First thoughts: Heading to Mexico
Posted: Thursday, April 16, 2009 9:21 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
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Heading to Mexico: This morning, President Obama embarks on his third foreign trip as president (the other two were to Canada and Europe). He arrives in Mexico City at 2:10 pm ET; holds a bilateral meeting with President Calderon at 3:10 pm; and participates in a press conference with Calderon at 4:45 pm. Interestingly, this is Obama's first-ever visit to any part of Latin America, including Mexico. Not just as president, but EVER. Some Latin American observers see this as a sign that the president hadn't viewed the region as a priority as a senator or as a rising politician, and it has concerned some of these observers. Bottom line: Look for the president to go a bit over the top, if necessary, to convince Latin American leaders that he -- to borrow the words from the first President Bush -- will send the message of "I care." Moreover, unlike other international visits, the Mexico trip has very little to do with pure foreign policy, and is instead dominated mostly by domestic politics. From guns and immigration to the drug war and trade, the top issues on the agenda today all could have domestic political consequences for the president. In particular, people will pay attention to the back-and-forth between the two presidents on assault weapons.
Video: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell talks to Mexican President Felipe Calderon ahead of President Obama’s trip to the country where they’ll discuss the wave of recent drug-related violence.
*** Three other storylines: As for the rest of the trip after today -- the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad -- look for three storylines to emerge. One is Cuba. (Just how hard will the other Latin American leaders criticize the president for what they believe is not much change in our Cuba stance?). Two is anti-Americanism. (Many of the emerging political leaders of the region have gotten to power by bashing the U.S. Will the president confront this issue like he did in Europe? Anti-Americanism has always been stronger in Latin America than anywhere else.) And three, there's Hugo Chavez. (He's been bombastic at previous international gatherings, and has even spent the last week thumbing his nose at the U.S. in visits to Cuba, Iran, and China and taking little shots at the U.S. along the way. Will he do this in the presence of Obama? If he does, will other leaders cheer him on or being embarrassed? Will the president confront him or go out of his way to ignore him? Confronting him could be one of those tricky moments for the president; he could stare him down and get domestic political love for doing it. But confronting Chavez could elevate the Venezuelan in the eyes of the world.)
*** Rick Perry said what? There’s lots of coverage of yesterday’s tea parties below. But perhaps the biggest news came from the one in Austin, TX, where Texas Gov. Rick Perry suggested that Texas could secede from the union. The AP: “Later, answering news reporters' questions, Perry suggested Texans might at some point get so fed up they would want to secede from the union, though he said he sees no reason why Texas should do that. ‘There's a lot of different scenarios,’ Perry said. ‘We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that. But Texas is a very unique place, and we're a pretty independent lot to boot.’” Perry is definitely ambitious -- is he prepping himself for more than a GOP primary against Kay Bailey Hutchison? -- but this secession talk is pretty amazing coming from the governor of the country's second-largest state.
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Palin returns to the Lower 48: As we've said before, the first 100 days of the Obama presidency haven't been kind to Sarah Palin. There was the confusion over whether she'd keynote the big NRSC/NRCC fundraiser in June, and organizers eventually replaced her with Newt Gingrich. Her daughter Bristol broke up with Levi Johnston, and her aides blasted Johnston after he appeared on Tyra Banks' show. Also, we found out her nominee for state attorney general called gays “degenerates” and defended a statue of a KKK figure. And earlier this month, Palin’s sister-in-law was arrested for allegedly burglarizing a house. Tonight, however, she has the opportunity to put all that behind her when she addresses a Vanderburgh County Right to Life fundraiser in Indiana at 8:00 pm ET; RNC chairman Michael Steele also is speaking at the event. Of course, critics are wondering why Palin wouldn't commit to the NRSC/NRCC dinner because the Alaska legislature was in session, but is attending tonight's fundraiser when -- you guessed it -- it's in session.
*** Our day at Shad Planking: Hundreds of people attended yesterday’s political festival in rural Wakefield, VA, including two of your First Read authors. The speeches by the three gubernatorial candidates in attendance (Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrats Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran) were lighthearted. The beer was flowing. The people-watching was entertaining. And the shad fish, for which the festival is named? Um, not so good. In his speech, McDonnell lampooned the amount of money that McAuliffe has so far spent in the race. "He has created 100 jobs for the people of Virginia," the Republican joked. "I want to thank him for doing his part to stimulate the economy." In his speech, McAuliffe poked fun at McDonnell’s longer-than-expected remarks. "I don't need any windmills off the coast of Virginia Beach. We have Bob McDonnell." And Moran joked that he saw McAuliffe "setting up the martini bar on his way in." Two quick notes: One, most of the jokes were aimed at McAuliffe, which his campaign saw as a good thing (because they think it elevated him as Dem front-runner). And two, Bob McDonnell was pretty impressive. In him, Republicans have their best statewide candidate in years.
*** Tedisco in trouble? As of yesterday afternoon in the ongoing count in NY-20, Democrat Scott Murphy holds an 86-vote lead over Republican Jim Tedisco (79,105 vs. 79,019). The bad news for Tedisco? Most of the absentee ballots from Saratoga County -- which Tedisco won and which represents about a third of the congressional district -- have now been counted. Writes Politico: “Tedisco’s campaign was hoping to take over the lead once the absentee ballots from Saratoga County were included in the count… While Saratoga County has completed its count of the absentees, there are still about 700 challenged ballots in the county that may end up being included in the count.”
*** Lending is down? Finally, this Washington Post story caught our eye: “Lending by the nation's largest banks fell 6 percent in February from the previous month, continuing a downward trend that began in October with the financial crisis, according to data published yesterday by the Treasury Department.” So bank lending is down, despite how cheap money is right now for the banks? How can the administration force these banks to increase lending and then also do it at reasonable interest rates?
Countdown to Obama’s 100th day: 13 days
Countdown to NJ GOP primary: 47 days
Countdown to VA Dem primary: 54 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 201 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 565 days
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