First thoughts: No ordinary honeymoon
Posted: Thursday, December 11, 2008 9:17 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** No ordinary honeymoon: While the political world continues to focus on the Blagojevich scandal, which at this point has been only a headache for the incoming Obama administration (although he'll probably get a question -- or two or three -- about it at today's press conference), it’s important not to overlook this fact: Obama is enjoying a bigger honeymoon than his recent predecessors ever did. Just consider these numbers in the latest NBC/WSJ poll: 67% say they’re pleased with Obama’s early appointments, 75% believe that the level of his involvement in making policy has been exactly right, and his fav/unfav rating is 67%-16%. By comparison, a month after their initial presidential victories, Bush’s rating was 48%-35% and Clinton’s was 60%-19%. These scores -- combined with the fact that nearly 80% believe Obama will face bigger challenges than other recent presidents have, and 90% who say the nation’s economy has gotten worse over the past 12 months -- seem to have given Obama some leeway with the American public. “We’re seeing a president who has been given a longer leash by the American public,” says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R). “This is not a traditional start of a presidency where people give you just a couple of months.” For Obama that means, potentially, he has the opportunity to throw the long ball in his first year in office, as well as withstand an early setback or two. This combination of hope and despair is serving as potent political tonic. Then again, it will be interesting to see if the Blagojevich mess changes these numbers.
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Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his analysis of the latest NBC/WSJ poll.
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Divorcing Bush: While the public is giving Obama a nice honeymoon, it’s finalizing its divorce from President Bush. A whopping 79% in the poll say they’re not going to miss him when he leaves office. That’s compared with 55% who said the same of Clinton in December of 2000. Moreover, almost half (48%) think that Bush will go down as one of the worst presidents in our history. Just 18% said that of Clinton and only 6% said that of Bush 41. But Bush 43 isn’t the only Republican who has taken a hit in the new NBC/WSJ poll. Dick Cheney leaves office with sporting an all-time low in his personal rating. And the Republican Party’s fav/unfav is 27%-52%, which is its lowest rating ever in the poll (by comparison, the Democratic Party’s is nearly reversed, 49%-28%). And get this: The most popular Republican we tested is Condi Rice, whose fav/unfav 47%-18%. But among Republicans only, the most popular is Palin -- with a whopping 73%-13% rating. But Palin's overall score is a net negative, 35%-45%, which means she fares poorly among Democrats and independents.
*** The Clintons rise again: It’s also worth noting that the poll shows a renaissance of sorts for the Clintons. Hillary’s fav/unfav is 53%-26%, which is her highest score since January ’99, when she was seen as the victim after the Lewinsky scandal. And Bill’s rating is 49%-29%, with his “very negative” score being the lowest we've ever seen it since January' 93. And whom do the Clintons have to thank for this rise in popularity? Obama. His decision to pick her has Obama supporters feeling better about the Clintons than they did during the contentious primary period of 2008. In addition, Michelle Obama has a 54%-15% rating, and 69% see her as a positive role model for women. That’s a higher number than Hillary Clinton ever scored on this question, even in December 1992. Of course, unlike Hillary in '92, Michelle Obama has not been singled out by her husband as a potential policy adviser, and the decision to keep her out of the politics of the transition has probably helped her overall image.
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Video: GMAC, GM's financing company may not be able to participate in the finance recovery plan because of its inability to raise money to cover its outstanding debt, which could affect GM's auto bailout position. CNBC's Michelle Caruso-Cabrera reports.
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Corporate America takes a hit: The House yesterday passed a $14 billion auto bailout, but its prospects in the Senate don’t look too good right now. And this debate on whether to help rescue the US automotive industry comes as the NBC/WSJ shows a low confidence in corporate America. Just 21% have positive feelings about Chrysler; it’s 25% for GM; 33% for Ford; 29% for Bank of America; 16% for Citibank; 11% for Fannie Mae; and just 8% for AIG. The only US corporation that scored well in the poll was Microsoft, which has a 57% favorable rating. Yet while corporate America is taking a hit and almost everyone’s opinion about the economy is down, there's still some optimism and a sense that we’re all in this together: 64% say they would be wiling to take a 5% pay cut if it meant saving jobs at their place of work. Take that result -- and couple it with the expectation in our poll that the two parties are more likely to work together than have partisan fights -- and you get the sense that the public is rooting for success, even among those folks who did not support Obama in the presidential election.
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Video: The House passes a $14 billion auto bailout plan. NBC's Mike Viqueira reports to MSNBC's Rachel Maddow.
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Special election vs. appointment: Today is Day Three of the Blagojevich scandal. And we’re seeing a divide between some Democrats (like Dick Durbin) who want a special election ASAP, and other Dems (like Harry Reid) who want an appointment instead, because they fear that a special election might not be winnable in this current political environment. In short, this whole Blagojevich mess could possibly cost Democrats a Senate seat in this blue state, if we see a special election. Notice on TODAY, current Lt. Gov. Patrick Quinn hinted that it would be better for the state of Illinois if it had two US senators in Washington ASAP. He didn't say it directly, but hinted that he would rather have the appointment power and let the 2010 be the year the voters have their say rather than dealing with a special election sooner.
*** Mistake, baby, mistake? Here’s another interesting finding in the poll: Asked what’s the most important economic issue facing the country, 36% cited unemployment, 12% noted the budget deficit, 11% mentioned health care, 9% said the drop in the stock market, 8% cited housing prices and -- get this -- just 5% noted gas prices and energy costs. With gas prices below $2 a gallon, it’s not surprising that they now rank so low on list. But remember when McCain, during the summer as gas prices hovered around $4 per gallon, staked so much of his economic agenda on a gas-tax holiday and offshore drilling? “Drill, baby, drill” eventually became a GOP rallying cry, especially after McCain selected Alaska’s own Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The next time gas prices spike up again, candidates might want to remember this piece of advice: What goes up often will come down.
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