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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Obama approval high; confidence slips

Posted: Thursday, July 09, 2009 1:07 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama continues to enjoy a high job approval rating and many personally like him, but there are signs that the public's confidence is slipping, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll out today.

On the president's job approval, 61% of respondents said they approve of Obama's job versus 37% who don't. That's about the same as in May.



Also, 79% say they personally like him. Neither George W. Bush (through his presidency) nor Bill Clinton (post presidency) enjoyed higher approval ratings dating back to 1999. (The released poll does not go back further.)

Seven in 10 (70%) say they think President Obama is a strong and decisive leader, but that's his lowest number in the poll since becoming president -- down 10 points since February. But it's still strong.

Almost six in 10 (56%) say Obama generally agrees with them on issues. That's down seven points since February and 12 since December.

Almost three quarters (72%) say he inspires confidence -- almost the same as in February. But only 53% now say he has a clear plan for solving the country's problems, down 11 points since February.

All around, his numbers have come down from what were sky-high levels -- on being tough enough to handle a crisis (64% -- down from 73%) and being able to manage the government effectively (61% -- down from 76% from December).

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Leave it to First Read to cite the CNN poll, with no mention of the Rasmussen poll, the Quinnipiac poll of Ohio, the PPP poll of Virginia, or the Gallup poll.  Those numbers tell a different story.  But I'm sure all the Obama defenders will enthusiastically hype this poll-the same ones who this morning said 'polls don't matter.'  
The CNN poll in generous. Many others show Obie in the mid-50's.

Regardless, the trend is clear.
Seven in 10 (70%) say they think President Obama is a strong and decisive leader, but that's his lowest number in the poll since becoming president -- down 10 points since February. But it's still strong.
----------------------------------------------------

Now if FR were one blogger in particular, they would of only state that 37% in the country do not approve of Obama, and omit the rest.


An overwhelming majority like, and approve of our president.  Facts are facts.  

Other then spend a lot of money, complain about Bush, and fly around the world apologizing, just what has Obama done?
Any bets on how long before NoJoNoBo chimes in with his own set of numbers?  

3...2...1...

Over all I'm impressed!  Given the mess that was handed to him by the Cheeeneee administration I'm not surprised they would drop marginally.

It just points out yet again that this country is ALL about instant gratification! I WANT it fixed & I WANT it fixed NOW!!!

Yeah... let's compare 8 years to 6 months now shall we!  
Two big failures on the way for Obama. His healthcare plan, and cap and trade. When that happens, his base will start to crumble, and he will too.
Approval ratings are fun, but I am more focused on real, tangible changes for the better for WE THE PEOPLE.

If President Obama can get health care reform passed, he will have accomplished a great victory for the American people.

Polling is for elections - now is the time to govern. Here's hoping Congress doesn't let us down, again.
====================================================
Response from "First Thoughts":

"Hey Nash

You really have to get over the nit picking.  The 8% figure was used by members of his administration to help get the stimulus bill passed. -Alan, NJ
==========================================

Hey Alan, it's not nitpicking, it's pursuit of the truth.

And you still haven't provided me with a single quote by President Obama or any of his staff saying anything of the sort.

It just didn't happen.


How can say the stimulus will keep unemployment under 8% when it was ALREADY 8% at the time it was signed?


Read the preinaugural report based on a fictional stimulus (not the one that was passed) for yourself, and then you tell me what's true:

http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf


An overwhelming majority like, and approve of our president.  Facts are facts.  


Greg P NW Indiana

An overwhelming majority liked Michael Jackson too, but he was no great shakes either. Maybe we should chalk both up to pop culture, kind of like how people liked another empty headed bimbo, Princess Di.

Facts is facts.
Maybe we haven't waited long enough for Bush's refund checks from last year to positively affect the economy. We might as well wait around for those refunds to work out seeing it looks like liberals want us to wait forever before Obama's trillion daollar stimulus plan will work.
It just points out yet again that this country is ALL about instant gratification! I WANT it fixed & I WANT it fixed NOW!!!

So does that mean you are willing to wait until the economy improves before passing Health Care Reform.
Comments by his redheaded cheerleaders aside, Obama can't be happy to see these numbers.  Yes, they're higher than Bush's were...in 2008.  Anybody else remember Bush's 90% approval rating back in 2001?  A combination of a mini-recession, the Patriot Act, a mess in Iraq, a fiercely partisan streak, and Katrina brought those figures back down to Earth.  Obama's facing an even larger recession, a continuation of Bush's unpopular security policies, a mess in Afghanistan, and wildly partisan legislation that is not guaranteed to pass even with his allies' strong majorities in Congress.

Obama is a far better president than Bush (thus far), but that may not be enough.  He needs to imitate Clinton by hugging the middle and casting his more radical followers adrift.
One thing remains very clear, President Obama's approval ratings are still high and the dopes of nope are still low.  While Obama and the Democrats try to find ways to stall the bushwhacked economy the dopes of nope have done nothing to help the situation they caused with their deregulation and tax cut welfare for the rich and greedy.  All of their whining has not created or saved a single job.

Barack needs to jettison the bipartisan nonsense and just get the Democrats to pass the legislation needed to recover from the ills caused by the repugnant ones.  When the economy recovers it will be Obama and the Democrats who get the glory while the dopes of nope eat humble pie.  Ofcourse the dopes of nope want to proclaim premature victory just as they always do as they have nothing else to hang their dilapidated hats on.

In Obama We Trust!
I wish all the nay-sayers here would think back to the state of the economy last fall and winter and remember the free fall it was in--which started on Bush's watch.  It has only been 6 months--can't you give President Obama credit for trying to solve the many problems we face?  The negativity here is bad enough but the animosity directed at the President is astounding.  For all that I didn't agree with George Bush, I never thought he didn't love his country and want what was best for it.  I don't understand why President Obama isn't given the same respect.
I am so glad Barack Obama was elected as our president. When I listen to the right wing media; when I listen to the likes of Lindsey Graham, John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Dick Cheney, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin, Eric Cantor, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani –I just thank the heavens they are no longer dictating anything.

The GOP policies have ruined this country and it will take a long long long time to get it back on its correct course. The stimulus bill everyone is screaming about? The GOP DIDN’T want it. They want to see this country go down the tubes and blame President Obama and the Democrats. What idiots. For it will be the American themselves who will suffer. Yea, sure, they love America.

President Obama and Vice President Biden and the entire Administration are working their tails off for the American people. The GOP did nothing in the last 8 years. Nothing. They literally ruined everything they touched. Incompetence will do that.

May they NEVER be in a powerful position ever again. Keith, Rachel, Ed, Lawrence & their guests - smart, educated, dignified, realistic. I hate to think what this country would be like without them. Fox & CNN - just awful.
So far so good
It is understandable that his numbers are slipping slightly, the economy isn't coming around as fast as people hoped

I heard Sen Sherrod Brown (D-OH) last night saying it took 10 years to get us into this mess and it'll take a while to get us out of it

You're right about instant gratification, Feisty Redhead, but that is the nature of the beast

These polls are like a horse race
I'll hope for long term results
Obama will soon get Sotomayor confirmed
Hopefully, he'll get Health Care passed (if Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson don't Stabe him in the Back)

That'll bring up his numbers
Hopefully, the economy will pick up sooner rather than later


Speaking of polls:

From Washingtonmonthly:

'... Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R) may be considering Minnesota's gubernatorial race next year, but he shouldn't discount the damage done to his reputation during the recount ordeal. A new survey from Public Policy Polling shows Coleman's favorable rating down to just 38%. Asked if his recount efforts make them "more or less likely" to support a Coleman gubernatorial campaign, a majority of respondents said "less likely."...'

38% seems a little HIGH for Norm Coleman
Being a Cheating little Cry Baby doesn't enhance your popularity
Wow, the Obama haters are out in full force.  

Feisty Redhead from IL (I'm a feisty redhead from Indiana); you are exactly right!!!  Have you noticed how the haters have completely forgotten who got us into this mess and who continues to thwart any effort to fix things?  I'll give you a hint--"G" (either for GOP or George W.)
I would like to protest the lack of jobs.  I'm still looking for all those jobs that Obama promised.
Willing to Work (Sent Thursday, July 09, 2009 11:50 AM)

***********************************************************
Oh when did Obama promise that?  a source or documentation would be really helpful here, because I keep seeing and hearing this repeated over and over but I've never seen where anything was  actually promised.   Just wondering if you are relying on what you are hearing from people who only care about their own personal power or lack of and have been known to fabricate stories, knowing full well that there will be no shortage of submissive tools who are ready and willing to repeat whatever they hear.  
Eileen from Portland, ME

Eileen, Obama did. He promised 3-4 million jobs if his stimulus plan was passed in Congress and signed into law by him. Then, in June, Obama promised 600,000 jobs would be created over the next three months. Since making these promises, the US has lost an additional 2 million jobs.

This news was in all the papers, on tv, and in the political and business magazines. I'm surprised you missed all of it.
Ron Indiana sounds the alarm:

White House – Move-On Alert

Today in Indiana ads were on TV urging people to contact Evan Bayh to vote AGAINST the public option for healthcare.

Ron Indiana


White House - Moveon: same thing.
From earlier post:

You've got it all wrong. If you want to immitate me and use my moniker then at least get the names right.

Feisty Airhead
Feisty Deadhead
Feisty Scarehead

That's more like it and now we've leveled the playing field. Obie is BBBAAADDD for America. Bad Chihuahua (Sent Thursday, July 09, 2009 1:03 PM)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Listen you rabid rat… WTF are YOU TALKING about?  Don’t flatter yourself I would NEVER use your moniker… it would be too hard to get rid of the FLEAS!!

The only thing you leveled is your CREDIBILTY yet again!
In all honesty the Dems have no one to blame but themselves for any drop in approval numbers.  The left has always had problems with staying united when they have the edge(at least since Regan).  It's because they have constructed this educated image for themselves.  So as a result they are trying to be the one with the best idea so they can further assert the perception of intelligence.  This is good and bad.  It's good in the sense that at least they have some debate over their proposed solutions (albeit in my opinon most of the solutions from the left are impractical), but it also takes longer for legislatin to get through.  

I'm surprised cap and trade made it thorgh as quick as it did (the fact that it was so close is kind of a testement to party in fighting though).  If they want to succeed (and by suceed I mean push their agenda not actually fix anything) they should probably take a lesson from the GOP and tighten up the ranks.

Of course I could care less if they fail (which they will).  I'm not too fond of either major party.  
Let's hear it for the black man who thinks he knows everything who is married to the black lady who thinks she has a great figure!  

What great qualifications!

And don't forget the news media who all sleep at the foot of his bed!

 
Good grief..so I guess we are going to hear about Obama's slipping numbers for about the next 9 months. Please alert me when he hits 45% otherwise these polls are becomming increasingly redundant.
Two big failures on the way for Obama. His healthcare plan, and cap and trade. When that happens, his base will start to crumble, and he will too.
Kapt Kruncher (Sent Thursday, July 09, 2009 1:18 PM)
/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
Do you really think his majority in congress would let that happen? Don't forget failure of HCR will hurt all Dem's. and Republicans don't have the votes to stop it.
Dear Pollster:

If you are seeking the Rasmussen (biased GOP) Poll, you are on the wrong web site.

If you are into looking at the political world through the wrond end of the telescope, you can find what you will need on that same site.

Reverse engineering by the very best in cable news...and idiot speak at its finest.
RPUBLICAN TROLLS WITH USELESS ATTACKS, LIES, AND SMEAR IN 3,2,1.
Cowards/Republicans hide behind words, their party, or their momma's dress.
Patriots let their actions speak for themselves.
"Pollster", thanks for reading. But to give you some insight into how we read polls: As we've mentioned on the blog previously, the statistical community generally endorses live telephone interview polls as the accepted methodology. We certainly keep an eye on the others -- ie Rasmussen, PPP, etc. But you won't see us reporting on them generally because they are robo polls and seen to be less reliable measures. As far as Quinnipiac -- and Obama's slipping numbers in it -- we linked to it in our featured First Thoughts section this morning. Thanks for reading, and thanks for the feedback, as always. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/07/09/1990651.aspx
RPUBLICAN TROLLS WITH USELESS ATTACKS, LIES, AND SMEAR IN 3,2,1.
Cowards/Republicans hide behind words, their party, or their momma's dress.
Patriots let their actions speak for themselves.
This poll shows much higher numbers for Obama than do other recent polls which notably question his plans for the country and find him to be a weak leader.
Maybe this just signals that people realize there IS no "clear plan" for fixing the current economic crisis, and they -- correctly -- do NOT blame President Obama for that.  

By the way, you would give me better information if I also knew whether voters were asked if republicans have a "clear plan."  I'd love to hear THOSE numbers.  At least President Obama HAS a plan.  
Sorry, but there's no way you can have Obama in high approval but sinking like a rock in confidence.  Polling shows that he's a clueless empty suit. End of Story.
Other then spend a lot of money, complain about Bush, and fly around the world apologizing, just what has Obama done?
Obama is One and Done
Well if bush had not spent all the money when we did have it, 1.2tiliion in tax cuts and 800 bullion on 2 wars then his job would have been easier from the start. remember bush started with a surplus and pissed it away.
what has the president done so far, he has put money back in the economey that the previous president did not want to do, he has put his health care plan on the table, he has with the help with the russians reduced nucular weponds by 20% signed exective orders reguarding stem cell recearch,and as you said went around the world apologizing to other world leaders for starting a war based upon lies, to get out credibality back, in 5 months that more than the previous president did in 8 years except pissing the surplus away.  
Pollster (Sent Thursday, July 09, 2009 1:14 PM)
Leave it to First Read to cite the CNN poll, with no mention of the Rasmussen poll, the Quinnipiac poll of Ohio, the PPP poll of Virginia, or the Gallup poll.  Those numbers tell a different story

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Excuse me,Pollster
Pollsters like you, Rasmussen poll and the skew-master Frank Luntz. Understandably, many people don't understand the sick news they constantly being
inundated by Right Wind Nuts eager to gaincontrol of the same old thing again.

RIGHT WING DING DONGS forgetebouit; just as the  President brushed those flakes off  his shoulders during vicious attacks in the campaign; soon the opinions perpetuated constantly be you nuts will be dismissed too. Hello!

RIGHT WING DING DONGS your instant gratification will soon go away. Are you enjoying your instant gratification nuts.
Feisty once again showing her ignorant bias. Time to move on girl.
Well if bush had not spent all the money when we did have it,
jeff Evanston IL

Well he did, so quit whining about it will you.
That's the problem with must people, you want everything to change from one day to another; without saying Obama is superhuman, what great change in your personal lives have you done that happened overnight??? Imagine that in a country with so many problems, not just $$$ ones, but politicaly ones as well.
What a joke this poll would be.  It's like democrats believing that they have this great mule, but it would be lacking all four legs.  One has to look at this type of story in a realistic way.
BTW, where's all the jobs Obama promised?
You had an interesting line in first thoughts about summer polling. During the primary and election cycle, Obama's polling numbers usually declined during the summer, weekends and holidays. I always suspected that Obama supporters were more affluent and younger, and more likely to travel over these periods. Remember the Iowa caucuses came right after Xmas and New Years when there was scant polling, and almost nobody predicted his big win. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
jeff Evenstaon: "Other then spend a lot of money, complain about Bush, and fly around the world apologizing, just what has Obama done?"
---------------------------------------

Obama got an agreement from the Russians to let US fly cargoes of weapons over Russia to the war zone in Afghanistan. That's one significant accomplishment that Bush's policy of bullying and threats failed to achieve.  

He also got an law passed that protects women from workplace discrimination, which they lost when the radical rightwingers on the Supreme Court legislated from the bench and ruled against the clear intent of an older law that was supposed to provide the same protection. But who knows? Maybe the wingnut majority on the Supreme Court will legislate from the bench yet again and eviscerate the new law. Then you and the other rightwingnuts can gleefully score that it an Obama loss.
And speaking of health care, what say we REQUIRE that Federal Government Employees (including CONGRESS) take the public health care option.  If it's going to be so good and so economical, why not?  Don't even provide an option (at least for Congress).

That might ensure that the public option is actually a viable option!

Perhaps the reason that Congress has exempted themselves from having to use it is actually an indicator and a warning.  They have the best health care in the world.  Do you really think they will drop their luxury insurance?

I'm just saying...
Even when reporting bad news for Obama, it has to be sprinkled and spiked with praise for him.
Dear Pollster:

If you are seeking the Rasmussen (biased GOP) Poll, you are on the wrong web site.

If you are into looking at the political world through the wrond end of the telescope, you can find what you will need on that same site.

Reverse engineering by the very best in cable news...and idiot speak at its finest.
---------------------------------------------------
gregb, thanks for proving my original point.  Rasmussen, Gallup, Quinnipiac, and PPP say one thing, and CNN says another.   So you only believe the one, and disregard four other respected polls.  
TO Obama is One and Done:  President Obama has done more in his first 6 months, then your do nothing Repbubs did in 8 years, but your too stupid and only listen to the Repub network, Fake News!!!!
Pollster: "Leave it to First Read to cite the CNN poll, with no mention of the Rasmussen poll, the Quinnipiac poll of Ohio, the PPP poll of Virginia, or the Gallup poll.  Those numbers tell a different story."
-------------

Quit your whining. FR did an "Obama's summertime blues" thing earlier today. It's good to see at least a small amount of balance, even though these horse race numbers aren't real news.

Obama's approval ratings are sure to go down as the unemployment rate goes up. And his approval ratings will go back up if the economy begins to improve, which I expect it will thanks to the stimulus, as John McCain's economic adviser Mark Zandie predicted yesterday on the PBS evening news. (Now that was REAL news).
Let's hear it for the black man who thinks he knows everything who is married to the black lady who thinks she has a great figure!  
What great qualifications!
And don't forget the news media who all sleep at the foot of his bed!  
Disgusted in america (Sent Thursday, July 09, 2009 1:38 PM)
******************************************************
Our President and First Lady are both well educated individuals who are working hard for us and our country.  They are excellent role models for young Americans, families, parents and young women - just to name a few.  

They're "black"...really??? How does this matter about ANYTHING.
Your bigotry is really ugly.  

How about you show your intelligence and love of country by offering some solutions to our current problems....and I mean REAL solutions.



Jeff, evanston:

Just a minor point, but Bush started with PROJECTIONS of surpluses based on PROJECTIONS of REVENUES that have been roundly criticized as unrealistic.

Then there was Al Gore, who also promised to "spend" the "surpluses".  Imagine if those programs became obligations that needed to be met after 9/11 and in the context of inevitable economic downturn and decreased revenues.

Obama's work with the Russians on nukes mirrors Bush's similar agreement with Putin which brought Obama to the lower levels of nukes that he continues to work at lowering further.

I'd say that you spelled "nuclear" the way you did to take a dig at George Bush, but my eye was drawn to "weponds" and "credibality" and "economey" and concluded I was being too generous.

And if it hadn't been for Bush funding stem cell research with federal money for the first time, we might not have artificial sperm cells today, an advance that is truly breathtaking and will undoubtedly bring Christopher Reeve back to life.

Remember that Obama started with a deficit and has promised to quadruple it.  Our only hope is that the incompetence in distributing the "stimulus" continues and they won't have to spend it all when the economy recovers largely on its own.

Then they can even claim an economic coup when their deficits are only $800 billion instead of a trillion, based on the success of a stimulus that isn't fully funded.

I never said he wasn't politically adept.  Run-of-the-mill is my favorite description.
800 bullion?  He paid the bills with gold?
Anna Molly:

What difference does it make if Republicans have a clear plan when the issue is whether the President and Congress in power has one?

Why should Republicans be expected to contribute anything?  They were, after all, 100 percent responsible for every problem we have today, including the latest study that shows aging as the largest cause of death. I would assume, anyway.

With the president, a 60 vote Senate and an unstoppable majority in Congress, I'm afraid everthing's on you folks. I can only sit back and watch, completely justified in complaining about anything I don't like.

Asking what the Republicans' plan is a non sequitur.

It is, as so many of the FR elite say about Republicans, irrelevant.
Domenico - thanks for replying!!  

Feisty - OMG I was laughing so hard about the rabid rat comment.  You spanked him good!!

And by the way, why is it republicans hate people who do charitable work?  Let's say like Princess Di and Michael Jackson.  These 2 people raised and donated more money to charities then probably anyone else.  I don't understand the picking on humanitarians concept.  I myself am grateful for the people who step up and help these organizations.    
ANY DOUBTS OBAMA IS A MUSLIM-TERRORIST SYMPATHIZER?

From: Jewish World Review June 29, 2009.

"Top Obama aide --- Valerie Jarrett --- invites head of terrorist-linked org to join administration task force.

A top aide to President Barack Obama --- Valerie Jarrett --- provided a keynote address at last weekend's 46th Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) national convention, a gathering that attracted thousands of people and also featured anti-Semitic, homophobic rhetoric and defense of the terrorist group Hezbollah.

While many panels at the convention featured criticism of U.S. policy and law enforcement, one stood out for its hate-filled rhetoric, and ISNA officials should have seen it coming a mile away. During a "meet the authors" session, Imam Warith Deen Umar, former head of the New York state prison chaplain program managed to:

Argue that key Obama aides are "Israeli," proving Jews "have control of the world."
Malign the motives of Jews active in the Civil Rights movement.
Portray the Holocaust as punishment of Jews for being "serially disobedient to Allah."
Insinuate that Hurricane Katrina was a result of tolerance for homosexuality.

Umar's radicalism is no secret. He previously hailed the 9/11 hijackers as martyrs who were secretly admired by Muslims. He has called for violent jihad.

UNDERSTAND OBAMA --- HE HATES AMERICA!
This president has had to endure a hate factor unlike any elected official in our country's history. There is a core that does not just disagree with him, but is publicly advocating for his failure. This great message we sent to the rest of the world on election day last fall and on inauguration day is being drown out by a group of haters who would rather see our great country go down the tubes than have President Obama be successful.
It is not as if this opposition has an alternative. The fat cats have aligned themselves with a redneck lunatic fringe hell bent on keeping the average American and, the spit, spit, cough, puke POOR, spit, DOWN, where they belong. Upward mobility, the basis for capitalism, is being eliminated because this cross mix of the rich elite and their street thugs will do anything in their power to regain power.
Wake up... We won the past election and we can fight too... This talk of doubling the deficit is nonsense. The programs such as health care, the stimulus, education and cap and trade are INVESTMENTS in our future, not liabilities... If they succeed, they will pay back the investment with interest.
Do I agree with everything the president is suggesting? No, but I know he is genuinely doing what he thinks is best for the country as a whole, not some select, elite few. I would have given a larger amount of the stimulus money to the poor and middle class, because they would have immediately infused it into our troubled economy. The trickle down of the rich has proved to be less than a tinkle on the rest of us with their off shore investments and tax sheltered crap.
So, hunker down, America and let's give this president the support he needs and deserves to get us out of this mess.


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