First thoughts: A bad day for Big 3
Posted: Friday, December 05, 2008 9:12 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** A bad day for the Big 3: The heads of the nation’s three automotive companies return to Capitol Hill today to testify this morning on the House side. Could it possibly be as bad as it was yesterday before the Senate? Here’s a sample of the coverage: “[T]hey failed to close the deal for as much as $38 billion in federal loans” (Washington Post); "The chief executives of America’s foundering automobile manufacturers … found themselves confronting years of pent-up anger, the harsh politics of a recession and the realization that even their strongest supporters might not be able to muster the votes to save them” (the New York Times); and “[S]kepticism remained high… with lawmakers questioning Detroit's commitment to becoming more competitive and worrying that the taxpayers' money would quickly be frittered away” (LA Times). But the automakers aren’t the only ones receiving criticism. The AP notes that some Democrats, including Rep. Barney Frank, want Obama to be more assertive dealing with the economic crisis. And yesterday, per NBC’s Ken Strickland, Democratic congressional leaders asked the Bush White House to use the TARP now to help save the auto industry. "We again urge you to use funds available to you ... to provide emergency bridge loans to the auto industry." They added that government action is "essential to the Congress' ability to address this critical economic situation in a timely manner." Of course, we learned yesterday that Obama himself could influence TARP decisions now if he so chooses, at least according to Paulson aides.
*** More tough economic news: The Labor Department is reporting that an astonishing 533,000 jobs were lost last month, bringing the unemployment rate to 6.7%. Reuters says that is the highest unemployment reading since 1993.
*** The 750-Million-Dollar Man: Last night, the Obama folks reported raising more than $104 million from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24, which brings the total amount Obama raised during the primaries and general election to nearly $750 million. What's more, almost four million individuals contributed to the Obama campaign. And combined with what the DNC raised, it's now official: The Dems raised a $1 billion for the presidential election. Just think about the amount that Obama raised. It means that whoever ends up challenging him in 2012 -- Palin, Jindal, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Romney, or someone else -- will have to raise close to that figure to be competitive. It’s a daunting task for the Republican Party, especially in the McCain-Feingold era. In fact, the Republican that taps into the small donor enthusiasm of the conservative movement will be the candidate that survives -- not necessarily the one who has the deepest pockets, because we're guessing a self-funding candidate (like Romney?) has seen his net worth drop so much in the last few months that spending his own money will not be an option, period. By the way, Obama's transition team today will be sending out a debt retirement fundraising appeal on behalf of Clinton.
*** Pardon me? The speculation that California Rep. Xavier Becerra might be Obama’s US trade representative certainly appeals to Latino groups and organized labor (which likes Becerra’s stance on trade). But is it good for Eric Holder, considering that talk of Becerra is reminding folks about another infamous Clinton clemency deal -- the commutation of a Los Angeles cocaine dealer's prison sentence? And guess what? It turns out Holder played a role in this commutation, too. This accumulation of pardon chatter isn't helpful to Holder, let alone Becerra.
*** Obama’s grassroots army, part II: The Los Angeles Times has this interesting piece today: "Amid Obama's transition to power, a spirited and often secretive debate has broken out among top campaign staff members over how to refashion the broad network of motivated volunteers into a force that can help Obama govern. With 13 million e-mail addresses, hundreds of trained field organizers and tens of thousands of neighborhood coordinators and phone bank volunteers, the network has become one of the most valuable assets in politics… This weekend, hundreds of field staffers and some key volunteers are planning a marathon closed-door summit at a Chicago hotel to begin negotiating details of what the network might look like when Obama takes office in January. A group of field organizers from battleground states has been enlisted to draw up a plan." And next weekend, the Obama campaign (via another David Plouffe email) is pushing house parties where he hopes supporters will gather to brainstorm how to harness their enthusiasm for 2009 that has nothing to do with campaign politics.
*** The never-ending recount: The hand recount in Minnesota's Coleman-Franken race comes to an end today. But that just signals the beginning of the end of this recount drama: On Dec. 12, the state canvassing board meets to discuss the options of dealing with mistakenly rejected absentee ballots (The Franken folks see this as crucial to their hopes. The number of these absentee ballots -- 500 to 1,000 -- will be larger than the votes separating Coleman and Franken after the recount is completed.) And on Dec. 16, the canvassing board begins to rule on the challenged ballots, which will be posted online, and that process that will last through Dec. 19. One other date worth pointing out: Starting Monday through the week of the 16th, county officials will be reexamining, but not counting, the rejected absentee ballots (more than 9,000 in total) and re-separating them into "five piles" -- the first four piles are for ballots rejected for one of four legal reasons. Those NOT rejected for a legal reason go into the "fifth pile." Those are the 500-1,000 ballots that Franken is counting on. Confused enough?
*** The last race of 2008: Speaking of undecided races, the final competitive contest of 2008 takes place in Louisiana on Saturday, when district attorney Paul Carmouche (D) and doctor John Fleming (R) face off to replace retiring Rep. Jim McCrery (R). Democrats and Republicans say this general election, which got delayed due to Hurricane Gustav, is a jump ball. And perhaps the best way to view the contest is to see it as a cross between Tuesday’s Senate run-off in Georgia (it’s a GOP-leaning area, and Republicans probably benefit from being seen as a check and balance on an Obama Administration and a Democratic Congress) and the earlier Cazayoux-Jenkins special election in Louisiana (where the Democrat in the race is pretty conservative and is probably a better candidate than the Republican). David Wasserman, who monitors House races for the Cook Political Report, tells First Read that Fleming might have a slight advantage, only because the check-and-balances argument is particularly resonating after Obama’s win last month. By the way, embattled Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson (D) also is on the ballot Saturday, and he’s expected to win.
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 34 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 46 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
