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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



First thoughts: Obama in Germany

Posted: Friday, June 05, 2009 9:20 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama in Germany: At a press conference in Dresden earlier this morning with German Chancellor Merkel, President Obama reiterated his call from yesterday for Middle East peace, saying the “moment is now” for action. “Ultimately, the United States can't force peace upon the parties,” he said. “But what we've tried to do is to clear away some of the misunderstandings so that we can at least begin to have frank dialogue.” Obama also addressed Gitmo and the possibility of putting its prisoners in countries like Germany. Calling it “a very difficult issue,” he said, “Chancellor Merkel has been very open to discussions with us. We have not asked her for hard commitments, and she has not given us any hard commitments beyond having a serious discussion about are there ways that we can solve this problem. And I don't anticipate that it's going to be resolved anytime in the next two or three months. I think it's going to be a longer process of evaluation.” The two leaders also discussed trade, climate change and Iran. Later today, at 9:15 am ET, Obama tours the Buchenwald concentration camp. And then, at 11:50 am, he will meet with injured U.S. troops at the Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. Tomorrow, Obama hits the last leg of his overseas trip: attending the 65th anniversary of the D-Day invasion in Normandy.

*** Now what? As we reported last night on "Nightly News," Secretary of State Clinton made perhaps the most important comment after Obama’s big speech yesterday, when she said, "Now we have to get to work to translate that into concrete action."

At the press conference, Obama was asked about that "concrete action," and one piece of news he made was that he was sending Middle East special envoy George Mitchell to the region next week. The most important part of Mitchell's trip may be his meeting schedule. For instance, will he meet with anyone from Hamas on this trip? (We've been told no, but at some point, he has to, right?) The president, in his speech yesterday, seemed to lay out a scenario in which Hamas could play a role if it put down its arms and acknowledge Israel's right to exist. It's not something new for a U.S. president to say that; Bush made similar remarks about Hamas after it won elections in the Palestinian territories. The Hamas issue with the Palestinians is going to be something to watch, as it's not clear the Palestinian Authority’s Mahmoud Abbas speaks for all Palestinians.

*** A deadline? Also at the news conference, Merkel may have accidentally made some news when she hinted that she and the president discussed a specific "timeframe" for the Mideast peace process. Here’s Merkel (transcribed from German): "We also talked about a possible time frame for possible progress to be made." She ducked a specific question about the remark, and the White House won't comment on a timeframe other than to say they are taking on this issue now, not later in their presidency. As much as the U.S. wants to duck any public call for a specific timeframe for Middle East peace talks, negotiations usually don't begin to pick up momentum without a deadline hanging over the head of the involved parties. After all, when do any of us get anything done without a deadline? Also, keep in mind that Merkel may want to be seen as pushing the process along for her own domestic political needs, so we wouldn't be surprised if she inserted the time frame stuff in her remarks at the surprise of the White House.

Video: President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel hold a joint press conference one day after his trip to the Middle East.

*** Trip down memory lane: The rest of Obama’s day -- visiting Landstuhl and Buchenwald -- brings up two memories from the 2008 presidential campaign. First, Team McCain criticized Obama when he didn’t visit the Landstuhl hospital while on his big overseas trip to Europe. (The Obama campaign countered that he visited the U.S. troops while in Iraq and Kuwait.) Second, speaking in New Mexico on Memorial Day last year, Obama said that his great-uncle helped liberate Auschwitz, which would have been impossible -- unless his great-uncle served in the Red Army, since the Soviets were the ones who liberated that camp. The Obama campaign later clarified that the great-uncle, Charlie Payne, helped liberate a camp at Buchenwald. By the way, Payne recently gave an interview to Der Spiegel, in which he said that Obama’s Buchenwald trip is for “political reasons”; that he’s proud of his great-nephew; and that he’d be going to back to Buchenwald with Obama if he could get a ride on Air Force One. As it turns out, per the White House, Payne won’t be at Buchenwald today, but he’ll be with Obama tomorrow in Normandy.  

*** A stimulus 'exit strategy'? By the way, in a conference call with White House reporters, two senior administration officials helped give a readout of today’s earlier Obama-Merkel bilateral. In response to a question about what Merkel meant when she said the two debated a bit when it came to their philosophies for tackling the economic crisis, one senior administration official said that Merkel pushed the fact that her government (and the U.S.) needed an "exit strategy" from government stimulus. And, according to these officials, the president agreed. Anyway, it's a fascinating statement that we're guessing we'll see a lot made of it. One, it's an acknowledgment by the administration that they need to start tackling this deficit issue (public is starting to notice the money being spent). Two, it may inadvertently imply that the administration is now ruling out the idea of a "second stimulus." Now, obviously, some in the White House would say we're drawing WAY too many conclusions off of that statement, but the fact is a statement like "exit strategy" from stimulus makes it much harder to justify going back to the government stimulus well, right? OK, Boehner/Cantor, et al, DISCUSS!

*** Sanford’s and Palin’s stimulus setbacks: Speaking of the stimulus, two conservative GOP governors -- South Carolina’s Mark Sanford and Alaska’s Sarah Palin, both 2012 possibilities -- appear to have suffered setbacks in their crusades against the Obama stimulus. The South Carolina Supreme Court yesterday ordered Sanford to request $700 million in stimulus funds (intended primarily for the states struggling schools), and Sanford says he’ll comply with that request. Meanwhile, the Alaska Legislature seems poised to override Palin’s veto of $28.6 million in stimulus money.

*** It’s the economy…: The unemployment rate for the month of May jumped to 9.4%, up from 8.9% last month. It’s the highest unemployment rate since August 1983. The economy also shed another 345,000 jobs. But the jobs losses were less than the 525,000 expected. And it beats the average decline of more than 600,000 jobs a month for the past six months. The unemployment rate, however, was higher than the projected 9.2%.

*** Four days to go: And with Virginia's gubernatorial race just four days away -- and with two new polls showing Creigh Deeds in the lead, although within the margin of error -- be sure to tune into MSNBC this morning for interviews with the three Dem candidates: Deeds, Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran. 

Countdown to VA Dem primary: 4 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 151 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 515 days

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Comments

BTW: MSNBC reported a couple days ago that the unemployment rolls did not increase last week for the first time in many months. It might be another sign that the recession has bottomed out. If so, that's going to put wingnuts in a tizzy.
Houston


Let me guess - you go to faith healers and palm readers too. Any one with an ounce of brains doesn't look at one data point, but looks at trends. Here is something simple that even you can follow: If the trend of job losses declining continues over the next 6 months, that's good. If not, that's bad.
I agree with Feitsy in regards to FR moderation. There should be a full-time dedicated moderator for FR instead of one of the three doing it when they get around to it.
Nothing ever gets solved with Obama. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Troops will be in Iraq until 2012, Afghanistan until whenever. Economy? Getting dragged down by all the deficit spending which shows no end in sight. Unenployment keeps going up. States budgets, the Dutch Boy (Obama) put his finger in the dyke (note there are no references to Hillary here) for this year, but things look worse next year. Taxes are up, tax revenues are down. Nothing gets solved with Obama. But he sure gives a pretty speech now doesn't he?
TT Tomm (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 9:32 AM)
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So, Obama threatens to withdraw all the troops immediately, and everyone pithces a fit.  So, he decides to withdraw them slowly, and people still have a fit.

You just have to love it.  No matter what he says, no matter what he does, it seems destined that there will always be a talking point designed to show it was a bad idea.

Perhaps you would care to enlighten us on exactly how the wars would look, and exactly how the economy would look, under President McCain?  What would he be doing differently about the wars right now?  Would he have withdrawn the troops, or would both wars still be going on?  You think the economy would have magically recovered in 100 days under McCain?  Fine, tell us how.

People keep asking that question, yet no one seems to want to answer it.  
But don't let that fact get in your way:
Too late...it has already been established that jobs will continue to slide until it levels off. Your doom and gloom is best served some place else.

We lost less jobs than expected. We are slowly leveling off. Economics 101 teaches us that the recession that we suffered (due to Bush's BS), BTW started in 2007 and in 2008 when the s*** hit the fan...will continue on for a while...we lost a lot of jobs, we were in what would have been another great depression had the population been the same as 1932.

Actually the stimuls is working. We are already starting to see the decline in unemployment. We will not see a starting recovery until the end of 2009.

Do you have any idea how many jobs have been lost? How many businesses we have lost? How much revenue the stock market has lost? Housing, manufacturing and construction....
I've got a new 'theory':

Eric, Salinas is Domenico's dad AND Richard, Washington State is Mark's dad.  Rarely does anyone get a post through bashing Eric (yeah - I've got one for you - the faux apology yesterday burned my ass) and Richard is able to get the final word on more than a statistical norm in any given week.  Pandering to the Father base, boys?  Just curious.
Houston--
Do you think the US has done more harm than good in the world?

B, La. (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 10:20 AM)
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I know you didn't address that question to me, but I think it is a very good and very tough question. I think the answer depends on the region and the period in time.

In general, I would say we have done more good than harm. But to people that have suffered at the hands of a brutal regime we supported, propped up, or created, they don't care. When we support a brutal regime (such as the Shah of Iran), it creates extremism and makes it easy for that extremism to take hold.

It is important for us to understand the good and the bad that we've done in order to be able to put things in context and understand the position others are coming from. Many have said President Obama is weak for "apologizing for America." But our side, the side that says he looks strong, realizes that by admitting where you aren't perfect and need to improve, you open them up for negotiation.
You can see this President of the Unitied States deal Obama has isn't going to be big enough for him. I imagine Obama looks at himself as being more a Gandhi type of guy then just being President. That way he can share his wisdom around the world as he sees fit. One small issue to iron out though - Did Gandhi use a teleprompter?
J. Morrison, Miami FL (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 10:05 AM)
___________

The teleprompter jokes really make your party look assinine.  Do you realize that?  Would you rather hear a yokel spouting words like "nucular" and "strategery" all the time?  What faith can you put in a man who can't even pronounce words properly.  Who was writing his speeches, Ren and Stimpy?

But yes, please go ahead and continue to do nothing but make teleprompter jokes.  If that is the only thing you can continually find to say bad about the man, then he must be doing a lot of things right.

When Future [2012] Presidential & Political Ambitions, get in the Way the State's Needs, Especially when it Comes to Attempts to Block [Education Funds]in Two Distinct States that Lead the Nation,in Drop Out Rates and in Failing of National Standard Testing....

Plain & Sanford are  2 [Hollow,Floating,Bubbles]
-----------------------------

Sanford’s and Palin’s stimulus setbacks: Speaking of the stimulus, two conservative GOP governors -- South Carolina’s Mark Sanford and Alaska’s Sarah Palin, both 2012 possibilities -- appear to have suffered setbacks in their crusades against the Obama stimulus. The South Carolina Supreme Court yesterday ordered Sanford to request $700 million in stimulus funds (intended primarily for the states struggling schools), and Sanford says He’ll comply with that request.

Meanwhile, the Alaska Legislature seems poised to override Palin’s Veto of $28.6 million in stimulus money.
Many thoughtful posts today, always a pleasure to read.  

Just listened to 3 excellent, contemplative speeches from Buchenwald.  Elie Wiesel was the last and what powerful words his were.  He asked, will the world ever learn the lessons of the holocaust?  I wonder that as well when too often we choose bullets instead of diplomacy to prove how powerful we are and fear to keep the citizens from asking too many questions.  Very moving pictures and words.  Looking forward to Normandy tomorrow.  

Another fun week at FR.  MSNBC's traveling journalists have provided excellent reporting from abroad.  Enjoyed Brian William's White House special this week.  I'm still absorbing Pres Obama's excellent speech yesterday and with every replay of clips, I'm reminded that he touched many "third rails" in it.  Whether you agree with Pres Obama or not, every American should be proud that OUR president is unafraid to speak truth about difficult topics expressing views that may NOT be what some of his constituents or other countries want to hear.  

BJ, CA--did you forget that the last time then candidate Obama went to Germany, George Bush and Dick Cheney were in charge?  Ahh, blame Pres Obama even though the housing and banking collapse occurred while Bush was in charge.  Trying to rewrite history like Cheney and Liz, it won't work, there's too much tape out there to prove otherwise.  BTW Cheney admitted that they left GM for Pres Obama to solve (get the blame), what wimps.  Enjoy your weekend anyway.
Dresden, Germany, site of Kurt Vonnegut's masterpiece, Slaughterhouse Five - if ever there was a novel to end all wars, that was it. How will the critics attack this? I think by forcing the Germans to confront their massive contribution to the Jews fleeing Europe will shame Germany into actively working on the Israel - Palestine problem with us.

I understand the Obamas deserve a vacation, but I'm not looking forward to all the trite criticism the right will spew. After all, George W. settled for the farm for his pit stops. Kind of reminds me of the old song, "How ya gonna keep'em down on the farm, after they've seen Parrie?"
Feisty

How many times do I have to second that motion and while we're at it let's get rid of Joe Scarborough and that Confederate guy Pat Buchanan. I just don't understand Mika. She has gone from a cheesscake to an unliberated woman to a clone of Joe. There is no way any real woman would allow Joe to yell and scream at her; especially you feisty. I sure as hell would shut his mouth once and for all. I really do want to see the real Mika. I believe if an even tempered David Schuster had the position many more people could tolerate Morning Joke. If Lawrence O Donell were the host you can believe he would only jump down the throats of antagonistic out -of--tune right Wing Dings. I love a strong man. Lawrence is strong. I love a sensual man. David Schuster is a sensible man. Then we have our Chris Matthews who send a tingle up and down my spine everyday with hid hard bill, analyst and plethora of know. We have our Keith who no one con every replace with his humorously serious analyst. And let's not forget our Precious little pop-culture whom I love dearly because she keeps me hip and informed in a cool way. Nobody can beat Rachel being the hottest and coolest on Mis-information.
Lastly enjoy you visit with your mom. A Mom is a precious thing to have. I cannot express how precious your time with her is. Mine is gone and I wish every day she was here.
Todaloo

Once again many forget that unemployment is a trailing indicator of the economy. The recession began in December of 2007. So if the Bush Administration would have done something/anything maybe hundreds of thousands or even millions of jobs could have been saved. But no, you want to blame the Obama Administration, who has been in office only 4.5 months, for a problem that clearly started 18 months ago.
  You seem to be upset with what he is doing to help rebuild the economy but at least he is trying to fix this complex problem unlike the last administration who sat on their hands for over a year.
  Many conservatives love to acknowledge how great Ronald Regan was but they don’t talk the economic problems of his first term when both unemployment and inflation were above 10%.
  Ten percent is an important benchmark for both unemployment and inflation and there is a chance we will see both within the next year. There is a better chance that unemployment will drop below 10% before inflation exceeds 10%. But inflation will rise, just like it did with Regan due to what had to be done to re-energize the economy.
  Regan was able to accomplish stimulus with tax cuts because taxes were at higher rate than they have been since but some of the results of lower taxes are what we see today in our decaying infrastructure.
  No matter what happens with the economy, unemployment and inflation just be sure to remember that when the problem started we were not informed and nothing was done for almost a year. History will probably show this delay in action to be a critical cause for the depth and length of this recession.

  As an armchair quarterback evaluating all the government spending gives me ulcers. I have tried to look at it in a different way. I want to send my children to college because I know it will give them a better opportunity to achieve the American dream. To do this I must spend money I don’t have and my children will need student loans that they can’t afford and will take years to repay. This is much like what the government is doing, spending money they don’t have and will take years to repay so we can have a better future. Just like sending our children to college it is a gamble. Will they finish? Will they make good use of it? Will they end up in a dead end job and in debt forever? We don’t know but we got to give it a go. It’s the right thin to do.
DP - MI (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 10:29 AM)

Okay, lets look at the trend. New job losses started going up in January of 2008 and continued to increase through January 2009. February, March, and April were better than January. We will know more for sure in another few months, but it looks like things are starting to improve.

I know that really hurts those that wanted President Obama to fail. But it is good for our country and its people!
...So he'll be leaving behind a problem for his successor but essentially he doesn't care.

THANKS GOV (sent Fri. June 5, 2009 1008 am)
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My sentiments exactly! That's exactly how my friends and I feel about the last president, George Bush!  He reminds of a tenant who had the largest mansion in the country and before he left it, he set it comletely on fire and the next tenant, President Obama, had to come in and put the fire out.  The only problem is, is that he is using a bucket and  because there are so many things to be saved, it's going to take awhile.  Meantime, you have his detractors on the outside(GOP and the rest of their crowd) hollering you're not doing enough, you're doing too much, when is it going to get better?!!!!!!!!! Oh,  that crazy, insane, that disengenous ADHD crowd!!  As one of my favorite pundits would say, WTF.  PS: Lord, please let Sarah Palin run for president
Chris -
Thanks for the response, I agree we have made mistakes in the past, in some I beleive we were trying to do what we thought was right and in others we were just serbing our own interests. But, like you i beleive we have overwhelmingly done more good then bad.
Honestly I wish we could just stay out of the world's affairs. I wish we didn't have to worry about the israeli/palestinian problem. B/C honestly it doesn't affect me and as a libertarian I don't care much about things that don't affect me.
BTW: MSNBC reported a couple days ago that the unemployment rolls did not increase last week for the first time in many months. It might be another sign that the recession has bottomed out. If so, that's going to put wingnuts in a tizzy. Houston (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 10:17 AM)
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I am going to giggle like a little school girl when the jobs number goes positive...And because the GOP has done nothing, they will be able to claim absolutely zero credit.

Although i'm sure some will try and say it was the first 350 billion of the stimulus that bush signed (and then the money went POOF~!)
Tzalaran (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 10:18 AM)

Funny how the states with the worst budget problems, highest cost of living, biggest housing bubbles, highest taxes, fleeing tax base are all run by PC (Political Coward) Liberals. Hell your Pravda media can't even bring forth worthy human shields anymore.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1086-Ok,-Im-Done-With-Being-Nice.html
I am going to giggle like a little school girl when the jobs number goes positive...And because the GOP has done nothing, they will be able to claim absolutely zero credit.

Although i'm sure some will try and say it was the first 350 billion of the stimulus that bush signed (and then the money went POOF~!)
GP NW Indiana (

You mean like it did 98% of the time when Bush was President?

What will you call the 5 million losses of jobs under the Obama administration? Backing up for a good start?
DP - MI (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 10:29 AM)

Okay, lets look at the trend. New job losses started going up in January of 2008 and continued to increase through January 2009. February, March, and April were better than January. We will know more for sure in another few months, but it looks like things are starting to improve.

I know that really hurts those that wanted President Obama to fail. But it is good for our country and its people!
Chris - IL

Of course, that's if you only look at one specific set of numbers. People with a brain look at a lot of different things. One item people are looking at now are the under-employed, and the people that have just quit looking for work. Including those numbers, unemployment is well over 11%. Other numbers people with a brain look at is the debt and deficit, both of which are going up at an alarming rate - those are leading indicators btw. People at the Fed, weeeing they've diluted the dollar by printing more dollars, are also looking for inflation to tick up when that happens. That would be a very bad number to see rising.

But hey, keep the cheerleading up for Obama. You have a lot of company with the main stream media.
Dave, Tn (Sent Friday, June 05, 2009 11:43 AM)

And yet, didn't Tennessee just pass excessive tax increases on cigarettes, alcohol, and other "vices"?

Oh well, at least you can now carry a gun into the bar.


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