Beware: The experts' list isn't Obama's
Posted: Monday, May 04, 2009 3:48 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
Courts, Barack Obama
From NBC's Harry Enten
Within hours of the news that Justice David Souter was retiring, numerous media outlets listed the favorites to replace Souter. Among them: Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Diane Wood, Leah Ward Sears, Kim McLane Wardlaw, Jennifer Granholm.
But if some recent history is a guide, there's a chance that President Obama's ultimate pick might not be any of these favorites.
A cursory search of some major newspaper databases -- Los Angeles Times, New York Daily News, New York Times, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and Washington Times -- reveals that the last time a Democratic president (Bill Clinton) was filling his first Supreme Court vacancy, his ultimate choice (Ruth Bader Ginsburg) was not initially near the top of most experts' top lists.
A Washington Post article written on March 20, 1993, one day after Justice Byron White's retirement was announced, noted that Ginsburg's age (60 at the time) could "exclude" her from being selected. A USA Today article published on March 22nd listed Ginsburg as the last possible nominee in the "also mentioned" category. According to the database, none of the other newspapers in the month of March mentioned Ginsburg's name as a choice.
It was not until the month of May when the Washington Post, New York Times, and Los Angeles Times mentioned Ginsburg as a top choice. Yet even as late as May 6th, a USA Today article said that Ginsburg was "under less serious consideration" than other major nominees.
Clinton appointed Ginsburg a little more than a month later, on June 14th.
On the other hand, both John Roberts and Samuel Alito were high on the experts' lists when George W. Bush was considering his Supreme Court vacancies.
