First thoughts: Obama's good, bad news

Posted: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Good news and bad news: The (relatively) good news for the Obama White House in the new NBC News poll is that the contours of the health-care debate haven’t really changed that much since those raucous congressional town-hall meetings began about two weeks ago. The bad news, however, is that the American public continues to have concerns about the president’s plans, and this comes after a big-time P.R. blitz from the president himself and supporters using millions in TV ads. Consider: 40% (a plurality) believe the plans would worsen the quality of health care, only 41% approve of President Obama’s handling of issue, and 54% are more worried that the government will go too far in reforming the nation’s health system than they are concerned the reform won’t do enough to reduce costs and cover the uninsured. Still, there is an appetite for reform. A combined 60% of respondents say the system needs either a “complete overhaul” or “major reform.” But that combination has declined 10 points since April, and the percentage wanting a “complete overhaul” has dropped 12 points since that time.

*** What’s in it for me? In short, the president can't get across the "what's in it for us?" part of his health-care message. Folks with private insurance, in particular, are becoming more negative about his reform proposals. Clearly, the White House is seeing similar polling results as the president's last three town-hall meetings were about health INSURANCE reform and were an attempt to answer the "what's in it for me?" question so many folks WITH insurance have.

*** Rampant misinformation: One of the reasons why the public appears so wary about Obama’s health-care plans is due to all the misinformation out there. Majorities in the poll believe the plans would give health insurance coverage to illegal immigrants (55%), would lead to a government takeover of the health system (54%), and would use taxpayer dollars to pay for women to have abortions (50%) -- all claims that nonpartisan fact-checkers say are untrue about the legislation that has emerged so far from Congress. Additionally, 45% think the reform proposals would allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing medical care for the elderly, which also isn’t true. When you have nearly half of the public believing that the government is willing to pull the plug on grandma, you’re in trouble.

*** FOX vs. CNN/MSNBC: Here’s another way to look at the misinformation: In our poll, 72% of self-identified FOX News viewers believe the health-care plan will give coverage to illegal immigrants, 79% of them say it will lead to a government takeover, 69% think that it will use taxpayer dollars to pay for abortions, and 75% believe that it will allow the government to make decisions about when to stop providing care for the elderly. But it would be incorrect to suggest that this is ONLY coming from conservative viewers who tune in to FOX. In fact, 41% of CNN/MSNBC viewers believe the misinformation about illegal immigrants, 39% believe the government takeover stuff, 40% believe the abortion misperception, and 30% believe the stuff about pulling the plug on grandma. What’s more, a good chunk of folks who get their news from broadcast TV (NBC, ABC, CBS) believe these things, too. This is about credible messengers using the media to get some of this misinformation out there, not as much about the filter itself. These numbers should worry Democratic operatives, as well as the news media that have been covering this story.

*** The swing-vote coalition: Obama’s overall approval rating in the poll is 51%, a two-point drop since last month and a 10-point decline since April. Obama continues to fare well with the coalition that propelled him to the White House -- among blacks, Hispanics, 18-29 year olds, urban residents, and those with post-graduate degrees. But according to our NBC co-pollsters, the president isn’t performing as well with key swing-voter groups -- independents (46%-42% approve/disapprove), seniors (47%-45%), and suburban women. And seniors and suburban women are the primary users of the health-care system; they know the intricacies of the insurance industry more so than most folks, and so losing them may be DIRECTLY related to health care right now. One other thing worth pointing out: While the approval of Obama’s handling of health care is at 41%, the public doesn’t seem to trust the Republican Party at all on the issue; just 21% approve of the GOP’s handling of health care.

*** Obama’s and Biden’s day: At 4:30 pm ET today, President Obama will deliver remarks from the White House honoring 2008 Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson. An hour later, the president will host a conference with faith leaders to discuss health reform. Also today, Vice President Biden and Education Secretary Arnie Duncan head to the battleground state of Florida to argue how the stimulus has benefited the state (the administration says that 26,000 education jobs in Florida have been saved, and that the state has received $3.1 billion in stimulus funds for education and $8.3 billion in overall stimulus funds).

*** Obama’s Thursday: Obama also will have an interesting Thursday. The White House tells First Read that the president tomorrow will be a guest on conservative talk-radio host Michael Smerconish’s program, and they’ll discuss health-care reform. Smerconish will broadcast his program from Diplomatic Room at the White House, and it will be the first radio show to be broadcast from the White House since Obama took office. Also on Thursday, Obama will participate in a strategy session -- by phone and online -- on health care with supporters from his Organizing for America list.

*** A thaw in the freeze? NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports that two North Korean diplomats will be meeting in Santa Fe, NM for the next two days with Gov. Bill Richardson. This is their first trip since 2007, when they helped arrange Richardson's trip to Pyongyang to recover the remains of U.S. soldiers. Mitchell adds that all this activity is the first sign of a real opening after a year of escalating tension, including North Korea’s nuclear tests and missile firings. Also, The meeting with Richardson comes only one day after Bill Clinton and President Obama met at the White House to discuss Clinton’s recent trip to Pyongyang, when he brought back journalists Laura Ling and Euna Lee.

*** Bob Novak: The most immediate legacy of longtime columnist/reporter Bob Novak is the Valerie Plame incident. That's too bad. Novak was a trailblazer; he was among the first class of print reporters who made the jump to TV pundit/analyst. Novak opened the door for a lot of folks to walk through over the last 40 years. He was a columnist with a point of view, who grounded his writings with reporting. Too many ideological columnists these days simply spout off. Novak certainly could spout off on the capital-gains tax or the U.S. policy toward Israel, but he spent as much time actually reporting, actually working sources, actually trying to uncover a great political nugget or two. Was there anything more fun to read, as a political junkie, than his Saturday notebook column in the Chicago Sun-Times? Here's hoping some ideological bloggers/columnists out there today truly look at Novak's work in its entirety and learn from his ethic -- which was that you can have more success getting a point of view across if you actually do your homework and do real reporting. And then there were his vests... Nobody could pull off the three-piece suit like Bob Novak (or those red sweater vests at Christmas). RIP.

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 76 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 440 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7422971/
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Democrats are going it alone on health insurance reform? How is that any different then what they've been doing up until now? The only Republican the Democrats have talked to has been Charles Grassley. The Democrats have locked the Republicans out of any discussions in the House. It's doubtful Pelosi even talks much with the Blue Dog Democrats.

And the problem isn't with the Democrats doing any kind of negotiation with the Republicans. The problem is with the Democrats, they are split pretty much down the middle. There is not one plan in Congress today that will get voted out of Congress and sent to Obama for his signature. That's not the Republicans fault, it's the Democrats fault. If the Democrats leave the Public Option in, the Senate won't vote for it. If you leave the Public Option out, the House liberals won't vote for it. Each bill is Dead On Arrival.

Lynn Wheatly (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:22 AM)

Today is Wednesday - Is this a day that Obama is for or against the Public Option?

Need A Scorecard (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:23 AM)

Andy Rooney Chats with Ron:

I enjoy the section in Newsweek that has a picture of a politician accompanied by an arrow point up, down, level. Since this is summer break and most politicians are on vacation I thought I would give my assessment of MSNBC talking heads. Being cranky, I don’t know how to make arrows on my computer…and I’m too old to ask.

Ed Schultz: Level: Most progressives like him, my wife likes him, but to me he is a bit loud and like a cheerleader. I have to turn the volume down when he is talking. Not a deep thinker, but he is right there for Main Street Americans.

Chris Matthews: Down: He received a down arrow because his replacements did a better job on Hardball than he does. He doesn’t give guests time to answer his questions and that annoys me. Chris tolerates Pat Buchanan and that automatically gives him a down arrow.

Keith Olbermann: Up: All you conservatives can stop reading now, but I like him. When he starts ranting, it’s time to fasten my seatbelt because it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next 12 minutes.

Rachel Maddow: Up: I don’t like it when she acts “nerdy”, but she is smart and does her homework. Her research is exceptional and she may be the leader in demonstrating to other media pundits how to separate facts from fiction when going after a story. Because she is respectful and asks intelligent questions, a variety of guests willingly come on her show.

Lawrence O’Donnell: Up: If I didn’t say up, I would lose my friends, Feisty and Pat. Intelligent, strong, yet knows when to be gentle. I listen when he is talking because he balances experience and wisdom.

David Gregory: Down, Way Down: The “King of Gotcha” with little insight. Jeff Zuker is waiting till his ratings become so low they have to reach up to touch bottom. Now that’s low!

Chuck Todd: Level: He gets to ride on Air Force One with the President to visit Russia, Egypt and Montana. Forget Montana. He is a numbers guy and I bet he sits in the back of the plane doing Sudoku puzzles. Todd has a level arrow because he is misplaced. A brilliant analyst and political mind who should be doing something different than hanging around the Presidential press corps. Move over David and make room for Chuck…or Larry.

Ron Indiana (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:23 AM)

Unlike Obama, President Bush was able to get things done for the country. He had to moderate his views on many big bills to attract Democrats to vote for his programs in a bi-partisan way. Medicare drug program, No Child Left Behind (recall Bush did that one with Ted Kennedy, the Iraq war, the Afghanistan war, all done in bi-partisan fashion. Bush was able to unite the country and get things done. Obama hasn't been able to do the same. Obama ran on being above the partisanship, he was the one that would unite the country. Instead on one level Obama has driven a wedge between the Democrats and the Republicans, and at another level, Obama has driven a wedge between moderate Democrats and his radical leftwing liberal base. Now that's quite the feat to accomplish in less then 1 year in office. We see the result. We see how people feel at these town hall meetings. Those aren't all Republicans at those meetings, there are many, many Democrats there that disagree with Obama. Obama is splitting the country, not in two, but in multiple pieces.

Bill2008 (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:23 AM)

I think every American who is INSURED through their company should know EXACTLY how much their employers are doling out on behalf of their employees so they can *keep the* insurance that they LOVE so MUCH!

I worked for a company for 5 years and EVERY single year our health care plan was CHANGED! So regardless of whether or not I LOVED it… I had NO CHOICE than to re-up with some second rate higher deductible – higher co-pay – higher employee contribution - rip off artist aka insurer!

Not to mention when review time came around or should I say IF it came around… You were lucky to see a 2% increase.

Although my all time favorite was the year that they handed me the 2% salary increase (with a straight face no less) after my exemplary review and then informed me that my employee contribution towards my insurance was going up 14%! WTF!!!

Needless to say I left that company a couple of years ago!

My company today pays out over 200K per year to cover 15 young healthy employees. That’s approximately $13,333.00 per person.

I’m of the ‘old school’ train of thought and that is you offer some of the BEST insurance out there to retain the brightest talent in my industry. Now I may have to rethink that in the upcoming year.

I so far have been able to keep my employee’s contributions at the same level for the last 2 years. However, their deductible, co-pays & prescriptions have gone up! And without HCR there’s no doubt I’m looking at least another 10% increase next spring!

So the moral of this story is focused at all the mentally challenged MORON’s who keep parroting that I LOVE my INSURANCE and don’t want anything to change mantra!

You’ve all got some serious denial going on if you think for ONE minute that you’re immune from your company taking the cheaper way out and taking away or downgrading your current policy! Or maybe it’s that you’re content to accept a 2-3% salary increase if your lucky enough to get one!

Don’t believe me? Do some homework on your own and march your insurance happy asses on into the HR Dept. Ask them what the FULL amount of the premium is to cover either yourself or yourself & your family!

Then come back and EXPLAIN to us how you would EVER be able to afford your precious policy if you were on the ‘hook’ for the WHOLE thing!

GREAT job by Ed Schultz last night… he sure held Linda Douglas’s feet to the fire! I like Linda but she was unexpectedly unprepared last night! No one gets a free pass when it comes to something as important as HCR… especially these days…

Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:23 AM)

Interesting that Chuck Todd on the MJ show was critical yet again of the people attending these town hall meetings. Todd seems to stick his nose up in the air with respect to the people that are angry at these townhall meetings. Todd seems to think these people are not Real American and they misrepresent the overall views of the country. But then msnbc showed the poll numbers for Obama in general and health care in particular, and it appears America agrees with the people at these townhall meetings. So Todd, maybe it's time you got out of Washington and travel to Real America and see how Real Americans feel.

Real American (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:24 AM)

Dick Armey:
“In September or October there will be a hyped up outbreak of the swine flu which they’ll say is as bad as the bubonic plague to scare the bed-wetters to vote for healthcare reform, that is the only way they can push something on to the American people that the American people don’t want.”

Talk about a paranoid conspiracy theory. WOW !!
And to think he used to be a House Majority Leader.

Dennis, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:25 AM)

no joe, no bo, nj (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:26 AM)

Sooooooo, no GOP support for health care reform? None? Wonderful. I hope they enjoy their health care benefits that we pay for. And all the perks they get, for basically doing nothing. Dick Armey, your protestors only made things worse for the mission you set out on. You failed. Just as happened during the civil rights movement, the country was watching once again and didn’t like what they were seeing on tv.

From all the craziness that’s been going on, we have been fortunate enough to have on MSNBC tenacious tv hosts, journalists and guests such as Lawrence O’Donnell, whose appearances are always interesting, since he has been down this road before. Howard Dean –it’s hard to measure just how important his voice has been these past few weeks. Senator Sanders, same thing. I have seen other Senators, as well as politicians from the House who are determined to pass good legislation. Nancy Pelosi drew her line in the sand. The union drew their line in the sand. And there is a huge community out there of bloggers who will not rest, just as they did during the election, until reform is written into law.

But the one voice I haven’t heard lately is David Axelrod, who to me has always been the face of the Obama Administration. I hope I see him at some point soon. And I hope he looks straight into the camera and speaks directly to the GOP and tells them point blank, that the message they have been sending since the health care reform debate began is unwelcome. Lies and scaring senior citizens is about as low as it gets.

Basically I hope he tells them all to get lost. They’re all a bunch of nuts. And out and out liars.
_____
Nashville Fan: Great diary yesterday. Thank you.

Pat, Boston, MA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:29 AM)

I wonder what President Obama would say about this weird news item for the day.... tweeting your messages to God/the Western Wall, video report: http://www.governmentalityblog.com/my_weblog/2009/08/tweeting-god-in-israel.html

New York (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:29 AM)

Obama's numbers are essentially where they were last November when he drubbed McCain. What's the big deal?

http://www.political-buzz.com

Matt (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:29 AM)

First Read: The (relatively) good news for the Obama White House in the new NBC News poll is that the contours of the health-care debate haven’t really changed that much since those raucous congressional town-hall meetings began about two weeks ago. The bad news, however, is that the American public continues to have concerns about the president’s plans.

\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

Concern? You call that what you're seeing "concern"? That's not concern, that is outright revolt. Listen Obama, keep your grubby little cigarette stained fingers off our health care! We don't want socialists like you running one of the most important aspects of our lives. You say you can fix Medicare, get rid of the waste? Prove it!!! Fix Medicare, then come back and tell us all how wonderful you are and maybe we might listen to you. But do not touch our health care, our health care insurance, or anything else!!

Mob Member #354 (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:30 AM)

Feels like the table is set for a classic Obama Autumn comeback.

incognito (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:31 AM)

John F Kennedy used LBJ's Senatoral experience when working with Congress. Just wondering: What is Biden doing? I assumed that was one of the reasons Biden was picked, to help move through legislation.

Rampant Misinformation: Isn't it about time for all the news media to start working together to get accurate information out to the public. Just reporting that Fox is lying really isn't enough.

The road to health care will be the reconcilliation path. That in President Obama's only option.

Ron Indiana (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:31 AM)

A lot of reporters could learn a lot from Robert Novak. One of the last of the great shoe-leather reporters who took great pride in researching his columns to provide factual accounts to folks. I fear we've seen the last of reporters of his ilk--there aren't many today who offer more than reporting based on their own ideology vice facts.

Joanne, Destin FL (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:31 AM)

Barney Frank goes out again and makes another complete fool out of himself. You start to wonder about some of these congressmen that have been inside DC for decades, and you wonder if they've gone insane. Barney is proof positive that some have.

Move On Dot Barney (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:32 AM)

What this poll does is highlight how stupid huge numbers of americans are. The fact that 45% of people actually believe the death panel stuff is just mind boggling. Maybe we should be reforming the education system in this country instead....

Joe, Boston (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:33 AM)

Trust me, any one of you who is under the illusion that the heavily subsidized coverage you enjoy from your employer or the taxpayers is going to continue because you protected the status quo are nuts.

I'm an employer and trust me in 5 years most of us won't be able to afford the costs of covering employees and their families. My premiums have gone up 4, 7, 9, 3, 9 and 24 percent the past 6 years. The average cost to cover an employees family is 1200 per month which we currently split 70-30. Next year it will most certainly be 50-50 and the year after that we will probably have to drop the family subsidy too.

Congratulaitons to all of you goobers opposed to any reform. You won and most of you lost in the healthcare sweepstakes since I don't think most of you can afford your own healthcare and that makes you dependent on someone like me to subsidize you and I don't think that can continue.

Disgusted with Goobers (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:37 AM)

No matter what plan Obama picks, whether it be the one with the Public Option, or the one without, he won't get enough votes to pass his plan either way.

What a poor job Obama has done managing the process of health care reform. Obie has shown us that he is wet behind his (huge) ears and doesn't have any clue on how to manage the process of defining legislation and getting it passed into law. The Democrats gave him a gimme with the Stimulous bill (barely), but now when Obie has to work for something, he makes mistake, after mistake, after mistake.

I guess Community Organizer skills just don't transfer well to the Presidency.

James_TX (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:38 AM)

Sooooooo, no GOP support for health care reform? None? Wonderful. I hope they enjoy their health care benefits that we pay for. And all the perks they get, for basically doing nothing.
-----------------------------------------------------
You don't need GOP support. You can pass it without them. Why are they the target of your derision, Pat? Accept the fact that the Dems are screwing this up on their own. And your Senator is getting a lot of perks, including a healthy income, for doing essentially nothing for the past year and a half.

Elizabeth, Short Pump VA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:38 AM)

If there's good news and bad news is there ugly news? You betcha! Now we're finding out just how brainwashed the fools who watch fox and freaks are as we see that the vast majority of fox and freaks viewers believe the Great Right Lies about death panels, abortions, pulling the plug on grandma and medical care for illegal immigrants. We know where the looneytunes crowd gets their idiotic ideas, fox and freaks.

Oner thing the poll proves is that MSNBC viewers are far smarter than the ones who absorb the Great Right Lies of fox and freaks. One thing that's really funny is how CNN (fox lite) has really fallen on hard times as they are now behind MSNBC tv. No wonder their clueless Don Lemon has to resort to reading his clueless viewers twitter comments. One bad trend at MSNBC tv is that Carlos Watson is copying clueless Don Lemon and is reading viewer tweets too.

Preisdent Obama is wasting his day talking to faith leaders about health care reform. He needs to be talking to people who concentrate on facts not foolish faith, that's the purview of the evangelical christian lunatic fringe who are running amok at the rallies believing the Great Right Lies.

Pass Health Care Reform with the Public Option!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:38 AM)

Hello?!

You have the audacity to call the outing of a CIA agent "real reporting"? ... As if the fact that he asked someone in the administration a couple of questions and then gleefully reported the responses without regard for the consequences somehow displayed journalistic integrity or excuses an act of aiding and abetting treason?

There's a reason that Novak will be remembered for Valerie Plame and, despite how good he may have looked in a three-piece suit (a point on which reasonable minds could differ), remembering someone because they participated in an act of treason is NOT "too bad."

It's just right.

Or do you think we should remember Adolph Hitler because he looked good in his uniform and made a snappy salute?

Anna Molly (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:39 AM)

Had the W.H. used the Barney Frank method of Town Hall moderation, I think the misinformation and lies spread by haters would not have taken over the HCR message. Mr. Frank had facts to debunk the stupid stuff and he was not allowing them walk all over him and the job he was sent there to do. The Dems need to grow a backbone, and be tough but civil as Barney Frank did yesterday! Bravo to you, sir.

Another reason why the HCR message has become muddied is because you simply cannot change a person's mindset. In the area where I live, if people prefer to believe the President is a Muslim, he's not a legit citizen, and he's gonna pull the plug on grandma, then there is nothing anyone can do to change their minds. They prefer ignorance over fact and will defend their stance with their dying breath.

J. Ellis, Virginia (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:41 AM)

Let me summarize the Obama sales pitch on healthcare reform:

Eat all you want, and still lose weight!!!

no joe, no bo, nj

Obama makes used car salesmen look legit. Next Obie will be on late night tv taking over for Vince the Sham-Wow guy. Seeing Obama knows a lot about Shams, the transition for him shoud be seamless.

Billy M., FL (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:41 AM)

It is a damn shame people in this country are so easily fooled by the corporate trash, until people get off their ass and turn off Fox News then find out the truth about these issues we will never be able to fix anything.

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:43 AM)

FR: “…the president's last three town-hall meetings were about health INSURANCE reform…”

Nashville_fan (Sent Tuesday, August 18, 2009 10:36 AM): “If insurance companies are only raising their rates to cover the increasing cost submitted by doctors, how in the hell do the keep making record profits? All that extra money at the end of the quarter means that you are taking in ALOT MORE than you are spending out. In the middle of a recession Bill. When incomes are stagnant. Please conservatalk your way around that for me.”

=====

http://blog.taragana.com/n/aetna-says-2q-profit-drops-due-to-greater-commercial-expenses-and-cuts-full-year-forecast-122109/

I’d be happy to oblige, Nash. It’s actually pretty easy to ‘conservatalk’ on the point you raise because ‘record profits’ needs to be understood within proper context. For purposes of illustration, let’s look at the most recent earnings report for Aetna (see link above). Aetna reports some interesting facts: Projected 2009 revenues, $34.4B; Projected 2009 earnings, $1.3B; Total insured through the 2nd quarter, 19.1M

Revenues basically means income from insurance premiums. When you do some simple math, you can see that Aetna’s earnings (i.e. ‘profits’) as a percentage of revenues works out to 3.8%. That’s a very small number and is not indicative of exorbitant profits. But profits can grow even without being exorbitant. As the number of folks Aetna insures increases (either through natural population growth or through aggressive recruitment of new customers) the revenue stream from premiums will also increase and so will profits as a (small) percentage of that larger revenue stream. So while earnings numbers might represent ‘record profits’ it’s a record because the underlying insured base was expanding, not necessarily because the evil health insurance company was squeezing every last dime out of the consumer. In fact, Aetna reports that it’s insured base increased by 9% year over year, so that alone would be a source of increased profits. Except that in Aetna’s case their profits actually went down because of unexpectedly high payouts to health care providers, an issue I’ll address later.

Another point about profits. A number that gets bandied about these days is that spending on health care comprises about one-sixth of GDP in the US. In 2008, US GDP was about $14.3 trillion dollar. In 2009 GDP might be down a bit, for sake of argument let’s assume it’ll be somewhere between $13 - $14 trillion which would make health care spending come out to about $2.2 - $2.3 trillion. So it’s easy to see that Aetna’s $1.3B profit is literally a drop in the bucket compared with total health care spending. Even if you multiply Aetna’s profit by 30 or 40 or even 100 to account for profits of other large health insurers such as Wellpoint, Cigna, Humana, etc, their total profits are still tiny compared to total health care spending.

Now consider this. Assuming all $1.3B that Aetna expects to earn in 2009 profits is given back to the 19.1M folks they insure (i.e. Aetna became a ‘non-profit’ company), each policyholder would receive a check for about $68. Another way to say the same thing is, Aetna made a profit of about $68/yr on each of its 19.1M policyholders – hardly the stuff of consumer gouging. But there’s more. If Aetna only makes $68 in profit from each of its policyholders, then why do health insurance premiums increase so much each year? Because -- as I stated in my original post -- the health care costs that insurance companies like Aetna pay out to providers increases a lot each year, that’s why. For Aetna, these costs increased by $6.1B or 18% in their second quarter as compared to a year ago. Those are really big numbers.

Doing a little more math, you can calculate that if all these costs were passed on to policyholders in the form of increased premiums in 2010, each of the 19.1M insured would see a premium increase of $319/yr. Of course that’s just an average, some plans would increase more and some less. But the point is that each policyholder’s share of the increase in health care costs is on average almost 5 times their contribution to Aetna’s profits.

So despite what many people believe, when viewed in proper context it’s fairly easy to see that the attacks on the ‘record profits’ of health insurance companies don’t have a lot of substantive merit. But Obama reads the polls, and his recent shift in rhetoric from ‘health care reform’ to ‘health insurance reform’ is a cynical, calculated attempt to play upon the populist sentiments of folks like you who mistakenly believe these companies are making ungodly profits from the premiums they charge their policyholders. And that’s fairly typical of how your man operates.

Finally, the public option is not a silver bullet and does practically nothing to control the unsustainable rise in the costs of health care. When Aetna reports their payout to health care providers increased by 18% year over year, they are informing anyone who is paying attention that the underlying problem in the system is the providers who are billing the insurance companies, not the insurance companies themselves. And until doctors, hospitals, pharma, etc etc are seriously squeezed, health care costs will continue to rise at unsustainable rates whether there is a public option or not.

Bill, Fairfax, VA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:44 AM)

Ron Indiana: Keith Olbermann: Up: All you conservatives can stop reading now, but I like him. When he starts ranting, it’s time to fasten my seatbelt because it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next 12 minutes.

====================

Many people have better things to do then watch Olbermann, like clean their cats litter pan. And his ratings bear that out.

Jinx (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:44 AM)

Part of the problem of President Obama's sinking approval ratings is that he's losing approval from some of his base as he has forgotten who brought him to the dance. We've had to remind him that we're not happy being sold out at every opportunity to appease the party of sore losers. If he gets his act together on HCR with the public option and gets it passed his approval ratings will rise upwards again.

It's really a pity that the people with the most to gain from health care reform with the public option are the most silent on the issue. Where the heck are all those with no medical insurance or underinsured at at these rallies? They need to stop sitting on their hands and get active and vocal to make sure that the politicians hear their voices as well as those of the lunatic fringers who are being led like sheep by the astroturfing FreedomWorks and Americans for Prosperity organizations of corporate loving lobbyists.

Now that will be interesting as President Obama is a guest on Smerconishs's radio show. Michael Smerconish is the only sane republican radio host and he's the only one of them who is fair and balanced. I can hear the bodies of the repugnant ones falling over as they can't believe I said something nice about a republican.

President Obama Support Your Base of Supporters!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:45 AM)

Feels like the table is set for a classic Obama Autumn comeback.
incognito

Why? Is he trying to quit smoking again?

Marl Boro (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:47 AM)

Let me summarize the Obama sales pitch on healthcare reform:

Eat all you want, and still lose weight!!!

That's why people aren't buying into the plan. That's why he loses ground on it, month after month.

His 'revenue neutral' nonsense is seen to be just that; the backdoor rationing it will involve is easily recognized; and the fact that a presidential board of bureaucrats will determine what will be covered, and for whom, is seen to be exactly what it is-government takeover of the system.

It's over. Deal with it. no joe, no bo, nj (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:26 AM)
----------------------------------------------------

If people who had questions about reform read excerpts from the circulating bill, rather than chain misinformation emails...we wouldn't even be having this debate.

But nonetheless, people are too lazy to find out from the horses mouth.

Is the reform perfect? no, I actually think that they should just allow people to buy into medicare (notice I said medicare, not medicaid) rather than creating a new program...that way people aren't confused on how it works.

Also the latest figures is that it is not revenue neutral yet but 282 billion over 10 years...so 28 billion a year. I beleive we could find 28 billion a year in defense cuts to bogus programs/no bid contracts in a matter of hours.

And to those worried that they won't be able to see their doctor because of all the new patients...we're talking a 20% increase of people into the system. So if a doctor sees 10 people a day, now he sees 12.

Greg P. NW Indiana (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:47 AM)

Big surprise that the morons who are glued to the t.v are watching Fix News and believe all the lies. The same ones who could not name one branch of our government. They do know now the word Socialism but have really no clue what it really means only what those lunatic Beck and the braniac Palin who took 6 years and 5 different colleges to get a Journalism degree.

Juan,Ft Lauderdale,Fl (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:47 AM)

Buy on the rumor and sell on the news...

Flip for flop and tit for tat....Isn't so cool to speculate on what will happen next?...bullsh!t..

A tale of two opinions remove the pi and it all smells like bad breath...

Does anyone know what's in there? Really? Past,Present and Future?...TAXES!!!

BJ, CA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:47 AM)

Obama sure has been avoiding the subject of job creation. Aside from the 3 million he promised during his campaign, where are the 600,000 he promised for this summer? Summer's almost over....students heading back to school....more Obie broken promises....(sigh)

Willing to Work (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:49 AM)

Wow, the fair and balanced lies of FOX noise are being pointed out at last. It is pretty obvious that the propaganda wing of the right wing radical extremist Republicans, FOX has been caught with their poverbial pants down. Perhaps they need to do a little fact checking before they report the news or be seen for what they really are propaganda spreaders of lies.

eagle1776 (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:50 AM)

in an online post to someone who was concerned about health care reform going to pay for abortions, i posted the "get the facts" from whitehouse.gov/reality. the response from this person was, "i wouldn't believe anything from that website."

and so thus explains these polls. those listening to fox or limbaugh or those of their ilk, will not, do not want to, can not believe anything contrary to what they are being told. it's not just, "don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up;" it's "don't tell me your set of facts, i know the truth."

sbvpav, creswell, oregon (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:51 AM)

The poll confirmed what we all new - FOX viewers are generally uninformed, misinformed, and down right dumb!

pat huntington ny (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:52 AM)

Mob Member #354 (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:30 AM)

Your statements are dramatized hype! The President is trying to get something done because he realizes that the status quo on healthcare as we have it now is unsustainable. The health insurance companies and Big Pharma are eating us alive, enjoying record profits while the Average Jane and Joe are busting their humps every day meeting the ever increasing deductibles, and co-pays. In the meantime, the health care companies limit our care and coverage and outright deny it if we are too sick. Your outrage seems to be displaced--the President is not the problem, but the solution!

J. Ellis, Virginia (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:53 AM)

Eric, Salinas, Ca; If there's good news and bad news is there ugly news? You betcha! Now we're finding out just how brainwashed the fools who watch fox and freaks are as we see that the vast majority of fox and freaks viewers believe the Great Right Lies about death panels, abortions, pulling the plug on grandma and medical care for illegal immigrants. We know where the looneytunes crowd gets their idiotic ideas, fox and freaks.

Do you complain about the weather too Eric?

Liberals lead the way in Global Ignorance.

Gary, Iowa City, Iowa (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:54 AM)

Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:23 AM)

Could not agree with you more - ever one should know what health insurance costs. Another thing to consider many companies such as e.g. ALCOA, Inland Steel are what is called self-insured. For those who don't know self-insured means - the company will hire and insurance company to run the company's plan, but all payments come directly from the company to the health care provider. In other words these are direct hits to the company bottom line when health care is used.

OBwan, IN (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:54 AM)

“I'm here to fight for the country that we need to have,” said Republican Vicky Simms, of Knoxville, Md.

“We need to take socialism out of this country.” "Jerry Rosenwinkle, who’s not from Maryland -- he’s from Orlando, Fla. -- and works with LaRouche PAC, was handing out pamphlets that read, "Act Now To Stop Obama's Nazi Health Plan," featuring a black-and-white photo of Obama chatting with Hitler."

Domenico - Thank You So Much for relaying this republican woman's comments, as well as those of Jerry Rosenwinkle for you have finally provided me with my Eureka Moment on the perfect argument against the end socialism nonsense. The Best Article in First Read I ever read!

If scaring old folks is what it takes to win the health care reform debate then let's scare them but good. I say Yes let's do what the republicans want and end socialism now. Yes let's end Social Security and cut off grandpa's means of living. Yes let's end Medicare and Medicaid and pull the plug on grandma because she can't afford private insurance. Yes let's end Unemployment Insurance and tell the currently unemployed to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps. Yes let's end Food Stamps and tell the hungry that their hunger is positive motivation to get a job. Yes let's end all of the other socialist government programs that people rely upon and tell them tough luck.

Yes let's do what the republican Vicky Simms wants and end socialism now. Let's remind the people of the consequences and get them so scared of that and tell them that that's what the republicans want. Yes let's pull the plug on 74 year old Jerry Rosenwinkler's Medicare and Medicaid and see how long he lasts on private health care. Someone needs to lay that on that old fool and see how quick he wises up and supports Barack and socialism, carrying old Obama campaign posters and praising him.

We Democrats have to stop pussyfooting around and use the same kind of scare tactics upon the republicans that they are abusing on us now, we must fight fire with fire. Yeah let's turn their vaunted End Socialism Now argument against them by scaring people who rely on government largesse out of their wits that that's what the republicans want. That's a whole lot of people we can scare, many of them who are scared now about Obama. That's how we turn the tide!

Scare Tactics For Democrats!
In Domenico Montanaro I Trust!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:59 AM)

All the president really needs to do is to assure the American people that he will NOT sign any bill that covers illegal immigrants, abortions, or permits the government to prevent care for Grand-ma. The other specifics in the bill, ie, ending denial of claims, pre-existing conditions stopping people from getting insurance, and the high cost of supporting the industry, these are the things that matter. If the government can do the job better and cheaper than the insurance companies, then they should be doing the job. If they can't, then the insurance companies will continue to prosper. This is about quality of care as much as price. Let the insurance giants either compete, or fail.

Kay N, Cobleskill NY (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:00 AM)

All you're really saying about the poll numbers is that we still live in a world where lies have power. That it's true all across the media spectrum reflects mostly that the media treats liars like credible sources. Enough of the false equivalence that assumes that balance is halfway between lies and truth. Labeling lies as "spin" is just rationalization, untruth is untruth, plain and simple.

John B, Des Moines, IA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:00 AM)

I am still pretty confident HCR will get done in some form and that there will either be a public option or a decent co-op option.

But let's think negatively about it and say that the birthers/deathers/gun toters win and manage to stop HCR. What will undoubtedly happen is that in the next 5-10 years, the level of people covered by private insurance is going to continue to drop. The trend is clear that companies are eliminating health care insurance or passing on a bigger percentage of the cost. This will continue to have the same impact - less people covered by private insurance every year.

What this means is that the ranks of those that realize a change is needed will increase. And as more and more people lose their private insurance (which is proving to be a dismal failure given the insane rise in premiums, increase in deductibles and copays, and decreases in who can get a plan), a public option will gain steam. In fact, I would say that if we do nothing now, it is quite likely that in 10 years, we could be looking at a single payer system.

It is interesting to watch the debate. The more I read, the more I think that some type of systemic rationing is going to be necessary. Health care should be a right, not a privileged. Just as people have a right to be safe from crime, and just as people have a right to disaster relief, they should also have a right to decent medical care. The decision really comes down to this:

Do we continue our current system of unlimited unrestrained health care for the elite few or do we provide really good, but slightly more limited care to everyone? As more people become uninsured and go bankrupt, the balance will shift.

Finally, why do so many Americans believe the misinformation put out by the party of health care only for the elite? I think it can be summed up in three ways:

Party Loyalty - I don't care what the facts say. I want to believe what I want to believe so I'm going to disregard facts.
Laziness - I heard it was true and trying to look up whether or not it is true is just too much work.
Stupidity - I heard it, heard the counter argument, but can't comprehend how the counter argument could be true.

Chris - IL (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:00 AM)

BHO, needs to resign and go back to chicago and get his one and only job back as rabble rouser for the nuts of accorn the man is a empty empty suit , if his handlers don't have it written down on his teleprompter he is completely lost

hawk1 (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:02 AM)

*** What’s in it for me? In short, the president can't get across the "what's in it for us?"

In short, the president doesn't have a clue what he's doing. What is his plan? It changes every signal day. That's not a plan, those are trial balloons.

Johhny Redd (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:02 AM)

"Do you complain about the weather too Eric?
Liberals lead the way in Global Ignorance."
Gary, Iowa City, Iowa

Hey Gary - when it comes to Global Ignorance it's you and your fox and freaks watching fools who are the dumbest of the dumb. Oh and I don't complain about the weather since I live in the best place in the world for weather. While your brain is getting baked in the summer heat I'm nice and cool chilling in the fog and our high temps of 70 degrees. Do you actually have anything intelligent to say other than to inform me that your education topped out at the 3rd grade as your petty personal attack proves.

The Repugnant Ones are Globally Ignorant!

Eric, Salinas, CA (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:03 AM)

And to think that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid wanted to pass bills in each house of congress by August 1st. And what have we found out since then? We found out that average Americans will, unlike their congressmen, actually read the bills and have an open debate on the issues.

Imagine That! (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:04 AM)

We're givin you good health care, whether you like it or not. Now take two asprins and good back to bed.

Dr O. at your service (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:07 AM)

James_TX (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:38 AM)

Really? President Obama hasn't passed health care reform yet, so that proves he isn't capable of governing?

I guess it also proves Bill Clinton wasn't capable of governing. And Richard Nixon!

I'm just curious, but what is the excuse for every other President for the past 60 years? This has been talked about and tried since Harry Truman!

Chris - IL (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:08 AM)

Bill, Fairfax VA: thank you for the thoughtful, informative post. I reach out to you because I know from experience that Nashville will just change the subject; she does not care about facts, just DNC talking points.

Oh, and MSNBC-don't take the criticism of the Obama worshippers too hard, and you can disregard Pelosi's attacks, too. Ipsos McClatchy is releasing a poll this morning that supports the numbers from your poll last night.

People are rejecting Obama's healthcare takeover. They have rejected Cap and Trade. They despise the stimulous, and its empty promises.

And the independents have left the Democrats in droves.

We'll see the proof in the upcoming elections.

no joe, no bo, nj (Sent Wednesday, August 19, 2009 10:09 AM)

Next >>

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to the blog, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Message (please, no HTML tags. Web addresses will be hyperlinked):

Your name, city and state (John Doe, Seattle, Wash.):

Your e-mail address (jdoe@msnbc.com):

Your website (it's okay if you don't have one):

Remember me? (We'll keep it private) Remember me?

TRACKBACKS

Trackbacks are links to weblogs that reference this post. Like comments, trackbacks do not appear until approved by us. The trackback URL for this post is: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/trackback.aspx?PostID=2036015