Do guns still matter?
Posted: Thursday, November 06, 2008 5:16 PM by Carrie Dann
From NBC's Carrie Dann
During the Democratic primary, when Barack Obama told donors in San Francisco that "bitter" voters in hardscrabble Pennsylvania "cling to their guns and religion," the words rang like music in his political opponents' ears. Obama foes hoped that the senator's inartful description of economically-strapped gun enthusiasts would cut his support from rural whites off at the knees.
The comment also put an exclamation point on Obama's record on guns, which has drifted to the center since his days as an Illinois state senator. As the general election heated up, the National Rifle Association announced an eye-popping $15 million ad campaign intended to serve as a loudspeaker for suspicions about Obama's alleged hidden intention to limit gun ownership.
But as the vote margins of the presidential race rolled in, the one-time wedge issue of the Second Amendment did not seem to pack the national-stage punch for which the influential gun lobby had aimed. Nationally, gun owners broke for McCain by almost the identical margin that they broke for Bush in 2004. But in the states where the NRA Political Victory Fund's toughest efforts against Obama were concentrated -- gun-rich regions in states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico -- Obama’s victory was decisive. The Democratic nominee won those states by eight, 11, and 15 points, respectively. Of the 11 states where the NRA's anti-Obama ads were reportedly aired, McCain won only one: Texas.
Down the ballot, the NRA backed all six of the Republican Senate candidates who lost to Democratic challengers. And in several high-profile House contests, NRA-backed candidates like Ed Tinsley, Bill Sali, Steve Chabot, and Phil English came up short.
But the ballot results also showed that advocacy of gun rights served as a cache calling card for some successful conservative Democrats. Many of the centrist Dems who fared well on Tuesday -- like Bobby Bright (AL-02), Harry Teague (NM-02), John Boccieri (OH-16) and Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) -- have high ratings from the NRA.
(Halvorson even won their endorsement. But three other Democrats in competitive races who received endorsements from the NRA – Don Cazayoux (LA-06), Tim Mahoney (FL-16), and Nick Lampson (TX-22) -- lost their reelection bids.)
Gun control activists like Paul Helmke, the president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, believe that the Supreme Court's recent decision in Heller v. District of Columbia, which affirmed gun ownership as an individual right, assuaged gun owners' fears about having "their guns taken away," reducing some of the Second Amendment's bite as a wedge issue.
The apparent lack of salience of gun rights and other social issues may be due, in large part, to the deafening wave of economic woes that dominated voters' decision-making this cycle. Still, the influence of the once-dominant gun lobby appears to be up for debate, at least until the 2010 election.
