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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



'We expect Duncan to be the winner'

Posted: Wednesday, January 28, 2009 6:12 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC’s Claire Luke
In a bold show of confidence, the Mike Duncan reelection team all but declared victory in the race for Republican National Committee chairman.

“We expect it to be a very interesting day on Friday, but no matter how many ballots it goes to, we expect Duncan to be the winner,” Republican National Committee Co-Chair Jo Ann Davidson told reporters on a conference call this afternoon.

That attitude is not optimistic but realistic, Davidson said. Referencing the RNC chair elections of 1993 and 1997, in which a relatively high number of candidates running resulted in more ballot rounds, Davidson said she believes a similar situation will occur on Friday. (There are five candidates running for chairman this year in addition to Duncan.)

A First Read survey of the RNC’s 168 voting members does show Duncan ahead of the other five candidates, with 44 members backing him; yet, this number still falls short of the 85 votes needed to secure a victory.

“The fact that Duncan is among the leaders right now is testimony to how well he’s done,” said supporter Ron Kaufman, a Massachusetts National Committeeman.

Although various members have expressed a desire for change in the RNC to help attract a wider reach of voters and advance the party forward, Kaufman said that confidence is even more important than change. Being able to run the party wisely, to fundraise and spend wisely, and to prepare the party for 2010 and 2012 are the most important elements, according to Kaufman, of the ideal chairman.

In other words, being able to run the party wisely is more important than change for the sake of change.

Davidson and Kaufman discussed the issue of race in addressing a question regarding the importance of “nuts-and-bolts” issues vs. those including the candidates’ race or home state.

While Davidson said the emphasis on the issues vs. race and origin varies between the 168 members, but, speaking from Duncan’s team, the perspective is to find someone “who can hit the ground running, who has a record of accomplishment, who knows what’s expected of the RNC, and who can operate effectively and get the message out.”

“There’s been a shift in thinking about what’s important,” Kaufman said. “I don’t care if he’s white, green, blue or purple, as long as he’ll be a good candidate in 2012.”

Another question opened a discussion on policy, from which Kaufman revealed a bit of the chairman’s view on President Obama’s stimulus plan.

“History says tax cuts work long-term in creating jobs,” he said. “We must do the right thing. The risk considered with the stimulus is that we need to stick to ideals -- low spending, low income taxes.”

When asked about the rumored power-sharing deals Duncan has conducted, Davidson recognized the rumors but said, “The campaign is not going to get involved in the rumors.”

On Monday, Davidson said, per Ben Smith: “Mike Duncan is running for Chairman and will be elected by the members and not through a deal. Whether that takes two ballots, three ballots, four ballots, or more, he will win on the last ballot.”

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Well, if the Republicans are 'guaranteeing' this election, they better check the ballot box and the by-laws.  Oh wait, it's an election against other Repubs?  Hmmm,...I guess the one with the sharpest elbows will prevail.
Who will lead the bigots?
Duncan will lead the bigots? He's the biggest bigot.
No, Sarah should lead the bigots. She's mavericky.
Forget that, Romney should lead the bigots, he'll legalize polygamy.
WHO CARES!!!  Why now do they have the answer to the economic crisis.  Why didn't the repubs care where the other stimulus money went to.

Go away!!!  You are not wanted
Why not just elect one of the two real party leaders?  The Republicans seem to be submissively following the cues of Rush Limpbaugh, while touting the virtues of Sarah palin.
They have really turned themselves into the party of Yesmanship, with no thoughts of their own, they line up behind one another like elephants going around and around in a circle with their tails entwined in the front mans trunk.
“nuts-and-bolts” issues

When discussing Republicans I believe it is Nuts and Dolts
Rush should lead the bigots, oh that's right, he already does!
From what I know about the candidates of the RNC, the party has lost the 2010 elections already. None of the candidates have voiced any political savvy that appeals to the middle of the political electorate and what they have said is a rehash of obsolete and discredited political concepts.  

Ops, I need to make an amendment here; The Republican Party may continue its hold on the deep south. Sad commentary that.

This implosion will be fun to watch.

 Someone who can get the message out?
   WHAT message??
“I don’t care if he’s white, green, blue or purple, as long as he’ll be a good candidate in 2012.”
Translation: But not black.  Do not do like the democrats!...that party is for "them". Since America elected one of "them", the Democrat Party is for "them"...the position of your Republican Party!
The Really Not Competent (RNC) are picking another "Gross Odd Person" to lead them into political "stupidity." It is "Dorky" Duncan to their pathetic political rescue. I am sure "Dorky" Duncan will get the "evil" blessing of "Lazy" Limbaugh the "Moron with a Mic." He will continue to foster the GOP ideals of economic class warfare, race hatred, political "spewing," social division, ethical evil, and continued GOP cover-ups. We must beware of "Puppet Palin" the "puke" of political policy who sponsors racism.
The voting for RNC is a sham - Rush Limbaugh is the NEW LEADER of the RNC (especially in the south). I live in Tennessee and the Racism of the RNC is alive and well in AMERICA
Why doesn't the GOP just appoint Rush and get it over with? Clearly, he's the one calling all the shots these days, to the point of U.S. Congressmen being publicly forced to apologize for criticizing him.
Well, the republicans are up to no good if Mike Duncan is elected as chairman. They can't do any better than that! It will be more of the same ole, same ole. It would appear that they would want something different from their party. They can't find at least one decent person in their party that cares about the American people and not themselves.
Who cares about the whites only party
Did you see ALL the candidates for "top dog" of the GOP? Here's a hint..........old......white......MEN.
Laughed so hard when they went down the list. This coming from the Party that is in exile and SAYS it wants to change it's image.....yeah, right....as long as you're "one of the boys", you're safe in the Republican Party. If you don't fit in the mold, I guess you're a Democrat! Idiots. All of them.
Who cares about the RNC, they aren't willing to play ball, so they will continue to be the party of oposition and discord.
There’s been a shift in thinking about what’s important,” Kaufman said. “I don’t care if he’s white, green, blue or purple, as long as he’ll be a good candidate in 2012.”


As long as "He" Is a "He"  lol there is thier problem...
Is the GOP nuts? Jeez! Another old white dude again? My Lord. I guess these guys just don't get it. How can you attract younger and minority voters when you are the party of Rich White Bread?
IF THE REPUBLICANS LISTEN TO RUSH LIMBAUGH WHO PREACHES HATE WHO IS SO RACIS, THEY WILL NEVER BE ON TOP. RUSH LIMBAUGH IS WHITE TRASH.THIS IS 2009 GET OVER IT.
It's sad that the party of George Romney, Nelson Rockfeller, Jake Javitz, Everett Dirksen and Gerald Ford could come to such a place. The "common sense conservatism" that McConnell talks about has been re-defined by a party that has become clearly indifferent to anyone who doesn't look like and agree with them. My grandfather was Chair of the GOP in PA in the 60's. He would spin in his grave if he could see who pass for "leaders" in the current GOP.
A BLACK MAN! that's who's running the bigots! LOL...guess all you liberals were slightly off.

Next thing we'll hear is how they ONLY voted him in b/c he's black from you people....just like what we said a few months ago about, about Obama!
Well,
Now that the RNC has elected a black man to lead it, all you people can start saying how they are just following the Democrats.
Anyone who truly believes that the Republican party only cares about rich white men are plan fools.  They may see things differently then you all do but that doesn't make you right or them wrong.  
Wait and see, the "stimulus bill" being pushed through the house and senate won't do for you all what you think it will.  But there will be a lot of special interests that will be happy.
Try to take an objective look at things once in a while.  The republicans care as much for this country and it's people as the democrats.  While it's easy to jump on one party or the other, we would all be better served to look at both parties and ask if they are truly serving the needs of most people.
As a republican, who does not believe in government handouts and would rather work then be bailed out with socialism, I would hope that we would return to the freedom and liberty that our platform truly suggests, if people would take the time to read what the platform actually says.  I hope that the person selected will help steer our party back in that direction.
I find it ironic the party of slave owners and Jim Crow laws has the gall to call the party of Lincoln bigots.  Lincoln was Republican by the way.  It was the Republicans that helped LBJ pass the Civil Rights Act.  Next time research history.
Personally I do not listen to Rush, I can be a Republican with my own mind.  I like to think of myself as a Republicrate due to the fact I like some of the ideas from both sides.  Washington has become nothing more than a big PISSING PARTY.  Hmmmm maybe a King or Queen would work out, then we would really know whom to blame for all our woes.
i find it interesting that people that believe that they are so smart about the republican party is hard to find in this forum. open your mind and maybe you will see , we are americans first not republican or democrat, but if you would like to know about the republican party really look at history if it wasnt for the republican party the election that took place this year would have not taken place. it took republicans to end slavery, it republicans to pass the civil rights bill, so educate before you hate.
Chuck,

You are wrong. we in the conservative movement know that, it would be Michael Steele. Main stream media is trying so hard to influence the republican party and every time, it looses. We know, what happened with McCain, we will never do that mistake.
Can't wait to read what all you commentors have to say now that Steele has won the seat.
Seems most of our posters and whoever made this prediction were wrong.  There may be hope yet for the Republicans.
I am in agreement on one thing, Rush is an idiot.    
I have never read such crap.  Raising taxes and nationalizing the banking system and healthcare seems to be the democrat response.  We shall see, if I were a betting man, I would say the new president and his pips will be in the high 30's to low 40's in opinion polling by the end of the year.  When you promise everything, you must deliver something.
This is no time to gloat over recent elections and denigrate Rep's. The nation is in trouble. As long as we think to cast away a sector of our country...we'll end up in the heap of history no one wants to dive into.
Nice one Heidi, you described the efforts of the Democratic party from 2000-2008, but dis the Republicans for acting the same way. And Cathy complains the Republicans only nominate men, but when they had a female candidate, everyone trashed her.
My,my sounds like war.I guess the side with the most firearms would win?

I wonder if the circle of malcontents will ever be broken...As a moderate Republican, I deplore the shamefull, dispicable and hatefilled attitudes & actions of the Rush Limbaughs and Hannitys of the world...

It is amazing how they can throw stones and judge others when their closets are so full of baggage.( It's ironic that Rush is wishing that our President should fail...I wonder if he realizes that if President Obama fails, we all fail...and so does his $35 mil a year for spewing hate.(He appears to be an angry, bitter, frustrated, unhappy and envious man)

He should seek God and his redeeming power while He may yet be found.

I do not believe Rush represents the best of the Republican Party as I have known it be...(of the people, for the people, by the people)..May God continue to Bless America, the Land that I love.
Hey,treehuggers.The RNC elected a Black Man! What will you do now? I know.........have more kool aid, kill a few more unborn babies and you'll feel right as rain in the morning. God bless ya.

I wonder if the circle of malcontents will ever be broken...As a moderate Republican, I deplore the shamefull, dispicable and hatefilled attitudes & actions of the Rush Limbaughs and Hannitys of the world...

It is amazing how they can throw stones and judge others when their closets are so full of baggage.( It's ironic that Rush is wishing that our President should fail...I wonder if he realizes that if President Obama fails, we all fail...and so does his $35 mil a year for spewing hate.(He appears to be an angry, bitter, frustrated, unhappy and envious man)

He should seek God and his redeeming power while He may yet be found.

I do not believe Rush represents the best of the Republican Party as I have known it be...(of the people, for the people, by the people)..May God continue to Bless America, the Land that I love.
Well, well, well an African American elected.  Guess you got spanked Mr. Bill Smith!  You are the true Bigot!


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