2012 watch: Romney up in poll and $

Posted: Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:16 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2012

From NBC's Mark Murray and Matthew Samuels
About a thousand days until the first 2012 primary contests -- yes, we know that's a LONG way from now -- a new Gallup poll shows Mitt Romney

narrowly leading the potential Republican field. He gets the backing of 26% Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, followed by Sarah Palin at 21%, Mike Huckabee at 19%, Newt Gingrich at 14%, Tim Pawlenty at 3%, and Haley Barbour at 2%.

Also, Romney's political action committee, Free and Strong America PAC, today reported raising $1.6 million in the first six months of this year. It also has dished out some $36,000 to federal GOP candidates and an additional $27,000 to state candidates.

Video: Morning Meeting’s Dylan Ratigan and MSNBC’s Contessa Brewer discuss Palin’s political ambitions with a panel that includes former N.Y. Gov. Eliot Spitzer.

By comparison, Palin's political action committee, SarahPAC, raked in $733,000 during that same time period and handed out just two contributions -- $5,000 each to Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and John McCain.

Strikingly, as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver notes, 60% of the donations to SarahPAC came in the form of contributions less than $200. "That is a very high percentage -- higher than for any of the '08 presidential candidates but for Ron Paul," Silver writes. "You don't wind up with a number like that unless two things are happening: you are raising a lot of money from small donors and you specifically are not raising a lot of money from large, establishment donors. That, in a nutshell, is Palin's story as she starts to compete against the GOP primary field."

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Romney will do whatever it takes to keep Palin out of the 2012 race. Are his supporters behind the recent spate of ethics complaints against Palin?

http://www.political-buzz.com/

matt (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:30 PM)

It's going to be great to have a President that understands how the business world works, how jobs are are created, and how the global economy functions. Romney will make a great President!

ML - MN (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:30 PM)

I know Ron Paul is fairly old, but why wouldn't they have put his name on this potential candidate poll? I believe he was the last one to drop out in the previous election and had decent financial contributions to his campaign, as said above most below 200 dollars. Four of the six on the poll weren't evening candidates for President during the last election.

I know I won't be voting for any one who supports the current egregious foreign policy that America has. (including Obama if he doesn't stop the escalation in the middle east)

Sa Co (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:32 PM)

I love politics . . . I really do . . . but it is just TOO EARLY for this to mean anything at all.

From previous post:

Jonathan,

I'm open to the health co-op idea, but I don't really know alot about it.

My primary concern would be that if we leave it on a state level, the patchwork nature of this approach coupled with the efforts of some states to weaken/sabotage the co-ops would ultimately make it ineffective.

But hey, like you said, if the insurance companies are AGAINST it, it's worth a look! lol

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"Nashville_fan: Well, it was a little long, but I kind of like it!

I'm sure you did. "
- Kelsey Evans, Tn
===================================
lol

I guess I set myself up for that one, huh? :)

Nashville_fan (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:32 PM)

It's a hard rains a-gonna fall in 2010.

Moon Dawg (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:33 PM)

After listening to Obama read teleprompter prompted speeches for four years, America will be ready for something different like Romney.

Oh and about Romney being "rich". He's rich because unlike Obama, he knows what he's doing. Sure Obama has few bucks too, for writing books about HIMSELF. Romney is rich because he's helped others be successful, something Obama has never done.

Carole Lee, Ohio (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:35 PM)

Putting Palin in a nutshell made me laugh. No doubt she has the ability to charm her base. She does not have the mental fortitude to run a national campaign and win global support.

Mittens is a joke. The base would run so far from him he would only win moderates and very few independents. just my opinion.

Clara Kansas City, MO (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:37 PM)

Romney and Palin wouldn't be a bad choice in 2012.
Palin can deliver but Romney has to rev it up a few decibals. He's a little too quiet but knows the game and has the bucks.

These two also have to compare Obama to
"What's wrong with America" and stay at it.
By then he should have us all begging on the corner for bucks. I know many people are living in campgrounds.

Thanks Obama.

Moon Dawg (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:40 PM)

{no joe, before I forget} -

Nope, we don't want ARod. He's all yours.

I'm stuck on the Halladay watch myself. If the NYY are able to get him, the NYY chances in October increase dramatically, in my humble opinion.

Is Mitt running for President? Again? Didn't Huckabee beat him?

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:44 PM)

romney will be the only candidate to stand a chance. at least he's not mccain.I do think the Mormon thing will haunt him with evangelicals however. obama could have made a republican win in 2010 and 2012 impossible by alloting stimulus checks(not the joke bush sent out) to middle class folks.Alas, he chose to side with big oil, big banks and big credit cards(AIG and BOA).Please sir, issue an executive order rescinding the anti middle class law of 2005.

leon houston (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:46 PM)

Anna Molly (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:47 PM)

It's a shame Ron Paul isn't going to run, but he is getting older so it makes sense. Frankly if Mitt Romeny had the prinicipled stances of Ron Paul he would have been our President. It was the meek nature of Dr. Paul that I think turned alot of people off to him. And Repubs didn't like that he wasn't a war monger.

Another thing. FR put up a story regarding a National ID card last night. First I'm extremely opposed to this. I don't need a high tech drivers license. I know it sounds like I'm some fringe nut job, but this kind of thing is the first step into an Orwellian 1984.

Jonathan Flint, MI (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:55 PM)

By comparison, Palin's political action committee, SarahPAC, raked in $733,000 during that same time period and handed out just two contributions -- $5,000 each to Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and John McCain.
################################################

Kinda tight with the purse strings aren't we Sarah? I'll have to go along with Nate Silver. She is out to compete against GOP's primary field. The RNC created their own monster when they got her out of Alaska.

To Debate BoBo the LAIR:
The President’s economic advisors predicted that unemployment would rise to 9 percent by 2010 if Congress did not pass the stimulus bill, but that with the stimulus unemployment would stay below 8 percentage points.
BoBo the LAIR
#########################
Hon read much? I didn’t think so…I believe the prediction was 10.1% and there was “no” such mentioning of simulus “employment” staying below 8%, this is how lies start. By people like you. You never post fact, it’s always rheteoric.

Where did you get the term "stimulus employment"? Never mind...I know.

Anita, Birmingham, Alabama (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:56 PM)

As an independant voter I can assure you I will NEVER vote for any of the above mentioned want-a-be presidents. I have already done enough research to know that none of them are up to the job.

The Grand Ole Party needs a complete makeover. After watching Senator Sessions & the other republicians in the Sotomayor hearings I am appalled that these self centered, self absored, self serving, narcissistic men who have NO CLUE have the power over this lady. I am in the learning process regarding her myself. But in my opinion she appears to be a class act. How she kept from laughing at these ignorant men is beyond me. YIKES and these people are making policies that we "Americans" have to live with.

Maybe there should be a term limit on Congress. These ole farts get in power and they forget what it is live to be an average "American". I am an average "American" and am still working at the age of 73 because I cannot afford to retire. Not a one of them would be able to survive in my circumstances. I like my job as a Software Support Rep & trainer but one of the days it would be nice to kick back & see parts of the US that I have not been able to visit.

gporter, Seattle, Wash. (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:00 PM)

Be prepared for them both to be running for president in 2012. Romney should have a better shot at it if it were only him and Palin. Palin does have the solid social conservative support, but that means the unthinking base would have a huge say in the nomination.

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:03 PM)

Sarah's got a problem...(I know, Captain Obvious strikes again, right?)

Here it is: Sarah needs to stay out in front of the public consciousness, in order to remain viable for future political office. She was unable to do so in Alaska, so she kicked that job (and her constituents) to the curb. She doesn't want to actually WORK in public service to build up her ridiculously shallow resume; so I guess she could keep having people ghost-write oil-shilling blather for her in various newspapers. That tactic, however, won't get the job done on the scale she seems to envision for herself.

Right now, the only way she gets the level of press she craves is by taking the gossipy talk-show route. That further diminishes whatever "credibility" she may still possess. She may keep the back-and-forth mudslinging with Levi going as a way to keep her name in the press; but the levels of Sarah-fatigue will be enormous once the rest of the GOP field starts to get serious about campaigning. The mere mention of her name in the fall will likely result in the eye-rolling dismissiveness the public is currently heaping on Jon&Kate.

Suburban Mom paying attention, IL (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:03 PM)

Romney is the ONLY Republican who hasn't been caught in a SEX SCANDAL or Charging tax payers for Living in her own House

That's setting the bar high for Republicans:

Did you have sex with one of your campaign workers ?
How about some Argentine floozy ??
Do you solicit in Men's rooms ?
Have you ever served Divorce papers on your ex while she was recovering from surgery

SHOOT !!
YOU BE DA MAN !!
LEAD THE REPUBLICANS !!

Did you order any assassinations ?
Did you LIE about WMDs ??

YOU'RE A STATESMAN !!

Did you CHANGE your mind about Gay rights or Abortion ??
Did you change your name from Willard to Mitt ??

Uhhhhhhhhhhh ....

We'll get back to you

MSierra, SF (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:14 PM)

who cares and who's scared by this time next year aill we be on the floor for President Obama to have a extra term.

Ivoted (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:23 PM)

Romney is a moron, I mean mormon...the rightwingnut christian crusaders in the reprehensible party will never vote for him...not to mention 50% of the rest of America...maybe you could dream of a palin-romney ticket

Rick, NC (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:29 PM)

Giving money to Sarah Palin is about as useful as setting it on fire... and definitely a lot worse for the environment.

Peter M, Westport, CT (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:29 PM)

HOW SWEET IT IS! The most moderately passable GOP is Pawlenty at 3%. It just proves that their base is swinking. Please nominate, you idiots, Gingrich and/or Palin. Romney has a problem w/ you so-called holier than thou theograts/conservatives as you refuse to accept Momonism. It's Carter and Kennedy pre 1980 convention. LOVE IT! Can you say landslide.

Juan,Ft Lauderdale,fl (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:33 PM)

No one even knows if Palin has any desire or plans to run in 2012. So why don't we quit the speculation? Oh, that's right, liberals just can't stop talking about her.

Romney 2012 (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:46 PM)

Sometimes I wish we lived in a parallel universe with McCain/Palin running the country and with the GOP leaders(?)(OMG) and the Congress - Grassley, Cantor, etc.,we have today. Where, oh where would we be? What a nightmare! All the rich would be taking advantage of their tax breaks and folks like me would be out of money, no healthcare, on the streets.. (hardworking Middle Americans) would be dying by the roadside. Lord, please have mercy!

JJ Young, Cary, NC (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:48 PM)

MSIERRA, how quickly you forgot about Bill CLinton and John Edwards. Think before you write. Dems are sleazy also.

cindy, las vegas, nv (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:54 PM)

As usual establishment tools like Gallup and MSNBC are SCARED TO DEATH of including Ron Paul in their polls.

How else can you explain leaving out the man who out raised all the big name candidates they tried to coronate for the '08 GOP nomination?

Ron Paul 2012!

John Doe, Seattle, Wash (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 2:01 PM)

Yes,when the country doesn't change to the hope of America people dream,they have the right to turn away and look for the real leader.America are going to see their real leader(Mitt)that why poll after poll Mitt is the front runner,it is true and fair for all America people.the first of all, America really need some one come to turn around the economy now,because America can't patient for starve any more,they need to have a better life.Mitt is kind of America need now,because he turned around the companies,the Olympic,and the Ma,so he can turn around the country,please take the right man for the right job,don't repeat same mistake and take the wrong man for the wrong job any more.Gook luck Mitt.

Ron,Sacramento,Ca (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 2:16 PM)

Romney and Palin wouldn't be a bad choice in 2012.
Palin can deliver but Romney has to rev it up a few decibals. He's a little too quiet but knows the game and has the bucks.

Moon Dawg (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:40 PM)
--------
I hope Romney does win the nomination. He will never win a national election though due to his religion. There are too many of the fundamentalist righties who would never vote for a non-Christian. So I do feel that he and Palin would make a great time. I'm hoping for it.

Sharon IL (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 2:30 PM)

Juan in Lauderdale

Did you come over to America on a boat from Cuba in 1980? I remember seeing them cross from Key West.

I like Lauderdale. Tough to get this one posted.

Bad Chihuahua (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 2:30 PM)

What should be troubling to the GOP is that no one reaches even 30% in popularity. Of course, Obama trailed Clinton by over 20 percentage points back in August of 2007. I will be curious to see what Republican will come out of nowhere, if any, and lead the pack in 2012. I don't think that person is even in these early poll numbers as of yet.

Barbara - Fort Lauderdale, FL (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 3:03 PM)

Wow. Just Wow. That even after being a quitter, thinking Africa is a country, saying the U.S. has a "dept. of law", thinking living in Alaska can protect the U.S. from Russia, getting saved by a rubber chicken man in her pentecostal church, lying about her position on cap and trade, calling herself an "energy expert", taking 6 years and 4 different schools to get a bachelor's degree in journalism, improper use of grammar in both speech and written words, parading her children across stages around the country for months, saying we need more handicapped babies in the world, promoting abstinence while her teenage daughter's boyfriend was living in her home, causing people to scream "off with his head" and "kill him" at campaign rallies, (PHEW!) republicans STILL think this woman should be included on the list of possible presidential nominees AND are sending them their money to do so. Wow. Just Wow!

Lisa B in FL (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 3:07 PM)

There it is! My dream ticket. I have to ad-Mitt ... everything else is Palin by comparison.

Given the caption of this thread and tone of recent GOP political news, the only strategic question remaining is position ... who's on top?

Of the ticket, I mean. Why, what were YOU thinking?

Anna Molly (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 12:47 PM)
__________

Need I remind you that, in 2006, Giuliani was ahead of Hillary in the presidential poll?

How did that work out for either of them?

But, by all means, continue to believe that the polls of today will be the same as the election results in 2010. After all, the polls three years in advance always provide the winner, don't they?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAAAHHAHAHA (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 4:19 PM)

No one even knows if Palin has any desire or plans to run in 2012. So why don't we quit the speculation? Oh, that's right, liberals just can't stop talking about her.
Romney 2012 (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 1:46 PM)
______________

Oh, and I so sure her name hasn't come up ONCE on Limbaugh or Hannity right? No, conservatives aren't talking about her at all, are they?

Never mind that the article you are posting under is an article about *all* the potential GOP candidates. I suppose if her name had been left out of this list, you would have complained that they left her off on purpose, right?

I love the smell of GOP hypocrisy in the morning! (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 4:23 PM)

I know Ron Paul is fairly old, but why wouldn't they have put his name on this potential candidate poll?

Sa So
-------------------------------------------------

Ron Paul speaks too much truth. Neither party nor the media is ready for him. He would end our fiat money systmem and nation building and make us live within our means. They dont want that.

Brandon, Fort Bliss, TX (Sent Thursday, July 16, 2009 4:29 PM)

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=1998481