First thoughts: Hat in hand
Posted: Tuesday, December 02, 2008 9:36 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Hat in hand: Obama today will be in Philadelphia, where he and Biden will sit down with Democratic and Republican governors, who want the federal government to help their states during these difficult economic times. Per the Obama transition office, Obama, Biden, and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) will make brief remarks at the top of the meeting -- which, besides pooled coverage at the beginning, will be closed to the press. But the governors aren’t the only ones who are begging for cash today. The automotive chiefs are back on Capitol Hill, hoping for a do-over after their disastrous previous trip to Congress. One big difference from last time: They aren’t arriving by private plane. But choosing a different mode of transportation is much easier than convincing a skeptical Congress on the need for a bailout.
*** We're all Georgians now: Reaching 60 Senate seats was always going to be a daunting challenge for Democrats this cycle, even in this kind of anti-Republican climate. And today's run-off in Georgia between incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) and challenger Jim Martin (D) is the most difficult of the remaining hurdles for the Democrats to achieve that feat. (Regarding the other remaining hurdle, Al Franken trails Norm Coleman in Minnesota by 340 votes in the Star Tribune's count and 73, according to the Franken camp's count.) There are at least three things working against Martin. One, Democrats in recent years have had a rough time winning statewide office in this red state. Two, Chambliss just narrowly missed crossing the 50% threshold needed to avoid the run-off; by comparison, Martin won 46.8%. Three, that 46.8% came when Obama's name was on the ballot, and today it won't be. Indeed, African-American voters in the early-voting period for the run-off didn’t come out in the numbers they did for the general election. In short, Obama's decision not to campaign for Martin probably tells you all you need to know about this race. Of course, stranger things have happened in politics, but Chambliss is the clear favorite. Polls in Georgia open at 7:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm ET.
*** Recruiting matters: By the way, outgoing Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer has put together quite the two-year record, no doubt. And he really hasn't earned much criticism considering he's picked up more than a dozen Senate seats in two cycles (he’s currently at +13). But for these final two races that are standing between Democrats and 60 Senate seats, it's not exactly two stellar Democratic recruits. In fact, had Democrats found better candidates in both races, Democrats might not be in this current situation. Minnesota would already be in the bag, and Georgia might have been won on Election Day.
*** 'Left' out: Some liberals might have cringed yesterday seeing Obama unveil a national security team consisting of Hillary Clinton (who voted in favor of the Iraq war), Bob Gates (Bush's current Defense secretary), and Jim Jones (who is close to McCain). The truth is, however, that the president-elect is simply following through on a promise about changing the tone and creating a bipartisan atmosphere in Washington. Yes, Obama opposed the war in Iraq and probably owed his victory in the Iowa caucuses to that fact. But outside Iraq, he never pandered to the left as much as they thought he did; the left simply heard what they wanted in Obama. Some examples that come to mind: his reversal on FISA, his support for merit pay for teachers, and his championing of faith-based services. One other thought: With Gates staying at the Pentagon for about a year most likely, Obama has to pick a Democrat to succeed him, right? That would seemingly rule out someone like Chuck Hagel for the post. By the way, what is Hagel in line for, if anything? He does seem to be the one Obama Republican without a gig.
*** What’s left: Speaking of Hagel and other gigs, Obama has now rolled out about half his cabinet. Now left are the lower-profile posts, including Education, Labor, Energy, Interior, Agriculture, Transportation, and Veterans Affairs. (We've reported that Obama has filled Commerce and HHS, but he has yet to officially announce Richardson and Daschle.) Does Obama hope to get the same amount of attention for the final round of cabinet appointments as he's gotten so far with his economic and national security rollouts? We're guessing not, but the posts that are left are some of the issue meat-and-potato deals where the future of energy policy, health-care policy, and education policy could be formed.
*** It’s recess(ion) time: Yesterday, it was announced that the U.S. economy officially sank into recession last December -- which according to the New York Times, means that “the downturn is already longer than the average for all recessions since World War II.” We have two questions. One, how stupid do these think tanks and government entities think the public is now that they tell us now we've been in a recession for the last year? Two, do the Obama folks wish they didn't get so much credit last week for the rise in the stock market? Credit last week, blame this week? Both were overstated. The Obama folks ought to stop trying to take credit for stock market rises at this point in the transition.
*** Looking at 2010: With the governors meeting with Obama, today is probably as good of a day as any to break down the 2009-2010 gubernatorial races. A couple of weeks ago, we noted that if Democrats don't hit 60 Senate seats now -- by winning in Georgia and Minnesota -- they're likely to achieve that feat after 2010, given the Dems' favorable map for the upcoming Senate cycle. But while Democrats might have the upper hand with the Senate races two years from now, Republicans appear to have the early advantage when it comes to the upcoming gubernatorial contests. Currently, Democrats hold a 29-to-21 edge in governorships. But those numbers will likely change after the 2009 races in New Jersey (where Corzine could be vulnerable) and Virginia (where Republican Bob McDonnell looks tough to beat), and after that the 2010 cycle, when Democrats have to defend 20 seats (at least 10 of which will be open seats) and Republicans have 16 to defend (with at least seven open seats). In fact, with legitimate pick-up opportunities in AZ, KS, MI, OK, TN, VA, and WY, Republicans could win back a majority of governorships by 2010. (The Dems' best pick-up opportunities right now seem to be in CA, HI, NV, and RI.) Why do these governor races matter? We have three words for you: 2011 congressional redistricting.
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 37 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 49 days
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