First thoughts: The transition game
Posted: Thursday, November 06, 2008 9:38 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The transition game: With the presidential election over, the big political story moves from the horserace to the speculation over who will serve in the new Obama Administration. The first job offer went to Rahm Emanuel for the role of White House chief of staff. Emanuel’s office denied that he had accepted the job, but the smart money has to be on him taking it. (After all, what would be the perception that Obama’s first job offer was rejected? Still, the family consideration issue is real; he would have to move his family from Chicago, and he'd also have to give up his dream of being Speaker). Yet given the nation’s economic crisis, perhaps the top position Obama has to fill is Treasury secretary. The names: former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, Tim Geithner of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, former Fed Chair Paul Volker, Warren Buffett, J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and possibly even someone like New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, who was once head of Goldman Sachs.
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VIDEO: Obama and his team announce a plan for transition of power. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.
*** More Speculation: Interestingly, there's been an oppo dump on Summers to the
Huffington Post; the last thing Obama needs is drama with potential appointees. A Volker/Buffett appointment is actually something Obama would warm up to in that he may like the idea of bringing in an elder statesman to oversee the crisis while he finds someone else for the long term. As for Corzine or Dimon, can Obama really replace one Goldman Sachs alum with another, or replace one Wall Street guy with another? And because of the focus on finding a new Treasury secretary is priority one, the "keep Gates at the Pentagon" chatter is prominent. Also, which Republicans might be a part of Obama’s cabinet? NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday that Sen. Dick Lugar isn’t interested (still, what happens if Obama, himself, personally offers him the State job?), but folks like outgoing Sen. Chuck Hagel and Colin Powell might be. And how about some of the moderate Republicans who lost on Tuesday? Chris Shays? Also, smart money is on Robert Gibbs as White House press secretary.
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the efforts underway to create an Obama administration.
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The knives are out for Palin: Don’t miss today’s piece in the
New York Times about the infighting between the McCain and Palin camps. Some of the anecdotes: Not only were the McCain folks upset that Palin took the crank call from Canadian comedians posing as Sarkozy, but Palin failed to notify the McCain camp that she was going to speak with the supposed French leader. Also, RNC lawyers are perhaps heading to Alaska to take an inventory of the clothes that Palin purchased. Folks, this could get nasty. And before Palin can think about 2012 or beyond, she has to first survive the leaks we are about to see in the coming days. And it's not just the New York Times piece --
Newsweek's always good "what happened?" special issue has lots of negative Palin stories. Palin may be someone who struggled because she never had handlers/advisers before. Well, given the white-hot intensity of the post-election spin war, she's going to need to find her own unofficial defense team.
VIDEO: Palin tells reporters she can't imagine a run for president in 2012, saying she's ready to get back to her day job as governor of Alaska. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.
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When the CW is wrong: Remember when we heard from Hillary Clinton supporters at the tail end of the Democratic primary season that Obama would have a difficult time winning Florida and Ohio, and would struggle with Hispanics, Jews, and white working-class voters? Well, he won Florida and Ohio; he beat McCain 2-to-1 among Hispanics; he did better with Jews (winning then 78%-21%) than John Kerry did in 2004 (74%-25%); and he essentially matched Kerry’s performance among working-class whites. So what did we learn here: that primary results and exit polls aren’t necessarily good predictors about what will happen in the general election. Interestingly, this CW was driven a bit by the McCain campaign. One wonders if they sat back during the end of the Democratic primary and over-analyzed it, forgetting that 90-95% of those voters who voted in the Dem primary contests were DEMOCRATS! And they weren't likely to vote for a Republican under just about any circumstance. Did the McCain campaign chase voters that they never had a shot at? Could be...
*** Carolina on our mind: For all those with money riding on the presidential results in North Carolina, mark Nov.14th on your calendar. With all precincts reporting in the traditionally red state, Obama leads by about 12,000 votes but networks have not yet called the race due to outstanding provisional ballots. State Board of Elections Director Gary Bartlett estimates that there are about 40,000 provisional ballots to be certified by county elections officials, and that 65% of those will be deemed valid by authorities. Once audited, the final vote count of those ballots will be verified by county officials who meet on the morning of November 14th; the State Board of Elections will formally certify that final count on Nov. 25th. But with provisional ballots usually reflecting the vote margins of the electorate, Bartlett tells First Read, do not expect the 12,000-vote margin in Obama's favor to shift dramatically. By all indications, the Tar Heel State looks like -- against the odds -- will end up in the blue column for the first time since 1976. By the way, if Missouri was a decisive state in the electoral college, we'd be talking about St. Louis City and county and lots of provisional ballots. While we've called Missouri for McCain, remember we said he's the "apparent" winner; we're well aware, more vote count has a way of just showing up.
*** When Harry met Joe: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have a closed meeting with Sen. Joe Lieberman sometime today, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. While both offices have refused to discuss details of the meeting, the men are expected to discuss Lieberman's fate as chairman of the Homeland Security Committee and possibly his status within the Democratic caucus -- after Lieberman vigorously campaigned for McCain and against Obama. At one time, Reid still seemed to reluctantly stand by Lieberman, arguing that every vote was significant and that punishing Lieberman could force him to switch to the Republican Party. But as the election progressed with estimates showing that Democrats might pick up several more seats -- as they did -- Reid's talk of support changed to talk of post-election reevaluation. Strickland says this meeting is a step in that process. The thing for reporters to ask today: Does Obama have an opinion on this? Should Obama have a say in Lieberman's fate? After all, it was Obama whom Lieberman campaigned against the hardest, not the Democratic Party as a whole. Lieberman wasn't out there campaigning for Republican senators to win re-election. Will Obama urge his soon-to-be former Senate colleagues to not punish Lieberman?
*** What’s left: Speaking of the Senate, there are four undecided races, and here’s the skinny on each. 1) ALASKA: Both Democrats and Republicans believe that incumbent -- and indicted -- GOP Sen. Ted Stevens will probably hold on to victory. (Though some have found it striking that there appears to be fewer voters for this election with a favorite daughter on the ballot than in 2004?!?!? Something tells us there are a LOT more ballots to be counted. There were over 300,000 voters in 2004; With 99% of precincts supposedly reporting, there are less than 220,000 voters; Seriously?!?!? Call us conspiracy theorists if you'd like, but logic dictates that there must be a heckuva a lot more vote to be counted in Alaska.) But if Stevens is declared the winner, that's just the beginning of the story. Stevens faces possible expulsion from the Senate, or he might resign first to avoid that fate. If Stevens resigns or is expelled, Gov. Sarah Palin would have to call for a special election, which would take place 60 to 90 days after Palin called for it. 2) GEORGIA: With incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss sitting just under 50%, we're possibly headed to a December 2 run-off between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. Could there be a recount to determine the run-off? Can the state afford to do that and still allow for a December 2 run-off? 3) MINNESOTA: Given that the current margin separating Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken is just a few hundred votes, we're headed for an automatic recount. Democrats tell First Read that this recount could stretch into December. 4) OREGON: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley is currently leading incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, and both Democrats and Republicans believe it will stay that way due to the fact that most of the outstanding vote is in Democratic-leaning areas. That would give the Democrats an additional Senate pick-up.
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VIDEO: MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell looks at the senate seats still up for grabs.
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To expel or not to expel: NBC’s Strickland also breaks down what may happen to Stevens if he’s re-elected. Any member of the Senate can offer a motion to expel at any time, and it requires 67 votes to pass. But just because it's offered, doesn't mean Majority Leader Reid will call it up for a vote. Reid's office won't discuss his intentions, and his public statement seems to put the onus on Republicans to deal with Stevens. A more desirable scenario, according to Democratic and GOP aides, is for Stevens to resign on his own without the spectacle of a public vote. But Stevens' own actions suggest the Alaska senator will not go gently. The dilemma for Republicans is initiating the expulsion process on their most senior member before Stevens has a chance to appeal his verdict. For Democrats, the dilemma is giving soaring speeches about taking corruption out of Washington, but when allowed the opportunity to expel a convicted felon with a simple vote they sit on their hands. Expect senior Republican leaders to privately approach Stevens about quitting on his own. And if that doesn't work, then wait to see which member -- if any -- will call for an expulsion vote, and if Reid will allow it. The Senate resumes session on November 17th.
*** I will survive, hey, hey: The lion's share of analysis of Tuesday's downballot races pulled out a tape measure for Obama's coattails. Wins like Bev Perdue's in North Carolina's gubernatorial race and the Udall cousins in New Mexico and Colorado -- while not solely products of Obama's success -- certainly weren't hurt by his unprecedented ground games in battleground states. But while the GOP's defeats in the West and the Northeast reveal a lot about the party's weaknesses, its survivors in some blu(ish, purple) states may point the way to its future. Indiana's incumbent Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, for example, survived a challenge from a financially troubled Democratic opponent and is diving into a second-term agenda that focuses on creative fiscal solutions, scholarship funding, and a business-friendly executive style. And GOP senator Susan Collins in Maine, once eyed as a prime target by Democrats but buoyed by a record of bipartisanship, breezed by challenger Tom Allen. (With Senate flips in NH and NC, that makes Maine the only remaining state with two Republican senators that voted blue in the presidential race.) Does this speak more to the position of the country and who does well? Moderates. Even among Democrats who flipped Republican seats, they were "conservative" Democrats largely. Does this speak of a possible realignment -- to the center?
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 63 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 75 days
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