August 2009 - Posts
From NBC's Mark Murray and Ali Weinberg Bob McDonnell said he repudiated some of the words he wrote in his now-controversial 1989 Regent University graduate thesis -- including writing that feminism was an enemy to the traditional family and criticizing contraception for unmarried couples.
"Since 1989, my views on a number of things have changed," he told reporters on the call. "I am fully supportive of women working in the workplace. My wife works, my daughters work."
He also said on the call that he "fully" supports "equal pay for men and women," and said he would "do nothing" to change the state's laws on contraception.
Although admitting that his views have changed, McDonnell took issue with opponent Creigh Deeds' campaign in raising his 1989 thesis as a campaign issue. He said Deeds "continues to focus on divisive issues," as well as "former presidents, former governors and decades-old term papers," while McDonnell is focusing on issues like jobs, transportation, and energy.
"I think it's unfortunate, but not completely surprising, ... that he would turn to the divisive social issues to generate" enthusiasm for a campaign that's currently trailing in the polls.
And McDonnell said he was insulted that Deeds doesn't think he supports working women -- several times citing his daughter who served in Iraq. "I am insulted by Sen. Deeds that I somehow don’t support working women or women in the workplace."
Deeds senior adviser Mo Elleithee issued this response to McDonnell's conference call: "Despite Bob McDonnell’s stunning repudiation of his own agenda and 20 year legislative record, he still hasn’t answered the simple questions that were posed to him repeatedly. What positions has he changed his mind about, when did he change them, and why?"
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From NBC's Courtney Kube and Jim Miklaszewski
As of this afternoon, 51 American servicemembers have been killed in Afghanistan this month. That breaks the previous record set only last month when 45 Americans were killed in July.
With four months to go, this is also already a record year for American casualties in Afghanistan -- 182 U.S. servicemembers have been killed so far this year, compared to last year's 155.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In addition to the Corzine ad we wrote about earlier today, the AFL-CIO is dropping some really tough mailers against Christie, one of which shows a house with the door broken into with the phrase: "Don't let Christie take everything you've worked hard for."
The other shows a meat cleaver that's been dropped on a cutting board. The headline: "Christie's cuts." It accuses Christie of wanting to cut jobs, health care and pensions.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick set a date of Jan. 19th for the special election to replace the late Sen. Ted Kennedy .
He also urged that the state legislature change the law to allow the governor to create a temporary appointee until that special election.
Also, Patrick said he had spoken with Vicki Kennedy , Ted Kennedy's widow, and that she is not interested in being her husband's replacement.
And mark your calendars, On Sept. 9th, a joint Massachusetts legislative committee will consider the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's request that the state change its law and appoint a senator before a potential special election to replace him. The Boston Globe : "The House and Senate chairmen of the Joint Committee on Election Laws announced today they have moved the hearing date from early October to Sept. 9. The House and Senate, which are in summer recess, do not return in full formal session until next week. The bill could come to the floor of both the House and Senate within days after the hearing."
From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube Robert Gates is on the road today in Texas, and said he hasn't seen the report by Gen. Stanley McChrystal on Afghanistan -- but will see it in the next day or two.
Over the past few months, McChrystal has pretty much laid out what he thinks needs to be done in Afghanistan, but Gates said he had a couple additional questions he wanted the general to answer.
Strategy assessment
Casualties
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Chris Christie 's undisclosed loan to a subordinate as well as the issue over those traffic tickets .
Now, the Corzine campaign looks to capitalize on those with a broadcast and cable TV buy in Philadelphia and New York. The ad is called "Required."
"We are going every day from now until the election to explain to NJ residents the very clear choice between candidates," Corzine adviser Sean Darcy tells First Read. "There is a lot of work to be done, but we certainly intend to explain in great detail the significant accomplishments Governor Corzine has, while also letting voters know what a vote for either candidate means for the state's long-term future."
And in case you're wondering (as we were) if the Corzine campaign deliberately used the most unflattering photos of Christie, Darcy said, "We didn't go out of our way for any particular footage. The shots used are pretty standard with regard to Christie's appearance. We are generally barred from going into his open public events, so we have to make do with what we get outside."
From NBC's Mark Murray Deeds campaign has pounced on yesterday's front-page Washington Post story on Bob McDonnell's 1989 graduate thesis at Pat Robertson's Regent University -- which called feminism an enemy to the traditional family; said government policy should benefit married couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals, or fornicators”; and criticized a Supreme Court ruling legalizing contraception for unmarried couples.
In a conference call with reporters, Deeds strategist Mo Elleithee called the thesis "devastating," arguing that it had the potential to change the dynamics of a race that McDonnell is currently leading according to polls. "It shows just how out of the mainstream he is," Elleithee said. "He is out of touch with most Virginians."
Asked how McDonnell's thesis, which he wrote when he was 34, was any different from Jim Webb's (D) controversial writings about women -- which became fodder during the 2006 Webb-Allen Senate race -- Elleithee responded that the thesis turned out to serve as a "blueprint" for how McDonnell governed in Virginia as a state legislator.
Indeed, the Deeds camp said McDonnell opposed child care in Virginia legislature; he opposed pay-equity laws; and he sponsored or co-sponsored numerous pieces of legislation restricting abortion rights.
"This paper laid out, very specifically, his vision for the role of government," Elleithee said. "This is who Bob McDonnell is. This is how he has governed."
The McDonnell camp says it will be holding its own conference call at 3:00 pm ET.
From NBC's Mark Murray Bob McDonnell's (R) graduate thesis at Pat Robertson's Regent University has become political fodder in Virginia's gubernatorial contest.
Now, courtesy of CBN's David Brody , we learn that Pat Robertson, 79, underwent successful heart surgery.
"The Christian Broadcasting Network (CBN) announced today that its founder and Chairman, Pat Robertson, has returned home after extensive heart surgery at FirstHealth Moore Regional Hospital in Pinehurst, NC. Mr. Robertson has suffered a condition known as atrial fibrillation, an often-debilitating heart disorder involving shortness of breath and weakness affecting an estimated five million Americans... Robertson said, 'Only the prayers of thousands of believing people kept me on this earth. As it is, I anticipate many more years of creative service in the ministry I founded (CBN), as well as Regent University and other endeavors devoted to the service of mankind. I cannot praise enough the dedication and professionalism of Dr. Andy Kiser and his staff who removed this growth from my continuously beating heart.”
CBN also notes that Robertson is expected to return to hosting his "700 Club" in weeks.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Back to health care: Anyone who has followed American politics over the past two years knows that Barack Obama has faced his fair share of challenges. Hillary Clinton. Jeremiah Wright. John McCain. Sarah Palin. Bill Ayers. Even the tax issues that helped sink his original HHS pick, Tom Daschle. And almost every time, he defeated or side-stepped those political dragons through his oratory and communication skills. But as he returns to Washington (although remains on a working vacation this week) and after Ted Kennedy was laid to rest on Saturday, President Obama has found so far that his communication skills -- just how many press conferences and media avails did he have this summer? -- haven’t really worked on the tricky issue of health-care reform. His poll numbers have declined; House Blue Dog Democrats are hesitant; most Republicans aren’t willing to cut any kind of deal; liberals have made the politically difficult public option the end-all, be-all of reform; and Max Baucus’ Senate Finance Committee still hasn’t produced a bill. In short, it was a brutal summer for the president; no wonder this week is still being called a "vacation" week by the White House.
*** Getting something done: But health care’s fate will be decided this fall. And the smart C.W. is that reform will pass this year, although what that reform entails is anyone’s guess. As John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times writes, “…President Obama still has stronger prospects for achieving his health policy goals than surface impressions of the congressional recess indicate. He lags behind his own timetable for action, but remains ahead of presidential predecessors who pursued the same objective… ‘They’ll get something done,’ predicted former Senator John B. Breaux of Louisiana, a Democrat… ‘It’ll be a major step.’” Yet getting something done increasingly looks like it will happen via reconciliation, which would require a simple majority in the Senate versus a filibuster-proof majority. And it also looks like it will get done without much help from Republicans. Chuck Grassley’s recent comments, as well as Mike Enzi’s weekend GOP radio address, really don’t suggest that these guys are negotiating in good faith. But ask yourself this question: Do voters ever remember HOW legislation is passed, or do they simply remember if policy is enacted or NOT enacted?
*** Filling Kennedy’s seat: Getting something done also might require Democrats to get that 60th Senate vote back -- to make up for any Democratic defections. So filling Kennedy’s seat quickly has become a priority for Democrats. As we pointed out last week , with Massachusetts Democrats holding nearly 90% of the House and Senate seats in its Legislature, they can certainly change the state’s succession law. Here’s one other development: Chris Dodd, Kennedy’s closest friend in the Senate, is already talking up the possibility of Vicki Kennedy, who has earlier suggested that she isn’t interested. “Whatever Vicki wants to do, I’m in her corner,” Dodd said on Sunday. “She brings talent and ability to it, and to fill that spot I think is something the people of Massachusetts would welcome. We could certainly use her in the Senate.”
*** Naming names: So expect some public maneuverings this week. Whatever is changed in the Massachusetts law, it will ONLY affect the ability of the governor to appoint an INTERIM senator; the special election process will still happen in early January 2010. While many in Washington are pondering a Kennedy getting in (either Vicki or Joe), keep an eye on Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley. She could become the Emily's List candidate and raise a slew of money fast and could end up being – in a jumbled primary -- the frontrunner, unless Vicki decides to run. By the way, should the last Kennedy of her generation -- Jean Kennedy Smith -- be the no-brainer idea for an interim?
*** Turning to Afghanistan: Of course, there are TWO items on the president's to-do list in September which could have a BIG impact on the trajectory of his presidency: 1) figuring out a legislative path to victory on health care and 2) deciding how many -- if any -- troops to send to Afghanistan. Part of the report is now in, per the BBC : "The report has yet not been published, but sources say Gen McChrystal sees protecting the Afghan people against the Taliban as the top priority. The report does not carry a direct call for increasing troop numbers. ‘The situation in Afghanistan is serious, but success is achievable and demands a revised implementation strategy, commitment and resolve, and increased unity of effort,’ Gen McChrystal said in the assessment. Copies of the document have been sent to Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen and US Defence Secretary Robert Gates." Interestingly, how he proceeds on both health care and Afghanistan is as much a test of the loyalty of the Democratic base as it is about garnering the approval of the middle.
*** What about Bob? One of the ironies of the Creigh Deeds-Bob McDonnell gubernatorial contest in Virginia is how it’s been the Democrat talking about social issues like abortion, while the Republican has been mostly silent -- which has surprised those who have followed McDonnell’s career. But that might now change after Sunday’s Washington Post reported on McDonnell’s 1989 graduate thesis at Pat Robertson’s Regent University, in which he called feminism an enemy to the traditional family; said government policy should benefit married couples over "cohabitators, homosexuals, or fornicators”; and described a Supreme Court ruling legalizing contraception for unmarried couples as “illogical.” The Deeds folks believe that highlighting McDonnell’s social issues will help them with the two groups that McDonnell is doing fairly well with: independents and Northern Virginia voters.
*** How does McDonnell respond? McDonnell had to know this was coming, right? He gave this statement to the Post: "Virginians will judge me on my 18-year record as a legislator and Attorney General and the specific plans I have laid out for our future -- not on a decades-old academic paper I wrote as a student during the Reagan era and haven't thought about in years." More: "Like everybody, my views on many issues have changed as I have gotten older." Back in 2005, Tim Kaine knew the Republicans were going to seize on his past opposition to the death penalty. How he responded to the attack -- by invoking his Catholic faith -- helped him win that gubernatorial contest. Make no mistake, this Post story is going to polarize the electorate and fire up both bases, which is precisely what the Deeds camp needs in a state Obama won by seven percentage points. And while McDonnell's path to victory is about cutting Deeds' likely advantages in Northern Virginia, this story -- depending on how Deeds USES it -- is an opportunity for him to consolidate his base up North. But don't underestimate the ability of this story to fire up McDonnell's base. And it's a tradition in Virginia for the Washington Post to become a bogeyman, and this story could bring about some intense Post-bashing by conservatives.
*** The danger of being the favorite: With this story, and with Jon Corzine having perhaps his two best weeks (as revelations about Chris Christie’s loans and traffic tickets have surfaced), we are beginning to see the prospect that Democrats could very well win one of these two gubernatorial races this year -- which would be a significant blow to Republicans who would love to sweep the two blue state races and use it as a recruiting and fundraising tool for 2010. Don’t get us wrong: The GOP should still be considered favored to win both contests. But one of the pitfalls of being the favorite is that a loss becomes MUCH more painful than if you started out as the underdog. Election Day 2009, by the way, is just a little more than two months from now…
*** Another controversial appointment: Charlie Crist’s decision on Friday to appoint his former chief of staff and campaign manager, George LeMieux, to fill Mel Martinez’s Senate seat wasn’t that surprising given that Crist is running for that very seat next year. Nevertheless, the move has allowed Democrats and primary opponent Marco Rubio to criticize the appointment as cronyism. Of course, as we’ve witnessed over the past several months, Democrats have had their fair share of controversial Senate appointments, too -- Roland Burris in Illinois, Michael Bennet in Colorado (who might now receive a primary challenge from Andrew Romanoff), Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, and Ted Kaufman in Delaware (which might be the most analogous appointment to the LeMieux’s and which makes Democratic attacks on Crist a bit more disingenuous).
*** Wrangling over Rangel: Also last week, the press reported that powerful House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charlie Rangel (D) failed to disclose up to $500,000 in assets in 2007. Sorry, but how do you defend this? While she will have A LOT on her plate when Congress comes back next week, how Nancy Pelosi deals with Rangel and these revelations will be a real test for the Democratic speaker. Can Rangel stay a credible player in the health-care debate with this drip-drip hanging over his head?
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 64 days
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On FOX yesterday, Cheney said of Attorney General Holder's decision to open up investigations into some CIA detainee abuses, "I think it's a terrible decision. President Obama made the announcement some weeks ago that this would not happen, that his administration would not go back and look at or try to prosecute CIA personnel. ... We had a track record now of eight years of defending the nation against any further mass casualty attacks from al Qaeda," Cheney said. "The approach of the Obama administration should be to come to those people who were involved in that policy and say, 'How did you do it? What were the keys to keeping this country safe over that period of time?'"
The New York Times : “Mr. Cheney described the inquiry as an ‘intensely partisan, politicized look back at the prior administration’ intended to placate the left wing of the Democratic Party. ‘It’s clearly a political move,’ he said. ‘I mean, there’s no other rationale for why they’re doing this.’”
The AP previews Obama's fall lineup. "Back from his first presidential vacation, a break truncated by the death and remembrance of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and the nomination of the Federal Reserve chief to a new term, Obama settles back into the Oval Office well aware his approval ratings have fallen. He now must spend heavily from that shrinking fund of political capital -- with a highly uncertain outcome -- if his vision of a health care overhaul is to emerge from Congress."
Good news from the CBO? “Medicare beneficiaries would often have to pay higher premiums for prescription drug coverage, but many would see their total drug spending decline, so they would save money as a result of health legislation moving through the House, the Congressional Budget Office said in a recent report,” the New York Times says.
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe writes, "With Massachusetts having paid its final respects to Senator Edward M. Kennedy, the politics of succession begins in earnest this week -- candidates will emerge, a race will take shape, and the Kennedy clan will have to reveal whether it wants to keep the seat in the family. All eyes now are on Joseph P. Kennedy II, the former US representative, with family members and political allies expecting him to make a decision very shortly on whether to enter the Democratic primary. No other Kennedy of his generation with the political stature to step into the role has signaled interest in it, according to Democratic insiders and people close to the family. And Victoria Reggie Kennedy, the senator’s widow, who many expected would be a likely candidate, so far has indicated she is not interested in succeeding her husband, those close her have said."
More: "Joe Kennedy’s decision is likely to determine the plans of the dean of the Massachusetts congressional delegation, US Representative Edward J. Markey, who is telling associates he is seriously considering running, and US Representative Michael Capuano, a Somerville Democrat who is also thinking of joining the primary race. Both are Kennedy loyalists and would not run against a member of the family, according to people familiar with their thinking, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal political calculations." Other possibilities: Attorney General Martha Coakley, Rep. Stephen F. Lynch, Edward Kennedy Jr. Republicans: Kerry Healey, state Sen. Scott Brown, and former U.S. attorney Michael Sullivan.
"Senators Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah, and Chris Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, said on CNN’s 'State of the Union' that they could support Kennedy’s widow, Victoria Reggie Kennedy, as an interim senator if Massachusetts lawmakers allow a temporary appointment before a special election."
"At the graveside service at Arlington National Cemetery for Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Theodore Cardinal McCarrick, archbishop emeritus of Washington, D.C. and a family friend, read portions of the letter that President Obama delivered on Kennedy's behalf to the Pope last month and portions of the pope's reply."
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Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. John McCain will travel to Kansas City today for a health-care discussion at Children’s Mercy Hospital. The event is hosted by Sen. Kit Bond. This will be the second McConnell-McCain health-reform event after visiting Houston’s M.D. Anderson earlier this summer with Sen. John Cornyn. Later this week, McConnell and McCain will also travel to North Carolina and Florida.
Al Hunt writes about Tim Pawlenty. “He doesn’t excite Republican passions like Sarah Palin, or bring the intellectual range of Newt Gingrich, the down-home humor of Mike Huckabee or the resources of Mitt Romney. He also brings none of their baggage, has a consistently conservative record, presents his views in a less-confrontational and more measured way, and has succeeded in a Democratic state.”
"Former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said Monday people "are hyperventilating" about his assertion that politics played a role in talk of raising the terror alert before the 2004 elections. 'A consensus was reached. We didn't go up. The process worked,' Ridge said in an interview on ABC's 'Good Morning America.' The former Pennsylvania governor, however, did not take back the statement in his new book, 'The Test of Our Times: America Under Siege,' that he worried at the time that politics was a consideration in discussions among high-level officials about whether to raise the color-coded terror alert to a higher level. He acknowledged there was a lively debate about it, but repeated that it was not done, and thus not an issue."
FLORIDA: Charlie Crist has decided to appoint his former chief of staff, George LeMieux, to replace Sen. Mel Martinez in the U.S. Senate. "At 40 years old LeMieux will become the youngest Senator in the chamber when he is sworn in… A Crist loyalist, LeMieux ran the governor’s 2006 campaign and emerged last week as a top contender for the appointment out of a field that eventually included 10 names."
IDAHO: The New York Daily News : "Rex Rammell, a long-shot candidate slated to run against incumbent C.L. 'Butch' Otter in the May 2010 GOP primary [in Idaho], made the comment at a Republican rally Tuesday in Twin Falls where talk turned to the state's planned wolf hunt, for which hunters must purchase an $11.50 wolf tag. The hunt is due to begin on Tuesday. When an audience member shouted a question about 'Obama tags,' Rammell responded, 'The Obama tags? We'd buy some of those.'" He told AP: "What I would say to all my Democrat Idahoans: Take a deep breath and relax," he said. "We're not going to go out and hunt Obama." He also told the Times-News newspaper, "I would never support him being assassinated."
NEW JERSEY: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will campaign for New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie next week. Pawlenty, who is thought to be considering running for president in 2012, said he will base his decision in part on whether “the message that I’m conveying, both here and nationally, [is] making a difference.”
SOUTH CAROLINA: To mark 500 days until the term for embattled Gov. Mark Sanford (R), Dwight Drake -- one of the Democrats running for South Carolina governor in 2010 -- has produced a Web video entitled, “(500) Days of Sanford,” a spoof of the indie film “(500) Days of Summer.”
VIRGINIA: Twenty years after Republican gubernatorial nominee wrote a thesis on “harmful social impact of working women, feminists and nontraditional families” and other social issues, the paper has resurfaced as a political rallying point for both McDonnell’s supporters and opponents. In the thesis, McDonnell wrote, “Every level of government should statutorily and procedurally prefer married couples over cohabitators, homosexuals or fornicators. The cost of sin should fall on the sinner, not the taxpayer.” Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds called the paper “a window into archconservative values that belie the moderate image McDonnell has tried to portray.” Gary C. Byler, the Republican chairman of a Virginia congressional district, said, “if this is the best they can come up with it just shows how desperate the Democrats are.” Larry Sabato, political science director at the University of Virginia, said the impact of the thesis on both nominees’ campaigns is still unclear. “It’s a piece of the mosaic that is created prior to Election Day,” Sabato said. “The only question is how big a piece, and that’s up to the candidates.”
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Is the New Jersey gubernatorial race getting tighter? It is, according to a new Democratic poll. The new survey -- conducted for
Stan Greenberg's and
James Carville's Democracy Corps -- found that Gov.
Jon Corzine (D) now trails his Republican challenger
Chris Christie by two points, 43%-41%, compared with Christie's five-point lead two weeks ago. http://www.gqrr.com/index.php?ID=2383
Meanwhile, the ad war is picking up steam in Virginia. Here is
Creigh Deeds' (D) TV ad that plays the Bush card against
Bob McDonnell (R).
And here is an advertisement the Republican Governors Association is running against Deeds.
From NBC's Mark Murray Charlie Crist (R) has chosen George LeMieux to fill Mel Martinez's (R) Senate seat.
The pick of LeMieux -- who had formerly served as Crist's campaign manager in 2006 and then Crist's chief of staff -- is the clearest sign yet that this person would be a caretaker of the Senate seat, which Crist is running for next year.
Crist is competing in a GOP primary against Marco Rubio . Florida Rep. Kendrick Meek is running on the Democratic side.
Martinez, who announced that he was stepping down from his Senate seat a few weeks ago, just released this statement: "I congratulate George LeMieux for being appointed by the governor to fill the remainder of my term. George is bright, capable, and an accomplished
*** UPDATE ***
Here's this statement from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee: "Charlie Crist came as close as he could to appointing himself to this position. At a time when so many Floridians are unemployed, and many others facing foreclosures, we have learned nothing is beyond the pale for Charlie Crist. Today marked another Charlie Crist choice that significantly impacts the state of Florida but is ultimately about promoting himself."
And here's the Florida Democratic Party: "Today, Charlie Crist decided to play political games with the public's trust by appointing George LeMieux to the U.S. Senate. This glaring example of political cronyism is the last thing Florida needed while we face these tough economic times and the Congress is tackling critical issues such as health insurance reform and global warming."
From NBC's Mark Murray AP has a story in which Republicans are praising the Obama administration's FEMA team and efforts to rebuild the Gulf Coast.
"Gov. Bobby Jindal , R-La., says Obama's team has brought a more practical and flexible approach. Many local officials offer similar reviews. Even Doug O'Dell, former President George W. Bush's recovery coordinator, says the Obama administration's "new vision" appears to be turning things around. Not too long ago, Jindal said in a telephone interview, Louisiana governors didn't have 'very many positive things' to say about the Federal Emergency Management Agency."
"But Jindal said he had a lot of respect for the current FEMA chief, Craig Fugate , and his team. 'There is a sense of momentum and a desire to get things done,' the governor said. Added O'Dell: 'I think the results are self-evident.'"
Of course, it's still REALLY early, and Team Obama has yet to deal with a real hurricane hitting the United States...
From NBC's Mark Murray Ted Kennedy today lies in repose at the John F. Kennedy Library until 3:00 pm ET. In the evening, a private memorial service will take place, and speakers will include Vice President Joe Biden ; Sens. Chris Dodd, Orrin Hatch , John Kerry and John McCain ; and Caroline Kennedy and Joseph P. Kennedy II.
On Saturday, there will be a Mass at which President Obama will speak. After that, Sen. Kennedy's body will travel to the U.S. Capitol and finally Arlington National Cemetery, where he will rest alongside brothers John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy .
The Boston Globe says that Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin has presented Gov. Deval Patrick with two dates for a special election to fill Kennedy's Senate seat -- Jan. 19 or Jan 26. "Under the schedule set by state law, a Jan. 19 election would require a Dec. 8 primary; a Jan. 26 election would mean a Dec. 15 primary." The same article notes that former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), who lost a gubernatorial bid to Patrick in '06, is considering a bid for the seat. Washington Times reports that South Carolina Republicans are gathering in Myrtle Beach this weekend to discuss the fate of embattled Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and whether to call a special impeachment session before the Legislature is scheduled to reconvene in January.
This comes as a new Insider Advantage poll finds that half of South Carolina voters want Sanford out of office, Politico writes. "Sanford is actually in a weaker position now than he was in the same poll shortly after he admitted in June to an affair with an Argentine woman, when 49.8 percent of South Carolinians thought the governor should stay, while 41.4 percent said he should resign."
We're waiting for Florida Gov. Charlie Crist to name a temporary replacement to fill Mel Martinez's Senate seat. Per news accounts, the pick is supposed to come at the end of this week.
Here are a couple of new stories emphasizing the challenges that President Obama faces with his health-care reform effort: The New York Times says that conservative Catholic bishops are speaking out against the legislation that's emerging from Capitol Hill, and Bloomberg writes that an "Obama administration plan to cut Medicare payments to heart and cancer doctors by $1.4 billion next year is generating a backlash that’s undermining the president’s health-care overhaul."
Finally, a reminder that our usual morning note (including First Thoughts, etc.) will return on Monday.
From NBC's Mark Murray Kennedy's seat until next winter's special election, they certainly have the math on their side.
Per data from the National Conference of State Legislatures, 89% of the Massachusetts Senate and House is Democratic -- 35 out of 40 senators and 143 out of 160 House members.
Talk about a supermajority...
From NBC's Betsy Cline Kathleen Sebelius said that passing health care without Sen. Ted Kennedy would "make things more difficult."
Sebelius said the nation is "appropriately consumed by the legacy of Teddy Kennedy," following a meet-and-greet with several senior citizens to promote a new report about the impact of health-care reform on Medicare recipients. She went on to say there has been "no better champion for older Americans than Sen. Kennedy."
In response to a question about the possibility of naming the health legislation after Kennedy, Sebelius said it is more important to actually pass it, though she said it would be an appropriate tribute. But she suggested to those interested in honoring his memory, "it would be best to pass health care."
Sebelius said that as a "recovering legislator" herself, Kennedy had the right mix of principles and deal-making to get things done. "He knew making progress was critically important," she said.
From NBC's Alicia Jennings President Obama during his vacation in Martha's Vineyard
Sheehan said that she's opposing Obama the same way she opposed George W. Bush . "The facade has changed but policies remain the same," she told reporters. "Integrity in our movement means we have to do same for Obama as we did for Bush."
"We're here to make the wars unpopular again," she added. "Because if we were right to oppose it under Bush, we're right to oppose it under Obama."
Sheehan continued, "While the Obamas are here on vacation, people are still dying. There's no vacation from body bags. And the families of dead soldiers will never be able to truly enjoy a vacation again.
"Just because he's better than Bush doesn't sell me, because practically everybody in the world is better than Bush."
From NBC's Mark Murray Charlie Crist and in Illinois with Mark Kirk ), while Democrats haven't (not being able to convince Lisa Madigan to run in Illinois).
But Democrats now have their man in Louisiana -- Rep. Charlie Melancon , who will take on incumbent Sen. David Vitter (R) next year. Today, Melancon made it official in a statement and video : "... I'm announcing my candidacy for the US Senate to replace David Vitter, because Louisiana deserves better. Louisiana needs a different approach in Washington, DC. More bi-partisan. More disciplined. More honest and with a whole lot more common sense."
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Bob Menendez celebrated the news in a statement. "I have every confidence that Charlie Melancon will run a strong campaign," he said. "And by next November, voters will want him serving as an independent voice for Louisiana in the United State Senate.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee countered, “Whether he’s championing President Obama’s bloated spending agenda, supporting the Democrats’ job-killing card check legislation, or voting hand-in-hand with Speaker Pelosi 93 percent of the time in 2008, Charlie Melancon has clearly demonstrated that he is not in touch with the issues that are important to the people of Louisiana."
From NBC's Mark Murray Michael Steele on the health-care debate and the role of government in health care. Listen to it here , or check out this exchange below, per NPR's blog :
STEELE: Sure there are issues in the insurance market that we could regulate a little better and that we can control better to maximize the benefits to consumers. That's something that, yeah, we can rightly reform and fix.
(Steve pounces)
STEVE: Wait a minute, wait a minute. You would trust the gov-ern-ment (Steve draws out the word for emphasis) to look into that?
STEELE: No, I'm talking about private, I'm talking about citizens, I'm talking about...
STEVE: Who is it, you said that's something that should be looked into. Who is it that should look into that?
STEELE: Well, who regulate the insurance markets?
STEVE: That would be the government.
STEELE: Wait a minute. Hold up. You're doing a wonderful little dance here and you're trying to be cute but the reality of this is very simple. I'm not saying the government doesn't have a role to play. I've never said that. The government does have a role to play, the government has a very limited role to play.
STEVE: Mr. Chairman, I respect that you feel I'm doing a dance here. (Steele laughs). I just want you to know that as a citizen I'm a little confused by the positions you take because you're giving me a very nice, nuanced position here.
STEELE: It's not nice and nuanced, I'm being very clear...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg
New Jersey Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie was ticketed in 2005 for speeding, driving an unregistered vehicle and driving without insurance. He was allowed to drive the car home, a New Jersey radio station reported yesterday.
From NBC's Mark Murray The Kennedy funeral arrangements: At noon ET today, a private family Mass (closed to the public and press) will take place in Hyannis Port, MA. An hour later, the late senator and his family will head to Boston, where Kennedy's body will lie in repose today and tomorrow at the John F. Kennedy Library and Museum (which is open to the public).
Tomorrow night, beginning at 7:00 pm, there will be a memorial service (closed to the public and press) at the Kennedy Library, where Vice President Biden and Sens. John Kerry and John McCain will speak.
On Saturday morning, a funeral Mass (closed to the press and public) will occur at Our Lady of Perpetual Help Basilica, and President Obama will speak there.
Finally, Sen. Kennedy's body will travel to Virginia, where he'll be buried alongside his brothers, John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy .
The New York Times front-pages the momentum that's growing in Massachusetts to appoint a temporary successor to Kennedy. The Legislature reconvenes after Labor Day.
The Boston Globe adds, "Some on Beacon Hill had been initially cool to the idea of allowing for an interim appointment, but Kennedy’s death Tuesday, plus personal appeals from influential voices, appear to have shifted the dynamic." AP is reporting that "New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and former high-ranking members of his administration won't be criminally charged in a federal investigation into pay-to-play allegations involving one of his large political donors."
Another Palin scheduling snafu? Organizers of an Alaska Family Council event were left scrambling after former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's office said she wouldn't be speaking at the event -- after the group had been advertising her presence. "It would be at least the fourth time in recent months that an anticipated Palin speech has fallen through after Palin and her camp disputed they had ever confirmed it. That includes the brouhaha over whether she'd speak at the annual congressional Republican fundraising dinner in Washington, D.C., this summer."
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From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Ted Kennedy 's life, as compiled by the NBC Political Unit and the AP. (As always, you can use the space in comments to add other dates of significance if you'd like):
-- Feb. 22, 1932: born youngest of nine children
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg The No. 2 official in New Jersey's U.S. Attorney's office resigned yesterday , less than two weeks after news broke that she accepted a loan from former boss and current Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie . Jon Corzine , Christie's opponent, continued to criticize the matter. "Michele Brown’s resignation today does nothing to put to rest questions about Christie’s conduct both in and outside of the U.S. attorney’s office," said Corzine press secretary Elisabeth Smith.
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From NBC's Mark Murray Ted Kennedy's passing, South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R) is going to make a statement at noon ET -- in which he'll call for Gov. Mark Sanford (R) to resign, the AP reports.
"South Carolina's lieutenant governor will ask embattled Gov. Mark Sanford to resign at a news conference Wednesday, a spokesman said. Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer will agree to stay out of next year's governor's race if Sanford steps down, an offer he first made in June after his fellow Republican admitted a yearlong affair with an Argentine woman."
From NBC's Courtney Kube Ted Kennedy will be buried at Arlington Cemetery -- date and time still TBD.
The official expects he will be buried at the John F. Kennedy gravesite, but that is also still TBD.
Any sitting or former senator is eligible for burial at Arlington Cemetery, but Kennedy's military service alone does not qualify him for burial there since he did not retire from the Armed Forces. His military service alone only qualifies him to be cremated and inurned at the Columbarium at Arlington.
Kennedy served as a Private First Class in the Army, serving from June 25, 1951 to March 27, 1953. He was honorably discharged.
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama joined politicians and organizations from across the country and around the world in hailing "Lion of the Senate" Ted Kennedy , who passed away early this morning in nearby Cape Cod at the age of 77.
Calling Kennedy an extraordinary leader, a counselor, and a friend, Obama said he was "one of most accomplished Americans ever to serve our democracy" and that the "good he did lives on."
"The outpouring of love, gratitude, and fond memories to which we've all borne witness is a testament to the way this singular figure in American history touched so many lives," the president said. "His ideas and ideals are stamped on scores of laws and reflected in millions of lives."
Marvin Nicholson, the president's trip director, woke Obama up just after 2:00 am ET to tell him Sen. Kennedy had died. The president spoke with Mrs. Kennedy about 25 minutes later.
Obama -- who was born just before Kennedy entered the Senate -- said the Kennedy name was "synonymous with the Democratic Party" and that no one in the Senate engendered greater respect or affection on both sides of aisle. "His seriousness of purpose was perpetually matched by humility, warmth, and good cheer," he said. "He could passionately battle others and do so peerlessly on the Senate floor for the causes that he held dear, and yet still maintain warm friendships across party lines."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Ted Kennedy was adored by both Democratic and Republican lawmakers -- as these statements below suggest.
Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd : "I'm not sure America has ever had a greater Senator, but I know for certain that no one has had a greater friend than I and so many others did in Ted Kennedy."
Democratic Sen. John Kerry : "We have known for some time that this day was coming, but nothing makes it easier. We have lost a great light in our lives and our politics, and it will never be the same again."
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell : "No one could have known the man without admiring the passion and vigor he poured into a truly momentous life. We send our deepest expressions of sympathy to Vicki, his children, and the entire Kennedy family."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Ted Kennedy's passing. The Boston Globe : "Senator Edward M. Kennedy, who carried aloft the torch of a Massachusetts dynasty and a liberal ideology to the citadel of Senate power, but whose personal and political failings may have prevented him from realizing the ultimate prize of the presidency, died at his home in Hyannis Port last night after a battle with brain cancer. He was 77."
The New York Times : "Mr. Kennedy had been in precarious health since he suffered a seizure in May 2008. His doctors determined the cause was a malignant glioma, a brain tumor that often carries a grim prognosis... While Mr. Kennedy was physically absent from the capital in recent months, his presence was deeply felt as Congress weighed the most sweeping revisions to America’s health care system in decades, an effort Mr. Kennedy called 'the cause of my life.'"
Video: NBC's Domenico Montanaro on MSNBC talks about how Democrats have missed Ted Kennedy's voice on health care, as well as what to watch today in politics. The Wall Street Journal : "Mr. Kennedy was embraced early on as an heir to a heroic legacy and long seen as a president-in-waiting. But his own mistakes -- especially a car crash near Chappaquiddick Island in 1969, in which a campaign aide died -- helped cost him the presidency when he sought it in 1980. In later years, episodes like the rape trial of his nephew William Kennedy Smith in 1991 gave him the reputation of an irresponsible playboy. But Mr. Kennedy never entirely lost his standing, and he rebuilt his reputation sufficiently so that when candidate Barack Obama won the senator's endorsement in the Democratic primaries last year, it was seen as a major coup and helped shift the race's dynamic."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Ted Kennedy -- a legislative lion of the Senate and brother to John F. Kennedy and Robert F. Kennedy -- passed away late last night. He was 77.
"We’ve lost the irreplaceable center of our family and joyous light in our lives, but the inspiration of his faith, optimism, and perseverance will live on in our hearts forever," his family said in a statement. "We thank everyone who gave him care and support over this last year, and everyone who stood with him for so many years in his tireless march for progress toward justice, fairness and opportunity for all. He loved this country and devoted his life to serving it. He always believed that our best days were still ahead, but it’s hard to imagine any of them without him.”
President Obama , whom Kennedy endorsed during the Democratic primaries, released his own statement, saying that he and his wife were "heartbroken" about the news. "For five decades, virtually every major piece of legislation to advance the civil rights, health and economic well being of the American people bore his name and resulted from his efforts," he said. "I valued his wise counsel in the Senate, where, regardless of the swirl of events, he always had time for a new colleague. I cherished his confidence and momentous support in my race for the Presidency. And even as he waged a valiant struggle with a mortal illness, I've profited as President from his encouragement and wisdom."
Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch , one of Kennedy's closest friends in the Senate, added: “Today America lost a great elder statesman, a committed public servant, and leader of the Senate. And today I lost a treasured friend."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro A Democratic fundraiser was arrested and charged with one count of bank fraud today.
Bloomberg reports (hat tip: conservative blog RedState ) that "Hassan Nemazee, chairman of Nemazee Capital Corp. and a fundraiser for President Obama and Hillary Clinton , was arrested on charges that he tricked Citigroup Inc. into lending him as much as $74 million using phony documents. Nemazee got the loan by telling Citibank that he held accounts with hundreds of millions of dollars which could serve as collateral, U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara said today in a statement. He used fake addresses and phone numbers to mislead the bank, prosecutors said."
Nemazee was an Obama bundler , DSCC national campaign finance chairman, John Kerry and Bill Clinton donor. He raked in more than $500,000 for candidate Obama.
One irony here: He's represented by Bracewell & Giuliani (yes, that Giuliani) attorney Marc Mukasey (of yes, that Mukasey family. He's the former Bush attorney general's son ).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Pete King 's not one to mince words.
Remember this?
Now, a fuming King tells Ben Smith over at Politico that "it's bulls---" that the Justice Department has decided to open an investigation -- however narrowly focused -- on CIA interrogation abuses.
He also called it "disgraceful" and "chided his own party for what he described as a weak response to the move...."
"It’s bulls***. It’s disgraceful. You wonder which side they’re on," King said, adding that this is a "declaration of war against the CIA, and against common sense."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Wyden-Bennett 's going nowhere, but the Club for Growth is slapping Utah Sen. Bob Bennett for thinking it. Well, trying it.
Roll Call : "Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) is taking fire from the Club for Growth in a new television ad and letter-writing campaign for his efforts to push the Healthy Americans Act... The ad, which is launching Tuesday in Utah, is part of the club’s $1.2 million campaign to 'highlight the dangers of government-run health care,' according to a release from the anti-tax group. 'Senator Bennett’s bill is a health care nightmare,' said Club for Growth President Chris Chocola. 'Rather than lowering the cost of care by increasing competition, it turns control of our health insurance system over to the government.'"
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Republican gubernatorial candidate and former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie yesterday pushed back on Gov. Jon Corzine's charge that a $46,000 loan Christie made to a former staffer "tarnishes [Christie's] credentials as an ethics reform candidate." Bill Clinton for a loophole that enabled Enron to get tax breaks before the company's collapse."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro New York Times reports.
"The inconclusive results, reported by the Independent Election Commission, were sharply at odds with claims by aides to President Karzai on Monday that he had won an overwhelming majority in the voting last Thursday. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff election would be required."
A candidate needs 50% to win outright and avoid a runoff. The country's finance minister, a Karzai appointee, earlier this week claimed Karzai had obtained a whopping 68% of the vote. Karzai got 55% in his first run and his popularity has fallen.
Af/Pak special envoy Richard C. Holbrooke told the Times, “Ten percent of the vote is in. Imagine an American election with 10 percent in. You don’t call it with 10 percent. Anyone who extrapolates at this point is less than accurate.”
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama took a break from his vacation on Tuesday to nominate Benjamin Bernanke to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
The White House said the announcement was intended to put to rest speculation about whether Bernanke, a Bush appointee who is an expert on the Great Depression, would be kept on. One official said the president wanted to keep his economic team intact as they work to ensure an economic recovery. Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel , Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers , the director of the National Economic Council, all recommended to the president that he keep Bernanke on, the official said.
"Ben approached a financial system on the verge of collapse with calm and wisdom; with bold action and outside-the-box thinking that has helped put the brakes on our economic freefall," Obama told the reporters gathered in a a high school gym here. "Almost none of the decisions that he or any of us made have been easy."
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro re-nominated Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke . He still has to go through confirmation and Banking Chairman Chris Dodd , who is one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats in the country right now, said he is prepared to give Bernanke a tough hearing .
The announcement comes on the same day as the administration released its mid-session budget review , which was delayed last month. The budget forecast showed a show smaller-than-once-thought deficit in 2009 and 2010, but a higher than estimated $9 trillion long-term deficit. stirred the predictable food fight here in Washington, splitting Democrats and Republicans. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell obtained a statement from former Vice President Dick Cheney just after midnight. Cheney used the opportunity to again question the president’s ability to keep the country safe.
"The documents released Monday clearly demonstrate that the individuals subjected to Enhanced Interrogation Techniques provided the bulk of intelligence we gained about al Qaeda,” Cheney said in the statement. “This intelligence saved lives and prevented terrorist attacks. These detainees also, according to the documents, played a role in nearly every capture of al Qaeda members and associates since 2002. The activities of the CIA in carrying out the policies of the Bush Administration were directly responsible for defeating all efforts by al Qaeda to launch further mass casualty attacks against the United States. The people involved deserve our gratitude. They do not deserve to be the targets of political investigations or prosecutions. President Obama 's decision to allow the Justice Department to investigate and possibly prosecute CIA personnel, and his decision to remove authority for interrogation from the CIA to the White House, serves as a reminder, if any were needed, of why so many Americans have doubts about this Administration's ability to be responsible for our nation's security."
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From NBC's Pete Williams Holder wants investigated are those listed today in the CIA Inspector General report -- and some others, about 10 in all.
In addition to the ones enumerated today -- involving the gun, the drill, threats to harm family members, and so on -- there are other cases that were fully redacted from the IG report.
"And they raise allegations of abuse that are much worse," the official says.
Those cases remain classified.
As a practical matter, this set of roughly 10 allegations is the universe of cases Holder wants investigated -- meaning that he has all but concluded he will not recommend that the prosecutor look at the Bush officials who conceived of the enhanced interrogation program or the Justice Department lawyers who authorized it.
From NBC’s Ali Weinberg The Democratic National Committee held a conference call today criticizing Republican National Committee Chairman
Michael Steele for his Washington Post op-ed, in which he warned today of the implications of a Democratic-led health-care reform bill being passed.
In the op-ed, Steele wrote that the Democratic proposals for health-care reform "will give seniors less power to control their own medical decisions and create government boards that would decide what treatments would or would not be funded."
To that point,
Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) said on the conference call that Steele’s op-ed was "riddled with lies" and that "the substance of this document uses false claims which have time after time been debunked."
"The Republican Party has to take responsibility for their lies and hypocrisy when it comes to seniors and health-insurance reform," she added.
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, today expressed his strong disappointment in the U.S. Attorney General's decision to name a prosecutor to investigate CIA interrogations:
I respectfully regret this decision by Attorney General Holder and fear our country will come to regret it too because an open ended criminal investigation of past CIA activity, which has already been condemned and prohibited, will have a chilling effect on the men and women agents of our intelligence community whose uninhibited bravery and skill we depend on every day to protect our homeland from the next terrorist attack. Career prosecutors in the Department of Justice have previously reviewed allegations of abuse and concluded that prosecution was not warranted, with the exception of one CIA contractor who has already been convicted. President Obama has established clear guidelines to ensure that past abuses are not repeated and has stated his desire to look forward rather than backward.
We cannot take for granted the fact that our homeland has not been attacked since September 11, 2001. That has occurred only because of the constant vigilance and unflinching efforts by those brave individuals in our military, civilian homeland security and counterterrorism agencies, and the intelligence community. These public servants must of course live within the law but they must also be free to do their dangerous and critical jobs without worrying that years from now a future Attorney General will authorize a criminal investigation of them for behavior that a previous Attorney General concluded was authorized and legal.
From NBC’s Pete Williams
In late December 2002 or early January 2003, the report says, unauthorized techniques were used on an al Qaeda suspect, Abd al Rahim al Nashiri. An American, who was not a trained interrogator and was not authorized to use enhanced methods, used a gun and a power drill to frighten al Nashiri. The gun was held close to his head and "racked," to produce the sound of a round being loaded into the gun's chamber. The power drill was revved while the detainee stood, naked with a hood over his head.
In another incident, a debriefer told al Nashiri, "We could get your mother in here," and "We can bring your family in here." The report says the debriefer was trying to exploit a belief in the Middle East that interrogation techniques included sexually abusing female relatives in front of the detainees.
The inspector says the man, believed to be the 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, was told by a debriefer that if anything else happened in the U.S., "We're going to kill your children."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Tom Costello and Domenico Montanaro
The reason: The Department of Transportation's "Clunkers" filing Web site went down this afternoon.
Tonight's 8:00 pm ET deadline for any sales made stands.
The DOT said there was "an overwhelming demand on the CARS computer system. ... Despite a large increase in the system's capacity, the website was down temporarily this afternoon. Because of the temporary shutdown, dealers have been given extra time to file the necessary paperwork."
From NBC's Alicia Jennings Bill Burton writes in an e-mail to NBC News:
"The President has said repeatedly that he prefers to look forward, not back, and the President agrees with the Attorney General that those who acted in good faith and within the scope of legal guidance should not be prosecuted. Ultimately, decisions about investigations and prosecutions are made independently by the Attorney General."
From NBC’s Pete Williams Eric Holder has directed a federal prosecutor to look into possible violations of U.S. law in the CIA's treatment of terrorism detainees overseas.
Administration officials say he'll give the assignment to a career federal prosecutor in Connecticut, John Durham.
For more than a year, since January 2008, Durham has been investigating whether any laws were broken when CIA officials destroyed audio and videotapes of the interrogations of several terrorism detainees. His work on the tapes issue is not yet completed, though there are indications that Durham is nearly done with that part of his work.
Holder’s statement on a “preliminary review into the interrogation of certain detainees:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Ali Weinberg After revelations surfaced last week that New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie did not disclose a $46,000 loan he gave to a high-level staffer, the campaign of Christie’s opponent, Jon Corzine, today "continued to insinuate that there is an improper relationship" between Christie and the staffer, current First Assistant U.S. Attorney Michele Brown.
State Sen. Loretta Weinberg , running as Corzine's lieutenant governor, urged the U.S. Attorney's Office to remove Brown from the process of retrieving some of Christie's documents, like travel expenses and daily calendars, requested by the Corzine campaign through the Freedom of Information Act.
"Based on what we already know and on today's report by the AP that Christie is refusing to answer who he's still in contact with at the U.S. Attorney's office and how informed he is about day-to-day activities there, we are simply saying we need someone not caught up in this controversy to work on the FOIA requests,” Weinberg said, per PolitickerNJ .
Deeds’ new ad Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds released an ad on Friday echoing a speech he delivered intended to reframe his campaign in terms of "backwards-forwards," where Republican Bob “McDonnell will take the state back, Deeds will take it forward."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Bill Burton shot back that Kansas Sens. Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts were holding up John McHugh's confirmation "for partisan purposes."
Brownback and Roberts do not want Guantanamo detainees moved to Fort Leavenworth, which is in Kansas.
Burton also defended the vacation against the NRCC's, the House political arm's, attack that he shouldn't be taking one: "As I recall, the previous president [took] quite a bit of vacation himself, and I don't think anyone bemoaned that," Burton said.
Liberals certainly bemoaned it.
The Wall Street Journal reports on some of the details of what the president has done so far: This morning, he worked out, played tennis with his wife and planned a golf outing for the afternoon with House Democratic Whip Rep. James Clyburn , who Burton said was already on the island; UBS AG Chief Executive Robert Wolf , a big fund-raiser for Obama; and aide Marvin Nicholson ...."
[*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
The new unit will be headquartered at the FBI and overseen by the NSC's counter terror chief, John Brennan, who used to run the counter terror center at the CIA.
The briefers said they would also create a unit to do scientific studies of "best practices" of interrogation to find out what works.
They pledged that the U.S. would no longer "render" suspects to countries that torture prisoners and that renditions would be overseen by the State Department.
The CIA would still have a role, but a much smaller one under the new system, and the CIA would no longer be involved in running detention camps.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Winston Wilde Arne Duncan and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius acknowledged there is a significant chance of school disruptions in the upcoming flu season, due to H1N1 "swine flu."
At a press conference this morning in front of H.D. Cooke Elementary School, Duncan said, “Some schools may experience large absentee rates; some across the country may even need to be closed temporarily at some point during the school year. We must make sure that learning continues if the virus spreads. That is hugely important.”
He added that the goal for schools nationwide is “to keep our children safe and keep our children learning.”
The Department of Education released instructions to schools today on how to be ready for any possible disruption due to H1N1, including having homework packages ready for students while they must stay home, having online resources accessible from the home (Apple and Microsoft representatives were present at the school, according to Duncan), and maintaining close contact with parents, so they can keep their kids up to speed on curricula.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Washington Post reported that President Obama approved last week a new interrogation unit to be housed at the FBI to question detainees called the High Level Detainee Interrogation Group, or HIG. And the New York Times reports that the Justice Department is recommending the reopening about a dozen CIA interrogation cases.
"The CIA has played a vital role in the work of the task force, and its substantive knowledge will be essential to interrogations going forward," CIA spokesman George Little said, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports.
A U.S. official tells Mitchell that actually "the CIA didn't want to house this initiative. They're glad to be out of the long-term detention business."
Though the White House has said the president has “no plans” to meet with the ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy in nearby Hyannis, we’ll be watching to see if Obama does wind up meeting with Kennedy, an Obama friend, supporter and staunch health reform ally.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Creigh Deeds gave a speech today in vote-rich Northern Virginia in which he contrasted his records and policies with those of his Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell .
Deeds criticized McDonnell's fiscal policies by linking him to George W. Bush . "Just recently he said he believes President Bush did a good job and he created -- and I am quoting here -- 'an economic revival in America.' The fiscal policies of George Bush doubled the national debt and results in over 300,000 Virginians losing their jobs and 48,000 Virginia families losing their homes to foreclosure."
He also drew stark contrasts with McDonnell on social issues like abortion, stem cells, and birth control. "He sponsored 35 bills in the General Assembly to restrict a woman's right to choose," Deeds said of McDonnell. "He introduced legislation to create a different 'class' of marriage four separate times. He supported legislation allowing a pharmacist to refuse to fill birth control prescriptions. He supports vouchers for private schools. He opposes stem cell research and believes that government should interfere in a family's most personal decisions like those of Terri Schiavo and Hugh Finn."
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama's efforts on health care. Paul Krugman says the message is lacking; Peggy Noonan argues that Obama is losing (or has already lost) the debate; and Eugene Robinson writes that Democrats are lacking energy.
And all with good reason -- the president's poll numbers are declining, his opponents are invigorated, and the chances for health reform don't seem to be as good as they were a couple of months ago.
But we've been here before, right?
Here was Krugman back in August of 2008: "[T]he problem isn't lack of specifics -- it's lack of passion. When it comes to the economy, Mr. Obama's campaign seems oddly lethargic. I was astonished at the flatness of the big economy speech he gave in St. Petersburg at the beginning of this month -- a speech that was billed as the start of a new campaign focus on economic issues. Mr. Obama is a great orator, yet he began that speech with a litany of statistics that were probably meaningless to most listeners."
Here was Noonan in late August '08 before the conventions (and after Obama's subpar performance in that Rick Warren forum): "Why is it a real race now, with John McCain rising in the polls and Barack Obama falling? There are many answers, but here I think is an essential one: The American people have begun paying attention."
And here was Robinson around the same time: "If they want to win in November, Democrats have one task to accomplish this week: Snap out of it. Somehow, tentativeness and insecurity have infected a party that ought to be full of confident swagger. It's not that Democrats don't like their odds of winning the presidency and boosting their majorities in both houses of Congress. It's that they are even bothering to calculate and recalculate those odds."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
And here is a new ad the National Republican Congressional Committee is running against Democratic Reps. Michael Arcuri (NY) and Zack Space (OH). The ad refers to Obama's and Pelosi's "risky experiment" on health care, arguing that it will include "massive cuts" to Medicare.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama .
Paul Krugman criticizes the president's messaging in the health-care debate, writing that he comes across, "far too often, as a dry technocrat who talks of 'bending the curve' but has only recently begun to make the moral case for reform. Mr. Obama’s explanations of his plan have gotten clearer, but he still seems unable to settle on a simple, pithy formula; his speeches and op-eds still read as if they were written by a committee."
Peggy Noonan argues that it's time to pull the plug on Obama's health-reform plans. "I write as if health-care reform or insurance reform or whatever it's called this week is already a loss, a historic botch, because it is. Even if the White House wins, they lose, because the cost in terms of public trust and faith was too high."
Eugene Robinson , although much kinder to Obama, contends that Democrats have lost their intensity and focus. "There's not enough passion on the Democratic side, not enough heat. There's some radiating from the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, too little emanating from the Democratic majority in the Senate, and not nearly enough coming from President Obama. Republicans, by contrast, have little going for them except passion -- but they're using it to impressive effect." (That said, the DNC says more than 200,000 people participated in yesterday's strategy session on health care with Obama.)
And Politico has a piece about Obama's lost summer on health care and being forced to going back to square one in the debate.
All this comes as a new Washington Post/ABC poll shows Obama's approval rating dropping to 57% and those who have confidence that he'll make the right decisions for the country falling to 49%.
In other health-care news, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said that no legislation will be able to pass the House unless it contains a public option.
And the bipartisan Senate Finance Committee Gang of Six met last night and Chairman Max Baucus said they had a productive conversation, although there were no breakthroughs.
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama finally seemed to hit his stride Thursday when it came to explaining his goals in plain, brief, to-the-point language.
The administration has had a tough time this month selling its "change" message when it comes to health care in the face of strong, organized, and sometimes rowdy opposition. As negotiations on legislation stalled in Congress ahead of the August recess, misconceptions began to take root among voters who worried about what a comprehensive revamp of an industry that represents one-sixth of the economy would mean for them.
The president's town halls last week in New Hampshire, Montana, and Colorado were part of an effort to explain to the American people how they would be helped by a revamped system, but it was during an interview today at the White House with talk radio host Michael Smerconish that Obama gave perhaps his strongest, clearest defense to date of his health-care plan. He continued his push with a Q&A session at which he sought to rally a group of Organizing for American volunteers.
"We all know this has been an emotional debate," he told supporters assembled at the Democratic National Committee headquarters on Capitol Hill. "We've seen tempers flare, accusations have been hurled, and sometimes it seems like one loud voice can drown out all the civil, sensible voices out there. But remember one thing: Nothing's more powerful than millions of voices calling for change. That's how we won this election. You know this."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Matthew Samuels President Obama in Chicago in July, the Democratic National Committee outraised its Republican counterpart last month.
The Republican National Committee earlier today announced it had raised $6 million in July. But the DNC raised $9.1 million over the same period.
“We have a plan in place and we’re raising the money we need to support our operations on behalf of the president’s agenda, including passing health insurance reform, and to support our political operations, state parties and campaigns," DNC spokesman Brad Woodhouse said in a statement to First Read.
But the RNC still has more cash on hand, more overall money raised and zero debt. The DNC has $16.3 million cash on hand; The RNC has $21.8 (down about $2 million from June, which the RNC says is for prepping the New Jersey and Virginia governor's races.) The DNC is is carrying $5.1 million in debt; The RNC has $0 debt. The DNC has raised a total of $46.7 million this year; The RNC has taken in $51.9 million.
From NBC's Tom Costello and Domenico Montanaro
"This program has been a lifeline to the automobile industry, jump starting a major sector of the economy and putting people back to work," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a released statement. "At the same time, we've been able to take old, polluting cars off the road and help consumers purchase fuel efficient vehicles."
The DOT credits the program with 457,000 "dealer transactions worth $1.9 billion in rebates."
LaHood reiterated the CARS program has been "the best economic news story in America."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Athena Jones President Obama today stressed in an interview with radio-talk host Michael Smerconish that the end he's seeking is keeping down health insurance costs.
And for him, a public option is simply a means -- perhaps one of several -- of achieving that end.
Obama told Smerconish that he believes the public/government option, which would compete against private health insurers, is a good idea. "The press got a little excited and some folks on the left got a little excited," he said in the interview that was broadcast from the White House. "Our position hasn't changed. We think that the key is cost control."
"That's the end that we're seeking. And the means -- we can have some good arguments about the best way to achieve it."
Also in his interview with Smerconish, which included questions from radio listeners across the country, Obama listed his principles for health-care reform:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Political guru Charlie Cook writes that the president's poll approval slide (to about 51%) is evidence that "the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats."
He writes that the Cook Political Report congressional model currently shows Dems losing a net of six to 12 seats in 2010, "but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low."
Here's what Cook wrote today in full:
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Domenico Montanaro
"This program has had a significant stimulative effect on the sale of cars in the U.S., and dealers have submitted hundreds of thousands of vouchers for processing," Reid writes. "In order to capture a sale but also make use of the CARS incentive, dealers have been forced to effectively finance the CARS vouchers for buyers until the dealers are reimbursed by the federal government, placing a strain on dealers' balance sheets that, if prolonged, could eventually offset some of the benefits of the program."
More: "For example, the Department should consider implementing a policy providing that all properly submitted vouchers will be reimbursed within five business days, and continue adding staff and devoting resources as needed to meet this timeline. By adopting such a guideline, dealers will be more willing to place their capital at risk to carry the cost of CARS vouchers until reimbursement."
LaHood has already said the department has staffed up to deal with a backlog of requests for the $4,500 "Cash for Clunkers" initiative. He has not given a specific timeframe for how long it will take the government to get money to every dealership that is owed money.
Here's Reid's full letter:
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From NBC's Betsy Cline Michael Hayden refused to comment specifically about the CIA's hiring of private security contractor Blackwater to assassinate top Al Queda leaders in 2004, saying he doesn't comment on "concrete actions." He was also quick to point out the program reportedly occurred before he took office in 2006.
In a discussion about the privatization of security forces at the National Press Club this morning, Hayden, now a private contractor himself, said the CIA turns to the private sector when "they possess experience or knowledge that [the CIA] doesn't inherently have."
His focus, he said, was to find "whoever was best suited for the job."
Answering critics, Hayden told the audience that people who accuse the CIA of turning to contractors when there's a hard problem "are simply wrong." Referencing reports that the agency uses private security forces to avoid blame, Hayden was adamant.
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From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray Charleston Post & Courier , Sen. Jim DeMint (R) says that not passing health-care reform will result in a single-payer system.
DeMint: If nothing is done, we're likely to end up with a single-payer system anyway in a few years. Every year we're ratcheting down what we're paying doctors and hospitals for Medicare and Medicaid, which means the cost shifting gets greater and fewer employers can offer health insurance. What we're doing is driving the private market out of business anyway, and I think that's why they don't want anything to pass that would make it easier for people to have their own insurance. So if we don't do anything, that's bad too. That's why I made the point -- I could have calibrated my words differently -- that we have to stop the president on this health care thing. ... If it's completely socialized or nationalized, whatever you want to call it, then you've got over half of the American economy in the government hands at some point, and the free enterprise system doesn't work anymore if the government is that involved. So we've got to make a stand here. We've got to stop it. My hope has always been if we could stop them on this ... then we could move on to real freedom solutions that will work in every area of society. That was the last part of my sentence.
From NBC's Mark Murray U.S News' Washington Whispers reports that former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge has an upcoming book claiming that he was pushed to raise the DHS security alert before the 2004 presidential election.
Paul Bedard writes:
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Kennedy’s letter : When Arlen Specter switched parties earlier this year, giving Democrats 60 Senate seats, we noted that Democrats didn’t necessarily have a filibuster-proof majority due to the health of Dem Sens. Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy. Well, in a letter to Massachusetts state leaders, it appears that Kennedy is concerned that there could be times during the health-care debate this fall when Democrats don't have 60 votes. The Boston Globe : “In a personal, sometimes wistful letter sent Tuesday to Governor Deval L. Patrick, Senate President Therese Murray, and House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Kennedy asks that Patrick be given authority to appoint someone to the seat temporarily before voters choose a new senator in a special election… ‘I strongly support that law and the principle that the people should elect their senator,' Kennedy wrote. ‘I also believe it is vital for this Commonwealth to have two voices speaking for the needs of its citizens and two votes in the Senate during the approximately five months between a vacancy and an election.'” Thinking about the future : Sources close to Kennedy tell NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell that he sent the letter, dated July 2, "because he is thinking about the future and what best serves the interests of the state." Sources add that Kennedy's wife, Victoria Reggie Kennedy, an attorney, is not interested in being selected as a potential interim successor, "Vicki is focused on the Senator and her family, not a Senate seat." Asked if the letter is an indication that Kennedy's health is further deteriorating, aides discouraged any suggestion of that saying, "The letter does not mean something is imminent." It’s also worth noting, O’Donnell says, that the governor of Massachusetts received the letter only yesterday despite the July 2 date, per Kennedy aides.
*** The Law of Unintended Consequences : The Boston Globe reports, however, that there’s some resistance to changing the state’s succession law, which calls for a special election to occur five months after a Senate vacancy -- but doesn’t allow for a governor to appoint someone to fill the seat in the interim. Just five years ago, when John Kerry was running for president, the state changed its succession law to prevent Mitt Romney from being able to select a Republican to fill Kerry’s seat if Kerry had won the election. Hence the current law on Massachusetts’ books right now. The good ol’ law of unintended consequences: Sometimes lawmakers get a tad too cute in their attempts to manipulate processes like this, and this was one of those cases.
*** Reconciliation : How serious are Democrats about pushing health care through the budget reconciliation process? Very serious. The president has signaled for MONTHS, not days, that he's willing to go this route. In fact, he hinted at it in an interview with NBC News two weeks ago in Elkhart. The question is whether the threat of reconciliation is about keeping Republicans at the table talking, or whether it's a serious option. We can tell you this: We know the president's experience in the Senate has convinced him that the 60-vote threshold seems a bit absurd to him sometimes. If you can get 55 votes for something, you should be able to get your bill out of the Senate, according to those who have talked with him about this issue. By the way, as the White House has shown public flexibility on the public option, it's worth noting that we STILL can't find a single Republican who has praised the president for suggesting that the public option is optional. Instead, it seems they want to go for the political kill.
*** Obama and the public option : Speaking of the public option, senior White House aides are a little frustrated with the coverage this week of the president's stance on this issue. They believe that his position hasn't changed; in fact, they have emphasized behind the scenes that the president has ALWAYS indicated the public option was negotiable. So what he said last Saturday in Colorado was not new. Of course, it's how he said it and that he did so in public -- which came as a surprise to the most ardent supporters of the public option. Many on the progressive/liberal left did NOT realize how optional the public option was with the president. What will the president say about it today at 2:45 pm ET heads over to the DNC to participate in a health-care strategy session -- by phone and online -- with his Organizing for America grassroots supporters? Before that, Obama will discuss health care on Michael Smerconish’s conservative talk-radio show, which today is being broadcast from the White House.
*** Defining the public option : By the way, here’s another issue regarding the public option: Just what is it? Is it an expansion of Medicare? Is it a separate entity? Is it a new entity? Is it something akin to Freddie and Fannie? It does seem to be one of these policy initiatives that means different things to different folks. True experts on this issue have an idea, but now it has become political hot potato -- over the role of government -- and some of the loudest voices both sides of the issue are probably incapable of giving a good description of what the policy will do. Perhaps this is yet another example of how the White House has made things MORE difficult by not having a defined plan to push/defend.
*** Grassley looking for a way out of the talks? So Senate Finance ranking member Chuck Grassley now says he wants to narrow the scope of the bill . Is he looking for a way out of the talks? Does he wants Democrats and the White House to essentially kick him out of the talks? It sure looks like it. How much more does he have to say that seems to be counter-productive to the bipartisan talks and the White House's agenda before the White House will finally say, “OK, fine, Sen. Grassley -- you’re released!!??!!?? The Senate Finance Gang of Six holds a conference call meeting tonight. Will this be the night Grassley backs out? Is that the signal he's sending? So he's negotiating in the press?
*** Afghanistan’s election : Polls have already closed in Afghanistan’s presidential election, with preliminary results due on Aug. 25 and final results due on Sept. 3, per NBC’s Dax Tejera. The New York Times says turnout was uneven “with higher participation in the relatively peaceful north than in the troubled south, where insurgents threw up makeshift roadblocks in one area to warn off voters. In the southern city of Kandahar, witnesses said, insurgents hanged two people because their fingers were marked with indelible ink used to denote that they had voted.” Wow. More from the Times: “The major question at the election, diplomats and analysts said, is whether President Hamid Karzai will succeed in winning over 50 percent of the vote in the first round, securing a victory, or be pushed into a second, more unpredictable round of voting. A vast field of 34 opponents and a last-minute surge by his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, as well as Taliban intimidation in the volatile south, which is Mr. Karzai’s base, threatened to chip away at the president’s support.”
*** Not worth fighting for? Sticking with the situation in Afghanistan… Last month, in conversations with NBC/WSJ poll respondents about the economy and health care, we told you about a few folks who -- without prompting -- brought up the war in Afghanistan as something that might not be worth escalating or spending money on during these tough times. Today, a Washington Post/ABC poll seems to have found even wider agreement on the issue of whether this is the "good war" as some have referred to it as. According to the poll, a “majority of Americans now see the war in Afghanistan as not worth fighting, and just a quarter say more U.S. troops should be sent to the country.” This is potentially a HUGE turning point in public opinion on the war, and one that could have massive political and policy implications just when the administration is debating whether to send even more troops to the war zone.
*** Blackwater back in the news : NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports that government officials confirm reports in the New York Times and the Washington Post that the CIA subcontracted its secret assassination program to Blackwater, the controversial security program that has in the past drawn fire for using excessive force in Iraq. A senior official tells Mitchell that Blackwater -- since renamed as Xe Services -- was hired at an earlier stage but not in the later stages of the program, which never was "fully operational." The official says the program "never took anyone off the streets."
*** The dog days of August : What is about August and tough times for American presidents? As we’ve noted before, this is the third summer in a row that hasn’t been all that kind for Barack Obama. In August 2007, he was trailing Hillary Clinton in the polls. In August 2008, his lead over John McCain narrowed, spurring plenty of Democratic backseat driving and second-guessing. And in August 2009, he appears to be losing the health-care fight. But Augusts also have been unkind to other recent presidents and presidential candidates. It was August 2001 when George W. Bush unveiled his stem-cell policy that produced plenty of criticism. That same August came the presidential daily briefing entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike In U.S.” In August 2005 came Hurricane Katrina. And it was the Swift-boat campaign of August 2004 that crushed John Kerry's presidential campaign. And remember that certain August in 1998 with Bill Clinton…
*** August break : Speaking of August… In addition to us not publishing our morning note tomorrow, First Read also will be off for the rest of next week. With President Obama in Martha’s Vineyard and with Congress on its recess, we're thinking the Washington noise will be a much lower decibel level. But we will update the First Read Web site if news warrants. The morning dispatch will be back bright and early Monday, Aug. 31.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 75 days
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The Washington Post profiles Howard Dean’s role in the health-care debate. “‘This vote is not about Democrats versus Republicans and conservatives and liberals and all that stuff,’ Dean said, his voice growing louder and his cadence faster. ‘This is about whether you're going to vote for the people who donated to your campaigns -- the health insurance industry -- or you're going to vote for the people who pay your salary. And we're going to be watching, because there are going to be 535 people casting that vote.’”
More: “‘What Howard is doing is principled but destructive,’ said a Democratic strategist and former Dean adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the intraparty debate. ‘If health-care reform goes down because of the public option, it's going to be the liberals that bring it down, the Democrats doing it to themselves."
Joe Klein writes in Time , “This year, the liberal insistence on a marginally relevant public option has been a tactical mistake that has enabled the right’s ‘government takeover’ disinformation jihad… To be sure, there are honorable conservatives, trying to do the right thing... There are conservatives...who make their arguments based on facts. But they have been overwhelmed by nihilists and hypocrites more interested in destroying the opposition and gaining power than in the public weal… There is no Republican health-care alternative in 2009… Some righteous anger seems called for, but that's not Obama's style. He will have to come up with something, though—and he will have to do it without the tiniest scintilla of help from the Republican Party.”
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“Senator Edward M. Kennedy, in a poignant acknowledgment of his mortality at a critical time in the national health care debate, has privately asked the governor and legislative leaders to change the succession law to guarantee that Massachusetts will not lack a Senate vote when his seat becomes vacant,” the Boston Globe reports. “In a personal, sometimes wistful letter sent Tuesday to Governor Deval L. Patrick, Senate President Therese Murray, and House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Kennedy asks that Patrick be given authority to appoint someone to the seat temporarily before voters choose a new senator in a special election.” Here’s the letter .
Chuck Grassley, the lead Republican negotiator on the Senate Finance Committee, now wants to narrow the scope of the bill. He says the public response he's seen while traveling Iowa has convinced him you can't do major reform. "Not just on health care, but on a lot of other things Congress has done this year, people are signaling that we ought to slow up and find out where we are and don't spend so much money and don't get us so far into debt," he said in a telephone interview between stops in Iowa Falls and Ames, where he has been leading foreign diplomats on a week-long tour of the state. The Finance Committee group is still discussing a ‘comprehensive’ plan for extending coverage to millions of uninsured families, he said, but revisiting that approach would be ‘a natural outcome of what people may be getting from the town hall meetings.’”
The Wall Street Journal outlines how a two-bill plan would work regarding a vote in the Senate.
At a Chamber of Commerce lunch in Nevada, Sen. John Ensign told The Associated Press on Wednesday that his affair with a friend's wife was different from former President Bill Clinton's relationship with a White House intern because he didn't lie about it under oath. ‘I haven't done anything legally wrong,’ the Nevada Republican said. ‘President Clinton stood right before the American people and he lied to the American people,’ Ensign said. ‘You remember that famous day he lied to the American people, plus the fact I thought he committed perjury. That's why I voted for the articles of impeachment.’” He got a standing ovation after he was introduced.
“Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney says President Barack Obama is struggling to get a health care bill because he has been too deferential to the liberal wing of his party. Interviewed from Boston Thursday on CBS's ‘The Early Show,’ Romney said he thinks the president must shoulder the blame for the gridlocked situation surrounding health care legislation. He said Obama gave too much influence to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and others. Romney said that ‘if the president wants to get something done, he needs to put aside the extreme liberal wing of his party.’ Romney, who ran for the Republican presidential nod last year, said Medicare and Medicaid already account for virtually half of health care and there shouldn't be any greater federal role.”
But has Romney allowed Tim Pawlenty to become more associated with the debate over health care? Politico : “Minnesota GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty, best known among Republicans for his fiscal record, has discovered a policy niche that is beginning to pay dividends for his prospective 2012 presidential bid: health care. Though party insiders tend to be more familiar with the two-term governor’s record of balancing his state’s budget three times when facing deficits without raising taxes, he is emerging as a key GOP voice during the health care debate by occupying a space between two party poles, with former Alaska GOP Gov. Sarah Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich positioned on one side and former Massachusetts GOP Gov. Mitt Romney on the other.”
NORTH CAROLINA : This would be HUGE news for the DSCC... Blue Dem Rep. Bobby Etheridge is considering a Senate bid again against GOP incumbent Richard Burr. VIRGINIA : In every gubernatorial race in Virginia since 1977, the party that won the White House lost the Governor’s Mansion,” the Washington Post writes, calling the trend “understandable.” A Washington Post poll released this week “shows that discontent about the nation and the state -- run by Democrats as president and governor -- is helping fuel Republican Bob McDonnell’s early lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds.” Even in “left-leaning Northern Virginia, where federal issues are most acute, the two run about even, 45 percent for Deeds to 42 percent for McDonnell.” And: “Although 75 percent of Virginia voters who backed Obama said they would vote for Deeds, 13 percent plan to vote for McDonnell.”
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama called on religious leaders to help pass a health-care overhaul, by knocking on doors and sharing the truth about the plan's proposals to counter those who have been "bearing false witness."
He made the push during brief remarks on a conference call Wednesday with faith leaders to discuss what he calls a moral obligation to revamp the health-care system to ensure that no one in America is denied basic health care, because they lack insurance or cannot afford the exorbitant fees sometime charged by insurers.
"I know we've got thousands of people on this call from many different denominations of faith," Obama said, "but the one thing that you all share is a moral conviction. You know this debate over health care goes to the heart of who we are as a people."
Negotiations on health-care legislation in Congress stalled in the days leading up to the August recess. Since then, the administration has struggled to get its health-care message out to the American people in the face of inaccurate information about what an overhaul would do. Today, the president sought to fight what he called "deceptive attacks" and "ludicrous ideas" that have been spread by opponents of health care revamp.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
They are: Carl Edwards, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch, Bobby Labonte, Dale Jarrett, Terry Labonte, Rusty Wallace, Bill Elliott, Darrell Waltrip, Richard Petty and Juan Pablo Montoya.
At First Read, we had a little fun with this in our Week Ahead video .
And the House Republican political arm is taking the opportunity to take a shot at the president:
“While President Obama is meeting with some of NASCAR’s greatest drivers, he may come to find out that the only thing he has in common with NASCAR Nation is a shared love for steering hard to the left," said Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee. "The president is currently trading paint with the American taxpayer over his dangerous healthcare takeover, taking needless victory laps celebrating a failed economic stimulus bill, and if he and his fellow Democrats don’t start listening to middle class voters, his agenda is going to end up in the wall.”
Hardy, har-har.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Bill Richardson said that his talks today with two visiting North Korean diplomats suggested that the temperature has cooled down in the relationship -- after a period of increasing hostility.
Richardson said North Korea is now prepared to have a dialogue with the United States again, but that Pyongyang is still resisting participating in the regional six-party talks that the U.S. has demanded. He said the visiting diplomats spoke positively of the meeting with Bill Clinton and seem to want to engage. The governor stressed that they requested the meeting, and that he is not negotiating in any way for the Obama administration.
"Maybe there is a little thaw signaled here," Richardson said, adding that the State Department approved the visit. (The diplomats are attached to the North Korean UN mission in New York and need permission to travel outside the radius of NYC.)
Asked what he may have learned about the health of Kim Jong Il, Richardson said "he did look pretty healthy to me" (in pictures from the Clinton trip).
On North Korea's bargaining posture, Richardson said, "The North Koreans clearly feel they are owed something, that they released the two Americans that they want something in return."
Asked about the North Korean demand for one on one talks with the U.S., Richardson said, "I agree it's going to be hard to keep South Korea, China, Japan out of the conversation with North Korea." But Richardson suggested that maybe there is a framework within six-party talks for one-on-one talks, as has happened before.
From NBC's Matthew Samuels Don Hewitt, one of the pioneers of television news and the creator of CBS's "60 Minutes" died today of pancreatic cancer. He was 86 years old.
More from the "60 Minutes"
Web site : "Hewitt's remarkable career in journalism spanned over 60 years, virtually all of it at CBS. As a young producer/director assisting at the birth of television news, it was usually Hewitt behind the scenes directing legendary CBS News reporters like Edward R. Murrow and Walter Cronkite, using a playbook he had to write himself. He played an integral role in all of CBS News' coverage of major news events from the late 1940s through the 1960s, putting him in the middle of some of history's biggest events, including one of politics' seminal moments: the first televised presidential debate in 1960."
More: "As Hewitt's ['60 Minutes'] correspondents exposed crooks, drilled to the core of a celebrity or interrogated world leaders and newsmakers, 60 Minutes became an unprecedented success, drawing legions of faithful followers who planned their Sundays around the program. Even when CBS lost its NFL contract in 1994, putting its former lead-in audience on another network to compete against it, 60 Minutes was still a huge hit, finishing number six for the 1994-95 season. Hewitt always had stock answers to questions about what 60 Minutes' secret was. He often told journalists, 'It's four words every child knows: Tell me a story.'"
From NBC's Mark Murray Max Baucus released a statement stressing his desire for a bipartisan health-care bill. Now ranking member Chuck Grassley -- despite his earlier words that he'd vote against any legislation that doesn't attract more GOP support, even if it contains everything he's asking for -- says he wants to "keep working" to craft a bipartisan bill.
From NBC's Winston Wilde Ray LaHood addressed the CARS, or Cash for Clunkers, program -- specifically the backlog of "clunker" rebates that have not yet been paid.
"Car dealerships are not complaining that they've sold 300,000 to 400,000 new automobiles!" LaHood said, adding, "The only criticism has not been from car buyers, or dealerships ... but from the sheer number of cars that have been sold; we haven't had the processing power" to handle all the reimbursement applications.
The Washington Post wrote this morning that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration would be tripling its workforce to process the applications, and when asked about the timetable for this boost, LaHood signaled that it would be implemented immediately, but could not specify how long it would take for the backlog to be cleared up.
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From NBC's Mark Murray Chuck Grassley's comments on Monday, but Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus has released a statement stressing that his committee is still working on a bipartisan bill.
Baucus:
Bipartisan progress continues. The Finance Committee is on track to reach a bipartisan agreement on comprehensive health care reform that can pass the Senate. Our group will be meeting tomorrow and our staffs continue to meet as well. I am confident we will continue our steady progress toward health care reform that will lower costs and provide quality, affordable coverage to all Americans.
From NBC's Mark Murray New York Times story that the White House is increasingly focused on passing a health-care legislation without GOP support -- given developments like Chuck Grassley's recent comments -- Republicans are now accusing Team Obama for abandoning bipartisanship.
Here's what White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said in the Times: "The Republican leadership has made a strategic decision that defeating President Obama’s health care proposal is more important for their political goals than solving the health insurance problems that Americans face every day.”
But Republican counter that it's the White House's fault. Here's House Minority Leader John Boehner : “The announcement that Democrats will abandon bipartisanship in order to pass their costly government takeover of health care is nothing new. From day one, the White House has taken a go-it-alone approach on health care."
More from Boehner: "Months ago, Republicans sent the President a letter noting areas of potential common ground on health care reform and requesting a meeting with him to discuss a bipartisan way forward. The Administration rejected our efforts to work together, choosing instead to craft a costly government takeover of health care and to march forward on a partisan basis solely with Democrats in Congress."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Michael Steele was on MSNBC's Morning Joe and did nothing to dissuade viewers from believing that so-called "death panels" are in the bills moving their way through Congress.
As Politico writes, "Asked if he thinks there is a 'death panel' provision in the bill -- a suggestion that has been proven untrue and that the White House has spent a week trying to knock down -- Steele said he does not know. 'It may or may not be. I don’t know. We don’t know what the bill is,' Steele said. 'But there’s clearly an attempt by at least the House members to put in place a structure that causes concern for the American people in respect to end of life decisions. I think that’s a legitimate point. You don’t have to call it death panels if you don’t want to. You can call it a panel. I call it rationing.'"
As we've written previously on First Read, including again in First Thoughts this morning -- citing non-partisan fact-checkers -- there are no such "death panels."
But, reached for a response on Steele's comments, RNC spokeswoman Gail Gitchco not only defended them, but added that "death panels have not been totally debunked."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Good news and bad news: The (relatively) good news for the Obama White House in the new NBC News poll is that the contours of the health-care debate haven’t really changed that much since those raucous congressional town-hall meetings began about two weeks ago. The bad news, however, is that the American public continues to have concerns about the president’s plans, and this comes after a big-time P.R. blitz from the president himself and supporters using millions in TV ads. Consider: 40% (a plurality) believe the plans would worsen the quality of health care, only 41% approve of President Obama’s handling of issue, and 54% are more worried that the government will go too far in reforming the nation’s health system than they are concerned the reform won’t do enough to reduce costs and cover the uninsured. Still, there is an appetite for reform. A combined 60% of respondents say the system needs either a “complete overhaul” or “major reform.” But that combination has declined 10 points since April, and the percentage wanting a “complete overhaul” has dropped 12 points since that time.
*** What’s in it for me? In short, the president can't get across the "what's in it for us?" part of his health-care message. Folks with private insurance, in particular, are becoming more negative about his reform proposals. Clearly, the White House is seeing similar polling results as the president's last three town-hall meetings were about health INSURANCE reform and were an attempt to answer the "what's in it for me?" question so many folks WITH insurance have.
*** Rampant misinformation: One of the reasons why the public appears so wary about Obama’s health-care plans is due to all the misinformation out there. Majorities in the poll believe the plans would give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants (55%), would lead to a government takeover of the health system (54%), and would use taxpayer dollars to pay for women to have abortions (50%) -- all claims that nonpartisan fact-checkers say are untrue about the legislation that has emerged so far from Congress. Additionally, 45% think the reform proposals would allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care for the elderly, which also isn’t true. When you have nearly half of the public believing that the government is willing to pull the plug on grandma, you’re in trouble.
*** FOX vs. CNN/MSNBC: Here’s another way to look at the misinformation: In our poll, 72% of self-identified FOX News viewers believe the health-care plan will give coverage to illegal immigrants, 79% of them say it will lead to a government takeover, 69% think that it will use taxpayer dollars to pay for abortions, and 75% believe that it will allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing care for the elderly. But it would be incorrect to suggest that this is ONLY coming from conservative viewers who tune in to FOX. In fact, 41% of CNN/MSNBC viewers believe the misinformation about illegal immigrants, 39% believe the government takeover stuff, 40% believe the abortion misperception, and 30% believe the stuff about pulling the plug on grandma. What’s more, a good chunk of folks who get their news from broadcast TV (NBC, ABC, CBS) believe these things, too. This is about credible messengers using the media to get some of this misinformation out there, not as much about the filter itself. These numbers should worry Democratic operatives, as well as the news media that have been covering this story.
*** The swing-vote coalition: Obama’s overall approval rating in the poll is 51%, a two-point drop since last month and a 10-point decline since April. Obama continues to fare well with the coalition that propelled him to the White House -- among blacks, Hispanics, 18-29 year olds, urban residents, and those with post-graduate degrees. But according to our NBC co-pollsters, the president isn’t performing as well with key swing-voter groups -- independents (46%-42% approve/disapprove), seniors (47%-45%), and suburban women. And seniors and suburban women are the primary users of the health-care system; they know the intricacies of the insurance industry more so than most folks, and so losing them may be DIRECTLY related to health care right now. One other thing worth pointing out: While the approval of Obama’s handling of health care is at 41%, the public doesn’t seem to trust the Republican Party at all on the issue; just 21% approve of the GOP’s handling of health care.
*** Obama’s and Biden’s day: At 4:30 pm ET today, President Obama will deliver remarks from the White House honoring 2008 Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson. An hour later, the president will host a conference with faith leaders to discuss health reform. Also today, Vice President Biden and Education Secretary Arnie Duncan head to the battleground state of Florida to argue how the stimulus has benefited the state (the administration says that 26,000 education jobs in Florida have been saved, and that the state has received $3.1 billion in stimulus funds for education and $8.3 billion in overall stimulus funds).
*** Obama’s Thursday: Obama also will have an interesting Thursday. The White House tells First Read that the president tomorrow will be a guest on conservative talk-radio host Michael Smerconish’s program, and they’ll discuss health-care reform. Smerconish will broadcast his program from Diplomatic Room at the White House, and it will be the first radio show to be broadcast from the White House since Obama took office. Also on Thursday, Obama will participate in a strategy session -- by phone and online -- on health care with supporters from his Organizing for America list.
*** A thaw in the freeze? NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports that two North Korean diplomats will be meeting in Santa Fe, NM for the next two days with Gov. Bill Richardson. This is their first trip since 2007, when they helped arrange Richardson's trip to Pyongyang to recover the remains of U.S. soldiers. Mitchell adds that all this activity is the first sign of a real opening after a year of escalating tension, including North Korea’s nuclear tests and missile firings. Also, The meeting with Richardson comes only one day after Bill Clinton and President Obama met at the White House to discuss Clinton’s recent trip to Pyongyang, when he brought back journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee.
*** Bob Novak: The most immediate legacy of longtime columnist/reporter Bob Novak is the Valerie Plame incident. That's too bad. Novak was a trailblazer; he was among the first class of print reporters who made the jump to TV pundit/analyst. Novak opened the door for a lot of folks to walk through over the last 40 years. He was a columnist with a point of view, who grounded his writings with reporting. Too many ideological columnists these days simply spout off. Novak certainly could spout off on the capital-gains tax or the U.S. policy toward Israel, but he spent as much time actually reporting, actually working sources, actually trying to uncover a great political nugget or two. Was there anything more fun to read, as a political junkie, than his Saturday notebook column in the Chicago Sun-Times? Here's hoping some ideological bloggers/columnists out there today truly look at Novak's work in its entirety and learn from his ethic -- which was that you can have more success getting a point of view across if you actually do your homework and do real reporting. And then there were his vests... Nobody could pull off the three-piece suit like Bob Novak (or those red sweater vests at Christmas). RIP.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 76 days
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Here’s the write-up of our new NBC News poll on the health-care debate: “Two weeks since raucous congressional town-hall meetings on health care became a national story -- and days after President Barack Obama began holding his own town halls -- Americans remain skeptical about White House plans to overhaul the nation’s health system, according to a new NBC News poll. A plurality believes Obama’s health plan would worsen the quality of health care, a result that is virtually unchanged from last month’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. What’s more, only four in 10 approve of the president’s handling of the issue, which also is unchanged from July. And a majority -- 54 percent -- is more concerned that the government will go too far in reforming the nation’s health care system, while 41 percent is more worried that the reform will not do enough to lower costs and cover the uninsured.”
Channeling First Thoughts from yesterday , the New York Times front-pages that it looks like Democrats are going to have to go it alone on health care. “Given hardening Republican opposition to Congressional health care proposals, Democrats now say they see little chance of the minority’s cooperation in approving any overhaul, and are increasingly focused on drawing support for a final plan from within their own ranks… Rahm Emanuel, the White House chief of staff, said the heated opposition was evidence that Republicans had made a political calculation to draw a line against any health care changes, the latest in a string of major administration proposals that Republicans have opposed. ‘The Republican leadership,’ Mr. Emanuel said, ‘has made a strategic decision that defeating President Obama’s health care proposal is more important for their political goals than solving the health insurance problems that Americans face every day.’”
The AP : "Frustrated liberals have a question for President Barack Obama and Democratic lawmakers: Isn't it time the other guys gave a little ground on health care? What's the point of a bipartisan bill, they ask, if we're making all the concessions?"
Also channeling yesterday’s First Thoughts , the Washington Post has the White House wondering how the public option became such a litmus test for the left. “‘I don't understand why the left of the left has decided that this is their Waterloo,’ said a senior White House adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ‘We've gotten to this point where health care on the left is determined by the breadth of the public option. I don't understand how that has become the measure of whether what we achieve is health-care reform.’”
CONTINUED >>
Barney Frank was the latest to experience the rowdy town hall. "Frank, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, sought to assure more than 500 people attending a rowdy town hall-style meeting in a Southeastern Massachusetts senior center that the average taxpayer would not be hurt by plans currently under consideration in Congress," the Boston Globe writes. "Frank said some money could come from a tax hike on people making more than $325,000 a year and clamping down on foreign tax havens used by companies operating in the country."
The New York Times profiles Max Baucus. “After speaking at a preventive-care conference here last week, he was swarmed by protesters. Or, in Mr. Baucus’s words, ‘agitators, whose sole goal was to intimidate, disrupt and not let any meaningful conversation go on.’ There were a couple of people in the crowd ‘with YouTubes,’ Mr. Baucus added (meaning cameras), and he posited that the agitators were paid and probably from out of state. (‘I could just sense it,’ he said.)”
Roll Call : "Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) on Tuesday defended critics of Democratic health care reform plans who claim the proposals would provide subsidized health care to illegal immigrants. Kyl said Democrats have long sought to block curbs on public services for people illegally in the country." None of the bills being considered by Congress would provide funding for health care for illegal immigrants. Democrats have argued that Americans already pay for sick care for illegal immigrants who show up at emergency rooms and cannot be denied treatment.
Cable Catnip Alert: "If the 2012 presidential election were held today, and Palin was the GOP candidate, she’d get wiped out by President Obama, a new Marist poll showed Tuesday. Only 33% of registered voters would go for Palin compared to Obama’s 56%, with 11% undecided."
"The prescription drug industry’s lobbying arm is defending its deal with President Barack Obama in the wake of criticism from House Minority Leader John Boehner, who charged it with 'appeasing' the Obama administration. 'At the end of the day, comprehensive healthcare reform is good for patients, the economy and the future of our country,' Ken Johnson, senior vice president of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), said in an interview with The Hill . Asked about Boehner’s “appeasement” accusation, Johnson called for more civility in the debate. 'Emotions are riding high on both sides and we are not going to fan the flames,' he said."
CALIFORNIA: "Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the first woman to lead a Fortune 20 company, announced Tuesday that she has begun 'the formal process' to explore a challenge to liberal California Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Fiorina, who served as a senior economic adviser to Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 presidential campaign, has filed the name 'Carly for California' with the IRS."ILLINOIS: "Businessman Chris Kennedy announced Tuesday that he will not seek the Democratic nomination for Senate in Illinois, paving the way for state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias to become the favorite." Kennedy is the son of the late Robert F. Kennedy. NEW JERSEY: "The top federal prosecutor in New Jersey is facing an internal ethics investigation over public comments that may have helped his ex-boss' campaign for governor, law enforcement officials told The Associated Press on Tuesday… Asked about the issue of corruption in the state, Marra said: 'There are easily reforms that could be made within this state that would make our job easier, or even take some of the load off our job. There are too many people that profit off the system the way it is and so they have no incentive to change it. The few people that want to change it seem to get shouted down. So how long that cycle's going to continue I just don't know.' Justice Department guidelines say a prosecutor 'shall refrain from making extrajudicial comments that pose a serious and imminent threat of heightening public condemnation of the accused.'" (Republican Chris Christie is running for governor and was Marra's former boss.)
CONTINUED >>
From msnbc.com's Tom Curry
One woman, Dona Darling, 86, voiced worry that if Congress enacts the overhaul of health insurance which Donnelly and his colleagues are debating, she wouldn’t be able to see her doctor, because he’d be too busy dealing with all his new insured patients who used to be uninsured.
A man in the audience told Donnelly that it’s not just federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid and the new health insurance plan – it’s all federal spending that’s gotten out of control, leading to massive borrowing from China and soon “we’re all going to have to learn Chinese.”
“I won’t support any plan that actually costs the taxpayers money,” Donnelly assured the audience. He added that the House Energy and Commerce Committee bill, H.R. 3200, “is not deficit neutral right now.” CBO has scored it as costing $232 billion over ten years and, he added, “That’s $232 billion we don’t have.”
Why is Donnelly – and his so-far noncommittal attitude – important?
Because he’s one of the 52 fiscally cautious Blue Dog House Democrats – many representing Republican-leaning rural districts in the South and Midwest. If Speaker Nancy Pelosi loses all of the Blue Dogs, she won’t have enough votes to get a bill passed.
Donnelly signaled his preference for a far less sweeping bill instead of one that tries to solve all health care problems at once.
“What’s being discussed right now is: are there a couple of incremental steps, rather than trying to bite off the whole thing at one time?”
Later, in an interview, Donnelly asked rhetorically, “Would people accept it better if it were just one or two steps to try to fix some of the things that are broken?”
He suggested that it might be better “if we take a few steps now, we get those passed; a few steps next year, same thing, and work on the areas of most critical importance.”
Any bill, he said must solve the problem of denial of insurance to those with pre-existing medical conditions – and it must be deficit neutral.
He told us that, yes, he is getting a lot more push-back from constituents than he usually does on trips home, with huge turnouts of 500 people out at events in Mishawaka and Kokomo. “The push-back isn’t so much, ‘you’ve done this’ or ‘you’ve done that,’– the push-back is, ‘Joe, slow this train down. Make sure what’s being done is being done right.’”
He acknowledged that Medicare spending was on a path that was “financially unsustainable” – yet in the next breath he assured the seniors that care would not be affected. “Is your coverage going to be changed? No. Are we going to set up death panels? No. You hear these things and I’m here to tell you that’s not true.”
He told them, “What I promise to you is I’ll do what seems to be the most common sense thing to do. We don’t work for the president. We don’t work for a political party.”
As for Obama, he said, “You may not agree with him but this guy is doing everything he can in his mind to do what he thinks is right. He’s working non-stop.”
As for the public option, he said, “We don’t know right now whether there will be a public option.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray Nancy Pelosi's office and the group Health Care for America Now -- have raised questions why our poll measured whether Americans supported the "choice" of a public/government option in June, while in July and this month it removed "choice" and simply asked whether Americans favor or oppose the option.
"One can only wonder why the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll removed the concept of choice of a public option after 76% of Americans say they want that choice," said HCAN national campaign manager Richard Kirsch in a statement. "By dropping what the president proposes and what the public strongly supports - giving people a choice - from their list of questions, the NBC/Wall Street Journal pollsters misrepresent reform and raise questions about their own agenda."
NBC pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R) released the following statement: "The only agenda that we have is to accurately measure changes in public opinion. To that end, we selected two questions which we think are the best barometers of how and if attitudes on health care are changing in view of the robust public debate that is occurring."
From NBC's Mark Murray President Barack Obama began holding his own town halls — Americans remain skeptical about White House plans to overhaul the nation’s health system, according to a new NBC News poll.
A plurality believes Obama’s health plan would worsen the quality of health care, a result that is virtually unchanged from last month’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. What’s more, only four in 10 approve of the president’s handling of the issue, which also is unchanged from July.
And a majority — 54 percent — is more concerned that the government will go too far in reforming the nation’s health care system, while 41 percent is more worried that the reform will not do enough to lower costs and cover the uninsured.
“But they have changed enough to illustrate an environment that has gotten tougher” for the White House, he says.
Damaging misperceptions
Majorities in the poll believe the plans would give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants; would lead to a government takeover of the health system; and would use taxpayer dollars to pay for women to have abortions — all claims that nonpartisan fact-checkers say are untrue about the legislation that has emerged so far from Congress.
That also is untrue: The provision in the House legislation that critics have seized on — raising the specter of “death panels” or euthanasia — would simply allow Medicare to pay doctors for end-of-life counseling, if the patient wishes.
Click here for more on the poll.
From NBC's Courtney Kube
"Clearly, they do not have the capacity to intimidate and prevent 15 million Afghans voters that have registered for this election," said Brig. Gen. Eric Tremblay, a spokesman for the International Security Assistance Force, during a briefing from Kabul.
Despite Tremblay's confidence, daily attacks in Afghanistan have increased more than 30% from just over a week ago (they are up from about 32 per day 10 days ago to about 48 today). Asked about those attack numbers, Tremblay pointed out that with about 6,500 polling stations around the country, that would translate to less than 1% of the voting locations being subject to attack on Election Day.
The Australian general serving as chief of the ISAF Election Task Force was also optimistic, declaring that the security would allow "reasonable access to about 85 percent to 90 percent" of estimated 15-to-17 million voters now registered.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Libby Leist Hillary Clinton 's spokesman Ian Kelly said today that scheduling conflicts are the reason the secretary of state won't participate in the meeting on North Korea between President Obama and her husband, former President Bill Clinton in the Situation Room this afternoon.
Kelly pushed back any suggestion that it was suspicious for Clinton not to be there. He insisted that it is "simply a matter of trying to juggle schedules." Clinton is scheduled to meet with the Colombian foreign minister and hold a news conference about the same time as the Obama-Bill Clinton meeting.
Instead, Clinton has designated her chief of staff Cheryl Mills to attend the meeting. According to Clinton aides, Mills played a key role in planning Bill Clinton's mission to North Korea and Clinton thinks Mills is the "appropriate" person to participate today because of that role.
As to what Bill Clinton has told the secretary of state about his visit to North Korea and the condition of Kim Jong Il , Kelly said he has "no doubt" the former president has briefed his wife, but he wouldn't go beyond that.
"It's our longstanding policy not to discuss the substance of conversations between the secretary and either of the two presidents she deals with," he said, "one former, one present."
From NBC’s Betsy Cline Kathleen Sebelius took the opportunity to clarify her comments from CNN's State of the Union " in a speech to Medicare fraud prevention advocates this morning. Sebelius' comments Sunday that a public option of the health-care reform proposal was "not essential" was interpreted by some as a shift by the White House.
"All I can tell you is that Sunday must have been a very slow news day, because here's the bottom line: absolutely nothing has changed," she said. "We continue to support the public option that will help lower costs, give American consumers more choice and keep private insurers honest."
Sebelius said a public option would work "side-by-side" with private insurers, to "[provide] choice in markets that are often dominated by one insurance company."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Ted Kennedy and his wife called him and recommended that he have the same operation the senator had.
It prolonged Novak's life for another year -- enabling him to attend some games last season of his beloved Washington Redskins. He is survived by his wife Geraldine and a son and daughter.
Although Bob was known as "the Prince of Darkness" -- for his conservative views -- he was also a longstanding friend of many Democrats, including the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan and his wife, Liz.
He was also one of the best known performers -- and a past president -- of the Gridiron Club.
From NBC's Mark Murray
And according to a brand-new NBC News poll, 47% of Americans -- a plurality -- oppose the public plan, versus 43% who support it. That's a shift from last month's NBC/WSJ poll, when 46% said they backed it and 44% were opposed.
In a follow-up question explaining the benefits and disadvantages associated with a public plan, 45% said they agreed with the description -- by supporters -- that it would help lower health-care costs and provide coverage for uninsured Americans.
But 48% sided with opponents who say a public option would reduce access to their choice of doctors, and would lower costs by limiting medical treatment options.
Tune into Nightly News, or click onto MSNBC.com, for the full results of the poll at 6:30 pm ET.
The poll was conducted Aug. 15-17 of 805 adults. It has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Liberal backlash : So what’s worse for the Obama White House -- that Republicans are aiming all their fire to defeat health-care reform, or that liberals are now up in arms over the idea that the president isn’t 100% behind a public/government insurance option? Sen. Russell Feingold said that "without a public option, I don't see how we will bring real change to a system that has made good health care a privilege for those who can afford it.” Rep. Anthony Weiner, who made the expedient decision not to run against Mike Bloomberg for NYC mayor, is threatening that 100 House Democrats won’t support any health-care bill that doesn’t contain a public option. And liberal pundits are upset, too. Jon Stewart, in fact, used a sledgehammer last night, mocking the White House for its inability to stay on message, like the Bush White House was able to do in the run-up to the Iraq war. Here’s a fun little exercise: Find one, ONE, Republican (or even a conservative Democrat) who is publicly praising the White House's backtrack in any of the clips this morning.
*** Poll day! Just how is the health-care debate playing -- after the coverage of the rowdy town halls and after Obama’s own three town halls last week? Well, NBC News has a new poll that answers this question and others, including what do Americans believe the health-care reform will do or not do. For the results, be sure to tune into MSNBC (and First Read) for a teaser result or two this afternoon. And then, beginning at 6:30 pm ET, be sure to watch NBC Nightly News or click onto MSNBC.com for the entire survey.
*** Grassley’s huge admission : Lost in yesterday’s intense focus about whether or not the Obama administration was backing away from a public/government option was a significant development in the health-care debate that COULD make it easier to pass legislation that would make most Democrats happy. That development: Senate Finance Committee ranking member Chuck Grassley admitting that he probably wouldn’t vote for any type of bill -- even if he got everything he wanted in it. “I am negotiating for Republicans, and if I can’t get something that gets more than four Republicans, I am not a very good representative of my party,” he told one of us on MSNBC yesterday morning. When pressed if he’d vote against a bill that he considered a good deal, he replied, “It isn't a good deal if I can’t sell my product to more Republicans.” So this begs the question: Why is the White House still negotiating with him, unless Grassley truly believes he can whip up more GOP support than McConnell and Kyl.
*** “Democrats are going to have to do it themselves” : If Grassley’s comments last week on end-of-life counseling weren’t the final nails in the coffin on being able to draft a bipartisan bill, then yesterday’s admission yesterday definitely was. As Richard Kirsch, the national campaign manager of the liberal-leaning Health Care for America Now, puts it: Grassley acknowledged that he was sitting at the negotiating table, but not negotiating in good faith. “If they walk away,” he said, “Democrats are going to have to do it themselves.” And doing it themselves means that the negotiations will occur to win over centrist Democrats (like Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mark Pryor, Kent Conrad) and not Republicans (like Grassley and Enzi). On the other hand, Grassley’s admission yesterday may further upset some Democrats who believe the president has been too quick to cut a deal, like dangling the omission of a public option as a compromise.
*** The public option litmus test : Honest question: How did the debate over health turn into a debate over the public option -- a term that political reporters who covered the ’08 presidential primaries and general election rarely ever heard from the candidates? According to Yale political science professor Jacob Hacker, who is a public-option proponent, progressives and reform advocates have seen it over the past few years as a mechanism to ensure accountability from a system centered on private insurance, and Obama, Clinton, and Edwards all included it in their health-care plans. But what also elevated the issue, Hacker says, was the opposition from the right, which then only stiffened the resolve from liberals. Kirsch raises a third reason: The back-and-forth over the public option is much easier for the media to understand than the debate over other health policy minutiae.
*** Who else knew Baucus once supported the public option? As we were researching the genesis of the public option in the current debate over health-care reform, we Lexis-Nexis-ed the term “public option” after the presidential contest. Guess who was the first person whose name came up associated with the term? None other than Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, who introduced a white paper after the election calling FOR a health-care framework WITH a public option. Per MarketWatch on November 12: “Max Baucus of Montana, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, released an 89-page ‘Call to Action’ that he said represents his vision for reform. The plan would: Create a new health insurance exchange that would guarantee coverage for individuals and small businesses. They could compare prices between private health plans and a new public option similar to Medicare and use a standardized form to enroll in coverage. Some individuals and small businesses would be eligible for subsidies to offset the cost.” Just askin’, but when was the last time Baucus praised the public option idea?
*** Obama and Virginia : In the 2008 election, no state was more representative of the national result than Virginia. So pay attention to these new Obama-Virginia numbers from the Washington Post . "Obama gets solid overall marks as president, but on his biggest domestic initiative, health care, Virginians are divided down the middle: 49 percent approve of his actions; 48 percent disapprove. On this and other issues, more Virginians are strongly opposed to his stewardship than fervently in favor." More: "Among all Virginians, 57 percent said they approve of the way he is handling his job as president. Among independents, Obama gets slim majority approval. On the specific issues tested in the Post poll -- health care, the deficit, taxes, energy policy and the economy -- he gets less than 50 percent approval in each category among independents."
*** Suicide attack in Afghanistan : Two days before the presidential election in Afghanistan, Reuters reports that a suicide blast went off on a major road east of Kabul. “Witnesses said a suicide car bomber had attacked a convoy of foreign troops on the road linking Kabul with the eastern city of Jalalabad road. The United Nations has a large compound in the area but a U.N source said it did not appear that was the target.” Per NBC’s Madeleine Haeringer, seven civilians were killed in the blast, and 53 were injured.
*** Bill, Hillary, and Barack : It's just an accident of scheduling, but Bill and Hillary each have separate meetings with the President Obama today, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports. Bill will meet with Obama in the Situation room (presumably to debrief on North Korea), while Hillary will have her regular weekly one-on-one with the president. Also today, Obama meets at the White House with Egyptian President Mubarak.
*** Stop! Hammer time!
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 77 days
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Politico says liberals are in "revolt" over the prospect of not having a so-called public option in a health reform bill. "A group of left-leaning House Democrats ... [say] ... a bill without a public option simply won’t win enough votes in their caucus -- a sentiment that raises fresh questions about the prospects to enact sweeping health care reform this year."
The New York Post puts the liberal frustration on its cover. "Dr. O No! Liberals howl as Bam wobbles on health plan."
But: "White House press secretary Robert Gibbs insisted Monday that there has been no change in President Barack Obama’s desire to see a public health insurance option be part of a healthcare bill." He said, “I got to tell you, this is one of the more curious things I've ever seen in my life… I was on a Sunday show, I said the same thing about a public option that I've said for I don't know how many weeks. [Sebelius] reiterated what the president said the day before, and you'd think there was some new policy."
The L.A. Times reports the White House's decision to back off the public option could help them get the votes they need, overall, to pass health care in the Senate. "Moderate Democratic lawmakers are now more likely to back other parts of the evolving legislation, such as prohibiting insurers from denying coverage because of preexisting conditions or cutting off benefits to ill policy-holders, as well as making it easier for small businesses to cover workers. At the same time, the White House appeared to be making a calculation that liberals would go along with the legislation even if it lacked a provision they deemed indispensable."
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe profiles Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) and her pivotal role in trying to get health reform passed. She has not been subject to the rowdy town halls. In fact, the Globe writes, "Mainers are treating their popular senior senator with characteristic Yankee restraint. Public meetings are respectful, protesters virtually absent. Special-interest groups on the right and the left that have helped organize mass protests elsewhere are treating Snowe gingerly. Even President Obama mentioned how much he likes her at a town hall meeting he held in Portsmouth, N.H. - just close enough to Maine to get her attention without seeming too aggressive. No one, it seems, wants to risk offending the slight, genial senator who is one of the most influential voices in the Senate in deciding whether a health overhaul bill passes."
*** Apologies to posting that profile was of Susan Collins, not Olympia Snowe *** AP has a Q and A with Sen. Kent Conrad on co-ops. Conrad proposed the idea, which appears to be gaining steam again in the Senate. AP: "Interest groups disagree on whether such co-ops would have enough negotiating clout to help consumers without threatening private insurance companies." Roll Call looks at the pressure Blue Dogs are facing. They are confronted by constituents and having to dispel rabid rumors. “I’ve read the bill and it does not in any way promote euthanasia,” Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) told constituents. “It gives you the ability to sit down with your doctor and talk about end-of-life issues such as will-writing and hospice care, and the doctor will be reimbursed. Before, they weren’t reimbursed for that.” Roll Call also unveils its retirement list.
Guess where Mike Huckabee is this week: Iowa? New Hampshire? Try Israel and he's showing a split with the Obama admin on settlements .
Just asking, but who's the lobbying group here? House Minority Leader John Boehner wrote a letter to the head of PhRMA chastising the former congressman who runs the group has having "bowed to bullying by Democrats and sold out its members and the public." Boehner wrote to Billy Tauzin, “Appeasement rarely works as a conflict resolution strategy… When a bully asks for your lunch money, you may have no choice but to fork it over. But cutting a deal with the bully is a different story, particularly if the ‘deal’ means helping him steal others’ money as the price of protecting your own.” gave an interview to Vogue . And she says she's forgiven her husband. She also partly blamed the inflated egos politics creates in politicians. "Politicians become disconnected from the way everyone else lives in the world," she said. "I saw that from the very beginning. They'll say they need something, and 10 people want to give it to them. It's an ego boost, and it's easy to drink your own Kool-Aid." credited town hall protesters on Monday with having 'awakened' Americans to a contentious health care debate. 'That is a great thing,' Corker said of the conservative energy demonstrated in recent town halls opposing President Barack Obama’s plan for a health care overhaul during a town hall of his own at Lee University in Cleveland, Tennessee." held a job fair and attacked the stimulus .
FLORIDA : The Hill : "Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart said in a statement late Monday that he will not seek the appointment to replace Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.). Diaz-Balart was one of three people Gov. Charlie Crist (R) said he requested questionnaires from, but Diaz-Balart said he will not be submitting one." http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/rep.-diaz-balart-wont-seek-senate-seat-2009-08-18.html
"Crist (R) will name a replacement for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R) before Congress returns from August recess, choosing from among what is likely to be a pool of seven potential candidates," The Hill's Wilson reports. "Republican sources say former Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings, former Sen. Connie Mack (R), ex-Rep. Clay Shaw (R) and state Sen. Daniel Webster (R) could also be on the list, along with a surprise dark horse — former Crist chief of staff George LeMieux, now the chairman of a major Florida law firm."
Roll Call : "The others who received the application form were former Florida Secretary of State Jim Smith and former U.S. Attorney Bobby Martinez. Crist is expected to appoint a caretaker to fill the vacancy since he is running for the open seat in 2010."
NEVADA : Given the scandals hitting Sen. John Ensign and Gov. Jim Gibbons, Politics Daily’s Jill Lawrence wonders if the Nevada GOP can be saved. “A week ago, given the problems of Sen. John Ensign and Gov. Jim Gibbons, the answer was probably not in time for the 2010 elections. This week the picture is much brighter because of one man: U.S. District Judge Brian Sandoval. Sandoval, a former state legislator, attorney general and Nevada Gaming Commission chairman, the first Hispanic federal judge in his state, now in his mid-40s, said late last week that he will step down Sept. 15 from his lifetime job on the bench. There's little doubt he plans to run for governor, taking on Gibbons and others in a primary if the field doesn't clear.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd Kay Bailey Hutchison is depending on crossover Democratic support to defeat incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R) in their gubernatorial primary race.
But Todd Harris, a GOP strategist working for Team KBH, pushes back on the idea they need these crossovers to win the Republican primary. “The beginning, middle, and end of our strategy is to appeal to every GOP voter in Texas by talking about Kay’s conservative record and Rick Perry’s history of increasing taxes and growing state government," he emails First Read. "If there is going to be a Democrat crossover vote, it will probably be for Perry because of his liberal record on taxes, spending and increasing the size, scope and reach of government.”
Harris adds, “Besides, Perry has a lot of Democrat friends left over from his days as Texas Chairman of Al Gore’s presidential campaign.”
So it begins in the Lone Star State...
From NBC's Scott Foster
Police on the scene were standing right next to the gentleman and were keeping a close eye on him. He's well behind a security barrier outside the convention center in a crowd of protesters.
A second man, who appeared to be interviewing some of the protesters, also had a pistol strapped to his leg. He was also being watched by police.
To reiterate, there appears to be NO CAUSE FOR SERIOUS CONCERN from local authorities on scene.
*** UPDATE ***
Bringing loaded firearms to any Presidential event endangers all in attendance. Even though our weak national and state gun laws may allow this dangerous behavior, we should use a little common sense. Individuals carrying loaded weapons at these events require constant attention from police and Secret Service officers, thus stretching their protective efforts even thinner. The possibility that these weapons might be grabbed or stolen or accidently mishandled increases the risks of serious injury or death to all in attendance.
The National Rifle Association and other 'gun rights' groups need to send a message about 'gun responsibilities' to their members and all gun owners. Loaded weapons at political forums endanger all involved, distract law enforcement, and end up stifling debate. Presidential protesters need to leave their firearms at home -- no exceptions."
From NBC's Scott Foster President Obama will address nearly 13,000 Veterans of Foreign Wars delegates at the group's 110th national convention.
It's expected the president will praise the service of U.S. troops fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, but also make some remarks on health-care reform.
A group of roughly 80-100 peaceful -- but loud -- protesters who appear to mostly support some sort of health-care reform have gathered across the street from the convention center.
According to a statement from the VFW, "Almost 13,000 VFW and Ladies Auxiliary delegates will represent the 2.1 million-member organization at the weeklong convention. Their mission will be to approve new national priorities to guide the organization's advocacy efforts in Congress on behalf of the nation's 23.5 million veterans, 2.2 million service members and their families. Advocacy issues include military and veterans' healthcare, benefits, and Quality of Life programs, as well as military readiness and national and homeland security."
After delivering his remarks, Obama returns to Washington.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Chuck Grassley (R) said he'd vote against any health-care reform bill coming out of the committee unless it has wide support from Republicans -- even if the legislation contains EVERYTHING Grassley wants.
"I am negotiating for Republicans," he said. "If I can't negotiate something that gets more than four Republicans, I'm not a good negotiator."
When NBC's Chuck Todd, in a follow-up question on the show, asked the Iowa Republican if he'd vote against what Grassley might consider to be a "good deal" -- i.e., gets everything he asks for from Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus (D) -- Grassley replied, "It isn't a good deal if I can't sell my product to more Republicans."
In short, Grassley says he's willing to walk away from legislation in which he gets everything he wants. Over to you, Max Baucus...
From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
GOVERNORS
SENATE
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg The public omission? Are we the only ones who aren’t surprised by today’s headlines -- in today’s New York Times , Washington Post , and elsewhere -- that the Obama administration isn’t 100% wedded to public/government option? Truth is, this is where we’ve been headed all along. It began months ago when President Obama refused to make a public health insurance option a non-negotiable part of any reform. But over the weekend, the administration was no longer being so coy about its intentions. Obama said this at his town hall on Saturday in Colorado: “The public option, where we have it or we don’t have it, is not the entirety of health-care reform.” Then the president wrote a 1,200-word New York Times op-ed on the health-care debate, and it didn’t mention the words “public option” in it ANYWHERE. Finally, HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said on Sunday that the public option was “not the essential element” for reform and raised the prospect of an insurance co-op.
*** Barack and Baucus: Of course, perhaps the biggest clue about the White House’s intentions came in Montana on Friday, when Obama mentioned the name of Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus 10 times. To us, this was just more evidence that the eventual legislation is going to look A WHOLE LOT more like the Senate Finance bill (whenever that comes out) than any other committee’s legislation. And all signs are pointing to the Finance bill having a co-op instead of a public/government option. We point you to a back-and-forth last week between the White House press corps and Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, when he was asked what PhRMA got in return for its $80 billion in pledged cuts. Gibbs wouldn't say, but said the Finance Committee bill would reflect the deal. No wonder Charlie Rangel was so grumpy on "Meet the Press" yesterday. Reality is setting in for some of these House Dems that their efforts, while admirable, are not the be-all-end-all of health care.
*** Messina pushes back (a tad): Deputy White House chief of staff Jim Messina -- who just happens to be Baucus’ old chief of staff -- sent a message yesterday to some leading progressive/liberal leaders, arguing that the media were overhyping any position switch on a public option. “Nothing has changed,” he said. “POTUS has always said that what is essential is that health insurance reform must lower costs, ensure that there are affordable options for all Americans and increase choice and competition. He believes the public option is the best way to achieve those goals.” But read that last sentence carefully: The White House is suggesting that a public option isn’t the ONLY WAY to achieve those goals, just the "best way." Another way, some believe, is via a non-profit co-op.
*** Explaining the co-op: So just what is a co-op? Is it like a condo association, except with more rules? A credit union? A farm co-op? Blue Cross, Blue Shield? Land O Lakes Butter? Ace Hardware? Those are just SOME of the comparisons proponents have tried to use. The problem is that there just isn't an easy explanation as to what the co-op is, and that's potentially problematic in this political environment. Why? Because as we've learned: In politics, when something isn't defined pro-actively very well, opponents can sometimes define it first. We know what it's NOT supposed to be, and that's a government-run insurance program, a la Medicare. So what is it? Here's the best explanations we've come up with. For starters, a REAL world example is Group Health in Seattle , where individuals can join, as well as businesses. Group Health’s physicians are paid a salary and can earn bonuses of up to 20% for high-quality performance. Unlike most doctors, who are paid by the visit or procedure, they have little incentive to churn patients through and order unnecessary tests and operations.
*** Conrad’s words: So, on its best day, the overall goal of a co-op is to weaken the fee-for-service system that dominates the health care industry. Also, read this co-op explanation DIRECTLY from Kent Conrad , who is its biggest advocate on the Senate Finance Committee. "We have seen cooperatives thrive in this country, from the rural cooperatives we are familiar with in North Dakota to major companies including Land O’ Lakes, Ace Hardware, and the outdoor-retailer REI. And we have a working model with Group Health, a Washington state-based health care cooperative with more than 500,000 members."
*** At the VFW convention: Expect President Obama to talk about health-care reform briefly when he addresses the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Phoenix at 1:00 pm ET. Of course, he'll also discuss national security and foreign policy. But we're told not to expect any new policy announcements regarding Iraq or Afghanistan.
*** Battle for the governor’s mansion: Two weeks ago, we took a stab at the 2010 House races, and last week we examined next year’s Senate contests. Today, we take a look at the 2010 gubernatorial races. While they won’t determine control of Congress, these contests will play a huge role in the politically charged redistricting process that will begin in 2011. Right now, Democrats have a 28-22 advantage over Republicans in the control of state governorships. In 2010, a whopping 37 states will hold gubernatorial contests -- 19 held by Democrats and 18 by Republicans. More importantly, due to term limits or retirements, about half of these are open seats, meaning excellent opportunities for the other party to take control of the governor’s mansion. Republicans have great shots at picking up seats in red states like Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming, while top Democratic targets are in California, Hawaii, and Minnesota.
*** Deeds vs. McDonnell: But let’s not forget about the two gubernatorial races this year -- in New Jersey and Virginia -- which take place in less than 80 days from now. And in Virginia, a brand-new Washington Post poll shows Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D) by seven percentage points, 47%-40%, and even MORE among likely voters. Perhaps the main reason why McDonnell is ahead: He’s almost tied with Deeds in Northern Virginia. As Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, and Barack Obama proved, a Democrat needs to win NoVA by at least a 60%-40% split to carry Virginia statewide. According to the poll, McDonnell also is overperforming among independents. But this could very well be the most interesting finding in the entire poll: 34% said that Obama’s endorsement of Deeds would make them more likely to vote for the Democrat, versus an equal 34% who said it would make them less likely to vote for him; 30% said it made no difference. It suggests that Obama’s pull in the swing state of Virginia isn’t as strong as it was a year ago…
*** No one’s paying attention -- yet: But here’s another number in the poll that shouldn’t be missed: 51% (a majority) say they aren’t following the race very closely or at all. By comparison, in Sept. ’05, 59% said they were following the Kaine-Kilgore match-up closely and in August '01, 60% said they were following Warner-Earley pretty closely. Deeds also should feel pretty good about the fact that the state's three leading Dems have a majority approving of their job, starting with Mark Warner at 67%, Tim Kaine at 56%, and Jim Webb at 51%. The Kaine number is slightly surprising, since he's had to be so partisan as DNC chair. So to stay over 50% in a swing state is a pretty good feat. And don't miss the party I.D. question toward the end of the survey. Just 27% of likely voters were self-I.D. Democrats -- the lowest recorded number on the Post's chart dating back to 1989. Could this be an indication that Deeds has done VERY little to motivate his base? So while the president may be seen as a net neutral player in the polling, his popularity with the Dem base will mean Deeds will be leaning on him heavily. By the way, the Republican self-I.D. number of 34% among likely voters is the highest recorded number on this Post chart since Oct. '05, just before Election Day. Clearly, the Republican base is excited about an opportunity to win.
*** Move over Specter vs. Sestak: Today, deep in the heart of Texas, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) officially announces her bid for governor with a five-day, 19-stop “Texas Can Do Better” tour in a race that could be the marquee primary race of 2010. She kicks things off in La Marque, TX at 9:00 am ET, and will take a shot at her primary opponent, incumbent Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R). “Let me start by saying this about Rick Perry: He’s a dedicated public servant; I know he loves Texas,” she will say, according to advanced excerpts of her remarks. ”But now he’s trying to stay too long -- 14 years, maybe longer. And after ten Perry years, where are we? Property taxes? Highest in the country. State debt? Doubled.” Also, the more moderate Hutchison will call for expanding the GOP beyond its base. “For the last decade, the Republican Party in Texas has been shrinking. We’re losing elections we used to win easily. In Austin, we’ve gone from 88 seats in the House to 76 -- just two away from losing the Texas house. As Republicans, we can continue down the road of shrinking majorities. Or we can inspire, unite, and grow our party.”
*** KBH’s crossover move: To win this primary, Hutchison is counting on something that isn't easy for ANY Republican to count on in a primary: crossover Dem support. Hutchison needs to hope that enough Dems and indies are convinced that the winner of the GOP primary will be governor that they'll participate. But what could hurt that strategy? If enough Dems start believing that Perry is actually beatable in a general. To date, by the way, Texas Democrats have not been blown away by ex-Bush administration Australia Ambassador Tom Schieffer's campaign (yes, he's the brother of CBS' Bob Schieffer). On paper, he looks like the perfect candidate, but it could be Hutchison is sucking up resources Schieffer could count on if Perry were the perceived foe.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 78 days
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“Racing to regain control of the health-care debate, two top administration officials signaled Sunday that the White House may be willing to jettison a controversial government-run insurance plan favored by liberals,” The Washington Post front-pages. “As President Obama finishes a western swing intended to bolster support for his signature policy initiative, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius opened the door to a compromise on a public option, saying it is ‘not the essential element’ of comprehensive reform. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said on CBS's ‘Face the Nation’ that Obama ‘will be satisfied’ if the private insurance market has ‘choice and competition.’”
The New York Times sums up the politics here: “For Mr. Obama, giving up on the public plan would have risks and rewards. The reward is that he could punch a hole in Republican arguments that he wants a ‘government takeover’ of health care and possibly win some Republican votes. The risk is that he could alienate liberal Democrats, whose support he will also need to pass a bill.”
The AP : “The shift leaves open a chance for compromise with Republicans that probably would enrage Obama's liberal supporters but could deliver a much-needed victory on a top domestic priority."
Here’s President Obama’s op-ed on health-care reform in Sunday’s New York Times.
The White House has launched a Spanish language-version of WhiteHouse.gov/RealityCheck.
Speaking of fact-checks… As we’ve asked before, why does the president continue to say, “If you like your health care coverage, you can keep it”? Nobody seems to be able to prove the president's proclamation true. Here's a Washington Post fact-check on the claim.
CONTINUED >>
At GOPAC, Republicans had a pep in their step . "The conference's two top speakers, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Minnesota GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty, spoke optimistically of a Republican rebound pegged to an overreach by the President and Democrats in Congress. 'It appears that President Obama is making great progress on climate change, he is changing the political climate in the country back to Republican,' Pawlenty said in his speech to the group. Despite the enthusiasm, some of those charged with leading a Republican comeback recognize that the drop in the president's approval rating and the surge of grassroots energy and anger of display at recent town halls across the country is an opening that the party hasn't yet been able to rush through."
"As chairman of the House Republican Health Care Solutions Group, Rep. Roy Blunt, R-Springfield, knows a thing or two about health care. But some of what he knows just isn’t true," the St. Louis Post-Dispatch editorial page writes. "'I’m 59,' Mr. Blunt said last week during a meeting with Post-Dispatch reporters and editors. 'In either Canada or Great Britain, if I broke my hip, I couldn’t get it replaced.' We fact-checked that. At least 63 percent of hip replacements performed in Canada last year and two-thirds of those done in England were on patients age 65 or older. More than 1,200 in Canada were done on people older than 85.
…especially in this economy. "So far this cycle, 30 candidates have spent at least $100,000 of their own money on their campaigns for House or Senate. That is nearly twice as many as the 16 who had done so at this point in the 2008 election cycle. The Hill’s analysis of self-funding in first and second quarter financial reports also found that 15 candidates have already ponied up $200,000, while just seven had done so two years ago."
FLORIDA: "Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) reportedly requested applications from three possible Senate appointees Friday, including Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R), as he considers whom to choose as a temporary placeholder when Sen. Mel Martinez (R) resigns."
NEW JERSEY: New Jersey Sen. Robert Menendez’s (D) has said, “Every election is personal,” but the current gubernatorial race is, for him, especially so. Menendez was the subject of a 2006 corruption probe, spearheaded by none other than Republican candidate (and then-U.S. Attorney) Chris Christie. Menendez alleges that the investigation was politically motivated . Although “Christie’s name appeared on a federal Attorney General’s list of U.S. Attorneys slated for firing,” his name came off the list “after information was leaked in the middle of a contentious Senate campaign” that Christie was probing Menendez. Menendez eked out a victory over Tom Kean Jr. in 2006. Speaking Friday at a Corzine campaign event, Menendez cited the recent testimony by Karl Rove that Rove “had political conversations with Christie while the latter” was U.S. Attorney. “Clearly the Rove information under oath creates very serious concerns about the political process that took place at the Justice Department,” Menendez said. “To be honest with you, I think more needs to be done.” PENNSYLVANIA: Liberal Democrats at Netroots Nation in Pittsburgh overwhelmingly prefer Joe Sestak to Arlen Specter, according to results from a straw poll at the event. Sestak bested Specter 46%-10% among the crowd with 33% undecided.
THE WEEK AHEAD: August hasn't exactly been slow. Expect more town halls; Obama out West, then meets with Egypt's Mubarak and NASCAR's Jimmie Johnson; 2012 watch: Pawlenty to Florida; Birthdays: Bill Clinton, Eleanor Rosalynn Smith Carter; and Meet the Press.
For our mailbox, submit your questions for next week in the comments section below. We might pick yours.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama's town hall today in Montana was essentially a replay of the one he held in New Hampshire earlier this week. He started off by plugging his stimulus. Then he made his pitch that health-care reform would benefit those with insurance. And, in the Q&A, he received eight or nine questions from either supporters or polite critics -- a far different sight than we've seen at many of those congressional town-hall meetings.
The first critical question Obama got was from Randy, an NRA member, who was skeptical about how Congress was going to pay for health-care reform. "You are absolutely right that I can't cover another 46 million for free," Obama said. "So we're going to have to find some resources." The money, he added, would come from improvements to the health system and from tax increases on Americans who make more than $250,000 per year.
The president concluded, "Randy, I appreciate your question and the way in which you asked it."
The other critical question Obama received came from a gentleman who sells health insurance. He asked why the president was vilifying health insurance companies.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
But it does appear that some Republicans who are raising concerns about end-of-life provisions in the House health-care bill -- like Chuck Grassley, John Boehner , and Thaddeus McCotter -- voted for a similar provision that was contained in the 2003 Medicare prescription-drug bill, which passed Congress and was signed into law by George W. Bush .
Here's the provision in that 2003 bill , per Time magazine's Amy Sullivan (emphasis mine):
The covered services are: evaluating the beneficiary's need for pain and symptom management, including the individual's need for hospice care; counseling the beneficiary with respect to end-of-life issues and care options, and advising the beneficiary regarding advanced care planning. Payment for such services equals the amount established for similar services under the physician fee schedule, excluding the practice expense component. The provision would apply to consultation services provided by a hospice program on or after January 1, 2005.
Well, as Sullivan and Plum Line's Greg Sargent point out, Grassley , Boehner, and McCotter all voted for the 2003 legislation.
But if Boehner was fine to vote for that 2003 provision isn't that still -- borrowing Boehner's own logic about the House health-care bill -- sending us "down a treacherous path toward government-encouraged euthanasia," as he has said?
From NBC's Mark Murray
The New York Times traces the evolution of the false "death panel" charge on health care. "[T]he rumor ... was not born of anonymous e-mailers, partisan bloggers or stealthy cyberconspiracy theorists. Rather, it has a far more mainstream provenance, openly emanating months ago from many of the same pundits and conservative media outlets that were central in defeating President Bill Clinton’s health care proposals 16 years ago, including the editorial board of The Washington Times, the American Spectator magazine and Betsy McCaughey, whose 1994 health care critique made her a star of the conservative movement (and ultimately, New York’s lieutenant governor)."
Speaking of the Washington Times , it reports that "Dr. Ezekiel J. Emanuel, the White House official targeted by Sarah Palin and other conservatives as an advocate for health care rationing and 'death panels,' said Thursday his 'thinking has evolved' on the need to decide who gets treated and who does not. 'When I began working in the health policy area about 20 years ago ... I thought we would definitely have to ration care, that there was a need to make a decision and deny people care,' said Dr. Emanuel, a health care adviser to President Obama in the Office of Management and Budget, during a phone interview. 'I think that over the last five to seven years ... I've come to the conclusion that in our system we are spending way more money than we need to, a lot of it on unnecessary care,' he said. 'If we got rid of that care we would have absolutely no reason to even consider rationing except in a few cases.'"
The latest prominent Republican to repeat the debunked charge: Rudy Giuliani .
Paul Krugman argues that Obama -- who thought he could avoid the political wars of the 1990s -- is finding out that it's easier said than done. "Sure enough, President Obama is now facing the same kind of opposition that President Bill Clinton had to deal with: an enraged right that denies the legitimacy of his presidency, that eagerly seizes on every wild rumor manufactured by the right-wing media complex."
Sticking with health care, Bloomberg News reports that 3,300 lobbyists have lined up to work on the issue of health care. "That’s six lobbyists for each of the 535 members of the House and Senate, according to Senate records, and three times the number of people registered to lobby on defense."
The Wall Street Journal writes about a town hall held by conservative Indiana Democrat Joe Donnelly. "The anger that has settled around similar events in other states never hit Mr. Donnelly, who deftly parried complaints about too much government with questions about which entitlements the audience would be willing to sacrifice. 'If [reform] doesn't work, it screws up an awful lot,' he said. 'But the other thing I want to ask is, of those with Medicare, how many want to give it up? That's why we need some kind of reform.'"
And sources have told a local North Carolina news outlet that John Edwards will admit he's the father of his ex-mistress's 18-month-old baby. NBC News has not been able to confirm that story.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Sen. Ben Cardin 's town hall here had it all -- shouting, shoving, at least one threat of pressing charges, two confrontations on race, people walking around with Obama-as-Hitler signs, and even a birther.
And get this: the Cardin staff says it wasn't even as tough as Monday's town hall at Towson University.
Misinformation, anger and frustration -- bordering on desperation for many -- were rampant, from accusations that health-care reform would kill off senior citizens; suicide would be legal; reform would lead to socialism, rationing, free health care for illegal immigrants, management of doctors’ salaries; reform would dictate where doctors would do their residencies; and so on.
It’s the kind of thing heard across the country this August in Congressional town halls. Even though these town halls have been focused on health care, the frustrations are clearly about more than that for these conservatives who didn’t vote for Obama and would never vote for Obama. They are irritated with the direction of the country after the 2008 election, with a man as president they didn't vote for and a Congress ruled by Democrats. They are angry about being out of power and having -- because of being in the minority -- what they feel is no say. And they get their information from limited sources -- Fox News and their friends.
“I do not like the way our country is going,” said Lucille Shaw, who said she is a registered nurse from Hagerstown and a registered Democrat, who did not vote for Barack Obama. She voted for John McCain , but said she “probably” would have supported Hillary Clinton . “I think we're going totally toward socialism. I do not want to be under socialism.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Newt Gingrich said that President Obama should "calm down and slow down" with his push to pass health-care legislation. "If President Obama would calm down and slow down, go to the country and genuinely listen, he could introduce a new bill by October 1," he said.
Most of Gingrich’s four-hour presentation today outlined his plans for budget reform. He did, however, save time to talk about the health-care debate playing out in congressional districts around the country.
Gingrich said that legislators' canceling town-hall meetings because of aggressive health care protests -- and even some death threats -- is "exactly wrong."
"You need the town-hall meetings," Gingrich said. "You need to hear what people are saying. If they have the wrong information, give them the right information. If they're hostile, let them be hostile."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Yet, one could argue, it was the DNC that encouraged this storyline with its Web video, "Enough of the Mob."
The video is full of the most incendiary images from some of the town halls, including Rep. Frank Kratovil hanging in effigy, Devil horns on an image of Rep. Lloyd Doggett, and protestors chanting and holding up signs. A dour sounding announcer proclaims: "The right-wing extremist Republican base is back. ... Now desperate Republicans and their well-funded allies are organizing angry mobs -- just like they did during the election. Their goal: Destroy President Obama."
It further charges that Republicans have "called out the mob," since "they have no plan for moving our country forward." The ad ends with: "Call the Republican Party. Tell them you've had enough of the mob.
First Read reached out to the DNC, which sent along the following response: "We have said all along that a large majority of Americans want a civil discussion about how to move health insurance reform forward because soaring costs are hurting their families and businesses and they understand that we need reform now," DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan said. "But the media has focused on an vocal, venomous minority who are the most disruptive at events and suggested they are representative of what's going on in the country. In the grassroots, there are thousands of town halls, community meetings and discussions between neighbors over the backyard fence or at the kitchen table where folks are talking about how to move forward to get reform done, not shouting one another down. That's the story that's not being told."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The communication offers no further specifics.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama's health-care plans, Conservatives for Patient Rights, says it will be running print and TV ads greeting him when he visits Montana tomorrow and Colorado on Saturday.
Here's the print ad . And below is the TV one. They criticize the public/government option to compete against private insurers.
Conservatives for Patient Rights is headed by Rick Scott, who was ousted as the head of Columbia/HCA over fraud charges. As the Washington Post reports, Columbia/HCA eventually pleaded guilty for overcharging state and federal health plans, paying $1.7 BILLION in fines.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Mark Murray Hillary Clinton was asked by a New York Times correspondent about her well-publicized reaction to a question she thought she was getting on husband Bill Clinton's views on a policy matter.
But she gave a NON-answer.
Question from the NYT reporter: "Can you reflect on what you have accomplished, and how you measure that. And then the second part of my question is connected, and maybe I'm asking it at my own peril, but I'd like to bring you back to the comments you made in Congo, 'My husband is not the secretary of state, I am,' that has gotten more attention than anything else you've said here. What was going through your mind when you said it, and do you regret it?"
Here was Clinton's full answer: "Well, first of all, let me say that this has been an absolutely wonderful trip. I'm grateful to all of the countries that received me and my delegation. This was a very important trip that both President Obama and I wanted to make early in the administration -- to send a very clear message that the Obama administration is committed to developing an even stronger and closer relationship with not just the governments but also the people of Africa. We are near the end of this trip and it is only appropriate to be here in Liberia, where our relationship goes back so many years. And at every stop we have emphasized the importance of fulfilling what President Obama said in his historic speech in Ghana, the future of Africa is up to the Africans, just like the future of Liberia is up to the Liberians. But all of us know that given the conflicts and the challenges that have often prevented the African people from realizing their full potential, the U.S. stands ready to be a partner and a friend in helping to overcome the obstacles and create the environment for the kind of development that President Sirleaf is working on so hard here.
She continued: "So I've had a great time on this trip. I opened this newspaper, and I think it looks like she's having a great time and from my perspective the most important part of this trip are the relationships that we have built, the commitments that we have discussed, the problems that we have honestly explored. We have not shied away from raising the difficult problems that exist and stand in the way of the people of Africa realizing their potential. Uh, and I think that will stand the test of time, and I'm very proud of the trip that we have made together."
Meanwhile, when the New York reporters asked Bill Clinton about his wife's reaction from earlier this week, he replied, "I haven't seen it," the New York Post reports. (Hat tip: JMart .)
From NBC's Mark Murray Politico reports, a strange-bedfellows alliance -- consisting of the American Medical Association, Families USA, the Federation of American Hospitals, PhRMA, and SEIU -- is launching a $12 million advertising blitz supporting President Obama's plans to overhaul the health-care system.
"The group is likely to be the biggest spender in support of health reform. The campaign will serve as a counterweight to the critics at town meetings, which are getting saturation news coverage while Congress is out of town," Politico says. "In a reversal from former President Bill Clinton’s 1993-94 health-care debacle, the group’s campaign is likely to mean that White House supporters keep the upper hand on the airwaves."
Meanwhile, the liberal-leaning group Health Care for America Now is now expanding its TV ad to run in the congressional districts represented by Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire (PA), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD), and Rick Boucher (VA). The first two of those three are Blue Dog members. The ad also will run statewide in New Mexico (Democratic Sen. Jeff Bingaman ) and Delaware (Democratic Sen. Tom Carper ).
Finally, as we mentioned earlier this morning, the National Republican Congressional Committee has a TV ad hitting Wisconsin Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen on health care.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd Obama worked to knock down during the presidential contest? Well, now the Obama White House is sending out its own viral email -- from David Axelrod -- to counter what it sees as the misinformation in the health-care debate.
Axelrod's email lists eight ways health-care reform would help those with and without health-care insurance; eight myths about the reform; and eight reasons why American needs reform right now.
Axelrod writes:
Unfortunately, some of the old tactics we know so well are back — even the viral emails that fly unchecked and under the radar, spreading all sorts of lies and distortions.
As President Obama said at the town hall in New Hampshire, "where we do disagree, let's disagree over things that are real, not these wild misrepresentations that bear no resemblance to anything that's actually been proposed."
So let’s start a chain email of our own. At the end of my email, you’ll find a lot of information about health insurance reform, distilled into 8 ways reform provides security and stability to those with or without coverage, 8 common myths about reform and 8 reasons we need health insurance reform now.
Right now, someone you know probably has a question about reform that could be answered by what’s below. So what are you waiting for? Forward this email.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg What we saw yesterday : While the focus of all these town-hall meetings across the country has been on health care, what has become clear is that the anger and frustration in the debate is about much more than that. Yesterday, one of us attended Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D) town hall in Hagerstown, MD, which is in a county McCain won but a state Obama overwhelmingly carried. The town hall had it all -- shouting, shoving, at least one threat of pressing charges, two confrontations on race outside the town hall and people walking around with Obama-as-Hitler signs. At least the three-quarters of the crowd didn't vote for Obama and said they would never vote for him. They were irritated with the direction of the country after the 2008 election, with a man as president they didn't vote for, and with a Congress ruled by Democrats. They were angry with being out of power and having -- because of being in the minority -- what they felt was no say.
*** LaRouchies, Glenn Beck disciples, and Democrats -- oh my : But there was no indication that these folks were so-called “Astroturf” grassroots supporters. There were many who were affiliated with the tea parties and even LaRouchies likening Obama to Hitler. One LaRouche organizer said he was there to "cause some trouble." There also were some Obama supporters, who came, they said, because of being frustrated at what they'd seen on TV and were encouraged to come out by either MoveOn or Organizing for America. For many of the frustrated, there was real desperation in their voices -- the belief, almost to the brink of tears, that the country is going to the pits. They are the true believers. They were also big-time Fox News viewers and Glenn Beck disciples, hammering home the perception that this is where these people get their news, er, information. One mother-daughter combo -- unprompted -- enthusiastically boasted, "Fox rules!" "It's all we ever watch!"
*** Some Republicans say -- "Stop" : And now some prominent Republicans are pushing back against the rhetoric at these town halls. Said Dan Senor on TODAY this morning: “Republicans run the risk of overplaying their hand, and they themselves beings associated with very extreme charges and extreme rhetoric. And that can backfire.” Adds former Bush speechwriter David Frum : "It's not enough for conservatives to repudiate violence, as some are belatedly beginning to do. We have to tone down the militant and accusatory rhetoric. If Barack Obama really were a fascist, really were a Nazi, really did plan death panels to kill the old and infirm, really did contemplate overthrowing the American constitutional republic—if he were those things, somebody should shoot him. But he is not. He is an ambitious, liberal president who is spending too much money and emitting too much debt. His health-care ideas are too ambitious and his climate plans are too interventionist. The president can be met and bested on the field of reason—but only by people who are themselves reasonable." Also, the White House is now responding to another viral email, this one on health care.
*** Chuck Grassley said what? Not normally known for trying to start partisan wild fires, Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley tiptoed into the death panel/living will controversy yesterday. Now Grassley may have been trying to have it both ways, bringing up the topic but by using "counseling" on "end of life," he wasn't acting like some fire-breather and he was coming closer to what's ACTUALLY in the House bill than some conservatives are saying. But the left is not happy with any of this chatter, and the coverage of Grassley's comments might be enough to scuttle the prospect of negotiating a bipartisan deal on health care. As for Grassley, word is he realizes that even if he gets everything he wants, he can't bring any more than the two Republicans already talking with him (Snowe and Enzi). And if that's the case, then Grassley -- who is up for re-election himself in 2010 -- can't afford to vote against conservatives, so maybe this was his way of finding a public out from the bipartisan talks. By the way, speaking of the Senate Finance Committee, how will the left greet the news that the White House seems to promising BEHIND THE SCENES that the Senate Finance Committee is where the CORE of the bill will be written?
*** “I said , 'Thanks but no thanks to those death panels'" : Speaking of death panels and living wills… On her Facebook page, ex-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has defended her debunked claim about the “death panels” that would occur under health-care reform. “Yesterday President Obama responded to my statement that Democratic health-care proposals would lead to rationed care; that the sick, the elderly, and the disabled would suffer the most under such rationing; and that under such a system these ‘unproductive’ members of society could face the prospect of government bureaucrats determining whether they deserve health care,” she said. “The provision that President Obama refers to is Section 1233 of HR 3200, entitled ‘Advance Care Planning Consultation.’ With all due respect, it’s misleading for the president to describe this section as an entirely voluntary provision that simply increases the information offered to Medicare recipients.”
*** Murkowski vs. Palin : But Obama isn’t the only person who disagrees with Palin on this. So does Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R). "It does us no good to incite fear in people by saying that there's these end-of-life provisions, these death panels," Murkowski said, per the Anchorage Daily News . "Quite honestly, I'm so offended at that terminology because it absolutely isn't [in the bill]. There is no reason to gin up fear in the American public by saying things that are not included in the bill." Of course, this story is as much about Murkowski sticking it to Palin (who defeated Murkowski’s father for governor in 2006) as it over exaggerations in the health-care debate.
*** Health care and 2008 : As we watch the town-hall story continue to play out, one irony is how the McCain campaign and the right never really challenged Obama's health-care plans during the general election. Their attacks instead focused on experience, Bill Ayers, taxes, and "spreading the wealth." Which reminds us of this reality: The issues that get debated in a presidential election aren't always the ones that consume a president's first couple of years in office. Just think back to the 2000 campaign -- there were few clashes over national security, which became the dominant issue after 9/11. Indeed, a look back at the four presidential and vice presidential debates in last year’s general election, there were 21 total questions asked on the economy, 15 questions on national security issues (outside of Iraq and Afghanistan), eight questions on energy/climate change, six questions on Iraq/Afghanistan, five questions on health care, three questions about the tone of the campaign, two questions on abortion, two questions on education, two questions on entitlement reform, and one question on gay marriage.
*** Netroots Nation : Here’s another flashback from the ’07-‘08 presidential campaign: Almost two years ago to the day, Hillary Clinton found herself under a little fire -- from Barack Obama, John Edwards, and liberal bloggers -- at the YearlyKos convention over her answer about taking money from lobbyists. And here’s another irony: Tonight, her husband Bill Clinton delivers the keynote address for the same confab of liberal blogosphere (although it now has a different name, Netroots Nation). Some of the panels today for the beginning of the three-day Netroots Nation: “A Warming Web: The Blogosphere and Climate Change,” “They Myth of Post-Racial America,” “Scaling Obama: Applying the Online Campaigning Lessons of ’08 to State and Local Races,” and “Staying On Top of Congress’ Shenanigans.”
*** Where’s the release? Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office asks this question: On May 5th, the Obama administration claimed that the stimulus would save or create 600,000 jobs. Today marks, it says, the 100th day. So where is the press release announcing the 600,000 jobs? As many of us learned, they aren't tracking actual jobs created, it's a statistical estimate and at this point we're guessing the White House knows they need actual numbers.
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“In pursuing his proposed overhaul of the health care system, President Obama has consistently presented himself as aloof from the legislative fray, merely offering broad principles. Prominent among them is the creation of a strong, government-run insurance plan to compete with private insurers and press for lower costs,” the New York Times writes. “Behind the scenes, however, Mr. Obama and his advisers have been quite active, sometimes negotiating deals with a degree of cold-eyed political realism potentially at odds with the president’s rhetoric.”
The AP looks at who the health-care protesters are: "Many of those raising their voices and fists at the town halls have never been politically active. Their frustration was born earlier this year with government bailouts and big spending bills, then found an outlet in the anti-tax Tea Parties in April and has simmered in the punishing recession. In some cases, it's been nurtured by talk radio and Glenn Beck's 9-12 Project, which seeks to unify Americans around nine values such as honesty, hope and sincerity and 12 principles… There is an element of organized opposition, just as on the other side unions and Obama's political organization are trying to turn out supporters to town halls and other events. The insurance industry lobby, America's Health Insurance Plans, is encouraging workers to attend town hall events to make their views known. So is the group Conservatives for Patients' Rights."
Politico’s Roger Simon : “The White House also needs the opponents of health care reform to look as nutty and extreme as possible. Most Americans are repelled by extremism. Obama’s opponents want to call his reforms ‘Hitler-like’? Fine. That helps Obama.”
Roll Call : "The White House acknowledged Wednesday that President Barack Obama misspoke Tuesday when he said AARP had endorsed health care reform legislation. Obama, who made the comment at a town-hall meeting in Portsmouth, N.H., meant to say that AARP was generally supportive of ‘comprehensive reform’ and backs a deal between drugmakers and the Senate Finance Committee for the industry to provide $80 billion to fund legislation and drug purchases under Medicare, according to White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs."
CONTINUED >>
After Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer penned a USA Today op-ed on the health-care debate, House Minority Leader John Boehner writes his own op-ed in the paper . “The backlash isn’t fabricated, and those expressing vocal opposition are not ‘un-American,’ as Speaker Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer suggested on this page Monday. To the contrary, it is real, and it exists for a single, simple reason: The more the American people learn about the Democrats’ health care bill, the less they like it.”
“No one condones the actions of those who disrupt public events. Every citizen should have the opportunity to express his or her views in an orderly and respectful way. But those in Washington who dismiss the frustration of the American people and call it ‘manufactured’ do so at their own peril.”
Sen. Ben Cardin's "75-minute town hall, held in a conservative stronghold in the state, was peppered with boos, jeers and catcalls , though a minority of attendees who support health reform efforts made it a bit calmer than past events in Laurel and Towson. Officials estimated up to 600 citizens, most of whom appeared to be opposed to healthcare reform, lined up outside the theater. Some audience members said they arrived as early as 8:30 a.m. Cardin remained nonplussed throughout the forum, even as constituents sometimes screamed at him, drowning out his explanations. The senator stayed an extra 15 minutes and took several extra questions, but appeared to win over few listeners." downplayed the ongoing bipartisan Finance Committee talks, saying his decision to stay at the table allows him to keep his constituents and fellow GOP Senators informed. Grassley told town-hall attendees that he suspects President Barack Obama may not be interested in a consensus after all, which would render the Finance talks moot. 'I don’t even think it’s right for me to call [the Finance discussions] negotiations,' Grassley said, inside a steamy community center packed with a standing-room-only crowd of about 350 people. 'We’re talking… I kind of feel like I’m a finger in the dike.'"
CONTINUED >>
This might be a storyline that never goes away. The Washington Post writes, ”Cheney's disappointment with the former president surfaced recently in one of the informal conversations he is holding to discuss the book with authors, diplomats, policy experts and past colleagues. By habit, he listens more than he talks, but Cheney broke form when asked about his regrets. ‘In the second term, he felt Bush was moving away from him,’ said a participant in the recent gathering, describing Cheney's reply. ‘He said Bush was shackled by the public reaction and the criticism he took. Bush was more malleable to that. The implication was that Bush had gone soft on him, or rather Bush had hardened against Cheney's advice. He'd showed an independence that Cheney didn't see coming. It was clear that Cheney's doctrine was cast-iron strength at all times -- never apologize, never explain -- and Bush moved toward the conciliatory.’”
“The two men maintain respectful ties, speaking on the telephone now and then, though aides to both said they were never quite friends. But there is a sting in Cheney's critique, because he views concessions to public sentiment as moral weakness. After years of praising Bush as a man of resolve, Cheney now intimates that the former president turned out to be more like an ordinary politician in the end.”
"Sarah Palin's surprise resignation and uneven performance since has done her no favors in the popularity department . Findings released today from a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey found that 39 percent of Americans view Palin favorably, while 48 percent view her unfavorably. That's a noticeable drop from 46 percent favorable-43 percent unfavorable numbers she received in mid-May."
"The National Republican Congressional Committee on Thursday is launching its first TV ad targeting a Democratic Member on health care reform,"
Roll Call reports. "The ad targeting Rep. Steve Kagen (D-Wis.) is the first in what committee officials said will be a series of TV and radio spots hitting vulnerable Democrats over the August recess. Other Democrats whom the NRCC is zeroing in on include Reps. Zack Space (Ohio), Michael Arcuri (N.Y.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Ike Skelton (Mo.), Christopher Carney (Pa.) and Bill Foster (Ill.)."
Roll Call looks at how the NRSC has some key recruiting holes still. "Whether the NRSC can plug those holes after Congress returns in September could be the difference between Republicans fighting to hold onto the territory they already have in 2010 and the NRSC actually mounting a serious offense against incumbent Democrats next year."
LOUISIANA : Rep. Ahn Joseph Cao seen as the most vulnerable Republican in the country (he's from William Jefferson's district)
will meet with the White House to go over health-care legislation.
NEW JERSEY : The
Star Ledger looks at how Jon Corzine's and Chris Christie's backgrounds not in politics has helped and definitely hurt. CUNY political psychologist Stanley Renshon says, “They’re lucky they’re running against each other.” Republican strategist Roger Stone says, “They each achieved success and prominence in a slightly different realm ... and those don’t necessarily lend themselves to politics.” Corzine, the Star-Ledger writes, has allowed himself to be attacked for lacking “the fire for a role that never suited him in the first place.” But “Christie’s mouth can also get him in trouble,” as when he got in an “on-air shouting match with the hosts of the ‘Jersey Guys’ radio show” during the Republican primary. Bottom line: “Moving from the outside world to the byzantine and often brutal scene of New Jersey politics ... it helps to have spent time in the system, building relationships."
VIRGINIA : Lately, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell has been talking
a lot about his hometown… both of them . He's emphasizing his roots in Northern Virginia (with campaign literature sent out in NoVA labeling McDonnell “a governor that Fairfax county families can be proud to call their own.” In another mailer, however, he “touts himself as a ‘governor Virginia beach can be proud to call our own.’” So which is it? “McDonnell grew up in Fairfax, represented Virginia Beach in the General Assembly for 14 years and then moved to Henrico when he was elected attorney general in 2005.”
From NBC's Mark Murray USA Today/Gallup poll taken yesterday shows that independents, by a 2-to-1 margin, are siding with the town-hall protesters in the debate over health care.
"In a survey of 1,000 adults ... 34% say the sometimes heated protests at sessions held by members of Congress have made them more sympathetic to the protesters' views; 21% say they are less sympathetic. Independents by 2-1, 35%-16%, say they are more sympathetic to the protesters now."
From NBC's Mark Murray
According to the Huffington Post , Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) -- the ranking member on the panel who's working with Committee chairman Max Baucus (D) -- appeared to endorse the untrue "death panel" argument on health care.
"There is some fear because in the House bill, there is counseling for end-of-life. And from that standpoint, you have every right to fear. You shouldn't have counseling at the end of life. You ought to have counseling 20 years before you're going to die. You ought to plan these things out. And I don't have any problem with things like living wills. But they ought to be done within the family. We should not have a government program that determines if you're going to pull the plug on grandma."
From NBC's Mark Murray Taegan Goddard's Political Wire , reports a staff shakeup for the trailing Deeds campaign in Virginia.
Thirty-something wunderkind Joe Abbey, Deeds' manager for his upset June primary victory, has been shunted aside. (That victory was engineered by the Washington Post's editorials, not Abbey or even Deeds.) Party activists have blamed Abbey, fairly or not, for Deeds' listless campaign. Abbey will apparently retain a title and a role in the campaign, but the decisions will be made by Monica Dixon (a close associate of Sen. Mark Warner ), longtime Democratic party staffer Kevin Mack, and Mo Elleithee. The latter will handle all communications and press, and he is a veteran of high-level positions with the successful gubernatorial bids of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine as well as Hillary Clinton's presidential effort.
But Elleithee pushes back against the report, saying that what's taking place is a "beefing up."
"Joe’s the manager, and he’s doing a great job. Kevin’s been there since before the primary; Monica since right around the time of the primary. I think everyone recognizes that this is a tough race, and it’s all hands on deck time, and so everyone’s stepping up their roles because there’s a lot of work to do."
From NBC's Mark Murray Arlen Specter (D) held yesterday, one attendee said, "If you guys think that we want health-care reform so bad, do this -- let's have a referendum in 2010. We'll tell you if we like your plan or not. How's that work?"
In a way, however, there already was a referendum: last year's presidential election, which Obama won by seven percentage points (53%-46%) and 192 electoral votes (365-173).
During the two-year presidential campaign, in both the primaries and the general election, Obama wasn't shy about his objectives on health care. He called for universal care; favored a public/government insurance option; talked about lowering costs; and stressed the need to reduce waste and inefficiencies.
"The very first promise I made on this campaign was that as president, I will sign a universal health-care plan into law by the end of my first term in office," then-candidate Obama said on May 29, 2007, when he unveiled his plans on the issue.
What's more, all the top Democrats running for president (Obama, Hillary Clinton , John Edwards ) had similar health-care plans. The biggest debate among them, in fact, was whether there would be an individual mandate -- not whether there would be a public option or higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for reform.
Yet what's ironic, especially given the town-hall protests we're seeing, is that Obama's health-care plans weren't something the McCain camp ever really assailed during the general election. McCain's ads whacked Obama over experience, Bill Ayers, taxes, for being liberal, for "sharing the wealth," and even Tony Rezko. But there was nothing aimed squarely at health care (although you could argue that the arguments over taxes and "sharing the wealth" are playing key roles in this current debate).
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Towns halls gone wild: After going on for several days now, who looks worse in this town-halls-gone-wild story? An Obama administration that promised a new era of American politics, but that isn't delivering on it? A Republican Party/conservative movement -- less than seven months removed from the White House -- stoking this anger and hoping it returns them to power? American citizens who can't treat their neighbors or elected officials with respect, even when they disagree? Or a media covering the story but also amplifying the exaggerations and outright lies being told at these town halls? Ah, the classic political story … nobody wins, we're all losers in these eyes of the true silent majority: the radical middle? To look at this debate through the prism of campaign politics, has anyone raised their POSITIVE ratings or simply succeeded in raising the NEGATIVE ratings of an opponent?
*** Rampant misinformation: As it turns out, one of the most striking things watching the town halls yesterday -- Obama's, Specter's, and McCaskill's -- was how misinformed the public was about the health-care debate. It's no wonder that Obama spent much of his time yesterday explaining what his plans WOULDN'T do versus what they WOULD do. Here’s one question that Specter received: “President Obama has stated more than once that his goal is to have a single-payer system. Are you for a single-payer system? (While Obama expressed support for a single-payer system before becoming a U.S. senator, he campaigned against it during the presidential contest, and every bill that has cleared a congressional committee doesn't establish a single-payer system.) Here’s another: “I reviewed [H.R.] 3200 the best I could. To me it was obviously written with the assumption that government has the right to control our lives from pre-birth to death.” (As PolitiFact, Factcheck.org, and the AP have written, there is nothing in any piece of legislation that has a say in end-of-life decisions. The provision that has caused the uproar authorizes Medicare to pay doctors for counseling patients about end-of-life care, if the patient wishes.)
Video: Craig Miller, who confronted Sen. Arlen Specter at a town hall meeting, talks about the incident on MSNBC. ***
More fact-checking: Another question: “I do not want to pay on my health care plan that includes the right for a woman to kill her unborn baby. Is it true that this plan is in the health care bill?” (In the House legislation, no federal funds would be used to pay for abortions; if a woman wants an abortion under her plan, the money would come from her insurance premiums. Also, Americans would have the choice of choosing an insurance plan that covers abortion and one that does not.) And here was this question Specter received: “I have a question on page 58 and 59 of this bill, which gives the government access to private individual bank accounts at their free will.” (What?) As McCaskill noted on TODAY, “There are just so many people who are hearing things that aren’t just true.” Still, McCaskill said she was proud of the people who showed up at her town hall. “They don’t trust government right now… I get that distrust.”
*** And fact-checking Obama: But the president also made some misleading statements of his own at his town hall yesterday. “I have not said that I was a single-payer supporter because, frankly, we historically have had an employer-based system in this country with private insurers, and for us to transition to a system like that I believe would be too disruptive.” But Obama did advocate a single-payer system back in 2003, although since then he has a said a single-payer wouldn’t work. Obama also repeated this line: “If you like your health care plan, you can keep your health care plan.” However, there is nothing in any bill moving through Congress that would enforce that. (In fact, it's surprising the White House continues to push this line -- there is NO way the government can guarantee that a business won't change health care providers. They just can't.) And then Obama said, “We have the AARP on board because they know this is a good deal for our seniors.” But AARP put out a statement yesterday saying that it hasn’t officially endorsed any of the bills moving through Congress, although it has said some encouraging words about them.
*** On Obama’s performance: As for the president's overall message yesterday, he spent as much time talking about what his health care plan was NOT than he did in talking about what the bill would do. It's clear the White House knows they are on the defensive. There were some strong moments for him on the defensive, as he gave an interesting answer to those worried the government will destroy the private insurance industry when he said the private sector has THRIVED in the mail industry, noting both UPS and FedEx are out-performing the Postal Service. We're guessing there are a few letter carriers around the country who aren't thrilled with THAT comparison this morning. He seemed to deal with the "death panel" rumor well (and invoked Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson's name, which seemed to rattle Isakson politically. (Check out the tone of Isakson’s release, which does NOT refute the specific points the president made). The president reiterated his no-tax pledge on the middle class, and he said the pharmaceutical companies have cut a deal worth at least $80 billion in cost cuts but left open the possibility he'd ask for MORE money from them (cue Billy Tauzin's anger?)
Video: While President Obama's town hall in New Hamsphire was relatively quiet, members of Congress have proven less fortunate. NBC's Chuck Todd reports. ***
Obama’s town hall vs. the others: One question we’re getting: Why was the president’s town hall so staid compared with all the other town halls we’re seeing? Our theory is the Secret Service. One of us interviewed hundreds of folks who were in the town hall and outside, looking for ANY evidence of town-hall packing -- and we couldn't find any. Perhaps the White House should have attempted to distribute tickets through some GOP groups, like the state party, or Sen. Judd Gregg's office etc. In fact, it seems as if the White House was a tad disappointed they didn't get a moment for the president to confront a critic. The closest the president got was the question from the Maine Republican, who told NBC News that he did NOT vote for Obama. But this man seemed more nervous asking his question about the public option to the president than he did speaking to reporters afterward when he said he wasn't convinced on the public option. What this suggests: How people treat a president is MUCH different than how they'll treat a senator or a member of Congress. It may be a tough reality for a member of Congress to deal with, but it's where we are.
*** The sign war: By the way, for those wondering, it was a peaceful demonstration on the outside with the pro- and anti-side split about evenly. Interestingly, the PRO-Obama side had more pre-printed signs and we saw evidence of NEA, SEIU, and AFL-CIO organizing. On the anti-side, everything was handmade with many folks telling us they received an email from a friend or friend of a friend to show up.
*** McCaskill vs. Specter: One seems to get it (McCaskill) and one, well, seemed like a deer in headlights (Specter). McCaskill was embracing the opportunity to show off centrist credentials. And trust us, given Missouri's slightly GOP-bent, she's got to flash centrist credentials every chance she gets, even though she's not up for re-election until 2012. Meanwhile, for a guy preparing for his first re-election as a Democrat in 2010!, Specter seemed to be out of place and behind the times. If Specter doesn't win his primary or general in 2010, many will point to yesterday's performance as one of the key turning points. Talk about a senator who looked like he was on his own island… He gave both Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak material to push their own change message.
Sen. Claire McCaskill talks to TODAY about the heated town hall meeting she held in Missouri. ***
Up close at Cardin town hall: One of us today is going to be heading out to Hagerstown, MD, for a health-care town hall with Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Here's how it will work: Cardin will make opening remarks setting the ground rules and asking for the audience to be respectful. He also will try to address some of the misinformation out there (e.g. end-of-life care). And it will be something of a civics lesson, as Cardin will explain that there are three bills currently going through Congress; that none has been voted on; and that no senator will vote on the most objectionable to some of these folks -- the House bill. Attendees will get blue cards, on which they can write questions, and a moderator from Hagerstown Community College will read some of the questions. This will be Cardin’s third town hall focused on health care. But Hagerstown isn’t Obama Country: While Obama won Maryland, 62%-36% Washington County (where Hagerstown is located), went for McCain, 56%-43%.
*** 'Disrupting for the sake of disrupting': Cardin spokeswoman Sue Walitsky noted that there has been an uptick in the vocal opposition in the past couple of weeks. She said two weeks ago, the senator held a town hall in Prince George's County that she described as a "tough night, but respectful." But now, she said, the rhetoric has been stepped up and some folks are "disrupting for the sake of disrupting." It's what happened Monday night at a town hall at Towson University, outside Baltimore. Some have even sent e-mails to the local Hagerstown newspaper, Walitsky said, claiming to be from Cardin's office and giving wrong information about the event -- either that it had been canceled or moved or changed times. Cardin's office found out about them only when the paper would call their office to try and verify the fake emails. "There is a more deliberate campaign than coordinated," Walitsky said.
*** Obama’s day: At 10:15 am ET, the president and the first lady host a reception for newly minted Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor. And at 3:10 pm, the Obamas host another reception for Medal of Freedom recipients. The people who won the award include former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor, former tennis star Billie Jean King, and Sen. Ted Kennedy (although Kennedy won’t be in attendance).
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"As demonstrators waved signs and shouted across police tape outside, Obama tried to dispel the emotional argument foes have voiced over the airwaves and in local meetings across the country,” The Boston Globe writes. “He also fought back on points about costs and fears of a government takeover of the healthcare system. And he argued forcefully that a healthcare overhaul would benefit Americans with insurance as well as those without it by cracking down on insurers and offering alternatives to people who lose their coverage. The campaign-style forum was the first of three town hall meetings the White House has scheduled in upcoming days to hammer back at critics, who have put Democrats on the defensive with demonstrations around the country.”
The Washington Post : “As the president spoke, demonstrators outside held posters declaring him a socialist and dubbing him ‘Obamahdinejad,’ in reference to Iran's president. People screamed into bullhorns to protest a bigger government role in health care. ‘Nobama Deathcare!’ one sign read. A young girl held up a sign that said: ‘Obama Lies, Grandma Dies.’ Images of a protester wearing what appeared to be a gun were shown on television.”
The New York Daily News : "If President Obama wanted to hear from hard-core 'skeptics' of his health care plan here on Tuesday, he could have just stepped outside his town hall meeting. One man carried a sign that read 'Obama Pelosi = Mein Kampf,' a reference to Adolf Hitler's anti-Semitic political treatise. 'Government Healthcare = Death Warrant for Seniors,' read another. Both sides of the health care debate faced off Tuesday outside the Portsmouth High School, site of the town hall. Its main driveway became a loud demilitarized zone: some 250 screaming opponents of Obama's plan on one side, a quieter but equally large group of supporters on the other and a small platoon of cops in between."
The Washington Post's Balz does the "what does it all mean?" analysis today, and ge focuses on the issue of government's size and delves into the need for the president to unveil more of what he supports. "The issue of how much government is too much has crystallized in the health-care debate around the proposal for a public insurance option. Advocates say such a government-run plan would give people more choices and would hold down costs by providing stiffer competition for private insurance companies. Opponents argue that it represents a step toward a government takeover of the health-care system that will limit choice and affect quality of care.”
CONTINUED >>
The two Kansas Republican senators -- Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts have put a hold on GOP Rep. John McHugh's nomination as Secretary of the Army. Politico : “Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell told POLITICO: ‘The secretary is very disappointed. We are fighting two wars at once, and the service that is bearing the biggest burden is the Army. So it needs and deserves this leadership… We are anxiously awaiting the arrival of Congressman McHugh.’”
“The senators boasted about their maneuver in a joint news release last week: “U.S. Sens. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) and Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) placed legislative ‘holds’ on key administration appointees to the Departments of Defense and Justice until they receive answers from the White House regarding recent press reports that decisions have been made to locate Guantanamo Bay detainees in Leavenworth, Kan.”
"Senate Democratic leaders are driving home a handful of key points during this month's town hall forums on healthcare: Reform will be fully funded, will not jeopardize current doctor-patient relationships, and is the only alternative to the current, broken system. A set of talking points, 'Responding to Opponents of Health Insurance Reform,' were obtained by The Hill and represent an effort to push back against conservative critics and activists. The four-page series of talking points is also intended to arm senators against the questions they are most likely to face during this month's forums.
Of the disruptions, Specter said these folks are "not necessarily representative of America ," but should be heard. 'It's more than health care,' said Specter, 79, who earlier this year left the Republican Party and became a Democrat. 'I think there is a mood in America of anger with so many people unemployed, with so much bickering in Washington ... with the fear of losing their health care. It all boils over.'"
CONTINUED >>
"Thousands of pages of internal e-mail and once-secret Congressional testimony showed Tuesday that Karl Rove and other senior aides in the Bush White House played an earlier and more active role than was previously known in the 2006 firings of a number of United States attorneys,” the New York Times says.
The Washington Post : "The dismissal of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias of New Mexico in December 2006 followed extensive communication among lawyers and political aides in the White House who hashed over complaints about his work on public corruption cases against Democrats, according to newly released e-mails and transcripts of closed-door House testimony by former Bush counsel Harriet Miers and political chief Karl Rove."
More: "House Judiciary Chairman John M. Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.) on Tuesday characterized the role of Bush White House figures in the firing of Iglesias and eight other U.S. attorneys as improper. 'Under the Bush regime, honest and well-performing U.S. attorneys were fired for petty patronage, political horse-trading, and, in the most egregious case of political abuse of the U.S. attorney corps -- that of U.S. attorney Iglesias -- because he refused to use his office to help Republicans win elections,' Conyers said."
"In a statement Tuesday, Rove asserted that he 'never sought to influence the conduct of any prosecution' and did not decide which prosecutors were fired. He also accused Democrats of making 'false accusations and partisan innuendoes.'"
So add Rick Santorum to the list of 2012 GOP candidates ? Apparently so. (Just askin’: Can a guy who lost Pennsylvania -- a battleground state -- by almost 60%-40% be a presidential contender?)
NEVADA: "Rep. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) has decided not to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in 2010, according to a source with knowledge of Heller’s decision."
NEW JERSEY: While it's not clear that New Jersey voters are ready to hear a counter-argument about anything from Jon Corzine, he has more material in his attempt to tie GOP nominee Chris Christie to Bush -- thanks to testimony from Karl Rove that the one-time GOP political mastermind would occasionally chit-chat with Christie about his political future.
In an interview yesterday with the Newark Star-Ledger , Karl Rove confirmed that he had spoken with Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie about running in 2009. “I talked to him twice in the last couple of years…not regarding his duties as U.S. Attorney, but regarding his interest in running for governor.” better look for some new coattails to grasp on.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Sen. Johnny Isakson isn't taking too kindly to being mentioned by President Obama at his town hall today.
Isakson's office sent out a hot press release with the screaming headline: "Isakson Denounces White House Comments Connecting Him To Terribly Flawed House Health Care Bill."
Isakson, in an interview with the Washington Post's Ezra Klein, denounced Palin's assertion that there was a provision on "death panels," as "nuts."
So what gives?
Isakson takes issue, it appears, with Obama connecting him to the HOUSE version. He pushed for a similar amendment in the SENATE. He said in his release "he strongly opposed the House bill language calling for doctors to follow a government-mandated list of topics to discuss with patients during the counseling sessions."
That's certainly a difference in tone than what he told Klein.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland The House Judiciary Committee today released over 700 pages the interview transcripts with Karl Rove and Harriet Miers regarding the panels investigation of the Bush White House's removal of nine U.S. Attorneys in 2006. The committee also released thousands of pages of internal e-mails.
House Judiciary Chairman John Conyers said in a statement: "This basic truth can no longer be denied: Karl Rove and his cohorts at the Bush White House were the driving force behind several of these firings, which were done for improper reasons."
Accompanying the release of the documents, the committee included some "new facts" in the case, among them.... (the following is directly from the committee's statement which is on their Web site):
2005 White House "Decision" to fire David Iglesias -
Iglesias criticized by Rove aide for not "doing his job on" Democratic Congressional Candidate Patricia Madrid An October 2006 email chain begun by Representative Heather Wilson criticized David Iglesias for not bringing politically useful public corruption prosecutions in the run up to the 2006 elections. Scott Jennings forwarded Wilson's email to Karl Rove and complained that Iglesias had been "shy about doing his job on Madrid," Wilson's opponent in the 2006 Congressional race. Just weeks after this email, Iglesias' name was placed on the final firing list.
An "agitated" Rove pressed Harriet Miers to do something about Iglesias just weeks before Iglesias was placed on the removal list Karl Rove phoned Harriet Miers during a visit to New Mexico in September 2006 - according to Miers' testimony, Rove was "agitated" and told her that Iglesias was "a serious problem and he wanted something done about it."
From NBC's Mark Murray Arlen Specter (D) and Claire McCaskill (D) held today, versus the much more polite one hosted by President Obama in New Hampshire?
Did Obama stack the deck with supporters? (The White House insists it didn't, and Obama did go out of his way to solicit tough questions.) Or are people just nicer in New Hampshire? Or does the office of the presidency command respect -- even from political opponents?
Whatever the reason, the nine questions that Obama received at his town hall didn't resemble anything that we've seen over the past few days.
Perhaps the president set the tone early when he acknowledged the "long and vigorous debate" the country is having over health care. "That is what America is about," he said. "That is why we have a democracy."
But, he added, "I hope we will talk with each, and not over each other... Let's disagree over the things that are real," not the things that aren't.
Some other takeaways from Obama's town hall today:
From NBC's Michelle Perry Secretary Clinton 's angry outburst yesterday in the Congo, when she was responding to what she thought was a question from a student asking about her husband's view on a trade deal.
Crowley said she was responding to the question as it was posed to her in the English translation and that she was perhaps angered by the hint of chauvinism in the question.
"It's important to understand the context here," Crowley said, "that, you know, one of -- an abiding theme that she has in her trip to Africa is empowering women.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro If you just can't wait for the 2012 Iowa Republican primary, Craig Robinson, the former political director for the state GOP, ranks the contenders on his site The Iowa Republican . It's waaaaay early, but here's how Iowa GOPers are starting to see the field:
1. Huckabee (who won it last time): "Looking ahead to 2012, Huckabee will have to deal with something new if he seeks the Republican nomination for president -- expectations. No longer will Huckabee be the underdog, meaning, the national media will be looking to see how much money he has raised and what type of organization he is building in the early states."
2. Palin : "One thing is for certain, if she does run for President, she is going to have to explain why she could not complete one term as Alaska’s Governor. While people tend to favor candidates who have been governors, Palin not finishing one term could haunt her for the rest of her political career."
3. Romney : "The national political pundits all have Mitt Romney occupying the top spot on their 2012 presidential lists, but for the man who invested millions of dollars in Iowa during his 2008 presidential run, Romney hasn’t stepped foot in Iowa since right before the last general election, and even that event was very low key."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ron Allen President Obama will conduct his town hall, there is an anti-Obama protestor with a gun -- a pistol strapped to his lower leg.
The local police chief said it's legal for the man to have a registered handgun -- as long as it is not concealed. What's more, he is on private property, a church yard, which has given him permission to be there.
*** UPDATE ***
He's passing out a bookmark that says, "Join the Second Amendment Revolution, the most exciting pro-liberty movement in over 200 years."
He's a Ron Paul supporter, who opposes just about everything Obama, including health care reform.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Scott Foster and Mark Murray Obama supporters.
Here is a part of a backgrounder it just released:
Like nearly every other town hall the White House has hosted, the vast majority of the tickets were available to the public via a website where people could register for the opportunity to receive tickets to attend the town hall. The remaining tickets were distributed by the White House to elected officials, community leaders, etc.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro list of congressional delegations , or CODELS, over the August recess, which it published Thursday. And check out how many members are bringing spouses along.
Heading with their spouses to Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China and Canada for two weeks: Reps. John Boehner (R-OH), Dan Boren (R-OK), Jo Bonner (R-AL), Dave Camp (R-MI), Tom Latham (R-IA), Greg Walden (R-OR).
Heading with their spouses to the U.K., Turkey, Egypt, Greece and Italy for a week: Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Susan Davis (D-CA), John Carter (R-TX), Mike McCaul (R-TX), Charlie Dent (R-PA).
[ * **UPDATE***
Heading with their spouses to Germany, Italy and Spain for a week: Rep. Jerry Costello (D-IL), John Duncan (R-TN), Harold Rogers (R-KY), Tim Holden (D-PA), Henry Brown (R-SC), Michael Capuano (D-MA), Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Vern Buchanan (R-FL).
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Arlen Specter 's lively Pennsylvania town hall that we are seeing live on MSNBC, it is taking place in Lebanon County, a solidly Republican County in a Democratic state.
Lebanon County, in Central-Eastern Pennsylvania, voted overwhelmingly for John McCain in 2008, 59%-40% -- despite Barack Obama winning the state overall 54%-44% -- the highest percentage achieved by a Democrat in Pennsylvania since LBJ in 1964. Going all the way back to 1960, this county has never voted for a Democrat.
The county does fall in the 17th congressional district, which is represented by DEMOCRAT Tim Holden, who was elected in 1992. Some Lebanon history as GOP county: Bush .Bush . Dole .Bush .Bush .Reagan .Reagan .Ford .Nixon .Nixon .Goldwater .Nixon .
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Obama’s own town hall : No group of Americans takes the idea of town-hall meetings with politicians more seriously than New Hampshire residents do. And with rage at town halls all the, well, rage, President Obama's health-care town hall in Portsmouth at 1:00 pm ET today could become quite the spectacle. About a year ago, Obama traveled up to Unity, NH to hold his first campaign event with Hillary Clinton after she ended her presidential campaign. But as Obama heads back to New Hampshire today for his first event in the Granite State since becoming president, he's finding unity on health care to be much more elusive than reconciliation with Hillary or her supporters ever proved to be. Given enough time, most PUMAs were going to come around. But the same can't be said for Republicans and conservatives who are intent on defeating any type of health-care reform this year. By the way, the White House might catch a break regarding protesters today. Why? The weather… It's not just raining; it's pouring as of 8:45 am…
*** Focusing on pre-existing conditions : Per the White House, Obama plans to focus his remarks on health INSURANCE reform, emphasizing how his bill -- when it comes together -- will guarantee more protections for Americans with pre-existing conditions. In fact, on TODAY this morning, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said the president will be introduced at the town hall by someone who was “discriminated against” because of pre-existing conditions. The DNC is reinforcing this message with a new TV ad (to air on DC and national cable) that says, “President Obama’s plan will end unfair insurance practices, like denying coverage for a pre-existing condition.” Also in his remarks today, don’t be surprised if Obama goes out of his way to address the tone of the debate, which is the elephant in the room (no pun intended). This is a critical week for the president to somehow take the attention away from the town halls with other members of Congress. By holding three of his own between now and Saturday, he just might do that…Then again, he can't afford a fumble this week. The president today has to be able to set the example and become the backbone for congressional Democrats all over the country.
*** Time to send out the punting unit : Both the New York Times and the Washington Post played up Obama's remarks on immigration yesterday as a pledge to take up the issue in 2010. Others, like the L.A. Times , saw it as a political punt. Our take? It was a punt. Honest question: Do you really think immigration is going to be taken up seriously in a midterm election year, especially when Obama lost one of his biggest GOP allies on the issue to resignation (Mel Martinez)? At best, look for INCREMENTAL work on immigration reform. This could be the lesson the White House takes away from health care: on a politically red hot issue, go incremental. On the other hand, if the White House takes up immigration reform next year and the GOP opposes it, could that help Democrats lock in the Latino vote for decades?
*** No longer a toxic matter? The New York Times has a remarkable story about the toxic assets program. It's remarkable because it's UNREMARKABLE -- the program, which was hyped up big time in the spring, hasn't been used and might not ever be used. Was it a waste of political capital for Geithner and the Obama administration? Or by simply having it there as a backstop, did it jump-start the free market? Also, does the administration get credit for it not being used? Or is it not being used because the rules are so stringent? Your answer probably depends on your political persuasion. Bottom line: It's stunning that in August of '09 we have a story in the national paper of record about how the toxic assets program just hasn't been used.
*** “My husband is not the secretary of state” : It raised our eyebrows when we first read about Secretary of State Clinton’s reaction yesterday in Africa to a question she thought she was getting about her husband. But the video of it is definitely something to see. Here was the question: "We have all heard about Chinese contracts in this country, the interferences from the World Bank about this contract. What does Mr. Clinton think through the mouth of Mrs. Clinton…?" Hillary shot back: “You want me to tell you what my husband thinks? My husband is not the secretary of state, I am. You ask my opinion I will tell you my opinion, I'm not going to be channeling my husband." (As it turns out, the translator apparently screwed up; the questioner meant President Obama, not President Clinton.) Was the reaction a product of jet lag or a sign of tension with some of the attention her husband is receiving of late? On TODAY, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported that it was probably both. Mitchell said it came during the halfway point of a 12-day trip through Africa. But: “She was doing serious stuff, and here she thought she was receiving a question about her husband.” Of course, only a Clinton gets psychoanalyzed the way she's being analyzed this morning; it's the burden of the last name.
*** Palin veto gets overturned : One of the bigger ironies in American politics was how a former governor (Sarah Palin) of a state that depends so much on federal largesse (Alaska) later became such an opponent of pork-barrel spending and government assistance. It probably explains why the Alaska Legislature was able to muster the three-quarters vote yesterday to override Palin’s veto of $28 million in federal stimulus money for energy cost relief. As the Anchorage Daily News notes, “Reversing a governor's appropriation veto requires a vote of 75 percent of the Legislature, a hurdle rarely met. The override passed 45 to 14 and if a single other legislator had voted against it or been absent from the special session, it would have failed.”
*** Remembering Eunice Kennedy Shriver : Eunice Kennedy Shriver -- founder of the Special Olympics and sister to JFK, RFK, and Ted Kennedy -- passed away at 2:00 am last night. “She was the light of our lives, a mother, wife, grandmother, sister and aunt who taught us by example and with passion what it means to live a faith-driven life of love and service to others,” her family said in a statement. It's been a tough year (that might only get tougher) for the Kennedy family. For all the drama the press likes to unearth about the Kennedys, the Shrivers have been drama-free. And no one can take away the fact what Shriver did for the mentally disabled and for parents of children who are mentally challenged. The Special Olympics is the type of gift wealthy Americans or children/siblings of means wish they could create or invent. It truly is one of the more remarkable programs and a legacy that would matter whether her last name was Kennedy or Shriver or Jones or Smith.
*** Remembering Cantor’s town halls : By the way, remember Eric Cantor’s National Council for a New America? Well, we certainly haven’t since it launched last spring. Now Politico writes that it has “flamed out.” From the article: “Since its launch, the National Council hasn’t held a single public event, despite more than 5,000 invitations to take their show out on the road. Congressional ethics rules limit what Cantor can do with the group because he launched it from his leadership office, making it harder to organize events and recruit partners. Despite that caution, the group is still taking heat from outside watchdog groups that argue he is violating the spirit, and perhaps the letter, of those rules.” Is part of the problem that Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush, prominent at the launch, haven't stepped up as private citizens?
*** 2009 watch : A new Quinnipiac poll shows that vulnerable New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has made up a little ground on Chris Christie (R). Corzine now trails Christie by nine points, 51%-42%; last month, the deficit was 12 points, 53%-41%. Still, it’s never a good situation for the incumbent to be stuck in the low 40s…
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 84 days
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President Obama's town hall in New Hampshire today, the AP says, "seeks to shift focus onto those who are already insured and explain what the overhaul would mean to them. Obama plans to discuss consumer protections he recently laid out, including efforts to end denial of coverage based on pre-existing conditions." New Hampshire Union-Leader : "If you want to see the President talk about health-care reform at Portsmouth High School today but weren't one of the 1,800 people selected by the White House: good luck. And, if you had plans to drive through the city tomorrow: think again. With thousands of people -- invited guests, protesters and the national media -- expected to swarm the Stone Gymnasium this afternoon, final preparations were under way yesterday. ... Police said only ticketed guests will be allowed onto Andrew Jarvis Drive, the road leading into the school."
The Portsmoth Herald's editorial page : "We know that shouting, bullying and grandstanding are merely sound and fury signifying nothing. So it is with great confidence that we look forward to Tuesday's health care forum with President Obama at Portsmouth High School. If the local citizenry is able to set the tone for tomorrow's town hall meeting then the president will hear thoughtful questions and provide in-depth answers that go beyond sound bites. We have seen coverage of health care town halls in other parts of the country that have degenerated into the worst kind of political debate, where violence and ignorance get the upper hand and nothing is accomplished, nothing learned... Changing our health care system is an enormous undertaking... Change is never easy, especially for a personal issue such as health care but we shouldn't let fear, uncertainty and confusion derail us from talking to each other with civility and respect and doing the right thing."
The Los Angeles Times’ Parsons gets to the nut as to why the White House has struggled so far in this debate. "Confusion over what a final healthcare bill will say -- legislation is still being written -- has given Republicans the opportunity to rally opposition, especially at town halls. On the other hand, the vitriol of some critics -- who hanged one congressman in effigy and shouted down Democrats at some gatherings -- has given Democrats a chance to highlight and criticize opposition tactics."
CONTINUED >>
Roll Call : "Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, said Monday evening he would be willing to eliminate from the 2010 Defense spending bill tens of millions of dollars for new passenger jets that have already been approved by the House."
Death panel? Not so much . Former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin says the health care overhaul bill would set up a ‘death panel.’ … Palin and other critics are wrong. Nothing in the legislation would carry out such a bleak vision. The provision that has caused the uproar would instead authorize Medicare to pay doctors for counseling patients about end-of-life care, if the patient wishes."
Politico : "Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.) generated the kind of buzz other politicians covet when he launched his bid to help rebrand the Republican Party last spring. Television crews and reporters wedged themselves among the crowd of party faithful to cover the National Council for a New America's first event at a packed pizza parlor in an Arlington, Va., strip mall… Since its launch, the National Council hasn’t held a single public event, despite more than 5,000 invitations to take their show out on the road. Congressional ethics rules limit what Cantor can do with the group because he launched it from his leadership office, making it harder to organize events and recruit partners. Despite that caution, the group is still taking heat from outside watchdog groups that argue he is violating the spirit, and perhaps the letter, of those rules."
NEW JERSEY : Per the Washington Post , the Republican Governors Association is courting environmentalists and Hispanics, traditional left-leaning Democratic voters in the state. One new TV ad , running on cable stations across the state, says, “The Sierra Club says Jon Corzine has the worst environmental record in New Jersey history.”
NEW YORK : Will some state Dems begin "drafting" Andrew Cuomo to run for governor? The New York Times : "Democrats are concerned that the election prospects of the party’s candidates will be undermined with Mr. Paterson prominently on the ticket, as he is hobbled by plunging job-approval ratings and missteps that have raised questions about whether he should even run next year."
VIRGINIA : As we mentioned yesterday, Creigh Deeds (D) launched his abortion rights tour, in an attempt to pain Bob McDonnell (R) as too conservative for the state. The Washington Post : "Deeds's message could energize a Democratic base that has been showing signs of sluggishness since last year's overwhelming victory in the presidential election. It could also chip away at McDonnell's campaign promises that he would focus on education, jobs and transportation if elected governor."
But: "Republicans seized on Deeds's new message, convinced that it will prove to be a strategic blunder for the Democrat to force the difficult social issue into the forefront of the campaign. They say the Deeds push is a departure from the approach of his Democratic successors Mark Warner and Timothy M. Kaine. Neither made such an early, high-profile foray into the topic during their campaigns for governor in 2001 and 2005."
The Deeds camp tells First Read, however, that Kaine ran an advertisement on abortion in 2005, and that the Obama campaign distributed lots of mail on the subject last year.
From NBC's Matthew Samuels and Domenico Montanaro
"People are scared, saying my very existence may be threatened," Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle said on a conference call with reporters and other Republican governors, adding, "There are many people who are already satisfied with their health care and want to know what is going to change.”
Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and Sonny Perdue of Georgia agreed and criticized the administration for rushing through a plan.
"The American people realize that this is too much too fast and too many trillions of dollars," Barbour said. "How come they need to pass this before the August recess? People want their questions answered first." He added that it took Obama six months to pick out a dog, yet is "rushing" health care.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro numbers we crunched on Senate races and how historically the Senate shift is much narrower than for the House in a president's first mid-term.
Charlie Cook , one of THE smartest guys in the business on this, wrote us after we published arguing that it might be a better measure not to include, for example, 1946 -- Truman's first mid-term election after assuming the presidency a year earlier when FDR died.
"The way I look at it, it is a party’s first midterm election after taking office, or if a party holds onto the White House after eight years (e.g. 1988), the next midterm election," Cook writes. "I don’t make a distinction between the Kennedy and Johnson elections; Johnson simply carried over the Kennedy Administration, agenda, etc. So by my reckoning, 1966 is a second-term, midterm election. Part of it is being a purist, the other part is that making exceptions creates more problems. It’s rather extraordinary for a new president to win the kind of election (37 House seats gained) that LBJ/Dems did in 1964 (in part due to Kennedy’s death), thus setting Dems up for huge 1966 midterm (47 House seats) losses. It bends the numbers a lot."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Rep. Bob Inglis town hall, in which he gets booed for telling people to turn off Glenn Beck , in First Thoughts this morning.
Here's the video [hat tip: Newsbusters via TV Newser ]:
Inglis is clearly frustrated, trying to get control of the meeting. Note the shouts of "I'm afraid of Obama " and "We're all afraid of Obama ... he's a socialist." (Lots more at the Newsbusters post about what Inglis said in a follow-up interview, including that Walter Cronkite "would've been fired on the spot" had he called the president racist. And: “The America that Glenn Beck seems to see is a place where we all should be fearful, thinking that our best days are behind us. It sure does sell soap, but it sure does a disservice to America.”)
And catch this line from OK-1 Rep. John Sullivan [hat tip: Tulsa World via ThinkProgress ]:
"This is a scary time in Washington. It's a very frightening time. I see Barack Obama is creating an enemies list of people who oppose this miserable health care plan. I think that's frightening. That's from a guy that can't even show a long-form birth certificate. I think we all ought to be prepared to fight that." He added, "Everyone demonizes the other side. We need to all sit down and focus on these vital issues. That's the only way we can address these very, very tough issues."
The so-called "enemies list" is apparently a reference to the White House soliciting "fishy" information on health care, so it can knock it down.
From NBC's Richard Engel and Madeleine Haeringer
Today, under the headline "Taliban Now Winning," the Journal writes: "The Taliban have gained the upper hand in Afghanistan, the top American commander there said, forcing the U.S. to change its strategy in the eight-year-old conflict by increasing the number of troops in heavily populated areas like the volatile southern city of Kandahar, the insurgency's spiritual home."
But McChrystal's spokesman categorically DENIES that the general said the Taliban is winning.
"The general did NOT say the Taliban is gaining the upper hand," he said.
The spokesman said the general did say there is an aggressive enemy -- and that they are launching complex attacks. But he does not agree that the "Taliban are winning."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg The battle for the Senate: Last week, we wrote that Republicans have history, the map, and the political winds on their side when it comes to next year’s House races. But the first two definitely AREN’T advantages when it comes to the 2010 Senate contests. Since the end of World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of just 2.6 Senate seats in that president’s first midterm, compared with 26 House seats. The worst showing for the president’s party was in 1946, when the Democrats lost 12 Senate seats. The second-worst showing was in 1994, when they lost 10 seats. The president’s party’s best showing came in 1962, when it gained three seats. In short, the party in control of the White House is much more likely to lose House seats in the midterms than it is Senate seats.
*** Democrats have the map advantage: What’s more, as we head into next year, the map certainly isn’t on the GOP’s side. Currently, Democrats have a 60-40 advantage in the Senate (with two independents, Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, caucusing with the Dems). So Republicans will need to win 11 Senate seats to take back control of the chamber. But much of the 2010 Senate battleground will be fought on GOP turf. For starters, there are 19 Republican-held seats this cycle, versus 18 Democrat-held seats. More importantly, there are already six GOP-held open seats (FL, KS, KY, MO, NH, OH) -- and there will be seven if/when Kay Bailey Hutchison leaves her seat to run for Texas governor -- while Democrats have two (DE and IL). To put the GOP’s challenge with this map into perspective, the Cook Political Report identifies six toss-up contests (in CT, IL, KY, MO, NH, and OH), but even if Republicans win them all, they’ll net just two Senate seats. Of course, that would be enough to end the Democrats’ filibuster-proof majority, but it wouldn’t be close to getting back control of the Senate.
*** Focus on Missouri and Ohio: Without a doubt, the two biggest Senate battlegrounds next year will be in the Show Me State and Buckeye State, and they’ll give us a good read on the health of the two political parties. If the Democrats lose both, it will suggest that the party’s successes in these states from 2006-2008 -- including gubernatorial and senatorial wins in both states, as well as Obama winning in Ohio and narrowly losing in Missouri -- might have come to an end. But if Republicans lose both -- with well-known figures from Bush years at the top of the ticket (Roy Blunt in Missouri and Rob Portman in Ohio) -- that would suggest that the Bush and GOP brands are still major problems for the party. Bottom line: The best way to judge who "wins" or "loses" the 2010 midterms will be in these two states, pure and simple. And they will be the most dominant races the media will focus on next year.
*** White House fights back: Another weekend, another spate of health-care debate nuttiness. The debate -- not the issue itself -- is now the story. Think about that... In fact, that may explain why it appears the White House is losing the message war. It is trying to fight back by unveiling two campaigns. One is a truth squad of sorts via the White House Web site. It's easily the most aggressive Web effort by any White House to date. Meanwhile, on the political front, the DNC is asking supporters to flood congressional district offices to voice their support for health-care reform. This is a big test for the Obama political machine, because one thing that has gotten lost in this debate over town hall protests: how the Obama supporters have been out-organized so far.
*** When Bob Inglis is getting booed…: But is there a point at which Republicans will overplay their hands on these town halls? While most Republican leaders (both official and unofficial) are standing by these protests and even encouraging them, a few are letting their own frustration show. Conservative GOP Rep. Bob Inglis of South Carolina, went off on Glenn Beck and Lou Dobbs for their tone. And what happened next? Inglis got booed out of his own town hall. The South Carolina Republican is not going to be someone who will support the president on any domestic policy. But if a Bob Inglis is getting fed up, how many other Republican elected officials will crack? And while the Obama White House is losing the message war on health care itself, it does seem to be getting traction with the media on a closer look at how these town halls are playing. And let’s face it: Death threats, effigies, and swastikas usually don’t help you on the PR front.
*** Obama’s own town hall: By the way, it will be interesting to see what happens when President Obama holds his own town hall in Portsmouth, NH, tomorrow. One of us got our hands on an invitation from a conservative group planning a protest outside of Tuesday’s venue. “There will be news media from all over the world at this event,” the invitation reads, “and it will be the ideal opportunity for us to tell the rest of the country exactly how NH voters feel about Obamacare (taxed/rationed healthcare).” If anything, we’d bet some inside the White House are hoping for a confrontation, since they believe the president's demeanor alone will politically play well with the folks they care about most about right now: ACTUAL independents.
*** Trouble in Afghanistan: Lost in all of this town-hall chaos is the very real problem developing in Afghanistan. It appears it's not a matter of IF U.S. commanders on the ground are going to ask for more troops but WHEN. This isn't going to be a very popular decision if Obama finds himself sending more troops. Right now, he may be asked for as few as another 10,000 to as many as 40,000 more. The Taliban apparently has made a LOT of inroads in Afghanistan, so much so, that the Wall Street Journal has this very scary headline today: "Taliban Now Winning."
*** What if government was the solution? Turning to the recent good economic news, a narrative is becoming to develop that the government rescued the country from a second Great Depression. While saying it’s still too early to know for sure, the New York Times’ David Leonhardt wrote on Saturday that “the evidence is now pointing pretty strongly in one direction: history books may conclude that the financial crisis of 2008 turned out to be far less bad than it could have been and that Washington deserved much of the credit.” Adds Paul Krugman today: “Ronald Reagan was wrong: sometimes the private sector is the problem, and government is the solution.” The debate over Obama’s stimulus is still unsettled, but we have noticed that Republicans are no longer criticizing (or at least as much) the bank bailouts. Just askin’, but if government was part of the solution to the country’s economic woes, what does that mean for 1) the health-care debate and 2) the Republican Party?
*** Over the top? On Friday, Sarah Palin made this posting on her Facebook page regarding Obama’s health-care plans: “The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.” Palin didn’t cite anything from a bill, but rather a floor speech by Michelle Bachmann, which itself didn't quote from the House bill directly. NBC’s Savannah Guthrie reports that when President Obama was told of Palin’s comment, he said it was "unproductive" for Republican leaders to spread this kind of misinformation, according to a senior administration official.
*** Is Creigh Deeds done? No, he's not done, but he sure is acting like a candidate who might be panicking just a bit. He's doing something that no Virginia Dem (Warner, Kaine or Webb) has done recently: He's deciding to wade into the culture war issue of abortion. This may have worked for Doug Wilder back in 1989, when it looked like the issue of abortion would find its way back to the states or be debated in the courts, etc. But how much do average abortion-rights supporters think they’re under siege right now? Do casual voters in Northern Virginia really think abortion rights will get overturned now that Democrats control Congress and the White House? This appears to be the opposite strategy of Virginia Dems in recent elections, which was to avoid some of these red-hot culture war issues. Just how bad are Deeds' numbers with women and in Northern Virginia?
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 85 days
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"Leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico -- the trio known as 'the three amigos ' -- gathered in Mexico on Sunday to begin a summit that will likely focus on such vexing issues as drug-cartel violence, immigration, economic recovery and the swine flu… The summit will continue until Monday afternoon, when the trio are expected to address reporters before going home. Harper will come to Washington next month for a Sept. 16 meeting with Obama."
Reuters : "At the top of their agenda are the economy, trade and grappling with Mexican gangs that dominate the drug trade over the US border and up into Canada." AP : "President Barack Obama's first North American summit is proving it's a lot easier to agree on battling a killer flu virus than to untangle knotty disputes over cross-border trade." The "main accomplishment will likely be a joint plan of attack for swine flu. But there was little chance of any breakthrough in long-running squabbles over Mexican trucks, or U.S. ‘Buy American’ rules or how best to curb the deadly flow of drugs across the frontier."
Regarding those town halls, the Obama political arm is fighting back both officially on the White House web site and unofficially via the DNC.
CONTINUED >>
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer have penned an op-ed in USA Today decrying some of the conservative protests at these town halls. “The dialogue between elected representatives and constituents is at the heart of our democracy and plays an integral role in assuring that the legislation we write reflects the genuine needs and concerns of the people we represent,” they write. “However, it is now evident that an ugly campaign is underway not merely to misrepresent the health insurance reform legislation, but to disrupt public meetings and prevent members of Congress and constituents from conducting a civil dialogue.”
On the other hand, in his appearance on FOX yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell defended the protests, saying: “I think attacking citizens in our country for expressing their opinions about an issue of this magnitude may indicate some weakness in their position on the merits.”
Following the lead of former Washington Post Ohio Valley Bureau chief Tom Edsall's reporting in '04 and '06, the Washington Post delves back into Indiana 09, Dem Baron Hill's Cong. District, to see how health care is playing.
"Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Sunday on CNN’s 'State of the Union' that he is committed to getting a bipartisan bill , even if it means sacrificing a public insurance option. 'It doesn’t have to be a perfect bill,' Durbin said. 'I support a public option, but yes I am open. I want to make sure we do something positive for the American people.'" But Sen. John Cornyn said that "while 'there’s a lot of middle ground where we can meet, I don’t see how we can make much headway' unless the public insurance option is off the table entirely."
On Friday, Sarah Palin made this posting on her Facebook page regarding Obama’s health-care plans: “The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society,’ whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil.”
Meanwhile, "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich lent credence Sunday to Sarah Palin's claim that the healthcare reform legislation will create 'death panels' to judge end-of-life issues. 'Communal standards, historically, is a very dangerous concept,' Gingrich said on ABC's 'This Week.'" And: "In defense of Palin's remarks, Gingrich cited an article written by Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, brother of White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and a healthcare policy adviser, that suggested the possibility of population control. 'You're asking us to trust turning over power to the government, when there are clearly people in America who believe in establishing euthanasia, including selective standards,' Gingrich said."
More bad news for Mark Sanford, per the AP: "South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford used state aircraft for personal and political trips, often bringing along his wife and children -- contrary to state law regarding
NEVADA: Get that man a towel to chew on! "Danny Tarkanian, the son of famed University of Nevada Las Vegas former basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, on Monday will become the latest Republican to formally launch a 2010 challenge to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). ... This is not Tarkanian’s first run for political office. In 2006, he lost a bid for Nevada secretary of state. He ran for state Senate in 2004 and lost but then filed a civil defamation lawsuit against his opponent. The suit was just recently settled when his opponent, state Sen. Mike Schneider (D), agreed to pay Tarkanian $150,000 in damages."
NEW JERSEY: Star-Ledger columnist George Amick writes of the Democratic ticket: “One could even argue it is upside down,” and that the second-in-command candidate Loretta Weinberg is “better equipped to head” the office than Corzine. Unlike Corzine, who had “zero experience in state or local office” before becoming governor in 2006, Weinberg “served 15 years in county and municipal government.” PENNSYLVANIA: Joe Sestak running for Senate leaves open his PA-7 seat, and now Republicans appear to have gotten a top recruit to run for it. "Former U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan (R), who was running for governor of Pennsylvania in 2010, has begun making calls and telling supporters that he will run for the open 7th district seat instead, according to a GOP source in the Keystone State," Roll Call reports.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd Pres. Obama holds his OWN town hall in New Hampshire this Tuesday where the issues of the economy and health care are likely to be the dominant issues. Of course, what many will be watching is to see if this town hall invites the same passion as we've witnessed at town halls for members of Congress this last week.
CONTINUED >>
THE WEEK AHEAD: Congress is off, Obama heads to Mexico and then out West, rowdy town halls, Netroots and Gen. James Jones on Meet the Press.
For our mailbox, submit your questions for next week in the comments section below. We might pick yours.
From NBC's Mark Murray The State reports, "First Lady Jenny Sanford
announced Friday she is moving with her four sons to Charleston and will no longer live in the Governor’s Mansion."
From a statement she released: "It is with this support, and after much careful and prayerful consideration, that I have decided to move back to our home in Charleston with our sons for the upcoming school year. From there, we will work to continue the process of healing our family. While we will be leaving Columbia, we will return often, and I will remain engaged in activities in my role as First Lady, acknowledging that my responsibilities to my family come first."
And here's Gov. Mark Sanford's statement: "I stand by this family decision and accordingly ask the media to honor the zone of privacy that Jenny has asked for on behalf of the healing process and our four boys going forward."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Alex Beinstein Carolyn Maloney
has reversed course and decided against a challenge to New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, the New York Times reports.
Maloney's decision is not much of a surprise. New York liberals were irritated that Gov. David Paterson nominated a centrist to replace Hillary Clinton . They thought Gillibrand's position on guns, in particular, was too out of step with the whole of New York State. Gillibrand
had to hold more conservative positions than officials from New York City, for example, because she ran -- and won -- in an Upstate district that was traditionally held by Republicans.
Maloney became the leading opposition primary voice to Gillibrand. But New York's senior senator,
Chuck Schumer , took Gillibrand under his wing. Gillibrand has since shifted to a more liberal position on guns and gun control and also got some TV time in being able to introduce
Sonia Sotomayor , who will be sworn in as the next U.S. Supreme Court Justice tomorrow.
From NBC's Mark Murray
That has become the political question as members of Congress have returned to their districts and states this August recess to discuss contentious issues like President Obama's plans for health care.
For liberals and Democrats, these are protests at town hall meetings coordinated by conservative groups -- the same people who organized those earlier Tea Party events.
Video: Rep. Brian Baird, D-Washington won’t hold any health care town hall meetings this month because he says the crowds being dispatched to shut down these meetings have a “lynch mob mentality.” Rachel Maddow is joined by Rep. Brian Baird. For conservatives and Republicans, these are citizens expressing their 1st Amendment rights to criticize Obama's plans.
But some of these protests have now taken a troubling turn:
-- six people, including a St. Louis Post Dispatch reporter,
were arrested at a town hall sponsored yesterday by Rep.
Russ Carnahan (D-MO)
-- at event yesterday sponsored by SEIU and a state senator, Rep. Kathy Castor (D-FL) tried to speak for nearly 15 minutes but the crowd
drowned her out , chanting, "You work for us,'' Also: "Tyranny, tyranny,'' and "Tell the truth! Tell the truth!" "Read the bill!" "Forty-million illegals! Forty million illegals!"
-- also,
an effigy of a freshman Democratic congressman (
Frank Kratovil , D-MD) was hung
-- and even one Democratic congressman (
Brad Miller , D-NC) said he received
a death threat
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray Mel Martinez
, who already announced he is not running for re-election in 2010, is resigning from the Senate by the end of the month -- possibly announcing this early as today. It'll be official at some point this month, with the hope of having a replacement in office when the Senate comes back.Charlie Crist -- who is already running for Martinez's seats -- will now have to appoint a replacement to fill out the remainder of Martinez's term. The expectation is that Crist WON'T appoint himself, but would rather appoint a placeholder. One rumor is former GOP. Gov. Bob Martinez . Another rumor we've heard is former GOP Sen. Connie Mack .
From NBC's Mark Murray since Aug. 2008 .
In short, Republicans are doubling down that the jobs report is an aberration -- risking looking out of touch if the economy does start picking up steam.
Here's RNC Chairman Michael Steele : "In the month of July alone 247,000 Americans lost their jobs, which means more than 2.8 million Americans have lost their jobs since the president took office. The president said his stimulus bill would keep unemployment from rising higher than 8 percent. It hasn't."
Video: The number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week by 38,000, to 550,000. NBC's Brian Williams reports. Here's the National Republican Congressional Committee: "False Promises Exposed: High Unemployment Numbers Persist As Democrats Push Big-Spending Agenda."
Here's the National Republican Senatorial Committee: “As
Harry Reid and
President Obama attempt to cast today’s unemployment numbers as a victory for the Democrats, the fact remains that our country’s deficit has skyrocketed under this Administration and hundreds of thousands of Americans still lost their jobs during the month of July."
And here is House Minority Leader John Boehner : "Nearly six months ago, the Administration promised its 'stimulus' would provide a 'jolt' to our economy, create jobs immediately, and hold unemployment below eight percent. Yet more than two million Americans have lost their jobs since the 'stimulus' became law. Every American has the right to ask 'Where are the jobs, Mr. President?'"
Then again, the economy lost 3.1 million jobs in George W. Bush's final year in office.
NBC's Chuck Todd reports that
President Obama signed the "Cash for Clunkers" bill at about 9:45 am ET this morning.
From NBC's Mark Murray Breaking News : Per the AP, "Employers throttled back on layoffs in July, cutting just 247,000 jobs, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.4 percent. It was a better than expected showing that offered a strong signal that the recession is finally ending."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Video: The Senate took on the car business with unusual haste Thursday in deciding whether to extend the popular "cash for clunkers" program. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports from Capitol Hill. Because supporters of the bill are seeking an immediate infusion of $2 billion to keep the program going, the Senate must pass the House-passed version with no changes or amendments. So Majority Leader
Harry Reid
must defeat all the amendments, and he is cautiously optimistic he will able to.
Each amendment -- and there are seven -- is allow up to 30 minutes of debate. After all the time is used or yielded back, the Senate will vote on each amendment. That will be followed by a vote on final passage.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Athena Jones
President Obama today thanked the Senate for confirming Judge Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court, calling it a "wonderful day" for America.Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr. She was spending the day in New York, according to the White House, and was not present for the president's comments.
In brief remarks delivered just moments after the vote, Obama declared himself "very happy" with the 68 votes Sotomayor received and said he was filled with pride at this achievement.
Video: President Obama comments on the Senate’s vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor to the U.S. Supreme Court. "With this historic vote," he said, "the Senate has affirmed that Judge Sotomayor has the intellect, the temperament, the history, the integrity and the independence of mind to ably serve on our nation's highest court."
The Senate's role in confirming judges helped ensure that equal justice under the law was not just a phrase inscribed above the courthouse door, but a description of what happens inside the courtroom each day, the president said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
Sonia Sotomayor was confirmed today by the Senate to become the next Supreme Court justice, she is technically not yet "Justice" Sotomayor. She won't be until she takes both the federal oath and the judicial oath on Saturday.
Video: Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., officially announces that Sonia Sotomayor has been confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court in the Senate. She'll be sworn in on Saturday at the Supreme Court by
Chief Justice Roberts . (That event will be available for TV pool coverage, which will be a first for the court.)
Justice Sotomayor will be the court's second-youngest member, at age 55. Only Roberts, who turned 54 in January, is younger.
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
to the Supreme Court by a 68-31 vote.
West Virginia Sen.
Robert Byrd (D)
was able to vote, and her voted for her.
Sotomayor's 68 votes were greater than Samuel Alito received (58) but less than what John Roberts got (78).
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama stumps for Creigh Deeds
in Virginia, a new poll shows the Democratic gubernatorial candidate trailing Republican Bob McDonnell by eight points, 51%-43%. (Hat tip: J-Mart .) Tim Kaine and Obama were able to get. But McDonnell
is crushing Deeds among independents, 55%-40%. And Deeds also is underperforming among African Americans (22% of them say they're undecided).
Another thing from the poll: Obama's approval in Virginia is 51%-44%. While Research 2000 polls tend to have Obama's overall approval a bit higher than in other national polls, those Virginia numbers are almost identical to Obama's margin in the state from last November -- 53%-46%.
From NBC's Betsy Cline In a speech this morning to the Economic Club of Washington,
Christina Romer
, chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, presented what she called a "clear-eyed assessment" of the stimulus and where it goes from here.
In her remarks, Romer reassured the audience that the government's fiscal stimulus was working, as demonstrated by a slowing in the rise of unemployment and better-than-expected GDP numbers.
She even compared the Recovery Act to an antibiotic prescribed for an infection, saying it's important to follow the regimen for the entire course before determining whether or not it was successful. Romer added she would continue watching the economy's progress through the end of the year before considering a second stimulus. "I think we ought to give it time to work," she said. "If by the end of the year we're not seeing results, we'll start seeing what other things need to be done."
Video: Christina Romer, head of the Council of Economic Advisers joins MSNBC’s Dylan Ratigan to discuss the U.S. economy’s better-than-expected showing in the second quarter. When asked about a tax increase for middle-class families, Romer jokingly asked if she could leave now. She went on to say that health-care reform will lower the deficit, thereby reducing the need to tax middle income Americans. But -- like Treasury Secretary
Tim Geithner and chief White House economics adviser
Larry Summers did over the weekend -- she didn't entirely rule out a middle-class tax increase.
The biggest problem that the stimulus has faced so far? Romer recounted when a blogger misinterpreted an entry and erroneously reported that the government had spent a million dollars on two pounds of ham. In fact, the administration bought 760,000 pounds of ham, in two-pound packages, for food banks, which Romer called a "pretty good value at about $1.50 a pound."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Mark Murray George Voinovich
says he will vote for Sonia Sotomayor , becoming the ninth GOP senator to signal support for the Supreme Court nominee. Sam Brownback's retirement.)
Video: The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan and Msnbc's Joe Scarborough discuss why the Republicans' decision to aggressively vote against Sonia Sotomayor is short-sighted and ill-timed. To put it another way, about half of the Republicans voting for her are retiring....
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray AP reports:
The former mistress of John Edwards has arrived at a federal courthouse in Raleigh where a grand jury is meeting — an appearance that comes as federal investigators examine the two-time presidential candidate's finances.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg To be bipartisan? We know you’ve heard this before, but it does seem like the Senate Finance Committee is getting closer to a bipartisan deal on health care. The Washington Post reports the emerging deal “would shave about $100 billion off the projected trillion-dollar cost of the legislation over the next decade and eventually provide coverage to 94 percent of Americans… It would expand Medicaid, crack down on insurers, abandon the government insurance option that President Obama is seeking and, for the first time, tax health-care benefits under the most generous plans.” This news comes as the bipartisan working group -- Democrats Max Baucus, Jeff Bingaman and Kent Conrad, and Republicans Mike Enzi, Chuck Grassley and Olympia Snowe -- meets with President Obama today at the White House at 11:15 am ET.
Video: Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, talks about the health care reform negotiation process and why a taking a comprehensive look at the entire reform package is more important than setting deadlines. ***
Or not to be bipartisan? Yesterday, in his interview with NBC News, Obama said it was his hope to get a bipartisan bill. But he also said he’s not willing to wait forever. "I am glad that in the Senate Finance Committee there have been a couple of Republicans … who've been willing to negotiate with Democrats to try to produce a bill," Obama said. "But they haven't yet. And I think at some point, some time in September, we're just going to have to make an assessment." More: "I would prefer Republicans working with us on that, because I think it's in the interest of everybody. It shouldn't be a partisan issue... Look, the bottom line is the American people, the American economy, and the federal budget, have to have some sort of reforms in the health-care system. And failure is not an option this year." Just askin’, but how are the president and Democrats responsible for whether the bill is bipartisan when only three Republicans are willing to come to the table? Also just askin': Will the GOP leadership concede, in a political sense, any deal with just three Republicans is bipartisan?
Video: “The Ed Show” guest host Lawrence O’Donnell speaks with Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius about right wing efforts to spin fake grassroots protests as real dissatisfaction with Obama’s leadership on health care. ***
Sotomayor and Clunkers : Today, the Senate completes its big work before departing for its August recess. According to NBC’s Ken Strickland, the final confirmation vote for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor is set for 3:00 pm ET. With all Senate Democrats set to vote for her (minus the absent Robert Byrd and Ted Kennedy), plus at least eight Republicans (Lamar Alexander, Kit Bond, Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham, Judd Gregg, Dick Lugar, Mel Martinez, and Olympia Snowe), she’s set to receive at least 66 votes, which is more than the 58 Alito got but less than Roberts’ 78. The only key undecided vote is Ohio Republican George Voinovich. And if Voinovich does support her, that will mean that FOUR of the party’s five retiring senators so far will have voted her, suggesting the role politics -- especially primary politics -- is playing here on the GOP side. Once the Senate finishes voting on Sotomayor, Strick says, it will turn to “cash for clunkers.” The final vote on that will take place later this evening.
Video: Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., discusses Republicans' votes against Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, who has more federal judicial experience than any other nominee in the last century. ***
All about Fairfax : If you want to know why McLean, VA is the location for President Obama's rally tonight at 7:10 pm ET for Virginia gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds (D), consider this: In the attorney general race Deeds lost by just about 300 votes in 2005, he underperformed Tim Kaine -- who was at the top of the ticket that year -- by almost 10,000 votes in Fairfax County, where McLean happens to be. As it turns out, Deeds lagged Kaine in all the big Northern Virginia counties, in the African-American Hampton Roads area, and near Richmond. By contrast, Deeds, who hails from rural Bath County, did better than Kaine in the western and southwestern part of the state.
*** Is geography destiny? Indeed, Deeds’ race against Bob McDonnell (R), who won that ’05 attorney general race, flips the usual Dem-vs.-GOP map in Virginia. In the past few years, Kaine, Jim Webb, and Barack Obama used (more or less) a simple formula to winning this battleground state: rack up HUGE margins in Northern Virginia, be competitive in the Richmond and Virginia Beach areas, and try to improve your margins in rural Southwest Virginia. But Deeds hails from Bath County in the western part of the state -- which he overwhelmingly won in 2005, but which Kaine lost -- and McDonnell grew up in Northern Virginia, which gives him an attachment to the state that someone like, say, Jerry Kilgore (R) didn’t have four years ago. In short, November’s marquee race could very well come down to this: Does Deeds match the Kaine-Webb-Obama performance in Northern Virginia? Or does McDonnell match what he achieved in 2005?
*** Striking the balance : But geography isn’t Deeds’ only challenge. Per non-partisan Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth, Deeds is facing a political environment where Democrats aren’t as enthusiastic as they were a year ago, where Obama isn’t as popular as he was three months ago, and where Deeds is trying to distance himself from Obama’s policies on energy and card check. Holsworth adds that Deeds is still trying to negotiate how he balances tapping into the excitement still surrounding the president but also keeping his distance on some of the policies. And that’s one of the more interesting things to watch for tonight.
*** Obama’s perception problem, part 2 : Yesterday, we mentioned how some Americans are conflating the stimulus with the auto and bank bailouts. And here’s another perception problem for the White House: There are those who believe that the tax increases on the wealthy -- either through health-care reform or through the expiration of the Bush tax cuts -- are coming this year. One of the questions that the president received from an Elkhart resident was why he was raising taxes during a recession. Obama’s answer: “We have not proposed a tax hike for the wealthy that would take effect in middle of recession.” Folks, the hikes aren’t coming until later. And if the economy hasn’t turned around by then, then Obama has a MUCH bigger problem than a tax increase.
Video: David Lane, CEO of grassroots organization ONE, discusses Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s tough words for Kenyan leadership, whose government is plagued with corruption and poverty. ***
Hillary's “tongue-lashing” : NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that Secretary of State Clinton, while in Kenya, continued to speak out against the Kenyan government's corruption and tolerance of political violence. She urged the audience at a University of Nairobi town hall to take more active roles in cleaning up their government. Kenyan newspapers are headlining what they are calling the secretary's "tongue-lashing." This is continuing with the Obama administration's theme of responsibility and better governance begun by President Obama in his Accra speech. Also, Clinton is meeting with the President of Somalia, whom the U.S. is trying to support in its efforts against that country's Islamist movement. She then heads to South Africa later today.
*** Odds and ends : Elsewhere today, Council of Economic Advisers Christina Romer already gave a speech this morning on the economy, arguing that the stimulus is working. "It is providing a crucial lift to aggregate demand at a time when the economy needs it most. And we anticipate that the effects will build through the end of this year and the beginning of the next," she said. Also today, John Brennan, assistant to the president for homeland security and counterterrorism, will deliver remarks at 11:00 am ET on the administration’s policies to counteract terrorism.
*** TGIT -- Thank Goodness It’s Thursday : A note to our readers: Beginning tomorrow, we won’t be publishing our First Read morning news analysis and round up on Fridays this August. However, we’ll certainly update the Web site when news warrants (like when tomorrow’s job numbers come out). We’re still going to be around on Fridays this month, but we just won’t be setting our alarm clocks for 5:00 am on those mornings…
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 89 days
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The New York Times : “Pressed by industry lobbyists, White House officials on Wednesday assured drug makers that the administration stood by a behind-the-scenes deal to block any Congressional effort to extract cost savings from them beyond an agreed-upon $80 billion… The new attention to the agreement could prove embarrassing to the White House, which has sought to keep lobbyists at a distance, including by refusing to hire them to work in the administration. The White House commitment to the deal with the drug industry may also irk some of the administration’s Congressional allies who have an eye on drug companies’ profits as they search for ways to pay for the $1 trillion cost of the health legislation.”
Video: Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., explains why insurance reform and cost containment are the two most important issues in the health care reform battle. Obama
takes his traveling health-care road show to Portsmouth, N.H ., next Tuesday. "It will be Obama's first foray into the Granite State while president. He stumped there in October, just before the November election. In his electoral landslide, he won the state, despite Republican John McCain's popularity there."
Per a front-page New York Times article, “The Obama administration intends to announce an ambitious plan on Thursday to overhaul the much-criticized way the nation detains immigration violators, trying to transform it from a patchwork of jail and prison cells to what its new chief called a ‘truly civil detention system.’” More: “Details are sketchy, and even the first steps will take months or years to complete. They include reviewing the federal government’s contracts with more than 350 local jails and private prisons, with an eye toward consolidating many detainees in places more suitable for noncriminals facing deportation — some possibly in centers built and run by the government.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post : “Senate negotiators are inching toward bipartisan agreement on a health-care plan that seeks middle ground on some of the thorniest issues facing Congress, offering the fragile outlines of a legislative consensus even as the political battle over reform intensifies outside Washington… Even if the partnership does not result in legislation, Democratic leaders are already contemplating ways to preserve much of what it produces as they look to unite their party and pick up Republican votes when the health-care debate moves to the Senate floor in the fall.”
“After a meeting among Senate Democrats to hone their message on revamping health care, some centrist lawmakers who could deliver crucial votes expressed confidence Wednesday that they would be able to sign on to the legislation and sell it to their constituents back home,” the New York Times adds.
Video: Does health care reform needs bipartisan support in order to be successful? The Nation’s Chris Hayes discusses with Countdown’s Keith Olbermann. “In an interview, Sen. Mike Enzi, a Wyoming Republican, said he was committed to forging a bipartisan consensus on legislation that overhauls the U.S. health-care system,” the
Wall Street Journal says. “But Sen. Enzi said voters so far didn't seem impressed by what the Democratic majority on Capitol Hill has come up with, and predicted members of the House and Senate are in for ‘some nasty, nasty town meetings’ over the August congressional recess. ‘I don't think they like what they see so far,’ the senator said of voters.
Stu Rothenberg calls for a detente of sorts: "A month away from Washington, D.C., even to try to 'sell' the Democratic health care agenda, could well re-energize Pelosi and Hoyer. And given the intensity of the legislative sprint that started at Obama’s inauguration, both parties — as well as the American public — could use a breather."
CONTINUED >>
Sarah Palin isn't the only Republican with a book. Mitt Romney is coming out with another one. The title: “No Apology: The Case for American Greatness.” Romney has criticized President Obama for what he says is apologizing for America around the world. The Boston Globe : "[I]t seems to outline a campaign manifesto for a possible 2012 presidential bid."
Video: Msnbc political analyst Eugene Robinson joins Countdown’s Keith Olbermann to talk about the rough tactics being employed by town hall meeting agitators opposed to health care reform. The
AP has a nice wrap of the back-and-forth between Republicans and the White House over the activists who have showed for many congressional town halls. "Conservative activists are vowing to keep up their fight against President Barack Obama's health care plans, even as the Democratic Party pushes back hard, accusing Republicans of organizing angry mobs… ‘To sit back and say that this is some Republican cabal is a bunch of baloney,’ Steele said.”
More: "The protests have echoes not just of the Tea Parties held around tax day this year, but also of protests during the Florida election recount in 2000 and in the early- to mid-1990s, when Hillary Rodham Clinton traveled the country to promote then-President Bill Clinton's health overhaul plan, which ultimately failed. There's no doubt government attempts to change health care can incite real anger. In 1989, a pack of screaming senior citizens angry about a planned change to Medicare surrounded the car of then-House Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Dan Rostenkowski of Illinois. They shouted 'Liar!' and 'Recall!' and hit Rostenkowski's car with picket signs. Congress subsequently undid the Medicare change. One thing that's different this time around is the Internet, which allows groups to communicate and mobilize on a large scale."
CONTINUED >>
NEW JERSEY : Barack Obama
vs. George Bush for governor of New Jersey? (Corzine wishes.) Not only is the vulnerable Corzine trying to align himself -- closely -- with the sitting president in this blue state, but he is also trying to tie his opponent Chris Christie to George W. Bush. Corzine
released a new campaign ad , “Pioneer,” which “highlights Christie’s past as a fundraiser” for the past president. Bush
appointed Christie as a U.S. Attorney.
VIRGINIA : As Creigh Deeds continues his nine-day tour through “Deeds Country” -- the nickname he’s given a section of rural southwest Virginia -- one thing is clear:
“it apparently isn’t Obama Country.” In many of the small towns Deeds is visiting, “Obama did not break 35 percent of the vote.” Like the campaigns of Virginia Democrats like Tim Kaine and Jim Webb, Obama won Virginia “because he won big in the state’s suburban areas.” It's a delicate balance for Deeds. When he ran for governor, he underperformed Tim Kaine in Northern Virginia, and he needs the president -- who campaigns for him today -- to pump up turnout in the most populous part of the state. Deeds' rural Virginia strategy is a good way to “force Republican Bob McDonnell to spend resources in parts of the state he might have considered safe, according to the Deeds campaign.
Just as Deeds
is trying to “deflect [McDonnell’s] effort to portray him as a more liberal, national-style Democrat,” McDonnell
is “taking the Deeds tack” on whether he supports the nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court.
“If McDonnell comes out for Sotomayor, he risks angering conservatives in his own party.” But “Virginia has a fast-growing Hispanic population, especially in rich-vote Northern Virginia, so McDonnell is also hesitant” to flat-out oppose her nomination.
Look out, the ol' Macker is back. Terry McAuliffe, who hasn’t made much political news since losing to Creigh Deeds in the June 9 gubernatorial primary,
sent out an e-mail to supporters yesterday “encouraging people to sign a Deeds petition calling on Republican Bob McDonnell to apologize for Virginia GOP chairman Pat Mullins’ remark that some college students in Wise County ‘preferred welfare to work.’” The next question: “Is McAuliffe making fundraising calls to his donors on Deeds’ behalf?”
From NBC's Pete Williams
William Jefferson (D-LA) has been found guilty at his bribery trial of 11 of the 16 counts against him -- but not guilty on the other five. He was found NOT GUILTY of the most spectacular charge: planning to bribe an African official with money that was later found in his freezer.
Video: Pete Williams reports on Jefferson's conviction. *** UPDATE *** But the jury still found him guilty of conspiring to pay that bribe, so he stands convicted of one of the charges involving the freezer case.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Rep. Keith Ellison
(D-MN) is spending his August recess in Africa. He went to Kenya and spent today in Sudan. And how did we know about it? Leave it to Twitter.
Khartoum: Gov't officials said ICC indictment of Bashir is counter to Darfurian cause b/ weakens gov'ts ability to deliver services.
Khartoum: Walked out of 2d mtg & ran straight into Pres. Omar Bashir. He has been indicted by the Inter'l Crim. Ct. (ICC) for war crimes.
Khartoum: Had 3 mtgs, one w/ Sudan VP Ali Osman Taha. All argued sanctions & sponsor-of- terror list inappropriate. Talked Human Rights.
4 years ago #Sudan's gov't & SPLM (north & south) signed comprehensive peace agreement (CPA), ending Africa's longest civil war. 2M died.
From NBC’s Matthew Samuels and Alex Beinstein Michael Steele
berated President Obama about the economy, health care and cap-and-trade in an afternoon conference call with reporters.
Steele insisted that the stock market has climbed of late -- in spite of the government’s efforts.
“The stock market is speaking about the economy,” Steele said. “No health care by July 31st, cap-and-trade imploding, markets are doing what they are supposed to do -- heal thyself. More and more people are looking at the market as the solution, not the government.”
CONTINUED >>
NBC Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd interviewed President Obama , as part of msnbc.com's Elkhart Project, from the factory floor where Obama spoke about awarding grants from the stimulus that would benefit Elkhart.
The president talks the economy -- in a place with almost 17% unemployment -- and whether or not he needs Republicans to pass health care.
Full video of the interview here.
From NBC's Athena Jones
President Obama returned to Elkhart County, where he made his first outside-the-beltway trip as president, to announce a grant program to help bring jobs to this struggling community and dozens like it.
The administration is using $2.4 billion in Recovery Act money to help fund 48 projects some two dozen states. The grants will help U.S.-based companies develop and manufacture advanced batteries and electric vehicles, which officials says will result in "tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs" and help reduce America's dependence on foreign oil, an oft-stated goal of the president's.
Video: In an exclusive NBC News interview, President Barack Obama answers questions from NBC’s Chuck Todd and msnbc.com readers in Indiana. Obama told the crowd he understood their economic concerns and sought to explain what his administration was doing to help.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray John Cornyn , chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, couldn't catch a break.
Several GOP senators (including Kit Bond , Judd Gregg , Mel Martinez , and George Voinovich ) announced they were retiring. Arlen Specter then switched parties. And the GOP was finding its standing at all-time lows in polls -- even after George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were no longer in office.
But today, Cornyn held a pen-and-briefing with political reporters to emphasize how things have turned around. Republicans have recruited top prospects (Charlie Crist in Florida, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Mark Kirk in Illinois) to run for the Senate next year. Fundraising is up compared with a year ago. And President Obama's poll numbers are beginning to come back down to earth.
"Who would have even thought six months ago we would be where we are today," he said. "So I am optimistic" about 2010.
During the Q&A, Cornyn was asked if he would endorse
John Ensign for re-election in 2012, especially if he continued to chair the NRSC in the '12 cycle. While noting that Ensign was going through a "tough time," he declined to answer the question. "I'm not going to comment on 2012."
Video: July 28: WashingtonPost.com’s Chris Cillizza and Voto Latino’s Maria Teresa Kumar discuss whether Republicans voting against Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor are courting rejection from Hispanic voters in the next election. Cornyn also was defensive when asked if Senate Republicans were alienating Latinos by voting against Sonia Sotomayor. First, he said that Democrats didn't suffer a Latino backlash after they filibustered Court of Appeals nominee Miguel Estrada. Second, while Hispanics voted for Obama by a 2-to-1 margin in last year's presidential election, he noted that Hispanics are culturally conservative and have the chance to come back into the GOP fold.
And when asked about his reaction to the new DNC Web video criticizing conservative "mobs" at congressional town halls, Cornyn replied, "I think they are American citizens exercising their 1st Amendment rights."
*** UPDATE *** Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Eric Schultz emails First Read: “The Republican strategy of stopping every effort to fix the economy, and stopping every effort to lower health care costs, shows that not only have they not learned any lessons from the past elections but also that they may be a little presumptuous to start singing happy days are here again.”
Below are Cornyn's comments on the 2010 Senate contests…..
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Sen. Kit Bond
, who was previously undeclared, announced during the second hour of floor debate today that he would be supporting Sonia Sotomayor for the U.S. Supreme Court.Mel Martinez (FL, also retiring), Lamar Alexander (TN), Susan Collins (ME), Olympia Snowe (ME), Lindsey Graham (SC), and Richard Lugar (IN).
Hotline notes that the others to watch as possible GOP crossovers: Murkowski , Voinovich , Gregg . Murkowski is set to speak tonight at 7:30.
Sotomayor, at this point, seems on track for 65 votes, subtracting out Kennedy and Byrd , who will likely not vote.
Bond, Hotline notes, said "he will support Sotomayor because he 'rejects' Pres. Obama's standard when he was in the Senate and opposed CJ John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito ."
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Ken Strickland , Bond said at the end of his speech:
"The Senate has reviewed her nomination and has asked her its questions. There's been no significant finding against her. There's been no public uprising against her. I do not believe that the constitution tells me that I should refuse to support her merely because I disagree with her on some cases. I will support her; i'll be proud for her, the community she represents, and the American Dream she shows is possible. I will cast my vote in favor of the nomination of Judge Sotomayor, and I urge my colleagues to do the same."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Back to Indiana: On Feb. 9, about a week before he signed the economic stimulus into law, Obama made his first trip outside of DC since becoming president, to Elkhart, IN, which bills itself as the “RV capital of the world.” Today, he’s headed back to Elkhart County (visiting Wakarusa), where he will deliver remarks on the economy and announce grants for the manufacture of electric vehicles and advanced batteries at 11:55 am ET. When he first traveled to Elkhart, the unemployment rate there was 15.3%; it’s now 16.8% (although that has dropped from 18.9% in March). Previewing today’s visit, the New York Times quotes an Elkhart resident, who says that Obama has “given to the car makers, the banks -- but what about the regular people? All I see around here is empty houses -- a ghost town.”
In an exclusive interview, President Barack Obama answers question from NBC's Chuck Todd and Indiana residents. ***
Obama’s perception problem: That particular quote is similar to what we’ve seen in some polling: that the public has conflated the stimulus, bank bailout, and car bailout all into one deal, when they’re actually very separate things. So the complaint is that the stimulus -- which gave most Americans tax relief, which gave money to states to keep workers employed, and which is financing transportation construction projects -- appears to be going to the HAVES (i.e., corporate America) and not to the HAVE NOTS. A Northern Virginia woman mentioned in a front-page
Washington Post story expresses the same opinion: "Nothing's changed for the common guy. I feel like I've been punked."
*** Elkhart’s the new Peoria: So let’s see today if Obama tries to explain to Elkhart residents -- and the nation -- how the common guy is going to benefit under the administration’s policies. You've heard the line, “How is it playing in Peoria?” Well, Elkhart is this president’s Peoria. How Elkhart goes, so goes the Obama presidency? By the way, one of us is interviewing Obama in Elkhart, asking him questions submitted by residents as part of MSNBC.com’s Elkhart Project .
*** Good news, bad news: Obama isn’t the only administration official hitting the road today to talk about the economy. Vice President Biden
will be in Detroit; Commerce Secretary Gary Locke heads to Kansas City; and Energy Secretary Steven Chu hits Charlotte, NC. All of them have some real green shoots to talk about -- the economy no longer is in a free fall, last week’s GDP numbers suggested that we’re poised for a rebound, and “cash for clunkers” has given the car industry a shot in the arm. But as the
New York Times notes, there’s likely to be some bad news around the corner. “Data to be released on Friday are expected to show that unemployment, 9.5 percent in June, rose again in July, perhaps to more than 10 percent for the first time since 1983. For Americans, double-digit unemployment could be a psychological threshold with political ramifications for Mr. Obama.”
*** Reunited and it feels so good: The plane carrying Bill Clinton and the two American journalists who had been detained in North Korea has landed in California. Also attending the welcome event: Al Gore. So not only are the journalists reunited with their families, but Clinton and Gore are now reunited as well. Also, will all of this lead to something bigger with North Korea? Will this bring them to the multilateral talks?
Video: Rachel Maddow is joined by Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M., to discuss the return of Laura Ling and Euna Lee. ***
2005 vs. 2009: If you’re a reporter who covered politics back in 2005, you know this pretty well: Brad Woodhouse and Americans United (funded by organized labor) helped defeat Bush's Social Security reform. They organized protests, ran TV ads, and held town halls to get members of Congress on the record on Social Security. All of which seems ironic now that Woodhouse -- the current communications director at Obama's DNC -- issued a statement yesterday denouncing the conservative "mobs" at Dem town halls. “Republicans and their allied groups … are inciting angry mobs of a small number of rabid right wing extremists funded by K Street lobbyists to disrupt thoughtful discussions about the future of health care in America taking place in congressional districts across the country,” he said. And now the DNC has upped the ante, producing a Web video, entitled “
Enough of the Mob ,” that conflates these protests with the so-called “birthers.”
Video: WashingtonPost.com’s Chris Cillizza and Politico’s Jeanne Cummings discuss whether the recent town hall protests are the product of real, grassroots rage or are merely a political stunt orchestrated by the right. ***
Fired up, ready to go: A person who was involved in those anti-Social Security reform protests back in ‘05 tells First Read that they discouraged civil disobedience, frowned on arrests, and coached their people to stay on message. Indeed, these anti-Obama, anti-Dem protests do pose a potential risk for the GOP, especially as we see images of devil horns on a relatively popular congressman from liberal Austin, TX, Nazi “SS” references, and even protestors now
joking about Chris Dodd’s cancer . At the same time, however, these conservative protests at Dem town halls are suggesting an enthusiasm from Republicans that we haven’t seen in years. To borrow a phrase from Obama, they’re fired up and ready to go. By comparison, we’re no longer seeing that from Democrats and liberals. Will that begin to change?
*** The Latino vote: With the Senate debating Sonia Sotomayor's Supreme Court nomination, it's worth pointing out how stable Obama's support among Latinos has been since becoming president -- even as his poll numbers are falling back to earth. In our Feb/March poll, Obama's approval among Latinos was at 67%; in April it was 76%; in June it was 71%, and July it was 66%. These percentages are consistent with the exit polls, which showed Obama getting 67% of the Latino vote. On the other hand, Republicans haven't made much progress with Latinos. In Feb./March, the GOP's fav/unfav among Hispanics was 25%-41%; in April it was 26%-50%; in June it was 29%-48%; and in July it was 20%-41%.
*** GOP watch: Texas Sen. John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, holds a pen-and-pad briefing with reporters at 10:30 am ET to discuss the 2010 Senate races. And RNC Chairman Michael Steele holds a conference call at 2:40 pm to discuss Obama’s first 200 days in office (the 200th day actually falls on Friday).
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 90 days
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The New York Times previews Obama’s visit today to Elkhart County, IN. “If there are glimmers of economic improvement in the official statistics out there somewhere, it is hard to find them along the streets of this county, a place best known for making recreational vehicles and all their parts and pieces and where the rise in unemployment was among the sharpest in the nation the past year.”
Video: President Barack Obama visited hard-hit Elkhart, Ind., in the midst of congressional debate over his stimulus proposal. "Venturing back to a region reeling in deep unemployment, President Barack Obama's latest mission in Indiana is to show that the costly stimulus plan he lobbied for is producing tangible help -- $2.4 billion in taxpayer grants to create electric cars and tens of thousands of jobs," the
AP writes, adding, "His stop in Wakarusa, Ind., is part of a concerted economic campaign that also will see Vice President Joe Biden and four Cabinet secretaries holding events in five states. As Congress breaks for the summer, the public message war is on. Obama wants to persuade Americans that his economic agenda is working but also that it will take time to produce the number that people really want: more jobs."
The front-page centerpiece photo on the Boston Globe is President Clinton seated next to North Korea's Kim Jong Il with this headline: "Clinton wins pardons in N. Korea." The Globe called it "a dramatic 20-hour visit" for President Clinton. Some of the background: "About 10 days ago ... [Al] Gore, who cofounded Current TV, the San Francisco-based media company that employs Ling and Lee, called the former president to ask him to undertake the trip. Clinton agreed, as long as the Obama administration did not object.
CONTINUED >>
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says there will be a vote , and GOP Sen. Jim DeMint doesn't plan to block it.
Video: CNBC’s Squawk box discusses proposed legislation that would pay car buyers up to $5,000 for trading in their old clunker and buying a new, fuel-efficient auto that was assembled in the U.S. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus now says there needs to be a deadline for health care. "'We need a deadline,' Baucus told
Roll Call after a meeting between the Senate Democratic Conference and President Barack Obama at the White House. Baucus said the deadline would be 'around Sept. 15,' adding that he hoped Republicans would come around to the idea."
Video: Health industry lobbyists have been disrupting town hall gatherings around America to prevent the spread of information about health care reform. Rachel Maddow is joined by Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-TX.
This isn't going to help those moderate Democratic House members who voted for climate-change legislation... "With the fight over health care reform absorbing all the bandwidth on Capitol Hill, Democrats fear a major climate change bill may be
left on the cutting-room floor this year. A handful of key senators on climate change are almost guaranteed to be tied up well into the fall on health care. Democrats from the Midwest and the South are resistant to a cap-and-trade proposal. And few if any Republicans are jumping in to help push a global warming and energy initiative."
CONTINUED >>
"At least eight former staffers who worked for George W. Bush’s
administration are running for office,"
The Hill's Wilson reports. "Even though President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney left the White House with poor approval ratings, aides who cut their teeth in their administration say the experience was invaluable. Still, it is also likely to hamper their electoral bids."
NEW JERSEY: Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie
will unveil a “sweeping plan today to crack down on political corruption, including harsher penalties for officeholders charged with or convicted of crimes. Two weeks after one of the biggest FBI raids in the state, Christie’s announcement today “marks a shift into politically fertile -- and volatile -- territory for Christie…Democrats and defense attorneys have long criticized Christie for letting politics guide his targets, a charge he denies.” Right after the June 23rd arrests, “Christie said he could not view the allegations in a ‘political context,’” although his campaign has a television ad playing up his anti-corruption creds.
Special-interest groups are “becoming more heavily invested in the New Jersey governor’s race” by donating funds directly to the Republican and Democratic national governors associations: the NRA has given $90,000 to the RGA since December, and the NEA has given $200,000 to the DGA since March, according to CQ Moneyline. Unlike the national groups, which have no contribution limits, New Jersey’s state party can accept “no more than $25,000…and a mere $300 if the donor has business with the state.” In a year with only two gubernatorial races this fall” -- New Jersey and Virginia -- “donors have some assurance that a contribution to the national governor’s association would be spent in New Jersey.” Campaign finance laws are less strict in Virginia, “making it easier for individuals and organizations to give directly to a candidate.” VIRGINIA: Citing a recent poll, Politico's Ben Smith remarks on the disparity of voter intensity between Virginia Democrats and Republicans with regard to the upcoming gubernatorial election. Smith notes that "more McCain voters are rallying to [Republican candidate] McDonnell than Obama voters are to Deeds." He lists some of Virginia Democrat's recent substantial successes: "not only have they won consecutive governor's races, captured both Senate seats... but they ended a 44-year streak of giving their electoral votes to Republicans." In the descent from that electoral high, "getting pumped for yet another governor's race--every four years--isn't easy."
From NBC’s Matthew Samuels
“Leavenworth is not suitable for the 100 most dangerous terrorists in the world,” Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) said on a conference call with reporters, hosted by the Republican National Committee. “Not in Kansas, not in my backyard.
“I am going to do everything I can to block this, even if it means shutting down the Senate.”
Standish is in Michigan’s first congressional district , represented by Democrat Bart Stupak . But Mike Rogers , who represents Michigan’s eighth congressional district, expressed his outrage on the call for the possibility of moving the inmates to his state.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland Mitch McConnell predicted that the Senate will vote on the "cash for Clunkers" funding bill before the end of the week. "What I anticipate is that it will be completed before the end of the week," he said at his weekly press avail.
McConnell explained that part of an agreement to move to a final vote on the bill would allow Republicans to offer amendments. "There are a series of amendments that I think our members think would improve the proposal," he said. But passage of an amendment would make the Senate bill different from the House bill -- and that's the potential problem.
Why? Well, open your "U.S. Government" text books here:
In order for bill to become law, the Senate and the House have to pass the exact same bill -- not a word can be different. The House has already passed its bill and adjourned for the summer. If the Senate passes a different bill, the House would either have to come back off recess to pass it (which is unlikely) or wait until after recess to pass it in September.
Senate Democrats will need to defeat all Republican amendments in order to get the $2 billion out the door fast. A Republican aide suggested the Democratic line against passing amendments would go something like this: "Let's not pass the amendment because it will delay the money. We'd be happy to address it after recess."
From NBC's Danielle Weisberg
commented on a private strategy memo he wrote days before
Barack Obama decided to run for president. In the memo, Axelrod called into question some of his candidates' character traits and their adaptability to political success.
Despite his early concerns, Axelrod told NBC's Savannah Guthrie this afternoon (who was filling in for Mitchell), “At the end of the campaign, my questions were answered.”
Axelrod initially questioned Obama’s ability to take criticism, as Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson
detail in their new book, The Battle for America 2008. “It goes to your willingness and ability to put up with something you have never experienced on a sustained basis: criticism... I don't know if you are Muhammad Ali or Floyd Patterson when it comes to taking a punch. You care far too much what is written and said about you.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Kelly O'Donnell Sen. Baucus repeatedly said, "It's the right thing to do."
Sen. Baucus called their lunch meeting with the president "enthusiastic," "comforting," and a "warm affirmation" that healthcare reform is "so necessary," and pledged to work together with Republicans to get it done "this year."
Video: USA TODAY’s Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page reacts to the health care message wars during the August recess. Sen. Reid also pledged to approve funding for the Cash for Clunkers program before the August recess. He also stressed the efforts still being made on healthcare reform, saying (rough) "there isnt a day that goes by that I dont talk to several people in the White House about healthcare reform...."
NBC News has obtained a copy of the letter from secretaries LaHood and Chu to senators today on the CARS/"Cash for Clunkers" program. They urge support for more funding.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Harry Reid ), Colorado (Michael Bennet , Mark Udall ), Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln , Mark Pryor ), and North Dakota (Kent Conrad , Byron Dorgan ).
The crux of the ad's message draws upon the conservative argument that government-run health care will impact decisions about life and death. "Life and death medical decisions should be made by patients and doctors, not politicians and bureaucrats."
From NBC's Athena Jones
President Obama turns 48 today.
Gibbs said, "I think he had a lot of fun over the weekend, despite some people not believing he bowled a 144."
(You may remember that then-Sen. Obama didn't have a resounding success when he bowled leading up to the Pennsylvania primary.)
*** UPDATE ***
Obama, who posed for a picture with Thomas, said he would leave it up to her how she wants to distribute the cupcakes
From NBC's Mark Murray Sonia Sotomayor's Supreme Court nomination today, it's worth pointing out how stable Obama's support among Latinos has been since he became president -- even with his poll numbers falling back to earth.
In the Feb.-March NBC/WSJ poll, Obama's approval among Latinos was at 67%; in April it was 76%; in June it was 71%, and July it was 66%. These percentages are consistent with the exit polls from November, which showed Obama getting 67% of the Latino vote.
Video: Chris Simcox, founder of the Minutemen Civil Defense Corps, is challenging Sen. John McCain in next year’s senatorial primary. He joins a Morning Meeting panel to discuss the politics behind Sen. McCain’s refusal to support Sonia Sotomayor. On the other hand, Republicans haven't made much progress with Latinos. In Feb.-March, the GOP's fav/unfav among Hispanics was 25%-41%; in April it was 26%-50%; in June it was 29%-48%; and in July it was 20%-41%.
Journalist Tom Edsall, writing for
the Huffington Post , notes that the Republican Party's grievances against the Obama administration are having an effect with white Americans -- Obama's approval with this group has dropped from 54% in Feb.-March to 46% now in the NBC/WSJ poll -- but not with Hispanics or African Americans.
"It's all very reminiscent of the party's notorious Southern Strategy, which carried the GOP for decades," Edsall says. "But that strategy backfired spectacularly in the 2006 and 2008 elections, and there's no reason to think it will work any better in 2010 -- especially given the ever-growing importance of the minority electorate."
More: "In this respect, even if the GOP picks up a few House and Senate seats in 2010, many of the party's top analysts believe that it will remain mired in minority status through 2012 and beyond. Other analysts say it may even decline to the level of a minor regional party, with its only real strength in the South."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Drudge vs. Obama : We know we don’t have to remind our friends in the media and those who follow American politics this simple fact: Matt Drudge isn’t a fan of Obama. But his site’s coverage of Obama has become even more negative as the president’s poll numbers have declined. The latest example came yesterday, when Drudge hyped a sliced-up video (via conservative friend Andrew Breitbart) that savaged Obama on health care. The video purportedly showed Obama advocating the elimination of private health insurance, although the full transcript of that March 2007 event suggested no such thing. While the Obama administration has been hesitant to directly push back against Drudge, it made an exception yesterday with its own Web video on health care, starring its health-care spox, Linda Douglas. By the way, for those who love to complain about a liberal media, explain Drudge and its impact…
Video: NBC’s Savannah Guthrie reports on Former President Bill Clinton's surprise trip to North Korea. ***
The roving ambassador : The breaking news overnight was that Bill Clinton has landed in North Korea to help release the two American journalists held there. As the
Washington Post writes, “Former president Bill Clinton landed in North Korea on Tuesday on an unannounced mission to negotiate the release of two American journalists, marking his first diplomatic mission abroad for the Obama administration in a case that has deeply concerned his wife, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.” White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs issued this statement: "While this solely private mission to secure the release of two Americans is on the ground, we will have no comment. We do not want to jeopardize the success of former President Clinton's mission." What to watch for: Bill isn't shy, so does that mean he'll try a little freelance diplomacy? Or has he been authorized to freelance? The diplomatic palace intrigue, especially considering how the North Koreans love to pomp and circumstance up visiting dignitaries, will keep Clintonologists busy for weeks.
Video: U.S. Sec. of Transportation Ray LaHood joins Hardball’s Chris Matthews to explain why the Obama administration’s “Cash for Clunkers” program’s unexpected success is evidence that additional funding should be provided to keep the program alive.
***
A slam clunk? Majority Leader Harry Reid could try to pass the legislation pumping an additional $2 billion into the “cash for clunkers” program as soon as today, NBC’s Ken Strickland reports. But Republicans senators are in the driver's seat over whether the program gets the money it needs to continue. An objection from a single member, Strick adds, could force Reid to delay the Senate’s August recess, or force the “clunkers” vote into September. GOP Sen. Jim DeMint says he hasn't decided if he'll delay action, but his tone yesterday suggested otherwise. DeMint described the program as "mass chaos" after hearing complaints from home state car dealers. Other Republicans are against it ideologically; they consider it another bailout where the government gets to pick the winners and losers. GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham was on TODAY saying he supports the program. Obama will discuss “clunkers” and health care when he lunches with all Democratic senators later today -- which just happens to be his 48th birthday. Also at today's lunch, will conservative Dems like Ben Nelson complain to the president about the pressure they’re receiving from the left on health care?
*** Primary colors : Just how focused is John McCain
on the primary challenge he’s expected to get next year from Minuteman founder Chris Simcox? Enough, it seems, that he voted against Kathleen Sebelius back in April (when Republicans were criticizing her record on abortion). And yesterday, he announced his intention to vote against Sonia Sotomayor (arguing that she’s a judicial activist). McCain now joins veteran GOP senators Orrin Hatch and Chuck Grassley who are voting against their first Supreme Court nominee, ever. All three had voted to confirm Breyer and Ginsburg. So why the change? There are a number of reasons, including that Obama and Clinton politicized Roberts and Alito, that the NRA decided to score the Sotomayor vote, and that the GOP primary electorate -- in, say, Arizona -- may treat Sotomayor as a litmus test. Still, McCain’s no votes on Sebelius and Sotomayor appear to be head-scratchers to many in Washington, since he preaches bipartisanship and the idea of giving deference to a president.
*** Then and now : Speaking of, here’s a line from a speech McCain delivered last year, per NBC’s Chris Donovan: “When President Bill Clinton nominated Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsberg to serve on the high court, I voted for their confirmation, as did all but a few of my fellow Republicans. Why? For the simple reason that the nominees were qualified, and it would have been petty, and partisan, and disingenuous to insist otherwise. Those nominees represented the considered judgment of the president of the United States. And under our Constitution, it is the president's call to make… It is part of the discipline of democracy to respect the roles and responsibilities of each branch of government, and, above all, to respect the verdicts of elections and judgment of the people. Had we forgotten this in the Senate, we would have been guilty of the very thing that many federal judges do when they overreach, and usurp power, and betray their trust.”
*** PhRMA and Obama : There has been very little reporting on what, exactly, various stakeholders have gotten in return for cutting health-care deals with the White House. Today, the L.A. Times delves into the deal the White House cut with PHRMA and its head, former Dem/GOP Rep. Billy Tauzin. The deal, apparently: "Tauzin said he had not only received the White House pledge to forswear Medicare drug price bargaining, but also a separate promise not to pursue another proposal Obama supported during the campaign: importing cheaper drugs from Canada or Europe. Both proposals could cost the industry billions, undermine its ability to develop new cures and, in the case of imports, possibly compromise safety, industry officials contend." Question: Would candidate Obama, circa 2008, attack a President Obama for taking off the table the Canada drug import issue?
*** Craig in trouble? Is White House Counsel Greg Craig’s job in jeopardy? That’s what the Wall Street Journal says. (Note that Craig represented Bill Clinton during the impeachment proceedings, but was a key foreign policy aide to Obama during the presidential campaign.) “Obama administration officials are holding discussions that could result in White House counsel Gregory Craig leaving his post, following a rocky tenure, people familiar with the matter said.” However, the article doesn't really offer a reason why he would be ushered out, the White House is pushing back HARD on this rumor, and the piece really doesn’t seem to characterize its sourcing.
*** Specter vs. Sestak : Joe Sestak will make his primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter official today, setting up one of the best primary races for next year’s midterms. Sestak already kicked things off at 8:30 am ET in Folsom, PA. He then holds an events in Pittsburgh (at 1:30 pm) and Johnston (5:00 pm), and he will also appear on MSNBC’s “Hardball.”
*** The more things change, the more they stay the same… : One of us yesterday penned a piece about how Obama, who campaigned on changing the ways of Washington, has continued one its oldest traditions: rewarding top fundraisers with plum overseas posts. That this is still happening -- even after a campaign in which Barack Obama raised so much money from small donors -- suggests just how dominant money (and the people who can raise it) is in American politics. “As long as there have been big campaign contributions, big fundraisers have gotten plum assignments,” said Georgetown professor Clyde Wilcox, who studies campaign finance. He added, “Even during the Lincoln presidency, people who marshaled together political machines needed to be accommodated… Rewarding your political supporters is as old as the republic."
*** Do we need these posts anymore? Of course, this begs the question: Do these positions matter anymore? Should the American taxpayer pay for pricey residences in far-off lands that are far from danger zones? Most foreign policy observers say that, yes, they do matter, because removing these posts would reduce access to key leaders and be seen as a “slap in the face” to other countries. What’s more, you never know when -- or where -- a crisis could happen. Still, they say, they wish the practice would change.
*** 2009 watch : As a new poll (Monmouth University/Gannett ) shows Chris Christie with a 14-point lead in the race for New Jersey governor, the Corzine campaign has launched a TV ad featuring Obama from his campaign stop last month. (Hat tip: Cillizza.)
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 91 days
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The New York Times front-pages, “The fate of the ‘cash for clunkers’ program remained uncertain on Monday even as sales figures from automakers demonstrated that people had flocked to dealers to trade in old gas guzzlers. The White House urged the Senate to add $2 billion to the program, as the House voted to do last Friday before leaving for its August recess. Still, dealers around the country stopped promising the rebates to car shoppers on Monday, because of uncertainty about how much of the $1 billion initially allocated had been used up, or when or whether more money would be available. The Senate begins its recess this Friday.”
Video: Why are Congressmen on both sides of the aisle opposed to extending the Cash for Clunkers program? Rachel Maddow is joined by Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-OH. The
AP : "Senate discussions are expected to continue Tuesday after the Obama administration and backers of the ‘cash for clunkers’ program picked up support from three lawmakers who wanted the program limited to the purchase of even more fuel-efficient vehicles."
Turning to the economy… “In public appearances this week, President Obama will attempt to regain the initiative on the economy after what one senior administration official called several ‘rocky’ weeks of declining support for the president and his major policy efforts,” the
Washington Post says. “He and his Cabinet advisers will fan out across several swing states to declare that the recovery has moved from the rescue stage to rebuilding, even though unemployment continues to increase.”
Health care: L.A. Times uncovers just what the Obama admin promised the pharmaceutical industry in return for their support. "For his part, [PHRMA head Billy] Tauzin said he had not only received the White House pledge to forswear Medicare drug price bargaining, but also a separate promise not to pursue another proposal Obama supported during the campaign: importing cheaper drugs from Canada or Europe. Both proposals could cost the industry billions, undermine its ability to develop new cures and, in the case of imports, possibly compromise safety, industry officials contend.”
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Senate debate begins today on Sonia Sotomayor’s Supreme Court nomination, the L.A. Times writes. “[W]ith the outcome assured, the only remaining questions are whether the National Rifle Assn. can claim to have swayed votes against her and whether President Obama can claim a victory for bipartisanship.”
The AP adds, "Republicans have lined up almost solidly against President Barack Obama's nominee, taking what strategists in both parties call a steep political risk in opposing Sotomayor, although a handful of GOP senators are siding with Democrats to support her.”
Video: Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, previews the Senate vote on the appointment of Supreme Court nominee Judge Sonia Sotomayor. According to
Roll Call , "Anyone looking for high drama or a nail-biter of a vote will likely be disappointed, as the outcome is all but guaranteed." Kennedy and Byrd are not expected to vote Thursday on her confirmation, which leaves 58 Democrats for her. And six Republicans for her (Graham, Alexander, Lugar, Snowe, Collins, Martinez). That would give 64 votes. The paper wonders if the Alaska senators might go the opposite way of their respective parties. "[T]he only major question marks on the final tally come from Alaska Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R) and Mark Begich (D). Murkowski, vice chairwoman of the Republican Policy Committee, has often charted an independent course from her party, and she could join Alexander as the only members of the GOP hierarchy to back Sotomayor’s nomination. Begich, meanwhile, is one of a handful of Democratic moderates whom conservatives and the National Rifle Association have targeted as possible converts in the waning days of the confirmation process."
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Sarah Palin received a slew of honorary gun memberships while addressing the NRA in Anchorage, so reports the NRA on
its blog .
The National Republican Congressional Committee sent out a hit list of 70 seats it hopes to challenge in. Last week, Chairman Pete Sessions said he'd like to get that number up to 80. Republicans are down 79 seats in the U.S. House and would need a pick up of 41 to regain a majority this cycle.
COLORADO : Former GOP Rep. Bob Beauprez appears to be leaning toward running for Senate against Dem appointee Michael Bennet.
NEW HAMPSHIRE : "While national Republicans are quickly falling in line behind former New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, several local party activists said they are still unsure what kind of candidate she will be in the Granite State’s 2010 Senate race," Roll Call writes. "Although most Republicans only had kind words to say about the telegenic Ayotte, even her supporters had a hard time describing her political leanings. Meanwhile, several other Republicans are considering running for the Senate and could force a divisive primary that wouldn’t be decided until just a few months before the winner will face the likely Democratic nominee, Rep. Paul Hodes."
"The National Republican Senatorial Committee has not endorsed anyone in New Hampshire, but they are making little secret of which candidate they want to win the nomination," The Hill adds. "… Ayotte (R), who resigned last month in order to explore a race, will benefit from a fundraiser at NRSC headquarters on Sept. 22, according to an invitation for the event."
NEW JERSEY : New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie is now 14 percentage points (50%-36) ahead of Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll .
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From NBC's Ken Strickland Dianne Feinstein and Susan Collins had previously expressed concerned that the program wasn't strong enough on promoting fuel efficiency.
Video: The government's cash for clunkers program gives July auto sales a boost amid doubts about whether it will continue beyond this week. CNBC's Phil LeBeau reports. But concerns have been eased after being briefed by the White House on the program's preliminary data, according to a senate aide. The senators are holding a news conference at 5:00 pm ET today in the Senate studio.
The remaining hurdle appears to be on the Republican side of the aisle where some feel the program is just another government bailout. Their objections would likely cause a procedural slowdown, delaying a vote until after the recess in September.
From NBC's Ken Strickland Mike Enzi .
"I have not and will not agree to an artificial deadline, because I am committed to getting health-care reform right, not finishing a bill by some arbitrary date," Enzi said in a written statement today. Enzi, Grassley and Snowe are the three Republican members of a bipartisan committee group drafting a compromise proposal.
Video: Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis talks about how Democrats will manage right wing protestors and other political saboteurs who threaten to derail the Democrats’ health care agenda. "Improving access to quality, affordable health care for American families is too important to do hastily. Additionally, since many of the policies under discussion will not take effect for a number of years, we should focus on the goal of meaningful reform and not rush to meet timelines."
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro President Obama
, who has vowed to “change the ways of Washington,” has not only continued this tradition of his predecessors, he has outpaced them.
In the past 50 years, the average percentage for political appointees has been about 30 percent, according to AFSA. The practice increased under George W. Bush -- 36 percent of his picks were political. (Jimmy Carter appointed the least at 24 percent.) Because many of the political appointments are made early on in a presidency, Obama’s percentages will likely decrease; as more ambassadors are named, more are likely to be career Foreign Service.
At a January news conference, then-President-elect Obama did acknowledge that "there probably will be some" ambassadors chosen who were top donors. “It would be disingenuous for me to suggest that there are not going to be some excellent public servants but who haven’t come through the ranks of the civil service,” he said. The White House is focused on the 30-percent target, but not necessarily reducing the number. Groups like AFSA have advocated for the average to be lowered to 10 percent.
Some foreign policy observers say that if Obama is not going to change the practice, then perhaps some of these posts should be eliminated all together. They argue the positions are outdated, a waste of money, and have long gone to political appointees who may have little prior knowledge of the region to which they are assigned. Others aren’t convinced. They say removing these posts would reduce access to key leaders, be seen as a “slap in the face” to other countries, and, they stress, one never knows when -- or where -- a crisis could happen.
For the full story, click here
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Domenico Montanaro John McCain
said today he will vote against Sonia Sotomayor , President Obama 's pick to be the next U.S. Supreme Court Justice. Bill Clinton nominee Ruth Bader Ginsberg , for example.
"There is no doubt that Judge Sotomayor has the professional background and qualifications that one hopes for in a Supreme Court nominee," McCain said in a statement today on the floor of the U.S. Senate. He added, "And obviously, Judge Sotomayor's life story is inspiring and compelling."
But, "an excellent resume and an inspiring life story are not enough to qualify one for a lifetime of service on the Supreme Court," McCain said. He cited, as have other Republicans Miguel Estrada , a Hispanic who was nominated by President Bush for the DC Circuit Court but blocked by Democrats. He added that he does "not believe that she [Sotomayor] shares my belief in judicial restraint." And: "Though she attempted to walk back from her long public record of judicial activism during her confirmation hearings, Judge Sotomayor cannot change her record."
Video:
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, previews the Senate vote on the appointment of Supreme Court nominee Judge Sonia Sotomayor later this week. Here's McCain's full statement, made on the floor of the U.S. Senate:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
"Why do the health insurance companies and Republicans want to kill President Obama’s health insurance reform?" the ad, goes. "Because they like things the way they are now. Ed Hanway, CEO of insurance giant Cigna, makes $12.2 million a year. That’s $5,883 an hour. Ed makes more in one day, than the average worker makes all year long."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg The battle for Congress: With the House on its recess and with six months into the Obama administration, now’s about as good of a time as any to look at the battle for Congress that will take place some 450 days (!!!) from today. Currently, Dems hold a 79-seat advantage in the House (256-177, with two vacancies). That means for Republicans, to regain the majority in House (i.e., get 218 seats), they must net 41 seats. While it’s unlikely that the GOP will be able to pick up that many seats, Republicans have history, the map, and (it’s starting to seem) the political winds at their back to regain a chunk of congressional seats in 2010. Below is everything you wanted to know about next year’s House races but were afraid to ask. We’ll take a stab at the Senate races next Monday, after the Senate has embarked on its August recess.
*** History’s on the GOP’s side: As for the history, the first midterm election for a sitting president hasn’t been kind to that president’s political party: Since the end of World War II, every president except one -- George W. Bush, after 9/11 -- has seen his party lose House seats. In fact, since 1946, an incumbent president's party has lost an average of 26 seats in his first midterm election (that includes 1974, after Ford had succeeded Nixon after Watergate). The worst performance was in 1994, when the Democrats lost 57 seats. The second-worst was in 1946, when Dems lost 55 seats. The best performance was in 2002, when Republicans actually netted two congressional seats. Now keep in mind, as true math freaks will tell you, we actually haven't had enough elections to make these numbers statistically significant. Still, it's a trend that does matter…
*** So is the map: As for the map, Republicans appear to have more potential pick-up opportunities heading into 2010. There are 49 Democratic-controlled congressional districts that McCain won last year (most of them in the South, the very districts represented by those Blue Dogs). By comparison, there are 34 GOP-controlled congressional districts that Obama won (many of them in blue states like California, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania). What's more, after their big gains in 2006 and 2008 -- in down years for Republicans -- Democrats may very well have hit a ceiling. Translation: Even with the 34 Republican-controlled districts that Obama won, Democrats have nowhere to go but down. But GOPers have this slight problem: Some of their very best incumbents in blue states (Mark Kirk, Jim Gerlach, perhaps Mike Castle) are running for statewide office, which means these seats will probably flip back to the Democrats next year.
*** One big difference: Yet keep in mind that 2010 isn't 1994 in this one respect: The 1992 election actually provided hints of the 1994 tsunami (redistricting, strength of anti-establishment Perot etc.; Republicans actually did well in 1992 House races and picked up senate seats). So 1992's results scared a number of Dems and led to a lot of retirements -- making 1994 even more difficult for their party. Remember, MSNBC's Morning Joe won his Dem-held House seat in an open seat contest; the conservative southern Dem decided to retire. We're not seeing this same pattern for 2010 just yet. Democrats seem to have the ability to have insulated themselves from a 1994- or 1946-like result.
*** The answer my friend is blowing in the wind: And as far as the political winds go, Republicans are faring much better in polls' generic-ballot tests. In last week’s NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats held a seven-point advantage over Republicans in the generic ballot, 46%-39% -- the smallest edge for Dems since April 2006. In fact, since Hurricane Katrina, Democrats typically had a double-digit advantage over the GOP. In addition, an NPR poll showed Republicans with a one-point edge in its generic-ballot test. As Charlie Cook wrote on National Journal on Friday, “It is too soon to say that Republicans have captured the momentum or hold the advantage, but a shrinking Democratic edge will almost surely precede a reversal, hence the understandable anxiety on the Democrats’ part as they continue wrestling with health care…”
*** The Dems’ clear state advantage: But new Gallup numbers -- taken in the first half of this year -- are an important reminder why it’s still going to be difficult for the Republican Party to become the majority anytime soon. According to these numbers, Democrats have a clear advantage in 30 states (plus DC), while Republicans have an advantage in just FOUR states. In short, Democrats have firewalls that the GOP doesn’t have anymore. Just look at these top-10 lists. The Democrats’ top-10 states: DC (65-point advantage), Massachusetts (34-point advantage), Hawaii (29 points), Maryland (28 points), Vermont (28 points), Rhode Island (27 points), Illinois (26 points), New York (25 points), Connecticut (25 points), California (22 points). The Republicans’ top-10 states: Utah (23-point advantage), Wyoming (21 points), Idaho (13 points), Alaska (11 points), Alabama (6 points), Mississippi (1 point), North Dakota (even), Nebraska (even), Kansas (-2 points), and Arizona (-2 points). Wow.
Video: National Economic Council Director Larry Summers discusses the state of the beleaguered U.S. economy with NBC’s David Gregory on “Meet the Press.” ***
Selling the new normal: That's what Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (on Saturday) and chief White House economic adviser Larry Summers (on Sunday) were selling. They were both asked tax hypotheticals, and both left themselves wiggle room. But wouldn't it have been news -- and some might argue irresponsible -- if they answered any other way? How were they supposed to answer? Is it any different than asking a foreign policy team member about ruling out military intervention in, say, Iran? By the way, Cash for Clunkers is coming at a great time for the Obama administration. It's an easy-to-understand government program. And the demand for it, coming the same week as the GDP news (which is harder to explain), allows for a better story to tell about any evidence of an economic recovery. Can Republicans like John McCain and Jim DeMint stop it? One other Clunkers thought: The Dems are re-directing stimulus money to fund it. Could this be a sign of things to come with the stimulus in which congressional Dems redirect it if they decide they can't politically actually ASK for a second stimulus?
*** Memories, like the corners of my mind…: Anyone who is a fan of First Read and politics will no doubt love the new book on the 2008 election by Dan Balz and Haynes Johnson, “The Battle for America 2008.” On Sunday, the Washington Post excerpted a portion of it (featuring an interview with Obama). Today’s installment looks at McCain’s choice of Palin as his VP. Also, on Sunday, the two authors were on "Meet the Press," where they laid out some lessons they've taken away from the campaign about how the president is and will continue to govern.
*** The Great American Health Care Fight: With the House on recess, there are several previews in the papers about the August health-care campaign… In fact, we’re getting more trickles of how the recess will play out: It will be Dems v. insurance industry, and GOPers vs. Obama… Obama is traveling to the West to sell the health plan… And John Boehner’s office has a new Web ad (with “Young & The Restless music in the background) hitting Obama on health care.
Video: With August just one day away, MSNBC political analyst Eugene Robinson talks about the progress made on the heath care front and where it’s likely to end up now that Congress is on vacation. ***
Other odds and ends: In an op-ed, is CIA chief Leon Panetta
sending a signal to Congress to stop the Bush-era intel probes?... The Washington Post has a
C.W.-setting piece noting that Dems are still using Bush as punching bag still… And Tim Pawlenty
continues his subtle differentiation with Romney on the issue of health care.
***
Obama’s day: The president delivers remarks on the post-9/11 GI Bill at George Mason University at 11:05 am ET. After that, at 12:30 pm, he meets at the White House with the emir of Kuwait.
*** And did you know? At the end of the New York Times’ profile of Tom Arnold, per MSNBC’s Brooke Brower, it says he’s going to shoot a movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger and James Cameron the day after Arnold leaves the governor’s mansion. So does this mean Schwarzenegger's political career is more over than he's hinted publicly?
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 92 days
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The Washington Post frames what the politics of the August recess will look like. "Democrats leave town for the August recess with frayed nerves and fragile agreements on health-care reform, and a new bogeyman to fire up their constituents: the insurance industry. With the House already gone and the Senate set to clear out by Friday, the terms of the recess battle are becoming clear. Republicans will assail the government coverage plan that Democrats and President Obama are advocating as a recklessly expensive federal takeover of health care. And Democrats will counter that GOP opposition represents a de facto endorsement of insurance industry abuses."
Video: White House Senior Advisor David Axelrod joins Countdown guest host Richard Wolffe to discuss conservatives’ strategy of disrupting Democratic town hall meetings during the August recess to derail the Democrats’ health care agenda. The
New York Times does a similar piece, and notes that it appears August is going to be a month that Dems and the Obama admin focus their health-care fire on the insurance industry. "The effort will feature town-hall-style meetings by lawmakers and the president, including a swing through Western states by Mr. Obama, grass-roots lobbying efforts and a blitz of expensive television advertising. It is intended to drive home the message that revamping the health care system will protect consumers by ending unpopular insurance industry practices, like refusing patients with pre-existing conditions.”
The AP looks at distortions in the health-care debate: "Confusing claims and outright distortions have animated the national debate over changes in the health care system. Opponents of proposals by President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats falsely claim that government agents will force elderly people to discuss end-of-life wishes. Obama has played down the possibility that a health care overhaul would cause large numbers of people to change doctors and insurers."
Video: National Economic Council Director Larry Summers discusses President Barack Obama’s plan to overhaul the U.S. health care industry with NBC’s David Gregory on “Meet the Press.” How to tepidly sell good news? That's the challenge for the Obama administration this week and, perhaps, for the next few months. They started their effort over the weekend with interviews by top economic advisers -- Geithner in a taped interview on ABC on Saturday and Summers in live interviews on Sunday. It was another weekend of selling the idea that we've hit bottom. Now the question is what the recovery will look like.
CONTINUED >>
A key House committee, Energy and Commerce, passed health care late Friday night 31-28. The House went on recess Friday and now has off for August. The Senate continues to try and hammer out a deal. It goes on vacation this upcoming Friday.
The Boston Globe : "Democrats and the White House have spent much of the last year flaunting the newfound cooperation of old enemies like drug companies and the insurance industry. But now they face a new political calculus. The House left Washington on Friday afternoon without a floor vote on a overhaul, the Senate, which leaves this Friday, is even farther behind."
Video: Dan Balz, Haynes Johnson, former Rep. Harold Ford Jr., D-Tenn., and former Rep. J.C. Watts, R-Okla., discuss President Barack Obama’s plan to overhaul the U.S. health industry with NBC’s David Gregory on “Meet the Press.” Without Senate approval of the $2 billion more for "Cash for Clunkers," the program
would have to be suspended , Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said Sunday.
And Republican Senators like John McCain and Jim DeMint are
vowing to lead the charge against more "Clunkers" funding.
CONTINUED >>
Retiring Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
has an op-ed on health care in the
Washington Post . "Instead of returning power to patients and rewarding positive outcomes, many Democrats in Washington want a government-run plan that would require states to comply with dozens of new mandates and regulations… In typical fashion, the self-proclaimed experts piecing together this Democratic health-care legislation are focusing on only one leg -- access -- of a three-legged stool that also includes cost and quality. Expanding access to health care is a worthwhile goal. But equal or greater focus should be placed on containing costs for the vast majority of Americans who already have insurance. Those costs will not be contained by a massive expansion of federal programs." And don't miss this... a shot at Romney? "Massachusetts's experience should caution Congress against focusing primarily on access."
As we mentioned above, there are 49 Democratic-controlled congressional seats that John McCain won last year. They are, courtesy of Swing State Project: AL-2 Bright, AL-5 Griffith, AR-1 Berry, AR-2 Snyder, AR-4 Ross, AZ-1 Kirkpatrick, AZ-5 Mitchell, AZ-8 Giffords, CO-3 Salazar, CO-4 Markey, FL-2 Boyd, FL-24 Kosmas, GA-8 Marshall, ID-1 Minnick, IN-8 Ellsworth, IN-9 Hill, KY-6 Chandler, LA-3 Melancon, MD-1 Kratovil, MN-7 Peterson, MO-4 Skelton, MS-1 Childers, MS-4 Taylor, NC-7 McIntyre, NC-11 Shuler, ND-AL Pomeroy, NM-2 Teague, NY-13 McMahon, NY-29 Massa, OH-6 Wilson, OH-16 Boccieri, OH-18 Space, OK-2 Boren, PA-3 Dahlkemper, PA-4 Altmire, PA-10 Carney, PA-12 Murtha, PA-17 Holden, SC-5 Spratt, SD-AL Herseth-Sandlin, TN-4 Davis, TN-6 Gordon, TN-8 Tanner, TX-17 Edwards, UT-2 Matheson, VA-5 Perriello, VA-9 Boucher, WV-1 Mollohan, and WV-3 Rahall.
And there are 34 GOP-controlled congressional seats that Obama won last year: CA-3 Lungren, CA-24 Gallegly, CA-25 McKeon, CA-26 Dreier, CA-44 Calvert, CA-45 Bono-Mack, CA-48 Campbell, CA-50 Bilbray, DE-AL Castle, FL-10 Young, FL-18 Ros-Lehtinen, IA-Latham, IL-6 Roskam, IL-10 Kirk, IL-13 Biggert, IL-16 Manzullo, LA-2 Cao, MI-4 Camp, MI-6 Upton, MI-8 Rogers, MI-11 McCotter, MN-3 Paulsen, NE-2 Terry, NJ-2 Lobiondo, NJ-7 Lance, NY-23 McHugh, OH-12 Tiberi, PA-6 Gerlach, PA-15 Dent, VA-4 Forbes, VA-10 Wolf, WA-8 Reichert, WI-1 Ryan, and WI-6 Petri.
The Washington Post has a piece that will quickly turn into cocktail party conventional wisdom: the two major Dem candidates in New Jersey and Virginia are still trying to link their GOP foes with Bush. "The strategy is aimed at defusing Republican attacks on Obama's administration by refocusing attention on how unhappy people were when Bush was in charge. And in New Jersey and Virginia, it is designed to recapture the electoral enthusiasm that brought Democrats victory last year.”
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