First thoughts: Obama's summer blues
Posted: Thursday, July 09, 2009 9:24 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama’s summertime blues: Has anyone else noticed that, for a third straight year, the summer has proven to be Barack Obama’s low point? In 2007, the summer was his nadir during the build-up to the primaries (remember those debates over Pakistan and negotiating with unsavory world leaders?) before beginning to take off in the fall after the Iowa J-J dinner. And in 2008, the summer was his low point in the general election against John McCain (remember the Paris and Britney ad, as well as those tightening poll numbers?) Now, with rising doubts about his stimulus plan, disagreements about how to proceed on health care, 2010 recruiting struggles (see below), and declining poll numbers, the summer is again proving to be problematic for him. Then again, when the real games don’t take place in the summer -- whether it’s the primaries, the general election, or his deadline to get a health-care bill -- you have time to retool, right?
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Video: CNBC's John Harwood reports that Republicans and Democrats in Congress are sparring over how successful the Obama stimulus spending plan has been, as deficit concerns grow.
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Backseat drivers to the rescue: Of course, when Obama is down, liberal columnists and pundits inevitably begin their back-seat driving. Here's Joe Klein in
Time: "The fact is, Obama may be blowing a major opportunity for reform with his domestic-policy diffidence. He came to office faced with an unprecedented economic crisis, and he focused on it successfully during his first 100 days, giving two excellent speeches about the need for a stimulus plan and general economic reform. He has lost that focus as his other initiatives have come online; he has failed to speak with precision or clarity about the bills wandering through Congress. He has failed to make clear what needs to be in those bills -- and what can't be -- if he is going to sign them. He also needs to update the public on his stimulus plan, especially now that his Vice President inadvertently dissed it. And he needs to make a direct assault on the greedheads who created the Ponzi economy and are now trying to gut his plan to make them do business honestly."
*** Biden hits Ohio, New York: Trying to promote the stimulus -- which gets more criticism on the New York Times’ front page -- Vice President Biden travels today to Cincinnati, OH and Saratoga County, NY. The visit to Ohio comes after a recent Quinnipiac poll showed Obama’s approval rating in the state plunging from 62% in May to 49% now. And Biden’s stop in New York will include embattled Gov. David Paterson (D) and Rep. Scott Murphy (D), who won that recent NY-20 special congressional election in part by campaigning for the stimulus. To counter Biden’s stop in Ohio, House Minority Leader John Boehner today holds a conference call with reporters. Meanwhile, in Italy, President Obama has already held a bilateral meeting with Brazil President Silva, attended a joint session meeting, and had working lunch. Later today, he attends a Major Economies Forum discussion and hits a G8 dinner.
*** More Palin pile-on: The piling on of Palin continues -- with a New York Daily News column by GOP strategist Mike Murphy, who asks: “Why is there still so much Republican love for Sarah Palin?” He adds, “Other politicians are more reliable conservatives; Palin ran for governor on a set of populist issues usually linked to Alaska Democrats. She lacks any real accomplishment - no military or private-sector career of note, no academic achievement… She has served only two years as governor of a small and uniquely easy-to-govern state (other governors pine for Alaska's small population and billions of dollars in easy revenue from oil production), a job she has now abandoned. The answer is that Palin profits mightily from a Republican blind spot. She has all the right smirking enemies in America's media elite.” Also, be sure not to miss Jeb Bush’s comments that the GOP’s ideas and messaging are stuck in the 1990s.
Video: Gov. Sarah Palin claims her resignation is in the best interests of her family and the state of Alaska, but is she really just concerned about her own ambition? GOP strategist Ron Christie and Salon.com’s Joan Walsh join Hardball guest host Lawrence O’Donnell.
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House Dems vs. CIA, part 2: Just when we thought the CIA-vs.-House Dem storyline had ended -- when is the last time House Republicans have tried to whack House Speaker Nancy Pelosi over her back-and-forth with the intelligence agency? -- it’s baaaccckkk. Per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, six House Democratic members of the Intelligence Committee wrote CIA chief Leon Panetta a letter, claiming that he told them that the CIA had concealed important information from Congress during the Bush years. “In light of your testimony,” they concluded, “we ask that you publicly correct your statement of May 15 2009,” in which Panetta said it was not the CIA’s policy to mislead Congress. Mitchell reminds us about the backdrop to this dispute: The White House threatened to veto the House intelligence bill, if a Democratic-backed proposal supported by Pelosi expands the number of members briefed on covert activities. The legislation also leaves it up to Congress, and not the White House, to decide who gets access to the information.
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Video: NBC terrorism analyst Roger Cressey, Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Post and MSNBC’s Dylan Ratigan discuss the escalating war of words over statements made by senior CIA officials.
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Cornyn’s excellent week… : As our friends at Hotline have noted, Sen. John Cornyn and the folks at the National Republican Senatorial Committee have had quite a week. First, they seem to have convinced New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) to run for the seat Judd Gregg (R) is vacating, which gives them a decent shot at holding on to the seat. Then, South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) decided against challenging John Thune (R), making it all but certain that Thune will cruise to re-election. And yesterday in Illinois, the Democrats’ best potential statewide candidate -- Lisa Madigan -- decided not to run, while the GOP’s best potential candidate -- Mark Kirk -- said yes, giving Republicans they best chance of winning major office there in more than 10 years. This good news for the GOP comes after being dealt a pretty tough hand earlier this year, including five retirements (in FL, KS, MO, NH, OH).
*** … And the White House’s rough one: On the flip side, the White House has had a rough last couple of weeks when it comes to 2010 Senate contests. That all the Illinois politicians working at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. -- Obama, Rahm Emanuel, Valerie Jarrett -- couldn’t help convince Madigan to run in a race where she’d be the clear front-runner was a blow. What’s more, they weren’t able to stop Rep. Carolyn Maloney from challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in a Democratic primary in New York, or Joe Sestak from challenging Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. The overall Senate map still favors Democrats, but not as much as it did a couple of weeks ago.
*** What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas? Just when we thought that John Ensign's
affair had been buried by the Sanford, Palin, and Michael Jackson news come some new revelations. In a TV interview with Nevada political guru Jon Ralston, Doug Hampton, the Ensign staffer married to the woman the senator had his affair with, says that he asked for millions of dollars in restitution and that Ensign gave his wife $25,000 in severance. What's more, Hampton produced a letter from Ensign -- citing his relationship with God -- that professed the senator's desire to end the affair, but then Hampton alleges that Ensign tried to resume it 24 hours later. Finally, we’ve learned that Sen. Tom Coburn (R), of all people,
knew about the affair and urged Ensign to end it. (“Had Sen. Ensign followed Dr. Coburn’s advice, this episode would have ended, and been made public, long ago,” Coburn’s office said in a statement.) Late last night, Ensign’s office released a statement trying to discredit Hampton. “In response to today’s television interview, Senator Ensign said Doug Hampton was consistently inaccurate in his statements."
*** 2009 watch: During her 1:00 pm hour show on MSNBC, Andrea Mitchell interviews vulnerable New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D), who’s running against Chris Christie (R) in November. Mitchell also interviews Rep. Anna Eshoo (one of the Dems who wrote that letter to Panetta), Eric Cantor, and Jim Clyburn.
Countdown to Palin Stepping Down: 17 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 117 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 481 days
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