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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Senate: 60 is still possible

Posted: Friday, November 07, 2008 1:17 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC’s Doug Adams
The Democrats' road to 60 Senate seats isn't dead yet.

Yes, it's a long road, with a lot of twists and turns and "ifs," but it's still possible.

With the win in Oregon yesterday, they now have picked up six, and control 57 total seats.

In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman leads Al Franken by a scant 237 votes, and NBC’s John Yang reports that Democrats are hopeful Franken can make up that difference in a recount. If the Democrats can pull out a squeaker in Minnesota, they'd be sitting at 58.

In Alaska, the race isn't over yet either -- Democrat Mark Begich trails embattled Ted Stevens by 3,400 votes, but there are 55,000 absentee and provisional ballots that won't be counted until next week. So if the Dems pull that one out too, then they're at 59.

If both of those things happen, then it gets really interesting. That would leave the potential 60th seat as the Georgia runoff next month.  Official word should come early next week, but that runoff would be scheduled for Dec. 2nd.  

The conventional wisdom is that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss would win any runoff, because African Americans likely won't turn out in the same numbers for a runoff. And national Republicans would be motivated to win this one after the stinging losses this week. 

But if Georgia is the magical 60th seat for Democrats -- would that prompt Obama to invest time, attention and campaign resources to the Democratic effort?

That would change the equation. Should be fascinating.

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Comments

Even if they accomplish ALL that (which is impossible) they would still be sitting at 59 (-1 lieberman)
Yes We Can!
I don't think the Dems will get it -- and to be honest I believe that is a good thing.

However, it will indeed be very interesting to watch how Obama treats the run-off election in Georgia.  My guess is that he's going to be a bit pre-occupied with transition business.... at least I HOPE he is pre-occupied.

http://thepajamapundit.com/
This must be why the Republicans are trying to court Lieberman.
Regardless of which caucus he's in, I'd have to think Lieberman would often be on the same side as the Dems on filibuster votes anyway.
Elections are a lot of fun, I suspect Franken may pull it out, and Stevens will survive so it becomes a moot point on Chamblis. That said there is a lot of pent up anger among Democrats over the way Chamblis one the first time so I would not be surprised to see a good bit of resources poured into the runoff to get him out of there.

And look to your own note below: Joe LIEberman is talking to the Senate Republican Leadership about jumping ship.
In elections, and politics anything is possible. To productively, positively, and proudly move our nation forward economically the Democrats need to win 60 seats. As for the GOP/RNC. America will be watching politically what they are doing. So no "funny" political business GOP/RNC. Got it!!
Wasn't Al Franken on the Old Show "Solid Gold" with the Solid Gold Dancers? (Dionne Warwick)
I don't think that 60 Senate seats is possible but we're getting close enough that a few moderate republican votes can overcome any fillibuster.

How about Obama going to the PTA meeting this morning?  He preached that parents should be more responsible for their kid's education and here he is today going to a PTA meeting practicing what he preached despite being the busiest man in America!  This is the kind of leadsership that we've needed for so long and which G "Worst" B could never provide.

One Small Step for a Black Man,
One Giant Leap for our Secular Democracy!

Yes We Did!
Very facinating: Campaign Resources--Think about it...Money, the Obama GOTV worker bees. If we can win in Indiana, we might just be able to win in Georgia.
Stevens and the hillbillies from Alaska are the joker in this deck.  Stevens the felon is going to get cooked one way or the other and then will it be Todd or his uneducated wife taking over.  

Just pray that Begich wins.
Yes We Can!

the youth! (Sent Friday, November 07, 2008 1:34 PM)

Prove it.
You know what?  I almost hope the Dems don't get to 60- because that gives Joe Lieberman way too much power.  There are enough Repub senators from blue states (ie. Snowe, Collins, and Grassley) that will need to embrace certain bipartisan efforts in order to appease their constituents.  Let Benedict Lieberman stay with the GOP- they deserve each other.
Its even optimistic to call this scenario a long shot. It's just way too improbable.  And while I am a loyal Democrat, and voted Obama, I feel that being just shy of a filibuster proof senate, will force Senate Democrats to court, i.e reach across the proverbial aisle, and actually work with some moderate republicans to get their agenda passed. In fact, this should be what happens, because it is moderate Dems who were elected this year that gave the Senate Dems their larger majority, and in order to keep them, the Senate Dems need to advance a moderate agenda, from the center, and not from the far left like a bunch of kids let loose in a candy store.  This scenario forces a bit of restraint on the Dems.
Convicted felon mean ANYTHING AT ALL to those Eeeeelaskans? Helllloooooooo?? Anyone home??? Someone??
As much as I'm a card-carrying liberal wienie, and deep down really just want my party to leave the GOP out in the cold, I'm a little relieved that the Dems may not get a filibuster-proof majority. It will force them to be humble in the face of a stunning victory over the failed policies of the past decade. It will force a degree of bipartisanship. It will be good for the country. But man, after all the slime and innuendo coming out of the McCain campaign, I really want to rub it in their faces now. The blue states are Real America now, hahaha.
Oh, pleeezeee let Al Franken win!! And make John Kerry Sec. of State!! And Patrick Kennedy head of the EPA! We just can't get enough jokes of so called men on board for the Obama administration, with the head joke sitting in the Oval Office. 75 seats, minimum, the Republicans will win back in the House in 2010.
There is a slim chance that all those "ifs" will happen at once.  If the Senate Democrats get the 60, it still doesn't mean that there won't be filibusters.  There are some "Blue Dog" Democrats from the South and other locations.  That could keep the filibuster problem going.
Let the Democrats get 60. They'll foul this country up worse then you could ever believe possible, and there will be no one else to blame but them.
They don't really need 60 Dems.  On any given issue they can usually pull 2 or 3 of the moderate Republicans over to their side on the issue.   Remember, some of these people like Susan Collins are from Dem states.
I am guessing the 'hard core' obama volunteers will descend on that state and turn it blue.  I recall after the primaries they were able to effect other local political races - a mayor in South Carolina?

I tend to agree with Pajama.  I am a raging liberal; but to govern properly - we've got to find the moderate middle.  People like me hopefully pull tight enough on the Tug-o-war rope to get the flag just over the center - Toward the LEFT.  If you swing too hard; the pendulum becomes a brutal weapon that clobbers you on its way back around.  Case in point?  The Republicans right now.
This must be why the Republicans are trying to court Lieberman.
Dan St. Louis, MO (Sent Friday, November 07, 2008 1:35 PM)

==========
Absolutely!  They'll keep him as their lackey for as long as it benefits them to do so.  Meanwhile, they'll throw him a bone by promising that he'll be the next VP pick in 2012 (yeah, right).

74 Days Until Inauguration Day!
http://jawillie.blog.com
Not gonna happen, but the threat of it will make Republican's a bit less "our way or the highway" in congress because the people have spoken that we won't tolerate do nothings running our congress anymore.

time for some good centrist, people first politics in washington.
I agree with Pajama Pundit - I think we're better off at less than 60 and truly having to work to build a coalition.
It's a real mystery how people in Alaska vote for Stevens, and people in Pennslyvania vote for Murtha, and people in New Orleans vote for Jefferson, and people in New York vote for Rangle. Three of them are crooks, one of them calls the people he represents racists.
If you're looking for a moderate Democrat in the Senate, you won't find one. All are completely in line with the far left liberals and with Obama. Perhaps Landrieu isn't so much, but that's it. Lieberman may move to the Republicans, but he's not even a Democrat anymore anyway.
Rather than worrying about reaching 60 if I were Obama I would meet with the Republican Senators, one at a time or a few at a time, sit back, relax, enjoy some coffee or a beer or two, and call upon their love for this country to work together to do the right things (not what is politically expediant, but the right things). I know their are some Republican Senators out there with some decent souls.
Lieberman is an Independent and thus not factorwed into the above reporting...they can reach 60 without him in the caucus...come on, you should know this.
This is what scares me about the people who vote.
Screw Lieberman, he needs to be thrown under democratic bus and then backed over a few times.  He is a traitor and should be treated as one.  After all that Gore did for him in 2000, Obama deserved better.
The Republicans are sore losers, and acting childish so i hope they get the 60, in order to get thing done quick, and easy...
The real question is: "Are there 60 votes in the center" that can be formed to cut off a filibuster from the conservative right wing? Implied within that is the question: "Is there a body of non-conservative Republicans that are willing to work with Democrats on responsible reform" rather than continuing the failed polarized policies of the past years? And the follow-up, will John McCain try to help move his party in that direction?
I believe that the worse think that the GOP  can do is not cooperate with Mr.Pres.Obama because that will have a great cost in the future and they will give a excuse to the Dems of any mistake.
No suprise,  charts from countries around the world would vote for Obama, except Poland and Chili.

babyboy, Milwaukee, WI (Sent Friday, November 07, 2008 1:03 PM)

++++++++++++

This about sums up the intelligence of today's left-wing. Chili? How about Pastrami? Who do you think they would vote for?
As much as I absolutely abhor Saxby Chambliss and I am a Democrat, I tend to agree that 60 would be a bad situation.

The last administration and previous congress proved 1 party rule is like giveing beer and car keys to teenage boys.  

If we can get to 59 and Saxby lose his job. I would be a happy, happy man.  He is represents everything wrong in the new Theocrats from the South.  Once, populist, they now vacillate between coherent bouts of pragmatism and absolutely insanity.  Its like they are addicted to Fox News, but if they go a day without it their conscience and intellect comeback. I.E. both of Georgia's Senators voted for the Bailout(which somehow is not socialism, but that is lost on the majority of the electorate in Georgia, who was convinced that Obama is a proxy for Marx.  That within itself proves the irony that represents the general knowledge of history and economic theory for the general electorate.  But, I digress.)

Plus, his tactics and use of fear in this election and against Good Ole Max in 2002, prove that he neither does he possess the foresight, he also lacks the congenial nature to be a Southern statesman in the manner Richard B. Russell and Sam Nunn. Would either of them done a television spot morphing their opponent into the greatest threat the US has faced?  Not even Zell Miller's "leaving the land of the sane" would have produced such anti-democratic, anti-American tactics. And that guy is really crazy.

A.K.A Saxby is a huge douche bag.  Who's state ground game mainly consisted of uninformed Young College Republicans who  bordered on being an American version of the "Brown Shirts".  Now, if they did know their history, then that actually would fit the mold of being anti-something, but since they just act and sound like Fascists, it makes you wonder why National Socialism would be such a bad idea.  Oh, it just a dirty word, they really don't know what it means.  I get it.  That is how the "Right Media" does it.  Word association.  Interesting.  Damn all those books and public schooling I received.  I can see right through it.  

Oh, the irony.  
There is another independent who caucuses with the dems.  So, we dems would have the 60, 6 0.
To people like Dennis in Dallas. If you're so worried that this is the end of the United States because we're going to have an intelligent man in the white house, then get the f**k out. Seriously, get over your hate and ignorance. And to all you other psychics who have predicted what is going to happen to our nation, you should be able to predict what finger I'm holding up. Like it or not, the man is going to be your president too.  
Sen Lieberman is a prototype for the DINO, DemocratInNameOnly. In reality-a Democratic majority, in the senate, of is a phantasm.  Live with 59 Democrats.  The Independent, Lieberman, should accept Sen McConnell's invitation to become a Republican in reality & name, RIRAN.  He would caucus with his ideological soul mates.  To sacrifice a Chair before it's taken from him by doctrinaire Democrats will look good for Joe.
Yes, it's like Sarah's daughter marrying her baby's father before the child is born but some charity now before the 111th Congress becomes a no holds & weapons barred brawl would be in order & show what's left of the senate's dignity.  Decorum & dignity will be gone soon.  To paraphrase Lincoln, it'll be animosity to most & contempt for all quite soon.
Campaign Diaries has a detailed update of all 10 remaining congressional races - including the 7 House contests that are waiting for recounts or additional counting: http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/11/07/10-remain/
Leiberman is a traitor and backstabber, the Rethugs can have him.
Although many people have reservations (Especially conservatives)of a "Fillibuster proof" 60 member majority in the senate, I offer you two thoughts as to why this may be the best thing for American's....

#1) After 30 years of divided senate and 2 years of getting ABSOLUTLY NOTHING of signifigance passed, THINGS WILL FINALLY HAPPEN! Win or lose, good or bad, things will get done!

#2) Win or lose, good or bad, things will get done, and we will know EXACTLY WHO TO BLAME for setbacks, incompetence, bd decisions, and stagnation.

I am a liberal Dem. Though it may seem that I have alterior motives, I do not. I want things to actually happen, and I'm tired of parties pointing fingers at each other when something goes wrong, or nothing gets done. If the dems can't get it done, with this large a mojority the blame will fall sqaurely on them.  

So let's give 'em a chance. Things will get done. maybe not the RIGHT things but we will finally be MOVING, and know EXACTLY who's fault it is.

And as an after thought, we Dems would be extremely wise not to over-reach, take it slow and steady, prioritize, and get this country moving forward again!
This guy — Barack Obama, he supported the most radical gun control agenda that's ever been imagined. He voted to ban single shot and double-barrel shotguns. He's voted to ban almost all hunting ammunition. He supported a 500 percent tax increase on guns and ammunition. So this guy is bad news when it comes to the Second Amendment and if people are buying guns, it doesn't really surprise me.
The real question is: "Are there 60 votes in the center" that can be formed to cut off a filibuster from the conservative right wing?

Joe, Berkeley, CA (Sent Friday, November 07, 2008 2:01 PM)

Not even close with the Democrats. There are no moderate Democratic Senators anymore. Republicans? There are a few lead by McCain, but he won't be doing Obama any favors anytime soon. Others Republican moderates are Lugar, Grassley, Snowe, Collins, Graham, and Specter. Most of these will let the Democrats twist in the wind though, excpet for Specter who really doesn't seem to understand what he's doing anymore.
I determined that the Senate would reach 58 and not one more Democrat.  So far, I just may win this bet in South Florida.
Lieberman must know he is in his last term as a Senator from CT. He can't get elected as a REP or IND there anymore.

Detente with Obama is his only hope; and I hope Obama wipes that smug, Poppa-Smurf grin off his face and sends him packing back to CT for some "Community Organizer" training.
The U.S. is at such a crossroads that I don't think 60 is a magic number right now.  I hope that the Senate understands that we need better cooperation than that if we want to move forward.  The GOP is too splintered to move totally as a unit anyway, these days, and I like to think that among those left are Republicans who will vote their conscience and in the best interest of the people they serve, not just along party lines.  That hasn't gotten us very far in the last 8 years, it would seem.
I'm still calling foul on Alaska. There is absolutely no way their voter turnout went down this year.

It's completely inconceivable.

Something stinks in Alaska and it ain't day old salmon.

http://www.rodneyhopper.com
"And look to your own note below: Joe LIEberman is talking to the Senate Republican Leadership about jumping ship."---------------I would be if I was him. Even though he votes mostly democratic the democratic party has been grilling him for years. The "party of tolerance" is in reality the party of lock step voting.
Whoever said Lieberman is not included in that count is wrong .. he and Bernie sanders are included in the Democratic count because they are part of the Democratic caucus.

So if they kick Lieberman out, they cannot reach 60. But I almost think kicking Lieberman out is worth it.
Forget the Republicans courting Lieberman;

Forget about having that "magical" 60 seat majority;

We should be identifying and courting those moderate Republicans who actually want to move the country forward...

With that said; YES, we would dearly love to get rid of Chambliss!!

If Obama can find time to come down to GA for a couple of visits, I believe that would do the trick!!
Pajama,

I agree. Absolute power corrupts. How many more abortions would we have had, if not for the voice of the repubs crying in the wilderness? We need balanced consultations. I am a liberal, but appreciate some of my conservative brothers, and sisters ideas. We need them. They need us.  


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