First thoughts: Nov. here we come
Posted: Thursday, July 16, 2009 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** November here we come: Like it or not, the campaign season is already upon us -- again. President Obama this afternoon heads to New Jersey, where he hits a fundraiser (at 3:35 pm ET) and then an outdoor rally (4:25 pm) for vulnerable Gov. Jon Corzine (D), who's up for re-election in November. It’s Obama’s first rally for a candidate since becoming president. Also today, Vice President Biden will be in Virginia, where he attends a fundraiser in Richmond for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds and also promotes health-care reform and the stimulus. Those gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia are the two marquee races this off-year. And their outcomes will definitely tell us something about Obama and the state of the Republican Party. If Republicans win both, that could signal another chink in the Obama armor and a possible GOP resurgence. On the other hand, if Dems win both, it could mean that the Republican brand remains in the dumps.
*** Corzine’s Garden State challenge: Of the two races right now, New Jersey appears to be the tougher challenge for Democrats -- and it really doesn't have anything to do with Obama. Corzine has consistently trailed Republican Chris Christie (12 points per the latest Quinnipiac poll), which is never a good sign for an incumbent running for re-election. In short, the race is a referendum on Corzine, and his best opportunity to win in this deep-blue state (which Obama carried 57%-42% last year) is to turn it into a referendum on Christie. As political analyst Stuart Rothenberg reminds First Read, it’s precisely what McCain tried to do to Obama last year. And, as we know, that didn’t work. Yet the question we're hearing bit about regarding Obama's stumping with Corzine is: Why now? Well, the president has to give an incumbent Dem governor some respect, so he's going NOW, in July. The real question is whether he comes back in September or October. Our guess: He'll only return if Corzine shows signs of political life.
*** The Great American Health-Care Fight: Here’s a look at all the moving parts on health care: Obama meets at the White House with conservative Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson (at 11:30 am) and moderate GOP Sen. Olympia Snowe (11:45 am ) to discuss the issue… Families USA and PhRMA say they have hired the actors who played Harry and Louise in that iconic ‘90s TV ad against health-care reform to appear in a multimillion ad campaign SUPPORTING reform this time… In his remarks from the Rose Garden yesterday, Obama said that the White House would be focusing on health care until Congress’ August recess. "We're going to be continually talking about this for the next two or three weeks, until we've got a bill [out of] the Senate.”… And with the Senate HELP bill passing the committee yesterday by a party-line vote, Republicans are complaining that the Democratic push for health-care reform isn’t bipartisan.
Video: As the Obama administration pushes for a finished health care bill by August, Democrats in the House and Senate on Wednesday put forward their plans, which included tax increases and requirements that employers help pay for insurance. NBC's Capitol Hill Correspondent Kelly O'Donnell reports.
***
Where’s Baucus? By the way, the guy who has been too quiet this week in this renewed White House push on health care: Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus.
Baucus is hesitant to move publicly until he gets at least passive approval from his GOP committee partner, Chuck Grassley. Clearly, the White House is trying to move Baucus along, as they agreed to Grassley's suggestion to meet with some moderate/pragmatic conservative Republicans at the White House yesterday (and today). Still, there is a level of frustration growing among many Democrats that Baucus hasn't made many public statements this week on timing, nor has made much public progress on a plan. Everyone is trying to defer to him, but he seems to be taking so much time that the White House might start wondering about alternative ways to move health care along -- a signal that the Senate HELP committee bill might have more life in it than some observers believe.
*** Stimulus pushback: A fairly significant political development we haven’t mentioned yet was the Obama administration’s pushback earlier this week to Arizona GOP Sen. Jon Kyl, who suggested to “cancel” the stimulus funding. So what did the administration do? They had cabinet secretaries write Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) asking if she wanted to hand back her state’s stimulus money. As Politico’s Martin writes, “Brewer knew she’d been thrown a high, hard one.” The administration continues its stimulus hardball with Vice President Biden promoting the stimulus in the Richmond, VA area -- which just happens to be Eric Cantor’s congressional district.
*** Just askin’: In the stories reporting on some minor tensions between the White House and Clinton’s State Department, how much of this is Clinton wanting turf? Or her staff pushing for Clinton to want turf? Or something the press is blowing out of proportion? The White House has certainly exerted some role over State, including ambassadors and a recent decision to nix the hiring of Sidney Blumenthal (which shouldn’t surprise anyone who followed the primary campaign). Then again, as Henry Kissinger has told Clinton -- confirmed by the New York Times -- there appears to be less friction between the Obama White House and the Clinton State Department than any previous White House and State Department…
Video: NBC's Andrea Mitchell and President of the Council of Foreign Relations Richard Haass discuss Sec. of State Hillary Clinton's speech on foreign affairs.
***
Sotomayor, Day 4: Today on Capitol Hill, senators will continue their second round of questions, and then we’ll hear from outside witnesses. Those who will testify in favor of Sotomayor include New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, New York D.A. Robert Morgenthau, former Major League Baseball pitcher David Cone, and New York Democratic Reps. Nydia Velazquez and Jose Serrano. Those will testify against her include New Haven firefighter Frank Ricci, Charmaine Yoest of Americans United for Life, and former National Rifle Association President Sandy Froman.
Video: As firefighters in a controversial race-bias case determined by Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor speak out, Capitol Hill hearings on her confirmation continue. NBC's Pete Williams reports.
***
Naming names: Remember that commission to investigate the causes of the financial crisis? Well yesterday, Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi announced their six picks to sit on the 10-member Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. The six: former California state Treasurer Phil Angelides (who will serve as chairman), Brooksley Born, (chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission during the Clinton years), John W. Thompson (chairman of Symantec), former Florida Sen. Bob Graham, Heather Murren (a retired Merrill Lynch director, and Byron Georgiou (a Las Vegas businessman and attorney). Republican leaders appointed Keith Hennessey (former National Economic Council director), Douglas Holtz-Eakin (former CBO director and McCain economic adviser), and Peter Wallison (of the conservative American Enterprise Institute).
*** Obama and the NAACP: Finally, in addition to his health-care meetings and his campaigning in New Jersey, President Obama will speak at the NAACP’s convention in New York City tonight. White House aides tell First Read that the speech will be similar to the one he gave to the group last year. It will have a LOT on education policy, some personal responsibility talk, and a plea to young blacks not to denigrate education. Also expect a reference or two to athletes and musicians.
Countdown to Palin Stepping Down: 10 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 110 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 474 days
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