Sorting through the Minn. Sen. weeds

Posted: Tuesday, December 02, 2008 5:25 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC's Carrie Dann
So what, exactly, is the score between Al Franken and Norm Coleman?

Perusers of local newspapers read this morning that Coleman led Franken by 340 votes, according to a Minneapolis Star Tribune tally late Monday night. Franken campaign attorney Marc Elias announced with flourish in a Washington briefing today that Franken trails by only 50, according to their internal campaign count.

The Coleman team shot back that their own numbers show the incumbent Republican senator's lead is "far north" of that. And the Minnesota Secretary of State's Web site -- which stands at 91% complete, but calculates the raw vote unevenly as individual precinct results are tabulated -- shows Franken winning by some 4,000 votes.

The numbers can be dizzying, with accusations of perhaps frivolous challenges and potentially inflated numbers flying on both sides.

Elias argued today that the campaign's internal counting method is the "most accurate way," because it counts each "challenged" ballot -- or those called into question by each candidate's representatives on site -- as a vote for whichever candidate that the ballot appears to indicate in the view of nonpartisan elections monitors. But it's worth pointing out that election officials at each of the 110 county recount locations do not give their opinion on every challenged ballot, one reason that the Coleman team says its own count is different.

Both campaigns say they believe their candidate will have earned the majority of Minnesotans' votes when the recount ends on Friday. But the key issue for Team Franken will be an as-yet undetermined number of absentee ballots originally rejected by mistake due to clerical errors.

Elias estimates that up to 1,000 absentee ballots were improperly rejected, meaning that they were not thrown out for legal reasons like an invalid signature or ID. County officials were directed by the Secretary of State's office today to review all rejected absentee ballots -- a move that represents a victory for the Franken campaign, but still leaves the ultimate count in limbo, as the state canvassing board has said it does not have the jurisdiction to order those votes counted.

Confused? The issue seems likely to end up in court with the razor-tight margin between the two candidates meaning that each ballot's disputed results will be bitterly disputed.

Coleman supporters allege that Franken's campaign will ultimately try to leverage the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate to rule him the winner in the contest, using the Constitutional provision that "each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members."

Elias denied that his appearance in Washington, D.C., today previewed a Franken "War Room" on Capitol Hill.

"If they're setting up a war room," he said, "I won't be in it."

EMAIL THIS

Comments

What, are kids from the Helen Keller Rehab School doing this recount? Step it up a notch Minnesota!

Ty Grones, Mempnis (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 5:33 PM)

Damn, lost count. Now we have to start over. 1, 2, 3 . .

Tom Mixx, SD CA (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 5:35 PM)

This is so ridiculous -- the election commission (or their reps present at the recount) should have the final say. Either campaign's "internal numbers" are highly suspect. Why is this so difficult? Are we hiring the terminally stupid to monitor the recounts, or is this just a case of each side putting out their spin on what's really going on?

Indie Woman in Denver (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 5:38 PM)

Confused? No but Sean Hannity is. A typical, stupid, idiot.
===============================
JimboBillyBob

If you’re read the post on Pakistan, it’s an example of Middle East Chaos. As you may or may not know, Sadeem Hussein had no affiliations with Bin Laden. In fact, Bin Laden didn't even like or consider Sadeem Hussein Muslim because Sadeem Hussein tortured and killed his own people.
With the Bushes’ ignoring Afghanistan and so eager to get oil, occupy, and build industrial complexes, Bush has emboldened jiharists around the ME and world.
Again how much money does the West have?

============================================
Tim, Bowie, MD

I was born in Wheeling and I cringe when I see the comments of people like JimboBillyBob. Beverly of Chicago is OK, so don't put her down. At least she knows what has happened over the past 8 years. Hard to avoid the lunacy of Dubya and his sidekick Dick, partcularly when we will spend several trillion to resurrect our economy from the damage they have done. Not to forget the 4,500 plus U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq and the tens of thousands who will be crippled for the rest of their lives.
============================================

Tim, Bowie, MD

JimboBillyBob probably is a cave.
====================================

Beverly in Chicago (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 5:59 PM)

What a mess. I like Al Franken, but I think had the Dem Party in MN run a stronger candidate we wouldn't be here right now, we'd be at 59 instead!

KP, California (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:00 PM)

He's good enough, he smart enough, and doggone it, people like him.

Ken, Boulder, CO (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:10 PM)

In my opinion, both candidates need to step out of the way, and let the people doing the recount do their job. With all of this interference, it is costing the taxpayers more money to keep this political process going. Franken, Coleman, and all of their constituents, need to get out of the way, and let the results fall where they may.

Jeremy Harris, Memphis, TN (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:15 PM)

The good people of Minnesota have made a disastrous mistake by voting for Norm Coleman. He was connected "at the hip" to G.W. Bush. Al Franken probably is not the best Democrat in the state to be voted into the Senate,however, he is intelligent, willing to work for all citizens in the state, and certainly would not be a "rubber stamp" for anyone. Norm Coleman will be lost without having Cheney or Bush telling him what to say or how to vote. He will probably have to listen to Limbaugh daily for directions. Good luck there Minnesota.

Debbi2 (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:21 PM)

Patriotism must previal here. We need both parties to support the recount 100%, insist that only legitimately cast votes be counted, and that each and every such legitimately cast vote be counted. In that regard, how is an "improperly rejected" absentee ballot any different than an "improperly read" optically scanned ballot?

John Doe (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:50 PM)

You can take the "ballot challenge" on the Minneapolis Star Tribune website. Many of the challenges are a complete joke. On one challenge the Coleman representative admitted the basis of the challenger was "frivilous", in other words they didn't even pretend to have a valid challenge.

As of 2:48 CST Franken was behind by 305. Coleman had 3,078 challenges, and Franken 2,887. You can just deduct the 191 from the 305 and assume the difference is 114. Some of the ballots both Coleman and franken have challenged, and while most challenges are one candidate challenging a ballot in favor of his opponent, many challenges are the result of the local election board finding a ballot isn't valid (over vote, under vote, the voter made an "identifying mark" on the ballot)and the candidate who believes the ballot is in their favor has challenged the failure to count the vote for them.

Based upon the 599 ballots I reviewed in the challenge, and the results by counties (also listed on the stars website) I think Franken's representative is closer to the truth than Coleman. The first couple of days the campaigns weren't issuing an extrordinate number of baseless challenges. By then end of the 3rd day Franken had narrowed the gap to under a hundred, after that Coleman escalated his challenges and Franken followed suit.

In Ramsey county Coleman has challenged 211 ballots, but Franken has only lost 23 votes in that recount. A challenged ballot doesn't count in the candidates total. If all of Coleman's challenged ballots were challenging ballots in favor of Franken (which presumably the majority were) he would have gained 188 votes in that counties recount. If you go through each counties vote totals, it's hard to determine whose ahead, and there are still 3 counties to count, plus there's the issue of the valid absentee ballots that were improperly rejected (one county acknowledge an employee made a mistake and rejected a couple dozen valid ballots)

This race really is up in the air, but Coleman is probably winning the preception game. In the end hopefully it won't matter.

Count the votes (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:52 PM)

"The numbers can be dizzying, with accusations of perhaps frivolous challenges and potentially inflated numbers flying on both sides."

Excellent reporting. Keep up the good work, if you're not too dizzy from all those numbers.

manraygun, la,ca (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:53 PM)

What, are kids from the Helen Keller Rehab School doing this recount? Step it up a notch Minnesota!
Ty Grones, Mempnis

That's rude and uncalled for. Go to the Minnesota Secretary of State or the Star Tribune pape, and you'll see that 3 counties haven't even started the recount. Minnesota is doing a complete hand recount, and doing it all publically. I doubt Tenn could do better.

Recount (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:54 PM)

Look at original vote and then the number of votes that have been "found" for Franken. Compare this to the additional number of votes that then went to Obama and you've got....something that smells. Will the Democrats abandon all there ethics for one more Senate vote? Stay tune for the inciting confusion...er rather the exciting conclusion of "As Minnesota Turns"

andy safarik Hyannis NE (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 6:58 PM)

Franken?The democrats will let anyone run for office.What a joke!

Free American Tehachapi Ca. (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 8:08 PM)

ALL states should have runoff rules for whenever candidates get less than 50% of the vote because of 3rd party candidates... period. This is the ONLY way to ensure the true will of the people is followed.

If Minn had this, this would be no problem. Clearly, more people in Minn wanted a conservative, given the conservative Ind that got so many votes. Franken should drop out just based on that.. if he was honest... LOL.

Brian, Cincinnati, OH (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 9:08 PM)

Just so that all the legitimate ballots are counted and the man with the most vote wins.

Seattle Sue (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 11:07 PM)

In my opinion Franken should be disqualified just so the liberals can be filibustered at every turn and we can maintain our Christian society untill Sara Palin wins in 2012.

Wilson (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 11:28 PM)

Has something been added to the water in MN,? Coleman never had the ability nor skill to replace Paul Wellstone which was loved by people all over the country. MN has been known for giving this country great people that fought for the little guy. No matter what happens most people will not believe Coleman won it fair and square. I am still hoping that Franken pulls it off and lets Coleman go back under his rock.

Lana Riley, Lansdowne Pa (Sent Tuesday, December 02, 2008 11:53 PM)

The GOP/RNC is still going use their policially corrupt tactics of "deny-lie," and "attack-distract." They love causing disruptions at all electoral levels, and will continue to do so. The counting process will continue, until the GOP/RNC get their way politically. That is fact!

Rock,Janesville,Wisconsin (Sent Wednesday, December 03, 2008 4:09 AM)

If any of you had actually participated as an observer in the recount, as I did for 3 days as a non-partisan observer, you wouldn't be bashing the process. It is a very thorough examination of ballots right there in public. Yes, there are too many silly challenges coming from both sides. And yes, the counts from newspapers and the SOS don't match but, that's the problem with trying to read too much into too little information. I'm impressed by the process and how well the workers are doing their jobs. Please don't bash the people doing their jobs unless you've been there and been a part of the process.

Minnesota Recount OBserver, Northwoods Minnesota (Sent Wednesday, December 03, 2008 10:11 AM)

MN is one of the best states when it comes to elections. I know. I live here but have also lived and voted in CO and AZ. MN is the best of those three and we have the highest voter turnout in the country. If you look at some of the challenged ballots, you can see why the recount can be difficult. People circling their choice instead of filling in the bubble. Marking their selections with an X. Partially marking one candidate when you can tell they realized it was the wrong choice & then filled in their candidate's bubble completly or even writing on the ballot "candidate so & so." The Sec of State's office has to sort through each ballot for accuracy. Don't knock us. We are doing it accurately and fairly.

Bailey Quarters, Mpls, MN (Sent Wednesday, December 03, 2008 10:36 AM)

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=1696095