First thoughts: The Cairo effect?
Posted: Tuesday, June 09, 2009 9:29 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Cairo effect? For a moment, forget about the political back-and-forth over the stimulus, the latest drama surrounding Sarah Palin, the Supreme Court’s stay of Chrysler’s sale to Fiat, or today’s Democratic gubernatorial primary in Virginia. The most important political event over the past couple of days may very well have been Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Lebanon, where the American-backed coalition bested Hezbollah’s coalition. As the New York Times front-pages today, analysts are attributing the upset results, in part, to President Obama’s big Cairo speech last week. “It is hard to draw firm conclusions from one election. But for the first time in a long time, being aligned with the United States did not lead to defeat in the Middle East,” the paper says. The biggest test, however, comes on Friday, when Iran’s Ahmadinejad is running for re-election against a much more moderate candidate, Mir-Hossein Moussavi. “I think the speech of Obama in Cairo more likely played a role in neutralizing anti-Americanism,” Khalil al-Dakhil, a sociologist from Saudi Arabia told the Times. “It was a positive message. It was a conciliatory message.” Is a trend occurring in the Middle East? We’ll find out later this week.
*** Stay right here: But if Lebanon’s election was welcome news for the Obama White House, yesterday’s Supreme Court stay of Chrysler’s sale to Fiat certainly wasn’t. In a 53-word statement, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg halted -- at least temporarily -- the sale, the Washington Post writes. “The decision buys the court time to consider objections filed over the weekend, and it comes as the clock is ticking. Fiat can back out of the deal if it is not finalized by Monday, and the government has warned that the only alternative would be to force the nation's third-largest automaker into liquidation, throwing the industry in turmoil and leaving tens of thousands of people without jobs.” More from the Post: “The stakes may be higher for the Obama administration: If the court backs some of the claims, it could disrupt plans to rescue General Motors and weaken the government's hand in stabilizing the troubled economy.” Still, some observers believe that the court will approve of the sale, perhaps by as early as today.
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Video: There is more uncertainty for Chrysler as the Supreme Court puts its sale to Fiat on hold. The Italian car company, however, says it plans to stick by the ailing U.S. automaker. CNBC’s Melissa Francis reports. ***
Selling the stimulus: It's been a constant battle for the Obama White House ever since it got the bill passed -- selling an $800 billion stimulus to a skeptical public that’s feeling a bit burned out from taxpayer bailouts. Yesterday, the administration attempted to jump-start the media in its coverage of the stimulus. It didn't go so well. After prolonged questioning about the White House briefing, Obama officials admitted the initial claim of 150,000 jobs saved or created is based on a mathematical formula, "tried and true" claimed Biden economic adviser Jared Bernstein. And, in time, they may be proved correct. But we won't know for sure until the end of the quarter, when they match up real data with their statistical models. As we’ve said before, one of the administration’s big challenges is asking for patience -- for the economy to rebound and the stimulus to take effect -- in a country that usually prefers instant gratification, that has a 24/7 media constantly churning out stories, and that has a political environment in which the opposition is waiting to pounce on every shortcoming, real or perceived.
*** All about Terry: Here's one way to look at today's three-way Democratic gubernatorial in Virginia: It's all about Terry McAuliffe, and he probably wouldn't have it any other way. If McAuliffe wins, it would be due to his organization and laser-like focus on jobs and the economy. It would confirm that money and name ID do matter. And, of course, it would set up an entertaining and TV cable-friendly general election against Republican Bob McDonnell. But if McAuliffe loses -- to surging Creigh Deeds or (less likely) Brian Moran -- it would be due to concerns about his electability. It would confirm that the best-known and best-financed candidates don't always win. It would provide evidence, as we wrote yesterday, that newspaper endorsements (like the Washington Post’s nod to Deeds) can impact a race. And it would be another electoral loss for the Clintons and their friends, especially in Virginia (where Obama beat Hillary last year, 64%-35%). Still, the race is up for grabs. Deeds has surged ahead in the polls, but not far enough where you can declare the race over. More importantly, no one knows who's going to turn out to vote (some estimate that turnout will be around 200,000, compared with the nearly 1 million who voted in last year's Democratic presidential primary. Polling places opened at 6:00 am ET and close at 7:00 pm.
*** A few other things to watch: Will turnout cross the 200,000 mark? (The bigger the turnout, the more likely McAuliffe pulls this off; none of the three candidates has spent more money wooing the black vote, for instance, than Terry.) If Deeds wins, he'll face a rematch of sorts against McDonnell, to whom he lost by a handful of votes (after a recount) in the 2005 attorney general race. Still, as we suggested above, the story out of a Deeds win won't be his victory, but McAuliffe's loss. Terry may have been a flawed candidate from the start. He gave the impression that he woke up one day and thought, "Hey, maybe I can win the Virginia governorship." A few years back, he pondered a run for Florida governor, but the state has a seven-year residency requirement. If McAuliffe does come up short, his candidacy should serve as a reminder to anyone thinking about running for office -- know why you want to run and lay the groundwork for years, not weeks or months. Furthermore, for what it's worth, a Deeds win would make Virginia's Big Three Dem officials (Warner, Kaine, and Webb) feel a lot more comfortable getting behind the nominee. Those close to the three have never been able to convey any enthusiasm for McAuliffe for the reasons stated above. Moran is looking like an afterthought, but one wonders if he should have kept his sights on the LG race as some thought he was going to do a few years ago. As for Deeds, if he does win, he'll have to ramp up his fundraising in a hurry. Sure, he can win a Dem primary with a handful of voters (and a Washington Post endorsement) by being outspent. But he can't win in November that way.
*** 'Monty, I’ll take what’s behind door No. 3': You might not have known this from yesterday’s drama surrounding Sarah Palin (would she attend, would she speak?), but the headliner at last night’s NRCC/NRSC fundraiser was Newt Gingrich. In his remarks, Gingrich maintained that Republicans would return to majority status if they followed the course of lower taxes and free markets, and he said Obama was overmatched on national security by Dick Cheney. Just askin’, but how many Republican strategists who care about making the GOP a majority party again would like someone (anyone) from behind door number three? If Gingrich vs. Palin is really what the battle of the leadership of the GOP ends up being, one would truly have to wonder if the two were privately in cahoots with Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.
Video: Republicans hosted their biggest fundraiser of the year, reportedly raising more than $14 million, but not without its share of drama. Newt Gingrich was almost disinvited and Gov. Sarah Palin was supposed to be the headliner, but never officially agreed.
***
Senate’s attendance record: By the way, here is a fascinating stat, courtesy of the
Washington Post: It's been 15 months since all 100 senators have cast a vote. Of course, there are only 99 senators right now (see Franken, Al), but Kennedy and Byrd have both missed quite a few votes due to health.
***
Coup in New York! "Chaos reigned in Albany on Monday night after Republicans seemingly pulled off an unprecedented midsession coup to gain control of the chamber," the
New York Daily News writes. "The GOP flipped two Democrats to shift power to their side, making one of them, Pedro Espada Jr. (D-Bronx), the temporary Senate president." However, as the Washington Post’s Cillizza notes, this could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for Democrats, because it helps free up state Sen. Darrel Aubertine to make a run for the congressional seat vacated by John McHugh (R), who left the House to become Obama’s Army secretary. “The concern -- prior to the coup -- was that an Aubertine House candidacy would force a special election that Democrats would likely lose, a defeat that would hand control of the state Senate back to Republicans. With that scenario off the table, Aubertine is free to pursue a House candidacy.”
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 147 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 511 days
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