and work for the good of the party. McCain lost the February primary, and at the state Republican convention, speaker after speaker mentioned how McCain was their first choice.But McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential nominee seemed to change that. Evangelical conservatives, some of whom distrusted McCain, saw in Palin a kindred spirit and moved solidly back into the fold."

INDIANA: Hoosier Daddy: There isn’t much to compare what Obama did in Indiana. Think about this, not only had the Hoosier State not gone for a Democrat since 1964, it also was a 20-point margin for Bush just four years ago. It's just emblamatic of how much a tectonic election this was. How’d Obama do it? With the organization he built there during the primaries, he beat Kerry’s margins in Marion and Lake and flipped several counties, including, Vigo, Vanderburgh, Perry, Spencer, Madison, Delaware, Vermillon and St. Joseph’s. It turned out not to be just about a few counties. Remember, there’s a reason Obama held that rally in places like Evansville in Vanderburgh the night of Pennsylvania primary.

"While Obama was rewriting the nation's history, he was making history in Indiana, well, eking out a razor-thin victory here. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the state in 44 years. McCain won many rural counties with 60 percent or more of the vote, but Obama offset that with big margins in many larger counties, including Marion, St. Joseph and Lake, a Democratic stronghold near his hometown of Chicago." 

IOWA: The Des Moines Register's Yepsen calls Obama's victory speech "It was moving oratory and a tonic for a weary nation anxious to move on." 

MISSOURI: No showing of results from the Show-Me state as of this writing, but the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers this county analysis: "In St. Charles County, another Republican stronghold, McCain appeared to be performing slightly below Bush's 2004 numbers. Obama, meanwhile, was outpolling Kerry by a significant margin in urban and suburban parts of the state. In the city of St. Louis, Obama's edge was 108,000 votes."

NEVADA: Silver (State) Surfer: Obama won Nevada convincingly. We’d heard a lot about the Dems’ new voter registration edge in traditionally Republican areas like Washoe County. In fact, Obama flipped Washoe, 55%-43%. It was a place Bush won 51%-47% in 2004. Obama also fared better than Kerry in rural northeastern Elko. Bush had won it 76%-19%, but Obama shrunk the margins. He still lost, but gained almost 10 percentage points, 68%-28%, in a place he made nearly half a dozen stops this cycle.

Early vote, says the Las Vegas Sun, was key to Obama's victory. "The Democrat scored surprisingly strong numbers in early returns in Nevada, putting the state out of reach for his rival, Republican John McCain.

NEW YORK: "Democrats won control of the State Senate last night for the first time in 43 years by ousting veteran Republicans in Suffolk and Queens." 

NORTH CAROLINA: If Obama pulls out the still-not-called Tar Heel State, it will have pulled a "hat trick" -- party wins in the Senate, governor, and presidential races -- for the first time since 1960. 

OHIO: The Columbus Dispatch: "Democrats, riding the coattails of Barack Obama, regained control of the Ohio House on Tuesday for the first time since Verne Riffe ended his 20-year reign as Speaker in 1994." 

PENNSYLVANIA: Per the Philly Inquirer: "If many western Pennsylvanians are racists, as U.S. Rep. John Murtha blurted recently, it appears that some found a way to vote for a black man anyway and that others stayed home in yesterday's election. Or maybe, as Murtha later said, he was wrong about his constituents. Democrat Barack Obama cruised to a comfortable win in the Keystone State with a strong turnout in Philadelphia and a big win in its suburbs. He also made inroads into traditional Republican areas elsewhere in the state, where turnout was down compared to four years ago."

VIRGINIA: Super NoVA: Obama rode to victory in Virginia, the first time for a Democrat since 1964, in part because of increased margins in Northern Virginia. He won Loudon 53%-47% (Bush won it 56%-44%); Fairfax 59%-41% (Kerry won it 53%-46%); Arlington: Obama 69%-30% (Kerry 63%-32%); Prince William 56%-44% (Bush won it 53%-46%). Additionally, Obama got a wide 72%-28% win out of Alexandria. Elsewhere, Obama also blew out Kerry's margin in Albermarle. Kerry won it 51%-49%; Obama took it 59%-40%. Obama also flipped Henrico (Richmond and suburbs). Bush had won it 54%-46%; Obama won it by about the reverse margin, 56%-44%, a net 20-percentage point change.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch: 'In the end, Virginia's 13 electoral votes didn't matter. Obama won enough formerly red states elsewhere to wrap up the Electoral College without Virginia. But Obama's defeat of Sen. John McCain in Virginia represented a milestone in the Democratic Party's upward march in the state." 

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Comments

I live on the border of Illinois and Indiana.  What amazed me last night was that Fountain, Vermillion, and (I think) Parke counties all went for Obama.  These are rural areas where the vote must have been very close.

I am also so pleased at the vote from Richmond, VA.  Virginia was a key to this victory, make no mistake about it.  I originally hail from Fairfax County, and NoVa did just what they needed to to put President Obama over the top.

Thanks to everyone who voted.  Now the work of the country can begin in earnest.  Dig in.
it is time for the hate to stop.  We need to work together as a country if we are ever to break away from the past 8 years, where partisanship was the rule.  Obama can turn the corner for us and hopefully congress will work together to help him turn our country around.
What about the "Bradley affect"? I am gonna run this thing in the ground because most pundits thought for sure that there would be one...HA!
What a great victory for secular democracy after having our country hijacked by the despicable hateful evangelical christian lunatic fringe crowd!  Finally we see the total repudiation of the christian conspiracy of ralph reed and jerry falwell's immoral minority!

A lot of states gave us a pleasant surprise as they overcame their long held prejudices and gave their support to Barack.  Looks like Barack wins North Carolina by a slim margin.  Still some states like Minnesota and Georgia returned truly disgusting hatemongers like Bachman, Westmoreland and Chambliss.  Shame on you folks for voting for such trash!

Obama really showed he had the winning strategy and he truly changed the electoral map.  His battleground state strategy was impressive.

Yes We Did!
DING DONG BUSH IS GONE, HOPE things work the way everybody wants but heres to dissent may we never lose the ability to say the KING HAS NO CLOTHES.ENJOY obammawannbes reality starts 1/20/09.get of your lazy butts and help your neighbor with their bills help old people help childern by curbing your vulgar language lets see what inspiration is all about or go back and watch yes we can turn into what are you going to do for me.Ask rev. Wright if god damns america today.Macain is a honorable american and everyone should be happy with the way we exchange power without massacring each othe and committing genocide GOOD JOB USA
YES WE CAN!!!!!  IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR OBAMA WITH THE MESS WE ARE IN-HE STATED THIS HE HIMSELF IS NOT PERFECT AND WILL MAKE MISTAKES BUT I KNOW OUR CHANCES OF CHANGE ARE MUCH BETTER WITH HIM STEERING THE VESSEL

I CRIED SO MUCH-HILLARY PUT 18 MILLION CRACKS IN THE GLASS CEILING BUT OBAMA SHATTERED THE GLASS CEILING BY CROSSING THE BARRIERS

PROUD TODAY TO SAY I AM DEMOCRAT AND AN AMERICAN
NEW YORK: "Democrats won control of the State Senate last night for the first time in 43 years by ousting veteran Republicans in Suffolk and Queens."

----------------------------------------------

While some of this may be attributed to Obama's coat-tails, I think it also has to do with the most powerful Republican in New York, current Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno, not seeking re-election.
The first inkling I got that Obama was going to win was when they called Pennsylvania in his favor so early in the evening.  Then came Ohio.  Then came the landslide.
Just a quick congratulations to the Democrats!

Locally, we had a plenty of success here in my county in Iowa. Got a few County Supervisors elected and a few memebers to our State House selected. We showed some great gains here in our county.

As a Republican, now we go back to the drawing board. We've had plenty of success these past 14 years. Won the Congress in 1994 thanks to the 'Contract with America' and had 6 years with a Repub in the WH.

We had plenty of missed opportunities however. We failed to get Social Security Reform through (my driving issue) in part because Bush failed to show any leadership on the issue. And we grew the size of government.

If we can get back in touch with our classically liberal ideals of individualism, and the central role of governement being to maximize folk's liberty, then we will be just fine.

I am confident our Repub Central Committee meeetings these next 2 years will come with finger pointiing, and some soul searching in front of the mirror. But we will come back stronger than ever. I take inspiration from my former precint chair in New Mexico when meetings got heated, he would stand up and remind the Republicans that "we are all Republicans, we need to remain united".

Republicans lost last night and in 2006 because we acted like Democrats.
We Democrats in Virginia held our breath long enough that we finally turned blue!!!!!!!
Tears, joy, wishes that our children took part and understood, thoughts and memories--an Arkansas campus with only one black male and one black female student, an awakening to a different world (I went to high school in Southern California, moved to Arkansas in 1960 to go to college) from what I had known, freedom marches for a freedom I did not know did not exist, an accidental use of a "Colored" water fountain, answering the phone in an army headquarters to hear a voice say "Our commander-in-chief has been assassinated, a stop for a black hitchhiker on a rainy back road in Arkansas who looked at me so hesitantly when I offered him a ride, a trip to Selma in 1965, a trip through Memphis on the afternoon of April 4, 1968 on the way to Ohio, serving as defense voice for female and minority coworkers, the fruitless fight against psychological violence in the workplace, ... would there ever be a time when we became people instead of colored images?

Yes.  Yes there will.  It is here.

Thank you all.
I AM SO OVER JOYED!!!! I AM OH SO VERY HAPPY!!! I CAN HARDLY WRAP MY MIND AROUND WHAT AMERICA HAS DONE. NOW WE EACH MUST DO OUR PART!!!! I DO BELIEVE BARACK OBAMA HAS BEEN A GOD SEND!!!!!!!
The American people have stated loud and clear we no longer will tolerate dirty, malicious tactics and want a person of honor and integrity to lead our country.
Thank God the Rove, swiftboating politicking is
no more.
Mccain made many mistakes, the most important,
insulting the intelligence of Midde Class America.
No words can describe how awesome this feels...President Obama.. OMG, it's mind blowing, and that's the best word I can come up with.

GOD BLESS AMERICA!
Virginia voters ----- YES YOU DID MATTER!   Even though the race was called, your hard work on behalf of Senator Obama mattered greatly.   You folks in Virginia are to be congratulated for your efforts.   All of us in the other states applaud what you did!

I agree with Yepsen from the DesMoines Register --- Obama's victory was "...tonic for a weary nation anxious to move on".   Well spoken!

Congratulations to David Plouffe, David Axelrod for an outstanding job.

I feel like a huge weight has been lifted from my shoulders knowing that President-elect Obama will be in charge of our great nation.

OBAMA/BIDEN '08/'12
To every hick, church going, gun polishing, clueless republican who continue to post negativly now that it is over-IT'S OVER! Time to unite, so stop with the idiotic remarks and stand with the rest of your country that was smart enough to vote him in. I've actually read a few post that call for division of this great country. Now I relize that that's coming from the truly imbred country folk, but for God's sake pick up a history book. It didn't work out too well the last time it happened.
McCain's defeat can be summed up in two words: Sarah Palin.  In catering to the red-meat extreme right-wing of the GOP, they abandoned the more moderate section of the party, leaving them to be picked up by Obama's more centrist message.  He (and the GOP) will have a long time to think about what went wrong, and what their party will be in the future.

CONGRATULATIONS TO PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA!
http://jawillie.blog.com
Palin may have been a good choice for the christian conservatives; however, she was an awful choice to sway moderates and especially independents.
Hallelujah!!!!!!!!FLA HAS BEEN REDEEMED. After what happened in 2000 is this not wonderful and extraordinary? No hanging chads, butterfly ballots, Bride of Frankenstein Harris, Brother Jeb, Gop out of towner wearing boot traps of the brown type, dad's well connected statesman/attorney pal Baker, and finally the gop appointed U.S. SUPREME COURT. To all of the right wing so called evangelical christain hate/fear mongers. YOU REAP WHAT YOU SEW! President Elect Obama and the majority who just elected him NOW have to fix the astronomical crap you so called fiscal conservative have left for future generations.Your Rovian quest for party fascism control over others who do not fit the definition of you are'Real Americans.You- Palin are a female version of george goodriddance bush. We progressives of the world have regained our wonderful  country that our founding father created everyone EXCEPT GAYS equal. This is truly an historic and transcendental moment in time. GOD WATCH OVER US!
I am greatful for the strong win. I still do not understand and cannot in reason see why anyone at all voted for McCain and Palin. I lost all trust in McCain after he began his dirty campaign of lies and accusations meant only to mislead. I once respected the man but no longer. Even his positive concession speech made me wonder about the man's basic honesty. As for Palin: just another reason not to vote for the ticket. Her interview with the fake president of France was a final testament to her shallow political preparedness. And, finally: the Republican party organization has lost its way. It is not center right, it is so far right and devoid of its intellectual base that it makes me shiver. I can almost see the base polishing their boots. Unless they find their way back to an honestly inclusive party based upon American values and not upon the values of the few and extreem, they will struggle to win again. Of course, there always is the possibility of such a difficult economic recovery, more war, and disasters unknown coupled with sloppy congressional leadership that could lead the Democrats to make the same mistakes as the Republicans. We will then be left with lots more angry voters and be open to more extreemist populist and ultimately unprepared candidates such as a Sarah Palin.
Obama swept the nation. He not only won, but did so in decidedly.  I shouted for joy everytime the country turned another shade of blue. What a magnificent thing to witness.

Kudos to Obama for his steadiness and maturity during this lonngggg campaign. He set the standard along with a marvelous campaign crew. Everyone involved deserves credit.  They are truly, TRULY top notch.

Come hell or high water, I will be in Washington, D.C. for the Inauguration.  

Thanks MSNBC and my fellow bloggers for helping me get through it. It has been a fun ride!!
No matter what others say, Gov. Sarah Palin is
an outstanding woman who is not afraid to face
current cynics. She is courageous. Thank God for
her values and beliefs. It's rare nowadays to
find a politician in her calibre.
It was not just a bad year for Republicans because of circumstances. The party has pampered and courted the super right to the point that they lost the center and more liberal members. McCain was rarely focused, the campaign was dirty and super negative when the people were sick of it, and they never seemed to have any principals or direction. With that they lost independants. The R party has long sucked up to the likes of Rove and Limbaugh and the fundamentalists. They have lost their intellectual base by throwing them and their ideas aside. What now exists is not the USA Republican Party. They should rename the party. Maybe they could find a name somewhere in the pre-WWII era that fits.
Hallelujah!!!!
I've never been more proud of my country.  After 8 very long and trying years, we will have someone in the White House who actually gives a damn about us.
The nightmare of the past 8 years ends on Jan. 21!
What a joy it will be to have a President with a strong intellect, the wisdom to make reasoned choices, and the ability to put together more than two words. We will no longer have to cringe in embarassment when our "leader" opens his mouth!
The fact that Senator Obama won this race so convincingly should come as no surprise to the intellectual at heart. For the, not so intellectual at heart, all you need is a belief in the fundamentals of fair over unfairness, smart strategies over "not so smart strategies", discipline over distraction. This should not have been perceived to be and neither do I believe was ever about race?
How do you decide to pick a mediocre "popular" Alaskan governor who has gotten ahead based on charm and happenstance as your Vice Presidential candidate without the necessary vetting, just because you wanted to stand true to being a maverick?
How do you (as a Republican candidate after Bush's 8 disastrous years)decide to run this election with undue emphasis on catering to the base as opposed to an all inclusive strategy to appeal to the majority?
The republicans have been the popular choice for too many years and I do believe were became complacent. This election should serve as the wake-up alarm to the realization that America actually does have more poor than rich, more "other races combined" than whites, more educated than misinformed and overall more aware of the urgent need to catch up with the rest of the world.


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