October 2009 - Posts
From NBC's Chuck Todd Watertown Daily Times , the Republican nominee in the New York 23rd Congressional special election, Dede Scozzafava, announced this morning she's suspending her campaign. Her exit leaves Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, who had garnered plenty of national GOP support, as the favorite to win what was a hotly-contested 3-way race. Republicans had feared that Hoffman and Scozzafava would split the Republican vote in this somewhat competitive district and hand the seat to Democrat Bill Owens. Former Republican Congressman John McHugh resigned his seat earlier this year after he was named by Pres. Obama to be the Secretary of the Army.
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Scozzafava was under relentless attack from some members of her own party, including former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin .
Democrats haven't held this seat since the 19th century but Obama did carry the 23rd District during the 2008 campaign. Local GOP leaders had named the more moderate Scozzafava the nominee over Hoffman as the makeup of the district led plenty of GOP strategists to believe they needed a moderate to carry the district. Hoffman decided to run as a Conservative Party candidate, something allowed in New York State, and national groups, like Club for Growth, weighed in big time.
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From NBC's Chuck Todd
So House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn's office passes along this numerical breakdown:
-- It has been 80 days from when the House bill was first introduced. The public has been able to view the bill and extensive information about it online the entire time.
-- It has been 126 days since the House discussion draft was first made available online.
-- There have been 100 hearings on health reform in the past two years, including 8 since the discussion draft was released.
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From NBC's Chuck Todd and Jim Miklaszewski Pres. Obama met today with the Joint Chiefs of Staff for just the second time since taking office. The president grilled the commanders on strategy and troop requests for Afghanistan during the nearly three hour meeting, but no final decision were made, according to both senior White House and Pentagon officials
In fact, the president has asked the Joint Chiefs to come back to the White House possibly as early as next week to present him with more options. The president is not happy with the choices that he has in front of him, which include Gen. Stanley McCrystal's request for approximately 40,000 more troops. So in the last few weeks, the White House asked the Pentagon to draw up more plans and when ready have the Joint Chiefs present the options formally to the president at the next meeting.
While nothing has been ruled out, the fact the president is asking for more options than what was already on the table, including the 40,000 troop request, is a strong sign that whatever number the president approves, it will likely be less than than 40,000 number. In fact, sources tell NBC News that at least one commander in the meeting today told the president there was a concern that the military was a bit stretched, something that may have had a big impact on the Commander in Chief.
As for timing, it's ALSO looking less likely the president will make a decision (let alone ANNOUNCE a decision) before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 11, a self-imposed soft deadline the White House had hoped to meet.
THE WEEK AHEAD: If it's Tuesday... We preview Election Day in NJ, VA and NY-23. What does it all mean? ... Plus, a special uninvited guest.
From NBC's Pete Williams Obama administration calls the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) discriminatory, the Justice Department nonetheless is defending the law in a court filing today in Massachusetts.
The state has challenged the law, which denies federal marriage benefits to same-sex couples who are nonetheless legally married under state law. Massachusetts officials say the federal law requires them to disregard legally valid marriages in carrying out federal Medicaid and Veterans' benefits programs. Such a requirement, they say, violates state sovereignty and is unconstitutional.
"This administration does not support DOMA as a matter of policy, believes that it is discriminatory, and supports its repeal," the Justice Department says in today's filing.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Quinnipiac poll and check out the fav/unfav number from August to now.
August is a good data point to look at because it's when Republican Chris Christie held consistent leads in the polls, anywhere from 5 to 10 points or more. Jon Corzine has, including a job approval rating still mired in the 30s, his fav/unfav numbers have actually gotten BETTER. In August, he was 37%/54%; now, he stands at 41%/52%.Chris Daggett is the only one with a net-positive rating, but still many have not heard of him -- or haven't heard enough. He was just a 4%/3% in August, a clear sign of a lack of Name ID. Less than a week before the election, he's 21%/16% with 61 saying they haven't heard enough. That shows better Name ID, but not likely enough for most in the state to be able to find him on the ballot among nine other independent candidates.
From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview with ABC , Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) -- who campaigned for John McCain in last year's presidential election, and has threatened to help filibuster the health care legislation in the Senate if it contains a public option -- now says he'll campaign for some Republican candidates in the 2010 midterms.
"I probably will support some Republican candidates for Congress or Senate in the election in 2010. I'm going to call them as I see them," Lieberman said.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro President Obama 's approval rating in Ohio now stands at 52%, which mirrors his national approval rating, according to the University of Cincinnati's Ohio poll . (The last two NBC/WSJ polls had the president's approval at 51%.) His rating in Ohio is a drop from April, the last time it was measured by this pollster. Then, it stood at 63%.
His numbers on the economy are now upside down. Only 45% approve of his handling of the economy, while 53% disapprove.
He gets slightly better ratings on foreign policy. Now, 50% approve of his handling of foreign policy, while 40% disapprove; 51% approve of his handling of Iraq, 40% disapprove; even less approve of his handling of Afghanistan -- 47%, 42% disapprove. That is a major shift from April when 69% approved of his handling of Afghanistan and just 23% disapproved. But the issue was not as much in focus then, has since become political and the casualties have worsened.
And this piece of the analysis isn't promising for Obama: "Democrats continue to stand solidly behind President Obama, while Republicans are solidly against. Independents are now more likely to give the president negative, as opposed to positive, ratings."
Also, Gov. Ted Strickland (D), up for re-election next year, and locked in a tight race with John Kasich (R), is now at less than 50% for the first time in the poll. Just 48% now approve of his job, while 37% disapprove. And it's worse on his handling of the economy, which is also for the first time a net-negative -- 41%/49%.
The one glimmer of hope for Democrats is that if the economy gets better, that portends well, and more Ohioans than in previous polls are optimistic (33%) that it will get better. But a majority (54%) are still pessimistic that it will get worse.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Kelly Paice *** A good week for health care? Was this a good week or a bad week for health care? This might be the most fascinating Rorschach test in Washington today. If you listen to many Democrats involved deep in the process, they sound like Kevin Bacon in "Animal House": "Remain calm! All is well!" And they very well could be right. After all, there was real progress in that both the House and Senate have merged bills, which are potentially days away from making it on the floor -- something that's never happened before on health care. That's the good news for the Democrats and the White House. The bad news? It seems all the progress that was made in winning over Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe and in lining up the moderate/conservative Dem senators has been lost. Both the House and Senate bills seem to push things toward the left of the party, suddenly putting focus (and nervousness) on those moderates. They are the ones, remember, on the 2010 election frontlines.
*** Fighting the good fight: Then again, perhaps both Senate Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi are doing what they have to do -- fight the good fight for the base and push as hard as they can until they are forced to compromise. (That’s what you’re supposed to do when negotiating, right?) Bottom line: Last week, there was little doubt health care was going to get done. At the end of this week, that’s probably still true. BUT it certainly seems like the process, for Democrats, is going to politically painful for quite some time. Of course, as we’ve said before, the sausage-making process always was going to painful -- and ugly.
*** Another Afghanistan meeting: The big news today is President Obama’s closed-door meeting on Afghanistan with his national security team and Joint Chiefs of Staff at 1:30 pm ET. Today’s meeting has the feel of a strategy implementation meeting -- more so than simply strategic review. Clearly, the president's review is winding down; this week has been FILLED with trial balloons leaked to the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the AP about various scenarios, all of which end up with the president OK-ing more troops. The question is how many…
*** Quite the work ethic in the House! A leaked summary of ethics inquiries in the House confirms the suspicion that many in this town already have: The Democrats have a growing ethics problem, and it took them just three years back in power to do that. Interestingly, if you dig deep into the Washington Post story, you'll see this ethics issue really is about one subcommittee and seems to have one person at the center of it all -- John Murtha. Couple him with the ethics cloud hovering over Ways and Means Chair Charlie Rangel and you've got yourself a ready-made issue for NEW, non-Washington Republican candidates to run on. (Should we expect Hoffman in NY-23 to turn a quickie ad over the weekend?) Don't forget the ethics clouds of '91-94 (Post office and bank) helped derail the Democrats as did the ethics clouds of '04-‘06 for the Republicans. And what really hurt both parties in power at the time was the slowness with which the leadership handled the problems. How will this Democratic leadership team handle this? Rangel and Murtha, in particular, have lots of "old bull" friends in the House. At one point does the White House and Mr. ("Change the ways of Washington") Obama say, “Enough is enough.” He's totally steered clear of this mess for some time and passed it off as House business. But if it's creating a cloud over Washington, then doesn’t he have to step in?
*** The fight over the stimulus continues: Later today, the Obama administration says it will post data showing the stimulus has created or saved some 650,000 jobs. And because this data reflects only half of the stimulus spent through Sept. 30 -- money for education, construction and roads, but not money for tax cuts or Pell grants -- administration officials say these numbers “confirm government and private forecaster’s estimates that overall Recovery Act spending has created and saved at least 1 million jobs.” More: “Analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates the Recovery Act contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter.” However, House Minority Leader John Boehner counters with this statement: “The trillion-dollar ‘stimulus’ isn’t working, and no amount of phony statistics can change that... While Washington keeps spending and piling more debt on the backs of our children and grandchildren, out-of-work families keep asking, ‘where are the jobs?’” By the way, the fact the administration is trying to SELL two sets of numbers (650,000 vs. 1 million) is leading to confusion already, and only underscores the P.R. problem the administration has in selling the stimulus; it's been a problem from the get-go.
*** Hillary’s tough talk: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave Pakistan a dose of some tough medicine, charging it’s hard to believe that no one in Pakistan's government knows where al Qaeda is -- and couldn't get them if they wanted to. She also leveled that al Qaeda has had a safe haven in Pakistan for seven years, and that there needs to be more of a two-way street between the countries. In an interview with Mitchell that aired on TODAY this morning, Clinton justified her tough talk, saying it was all part of her game plan. “I would not be representing my country if I were not to be as forthcoming with them as they have been with me,” the secretary said. This isn't the first time Clinton has delivered a blunt message while traveling overseas. Interestingly, Clinton now heads to the Middle East, a region that could certainly use some tough talk. Be sure to catch more of Andrea’s interview with Clinton on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” beginning at 1:00 pm ET.
*** Cook’s warning about Tuesday: In his latest column in National Journal , political analyst Charlie Cook warns not to read too much into the handful of contests on Tuesday. “Whatever the outcome of this year’s New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races, the results will depend on conflicting factors that are unlikely to be replicated in many contests next year,” he writes. “Beware, then, of drawing sweeping conclusions.” He also applies that advice to the fascinating NY-23 special congressional election. “Losing the seat would be a bit painful for the GOP but would not signal much about the party’s 2010 prospects elsewhere. After all, how many states have a viable Conservative Party and how many times next year will the GOP nominate someone as liberal as Scozzafava?”
*** Looking ahead to next year: Meanwhile, the person at Charlie’s “Cook Political Report” who analyzes the House races, David Wasserman, argues that -- one year out -- Republicans are poised to pick up House seats in 2010, but maybe not enough to take back the chamber. “House Democrats face real dangers, foremost a less favorable midterm electorate… But Democrats have a financial advantage, and in the era of endless robo-polling, they will also have plenty of opportunity to diagnose and treat their problems. More than turnout needs to change for the GOP to make larger gains. Republicans need to change more minds and Democrats need to make serious mistakes, like failing to focus enough on jobs throughout 2010, to put the current House majority at risk. At the current rate, it's most plausible Democrats will lose between 15 and 25 seats next year.” And 15-25 is close the average loss for a president’s first midterm election.
*** The 2009 mayoral races: In addition to next week’s NJ and VA contests, there also will be several mayoral races in at least 15 major cities across the country. The marquee ones are in New York and Boston. In New York, after billionaire Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I/R) convinced legislators to change the city's term-limits law to allow for a third term, his re-election became inevitable. Even with polls showing him leading Democrat Bill Thompson by double digits, Bloomberg has spent an extraordinary $85 million of his own money on the race -- and he's expected to eventually spend between $110 million and $140 million. (He even aired a negative attack ad against Thompson this week!?!?!) In Boston, Mayor Thomas M. Menino (D), the city’s longest-serving mayor (of 16 years), is running for a fifth term against City Councilor Michael Flaherty (D). Menino is favored, but don't miss the nasty feud between Boston firefighters and the mayor. Elsewhere, there are notable competitive races in Seattle (where the incumbent mayor lost in the primary), Charlotte (where that city's 14-year mayor is stepping down), and Houston (which the New York Times profiles today).
*** Other 2009 odds and ends: A new Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind poll has Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R) deadlocked -- with Corzine at 44%, Christie at 43%, and Daggett at 6%... And in NY-23, GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava won the endorsement of the district's main newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times . The paper writes that Scozzafava is "best equipped" for the job, while Conservative Party challenger Doug Hoffman's "ideological stands could harm the district" and "the Democratic candidate [Bill Owens] has too much to learn about district issues and the job of governing." This endorsement comes a day after the Syracuse Post-Standard announced its backing of Owens because "he offers a clear and welcome contrast to both Scozzafava and Hoffman on major issues."
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 4 days
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"The House Democrats' health care plan would cover 36 million more Americans at a cost of $1.055 trillion over the next decade, while slashing the federal deficit overall by $104 billion, according to a preliminary Congressional Budget Office score released late Thursday."
The New York Times : “Even so, the budget office said that the costs would be fully offset by cuts in the growth of Medicare and by new fees and taxes on individuals, families and businesses. Thus, it said, the bill would reduce projected federal budget deficits by $104 billion over 10 years.”
The GOP spin machine seems to be back up and running after a hiatus. "House Republican leaders want their members to call the 1,990-page Democratic health measure 'the Pelosi healthcare bill.'" And why not? Pelosi is an unpopular figure nationwide, as the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that just 26% of the country views her favorably, compared with 42% who don't. (There is some disagreement, however, among GOPers. Joe "You Lie" Wilson is opting for the "Pelosi takeover.")
Rut-roh. The Washington Post reports, “House ethics investigators have been scrutinizing the activities of more than 30 lawmakers and several aides in inquiries about issues including defense lobbying and corporate influence peddling, according to a confidential House ethics committee report prepared in July. The report appears to have been inadvertently placed on a publicly accessible computer network, and it was provided to The Washington Post by a source not connected to the congressional investigations. The committee said Thursday night that the document was released by a low-level staffer.”
The New York Times’ Leibovich profiles Dr. No, Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn (R).
After Alan "Die Quickly" Grayson cried on the House floor over the uninsured, a Web site has popped up called MyCongressmanIsNuts.com .
David Brooks does a spinal tap of sorts on whether the president has the determination to see the war through.
Obama's pick for Surgeon General, Regina Benjamin, was FINALLY confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Roll Call : "Republicans, saying they want time to debate, have opposed moving ahead on Health and Human Services nominees over a 'gag order' on insurance companies critical of Democratic-led health care reform legislation."
NEW JERSEY: A Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind poll shows the governor's race is deadlocked -- with Jon Corzine holding a 44%-43% edge over Chris Christie.
The Star-Ledger : "Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's campaign yesterday promoted President Obama's Sunday visit to New Jersey, independent Chris Daggett accused Republicans of trying to push him from the race and Republican Chris Christie challenged Corzine to 'man up and say I'm fat' on a national broadcast." Skinny in New Jersey : In addition to saying that Corzine needs to "man up and call me fat," Christie also said on the Don Imus show, "I am setting an example, Don. We have to spur our economy. Dunkin' Donuts, International House of Pancakes, those people need to work, too." Christie also predicted that he'll be "a big fat winner" on Election Day. Meanwhile, Corzine is attacking Christie for likening early childhood education to government babysitting.
NEW YORK: The recent rash of endorsements in New York’s special congressional election is putting Republican members of Congress in a tough spot between their conservative base and their party… [F]or most, it’s a situation they’d rather avoid." And... "Playing off those announcements, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) on Wednesday began trying to put Republican Senate candidates on the spot in the special election, asking whom they would support."
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FLORIDA: The Hill : "Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s Senate campaign is accused of breaking campaign finance law by ghost-writing a negative website about his opponent in the Republican primary race. At issue is the new site, TruthAboutRubio.com, which launched this week and features hits on Crist primary opponent Marco Rubio, including suggesting Rubio's campaign was behind a video comparing Crist to Adolf Hitler." MASSACHUSETTS: How bad are the state's budget problems? Deval Patrick announced he's slashing 1,000 jobs .
NEW YORK: "Attorney General Andrew Cuomo campaigned for Controller William Thompson in the Bronx on Thursday - or was it the other way around?" The New York Daily News posits. "Thompson needs all the support he can get from white ethnic Democrats to win his uphill battle against Mayor Bloomberg next week, while Cuomo will need African-American backers like Thompson in his rumored run for governor next year."
From NBC's Mike Viqueira The House ethics committee has just announced that it is going forward with investigations of allegations surrounding Reps. Maxine Waters and Laura Richardson .
The committee is also announcing its finding that Rep. Sam Graves has not violated any rules and the committee is closing its investigation.
The committee statement, in part, regarding Waters:
"...the Committee has unanimously voted to establish an investigative subcommittee to conduct an inquiry...
"...with respect to Representative Waters' alleged communications and activities with, or on behalf of, the National Bankers Association or OneUnited Bank, a bank in which Representative Waters' husband owned stock and previously served on the board of directors..."
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From NBC's Pete Williams President Obama today gives the federal government new authority to withhold photos of detainees who may have been subjected to abuse by their U.S. captors.
After first agreeing to release them, Obama reversed himself earlier this year and directed the Justice Department to seek court rulings that would allow the government to withhold them. They were sought in a lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union. The pictures, several dozen, were taken during investigations into prisoner abuse in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Obama said releasing the pictures would "further inflame anti-American opinion" and would "put our troops in greater danger."
A Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill, signed today, gives the Defense Department new grounds to exempt them from release under the Freedom of Information Act.
The Justice Department has been urging the Supreme Court to wait until Congress finished acting on the issue before deciding whether to take up the case. It now seems likely that today's action will put an end to the issue, making it unnecessary for the court to hear the case.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Secretary Clinton is leaving Islamabad tomorrow evening for Abu Dhabi, where she will hold talks Saturday with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas .
The rest of her schedule is unclear, but she is expected in Jerusalem Saturday night for meetings Sunday with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu , according to Israeli officials.
She then heads to Morocco for meetings Monday and Tuesday.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Chris Christie , appearing on Don Imus' show today weighed in on the flap over opponent Jon Corzine 's campaign using what some see as a gratuitous attack on Christie's wasteline.
"Afterwards, he wusses out and says, 'Oh no, no, I didn't mean that, I don't know what you're talking about,'" Christie said of Corzine. "Man up -- if you say I'm fat let's go, let's talk about it."
Here are a couple of the ads in which Christie's campaign cuts through the fat and says the Corzine camp is raising the specter of the Republican's weight:
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Franklin and Marshall poll out today on the Pennsylvania Senate race that Arlen Specter 's approval rating is just 23%.
It was just six months ago that Specter jumped ship and joined the Democrats because he saw the writing on the primary wall. It made him the automatic statewide favorite.
Specter still leads former admiral and congressman Joe Sestak in a Democratic primary, 30%-18% (with more than 47% undecided). But that's closer than in August when Specter led Sestak, 37%-11%.
Specter beats Toomey in a general election matchup, but by just two points, 33%-31%. Toomey leads Sestak 28%-20%, but with so few committed in that hypothetical matchup, that is likely a product of Sestak's lack of name ID.
Specter didn't receive rave reviews for his handling of a healthcare town hall that made its way around the cable channels, and Sestak has half a year to improve on getting better known, which gives Sestak a forseeable avenue to actually win.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira George Miller , chairman of the education and labor committee and close confidant of Speaker Nancy Pelosi .
Meanwhile, House progressives head to the White House this afternoon for a meeting, where they plan to tell President Obama that they have real problems with the concept of the "opt out" public option -- to say nothing of the "trigger," according to Raul Grijalva , co-chair of the Progressive Caucus.
Still, Democratic leaders are confident today that they will have the votes to pass the bill outlined at the west front event this morning, notwithstanding the misgivings of progressives, who are largely expected to fall in line next week.
But Grijalva suspects that, ultimately, the public option will be watered down in a conference with the Senate, and thinks that the most likely outcome is a trigger. That is something that he says he and other liberals cannot accept.
Others are drawing a harder line. Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich took to the floor today and asked, "Is this the best we can do?" He wants the "robust" public option and thinks this version falls short.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama administration, via a statement from the Treasury Department, is officially asking Congress to extend the tax credit for first-time homebuyers.
From the release:
Tim Geithner and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan called on Congress to approve three important measures to improve housing and the housing market for Americans: extension of the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit for a limited period, extension of higher loan limits for home mortgages, and secure funding for the Housing Trust Fund. "We welcome efforts taken by Congress to extend the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit for a limited period. This credit has brought new families into the housing market and contributed to three consecutive months of rising home prices nationwide," said Secretaries Geithner and Donovan.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira, Luke Russert and Tony Capra House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the outline of the House healthcare bill this morning on the West Front steps of the Capitol.
The bill is available on the House Rules Committee Website .
The Speaker's office says it would cost $894 Billion over 10 years and be fully paid for.
The Congressional Budget Office will release a "score" for the bill later today.
*** UPDATE ***
"Dems are blocking access to their press conference," wrote Brad Dayspring, an aide to Cantor. "Apparently there is a list, and if you're not on it, you can't get through. This is a public space on the steps of the Capitol and the Mall."
NBC's Mike Viqueira, who was there, confirms that a Cantor staffer was barred from attending by a Capitol policeman, who said he was told by the Speaker's office that it was invited guests only.
When asked about it, security officials and the Speaker's staff said that didn't seem right to them and that they knew nothing about it.
As an aside, there was one protestor with a bullhorn who was shut down. In that area, apparently no amplified sound is allowed.
*** UPDATE 2 *** offers up this video of a barricade to the event, an RSVP list and a staffer saying they can watch it on C-SPAN.
Asked how much consideration, if any, there is for the security of the person who's second in line to the president of the United States, Dayspring responded, "You’d have to ask them whether security is the reason that the Speaker’s staff banned the public from attending – I don’t have those answers."
From NBC's Mark Murray we noted that the Iowa Family Policy Center has invited Sarah Palin to address the group on Nov. 21, which just happens to be the same day when Vice President Biden attends the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in the Hawkeye State.
Palin has yet to decide whether she'll attend the event in Iowa, but this story might complicate things a bit: Politico's Martin writes that the Iowa Family Policy Center is raising $100,000 to pay for Palin's speaking fee -- which has raised eyebrows from other Iowa groups.
"[R]epresentatives from other Iowa-based political advocacy groups said they would never consider shelling out money for what many politicians see as a privilege: the opportunity to speak to a room full of sure-fire caucus-goers who often serve as precinct captains and can be instrumental to a presidential candidate’s success. 'If somebody tells me they want me to pay an appearance fee, it tells me they’re not very serious about running for president,' said Ed Failor, Jr., president of Iowans for Tax Relief and an influential GOP insider."
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Hillary Clinton , buffeted by tough questions for two days about the U.S. influence on Pakistan's military, said today she finds it hard to believe that no one in Pakistan's government knows where al Qaeda is -- and couldn't get them if they wanted to. She added that al Qaeda has had a safe haven in Pakistan for seven years.
The Secretary of State's very undiplomatic response came in a meeting with newspaper editors.
This exchange is not on camera:
Asked why other countries can't be involved in fighting terrorism -- not just Pakistan -- Clinton said: "Al-Qaeda has had safe haven in Pakistan since 2002. I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where they are and couldn't get them if they really wanted to. Maybe that's the case; maybe they're not gettable. I don't know.''
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Obama visits Dover : Before he makes his decision whether or not to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, President Obama traveled to Dover Air Force Base late last night to witness the transfer of 18 U.S. personnel who were killed in that country. “Wearing a suit and a topcoat, Obama was greeted by the airlift wing commander before getting into car for the short drive to a base chapel, where he met with family members of the deceased,” the Washington Post reports. “Afterward, the president took part in the military's precise, solemn transfer of the cases holding the bodies of the fallen from the plane to the vehicles that would transport them to a base mortuary. Four times, Obama marched up the ramp of the transport plane and bore witness as Maj. Richard S. Bach, an Air Force chaplain, offered a prayer over the remains. Afterward, he joined other officials, including Attorney General Eric C. Holder, standing at attention and saluting.” (The video footage of the Dover event, by the way, is for just one soldier, as the family of Sgt. Dale Griffin gave permission for media coverage.) The president returned to the White House a little before 5:00 am ET. Perhaps more than anything else, last night’s visit signals that whatever troop decision Obama makes, it should keep the left from being overly critical as he's absorbed the cost of his decision from every angle -- including this one.
*** The recession is over : That is the message from the latest GDP numbers. Per the AP, “The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. It was the strongest signal yet the economy entered a new phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.” That’s news the Obama White House will definitely tout today. But here’s the news that the GOP will tout, courtesy again of the AP : “An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.” The White House late last night fired off an aggressive response to the article: “This story draws misleading conclusions from a handful of examples. It looks at only a small portion of the data -- an initial upload of data representing just two percent of Recovery Act spending – that was made publicly available before a full review of its accuracy could be done.” Pelosi’s health bill : At 10:30 am ET, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats will outline the health-care legislation they plan to bring to the House floor. As NBC’s Mike Viqueira reported yesterday, the measure is not expected to include the "robust" public option, or the reimbursement rate to medical professions based on Medicare plus 5%. Instead, it will include a public option based on rates negotiated region by region -- which Harry Reid’s Senate bill also includes.
*** The great American health-care fight : There are many other moving parts today in the health-care debate. The Democratic National Committee goes after Sarah Palin in its latest “Call’em out” campaign to debunk what it says are the mistruths she has spread on health-care reform… With Sen. Evan Bayh (D) apparently undecided whether he’d join a GOP filibuster, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America are releasing new polling data (courtesy of Research 2000) showing that Indiana voters support a public option by a 52%-42% margin… The Dem-leaning Americans United for Change has a Web video blasting health insurers and their anti-trust protection… And the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a Halloween-themed Web video whacking Obama and the Democrats on health-care and a host of other things.
*** Plouffe on Hillary, Palin : This Sunday on “Meet the Press,” David Gregory will interview Obama campaign David Plouffe regarding his new book, “The Audacity to Win: The Inside Story and Lessons of Barack Obama’s Historic Victory.” Time magazine has some excerpts from Plouffe’s book. On weighing Hillary as Obama’s VP: “Barack continued to be intrigued by Hillary. ‘I still think Hillary has a lot of what I am looking for in a VP,’ he said to us ‘... I think Bill may be too big a complication. If I picked her, my concern is that there would be more than two of us in the relationship.’ Neither Ax nor I were fans of the Hillary option.” And on Palin: “I also thought it was a downright bizarre, ill-considered and deeply puzzling choice ... [Obama] said, “... when voters step back and analyze how he made this decision, I think he’s going to be in big trouble. You just can’t wing something like this — it’s too important.”
*** A ceasefire in the Chamber-White House war? In the past few days, the Obama White House and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have engaged in a spirited -- and public -- battle over health care and climate change. But today, at least, the sides appear to be calling a truce. At 11:50 am ET, Obama will deliver remarks at the White House to members of the Chamber, the normally Republican-leaning National Federation of Independent Business, and other small business owners. Per the White House, the speech is a follow up “to the small business announcement last week that would increase the caps for existing SBA loans and give smaller banks better access to TARP funding to encourage more lending.” Later in the day, Obama meets with Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.
*** Swine flu, WH perks : Two other stories, via the New York Times, deserve attention today. The first is about the shortage of the swine flu vaccine. “The shortage, caused by delays in the vaccine manufacturing process, has put the president in exactly the situation he sought to avoid — one in which questions are being raised about the government’s response.” Yesterday, we saw the first Republican lawmaker (Missouri Rep./Senate candidate Roy Blunt) hit the administration on this issue. The other story worth keeping an eye on is the follow-up to that Washington Times story from yesterday, which alleged that big contributors were receiving special perks. “Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, spent part of his briefing on Wednesday trying to dismiss the suggestion that people who gave money to President Obama were given special access to the executive mansion. The questions arose after The Washington Times reported that Mr. Obama has continued the longtime practice of rewarding donors with perks, including use of the bowling alley. ‘Contributing doesn’t guarantee a visit to the White House,’ Mr. Gibbs said, ‘nor does it preclude it.’” The question the White House seems to be having the TOUGHEST time answering is not granting donors access to the White House -- but why high level officials, like Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina, are participating in donor briefings at DNC events?
*** Rove’s 2009 spin : In his weekly Wall Street Journal column , Karl Rove writes how the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests could be harbingers for the 2010 midterms. “Tuesday's election will provide the most tangible evidence so far of how strong a backlash is building—and just how frightened centrist Democrats should be of 2010. For Republicans, it looks as if hope and change are on the way.” But as George W. Bush’s chief political adviser, Rove should also know that the VA and NJ races don’t always predict what’s going to happen in the midterms. In 2005 -- right after Hurricane Katrina -- Democrats won both contests, an early sign of their success in 2006 (when they back control of Congress) and in 2008 (when they won the White House). Yet in 2001 -- right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- Democrats also won both races. But the next year, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and Bush won re-election in 2004. Rove does offer some interesting advice to Republicans in that NY-23 civil war: Tell third-party conservative Doug Hoffman he is welcome to caucus with the GOP if he wins the election.
*** 2009 ballot watch : The gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the special congressional election in NY-23, are certainly the marquee races on Tuesday. But there are also several ballot initiatives to watch, particularly one on same-sex marriage in Maine. In May, Maine became the sixth state to pass a law allowing same-sex marriage, but voters on Tuesday will consider whether they want to repeal that law. Also in Maine, voters take up whether to change its medical marijuana law. Additionally, Maine and Washington consider a Taxpayer Bills of Right (TABOR), which would limit states and localities on taxing and spending. (In 1992, voters in Colorado approved the first TABOR.) Finally, as cities and states across the country struggle with trying to balance budgets, voters in Ohio will weigh whether to add casinos in four cities. It has become a major issue in those four cities’ mayoral elections.
*** More 2009 : RNC Chair Michael Steele campaigns today and tomorrow with the top of the GOP ticket in Virginia; Steele stumped in New Jersey last week… PolitickerNJ reports that Jon Corzine (D) is outspending Chris Christie (R) by almost a 3-1 clip… And a new Virginia Commonwealth University poll has Bob McDonnell (R) up by 18 points (!!!).
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 5 days
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"President Barack Obama is considering a scaled-down version of the war plan advanced by his top Afghanistan commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, U.S. officials say," the AP says. "Such a narrowed military mission would increase American forces to accomplish the commander's broadest goals of protecting Afghan cities and key infrastructure. But with fewer troops, the strategy likely would cut back on McChrystal's ambitious objectives, amounting to what one official described as 'McChrystal Light.' ... A stripped-down approach would signal caution in widening a war that is going worse this year than last despite intense U.S. attention and an additional 21,000 U.S. forces sent there on Obama's watch." Washington Post , “President Obama has asked senior officials for a province-by-province analysis of Afghanistan to determine which regions are being managed effectively by local leaders and which require international help, information that his advisers say will guide his decision on how many additional U.S. troops to send to the battle.”
More: “Obama made the request in a meeting Monday with Vice President Biden and a small group of senior advisers helping him decide whether to expand the war. The detail he is now seeking also reflects the administration's turn toward Afghanistan's provincial governors, tribal leaders and local militias as potentially more effective partners in the effort than a historically weak central government that is confronting questions of legitimacy after the flawed Aug. 20 presidential election.”
The New York Times looks at the challenge the shortage of the swine flu vaccine presents for the Obama White House. “The shortage, caused by delays in the vaccine manufacturing process, has put the president in exactly the situation he sought to avoid — one in which questions are being raised about the government’s response.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post previews the House health-care bill that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will outline this morning. “The House legislation aims to provide health insurance of one form or another to almost all Americans at an expected cost just below $900 billion over 10 years, without increasing the federal budget deficit for at least 20 years, House Democrats said. Pelosi (D-Calif.) was awaiting official data Wednesday night from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.”
The New York Times adds, “The cost would be offset by new taxes and by cutbacks in Medicare, so the bill would not increase the federal budget deficit in the next 10 years or in the decade after that. The new bill, like an earlier version, retains a surtax on high-income people, but increases the thresholds. The tax would hit married couples with adjusted gross incomes exceeding $1 million a year and individuals over $500,000 — just three-tenths of 1 percent of all households, Democrats said.”
The bill will have a public option, but it won’t be that “robust” version, per The Hill : "Speaker Nancy Pelosi is to unveil a health overhaul bill Thursday that includes the public health insurance option favored by her party's centrists. Pelosi (D-Calif.) will introduce a plan similar to what a group of Blue Dog Democrats negotiated in July to get a healthcare bill out of the Energy and Commerce Committee. The proposal calls for the officials who run the public plan to negotiate rates individually with physicians and hospitals."
Turning to the Senate side, Roll Call writes: "In his quest to pass health care reform, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) is pursuing a potentially risky, step-by-step strategy that banks on momentum from the debate and a hard push from the White House to get the bill over the finish line this year."
CONTINUED >>
Stu Rothenberg on the ’09 elections: "If George W. Bush were still in the White House, Deeds almost certainly would be elected governor of Virginia, so it’s a little difficult to swallow the argument that national politics has nothing to do with the Virginia results. But it’s also important to note that Virginia Republicans united behind their nominee and that McDonnell has kept his focus on jobs, taxes and transportation, rather than stressing social issues." In New Jersey, "[T]he result in the Garden State will say little or nothing about Obama." Nathan Gonzales looks at hyped House recruits who have flamed out. MASSACHUSETTS : The biggest issue distinction between the candidates the Boston Globe can find so far is on PAC contributions.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Norah O'Donnell and Matt Glick Sarah Palin's grandson, told CBS in an interview that -- among other things -- Palin had joked about her son Trig, who has Down's Syndrome.
Palin has released this statement through her spokesperson Meg Stapleton, which appears to refer to Levi's agreement to pose for Playgirl magazine:
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Roy Blunt (R-MO) criticized the Obama administration's handling of the swine flu virus breakout in overtly political terms today, linking shortages of the vaccine to America's "onerous regulatory and legal environment."
*** UPDATE *** have used the swine-flu vaccine as a weapon against Republicans, too.
*** UPDATE II *** voted AGAINST the supplemental appropriations bill providing funding for the vaccine.
From NBC's Mike Viqueira Nancy Pelosi and top House Democrats will hold an event tomorrow morning to announce the outline of the House health-care bill that they will move to the floor.
And it looks like the "robust" public option is a bust: The measure is not expected to include the reimbursement rate to medical professions based on Medicare, plus 5%. Instead, it will include a public option based on rates negotiated region by region.
The event is tentatively scheduled for 10:00 am Thursday on the west front of the Capitol.
If you haven't been following this debate, "robust" vs. "not robust" may seem like a small distinction. After all, the bill WILL have a public option.
Companies like Verizon and J.P. Morgan Chase argue that the public option could drive up health care costs .But liberals have been fighting tooth and nail to have it based on "Medicare plus 5." They insist that this will be the best way to introduce price competition into the "exchange" of plans, where those who do not get employer-based coverage can go to shop for a plan. They call this "robust."
But moderates, many from rural areas, have balked. They say that their constituents will suffer from the lower rates, because that will make it harder to attract doctors. They say their hospitals will suffer shortfalls as well.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Athena Jones Sen. Edward William Brooke as congressional leaders from both sides of the aisle gathered Wednesday in the Capitol Rotunda to honor the first African-American to be elected by popular vote to the U.S. Senate.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi , Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid , Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell , House Republican Leader John Boehner and Sen. John Kerry joined President Obama at a ceremony to present Brooke with the Congressional gold medal, the highest civilian award presented by the legislative branch. It was an award made possible by legislation introduced by the late Sen. Ted Kennedy , a lifelong friend of Brooke's. Kennedy's widow Vicki Kennedy, was in the audience for today's presentation.
The first black president -- a man who made history himself last November -- lauded Brooke as a man who spent his life breaking barriers and bridging divides across the country.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Vice President Dick Cheney will back Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in her gubernatorial primary against incumbent Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), according to her campaign.
Cheney is set to appear at a fundraiser and campaign event in Houston for Hutchison on Nov. 17.
Per the AP : "The former vice president is popular with conservative activists and could help Hutchison bolster support among them."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
And New York Gov. David Paterson and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell have laid down their bets -- weekend getaways for a fan of the other team.
"The state with the losing team will offer a weekend vacation to a resident of the state with the winning team," according to a Paterson press release. "Accommodations, meals and tickets for the vacation package will be donated by the respective companies, organizations and venues hosting the trip. The losing city will host the all-expenses paid weekend getaway. ...
"If the Yankees win, a New Yorker and guest will enjoy the luxury accommodations at the Park Hyatt at the Bellevue, be treated to dinner at the Prime Rib, VIP access at a cultural event, as well as brunch at Parc in the inviting Rittenhouse Square during an all-access VIP weekend. If the Phillies win, a Pennsylvania resident and guest will stay at the Sheraton New York Hotel & Towers and will dine at the award winning 21 Club in midtown Manhattan. Transportation will be provided by Amtrak between Philadelphia and New York."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Our latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll surveyed more than 1,000 adults across the country. We followed up with a handful of these respondents, to get their thoughts on President Obama, Afghanistan, health care, and more. Below are some excerpts from these interviews, and here's a
Web video with their comments.
On Obama the President Andrew Maxwell, California: If I have one criticsm of the Obama administration it's that they're too tepid. Ultimately they're worried about political atmospherics too much.
Rosalind Godin, Maryland: I know he inherited a lot of problems from the previous administration and I know it's going to take a lot of time to correct some of those problems.
We are seeing some of the same old tried and unproven solutions to things, so I dont think the last ten months have been incredibly productive... I was very excited at the prospect of someone who could be a bridge builder. I haven't seen a lot of bridges being built right now.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly Paice Republican Sen. John McCain , along with four of his colleagues on the Hill, yesterday introduced a bipartisan post-9/11 Troops to Teachers Enhancement Act, which expands and modernizes the current Troops to Teachers (TTT) program with the goal of having more troops continue their service in the classroom.Michael Bennet of Colorado, former Superintendent of Denver Public Schools, said that America has the strongest military in the world and the experiences troops have can reach "beyond the battlefield and into schools and classrooms" with this program.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Hillary Clinton was welcomed to Pakistan by a car bomb explosion in Peshawar -- as well as word of the latest terror attacks in Afghanistan.
Just as Clinton was embarking on a trip to emphasize that the U.S. was not only focused on security and terror -- but also wanted a broader relationship with Pakistan -- the terror attacks brought home the brutal reality of Pakistan's dilemma: Under pressure from the U.S., the government has launched its long delayed attack against insurgents in tribal areas. But the extremists have responded with a spate of attacks, undermining the legitimacy of the government and angering Pakistanis frustrated by the lack of security.
:
A massive car bomb rocks a crowded market in Pakistan hours after Secretary of State Hilary Clinton arrives in the country. At a news conference today with Pakistan's foreign minister, Clinton said that she wanted to turn the page on the U.S. relationship with Pakistan and build on mutual respect and shared responsibilities. "While we may disagree from time to time as friends and partners do" Clinton said, she vowed to do more thru people to people diplomacy.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd Sen. Chuck Hagel will be at the White House event this afternoon where he'll be named by the president as co-chair of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board.
Sources confirm this account in the trade pub, Foreign Policy .
According to THEIR report, Hagel will be charged with "overseeing the work of the intelligence agencies for the president and unvestigating violations of the law" by folks in this community.
Hagel never did endorse John McCain in the 2008 campaign and Hagel's wife was a donor to Obama . It was a poorly held secret that Hagel preferred Obama over McCain. It's been surprising that it's taken the White House this long to find a place for Hagel as he'd been one of those Republicans long rumored to join the administration in some capacity.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Business as usual: We're soon coming up on the one-year anniversary of Barack Obama's presidential win. And one of the messages he used during the two-year campaign -- with much success -- was that he stood for changing the ways of Washington. But a year later, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Washington is about as unpopular as it ever was. In the survey, just 23% say they trust government, which is the lowest number on this question in 12 years. What’s more, nearly half of respondents (46%) support building an independent political party to compete with the Democrats and Republicans. And nearly six in 10 (57%) blame both Ds and Rs for the partisanship in Washington; 24% blame only the Republicans and 17% blame the Democrats. “I was hoping that business as usual was going to stop with the Obama administration,” said poll respondent Brian Gross of Poolesville, MD, “and so far I just haven’t seen that.” As we’ve asked before: Does the president need to do something symbolic to show he's trying to change the D.C. culture? Maybe veto a bill with earmarks?
*** Obama, The Man vs. Obama, The President: President Obama hasn’t been immune to this anger at Washington, although he remains the most popular politician in the poll. His job-approval rating remains at 51% for a third-straight survey, 56% have a favorable view of him, and a combined 74% say they like him personally. Indeed, our poll -- which measured the president on 16 different attributes -- makes it clear that the public likes Obama the man much more than Obama the president. His high scores on personal qualities (such as being easygoing and likeable, being inspirational and exciting, improving America’s image around the world, etc.) averaged in the low 60s. But his grades on professional attributes (being a good commander-in-chief, uniting the country, changing business as usual in Washington, and achieving his goals) averaged in the low 40s. In fact, just 38% gave him high marks for uniting the country, which is a 32-point drop (!!!) from our January 2009 poll. To borrow that line from the ‘80s, “Where’s the beef?” The potentially good news here for Obama is that he has time to boost his professional scores, especially if/when health care passes.
*** A tipping point? But it's as if Obama is at a tipping point right now. So far, his personal ratings have held up, and the public has only taken it out on him professionally. The more pessimistic the country gets the more likely he'll see erosion on those personal qualities. Then again, his strong personal ratings give him some latitude and provide an opportunity to improve the professional scores. A signed health care bill, a decision on Afghanistan, progress on the jobs front are all events that could move the numbers. Another thing: If you were trying to find words to describe our NBC/WSJ poll, you might choose “unstable stability.” The numbers are pretty stable, but the public is feeling anything but…
*** Time to resurrect that dog food metaphor? While impressions of Obama’s professional performance are mixed, the same can’t be said of the Republican Party at large. Put simply, the GOP’s brand is still a mess. According to the poll, just 25% have a positive opinion of the party (compared with 42% for the Dem Party), which ties the GOP's low-water mark in the survey and which is a worse score than it ever had during the Bush presidency. (Honest question: Can the party still blame Bush for their problems if their numbers have gotten lower since he left the scene?) In addition, only 23% approve of the way in which congressional Republicans have handled health care (compared with 43% for Obama). And looking ahead to the 2010 midterms, 46% prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 38% who want a GOP-controlled Congress. Last month, Dems held a 43%-40% advantage. Also, don’t miss this: Despite being out of office and (relatively) out of the news, Sarah Palin’s fav/unfav in our poll has dropped from 32%-43% in July to 27%-46% now. In fact, her numbers now are nearly identical to Nancy Pelosi’s (26%-42%). By the way, both Palin and Pelosi are more popular than the Republican Party.
*** On Afghanistan: Today’s big headlines are out of Afghanistan, where NBC’s Brian Williams has been reporting from for past couple of days. One, October has been the deadliest month for U.S. troops in the country. Two, several U.N. workers were killed in Kabul after an early morning attack by the Taliban. So what are Americans views on Afghanistan? Per our poll, by a 47%-44% margin, respondents support increasing the troop level there, which is a reversal from last month, when 51% opposed an increase and 44% supported it. Also, as Republicans criticize Obama for waiting to announce his troop decision -- Dick Cheney recently said the president was “dithering” -- almost six in 10 (58%) say they support delaying a decision until after Afghanistan’s run-off election on Nov. 7. And when presented with four different approaches to Afghanistan, the most acceptable (at 55%) was sending 10,000 more troops to the country, while the least acceptable (at 43%) was Gen. McChrystal’s recommendation of 40,000 more troops. To put it another way, it's more acceptable to Americans to send more troops (10,00 in this case) than not sending ANY more troops. This finding also was noteworthy: 62% said they had more confidence in the generals on the ground to make the right decisions on military strategy, versus 25% who said they had more confidence in the president.
*** On health care: The NBC/WSJ poll also shows that opinions on the health-care debate haven’t changed much over the past month. Only 38% percent believe that Obama’s health plan is a good idea, compared with 42% who said it’s a bad idea, which is virtually identical to last month's score. But what has changed -- slightly (and within the margin of error) -- is the opposition to a public option. Last month’s poll found that Americans OPPOSED it by a 48%-46% margin. But now they SUPPORT it by a 48%-42% score.
*** More pro-gay, more pro-life, and more pro-gun: Besides all these numbers, perhaps the most interesting findings in the NBC/WSJ come on a series of questions about social issues. On the one hand, the percentage of respondents believing that abortion decisions should be left to a woman and her doctor has dropped from 55% in 2007 to 51% now. On the other hand, the opposition to gay marriage also has dropped, from 62% opposed in 2004 to 49% now. And also decreasing is the public’s support for gun-control measures. In 1991, three-quarters of Americans supported banning the sale of assault weapons and semiautomatic rifles. Yet this past April, 53% favored it, and in this new poll 49% say they support the ban. So as much as we in the media and both parties try to fit Americans into neat red-blue boxes on social issues, it isn't that easy.
*** Have Republicans found their Ned Lamont? With Joe Lieberman back in the news, here’s a question we pose to folks: Has conservative Doug Hoffman in that NY-23 special congressional election become the GOP’s Ned Lamont? Well, supporting Hoffman over the more moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava certainly has become a Republican litmus test of sorts for 2012, much like supporting Lamont over Lieberman was back in ’06. The only difference to us is how FAST Republican politicians like Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty have backed Hoffman. Remember that the Democratic establishment (including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) didn’t start supporting Lamont until after he had won the Democratic nomination over Lieberman in that 2006 Senate contest. RNC Chair Michael Steele said on “Morning Joe” that he was supporting the Republican candidate in the race, Scozzafava.
*** Holding your nose while voting in NJ: In the latest Quinnipiac poll measuring the New Jersey gubernatorial contest, Jon Corzine's (D) lead over Chris Christie (R) has narrowly increased from 41%-40% to 43%-38%, but that's margin of error movement. Chris Daggett, meanwhile, remains in the low teens (13%). Now among Daggett supporters, 43% of them say Christie's their second choice, while 27% picked Corzine. Other polls have had this breakdown differently. Christie's fav/unfav is still upside down at 37%-42%; Corzine's is a tad worse, 41%-52%; and Daggett sports the ONLY net positive rating at 21%-16%. By the way, Corzine's job rating is UNDER 40 -- at 39%. The state legislature in the state has an even LOWER approval rating at 26% (will that translate to down ballot churn?) Now, here's the best explanation in this poll why Corzine's ahead. He's got a net positive rating on the question of being honest and trustworthy (46%-44%), while Christie has a net NEGATIVE rating on this question, 37%-39%.
*** Obama’s day: At 11:00 am ET, President Obama delivers the Congressional Gold Medal to former Massachusetts Sen. Edward Brooke (R). At 2:10 pm, the president signs the National Defense Authorization Act into law. And then at 6:05 pm, he delivers remarks at an event commemorating the enactment of the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 6 days
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President Obama rallied yesterday for Creigh Deeds, the embattled Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee, who finds himself trailing his Republican opponent, Bob McDonnell, by double digits in most recent polls. With Election Day only a week away, Obama, the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Virginia in 44 years, spoke of the difficulty of getting elected in Virginia, but urged the crowd at Norfolk's Old Dominion University that the race was not yet over.
The New York Times on Obama and Virginia: “While the president has only tepidly engaged in the contest, the outcome is seen by many as at least some kind of a test of Mr. Obama’s popularity, considering he was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry Virginia in 45 years.” And although press secretary Robert Gibbs yesterday told reporters that “the notion that this [election is] somehow a referendum on President Obama is just not the case,” at the rally the president “linked himself directly to the Democratic candidate. ‘We have just begun to deliver on the change you voted for, and we need a partner like Creigh Deeds to help us finish what we started,’ Mr. Obama said.”
Here’s our take on the latest NBC/WSJ poll: “As the Obama administration decides whether or not to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a plurality of Americans now backs a troop increase, and a strong majority supports waiting on a decision until after the country conducts its presidential runoff election next month. Also, as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid moves forward crafting a Senate health-care bill that contains a public option -- with a state "opt out" -- the survey shows support for a government-run insurance plan is at its highest level since the debate began and opposition is at its lowest level.”
:
As President Obama weighs whether to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, a new NBC/WSJ poll suggests that the American public would support the decision.
CONTINUED >>
Roll Call on the Lieberman news yesterday: "Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.) told his Democratic colleagues nearly a year ago that they would 'not regret' letting him keep his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. But after Lieberman signaled Tuesday his willingness to filibuster the Democrats’ top legislative priority this year -- health care reform -- leaders may feel the need to remind him of his own words in order to avoid another vote on punishing one of their own."
:
Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., reacts to Sen. Joe Lieberman's decision to join the Republican filibuster and block the health care reform bill. "Senate GOP Whip Jon Kyl (Ariz.) on Tuesday said he supports the idea of allowing states to decide whether to opt in to a publicly run health plan. Kyl told
The Hill he remains opposed to the Senate Democrats’ plan, which is being scored by the Congressional Budget Office… Kyl’s statement could offer the seeds of a compromise with Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), though a bipartisan accord is unlikely."
NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and others will be on the Hill today for a hearing on NFL players and brain injury. Goodell is expected to say "that while the research by the University of Michigan was "a telephone survey and not a true medical diagnosis," the number of players reporting memory-related problems is a concern. In written testimony to the House Judiciary Committee, he said the NFL will offer free follow-up medical work to 56 players who reported dementia, Alzheimer's disease or other memory-related problems in the survey. Goodell said the league also will reach out to the players to see whether they are receiving money from the 88 Plan, which provides up to $88,000 a year to former players suffering from dementia, Alzheimer's or Parkinson's, regardless of the cause."Members" team beat the Capitol Police , 32-26 in their flag football game.
First Read has learned that Sarah Palin could be heading to Iowa on Nov. 21 to be the featured speaker at the Iowa Family Policy Center’s fall fundraiser.
Here's the take from TheIowaRepublican.com : “In an ironic twist, Palin’s appearance would occur just across the street from the Iowa Democratic Party’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner, which will be held at Hy-Vee Hall. The Iowa Family Policy Center was originally scheduled to hold its event at Hy-Vee Hall, but IFPC was asked to relocate once the Iowa Democratic Party confirmed Vice President Biden as its keynote speaker. As a consolation, the Iowa Events Center reportedly offered IFPC Action the 16,000 seat Wells Fargo Arena at a greatly reduced rate.”
FLORIDA: The Washington Times has a little fun at Charlie Crist's expense for ducking Obama's visit to the state earlier this week. It is worth noting that when Obama went to Louisiana, Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal WAS there to greet the president.
NEW JERSEY: A new Quinnipiac poll shows Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie 43%-38%, with independent Chris Daggett at 13%. An Oct. 14 survey had Christie ahead of Corzine, 41%-40%. Of those who said they supported Daggett, “38 percent say they might change their mind: 43 percent say Christie is their second choice, while 27 percent say Gov. Corzine is number two.” World Series will have a very serious impact on this campaign because nobody's going to be focused," said Brigid Harrison, a political scientist at Montclair State University and a Phillies fan. Time on newscasts usually devoted to the gubernatorial race will now be all about the Yankees and Phillies --although the new focus may be a boon for wealthy candidate Jon Corzine, who can afford airing commercials in pricey game-time slots.
NEW YORK: "The floodgates have officially opened on the Republican leaders who are trying to hold together Member support, or at least minimize outright opposition, for the party’s nominee, Dede Scozzafava, in next week’s special House election in upstate New York," Roll Call writes. "On Tuesday, former National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.), Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.) spurned the leadership by endorsing Doug Hoffman’s third-party campaign in the New York special election, following the lead of Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.), who announced his support for Hoffman on Friday. Other national conservative GOP leaders, such as former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), have also endorsed Hoffman, and Thompson is now appearing in a Hoffman TV ad that began airing Tuesday."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
What’s more, nearly half of respondents (46%) support building an independent political party to compete with the Republicans and Democrats.
And nearly six in 10 (57%) blame both Republicans and Democrats for the partisanship in Washington; 24% blame the Republicans only, while 17% point their finger at the Democrats.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Lieberman 's talk of filibuster ACTUALLY means, we turned to our Senate wise-man Ken Strickland, who explained it in football terms, essentially this way:
Right now Lieberman's with Reid. Reid needs a first down. And Lieberman's with Reid for that first down. Reid doesn't have enough votes quite yet for that first down, but Lieberman's with him -- for now.
And that first down is getting the bill to the floor, i.e., getting 60 senators to vote for cloture, in other words, 60 senators who would allow the bill to get to the floor.
Lieberman would not vote for the final version of the bill if it contains a public option, but he is ok with allowing debate and amendments to be added.
Point is, Reid needs first downs before he can get to the red zone or even the end zone. And right now, he doesn't even have the votes for that first down. So let's not get too far ahead of ourselves and try to predict what will happen in the red zone -- if Democrats carry the ball that far.
*** UPDATE ***
Lieberman would not filibuster on the front end, but he would on the back end. The front end is the more important one.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Sarah Palin is weighing in again from her perch as conservative sage, urging voters to support Chris Christie in New Jersey, Bob McDonnell in Virginia and... the Republican Governors Association.
"Like other independent Americans, I don’t always see eye-to-eye with Republican political committees, so when I tell you that the Republican Governors Association has my complete support and confidence in its campaign efforts back East, know that I really mean it," Palin wrote. "The RGA is helping lead the conservative comeback beginning this year, and its involvement in the East Coast races is significant. I hope you'll support these efforts, which are vital to the cause for America's freedom and prosperity."
By the way, the former Alaska governor apparently penned the 589-word Facebook "Note" from a freshmen girls basketball game.
Boring game? No. She was "struck by the sight of America's future right in front of me -- these tenacious young women full of energy and intensity. I want them to realize every opportunity this great, free nation can provide. ... The young student athletes I'm watching right now are counting on us to do the right thing -- to fight for what is right for America today and into their future. Electing candidates with common sense and respect for freedom is one way we can fight for what is right."
Still, it couldn't have been THAT great a game if she's writing this from there. Nonetheless, the RGA isn't complaining. Think there'll be a spike in contributions in their next FEC report, coinciding with Oct. 27th.
From NBC's Ken Strickland Harry Reid (D-NV) is still short of the 60 votes he needs to even get the healthcare on the floor.
Passage is another issue.
Still firmly uncommitted to vote with Reid are Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA).
"I'm not going to make up my mind until I've actually seen the bill," Nelson said.
Landrieu said, "I'm very skeptical about what he outlined yesterday for a number of reasons."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Joe Lieberman .
Politico 's reporting that the independent Connecticut senator who caucuses with the Democrats -- and backed the Iraq war and staunchly supported John McCain 's presidential bid -- said he would vote with a potential Republican filibuster of Majority Leader Harry Reid 's bill because it includes a public option.
Here are the quotes:
"We're trying to do too much at once. To put this government-created insurance company on top of everything else is just asking for trouble for the taxpayers, for the premium payers and for the national debt. I don’t think we need it now."
He'd vote against a plan with a public option “even with an opt-out because it still creates a whole new government entitlement program for which taxpayers will be on the line. ... I've told Sen. Reid that if the bill stays as it is now I will vote against cloture."
Which Democrat handed him a gavel again?
*** UPDATE *** NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that
That means Lieberman plans to join Democrats on the first vote to get the bill to the debate stage on the Senate floor. Then if a public option remains, Lieberman would likely go against the Democrats and vote no.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Talking Points Memo on what Lieberman might do...
Lieberman is saying that he's pretty much OK with letting senators offer amendments--try to change the legislation, move it in any direction they deem necessary. But when that process is all over, and Harry Reid wants to hold an up or down vote on the final product, Lieberman's saying he'll join that filibuster, if he's not happy with the finished product. Point blank.
From NBC's Mark Murray Harry Reid moves forward crafting a Senate health-care bill that contains a public option -- with a state "opt out" -- the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows support for a government-run insurance plan at its highest level since the debate began.
According to the poll, 48% say they favor a public health plan administered by the federal government that would compete with private insurers, compared with 42% who oppose it. That's a shift from last month, though within the margin of error, when 48% opposed the public option and 46% supported it. And it's a 10-point swing from August, when 47% were in opposition and 43% were in favor.
In another question asked a different way -- is it important to give people a choice of a public option? -- a combined 72% answered that it was either "extremely important" or "quite important," while just 23% said it was "not that important" or "not at all important." Those numbers are virtually unchanged from last month.
The NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted Oct. 22-25, has a margin of error of +/- 4.4% on these two questions. The full poll will be released on Nightly News, and MSNBC.com, beginning at 6:30 pm ET.
From NBC's Betsy Cline Eric Cantor (R-VA) predicts next week's gubernatorial race in Virginia will be an "overwhelming victory" for Republican candidate Bob McDonnell . Republicans, he said, will use the win to address the American people about restoring balance in Washington.
In 2008, Virginia voted for President Obama by six percentage points, the first time the state had gone Democratic is a presidential race in 44 years. In a Washington Post poll released this morning, McDonnell leads Democrat Creigh Deeds by 11 points. Cantor called the change a "stunning turnabout," attributed to McDonnell's focus on jobs and fixing the economy.
Cantor said the Virginia race is a referendum on the Democrats' policies over the past year. "We've seen the intensity grow across the Commonwealth," Cantor said, "and it's premised on the rejection of the policies and over-reach seen on Capitol Hill."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Luke Russert Steny Hoyer (D-MD) acknowledged that President Obama is still determining the objective of fighting the war in Afghanistan,
"I believe that the president is in a very considered, thoughtful careful way considering what our options are and what resources we need to accomplish our objectives," Hoyer said, "first of all what our objectives are going to be and deciding what resources we need to accomplish those objectives.”
Hoyer then asserted that NATO needs to do more in the war-torn country: “I still think it is an important objective for our NATO allies and for others in the international community; I think that it is not the United States’ burden alone. It is the burden of a lot.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
Seven Americans and the translator were killed when their patrol struck a roadside bomb, and then they were immediately attacked with RPGs and small arms fire by enemy forces.
One American was killed in a similar attack on a U.S. patrol in a separate area in the south part of the country.
The two incidents came "a couple of hours apart." The U.S. military is withholding the exact locations and the Americans service affiliation pending notification of next of kin.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Public option or bust : For the past several weeks, we've wondered whether progressives were crazy for turning the public option into the Holy Grail of the health-care debate. After all, neither Obama nor the other Democrats running for president ever made it a central part of their health-care pitches during the campaign. Also, according to estimates, a public option would attract just some 12 million Americans (about the size of Illinois). And most important of all, the 60 votes to avoid a filibuster didn't seem to be there. As a result, the C.W. has always been that there would be no public option in the Senate bill -- or, at most, you’d have the so-called “trigger.” But due to liberal pressure, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced yesterday that the Senate legislation will contain a compromise “opt out” public option provision. It was a stunning development, and if a public option is included in the final bill, you've got to credit the progressive community (liberal senators, MoveOn, HCAN, PCCC, HuffPo) for fighting for it, even if it once looked like a quixotic quest.
*** Baucus is on board; what about Conrad? But getting 60 votes -- i.e., convincing moderate Dems like Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, et al, not to be a part of any filibuster -- still is going to be tricky for Senate Democrats and the White House. Yet if this statement from Max Baucus is any indication, momentum could be on their side. “I included a public option in the health reform blueprint I released nearly one year ago, and continue to support any provision, including a public option, that will ensure choice and competition and get the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate,” said Baucus, whose Senate Finance Committee bill DID NOT include a public option. “Success should be our threshold and I am going to fight hard for the 60 votes we need to meet that goal this year." Then again, we’ll be curious to see what folks like Sen. Kent Conrad (D-Co-Op), Nelson, Lincoln, etc. say about the opt-out compromise. MoveOn (through letters and other pressure) says its members are warning any moderate Dem senator that he/she will lose their support if he/she joins Republicans to filibuster a health-care bill containing a public option.
*** A Snowe job? Make no mistake, Reid has made a big gamble here. While the White House is concerned only with passing a bill -- which is why it has tried to play both sides here (supporting the public option, but not drawing a line in the sand for it) -- Reid is weighing both passage and his own re-election prospects next year, which means he’ll need support from the Democratic base. One thing is for sure, however: Olympia Snowe (R), whom Baucus and the White House wooed for months, isn’t a fan of Reid’s move. "It's unfortunate the Senate majority leader decided to take a different path," Snowe said outside her office yesterday, per NBC’s Ken Strickland. "He did say it was a pretty good dog-gone good idea with respect to 'the trigger' in September. So I don't know what exactly has happened to change his mind." Here’s the standard line we heard from the White House yesterday: They have lost Snowe today. But it’s holding out hope she’s open-minded tomorrow. A final point: Don't assume the "opt out" ends up being the final solution on public option. White House sources tell us to keep an eye on the "opt in" -- lots of the ex-governors turned senators (think Carper, Bayh, and Nelson among others) like the idea of being able to make a decision to CHOOSE help from the federal level rather than having to DENY the help...
*** Poll day! So how do Americans view the public option? What are their opinions about the health debate in general, President Obama, Washington, Afghanistan strategy, the Republican Party, and even Sarah Palin? Well, beginning at 6:30 pm ET, tune into NBC Nightly News, or click on to MSNBC.com, for the results from our latest NBC/WSJ poll. As usual, we’ll probably release a few numbers before 6:30 pm.
*** Decision time is near? Decision time appears to be around the corner on Afghanistan. The Afghan runoff is set for Nov. 7; the president leaves for Asia on Nov. 11. Think we’ll get an Oval Office address somewhere in between those two calendar bookends? It's as good of a guess as any at this point. Administration sources caution that the calendar isn't rushing their decision, but they acknowledge the Nov. 7-Nov. 11 window WAS a goal (they won't call it a goal now). Bottom line: Doesn't the president need to have a plan in place on Afghanistan before he meets with key allies in Asia (including Japan and China)? You bet he does. By the way, expect ANOTHER war council meeting sometime later this week (Thurs. or Fri.). Given the current unofficial timetable, one has to think this is the type of meeting that focuses on coming to a conclusion and making sure EVERYONE at the table supports the decision and is willing to politically SELL it.
*** Another awkward moment : About a month ago, President Obama traveled to Upstate New York to deliver a speech on the economy, which produced a very awkward moment with Gov. David Paterson (D) in the crowd. The reason: Just a day before, the New York Times published an article noting that the White House was encouraging Paterson not to run next year. Well, courtesy of administration aides complaining about Creigh Deeds’ campaign in Friday’s Washington Post, we might see another awkward moment when Obama campaigns for Deeds in Norfolk, VA beginning at 4:55 pm ET. Obama’s appearance with Deeds comes as a new Washington Post poll shows the Democrat trailing Bob McDonnell (R) by 11 percentage points, 55%-44%. Per the Post: "Seven in 10 say the president -- who remains relatively popular with an approval rating of 54 percent among likely voters and 57 percent among all those registered to vote -- won't be a factor in their vote one way or the other. These findings suggest that the Virginia race may not be the early referendum on the Obama presidency that it is often held up to be."
*** The enthusiasm gap : Yet the real headline in the poll may be the enthusiasm gap between McDonnell and Deeds. “About a quarter of Deeds voters say they are supporting him ‘not too’ enthusiastically or ‘not at all’ enthusiastically,” the Post writes. “More than nine in 10 of those who back McDonnell are ‘very’ enthusiastic or ‘fairly’ enthusiastic about the Republican.” This means Obama’s visit couldn't be coming at a better time for Deeds. Just how big will today's rally be? And how effective can a Tuesday rally be? By the way, word is he's cut his TV ad spending big time; in fact, he's barely up in the D.C. market, so reports the Washington Post’s Cillizza. The real issue for Virginia Democrats now is that a Deeds loss could produce a disastrous coattail problem -- a statewide sweep of the three offices (LG and AG) and even cost Democrats a bunch of legislative seats.
*** Full of energy : Before Obama stumps with Deeds, he gives a speech on energy and jobs in Arcadia, FL at 12:25 pm ET. In his remarks from the DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center, Obama will tout smart-grid technologies that will modernize the nation’s electricity grid. Vice President Biden also has an energy/jobs event today in Delaware, where he will make an announcement about the future of a former GM plant. These events aren’t getting the attn the White House wants. But it isn't about today; it's about whether what they DELIVER today actually produces the jobs they believe will be created.
*** Swine flu worries? It's not a Katrina moment. BUT the Obama administration is getting anxious over this vaccine issue, since it went public months ago promising about five times more dosages available by this time than the science apparently could produce. The Washington Post : "In July, Obama administration officials said companies could make 80 million to 120 million doses by mid-October. They outlined an aggressive response to the pandemic, spending more than $2 billion to buy 250 million doses of vaccine and promising enough to inoculate every American. But only about 16.5 million doses have become available so far, putting the administration in an uncomfortable political position regarding what President Obama declared last week to be a national emergency.”
*** NY-23, yeah you know me : Well, it’s official: The national press corps has discovered the most interesting political race of the 2009 cycle -- the NY-23 special congressional election, where a GOP split threatens to give a Democrat control of this seat for the first time since the 19th century. Here’s Politics Daily’s Walter Shapiro : “The consensus of political insiders (and no one should bank on this) is that Owens has the lead because of party identification, Hoffman is gaining momentum, and Scozzafava appears to be fading, despite her strong base in Watertown media market, which makes up about one third of the district." The New York Times front-pages the race, and the L.A. Times also writes: "The conservative rebellion in northern New York is showing that the anger among disaffected voters, which became prominent this summer during the "tea party" anti-spending rally in Washington and at town hall meetings on healthcare, has become a baffling political force that even Republicans are having a hard time harnessing." If the Dems win this seat, the issue of the GOP split will become the political press corps' shiny metal object, and will take any positive momentum the party wants to grab out of winning Virginia.
*** Biden as Cheney -- at least on the campaign trail : Per NBC’s Kelly Paice, Vice President Biden has now campaigned or helped raise money for fifteen House Democrats this year: Rep. John Adler (NJ), Rep. John Boccieri (OH), Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA), Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ), Rep. Alan Grayson (FL), Rep. Deborah Halvorson (IL), Rep. Jim Himes (CT), Rep. Paul Hodes (NH), Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH), Rep. Larry Kissell (NC), Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (FL), Rep. Dan Maffei (NY), Rep. Glenn Nye (VA), Tom Perriello (D-VA), Zach Space (OH). What’s more, Biden is set to headline fundraising events next week for New York Reps. Michael McMahon and Scott Murphy (NY). In a way, Biden has taken on the role that Dick Cheney played 2001-2003 as the Bush administration’s go-to guy to help House candidates.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 7 days
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“Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid announced Monday that he will include a government-backed insurance plan in the chamber's health-care reform legislation, a key concession to liberals who have threatened to oppose a bill without such a public option,” the Washington Post front-pages. “Reid's decision was a reversal from two weeks ago, when the Nevada Democrat appeared inclined to set aside the idea -- among the most divisive in the reform debate -- in an attempt to avoid alienating party moderates. Doubts remain about whether he has the votes to guarantee passage, but he said he concluded that in the interest of bringing the strongest possible bill to the Senate floor next month, adding a public option was a risk worth taking.”
The New York Times : “With Republicans united for now in opposition to any bill including a public option, Mr. Reid needs support from all members of his caucus — 58 Democrats and two independents — to take up the legislation. Aides said Monday that he appeared to be short of that goal, lacking firm commitments from several members of the caucus.”
"Reid’s decision could cost him the support of Sen. Olympia Snowe (Maine), the only Republican to support a healthcare bill in Congress this year," The Hill notes , adding: "The lack of GOP support could unnerve centrists such as Sens. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.)."
So what's behind the decision for Reid? In part, keeping labor unions happy…
CONTINUED >>
So why are we short vaccines? Does the administration have to answer for this? They are blaming the drugmakers (who apparently over-promised) and everyone is blaming science. "In July, Obama administration officials said companies could make 80 million to 120 million doses by mid-October. They outlined an aggressive response to the pandemic, spending more than $2 billion to buy 250 million doses of vaccine and promising enough to inoculate every American,” the Washington Post says.
"But only about 16.5 million doses have become available so far, putting the administration in an uncomfortable political position regarding what President Obama declared last week to be a national emergency. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said in television interviews Monday that officials had been ‘relying on the manufacturers to give us their numbers, and as soon as we got numbers we put them out to the public. It does appear now that those numbers were overly rosy.’”
"Senator John F. Kerry defended President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan as 'a patriot' yesterday and suggested that the United States should not try to make Afghanistan into a perfect democracy," the Boston Globe writes. "Days after he persuaded Karzai to agree to a Nov. 7 runoff election following widespread allegations of fraud, Kerry told the Council on Foreign Relations that the United States should radically lower its expectations for Afghanistan. In his most comprehensive remarks yet on his view of the way forward in Afghanistan, Kerry said there are no good options, but that transferring responsibility to an Afghan government that is capable of battling the Taliban offers the best chance for US troops to be able to come home." Roll Call : "President Barack Obama will be on Capitol Hill on Wednesday morning for a ceremony honoring former Sen. Edward William Brooke (R-Mass.), the first African-American elected by popular vote to the Senate."
Emerging C.W.: "The GOP could lose its fifth of five big special elections in two years -- a development that has Republicans asking why the irregular races continue to bedevil their party, even as it rebounds in other ways," The Hill notes. And, as we've noted at First Read, the problems the GOP has faced in NY-23, in particular, could serve as a precursor to next year's 2010 primaries. "GOP consultant Brian Donahue said Hoffman’s success in recent polling shows the ensuing battle between pragmatism and idealism that Republicans will face in many other races, including a few Senate races where big-name centrists face grassroots favorites."
MASSACHUSETTS : The candidates for Senate debated last night. Here’s the Boston Globe’s take : "In their first debate of the campaign, the four Democratic candidates for US Senate sparred gently last night, each seeking to play to a liberal base and win recognition as the rightful heir to the seat once held by Edward M. Kennedy. The debate allowed the four to highlight their candidacies and their themes: US Representative Michael E. Capuano played to his blue-collar progressive roots and his insider political skills; Attorney General Martha Coakley was crisp and efficient, showing a command of the issues and making a point to address the camera; Stephen G. Pagliuca and Alan Khazei presented their nonpolitical backgrounds as assets." NEW JERSEY : Gov. Jon Corzine admitted on CNN that “it might have been a 'good idea' to use different wording in a campaign commercial criticized by some as a cheap shot at his Republican opponent's girth.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama campaigns for Creigh Deeds (D) in Virginia's gubernatorial race, the latest Washington Post poll finds Deeds trailing Bob McDonnell (R) by 11 percentage points among likely voters, 55%-44%. A Post poll from earlier this month had McDonnell leading by nine, 53%-44%.
The election will take place a week from tomorrow.
From the Post's poll story : "Seven in 10 say the president -- who remains relatively popular with an approval rating of 54 percent among likely voters and 57 percent among all those registered to vote -- won't be a factor in their vote one way or the other. These findings suggest that the Virginia race may not be the early referendum on the Obama presidency that it is often held up to be."
And: "McDonnell holds double-digit advantages when it comes to dealing with the economy (plus 17 percentage points), transportation (16 points), taxes (25 points) and has overtaken Deeds as the one more trusted to handle issues of special concern to women (7 points). On taxes, which has been a focal point of the campaign in recent weeks, McDonnell has stretched his lead significantly, and now holds a better than 2 to 1 lead over Deeds among independent voters."
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama told the crowd at the Naval Air Station here Monday afternoon that he would not rush his decision on whether to deploy more troops to the volatile region.
In brief remarks to some 3,500 sailors, Coast Guard, Army, Guard and Reserve personnel and military families, Obama thanked servicemen and women for their willingness to sacrifice for their country and called that service an inspiration to him as commander-in-chief, a role he called his greatest honor.
"While I will never hesitate to use force to protect the American people or our vital interests, I also promise you this-and this is very important as we consider our next steps in Afghanistan: I will never rush the solemn decision of sending you into harm's way," the president said. "I won't risk your lives unless it is absolutely necessary. And if it is necessary, we will back you up. Because you deserve the strategy, the clear mission, the defined goals and the equipment and support you need to get the job done."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Harry Reid announced today that the Senate health-care bill his office would be writing -- merging the Senate HELP and Senate Finance bills -- would include the so-called "opt out" public option plan.
While acknowledging that the public option would not be a silver bullet, he said at a news conference this afternoon that it would work to level the playing field with private health insurers. "States would be able to determine if the public option works for them," he said, referring to the "opt out" provision.
Reid also disclosed that he had discussed his move with the White House, as well as with Sens. Chris Dodd (chairman of the HELP committee) and Max Baucus (chair of the Finance committee). And he said he would be sending the legislation to the Congressional Budget Office for an official price tag.
When asked during the Q&A with reporters whether he was 100% sure he could get 60 votes on legislation that includes a public option "opt out," Reid side-stepped that question, saying that the legislation would have the support of the Democratic caucus.
When asked whether this move would endanger Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R) support for any health-care bill, Reid answered that he had spoken with her on Friday, and that she had made clear that she doesn't support a public option of any kind.
:
Sen. Harry Reid says that the public option with an 'opt out' is the best way forward. Watch his news conference.
From NBC’s Libby Leist Sen. John Kerry said today Gen. Stanley McChrystal 's plan for surging tens of thousands of U.S. troops into Afghanistan "reaches too far, too fast." But, he also warned against any large pullout of American forces.
Speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations, Kerry, the chairman of Senate Foreign Relations committee, argued that more U.S. troops would not produce results if Afghan security forces are not effective and the governing and development capabilities of the Afghan government are lacking.
"The bottom line is that deploying additional troops won't result in sustainable gains if the Afghan security, civilian and governance capacity isn't there,” Kerry said. “And right now, as our generals will tell you, in many places, too many places, it isn't.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Democrats, aiming to avoid that kind of confusion in subsequent elections, began on Saturday in Washington to try and streamline the process. Ideas from members of the Democratic Change Commission -- a 36-member commission of elected officials, consultants and activists created by the Democratic National Committee at President Obama ’s request -- included encouraging states to move back the dates of their contests, reducing the number of automatic unpledged delegates (i.e. “superdelegates”), and drafting a standardized list of best practices for the 18 states that vote for a Democratic nominee through caucuses.
Commission members agreed that too many states hold their primaries too early in the nominating season, potentially breaking up momentum between the primaries and the general election. There was broad consensus that last year’s Super Tuesday elections on Feb. 5, in which 23 jurisdictions held their nominating contests, hurt all the campaigns because candidates couldn't hit all the states.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Doug Adams
First of all, it's important to recognize that the House and Senate are working on two different tracks when it comes to a "public option" government run insurance plan.
The House is more supportive of a strong public option (mainly because Democrats have the numbers to pass a plan and don't have to worry about a filibuster). House Speaker Pelosi is leading a fight for a "robust" public option -- also referred to as "Medicare Plus 5." What that means is under this plan, doctors and hospitals would be reimbursed for services at Medicare rates, plus 5%. (Pelosi was forced to admit on Friday that she doesn't have the votes for this plan yet, and the focus now seems to be shifting to other plans.)
"Medicare Plus 5" is considered too low a payment for some moderate Blue Dog Democrats, especially those from rural states who insist such a low reimbursement rate would make it even harder to attract enough doctors and hospitals to make the plan viable. They favor a second public option plan -- call it "negotiated reimbursement," which is just like it sounds -- payment rate for medical providers would be negotiated, independent of what rate Medicare pays. Some House members also call this the "hybrid" public option plan.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg *** Iraq, Afghanistan violence: Today, we’re not starting with health-care debate or the gubernatorial races in New Jersey or Virginia. Instead, the headlines are coming out of Iraq and Afghanistan. “Two synchronized suicide car bombings struck at the heart of the Iraqi government here on Sunday, severely damaging the Justice Ministry and provincial council complexes, leaving a scene of carnage that raised new questions about the government’s ability to secure its most vital operations." Then there was this : “A series of helicopter crashes killed 14 Americans in insurgent-wracked Afghanistan on Monday, the U.S. military said. It was one of the deadliest days of the war for U.S. troops.” All this comes as the president nears a decision on a new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy. He meets with the national security team this morning. The clock is ticking, as one would assume he has to make a decision before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 10. By the way, read between the lines of Washington Post story on the Pentagon war-gaming a couple of troop increase scenarios. Does this mean the president is leaning toward the 40,000 troop increase?
*** Jobs, jobs, jobs: Turning to the domestic front, the White House’s pro-active message this week might be "jobs, jobs, jobs." On Tuesday, Obama will be in Arcadia, FL for a tour of the DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center. (Also, Vice President Biden will be in Delaware to help christen a decision by an unknown auto company to turn a defunct Delaware factory into a plant for fuel batteries.) And later this week, sources tell us the president will speak to the NFIB, which is not exactly the friendliest audience to Democrats. But the administration wants to get him out front on the issue of small business and job creation.
*** Reid vs. Obama? OK, so the two Democratic leaders aren't at odds on health care, but there is some hand-wringing on both sides as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid tries to find 60 votes for HIS version of the public option (the “opt out”), while the White House doesn't want him doing anything that upsets the Olympia Snowe applecart. Could Reid and Speaker Pelosi, by going so public with their attempts to find the votes for the public option, be putting on a show of sorts, letting the left know they tried and finally ending up in a compromise? However, the White House yesterday stressed that the president and Reid are on the same page. “A rumor is making the rounds that the White House and Senator Reid are pursuing different strategies on the public option. Those rumors are absolutely false.” The New Republic’s Jon Cohn sums it all up: Obama “wants a good public plan but he wants a bill even more--and he's not sure that the former is compatible with the latter. So he's being careful--more careful, in fact, than some of his Senate allies would like.”
:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid now has his health bill set to go, but it contains an alternative to the public option which would allow states to opt-out. Will this bill work? *** The more things change…: Bloomberg's Al Hunt writes a column that has been waiting to be written: All of the promise of changing the way Washington does business hasn't been turned into a reality yet by the president. One just has to look at his fundraising schedule to see that the political realities continue to creep in. While unrelated, today's Washington Post story about Dem Rep. Pete Visclosky's use of earmarks to raise money is a reminder how just how the culture hasn't changed all that much, even as the party in control did change. Just asking, but if the president had vetoed an appropriations bill that contained earmarks (which he could have done this past spring), would he be looking like more of a change agent, making it harder for the Al Hunts of the world to note how the president has spent more time promising change than delivering on it? Speaking of vetoes, anyone else surprised he hasn't found something to veto? Talk about a way to show some Washington independence at a time when the rest of the country has had it up to HERE with Washington.
*** Obama’s day : At 11:30 am ET, President Obama meets with his national security team to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan. Attendees include Vice President Biden (via teleconference), Secretary of State Clinton, Defense Secretary Gates, National Security Adviser Jones, Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. (Is today’s war-gaming story in the Washington Post a sign that the president is going to reluctantly give McCrystal his troops?) After that, Obama travels to Jacksonville, FL, where he will address U.S. servicemen and servicewoman at the Naval Air Base. Then he heads to Miami, where he headlines a fundraiser for the DSCC and DCCC.
*** 2009 watch: It’s just a little over a week until Election Day… The coverage of the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia seem to underscore the conventional wisdom that Corzine and McDonnell are rising, while Deeds and Christie are flailing… On Saturday, the Corzine campaign announced that President Obama would return to New Jersey on Sunday, Nov. 1… Obama heads to Virginia to stump for Creigh Deeds tomorrow (not exactly the best GOTV day)… And Mitt Romney will campaign for McDonnell on Wednesday. It was interesting to hear over the weekend so many elected Republicans talk up McDonnell. He's on the verge of becoming the new darling of the party -- should the polls be right.
*** The micromanaging White House? A follow-up question from Friday’s Washington Post story, which included anonymous administration aides complaining about how Deeds has run his campaign so far: Come next year, is the White House really going to play armchair quarterback in the press -- in the 38 Senate, 37 governor, and 435 House races across the country? If so, it’s going to be a VERY busy and frustrating year for Team Obama. They are expected to help make decisions behind the scenes, but to go public BEFORE the election really is something that won't sit well with quite a few Democrats, even those who believe Deeds has been an awful candidate. Speaking of 2010, Vice President Biden today is in the battleground state of Ohio, where he attends events for three Ohio Democratic Reps. -- Mary Jo Kilroy, Zach Space, and John Boccieri. He participates in today’s briefing on Afghanistan via teleconference. And don’t miss this news via the New York Post’s Fred Dicker : New York AG Andrew Cuomo has apparently told Rudy Giuliani that he’s running for governor. “It was sent as a courtesy … and as a warning that the former presidential candidate would face a brutal and, according to a dozen recent polls, losing battle against the highly popular attorney general.”
*** The absent governor? An impeachment resolution targeting South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) will be introduced Tuesday. Will it go anywhere? Meanwhile, the Columbia State newspaper examines Sanford’s schedule, which in recent years suggested a governor who was no longer focused on the state’s business. “The portrait that emerges from Sanford's calendar -- his office's official record of his activities -- is one of a clear second-term focus elsewhere, not on South Carolina. By this year, staff meetings - almost nine a week in 2004 - had dwindled to just more than four a week, according to an analysis of Sanford's calendar by The State. Some of Sanford's public outreach, such as holding office hours in the far corners of the state, also had fallen by the wayside.”
*** Meet the Press, Take Two: Don’t miss Andrew Ross Sorkin and Dan Senor discussing their new books , the state of the global economy, and the culture of Wall Street in Meet the Press’ online extra.
*** Breaking into the boy’s club: Finally, we'd be remiss if we didn't pass along this stat from CBS' statistician poobah, Mark Knoller, who notes yesterday was Obama's 24th golf outing. It took Bush 43 more than two years to get to 24 rounds. Also, did it take a tough question by NBC's Savannah Guthrie on the boys-only hoops games to suddenly have the president his first woman golfing yesterday (Domestic Policy Adviser Melody Barnes)? Apparently. Timing wasn't coincidence, it seems.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 8 days
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“A series of helicopter crashes killed 14 Americans in insurgent-wracked Afghanistan on Monday, the U.S. military said. It was one of the deadliest days of the war for U.S. troops,” USA Today writes. “In the first crash, a chopper went down in the west of the country after leaving the scene of a firefight with insurgents, killing 10 Americans -- seven troops and three civilians working for the government. Eleven American troops, one U.S. civilian and 14 Afghans were also injured. In a separate incident in the south, two other U.S. choppers collided while in flight, killing four American troops and wounding two more, the military said.”
In addition, “Two synchronized suicide car bombings struck at the heart of the Iraqi government here on Sunday, severely damaging the Justice Ministry and provincial council complexes, leaving a scene of carnage that raised new questions about the government’s ability to secure its most vital operations,” the New York Times front-pages. “The bombers apparently passed through multiple security checkpoints before detonating their vehicles within a minute of each other, leaving at least 132 dead and more than 520 wounded strewn across crowded downtown streets.”
The Washington Post : “Sunday's attack, cutting through snarled traffic during the morning rush hour, was the worst in Baghdad since 2007… Unlike the carnage unleashed by attacks in crowded mosques, restaurants and markets, aimed at igniting sectarian strife, these blasts appeared to rely on a distinctly political logic. In elections scheduled for January to choose a new parliament, Maliki has staked his future on having restored a semblance of security to the war-wrecked country. In the street Sunday, where blood and ashen detritus mixed with water surging from broken mains, that claim seemed as tattered as the forlorn facades of the targeted buildings.”
"Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) both said Sunday they would not use the same language former Vice President Dick Cheney did to describe the president's decision making on the nation's Afghan strategy” -- Cheney said the White House was “dithering” -- but did not dispute the substance of his remarks."
“Responding to a dramatic surge in the number of U.S. swine flu cases, President Barack Obama has signed a proclamation declaring H1N1 influenza a national emergency. The order by Mr. Obama, announced on the weekend, will speed the ability of hospitals and health authorities to take measures to fight the pandemic through such steps as setting up tents in hospital parking lots to establish extra emergency room care and creating health clinics in school gymnasiums or community centers.”
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Health and Human Service Secretary Kathleen Sebelius discusses the swine flu crisis now that President Obama has officially declared swine flu a national emergency. The
Los Angeles Times says the health-insurance industry could benefit if reform passes. “The specifics of the healthcare legislation are still being hashed out on Capitol Hill, and key details will evolve in the days ahead. Even so, there is broad agreement that the final plan will, for the first time, require Americans to buy health coverage, with taxpayer subsidies for millions who cannot afford it.”
“For the health insurance industry, that means millions of new paying customers. What's more, there are likely to be no limits on what insurers can charge, while at the same time the plan is expected to limit competition from any new national government insurance plan that lawmakers create.”
CONTINUED >>
Per NBC’s Mike Viqueira, Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid has a health-care reform bill ready and will send it to the Congressional Budget Office today for an evaluation of costs, according to a top aide. The measure will include a public option with the "opt out," whereby states could individually decide to remove themselves from the government plan.
The Wall Street Journal has more: “Details of the legislation could change, but its broad outlines are becoming clear. Employers with more than 50 workers wouldn't be required to provide health insurance, but they would face fines of up to $750 per employee if even part of their work force received a government subsidy to buy health insurance, this person said. A bill passed by the Senate Finance Committee had a lower fine of up to $400 per employee… The bill is expected to expand health coverage to tens of millions of Americans by giving low- and middle-income Americans subsidies to offset the cost of insurance, and expanding the Medicaid federal-state insurance program to cover a broader swath of the poor. Most people would be required to buy insurance or pay a fine, though exceptions would be made for those deemed unable to afford it.”
Joe Lieberman, whom The Hill calls "one of a handful of Senate wild cards in this fall's healthcare reform debate," said his biggest concern is what it would do to the national deficit. “Insurers aren’t my biggest concern -- I sued them once when I was attorney general, and I’m not afraid to end anti-trust exemptions,” Lieberman said. “I am really worried about what this could do to the deficit.” That's interesting, because President Obama said he wants any healthcare bill to be deficit neutral, and the CBO determined that the Finance Committee's bill is just that.
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold hearings this week on the Senate climate change/energy bill.
There's something about Alaska... "In preparation for his sentencing in an Alaska bribery scheme, former oil executive Bill Allen released a tantalizing tidbit about the long-running legal allegations swirling around Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska): Allen told the Justice Department in 2007 that he had provided Young with more than $100,000 worth of gifts that the Congressman never reported. It was the first official mention of Young in connection with the Alaska corruption probe that has led to indictments against several public officials, including former Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska)."
MASSACHUSETTS: "Tonight, [Martha] Coakley faces a major test as she squares off against her three Democratic opponents in the first televised debate of the campaign, a potentially game-changing event that will give all the candidates broad statewide media exposure for the first time," The Boston Globe reports. "Each of Coakley’s competitors has his first major chance to make a dent. 'It’s Coakley’s to lose,' said John Berg, chairman of the government studies department at Suffolk University. 'She is running like a front-runner, and she wants to maintain that.'"
NEW JERSEY: On Saturday, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell and Newark Mayor Cory Booker stumped for Jon Corzine in Asbury Park, NJ. Like Corzine, Rendell’s approval ratings are low, in his case 39%. PolitickerNJ writes that he “consequently sympathizes with Corzine. ‘I think Jon Corzine was saddled with several decades of missteps,’ said the Pennsylvania governor. "But understand, what New Jersey has is a highly skilled and educated work force. Jon Corzine understands that, unlike his opponent.” Booker warned against the effect of a Corzine loss on the national scale: "If Jon Corzine doesn't win, a victory by Republicans in New Jersey will embolden the president's enemies," Booker said.
Corzine received the endorsements of the Trenton Times and Bergen Record, while opponent Chris Christie received the backing of The Press of Atlantic City, the Asbury Park Press and the Cherry Hill Courier-Post. Corzine’s endorsement from the Trenton Times was mixed; though it praised his “keen mind, financial expertise,” and “grasp of the state’s problems,” it added that his “charisma deficiency, his unapologetic use of his personal fortune to advance his political ambitions, and the collapse of his well-intentioned but flawed plan to raise highway tolls” have kept him neck-and-neck with Christie.
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Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., discuss the looming elections in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the 2010 congressional races .NEW YORK: "Newly released campaign records show the mayor [Bloomberg], as of Friday, had spent $85 million on his latest re-election campaign, and is on pace to spend between $110 million and $140 million before the election on Nov. 3.That means Mr. Bloomberg, in his three bids for mayor, will have easily burned through more than $250 million -- the equivalent of what Warner Brothers spent on the latest Harry Potter movie," The New York Times reports. The sum easily surpasses what other titans of business have spent to seek state or federal office. New Jersey's Jon S. Corzine has plunked down a total of $130 million in two races for governor and one for United States Senate. Steve Forbes poured $114 million into his two bids for president. And Ross Perot spent $65 million in his quest for the White House in 1992 and $10 million four years later."
CONTINUED >>
THE WEEK AHEAD: Obama in Florida with Pelosi raising $$, then VA for Deeds ... Movement on health care, Iran? ... HRC's birthday ... And a new addition to the family!
Do you have a question on politics -- presidential, horse race, something in Congress or something in your state? Submit it in the comments section, and we might pick yours in an upcoming week.
Tune in next week for a preview of Decision 2009 -- the races in Virginia, New Jersey and the special election in NY-23.
From NBC's Athena Jones Michelle Obama entered the contentious fray over health care, urging breast cancer survivors and their advocates not to lose heart in what may seem like an uphill battle to get legislation through Congress.
She made the remarks at an event she hosted with Dr. Jill Biden to mark Breast Cancer Awareness Month. The pair were joined on stage by three breast cancer survivors struggling to pay for health coverage, because their cancer, though in remission, was deemed a pre-existing condition.
The first lady said that while progress had been made battling the disease, the fight would not be finished until the health care system was revamped. She cited a Department of Health and Human Services report that showed that even breast cancer patients with employer-sponsored insurance paid an average of more than $6,200 in out-of-pocket costs per year and some paid as much as $30,000 or more, while those without insurance struggle to pay for care. She said caps on coverage hurt cancer patients and that other women suffered because they could not pay for needed screenings.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama's fundraiser for Sen. Chris Dodd (D) later today, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is calling on Obama and Dodd to release the list of donors who will be attending the fundraising event.
"As you know, Obama made two key promises as a candidate -- transparency and that he wouldn’t take lobbyist money or attend a fundraiser where lobbyists were donating money," NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh emails First Read. "So seems to us that they shouldn’t have any objection to releasing the names of those attending today’s fundraiser to make clear he is abiding by those pledges."
When we asked Walsh if Obama and Dodd oblige, would the NRSC begin releasing their own lists, as well as ban lobbyist money like Obama does, he replied: "We’ve made no such pledge/promise on the lobbyist money front, and neither has the DSCC for that matter. In contrast, Obama has said repeatedly that not only would he not accept lobbyist money but that he wouldn’t attend fundraisers where lobbyists were giving money."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Well, former New Hampshire GOP Rep. Charlie Bass , who lost his congressional seat in 2006, has written an essay for the fall edition of the Ripon Forum , arguing how the Republican Party can bounce back in the Northeast. But his message is FAR different than what we're hearing from the Sarah Palins , Dick Armeys , Club for Growths, and Tea Partiers who have gotten involved in NY-23.
Bass writes:
Second, we need to emphasize those policies and positions that unite all Republicans – rather than focus on issues that divide us. It was Ronald Reagan who pointed out that someone who agrees with you on 80 percent of the issues is a friend, not an enemy. Unfortunately, instead of emphasizing those issues that unite us, the Republican Party of today has spent far too much time focused on divisive social issues...
Third, we need candidates who reflect the values of the people of their district and their state. Our party needs to recruit and promote candidates who understand their electorate and who will reflect their values...
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell Nancy Pelosi is denying today's Politico report that any decision has been made about the public option in the House bill.
"We continue to work with all the members of the caucus to build consensus," the spokesman says.
Sources close to the speaker say leadership did not tell progressives last night that the robust public option is off the table. The votes are still being counted.
They add that the House bill will have a public option. The only question, as Pelosi told NBC News yesterday, is how robust it will be. She said in the NBC interview that her criteria is, which public option will create the most savings.
Politico had reported that after a whip count at last night's caucus, Pelosi realized she didn't have the votes for the most sweeping public option.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg White House vs. Deeds : In an interview earlier this month, Creigh Deeds (D) blamed , in part, the Democrats’ national agenda as he trails Bob McDonnell (R) in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. “Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough,” he said. But now the White House is blaming Deeds. A senior administration official tells the Washington Post that Deeds made several mistakes in his campaign. "I understood in the beginning why there was some reluctance to run all around the state with Barack Obama," the official said. "You don't do that in Virginia. But when you consider the African American turnout that they need, and then when you consider as well they've got a huge problem with surge voters, younger voters, we were just a natural for them." Said another official: “Obama, Kaine and others had drawn a road map to victory in Virginia. Deeds chose another path." Ouch.
*** Why pile on Deeds -- now? But why are some folks at the White House trying to throw Deeds under the bus -- at least right now? For one thing, Obama is campaigning for Deeds on Tuesday (this reminds us of that New York Times story about the White House pressuring David Paterson to get out of his race right before Obama was set to make a stop in New York). Also, Obama is now appearing in a TV ad for Deeds. Finally, the C.W. was already beginning to settle -- without the White House’s help! -- that Deeds has no one to blame but himself for his campaign struggles. While McDonnell has effectively used national issues like the health-care debate, cap-and-trade, and even card check against Deeds, this month’s Washington Post poll -- which had the Republican leading the Democrat by nine points among likely voters (53%-44%) -- showed that Deeds isn’t facing a stiff political headwind in this race. If anything, it’s a very gentle breeze. In that Post poll, Obama’s approval rating in Virginia was 58% among registered voters and 53% among likely voters -- that 53% matching the percentage Obama won in Virginia last year. Perhaps more surprisingly, incumbent Gov. Tim Kaine, who also has become DNC chairman, had a 60% approval rating.
*** When you’re losing on the economy, you’re likely not going to win : Indeed, Deeds is losing this race on the issues. Per that Post poll, likely voters trusted McDonnell more on the economy (53%-39%), transportation (49%-37%), the budget (52%-36%). education (51%-40%), and even health care (44%-42%). The only subjects that Deeds outscored McDonnell were on women’s issues (47%-41%) and abortion (44%-42%) -- and that’s after all the scrutiny on McDonnell’s controversial 1989 thesis. So here’s our question: Why couldn’t have folks at the White House have waited until after Nov. 3 to throw Deeds under the bus? Today’s Washington Post story, plus the earlier New York Times one on Paterson, doesn’t look at all like the highly disciplined and discreet Team Obama we saw during the presidential campaign. Bottom line: There's no good for the White House to pile on Deeds; it seems like an unnecessary headache at this point. By the way, here’s a tiny reminder to the White House: The reason both Corzine in NJ and Owens in NY-23 are showing no fear in using the president is that both Democrats only need DEMOCRATS to win their respective races, as both feature three-way dynamics, which make base turnout critical. Deeds doesn't have that luxury.
*** The campaigner-in-chief : President Obama today continues to wear his campaign hat. Beginning at 2:00 pm ET, he hits two fundraising events in Boston for Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D). Then he heads to Connecticut, where he does a fundraiser for Sen. Chris Dodd (D) at 6:45 pm. Before those fundraisers, the president delivers a speech at 12:30 pm at MIT on energy and climate change. By the way, Republicans who are running against Dodd have some activities tied to Obama’s visit today. For starters, Linda McMahon (wife of WWE’s Vince McMahon) is airing a TV ad in Connecticut. And Tom Foley is holding a press avail at 2:30 pm. Interestingly, both Patrick and Dodd may find themselves in a similar situation to Corzine’s -- in need of the president simply to ratchet up Dem support. Patrick is facing a three-way race in 2010 (Dem-turned-indie plus a VERY solid Republican recruit), while Dodd is simply trying to get back disaffected Dems to his side.
*** Public option here we come -- or not : Here’s a twist… Just as Harry Reid, per the New York Times , is now pushing for a public option (with a state opt-out), Politico is reporting that Nancy Pelosi does NOT have 218 votes in the House for a robust public option. Given the pressure Reid has received from progressives on the public option, we can understand why he’s now trying to embrace the public option plan. But here’s what has folks scratching their heads: Why did Senate Democrats devote so much time to trying to win over Olympia Snowe (and possibly Susan Collins) if they were later going to opt for legislation that she couldn’t support? And here’s a final thing that has to be frustrating the White House: The public option is STILL the central debate in health care, when according to estimates, it would attract just about 12 million Americans (about the size of Pennsylvania)? and
*** Palin endorses Hoffman : Sarah Palin has stepped into the GOP civil war in NY-23 by endorsing conservative third-party candidate Doug Hoffman over the more moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava. On her Facebook page, Palin wrote, "[B]est of all, Doug Hoffman has not been anointed by any political machine. Doug Hoffman stands for the principles that all Republicans should share: smaller government, lower taxes, strong national defense, and a commitment to individual liberty. Political parties must stand for something. When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of 'blurring the lines' between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections. Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race." (Of course, Reagan also had that 11th Commandment: Thou shall not speak ill of another Republican.)
*** Can you spare some change? Here's a fun number… Since 2000, Jon Corzine and New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg have remarkably spent a combined $371.2 million on their campaigns. Bloomberg’s total: $243.6 million ($74 million in 2001, $84.6 million in 2005, and $85 million SO FAR in 2009, a record for a municipal election). Corzine: $127.6 million ($65 million in 2000 for U.S. Senate, $40 million in 2005 for governor, and $22.6 million so far on his reelection this year -- he had promised to spend $40 million to $50 million on this race). By the way, the country of Bloomborzine, funded just by these campaign expenditures, would have the 213th largest GDP in the world -- between Tonga and the island nation of Sao Tome and Principe. (Here’s another comparison: In his 2009 race, former T-Mobile exec Joe Mallahan, a Democrat, has spent a Seattle mayoral record of his own money for the campaign, $230,000.)
*** Mrs. Popular : In our final look at women and politics as part of this week’s NBC/MSNBC focus on women, First Read takes a look at First Lady Michelle Obama, who appears on Jay Leno’s show tonight. The first lady has become a political asset for the White House, but that wasn’t always the case. In Sept. 2008, in the thick of the general election, her fav/unfav in our NBC/WSJ poll was a pedestrian 40%-31%. But when we surveyed her again this April, it had grown to an impressive 64%-11%. In fact, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll , she’s now more popular than her husband is: his fav/unfav in the poll is 55%-42%; hers is 61%-25%.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 11 days
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"The president's politicking on Friday begins in Cambridge, Mass., with a quick 'official' event at MIT to challenge the nation to lead the global economy in clean energy," the AP's Elliott writes. "That appearance significantly brings down the cost of flying the president to fundraisers designed to raise money for two politically anemic Democrats, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut." Obama's expected to bring in $1 million for Dodd. responded to Dick Cheney's charges of "dithering" on Afghanistan. Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs called Cheney's shot "curious" since "the vice president was for seven years not focused on Afghanistan. "Even more curious," Gibbs went on, "given the fact that an increase in troops [for Afghanistan] sat on desks in this White House, including the vice president's, for more than eight months."
"The Senate has long been seen as opposed to the federal government selling health insurance in competition with private industry, but now senior Senate Democrats and White House officials are strongly considering including such a measure in health care overhaul legislation, officials say," the AP says. "The provision would permit individual states to drop out of the system, a design that could make it more palatable to moderates who have opposed the "public option." Politico : “Speaker Nancy Pelosi counted votes Thursday night and determined she could not pass a ‘robust public option’ — the most aggressive of the three forms of a public option House Democrats have been considering as part of a national overhaul of health care. Pelosi's decision—coupled with a significant turn of events yesterday during a private White House meeting—points to an increasingly likely compromise for a trigger option for a government plan.”
"Rep. Paul Hodes (N.H.), who is in his second House term, and freshman Rep. Mike Quigley (Ill.) called on the House Oversight and Government Reform panel to initiate an investigation into Countrywide Financial’s 'Friends of Angelo' VIP program and whether it was used to gain influence over federal officials. They made their case for the investigation in a letter to Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.), the panel’s chairman, and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), the ranking member."
FLORIDA: "Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) on Wednesday abruptly withdrew his support from a controversial trade bill and legislation to create a single-payer health insurance system. The decision to remove himself as co-sponsor of the two bills suggests that Meek is moving to the political center."
ILLINOIS : An endorsement from Da Coach : Mike Ditka endorsed the more conservative developer Pat Hughes over Mark Kirk for the Republican nomination in the Senate race.
MASSACHUSETTS : Attorney General Martha Coakley may come across as a polished candidate and tough-on-crime prosecutor, but the Boston Globe reports on a less stellar part of her career, one she doesn't mention on her Senate candidate biography -- having a tough time arguing before the Supreme Court on behalf of the state. It was an unusual move for a state Attorney General to argue the case herself, and she lost the case. NEVADA : "Attorney General Eric Holder was the ninth Cabinet member to visit Nevada during the past six months," the AP notes. "Holder and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., toured facilities on Saturday designed to help law enforcement officers respond to security threats. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have also attended fundraisers in Nevada for Reid. White House officials say the trips helped Obama's top aides fulfill their particular job responsibilities. Republicans say all the attention shows the administration is leaving little to chance when it comes to helping Reid win a fifth term in office."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Bobby Cervantes
In a 68-29 vote, the Senate voted to approve the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act, which would lend federal assistance to states and localities that are unwilling or unable to investigate and prosecute crimes motivated by sexual orientation and gender identity.
The bill, which the House approved earlier this month, now makes its way to President Obama ’s desk.
The president has routinely pledged to sign the bill, most recently at his keynote address to the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest gay rights group.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Nancy Pelosi repeated that the House health-care legislation WILL have a public option in it -- although it won't be called "Medicare for Everyone."
She also countered former Vice President Cheney's recent statement that the Obama administration has been "dithering" on Afghanistan. "The fact is the American people very overwhelmingly approve of the president deliberating on this issue, because they know its consequences are very serious." Pelosi added, "Because the American people support the president's serious approach, I think the vice president decided that he would have the dissenting view."
Mitchell's full interview with Pelosi will air tomorrow on MSNBC beginning at 1:00 pm ET.
Andrea: Are you going to end up calling it "Medicare for Everyone"?
Pelosi: No, no I don't think so. But it isn't a question of what the bill is named. It's a question of what the bill will do.
Andrea: And it will have a public option?
Pelosi: It will have a public option. And we've always had the votes for the public option. It's just a question of what form it will take.
Pelosi: There are so many things that are so inappropriate about the Bush-Cheney administration and their aftermath... I don't think public receives this message very well. The fact is the American people very overwhelming approve of the president deliberating on this issue, because they know its consequences are very serious. Because the American people support the president's serious approach, I think the vice president decided that he would have the dissenting view.
From NBC's Ken Strickland Sen. Olympia Snowe and a bipartisan group of centrist senators is poised to stop the healthcare reform bill from even coming to the Senate floor if it contains the public option. Because 60 votes will likely be needed on a procedural vote that simply brings the bill to the floor, defections from Snowe and other centrist Democrats raise the stakes for Majority Leader Harry Reid .
Snowe and Democrat Ben Nelson have been meeting with a handful of centrist for the past couple of days. "We share similar positions on a number of issues and frankly, overall, is not to rush this train out of the station. I think that's the overriding issue."
(TV types stop reading here; wonks keep reading)
The statements by Snowe and Nelson today show that Senate procedure is just as important as party politics for getting things done in a chamber that runs on rules and 60 vote thresholds on controversial issues. To better understand the importance of their statements today, it important to understand part of the process.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly Paice President Obama today signed into law the Veterans Health Care Budget Reform and Transparency Act, guaranteeing advance funding for veterans' medical care. The premise of the law is to be sure the services provided by the Department of Veterans Affairs will not be disrupted by budget approval delays from Congress. Delays in passing the VA budget are nothing new -- this year was the 20th time in the last 23 years that Congress did not approve it by the beginning of the fiscal year. These delays can be especially disruptive to VA hospitals and clinics across the country.
In the East Room signing ceremony, Obama said, "This is common-sense reform. It promotes accountability at the VA; it ensures oversight by Congress; it is fiscally responsible by not adding a dime to the deficit; and it ensures that veterans' health care will no longer be held hostage to the annual budget battles in Washington."
The new law will provide funding one year in advance for veterans medical programs, so if Congress continues in its pattern of failing to approve the VA budget at its scheduled time, there will be no lapse in funding. Advance funding will take effect with the fiscal 2011 budget. In order to secure that money beforehand, however, the new law will require the VA to submit an estimate of its funding needs to the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office for review. That review will then be made public, hence the "transparency" of the law.
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Twenty-three states reported unemployment-rate increases in September, with three registering record job losses, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly employment summary.
Nevada (at 13.3%), Rhode Island (at 13.0%), and Florida (11.0%) all posted their HIGHEST unemployment rates since 1976, when the BLS began monitoring the rates.
Despite Nevada's record rate, the chief ecnomist in the state's Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation said the over-the-month increase was the smallest since March 2008. In Florida, however, economists predicted unemployment would not reach 11% until mid-2010, which means the rate could still increase further.
Michigan again had the highest unemployment rate in the country, at 15.3%, up a tenth of a percent from last month. New York lost the most jobs last month (81,700), followed by Texas (44,700), California (39,300), Wisconsin (21,700), and Michigan (21,500). CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg
From NBC's Luke Russert John Boehner today came out swinging against the Obama White House, saying it was guilty of "Chicago style politics."
"The White House and congressional Democrats know that their liberal special interest agenda is not very popular, and now they're following a familiar pattern: When you can't win an argument based on the facts, launch vicious political attacks. This 'Chicago style politics' -- shutting the American people out and demonizing their opponents -- they're writing the health-care bill in secret, even though the president called for it to be at an open table to have C-SPAN cameras in the room."
Boehner continued, "Instead, Democrats are targeting those who don't fall immediately in line -- the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, doctors, and FOX News. The administration promised during the campaign that they were going to usher in a new era of post-partisanship, but what they are doing is really flat out despicable."
And: "If you look at these attacks on people who question the administration, you begin to wonder what the real plan is. And it really does to me look like Chicago-style politics. Like they are trying to demonize their opponents and do everything they can to make them distasteful." (Cue the pot-calling-the-kettle-black countercharge.)
Boehner also criticized the Obama administration on Afghanistan. "Finally, another week has passed without a decision from the president in regard to Afghanistan -- another week that our commander on the ground, Gen. McChrystal , says is critical to our efforts. The Obama administration needs to stop dragging its feet and give our men and women overseas what they need to win the fight and keep Americans safe." (Cue the White House response that the previous administration and GOP-controlled Congress failed to bolster the U.S. effort in Afghanistan.)
From NBC's Mark Murray
*** The glass ceiling : The final barrier for female U.S. politicians is now the presidency. It's not just the fact that there has not been a woman president yet; it's the fact that there have been so few women presidential CANDIDATES. Not only did it take the two major parties 24 years to see a woman make it on a national ticket (1984 to 2008), it's still not obvious any women will be serious candidates in 2012 or 2016. Sure, there's lots of speculation surrounding Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton. But after them? (There was a dearth of women candidates for president between '84 and '08 as well, with Elizabeth Dole being the only serious candidate and she didn't make it to Iowa). One of the main reasons why we’ve had so few female presidential possibilities is because not enough women have become governors, which still remains the best stepping stone to the presidency. But this could change after 2010. If Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) wins the Texas governor’s race, if Alex Sink (D) wins in Florida, and if Meg Whitman (R) wins in California, that could elevate both into the discussion for 2012 and beyond… And don’t miss the “Meet the Press” discussion of Maria Shriver’s report on "A Woman's Nation."
*** Where things stand : According to Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics , there are six female governors (Jan Brewer of AZ, Jodi Rell of CT, Linda Lingle of HI, Jennifer Granholm of MI, Bev Perdue of NC, and Chris Gregoire of WA), 17 women U.S. senators (Lisa Murkowski of AK, Blanche Lincoln of AR, Barbara Boxer of CA, Dianne Feinstein of CA, Mary Landrieu of LA, Susan Collins of ME, Olympia Snowe of ME, Barbara Mikulski of MD, Debbie Stabenow of MI, Amy Klobuchar of MN, Claire McCaskill of MO, Kay Hagan of NC, Jeanne Shaheen of NH, Kirsten Gillibrand of NY, Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX, Patty Murray of WA, and Maria Cantwell of WA), and there are 73 congresswoman.
*** The GOP’s gender gap : In last year’s presidential election, Obama won female voters by 13 percentage points (56%-43%), while he won the male vote by just one point (49%-48%). This year’s Virginia race, which the Republican Bob McDonnell is leading, has emphasized women’s issues. Democrat Creigh Deeds seized on a graduate thesis McDonnell wrote when he was 34 years old, in which the Republican, among other things, said that feminism and working women were “detrimental” to the American family. McDonnell has responded by pointing to his working daughters, including one who had served in Iraq. The Deeds campaign has hoped that the thesis story would hurt McDonnell among Virginia females, who make up about 54% of the state’s electorate. So far, though, the gambit hasn’t worked…
*** What women want: According to last month’s NBC/WSJ poll, both men and women rank the economy as their top concern (56% of men and 55% of women had it as their No. 1 or No. 2 issue). But then there’s a fascinating disparity: 46% of women rank health care as one of their top-two concerns, versus 34% of men who think that -- a 12-point difference. On the other hand, a combined 39% of men rank the deficit and spending as a top-two concern, versus 29% of women who do -- a 10-point difference. So women care more about health care than men do, while men are more concerned about the deficit and spending. What’s more, women overall support Obama’s health-care plans more than men do. Per last month’s poll, women support Obama’s plan by a 40%-38% margin. By comparison, men oppose it by a 44%-38% clip. So here’s your battle of the sexes: Women are more inclined to be health-care voters, while men are deficit/spending voters.
*** The women of 2010 : We've mentioned the three women running for governor -- Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) of Texas, Alex Sink (D) of Florida, and Meg Whitman (R) of California -- who, if they win, could be presidential or vice-presidential possibilities in 2012 and 2016. But here are some other names to watch: Kelly Ayotte (running for the open Senate seat in New Hampshire), Robin Carnahan (running for the open Senate seat in Missouri), Jane Norton (running for Senate in Colorado), Sue Lowden (running to challenge Harry Reid in Nevada), and Mary Fallin (running for governor of Oklahoma). With the exception of Carnahan, all of these women will most likely face primaries next year. But if they win, they’ll all become familiar names to political junkies next fall. And for the GOP, who have their best lineup of women running for Senate than they've had in years (perhaps ever), it's a BIG chance for them to diversify their image.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg McDonnell vs. the GOP : With Bob McDonnell (R) comfortably leading Virginia’s gubernatorial race, according to the polls, some national Republicans are eagerly anticipating the outcome -- even arguing that a GOP win could sidetrack health-care reform, because Republicans will have won a key battleground state (maybe by a wide margin) that Obama carried last fall. But if you carefully look at the ads McDonnell is airing in Virginia, they really don’t gibe with message we’re hearing from many Republicans. One McDonnell ad features Democrat Sheila Johnson, who calls McDonnell a “bipartisan leader who gets results.” Another ad touts the Republican’s desire to boost transportation and infrastructure spending (something we really didn’t hear from the GOP the stimulus debate). And another ad has McDonnell talking to the camera, saying that 90% of his measures in the Virginia legislature “passed with strong bipartisan support.”
*** The middle or the base? So while it’s true that McDonnell has whacked Creigh Deeds (D) on health care, cap-and-trade, and card check, much of McDonnell’s success so far has come by tacking to the middle -- which is standard fare for campaigns normally, and yet not all that consistent with what we’re hearing from many Republicans nationally. Of course, the big issue Republican strategists are excited about regarding this race is the issue of taxes and spending. They think it's the one TRUE trend taking place in Virginia that can be extrapolated nationally. But here's the big caveat on McDonnell: He didn't have a primary, so he had the luxury of being able to straddle the middle and the base, which brings us to...
*** Collins/Gingrich vs. Club for Growth/Dick Armey : A conservative Republican emails First Read that Dick Armey is heading up to New York-23 today to endorse conservative third-party candidate Doug Hoffman over the more moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava, who has been backed the Susan Collinses of the world but also by Newt Gingrich. “Tea partiers from all over the country going to help GOP leadership and Gingrich feeling the heat,” this conservative Republican says. As we have pointed out before, the Scozzafava-Hoffman split could very well result in the Democrat, Bill Owens, winning this race, which would be the first time a Democrat has controlled this congressional seat since the 19th century (!!!). This is NOT the extrapolation the Republicans want to see in 2010, but this fight in NY-23 is a good preview of what we may see in GOP primaries all over the country in 2010.
*** Pound of (greenback) flesh : Leaving the 2009 horse races, there seems to be bipartisan agreement in the Obama administration’s decision to radically cut the pay of executives at the firms who received the most (and still have the most) bailout funds. This was all about optics, as last week's Dow 10,000 seemed to jump start the "is Wall Street recovering at the expense of Main Street?" narrative. So the admin is getting their pound of flesh. Of course, in practical terms, what will this pay cut do? Will it change the behavior at Wall Street firms who no longer have government bailout money? Unlikely. Will it feed the narrative of government intervention? Maybe (but notice most Republicans aren't eager to defend the bankers right now). Will it bring attention to all of the TARP money that has NOT been paid back? Most definitely, and that's something that always seems to anger the public.
*** What’s up, docs? The other big political news -- as it relates to the health-care debate -- was yesterday’s defeat in the Senate of a $247 billion measure that would have imposed a freeze in cuts in Medicare payments to doctors. Per The Hill , “The setback immediately raised questions among fellow Democrats over [Senate Majority Leader] Reid’s handling of healthcare reform strategy and gave Republicans an opening." As it turns out, 13 Dems joined the Republicans to vote against this effort. The 13 Dems come from the predictable red/purple states or the moderate/conservative wing of the party, including: Sens. Byron Dorgan (ND), Robert Byrd (WV), Kent Conrad (ND), Joe Lieberman (ID-CT.), Jon Tester (MT), Jim Webb (VA), Mark Warner (VA), Ron Wyden (OR), Herb Kohl (WI), Russ Feingold (WI), Bill Nelson (FL), Evan Bayh (IN), and Claire McCaskill (MO). It's just another example of how difficult it is for the Democrats to find 60 votes, let alone 50, when it comes to anything regarding fiscal issues these days. By the way, some are wondering why Reid brought this bill to the floor if he did KNOW he had the votes? Was this done on purpose to signal House Dems of his issues? Was he trying to send a message? There may be more to this decision by Reid than folks realize. And quick question about the eventual health care conference committee fight: Will some Dems (particularly in the House) demand to know IN ADVANCE who is on the conference committee before committing to vote?
*** The great American health-care fight : Staying with health care, Senate Minority Leader McConnell’s office brings to our attention a new Gallup poll , which finds that “Americans have become more likely to say the costs their family pays for healthcare will get worse if a healthcare bill passes.” As McConnell’s office points out, this contradicts Obama’s stated health-care goal about reducing costs.
*** Congressional lock out : We clipped this story yesterday, but it bears repeating and it's getting a lot of follow-up today in the other insider publications: "Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.) locked Republicans out of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee room to keep them from meeting when Democrats aren’t present.” This kind of story only feeds the narrative how ridiculous Congress looks to the rest of the country. Remember, Towns only got control of this committee when Henry Waxman gave up this gavel to take over the Commerce Committee. And some Dems are wondering, quietly, whether Towns has control of this committee, a la Waxman. It doesn’t appear so. Incidents like this should bring more attention to the very dysfunctional way Congress operates -- no matter which party is in charge. This committee/subcommittee system coupled with seniority, etc. has helped create a branch of government that is less trusted than any other branch, and it's not even close.
*** A pox on both houses, Part 2 : Yesterday , we noted GOP pollster Glen Bolger’s analysis of a Democracy Corps (D) poll, which showed (in part) that Democratic issue-perception problems were growing while the Republicans’ were fading. Per Bolger, it was evidence that this is no longer becoming a “pox on both houses” political environment. The Democracy Corps folks, however, disagree . While they don’t quibble that Democrats will probably lose House seats, especially in the South and in districts that McCain carried in 2008, they point out that the Republican Party’s fav/unfav remains near all-time lows. “Put simply, the Republican Party is as unpopular as they have ever been and the internal dynamics of their party will only serve to reinforce this unpopularity with the middle of the electorate.” Speaking of the "pox on both houses" rhetoric, don't miss the latest NJ GOV poll showing Daggett hitting 20% for the first time in ANY poll. Smart strategists have been telling us that any result in NJ that includes Daggett nabbing 20% is a message to BOTH parties -- particularly since it's so hard to even FIND Daggett on the ballot. It will mean voters were motivated to send a message to BOTH parties: clean up your act!
*** The women of 2010 : As part of the NBC/MSNBC focus this week on women, First Read takes a look today at some of the female candidates to watch in next year’s midterms. On Monday, we mentioned three women running for governor -- Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) of Texas, Alex Sink (D) of Florida, and Meg Whitman (R) of California -- who, if they win, could be presidential or vice-presidential possibilities in 2012 and 2016. But here are some other names to watch: Kelly Ayotte (running for the open Senate seat in New Hampshire), Robin Carnahan (running for the open Senate seat in Missouri), Jane Norton (running for Senate in Colorado), Sue Lowden (running to challenge Harry Reid in Nevada), and Mary Fallin (running for governor of Oklahoma). With the exception of Carnahan, all of these women will most likely face primaries next year. But if they win, they’ll all become familiar names to political junkies next fall. And for the GOP, who have their best lineup of women running for Senate than they've had in years (perhaps ever), it's a BIG chance for them to diversify their image.
*** Also as part of our focus on women : NBC’s Andrea Mitchell sits down to interview House Speaker Nancy Pelosi today; the full interview will air tomorrow.
*** Obama’s day : At 2:15 pm ET from the White House, the president signs into law the Veterans Health Care Budget Reform and Transparency Act. Per the White House, this fulfills a promise Obama made on the campaign trail. The law “will make the money for Veterans Affairs dependable by taking that portion of money out of the Beltway budget battle and allow the agency actually to plan. This aims to protect veterans’ medical programs from interruptions in funding when Congress is late passing a budget bill - as it has been for 20 of the last 23 years.” Also today, the president meets with U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry (at 10:00 am), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (at 12:30 pm), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (at 3:15 pm), and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (at 3:45 pm).
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 12 days
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President Obama campaigned for Democratic nominee Jon Corzine yesterday “to excite the moribund Democratic base” as the tight race between Corzine and Republican Chris Christie in New Jersey heads into the home stretch. The president related the problems of the state to those of the rest of the country, seemingly to empathize with voters and to explain that the state’s high property tax and other economic woes are not all products of Jon Corzine being governor. "To listen to his opponent, you'd think New Jersey was the only state in America facing layoffs," Obama said. "It's not just Teaneck that's been going through tough times. It's not just New Jersey that's been going tough times. This whole country has been going through hard times." New York Daily News : “The President's acknowledgment of hard times -- in a state with the highest property taxes in the nation and the worst unemployment in the Northeast -- was quickly seized upon by Corzine's Republican opponent, Chris Christie. 'The president is right, these are awful times in New Jersey,' the former U.S. Attorney told CNN. 'I just think Jon Corzine is not the solution.'" The Hill writes. "Months after some Democrats on and off Capitol Hill were suggesting that healthcare reform could attract 70 to 80 votes in the Senate, Obama and congressional leaders are focused on uniting their party and picking up, at most, a couple GOP defectors to help clear the 60-vote hurdle in the upper chamber. Obama’s recent plea for Democratic cohesion is reminiscent of his post-primary speech, in which he and vanquished rival Hillary Rodham Clinton stood together in Unity, N.H., in July 2008." The administration apparently believes "a bill could be ready in the Senate by Friday or Monday."
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"Sensing that Democrats have regained momentum on healthcare reform, Republicans are taking steps to re-energize critics who loudly voiced their opposition this summer,"
The Hill writes, adding, "With floor votes looming, Republicans on both sides of the Capitol are criticizing what they call tax increases in the pending healthcare bills." And they're criticizing polling shown favoring a public option.
Bernard Kerik
apparently lobbied for a pardon from former President George W. Bush.
More Palin news : "When the failed vice presidential candidate's memoir hits shelves Nov. 17, it will have some competition from a lookalike tome that spoofs the title of her book. 'Going Rouge: An American Nightmare' bears a striking resemblance to Palin's book, 'Going Rogue: An American Life.' Both feature the photogenic politician in red, but the spoof has her against a backdrop of black thunder clouds and lightning, instead of the image of a blue sky scattered with clouds on the ex-governor’s book." The spoof is created by the editors of the liberal magazine The Nation.
A "$247 billion bill, which would have imposed a 10-year freeze on cuts in Medicare payments to doctors, was an important part of Reid’s plan for passing the broader healthcare reform bill later this year," The Hill reports. "But Reid couldn’t secure enough votes to bring the bill up for debate, with the procedural vote failing 47-53. The setback immediately raised questions among fellow Democrats over Reid’s handling of healthcare reform strategy and gave Republicans an opening." Roll Call "the final Senate health care bill would not be ready for floor consideration next week." Roll Call reports. Roll Call profiles Tom Harkin, who has filled the HELP chairmanship vacated by the late Ted Kennedy.
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NEW JERSEY: A Rutgers-Eagleton poll shows Jon Corzine now leading Christie, but still only with 39% of the vote. Christie takes in 36%, with independent Chris Daggett continuing to surge. Daggett now stands at 20%, the first poll to show him breaking 20%. The new director of the poll, David Redlawsk, writes in the group's press release: “While Jon Corzine has made up a lot of ground in all the polls since last summer, he has not done it by increasing his support. Instead, Chris Christie has lost support as some voters who are opposed to Corzine have become attracted to Chris Daggett. Even so, it is important to note that Corzine’s lead in this poll is within the margin of error and if the election were today, the winner would be the candidate who can best rally his troops. We don’t know now who that will be.”
Why can't Christie get over the hump? The Wall Street Journal writes that Christie’s two biggest problems are his own lack of specificity and the ascendancy of Daggett. “By design, Mr. Christie has been vague about his tax and economic plans for the state. Ducking details is a tried and true strategy for front-runners who don't want to reveal anything specific enough to criticize,” the Journal writes. But “asked to name the most important issue in the race, 54% of likely voters cite property taxes, the most popular response by far. Team Christie's decision to put strategy above substance not only ignores this voter sentiment but also has given an opening to independent candidate Chris Daggett, whose economic reform proposals have been as specific as Mr. Christie's have been vague.”
NEW YORK (NY-23): Family Research Council fellow and member of the Club for Growth board of directors Ken Blackwell blames the “local GOP establishment” for deciding to appoint pro-choice Republican Dede Scozzafava “behind closed doors, in a formerly smoke-filled room” and bemoans the Republican grassroots’ lack of say in the choice. Of the third-party Conservative candidate, Doug Hoffman, Blackwell writes, “Hoffman is a true Reagan conservative. He accepted the Conservative Party’s nomination because he was denied the chance to make his case to the party’s grass-roots voters. If elected, he would caucus with the Republicans. He’d provide unquestionably stronger support for genuine GOP principles than Scozzafava -- based on her own liberal record -- would provide.” Glenn Beck radio show yesterday, citing his breaking with the Republican national party and making an oft-heard comparison: “The GOP leaders are upset with me, but the Republicans around the district are thanking me for stepping up to the plate and giving them a choice in this election of a real common sense conservative Reagan Republican.” Hoffman will appear on Beck’s television show tonight.
From NBC's Kelly Paice
Tomorrow's rally will highlight seven families' stories of being denied care by insurance companies. In response to the study AHIP released last week criticizing health-care reform, Kirsch said that the anger of the American people was "like a dam breaking," and that AHIP had "hit the panic button" at that point when they put out "this bogus report."
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From NBC's Pete Williams Cliff Hansen , the oldest living former U.S. senator, who died today at age 97, served his last of two terms in a suite of rooms in Washington's Dirksen Senate Office building. His desk was at one end, and his most junior staff member worked at the other.
Every evening when he was in town, Hansen would turn out his own light and walk through the string of offices, saying goodnight to members of his staff. When he got to the desk of that junior staffer, he'd ask, "May I borrow your phone?"
"Senator," the staffer would say, "this is your phone. Of course you can use it."
Hansen would pick up the receiver, dial a number and say, "Honey, I'm on my way home." And with that, he would be off to his apartment and his devoted wife, Martha.
I know these details, because I was that junior staffer.
CONTINUED >>
Got a politics question? Ask NBC Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd, who will be participating in a live chat at 3:45 p.m.
Click here for the chat.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro $19 you can send the entire office to get motivated on Monday by the likes of former President George W. Bush , Colin Powell , Rudy Giuliani , Terry Bradshaw, a top saleswoman and other "motivational speakers" at the Ft. Worth Business Seminar.
Ah, life out of politics.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama talked about his family and the role of women in society -- as part of NBC's focus on women this week.
The rest of the interview will appear on Nightly News tonight.
Now, you know, what I tried to do was to learn to be thoughtful enough -- and introspective enough -- that I wasn't always having to be told that things were unfair (laughs). And then once in awhile, I'd actually voluntarily say, "You know what? Let me relieve this burden on you. Let me make some sacrifices, in terms of how I'm using my time." But, you know, there's no doubt that our family, like a lot of families out there were ones in which the men are still a little obtuse about this stuff.
GUTHRIE: How are you obtuse?
OBAMA: Need to be, need to be knocked across the head every once in awhile, in terms of, you know, making sure that everybody is-- is-- is treated fairly.
GUTHRIE: Do you feel like you had to come to that recognition?
OBAMA: Absolutely. And, look, the truth is that Michelle still had to make sacrifices of the sort that I did not have to make.
Video :
President Obama admits that most men are still "a little obtuse" about the burdens that befall working mothers.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama suggested that the Afghanistan government's legitimacy and partnership with the U.S. will impact the administration's overall strategy for the country. He also said his administration will "take the time to get this right" when it comes to whether or not to send more troops to Afghanistan, but that it also will not "drag" out a decision.
When Guthrie asked whether the president could envision announcing a strategy before the Nov. 7 run-off in Afghanistan, Obama answered: "I think it is entirely possibly that we have a strategy formulated before a runoff is determined. We may not announce it."
President Karzai took yesterday, agreeing to the certification of a second round was positive. What we've said is that it is important to make sure that we understand the landscape and the partner that we're gonna be dealing with.
Because our strategy in Afghanistan is not just dependent on military forces. It's also dependent on how well we're doing with our civilian development efforts, how well we're doing in stemming corruption. So this is part of a comprehensive strategy; it always has been. And our basic attitude is that we are going to take the time to get this right. We're not gonna drag it out, because there is a sense that the sooner we get a sound approach in place and personnel in place, the better off we're gonna be.
But we also want to make sure that we don't put resources ahead of strategy.
GUTHRIE: Could you envision, however, announcing a strategy before the runoff is determined?
OBAMA: I think it is entirely possibly that we have a strategy formulated before a runoff is determined. We may not announce it.
From NBC's Luke Russert Nancy Pelosi today said that the House would pass health-care reform by Thanksgiving,
"We're on schedule, and we're pleased from our standpoint that we will have a bill passed well before Thanksgiving -- and hopefully in time for it to be signed with the work done with the Senate to be signed before Thanksgiving but certainly this year."
Pelosi seemed more optimistic this week than her colleague Majority Leader Steny Hoyer , who said last week, "Health care, we want to get that done, although I don't guarantee it, certainly we are going to get it done in the House. And I'm hopeful that during this next month and half we will be working with the Senate… Once they decide what they are going to do and what we are going to do, we'll talk about how we are going to resolve differences that we have."
Even the most dedicated Democrats will say privately that it is a long-shot for health-care reform to be passed through the House and Senate by Thanksgiving.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Creigh Deeds is going up with a TV ad featuring cuts of President Obama 's speech endorsing Deeds in his final push before the Nov. 3rd election.
Obama will campaign with Deeds on Tuesday.
Early in the campaign, Deeds, who is from rural Southwest Virginia, appeared uneasy wholly embracing the president. But, as he lags in the polls behind Republican Bob McDonnell by an average of five to 10 percentage points consistently, to have a chance his campaign must do all it can to try and run up the score in Northern Virginia and heavily African-American Hampton Roads -- both areas where Obama's popular.
The script to the ad, entitled, "Fired Up," are after the jump, as is the Deeds campaign's release:
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Jersey Boys: When President Obama last campaigned for Jon Corzine back in July, we wondered whether it would be his last visit given Corzine's low poll numbers and political woes. Well, he's coming back to New Jersey to attend a rally for the incumbent governor at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Hackensack at 6:05 pm ET. The low poll numbers and the political woes are still there for the incumbent governor. But due to Chris Christie's struggles (yesterday's story on Michele Brown was damning), independent Chris Daggett's surprising candidacy, and New Jersey's blue tint, political observers now realize that Corzine CAN win this thing. If Democrats do win in New Jersey, as well as in the special congressional election in NY-23, there will be two storylines to consider the day after: 1) third-party candidates -- Daggett in NJ and Doug Hoffman in NY-23 -- will have helped the Democrats and hurt the Republicans, and 2) that Republicans once again will have struck out in the Northeast. If Republicans lose NY-23, they will control just TWO of the state’s 29 congressional districts. Wow.
*** Aiding small businesses: Before Obama stumps in New Jersey, the president, at 1:50 pm ET, will announce a package of initiatives that will increase credit to small businesses, per NBC’s Athena Jones. The proposal will increase the caps for existing Small Business Administration loans and give smaller banks better access to TARP funding to encourage more lending to small business. The fact that TARP is being tapped as a small-biz-incentive tool to get credit flowing makes you wonder: "What took you so long to announce this?” Speaking of TARP, "Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general over the Troubled Asset Relief Program … criticized the Treasury Department for failing to require banks to detail exactly how they are using the money." And former Treasury official Neel Kashkari told CNBC's John Harwood this: “I do think Wall Street firms need to show more sensitivity. Every single Wall Street firm, despite their protest today, every single one benefited from our actions. Every single one. And they need to recognize that. And when they get up there and say, `Well, we didn't need it,' that's bull. They did need it. And they're all happy with the actions that we took, and they need to show restraint today.”
***
Kerry steps up: Take a look at some of John Kerry recent accomplishments: saves climate bill, becomes the administration’s go-to guy on Karzai in Afghanistan. It took him nearly four years to find his rhythm following his 2004 loss, but Kerry is a player again. On two different fronts, he has stepped up and become a game-saver for his party. On climate/energy, he took a bill that was languishing in the Senate and recruited Lindsey Graham to breathe new life into it. The bill still has a long way to go, but there's a path to passage and that's in no small part thanks to Kerry. On Karzai, there are a few tick-tocks about the role he played (one here in the
Wall Street Journal ), including how the Obama administration used him to, well, super-cede Holbrooke and others. As one Dem strategist commented to us today, "Kerry finally got to show what kind of president he could have been." But in classic Kerry fashion, no one in the media is in the dark about Kerry’s Afghanistan role.
*** A pox on both houses? Be sure to take a look at GOP pollster Glen Bolger’s analysis of a recent Democracy Corps (D) survey. Bolger argues that Democratic issue-perception problems are growing, while the GOP’s are fading. In fact, he makes the case against the "pox on both your houses" wisdom that some argue is out there. The Democracy Corps poll shows that it's going to be House Dems, particularly in the South but also in many swing or McCain districts, who will be the first Dems to pay the political price for the Obama administration.
*** What women want: As part of the NBC/MSNBC focus this week on women in the workplace and society, First Read takes a look today at the issues women care most about. According to last month’s NBC/WSJ poll, both men and women rank the economy as their top concern (56% of men and 55% of women had it as their No. 1 or No. 2 issue). But then there’s a fascinating disparity: 46% of women rank health care as one of their top-two concerns, versus 34% of men who think that -- a 12-point difference. On the other hand, a combined 39% of men rank the deficit and spending as a top-two concern, versus 29% of women who do -- a 10-point difference. So women care more about health care than men do, while men are more concerned about the deficit and spending. What’s more, women overall support Obama’s health-care plans more than men do. Per last month’s poll, women support Obama’s plan by a 40%-38% margin. By comparison, men oppose it by a 44%-38% clip. So here’s your battle of the sexes: Women are more inclined to be health-care voters, while men are deficit/spending voters.
:
Maria Shriver joins the Morning Joe gang to discuss the various questions - both personal and professional - facing young women entering the labor force. *** Guthrie interviews Obama: Also as part of the NBC/MSNBC focus on women this week, NBC’s Savannah Guthrie today interviews President Obama. (The president has put a lot of women in high places, but how does he truly make sure his administration reflects a woman's perspective?) In addition, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell will interview Sen. Olympia Snowe on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” which begins at 1:00 pm ET.
*** No. 50 for Mitch: On Capitol Hill today, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell will deliver what his office is billing as his 50th speech on health care since June 1. According to an aide, McConnell will talk about the need for reform and argue that Democratic proposals won’t do the job. McConnell today also pens an op-ed in USA Today arguing that every Republican supports health reform. “Health care costs are too high, and too many Americans lack health insurance. I have said so in just about every one of those 50 speeches and in dozens of interviews. And every other Senate Republican is on record favoring common-sense reforms for a system that needs them.” In other Cap Hill speeches today, brand-new Sen. George LeMieux (R), who succeeded Mel Martinez, delivers his maiden speech from the Senate floor around 10:15 am ET.
*** Other odds and ends: Beginning at 9:30 am ET, Homeland Security Secretary Napolitano and Education Secretary Duncan appear before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee to testify on the administration’s response to the H1N1 virus. By the way, NBC’s Athena Jones reports that Obama received his seasonal flu shot yesterday afternoon. The first lady and the girls had already received theirs. In other Washington events today, actress Nicole Kidman testifies over on the House side at 2:00 pm about international violence against women. And Drudge protégé Andrew Breitbart, as well as those conservative activists posing as a pimp and prostitute, hold a news conference at the National Press Club at 9:30 am.
*** 2009 watch: In Virginia’s gubernatorial race, Creigh Deeds (D) and Bob McDonnell sparred in their final debate last night, which the Washington Post says wasn’t a game-changer. “McDonnell accused Deeds of plotting a tax increase and backing controversial Democratic proposals in Washington. Deeds sought to convince voters that McDonnell, a former legislator and state attorney general, had undergone a dramatic election-year conversion from a conservative ideologue to a pragmatic moderate.” Also note Politico's observation that Bill Clinton got a bigger crowd stumping for Corzine yesterday than he did campaigning for Deeds.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 13 days
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According to a new Washington Post/ABC poll , 47% support sending more troops into Afghanistan, while 49% oppose it. “A day after Afghan President Hamid Karzai agreed to a runoff election -- following an investigation by an international panel that found pervasive irregularities in the first round of voting -- the poll showed that two-thirds of the U.S. public also considers the election deeply flawed, with evidence of widespread fraud. That negative appraisal was generally consistent across party and ideological lines.”
More: “As the administration's review continues, 57 percent of those polled approve of how Obama is carrying out his duties as commander in chief, but confidence in his leadership on the Afghan war has eroded since the spring. In previous polls, Obama received some of his highest ratings in relation to his dealings with Afghanistan, including 63 percent approval in April of his handling of the situation there. In the latest poll, 45 percent approve, down 10 percentage points in the past month alone, and 47 percent disapprove, an increase of 10 points. Nearly a third of those surveyed say they strongly disapprove.”
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Is support waining for the Afghan war? Newsweek's Jon Meacham and presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin join the Morning Joe gang to discuss the state of the conflict.
The Wall Street Journal looks at the role that John Kerry has played regarding Afghanistan. “U.S. and Western officials said the Obama administration latched on to Sen. Kerry as a key broker. In June, he played a similar role in the Obama administration's efforts to build bridges to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, according to Syrian and U.S. officials. Sen. Kerry was first drawn into the vote fraud crisis Friday when, at a dinner with U.S. troops from Massachusetts, Mr. Eikenberry pulled him aside and told him of fears Mr. Karzai would denounce findings by U.N.-led election investigators of widespread fraud.”
The Boston Globe adds, "Kerry’s successful talks, which ranged from broad issues of legitimacy to discussions of the statistical analysis used to disqualify ballots, appeared to be his most significant accomplishment since taking over the chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee this year, replacing Joe Biden.”
Out of Iraq? "President Obama vowed again Tuesday to withdraw all U.S. combat troops from Iraq next year, saying elections in 2010 will prop up the fledgling democracy. 'We will have our combat troops out of Iraq by August of next year and all of our troops out of Iraq by 2011,' Obama said at an Oval Office meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki."
"The campaigner-in-chief kicked off a political blitz on Tuesday, holding three fund-raisers in Manhattan and collecting roughly $3 million for the Democratic Party," The New York Daily News writes. "Obama gobbled up checks of $30,400 per couple, the federal maximum, for the Democratic National Committee at the Mandarin Oriental hotel -- and joked donors got off easy. 'You can't afford a fund-raiser involving [First Daughters] Malia and Sasha. I'm cheap,' quipped the Columbia grad, who insists he gets 'more requests' for his 11- and 8-year-old girls."
At one of the fundraisers, Obama “challenged Wall Street to embrace his proposed financial regulations," The Hill writes. "Obama criticized the 'reckless speculation and deceptive practices and short-sightedness and self-interestedness from a few.'"
:
The president calls for finance executives to help out with reform on Wall Street during a fundraising trip to New York City.
The Los Angeles Times profiles what it believes are the six key White House aides in the health-care debate -- Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, legislative affairs director Phil Schiliro, communications aide Dan Pfeiffer, OMB Director Peter Orszag, White House aide Jim Messina and health-care adviser Nancy-Ann DeParle.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post : ”House leaders have cut the cost of their health-care overhaul to around $871 billion over the next decade, Democratic sources said Tuesday night, and were working to line up votes for the package with the aim of bringing it before the full House early next month. The $871 billion estimate -- well under the $900 billion limit set by President Obama -- is the latest of several versions scored by congressional budget analysts, according to a Democratic aide, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private talks. The measure would include a government-run insurance plan that pays providers at rates tied to Medicare, the aide added.”
"Top Senate Democrats intend to try to strip the health insurance industry of its exemption from federal antitrust laws, according to congressional officials, the latest evidence of a deepening struggle over President Barack Obama's effort to overhaul the health care industry," the AP says. "If enacted, the switch would mean greater federal regulation for an industry that recently has stepped up its criticism of portions of a health care bill moving toward the Senate floor."
Per NBC’s Carroll Ann Mears, here’s Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid yesterday on health care: “We've had some very good meetings today. The one we started at 6:00 pm, we just wrapped it up with the two chairmen, the President's chief of staff, Nancy-Ann DeParle and staff in different areas of expertise has been extremely rewarding. We're not completely to the point where the two bills are put together but we're making a lot of progress.”
CONTINUED >>
"Sarah Palin is going to sit down with Oprah Winfrey,” the AP reports. “Harpo Productions announced Tuesday that the former governor of Alaska and Republican vice presidential candidate will appear on ‘The Oprah Winfrey Show’ on Monday, Nov. 16. According to Harpo, the interview will be Palin’s first about her new book, ‘Going Rogue: An American Life,’ and it will be the first time Palin and Winfrey will meet.”
"Some Republicans are worried that just opposing Democratic initiatives instead of offering alternatives will put the party in an untenable political position in the 2010 election," The Hill's Wilson writes. Check out this quote from Republican congressman Dana Rohrabacher, of California: “Unfortunately, I see a lot of Republicans simply involved in political games.” More: “The Republican leadership in the House right now is constantly trying to play a political game to get a headline, and I don’t think that is going to take us anywhere.”
:
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will join Oprah on November 16th to discuss her new book, "Going Rogue". Welcome to the
spin zone : "Republicans believe their war against President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul drive will be buttressed by two events mostly outside the president’s control: the election of a Republican governor of Virginia and the unavoidable necessity of raising the debt limit… And Republican Congressional sources talk as if they already have the Virginia gubernatorial contest locked up. They stand ready to use a GOP victory in a moderate state carried by Obama to spook moderate Democrats whose support for health care reform is not a sure bet." (And so New Jersey no longer matters, eh?)
CONTINUED >>
FLORIDA: A Quinnipiac poll shows Republican Marco Rubio cutting into what was a 29-point Charlie Crist lead in the GOP primary to just 15, 50%-35%. "The results resemble a reported Chamber of Commerce poll that had Crist up 44-30 and stirred talk of some unrest in the centrist governor’s camp," The Hill writes. "And it is good news for a Rubio campaign that has been trying to prove to potential donors and endorsers that it is for real."
NEW JERSEY: Former President Bill Clinton’s two appearances with Jon Corzine yesterday prompted the Philadelphia Inquirer to come to a similar conclusion about political heavyweights’ involvement in faltering campaigns: “With two weeks to go in the campaign, these celebrity endorsers aren't trying to change minds: They're aiming to inspire the Democratic faithful to work hard.” Introducing Clinton, Corzine said: "[Clinton] won in 1992, he won in 1996, and he's going to help somebody win in 2009.”
As Corzine received the support of “Democratic rock stars,” Christie opted for some more low-key appearances : “Christie was in Mercer County, where he held another kitchen-table event with voters to talk about taxes and assert that Corzine's policies have made things worse. Christie's camp also turned up pressure on Corzine to release information detailing his charitable donations from 2008, following the revelation that the multimillionaire governor gave $87,000 last year to the church of the Rev. Reginald Jackson, the influential head of the Black Ministers Council.”
Car troubles have been a constant refrain in the New Jersey race, but not quite like this: Independent Chris Daggett’s driver left a loaded gun in a car the nominee rented.
More on New York and Virginia after the jump...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg Darfur activist groups said they support
President Obama's plans to engage the Sudanese government by using both sanctions and incentives, but urged him not to offer rewards until President
Omar Hassan al-Bashir offers tangible evidence of cooperation in bringing peace to the war-torn Darfur region.
In a press release unveiling his Sudan policy yesterday, Obama said, "If the government of Sudan acts to improve the situation on the ground and to advance peace, there will be incentives. If it does not, then there will be increased pressure imposed by the United States and the international community."
The Save Darfur Coalition, a worldwide activist group, released a statement yesterday saying it "cautiously welcomed" the Obama administration's new strategy.
"Its success will depend on implementation backed by sustained presidential leadership," said
Jerry Fowler , Save Darfur's president, in the statement. "Incentives should not be provided before there is concrete and lasting progress on resolving Sudan's interlocking crises, opening political space for Sudanese to determine their future and protecting human rights."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ali Weinberg David Paterson's poll numbers remain near record low levels while former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's odds in potential gubernatorial match-ups improved in the past month, a Siena College research institute poll found.
Paterson's favorable/unfavoratble rating is 27 to 61 percent, down slightly from 29 to 59 percent last month. Only 15 percent are prepared to elect Paterson Governor, while 72 percent favor 'someone else,' the institute reported. In a primary matchup, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo would beat Paterson 70 to 20 perecnt, the poll found.
“By every measure, voters continue to keep Governor Paterson in the electoral cellar, and by every measure, Paterson‟s numbers are within a handful of points or less of his all time record lows,” said Siena New York pollster Steven Greenberg.
In a general election, Giuliani would win over Paterson 56 to 33 percent. Against Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, the former mayor leads 53 to 36 percent, widening an eight-point lead from last month. Giuliani now trails Cuomo by only seven points, versus 13 last month.
From NBC's Pete Williams Obama administration to stay on the sidelines, the U.S. Supreme Court today agreed to jump squarely into the legal battle over bringing Guantanamo detainees into the United States.
It's the first time the court has agreed to review an Obama policy in the war on terror.
The court said it will hear a constitutional challenge brought by 13 Chinese Muslims now held at Guantanamo Bay but no longer considered enemy combatants. They've asked, and the U.S. has agreed, that they not be sent back to China out of fear that they'd be tortured. But, so far, no other country has agreed to take them. Given all that, a federal judge ruled a year ago that because the government had no basis on which to detain them, and with no other country willing to take them, they should be released into the United States.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Winston Wilde Shaun Donovan today said he needs a fuller picture of the potential costs of Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-GA) first-time homebuyer's tax credit extension before the administration can get behind it.
"We understand the urgency, and in the next few weeks, we'll have data that will allow us to sit down with you and talk of an extension," Donovan said.
Isakson’s proposal would take an $8,000 credit for new homebuyers, set to expire at the end of November, and extend it through June 30, 2010. Isakson said that the Congressional Budget Office score is $16.7 billion if the tax credit is extended, and would enable the housing industry to make it through the winter (historically the three worst months of the year for home buying) and the spring (historically the three best months in the year).
Isakson, who testified along with Donovan before the Senate Banking Committee today, said that without approving the extension, America "will have a drastic and awful situation, worse than what we have now." Donovan didn't see quite so "catastrophic" a decline as a result of a failure to extend the tax credit.
From NBC's Mark Murray
So the RNC had the best month, and the DNC had the best quarter. In fact, the DNC says that this is the first quarter they've outraised the RNC since 2004. Of course, it helps having an incumbent president raising money for you, as he's doing tonight.
From NBC's Luke Russert Steny Hoyer expressed anger and frustration with Republican attacks that President Obama’s lack of a clear, concise policy regarding the war in Afghanistan is putting American troops at risk, “My Republicans colleagues, of course, abandoned their focus on Afghanistan for seven years and let it drift and did not resource it properly and did not succeed.”
Hoyer continued, “For the Republicans who essentially diverted the attention from defeating terrorism, to Iraq on the incorrect assertion that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, frankly don’t move me mightily, as you can tell.”
When pressed again on whether or not troops in Afghanistan can be safest if the commander-in-chief hasn’t outlined a comprehensive understandable strategy, Hoyer again shifted blame to Republicans and what Democrats widely consider their past history of failure in Iraq. “Let me reiterate: We were under-resourced in Iraq for at least five and half years. McCain said so. I said so. Hagel said so. Where were they? They were in charge. Where were they? They under resourced very badly Iraq.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Athena Jones President Obama tomorrow will visit a small business in Maryland, where he will announce a package of initiatives that will increase credit to small businesses.
The proposal will increase the caps for existing Small Business Administration loans and give smaller banks better access to TARP funding to encourage more lending to small business.
:
Jared Bernstein, chief economist and economic policy adviser to Vice President Biden discusses President Obama's plan to announce an increase in credit and lending to small businesses.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Hamid Karzai 's statement that he will accept a runoff after allegations of voter fraud in the contested Afghan election.
President Obama said he welcomed Karzai's decision and added that "this is an important step forward in ensuring a credible process for the Afghan people which results in a government that reflects their will." He also got in a nod to Karzai's main rival, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) echoed those sentiments, but he got in the following as well: "It is unrealistic to expect Afghan governance to improve significantly without improved security.That is why it is essential to implement the properly-resourced counterinsurgency strategy that General Stanley McChrystal and our senior commanders have called for, and that is why I continue to urge President Obama to provide our military and civilian leaders in Afghanistan with the resources they need as quickly as possible.”
:
Sen. Bob Casey, D- Pa., discusses whether the delay in the Afghanistan elections will affect the timing of President Obama's decision on troop deployments. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said over the weekend that the White House wouldn't make a decision on troop levels or a change in strategy until after the new election. The runoff is set to take place Nov. 7th.
Full statements after the jump...
*** UPDATE *** Sen. John Kerry 's full remarks at Karzai's decision. Kerry, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman, played a vital, behind-the-scenes role in Afghanistan in trying to get this decision.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg *** The optics problem : The Obama White House is in one of the periods many presidencies go through, when no matter what you do, it doesn't seem to play well. Fundraising is one of those issues right now. As we noted yesterday, the president is spending an inordinate amount of time this week campaigning and raising money. It's just two weeks before some crucial elections, so it's only natural he'd be spending time on the money/campaign circuit. But with so many policy balls in the air (health care, jobs and Afghanistan), none of it looks good. And last week, he went from touring New Orleans' Katrina areas to a glitzy San Francisco fundraiser. What’s more, the president today is raising money in the media's backyard -- New York City -- and he's drawing even more attention to the issue, especially since some Wall Street types are attending today’s dual fundraisers for Bill Owens (the Democrat running in NY-23) and for the DNC.
*** When the C.W. is wrong : Of course, there's another practical political problem that has gone under the radar: The Democratic Party is NOT raising money like it did two and four years ago, and the president -- because of the lobbyist restrictions he's put on fundraising for his appearances -- is not the big draw presidents usually are. Here’s the unintended consequence: The president has had to do MORE fundraisers than his predecessors and is still seeing his party get outraised in a number of places. This is a classic case of the C.W. having this one wrong: Barack Obama isn't the fundraising juggernaut as president he was as a candidate. Remember, he's not raising money for himself, and he's putting a lot of restrictions in place whenever his image is used as a draw. By the way, not only are Democrats struggling on the fundraising front, but one of their best sources of fundraising support is Wall Street. And as the New York Times points out today, Wall Street is no longer giving the party the cash it used to 1) because of the government’s bailout and 2) because it hasn’t been too happy about the reform measures moving through Congress.
*** Karzai; Gates vs. Rahm? Turning to Afghanistan, today’s news is that Karzai has conceded “that he fell short of a first-round victory in the nation’s disputed presidential election, and agreed to hold a run-off election with his top challenger on Nov. 7.” Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Gates seemed to offer a subtle contradiction to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel on the issue of whether a decision on troops and a new strategy could be made while the country was still in election turmoil. "We're not just going to sit on our hands, waiting for the outcome of this election and for the emergence of a government in Kabul," he said, per the AP. More: "The outcome of the elections and the problems with the elections have complicated the situation for us. But the reality is, it's not going to be complicated one day and simple the next," he said. "We're going to have to work with this going forward, and I believe the president will have to make his decisions in the context of that evolutionary process."
*** A game-changer? Wow, did the Washington Post pump up a very minor uptick when it comes to the public option. Last month in the Post/ABC poll, 55% supported the idea (in the way they worded it); this month, that number is 57%. But today’s headline (“Public option gains support”) is all public option advocates will need. Will the poll be a turning point in the Senate/White House merger negotiations as they wrestle with whether to include some form of a public option in the bill that's offered on the floor? To be fair, this is the fourth time when majorities in the Post/ABC poll have favored the public option. Perhaps that is what the paper was trying to point out...
*** Obama vs. the Chamber: A day after environmental activists staged a hoax -- pretending that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce was reversing course to support the climate-change legislation moving through Congress -- the Washington Post takes a look at the rift between the Chamber and the Obama White House, especially after the Chamber’s opposition to the health-care legislation and climate bills. “Instead of working through the Chamber, President Obama has reached out to business executives, meeting repeatedly with small groups of CEOs in his private White House dining room. He also has dispatched top aides Valerie Jarrett and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel to corporate boardrooms… Meanwhile, the Chamber is fighting back with its own public relations agenda, launching multimillion-dollar ad campaigns to resist several of Obama's top priorities.”
*** The GOP’s gender gap : As part of the NBC/MSNBC focus this week on women in the workplace and society, First Read takes a look today at the Republican Party’s struggles with female voters and whether the upcoming gubernatorial election in Virginia will be an improvement for the GOP. In last year’s presidential election, Obama won female voters by 13 percentage points (56%-43%), while he won the male vote by just one point (49%-48%). This year’s Virginia race, which the Republican Bob McDonnell is leading, has emphasized women’s issues. Democrat Creigh Deeds seized on a graduate thesis McDonnell wrote when he was 34 years old, in which the Republican, among other things, said that feminism and working women were “detrimental” to the American family. McDonnell has responded by pointing to his working daughters, including one who had served in Iraq. The Deeds campaign has hoped that the thesis story would hurt McDonnell among Virginia females, who make up about 54% of the state’s electorate. So far, though, the gambit hasn’t worked…
*** 2009 watch: Speaking of that Virginia race, it’s now exactly two weeks until Election Day 2009… Bill Clinton stumps for both Creigh Deeds (at 12:30 pm ET in Northern Virginia) and Jon Corzine (at 8:00 pm ET at Rutgers University)… Deeds and McDonnell square off tonight in Salem, VA for their final debate… The New York Times drops a potential bombshell on Chris Christie, alleging that the U.S. attorney colleague whom Christie had loaned $46,000 helped the Republican candidate in his bid for governor. For instance: "In March, when Gov. Jon S. Corzine’s campaign requested public records about Mr. Christie’s tenure as prosecutor, Ms. Brown interceded to oversee the responses to the inquiries, taking over for the staff member who normally oversaw Freedom of Information Act requests.” … This story comes as a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll finds Corzine and Christie tied among likely voters at 39% each; independent Chris Daggett is at 14%.
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“Under heavy international pressure, President Hamid Karzai conceded Tuesday that he fell short of a first-round victory in the nation’s disputed presidential election, and agreed to hold a run-off election with his top challenger on Nov. 7,” the New York Times reports. “Flanked at a news conference in Kabul by Senator John Kerry, the head of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Kai Eide, the top United Nations official in Afghanistan, Mr. Karzai said he would accepting the findings of an international audit that stripped him of nearly a third of his votes in the first round, leaving him below the 50 percent threshold that would have allowed him to avoid a runoff and declare victory over his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah.”
The Washington Post: “Karzai's acceptance of another round of voting, after weeks of resistance, should enable the Obama administration to proceed with a high-level review of its faltering Afghanistan war strategy, a process that has been hamstrung by the delay in determining who its Afghan government partner will be. The White House has been under increasing congressional and public pressure to make a decision on whether to send tens of thousands of more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, as requested by the top American commander there.”
Before his fundraising day in New York City, President Obama meets with Iraqi leader Nouri al-Maliki at the White House. is traveling to Central Europe to reassure leaders who are nervous that the Obama administration's courting of Russia means a reduced commitment to their security. Biden's trip Tuesday comes in the aftermath of the administration's decision to rework a missile defense plan devised by the Bush administration and opposed by Russia. Leaders in Poland and the Czech Republic, where the system was to have been based, had hoped it would offer a permanent U.S. presence and deterrence against potential Russian bullying."
According to a new Washington Post/ABC poll , 57% of respondents support a public option. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that support for a government-run health-care plan to compete with private insurers has rebounded from its summertime lows and wins clear majority support from the public. Americans remain sharply divided about the overall packages moving closer to votes in Congress and President Obama's leadership on the issue, reflecting the partisan battle that has raged for months over the administration's top legislative priority. But sizable majorities back two key and controversial provisions: both the so-called public option and a new mandate that would require all Americans to carry health insurance.”
Michelle Obama will be on the Jay Leno show on Friday .
Finally, remember that Hillary Clinton debt? Well, her campaign still owes slightly less than $1 million -- all of it owed to Mark Penn's polling firm.
"The White House and Democratic leaders are offering doctors a deal: They’ll freeze cuts in Medicare payments to doctors in exchange for doctors’ support of healthcare reform,"
The Hill reports. "At a meeting on Capitol Hill last week with nearly a dozen doctors groups, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said the Senate would take up separate legislation to halt scheduled Medicare cuts in doctor payments over the next 10 years. In return, Reid made it clear that he expected their support for the broader healthcare bill, according to four sources in the meeting."
More Rangel trouble : "Embattled House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) was the top recipient of bundled campaign contributions from lobbyists during the third fundraising quarter of this year, new reports show."
Only 34% of Californians
approve of Nancy Pelosi's job . That's rough, but it's higher than her national numbers.
John Boehner's
heading to New Hampshire for a Nov. 13th state party fundraiser.
Mitt Romney continued criticizing Obama on foreign policy -- this time to Israel lobby AIPAC yesterday. "In pursuit of a peace process, the United States today has exerted substantial pressure on Israel while putting almost no pressure on the Palestinians and the Arab world," Romney told the group at its summit in San Diego.
(Did Romney forget about Obama's Cairo speech?)
FLORIDA : Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) endorsed Marco Rubio.
MAINE : The Boston Globe previews the ballot initiative fight over gay marriage in Maine. "Just six months after Governor John Baldacci signed a law legalizing gay marriage in Maine, voters will decide whether to preserve it, making the state the latest battleground in the national fight over same-sex marriage. For both sides, the Nov. 3 ballot initiative, Question One, is seen as a crucial juncture. Opponents want to show that momentum has shifted to their side, building on last year’s California vote to approve a ban on gay marriage. Supporters - with victories in Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Iowa - are eager to demonstrate that California was a temporary setback… [T]he outcome for either side is far from assured." NEW JERSEY : The New York Times has this: "When news broke in August that the former United States attorney, Christopher J. Christie, had lent $46,000 to a top aide in the federal prosecutor’s office, he said he was merely helping a friend in need. He also said the aide, Michele Brown, had done nothing to help his gubernatorial campaign. But interviews with federal law enforcement officials suggest that Ms. Brown used her position in two significant and possibly improper ways to try to aid Mr. Christie in his run for governor."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Winston Wilde Michael Steele to come out and receive his delivery.
The mops were a reference to President Obama's response to his GOP critics at the DNC fundraiser in San Francisco last week. "Why don't you grab a mop? Why don't you help clean up? ... Grab a mop -- let's get to work!"
Three mops had bows on them, and were left at the front door of the building as a gift.
From Andrea Mitchell and Libby Leist Sen. John Kerry tell NBC News that he returned to Kabul tonight to continue negotiations with Afghan President Hamid Karzai . And Kerry will be in place tomorrow for an anticpated announcement by Karzai about the election results. Hillary Clinton said this afternoon she was "encouraged" that Karzai will abide by the constitution and accept the Electoral Complaints Commission results that left him with 48% of the vote.
Kerry spent the day in Islamabad before returning to Kabul, where he had spent the weekend. Aides say Kerry spent a lot of one-on-one time with Karzai on Saturday and Sunday, including dinner both nights.
Kerry has been coordinating closely with the State Department. A senior State Department official said, "We have been telling Karzai ... to accept the results. That will be imporant."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Iranian officials met with the U.S and other western diplomats today in Vienna -- shortly after Iranian television declared that Iran would not agree to deal with France because of past disputes with France.
France, in recent weeks, has been taking a harder line on the Iran talks than the other U.S. allies.
Today's meetings lasted about two hours and 45 minutes.
They are due to resume at 10:00 am tomorrow -- to go into greater depth and see if they can reach an implementation agreement on what was proposed in Geneva.
From NBC's Kelly Paice Maria Shriver , called "The Shriver Report: A Woman's Nation Changes Everything." This detailed study examines how women's roles in society -- from business to government to the home -- have evolved in recent years.
But the study also finds that, as a nation, America has not come to terms with the evolving role of the work-life balancing woman. "Our leading institutions -- government, businesses, faith, and media -- have not kept up with the modern American family. For example, both our basic labor standards and our social insurance system are based on supporting 'traditional' families, where the husband works and the wife stays home to care for children."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Bobby Cervantes Newsweek explores the not-so-new idea of a three-year college degree.
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), an education secretary under President George H. W. Bush and former president of the University of Tennessee, highlights Hartwick College, a small liberal arts school in upstate New York.
Alexander writes, “[B]y eliminating that extra year, three-year degree students [at Hartwick] save 25 percent in costs. Instead of taking 30 credits a year, these students take 40.”
A four-year degree, he adds, also means that students accrue more unnecessary debt and are held back from entering the workforce or graduate school.
From NBC's Pete Williams
In a written statement, Attorney General Eric Holder said, "It will not be a priority to use federal resources to prosecute patients with serious illnesses or their caregivers who are complying with state laws on medical marijuana, but we will not tolerate drug traffickers who hide behind claims of compliance with state law to mask activities that are clearly illegal."
The guidelines contain examples of conduct that would show when individuals are not in clear compliance with state law and may indicate illegal drug trafficking activity -- including unlawful use of firearms, violence, sales to minors, money laundering, amounts of marijuana inconsistent with purported compliance with state or local law, marketing or excessive financial gains similarly inconsistent with state or local law, illegal possession or sale of other controlled substances, and ties to criminal enterprises.
From NBC's Mark Murray President Obama campaigning for Creigh Deeds next week in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial contest, Team Deeds has just announced that Bill Clinton -- along with Terry McAuliffe, whom Deeds defeated in the Dem primary -- will stump for Deeds tomorrow in Northern Virginia.
Democrats are trying to do everything they can to narrow a race that Republican Bob McDonnell is comfortably leading, according to the polls.
From NBC's Mark Murray Harry Reid to support a public option in the health-care negotiations. The ad asks: "Is Harry Reid strong enough?"
As Senate majority leader, Reid is tasked with forging together the Senate Finance Committee health-care bill (which doesn't contain a public option) and the Senate HELP Committee bill (which does). Today's New York Times writes that Reid "could choose to leave more contentious elements out of the measure he brings to the floor and allow backers of the public option, for instance, to try to add it through an amendment. If they can assemble the necessary votes, it would be a triumph; if they lose, they would have had their chance."
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg *** Back on the trail: With 15 days until this year’s Election Day, and with nearly 400 days until next year’s, President Obama will spend much of this week and next week focusing on 2009 and 2010. On Tuesday, he hits a fundraiser for Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate in the special congressional election in New York to replace former Rep. John McHugh (R), who is now serving in the administration. On Wednesday, Obama heads to New Jersey to participate in a rally for incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (Vice President Biden attends his own rally today for Corzine at 1:00 pm ET in Edison, NJ). On Friday, the president appears at separate fundraisers for Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, both of whom are up for re-election next year and both of whom are extremely vulnerable. Then, next week, Obama will campaign for Creigh Deeds in Virginia. That’s at least five campaign/fundraising appearances for the president in the next two weeks. Interestingly, all of this week's appearances are about rallying the Dem base, not swaying independent voters. Corzine is in a three-way race in which he needs Dems only to win; Owens is in a three-way in NY-23, needing just Dems to win; Patrick also is going to be facing a three-way; and then there's Dodd who, in a very blue state, simply needs Dems to rally back to his side.
*** Remember, the force is with you -- or not: Speaking of 2010, Dan Balz sets some smart C.W. for next year’s midterms. “Three forces threaten Democrats in the 2010 elections: populist anger on the right, disaffection in the middle and potential disillusionment on the left,” Balz wrote. In a way, some of the key races of 2009 provide a glimpse of these issues. We're seeing populist anger on the right rise up in the NY-23 special congressional election; we're seeing disaffection in the middle taking place in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest; and we're seeing some limited potential disillusionment on the left in New Jersey, where indie candidate Chris Daggett has gotten the support (for instance) of the Sierra Club.
*** Shades of ’92? But those three forces don’t necessarily mean that Republicans will benefit next year. "People are more frightened than they were in '93 and '94,” Newt Gingrich told Balz in his piece. "Both by the radicalism of the administration and by the economy." But Newt added, “They're more skeptical of Republicans than they were in '93 and '94. The aftereffect of '06 and '08 is there's not a rush to Republicans." Indeed, 2010 could end up feeling a lot like 1992, when populist anger and public frustration at the deficit spawned the political phenomenon that became Ross Perot, which turned out to benefit Bill Clinton and hurt Bush 41 in that year’s presidential contest -- but then benefited Republicans on the House and Senate level. In fact, the REAL beneficiaries in '92 were NEW candidates, reform-minded candidates. That’s why Daggett’s third-party candidacy in New Jersey is worth watching two weeks from now. Does he end up getting enough of the vote to catapult Corzine to victory, even though the incumbent governor’s numbers remain stuck in the high 30s/low 40s? If this happens, Democrats shouldn’t take comfort, though: Corzine would have won because disaffected voters opted neither for the Dem nor the Republican -- but instead for the “none of the above” guy (remember Monty Brewster in “Brewster’s Millions”?) And in a midterm election, disaffected voters can do three things: stay home, fire the incumbent, or turn to a third party (if available).
*** Tough enough? A narrative that dogged Obama in 2007/2008 -- but which he overcame in winning the Democratic nomination and then the presidency -- is beginning to resurface again: Is he tough enough? In Friday's National Journal , Kirk Victor wrote that “a narrative is emerging among some columnists, pundits, and academics across the political spectrum that Obama’s low-key, cool, cerebral style, while reassuring on many levels, lacks the punch that is sometimes needed to advance an agenda in Washington, and in a perilous world.” And on Sunday, Maureen Dowd added, “F.D.R. asked to be judged by the enemies he had made. But what of a president who strives to keep everyone in some vague middle ground of satisfaction or dissatisfaction, without ever offending anyone?” This growing narrative is coming mostly from the left. Why? Of course, as Doris Kearns Goodwin would probably remind us, Abraham Lincoln faced similar criticism (many abolitionists and Radical Republicans didn’t think Lincoln’s opposition to slavery went far enough while president). Then again, when the chips were down, Lincoln was certainly tough (the Emancipation Proclamation, demanding full surrender from the South at the end of the Civil War).
*** Desperately seeking compromise: Ironically, conservatives are making headway with their supporters by making the case Obama IS tough and radical. So this truly is about those on the left unhappy with the president's addiction to compromise. As we've all witnessed, the president is always in search of the elusive middle ground, whether on health care (public OPTIONAL), Afghanistan (something less than 40,000 more troops?), or the stimulus (lots more in tax cuts than Dems wanted).
*** Howdy, partner: Turning to Afghanistan, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel made some news yesterday, when he said that the Obama administration would postpone any decision to send more combat troops into that country until the disputed election there had been resolved. “‘It would be reckless to make a decision on U.S. troop level if, in fact, you haven't done a thorough analysis of whether, in fact, there's an Afghan partner ready to fill that space that the U.S. troops would create and become a true partner in governing the Afghan country," Emanuel said on CNN, per the Washington Post . Meanwhile, a report on the fraud allegations coming from Afghanistan is supposed to be released today . “The results of investigations by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) will form the basis of a decision on whether Afghanistan can finally declare a new president or must go to the polls for a second time.” And news this morning indicates Karzai is testing out a new campaign theme that could make the president's decision even more difficult: His supporters are calling the election commission report a "foreign interference." If Karzai does NOT accept the results, then what?
*** Drone wars: Staying with Afghanistan, the New Yorker's Jane Mayer has an intriguing piece on the increased predator drone attacks since Obama took office. It's a campaign promise he made, to some controversy, during the primary campaign, by the way. Writes Mayer: "It’s easy to understand the appeal of a ‘push-button’ approach to fighting Al Qaeda, but the embrace of the Predator program has occurred with remarkably little public discussion, given that it represents a radically new and geographically unbounded use of state-sanctioned lethal force. And, because of the C.I.A. program’s secrecy, there is no visible system of accountability in place, despite the fact that the agency has killed many civilians inside a politically fragile, nuclear-armed country with which the U.S. is not at war. Should something go wrong in the C.I.A.’s program -- last month, the Air Force lost control of a drone and had to shoot it down over Afghanistan -- it’s unclear what the consequences would be."
*** The glass ceiling: In conjunction with the NBC/MSNBC focus this week on women in the workplace and society overall, we here at First Read plan to examine women from various political angles. Today, we take a look today at the last barrier for female U.S. politicians: the presidency. It's not just the fact that there has not been a woman president yet; it's the fact that there have been so few women presidential CANDIDATES. Not only did it take the two major parties 24 years to see a woman make it on a national ticket (1984 to 2008), it's still not obvious any women will be serious candidates in 2012 or 2016. Sure, there's lots of speculation surrounding Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton. But after them? (There was a dearth of women candidates for president between '84 and '08 as well, with Elizabeth Dole being the only serious candidate and she didn't make it to Iowa). One of the main reasons why we’ve had so few female presidential possibilities is because not enough women have become governors, which still remains the best stepping stone to the presidency. But this could change after 2010. If Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) wins the Texas governor’s race, if Alex Sink (D) wins in Florida, and if Meg Whitman (R) wins in California, that could elevate both into the discussion for 2012 and beyond… By the way, don’t miss the “Meet the Press” discussion of Shriver’s report .
*** Where things stand: According to Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics , there are six female governors (Jan Brewer of AZ, Jodi Rell of CT, Linda Lingle of HI, Jennifer Granholm of MI, Bev Perdue of NC, and Chris Gregoire of WA), 17 women U.S. senators (Lisa Murkowski of AK, Blanche Lincoln of AR, Barbara Boxer of CA, Dianne Feinstein of CA, Mary Landrieu of LA, Susan Collins of ME, Olympia Snowe of ME, Barbara Mikulski of MD, Debbie Stabenow of MI, Amy Klobuchar of MN, Claire McCaskill of MO, Kay Hagan of NC, Jeanne Shaheen of NH, Kirsten Gillibrand of NY, Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX, Patty Murray of WA, and Maria Cantwell of WA), and there are 73 congresswoman.
*** 2009 watch: Finally, turning to the upcoming gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, Jon Corzine (not surprisingly) picked up the New York Times’ endorsement (Daggett finished "second" in the editorial), while Creigh Deeds (again, not surprisingly) got the Washington Post’s nod (though Post went out of its way to give back-handed praise to Bob McDonnell, perhaps a nod to the inevitable?). Meanwhile, McDonnell’s campaign touted the endorsement it got from Hampton Roads’ Daily Press , which backed Tim Kaine in ’05. By the way, was Sunday's Politico piece on the Virginia race and how Deeds to come back really just the first of what could be many pre-bituaries?
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 15 days
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OBAMA AGENDA: Watching Karzai
This is going to be either a momentous week in Afghanistan's attempt to become a democratic (small d) society -- or a disastrous one. The Wall Street Journal : "Afghan President Hamid Karzai may not accept the results of a vote recount from the summer's general election, officials from his campaign hinted, adding a further twist to the already fraught post-poll political environment. On Sunday, his supporters began demonstrations against ‘foreign interference’ in the elections."
More: "The demonstrations and Mr. Karzai's reluctance to accept a possible second round add to a tense situation, where Afghan government and Western credibility are at a low point and a resurgent Taliban have extended their reach and influence throughout the country. A number of foreign officials, including U.S. Senator John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, were in Kabul this weekend to meet with all sides and try to come to a solution."
To try and cast the election reports by the U.N. as "foreign interference" is an attempt to take a sledgehammer to the process.
The election report is due to be released by the UN-backed commission today.
White House aides went out on the Sunday shows and expressed outrage over the Wall Street bonuses. "The White House has been taking an increasingly confrontational tone against Wall Street bonuses and lobbying efforts to prevent its broad plan for new financial regulations," The Washington Post writes. "Obama has given at least two high-profile speeches in recent weeks urging the financial industry to stop lobbying Congress not to pass laws that would, among other things, create a new agency to police credit card and mortgage lending. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel chided Wall Street firms for neglecting their responsibilities 'in the short period of time where they have a level of normalcy because of what the government did to help them.'"
In his weekly Saturday address, President Obama focused on health care and went after insurance companies and cable news.
Obama advisers said they will still leave most of the health-care work to Congress.
The Washington Post writes that “Obama continues to support the concept of a government-sponsored insurance option, but ‘he is not demanding that it is in" the final legislation, Valerie Jarrett, a senior White House adviser, said on NBC's ‘Meet the Press.’ ‘He thinks it's the best possible choice.’”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times takes a look at Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi as they work to pass health-care bills through their respective chambers. “As she pulls together a health care bill, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been exceedingly direct, lawmakers say, asking them explicitly what it will take to win their vote. Across the Rotunda, Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, is trying a different tack, acting like what one participant in closed-door sessions described as a coach, urging key chairmen not to get bogged down in pride of authorship and to keep their eyes on the legislative ball.”
“While they may have different styles and different sets of Democrats to assemble behind separate proposals, Ms. Pelosi and Mr. Reid have an identical goal: passage this year of a major health care overhaul.”
"Senate Republicans, acknowledging they lack the votes to block a health care reform bill outright, have implemented a comprehensive political strategy to delay, define and derail," Roll Call writes, adding: "Republicans are demanding a deceleration of the process and moving to define whatever plan that emerges as a combination of Medicare cuts, tax increases, higher insurance premiums and rising overall costs."
CONTINUED >>
"From July to September, the most vulnerable Senate incumbents once again socked away huge sums of money in an attempt to inoculate themselves against tough 2010 election challenges," Roll Call reports. "That group includes Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), who raised more than $2 million, and fellow Democratic Sens. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Arlen Specter (Pa.), who brought in $1.2 million and $1.8 million, respectively. Targeted Republican incumbents who raised more than $1 million include Sens. David Vitter (La.) and Richard Burr (N.C.)." (Here's the fundraising in chart form .)
Stu Rothenberg on the dangers for House Dems in 2010: "Those at greatest risk represent Republican-leaning or conservative districts, as well as districts where a big turnout for Barack Obama by African-American and younger voters helped Democratic candidates for Congress. The list of Democratic freshmen most affected by the national shift includes Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.), Walt Minnick (Idaho), Frank Kratovil (Md.), Travis Childers (Miss.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Steve Driehaus (Ohio), Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) and Tom Perriello (Va.)… If House losses in the 2010 elections are limited to the districts already mentioned, some Democratic insiders will breathe a huge sigh of relief, since net Democratic losses would be only in the eight- to 15-seat range. That would mean the political environment didn’t drown plenty of Democrats in potentially dangerous districts."
NEW JERSEY: Politics Daily suggests that with Creigh Deeds further behind than Corzine, the White House is more eager to give its support to the New Jersey candidate. “When it comes to deploying Air Force One and turning on the White House political machine on behalf of candidates like Corzine, incumbent presidents behave exactly like bankers who only lend their umbrellas when the sun is shining.”
Virginia and New York after the jump...
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Ali Weinberg Mark Sanford apparently is passing legislation to establish electronic medical records in his state, which will, according to a release from his office, "improve patient care and reduce duplicative tests by allowing doctors, hospitals and healthcare providers to share up-to-the-minute electronic patient information."
"We believe health information exchagnes and electronic records can indeed improve healthcare outcomes by increasing efficiency, streamlining information and instilling a sense of accountability into a system that too often remains fragmented and overwhelmed by red tape," Gov. Sanford is quoted as saying.
from NBC's Ali Weinberg The U.S. government's budget deficit for Fiscal Year 2009 increased to a record $1.42 trillion, which according to
Bloomberg is the deepest recession since the 1930s. The Treasury Department attributed the majority of the deficit to the previous administration of
George W. Bush.
"The FY2009 deficit was largely the product of the spending and tax policies inherited from the previous Administration, exacerbated by a severe recession and financial crisis that were underway as the current Administration took office," a Treasury Department press release said.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner seemed sanguine about the report, citing a lower deficit than expected.
"This year's deficit is lower than we had projected earlier this year, in part because we are managing to repair the financial system at a lower cost to taxpayers," Geithner is quoted as saying.CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Mark Murray President Obama visited the New Orleans, the city's mayor Ray Nagin left for Cuba today to discuss hurricane preparedness with the country's leaders.
According to the Times-Picayune, the press release announcing the trip was scant on details like how much it will cost or who is paying for it. But it did say that Nagin and a delegation of city and state officials will meet with the Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine and learn about the way Cuba's defense officials prepare for disaster.
Nagin's office also said that he is the first New Orleans mayor to make an official visit to the country in 50 years, after an initial report said that Nagin would be the first U.S. mayor to visit in that time.
From NBC's Ali Weinberg President Obama yesterday pushed back on recent claims that his administration lacks accomplishments, framing health care reform as the latest in a series of legislative challenges Democrats have tackled. He also denied that Democratic leaders, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who also attended the event, are discouraged by the opposition they've faced from both sides of the aisle.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice The president's appearance today with President George H. W. Bush in College Station, TX, should be nothing but a PR winner. Anytime we see our presidents interacting on a bipartisan basis, it's usually a positive. Today's appearance with Bush 41 is also an opportunity to do ridiculous presidential comparisons. (Ok, so they aren't ridiculous but it's Friday, cut us some slack). President Obama has been compared favorably and unfavorably to Carter and Reagan recently. His critics want to turn him into Carter for obvious reasons; his proponents believe he's following a similar trajectory as Reagan (after all, Reagan dealt with early unemployment, a midterm election defeat before winning re-election in a landslide). But one president that Obama doesn't get comparisons with but should might be Bush 41. Sure, they are from opposite parties but on foreign policy, for instance, there are a lot of similarities (maybe that's why Bush 41 NSA Scowcroft frequently praises Obama national security decisions). But there's another part of Bush 41 that gets ignored too often (mostly because of his son, 43) and that's his pragmatic side. Bush 41 was a system guy, whether it was working with Congress or simply playing the Washington game, he set up his White House to be cooperative, not combative. Obama has shown similar traits. On one hand, it's a recipe for getting things down in Washington, on the other hand, it's also way to look TOO Washington and end up being out of touch, the exact issues that made Bush 41 a one-term president. Just something to (over)think about on this Friday.
*** What's The Holdup? When it comes to announcing a new strategy for Afghanistan, it appears something is slowing down the process. That something appears to be the disputed election in that country. Revelations that Afghan President Hamid Karzai actually received less than half of the national vote has mixed implications for the Obama administration. A runoff election between Karzai and his closest competitor would grant the winner at least a chance to appear legitimate. Then again, no one can be sure fraud won't be rampant again, or that a runoff so soon after the first election is even feasible -- because of the brutal Afghan winters, an election would either have to be held in November, or not until spring, and the latter option is "a recipe for disaster," Karzai's ambassador in D.C. told the Washington Post this week. Besides the internal problems a November runoff would pose, there's the consequences to America's military strategy: Obama has put off making a decision partly because he wanted to wait for the final election results--now, however, he runs the risk of announcing a new direction with no clear winner in power. The Obama administration has advocated for a fair and complete investigation into the Afghan elections, but the current results bring truth to the phrase "be careful what you wish for."
*** Campaigner-in-Chief: As if it wasn't obvious, the president's appearance next week with Jon Corzine only underscores the White House's belief that of the two BIG gubernatorial races this year, they think they have a much better shot in New Jersey. In fact, consider the fact that there is no actual date circled on the calendar yet for the president to stump in Virginia for Creigh Deeds. Granted, the Corzine path to victory is all about motivating the base and the president is a good tool for that. Corzine might need just 42-45% to win. Deeds has all sorts of problems, both with the Democratic base and the middle. Can the president pull him over the finish line? Probably not and that may be why the White House has yet to agree to a stumping date for Deeds. There's a path for Deeds to get to 45-48% by getting the Democratic base engaged (which is what you use the president to do). What's not clear is whether there's a path to 50+1 anymore for Deeds.
*** How To Save A Job (And A Stimulus Perception?): At a police training center in St. Louis yesterday, Vice President Biden touted the impacts of the federal stimulus package, citing 50 police officer jobs that were saved or created using $8 million from the fund. "Are we home yet? No, we are not," he said, but added that without the $787 billion stimulus plan, a million more jobs would have been lost since January." Read that Biden sentence again; it's no wonder the administration is having such a tough time proving, well, a less negative. Never mind a new report the GOP is making hay out of which indicates the stimulus, to date, has only directly created or saved 30,083 jobs. Selling the stimulus has proven to be one of the most difficult tasks this administration has taken on. One wonders if the public will ever turn positive on the stimulus (even if economists continue to praise it) given the bleak job outlook for the foreseeable future. Does that mean the administration should give up trying to change the perception of it? Probably not but at some point one wonders if there are diminishing returns for Biden's efforts.
*** Stray Thoughts Friday: Speaker Pelosi is making an interesting pitch to her more conservative House Democrats: help me pass a more robust public option in the House so that the compromise with the Senate is something closer to what you would want. Her thinking is if she passes something that passes muster with the Blue Dogs BEFORE the House bill gets merged with the Senate, then her leverage on the issue is even less. ... Is it good news or bad news that a LARGE majority of Jersey voters tell the New York Times that Obama's endorsement of Corzine makes "no difference." ... Is there anything sillier than politician sports bets? (oh, wait, no...longer...have...the...high...ground...on THIS fun critique anymore!) In all seriousness, take a closer look at the charities involved in the "Goatee Gamble" (scroll down).
As Islamic militants launched internal coordinated attacks in Pakistan’s second-largest city, Lahore, President Obama signed into law a $7.5 billion aid bill while the country’s military criticized the bill as interfering with its internal affairs, the AP writes. The bill was signed only after senior American lawmakers assured Pakistan’s foreign minister that it is not “an attempt to micromanage operations” by the country’s military. Two lawmakers who helped write the bill, Senator John Kerry (D-MA) and Representative Howard Berman (D-CA) provided an “unusual” statement with the bill, which said, “any interpretation of this act which suggests that the United States does not fully recognize and respect the sovereignty of Pakistan would be directly contrary to congressional intent.” Wall Street Journal.
Karzai's share of the vote has shrunk to just 47% of the vote. "The tally by the U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission, which one official called 'stunning,' is due to be finalized Friday. Preliminary results by Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission had given Karzai 54.6 percent of the Aug. 20 vote," notes the Washington Post. "The findings have major implications for the Obama administration's ongoing deliberations over Afghanistan war strategy and could eventually help remove the cloud of illegitimacy hanging over its partner government there. But a new election could also make a difficult situation worse, particularly if fraud is once again alleged or if the vote has to be delayed because of the onset of winter."
CONTINUED >>
The administration is facing pressure to rewrite a 2007 National Intelligence Assessment which stated that Iran was backing off its nuclear intentions, reports the Wall Street Journal. "Rewriting an NIE is a major undertaking because it is the most comprehensive of U.S. intelligence reports and reflects the combined judgment of all 16 American intelligence bodies... So far, intelligence officials are not 'ready to declare that invalid,' a senior U.S. intelligence official said, emphasizing that the judgment covered the 2003-2007 time frame only. That leaves room for a reassessment of the period since the December 2007 report was completed, the official suggested."
More: "A shift in the U.S. intelligence community's official stance -- concluding Iran restarted its nuclear weapons work or that Iran's ambitions have ramped up -- could significantly affect President Barack Obama's efforts to use diplomacy to contain Tehran's capabilities."
Senate Democrats are
exploring ways to increase the number of people covered under the Baucus plan, but can they do it without adding to the deficit? "According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill would ensure that 94% of non-elderly Americans are covered by health insurance in 2019, up from 83% in 2010. Senate Democrats may add to subsidies for lower-income families to push that percentage to 95% or 96%, people familiar with the discussions said. If more people sign up for insurance, fewer would face the penalties that the bill proposes for those who choose to go without coverage."
With the health care bill at a "critical juncture" as it emerged from the Senate Finance Committee this week, the AMA's support of the bill is up in the air more now than ever, says the Washington Post. The crux of the problem? "The AMA's wobbly support of the moment is rooted in its recent effort to find common ground among the increasingly splintered interests of the nation's 800,000 physicians, whose loyalty to organized medicine has ebbed for decades. It stems, too, from differences in how the several bills before Congress deal with a matter of paramount importance to many doctors: the amount the government pays them to treat older Americans."
Pelosi and other Democrats are getting tough on insurers as they continue to block efforts at health care reform. CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post describes Obama's attitude as feisty yesterday.
The Wall Street Journal looks at how the president used the opportunity to tout his stimulus and government spending plans all while facing questions from New Orleans' residents about why more of that money is not being spent on them.
"While visiting the University of New Orleans for the town hall, Obama made slight but unmistakable attempts to compare his administration's efforts to those of President George W. Bush's administration." asked the president “why do people hate you?” To which Obama responded: When things are going tough, then, you know, you're going to get some of the blame, and that's part of the job. But, you know, I'm a pretty tough guy.”
The Economist and YouGov release a new poll finding President Obama’s 52% approval rating “his best since July,” and his 39% disapproval the lowest in months. The poll also gauged Congressional approval ratings, finding it at 14%-60%. Washington Post reports. In the same period that President Bush had nominated 95 judges, Obama has sent forward 23; and only 3 of those have been confirmed, largely due to Republicans employing delay maneuvers. “Some Democrats attribute that GOP success partly to the administration's reluctance to fight, arguing that Obama's emphasis on easing partisan rancor over judgeships has backfired and only emboldened Senate Republicans.
New data shows that the economic stimulus plan created -- get ready for it -- just over 30,000 jobs and has Republicans criticizing the stimulus as a failure. "The White House defended the partial data, which included jobs saved or created from contracts that made up just 5 percent of the $339 billion in stimulus funds spent through September.
In a speech yesterday, Tim Geithner warned that the government should be careful not to withdraw stimulus support too soon and that growth will be slower than expected.
The Washington Post examines yesterday's big financial news -- that banks are raking in big profits. "The results have undercut conventional wisdom that the prosperity of banks depends on the prosperity of their customers. Generally, bank profits lag behind economic recoveries as banks wait for people and businesses to start borrowing again. But the federal government has reversed that relationship by investing more than $1 trillion in its efforts to prop up financial markets, seeking to revive the banks as a means of reviving the economy."
Sarah Palin's memoir, due for release next month, is expected to be a huge success - and some predict could not only give a shot in the arm to her political career but the book business as well.
First Read dubbed Lindsey Graham the new John McCain earlier this week. The Hill makes the same observation.
The Wall Street Journal looks at how tea party activists are complicating the chances of some Republican candidates who have been hand picked by the GOP.
New Jersey: O Ye of Little Faith: A
New York Times poll finds that New Jerseyans don’t have faith in either major-party candidates, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine or Republican Chris Christie. Among likely voters, Corzine has a 40%-37% lead on Christie, but “With the two campaigns slinging mud but inspiring scant hope, and an independent candidate, Christopher J. Daggett, seen as having little chance of victory, New Jerseyans are more supportive of the devil they know than the devil they don’t, according to the poll.”
New Jersey's independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett has played the role of game-changer in this race - but can he pull off a win? The Philadelphia Inquirer's Carl Golden writes, "Initially dismissed as a gadfly on an ego trip, Daggett has emerged as a significant - and potentially deciding - factor in the New Jersey race." In fact, Daggett's opponents, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R), are starting to take Daggett's candidacy serious and reportedly have their researchers scoping out anything potentially damaging to Daggett's campaign, Golden writes. Although Christie "flippantly described the Daggett campaign as an 'amusement,'" Golden reports that Daggett was the only candidate bold enough to put out a property-tax relief plan, and one that actually got a lot of favorable feedback. Despite Daggett's increasing popularity and bold campaign moves, Golden draws the conclusion that it's very unlikely that Daggett can pull off a victory.New Jersey Star-Ledger reports. The multimillionaire Democratic nominee Gov. Jon Corzine reported a $3.13 million loss, while Republican challenger Chris Christie and his wife earned $446,854 last year. Compared to the major-party candidates, yes, Daggett falls a little behind with his tax returns showing he and his wife making $287,240 last year. Despite his earnings trailing the other candidates, Daggett still is raking in a lot more dough than the state's $66,509 household average, the Star-Ledger writes. CONTINUED >>
FLORIDA: State Senator Ted Deutch (D) announced his intent to run in a special election for Representative Robert Wexler’s House seat, after the congressman announced yesterday he would resign the seat in January.
CONNECTICUT: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), running for Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat, will get endorsed Monday by Ned Lamont, the former victor over Joe Lieberman in Connecticut’s Senate race, who later lost to the incumbent when he switched parties. DELAWARE: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and Attorney General Beau Biden (D) are neck-and-neck in a potential Senate race matchup, 46% to 45%, a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll finds.
NEVADA: Harry Reid will begin airing campaign commercials in Nevada today, coinciding with Vice President Biden’s visit to the state and appearance with Reid at a fundraiser today. Reid is trailing in polls to two relatively unknown Republican candidates, former state party chairman Sue Lowden and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian.
NYC MAYOR: City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D) yesterday said one way to reduce New York’s $5 billion deficit would be to hit up “a friend in Washington.” He suggested working with President as one way to reduce the budget, as well as rooting out waste in each city agency and re-instating the commuter tax, which Mayor Michael Bloomberg called “pie-in-the-sky” thinking.
Presidential candidate... Mike Pence? His travel schedule is raising eyebrows, writes
The Hill . Pence has traveled to Iowa but also made a quiet trip to South Carolina where he met with party activists this week.
Should NBC’s Chuck Todd and ABC’s Jake Tapper decide not to grow or shave their facial hair (depending on whose team loses the National League Champion Series, Chuck’s Dodgers or Jake’s Phillies) they’ve decided that the loser will donate to the winner’s charity of choice:
Chuck has chosen Samaritan Inns, which provides housing and recovery services to homeless and addicted men and women. Samaritan Inns’ Recovery Continuum Program has proven results in its unique holistic approach to recovery treatment providing structured housing and healing services in an environment of support and accountability giving homeless and addicted men and women the opportunity to rebuild their lives. A secure donation can be made on their website .nationalhealthforum@gmail.com . You can read about Syed's work in this July column by Nicholas Kristof.
from NBC's Kelly Paice and Ali Weinberg President Obama to heed the recommendations of the top military commander in Afghanistan, suggesting delay may be hurting troops and the nation's defense.Thomas J. Tradewell Sr., a Vietnam veteran, criticized officials who have spoken out against a troop increase, saying those decisions should be left up to the commanders in the field.
While he did not name them, Vice President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats including Nancy Pelosi, Carl Levin and David Obey have all expressed reservations about McChrystal's plan.
"President Obama identified Afghanistan as a counterinsurgency operation requiring appropriate planning, which means our commanders are the experts in this regard, not our politicians," Tradewell wrote in a statement.
Tradewall also called on the president to make a timely decision to avoid empowering insurgent forces there: “In Afghanistan, the extremists are sensing weakness and indecision within the U.S. government, which plays into their hands, as evidenced by the increased attacks in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. I fear that an emboldened enemy will now intensify their efforts to kill more U.S. soldiers."
Time is not a luxury when our magnificent men and women in uniform are in harm’s way,” Tradewell concluded.
from NBC's Ali Weinberg Chuck Todd and his ABC counterpart Jake Tapper.
Here's the deal: Jake wagered Chuck that if the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League Championship, Todd must shave his goatee, and if the L.A. Dodgers win, Tapper must grow one.
Should both decide to keep their look, however, there is a consolation, as the loser will donate to the charity of the winner's choice. Chuck has chosen Samaritan Inns, which provides housing and recovery services to homeless and addicted men and women. A secure donation can be made on their website, at http://www.samaritaninns.org/
Jake has picked Dr. Shershah Syed, an ob/gyn who has devoted himself to saving impoverished women in his native Pakistan. His charitable work can be supported through nationalhealthforum@gmail.com or at P.O. BOX 240093, St. Louis, MO 63024. The phone number is 314-255-7409.
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Ali Weinberg Craig Shirley. While the mystery of 1983's "debategate" remains unsolved, Shirley's new book sheds new light on the scandal, in which Ronald Reagan staffers stole the briefing books President Carter was using to prepare for a 1980 debate with candidate Reagan.
The web of evidence Shirley weaves--which Politico excerpts today--all leads to one man: the late Paul Corbin, whom Shirley describes as "a political troublemaker par excellence."
Corbin was a Kennedy loyalist who defected to the Reagan campaign after developing a hatred for the 1980 Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter. Corbin met several times with campaign manager Bill Casey at the Reagan-Bush headquarters in Arlington, VA. Shirley writes of the chain of events surrounding the heist: "On Oct. 25, Corbin signed in at 9:35 a.m., gave his destination as “Casey” and picked up a check for $1,500. It was just three days before the big debate between Reagan and Carter.
CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Bobby Cervantes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT) today deflected questions about his potential leadership role in the Senate’s attempt to overturn the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy, saying only that he is in discussions with the White House and gay rights groups.
After a hearing on the Domestic Partner Benefits and Obligations Act, which would allow gay federal employees to extend their benefits to their partners, Lieberman stressed the importance of garnering support for the repeal from Senate Republicans and having support within the military.
“It might not be my decision, but I just would want to make sure that we go about this in the most effective way that builds the highest probability of success,” the Connecticut Independent said, according to The Advocate.CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Ali Weinberg Betsy Cline followed House Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel , asking him repeatedly whether the ongoing investigation into his financial disclsoure forms would affect his performance as committee chairman. The normally polite, calm Rangel snapped at Cline, calling her questions "rude." This encounter underscores the pressure Rangel's been under lately, not just because of the probe itself, but also its political fallout.
When the House tabled a resolution against Rangel last week, two Mississippi Democrats voted against Rangel, suggesting that his support within his party is gradually fragmenting. Last week, Rangel's former campaign manager Vince Morgan announced he is challenging his former boss for the seat Rangel has held for almost 40 years. And donations to Rangel's re-election campaign already seem to be slowing down, as the nonpartisan website OpenSecrets.org reports he has raised "a paltry $685,050," in the first half of 2009, compared with his $6 million haul in 2008.
One of the many Democratic congressmen Rangel has donated money to over the years has reported returning those contributions: Peter Welch (D-VT), who has returned $15,000 of the $19,000 he's raked in through his candidate committees from Rangel.
****UPDATE **** Rep. Welch has returned all $19,000 from Rep. Rangel upon being asked to join the House Ethics Committee, according to Welch's communications director Paul Heintz. The link above goes to the corrected OpenSecrets.org story.
from NBC's Luke Russert and Ali Weinberg House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi pushed back on, but did not outright deny, the idea that Senator
Olympia Snowe (R-ME) has more influence in the health care debate than the Speaker does. Snowe’s vote in favor of the Senate Finance Committee’s health care bill is thought by some to have opened the door to the future votes of Democrats from conservative voting districts.
When asked by a reporter today whether Sen. Snowe had more sway than herself, Speaker Pelosi said, "If I may say, a strange question. It is not about who has what kind of influence, it's a question of what is the best approach for America's middle class."
Pelosi also seemed to try to assuage the concerns of labor unions today, saying that all efforts to enact health care reform have the middle class's best interest at heart. CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Kelly Paice The House Financial Services Committee passed a bill today putting stricter regulations on financial derivatives–a multitrillion-dollar market–in an effort to bring transparency to the system. Derivatives are the complex financial securities that are widely blamed as a major contributor to the recent economic crisis.
"The bill is the first in a series of measures the Obama administration and congressional allies are pushing to remake the financial system," The Hill writes. The committee passed the bill on a vote of 43-26, with lone Republican Rep. Walter Jon (R-N.C.) voting in favor alongside all Democrats. Leaders in the House are hoping for votes in November, however it will likely take the Senate longer to take up the legislation.
Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the Financial Services Committee, will now turn his focus to the creation of a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency, which Frank said he hoped to complete the markup of the legislation by Wednesday. However, this measure has been "much more contentious," The Hill writes. Republicans and those in the financial sector have shown strong opposition to the creation of a new agency.
from NBC's Betsy Cline House Republican Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell joined forces today to repeat their criticism of the Democrats' health care proposal. Boehner said it will create more government bureaucracy at the expense of doctors and patients; McConnell echoed the sentiment, saying the plan calls for higher premiums, higher taxes, and a reduction in Medicare benefits.
McConnell called for a "real" Senate debate "on an effort to restructure one-sixth of our economy." He said Senate Republicans would insist the bill be online for at least 72 hours with a complete CBO score.
Boehner also encouraged President Obama to live up to his campaign promise to conduct the writing of health care legislation in the open. "The president during the campaign last year said that when we got to this part of the process, that it'd be a big open room, that he'd invite in the CSPAN cameras," but instead, Boehner said, "the bill is being written in the dark of night."
After much partisanship on health care, however, Boehner seemingly agreed with President Obama's call for an emergency $250 Social Security check for seniors and disabled Americans. He said he supported the President's call as long as the checks are funded by the stimulus.
from NBC's Chuck Todd Not to be outdone by GQ's "50 Most Powerful People in DC" list, Congressional Quarterly's Craig Crawford lists CQ's "Top 50 of All Time " on his blog "Trail Mix ."
Who made the list? Well, where would Washington be today without the four construction workers who pried President William Howard Taft out of his bathtub? They rank at #43.
from NBC's Pete Williams Ruth Bader Ginsburg was taken to the Washington Hospital Center at about 11:15 p.m. Wednesday evening after an apparent adverse reaction to a sleeping aid combined with cold medication she took immediately after boarding an overnight flight bound for London.
Before the plane took off, the court says, she "experienced extreme drowsiness causing her to fall from her seat. Paramedics were called and she was taken to the Washington Hospital Center as a precaution."
Justice Ginsburg was evaluated at the hospital and she was found to be in stable health. Doctors attributed her symptoms to a reaction caused by the combination of a prescription sleeping aid and an over-the-counter cold medication. She was admitted overnight for observation and was released this morning.
from NBC's Tanisha Best Edward M. Kennedy , President Obama spoke last night at an event held at the Ritz Carlton for the planned Edward M. Kennedy Institute for the United States Senate. He spoke in front of a group that included Rep. Patrick Kennedy (R-RI) and Kara Kennedy . The Institute will be located at the University of Massachusetts next to the JFK Library and Museum in Boston.
The President spoke of Kennedy's legacy as a man, senator, and mentor. Noting how there were many who entered public service because of Teddy and there were some who refused to leave. He said there could be no greater tribute than to make the institute a reality.
"It will be a living institute where students and teachers and the public can come together and learn about the role and the importance of the Senate that he loved so much. It will be a place where the most significant moments of progress and peril from our history come alive in recreations and seminars and lectures. It will be a place for new Senators and their staff will get a little training."
Also in attendence were Attorney General Eric Holder, Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis , Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and Department of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice ***
Nothing's a Big Easy For Obama These Days: Isn't it amazing how LITTLE attention the president's first trip to New Orleans is receiving? Remember when it was the symbol of everything that was wrong with the GOP and everything that was supposed to be right about the Dem Party? BTW, the president may be different but the song remains the same from local officials: the president isn't doing enough. In this case, actually, he's getting decent praise for what his administration has done, and the criticism he's receiving is symbolic. Here's how the Times-Picayune is playing the visit today: "From wheels-down to wheels-up, the stopover will clock in at three hours and 45 minutes, enough time to visit the only school to reopen in the Lower 9th Ward since Katrina, conduct a town hall at the University of New Orleans, and grab a to-go lunch order from Dooky Chase." Both the New York Times and Washington Post pick up on the theme of Gulf Coast leaders criticizing the president on two fronts: staying less than four hours and not visiting Mississippi. Is the criticism fair? No. But remember, image is everything... he's benefitted more from image in the past; this is a rare occasion where he's taking a little heat. Most interesting PICTURE of the day: GOP Governor Bobby Jindal with President Obama. Jindal will greet the president at the airport and appear at the town hall the president will be holding. The president will also tour a school in the 9th Ward. BTW, the optics issue doesn't get better as the president jets off from New Orleans to San Francisco for a fundraiser, overnighting there before flying to Texas and the Bush 41 library.
***
Senior Anger to Grow? There might not be a BIGGER problem for the Obama administration and the Congressional Democrats to deal with going into an election year than the fact that Social Security recipients are NOT receiving a COLA increase. Will the one-time $250 payment be enough? Seniors are as important of a voting bloc as there is, and even more so in lower-turnout midterm election years. That's why this issue of no COLA increase in Social Security payments for the first time since 1975 is potentially so politically explosive. If the president's plan to give a one-time $250 bonus to seniors goes through, it's the equivalent of a 2% COLA increase. It's hard to imagine this idea NOT passing this Congress given the precarious nature of politics in 2010. A drop in senior support has been as problematic for the Democrats and Obama as their erosion in indie support. This news does not help at all.
***
A Healthy Debate: Last night, MSNBC provided as good of a look at the balance the president and Senate Democrats are trying to strike when it comes to passing a health care bill. A few players in the health care debate that represent key groups from both sides of the aisle spoke up. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) told Chris Matthews on “Hardball” that while the Finance Committee bill is the “best effort yet” out of any committees, she was concerned with the proposed Medicare cuts and the lack of choice in plans (there are only four). But she added that a public option would be a “non-starter among many of us on both sides of the aisle.” For some unions, however, the public option is exactly the opposite: a “make or break” component of health care reform, as AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka said last night on “Rachel Maddow.” The labor organization released a newspaper ad with several affiliates yesterday, warning that the unions will “oppose” any bill that does not “address the concerns of working men and women.” The challenge now for Democrats is how to court both sides and the groups that come with them. Get Collins to go along with her fellow Maine Republican Olympia Snowe and open the door to a bloc of moderate and conservative Democrats. Get the labor unions and secure some of the progressive House Democrats who are demanding a public option of some sort. BTW, don't let today's New York Times story on the public option go unnoticed because there are blind Obama administration quotes talking up the Snowe-trigger idea.
***
Cable Catnip Alert: Hillary more popular than Obama! So says a new
Gallup poll . Actually, this isn't surprising. Consider, Secretary of State Clinton has the benefit of NOT owning a single piece of the domestic agenda. Going inside Gallup's numbers, the main difference is that Clinton is holding her own among indies and ONLY has 65% of GOPers viewing her unfavorably. Had Clinton still been in the Senate playing point, let's say, on health care, would her numbers be this good? The best thing, politically, she may have done is taken herself off the political stage by going international.
***
The Daggett in Christie's Heart? Not surprisingly, we got a lot of response to our conparisons of NJ Gubernatorial independent candidate Chris Daggett and ex-MN independent Governor Jesse Ventura. Just to clarify, we weren't "predicting" a Daggett win. We simply were pointing out how similar the political environments are-were in NJ and MN. Are there a lot of key differences? Of course. The biggest being how difficult, for instance, New Jersey's ballot rules are (the order of independent candiates is picked out of a hat in each district), let alone the financial hurdle the New York City media market provides. Both major parties, not just in Jersey, but nationally should be concerned about Daggett's ease in being taken seriously by voters. As the approval ratings of both parties plummet, the yearn for many voters to look for third party alternatives is going to grow. Daggett's success, whether it's because he nabs 15 or 30 percent, should be a red flag that a competent anti-party establishment, pro-reform message resonates. BTW, the Republican Governor's Association is up with both radio and TV ads trying to tie Daggett to Corzine which, according to Politico's Jonathan Martin, is causing some heartburn on the Christie campaign as there is nervousness about elevating Daggett's name too much. What to watch for with Daggett: if ANY big name politician offers up support for him; the guy is in desperate need of well-known verifiers if he wants to become more than just a Christie spoiler.
Despite concerns about the whirlwind nature of the visit, Senator Mary Landrieu, (D-LA), set the generally upbeat and expectant tone on the eve of the historic occasion that will, at least for the better part of a day,
train the eyes of the nation once again upon New Orleans and the aftermath of the most devastating disaster in American history."
Interestingly, the president will have GOP Governor Bobby Jindal join him at the NOLA town hall he's holding. Jindal was
hoping for a private meeting, but he'll greet the president at the airport and the two may have private time to chat in between events. Jindal plans to press hardest for more federal subsidies for Medicaid.
A classic example of a visual
overshadowing work behind the scenes: The Obama administration has gotten mostly universal praise for its work on Gulf Coast recovery but because his first visit to New Orleans is less than four hours and the visit doesn't include other parts of the Gulf Coast, in particular, Mississippi, he's getting some heat. Fair? No. But remember, image is everything... he's benefitted more from image in the past; this is a rare occasion where he's taking a little heat.
CONTINUED >>
On the P.R. front, has anything been more of a problem for this administration than the fact that the private insurance alternative to Medicare is called "Medicare Advantage"? And so it
sounds like they are cutting all Medicare?
The New York Times has blind administration quotes speaking favorably about the Snowe-trigger public option idea.
As banks and other industries
continue to make huge profits using financial derivatives, the House Financial Services Committee will vote today to rein in the use of such products. Next on the committee’s agenda is the creation of a new federal Consumer Financial Protection Agency, a central part of President Obama’s efforts to overhaul the regulatory system.
Another insurance-sponsored study
warns of a weak individual health care mandate that will, the study finds, increase premiums by 50 percent after five years of health care reform. This one is sponsored by Blue Cross Blue Shield and released by Oliver Wyman Inc.
CONTINUED >>
There might not be a BIGGER problem for the Obama administration and the Congressional Democrats to
deal with going into an election year than the fact that Social Security recipients are NOT receiving a COLA increase. Will the one-time $250 payment be enough?
"How quickly the $250 proposal could be enacted is uncertain. Partisan wrangling in Congress has been intense, holding up even relatively uncontroversial bills, such as the proposal to extend jobless benefits for three more months.
The stopgap measure passed the House more than three weeks ago, and Senate Democrats last week offered a version that would extend benefits another 14 weeks for the long-term unemployed in every state, plus six more weeks for those in the hardest-hit states. But legislative aides said Senate Republicans, concerned about adding to the deficit with short-term borrowing to fund the measure, were still working on amendments to the bill."
BTW, the
AP notes the $250 comes up to about a 2% increase for Social Security recipients.
Administration officials said Obama
wants to “generally” pay for the bill, but did not specify how he will fund it.
CONTINUED >>
MIDEAST PEACE: Palestinians are as pessimistic as ever about the peace process. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas' domestic political standing is in BIG trouble.AFGHANISTAN: The Washington Post reports that President Obama is not only focusing on the military aspect of the Afghanistan war but the civilian one in part because of concerns over the legitimacy of recent presidential elections there. "Although the discussions also include making a decision on whether to deploy tens of thousands of additional U.S. troops, an administration official said the president was 'very focused on the complexity of the situation' Wednesday -- looking past the military aspect of the equation and toward the civilian effort. Another official said the focus on the civilian effort grew out of a sense that the United States needs to better cultivate Afghan leaders and institutions."IRAN: Khamenei in a coma? Blogs are rampant with speculation that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is in a coma or dead :UK's Telegraph newspaper on the rumors.The Jerusalem Post .
The stress of hearings into his spotty financial disclosures is starting to show on normally cool-as-a-cucumber House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel. Yesterday, he
snapped at NBC’s Betsy Cline as she hounded him about whether the ethics investigation into his financial disclosures would affect his performance. "I wish you wouldn't do that," Rangel told Cline, brandishing a rolled up piece of paper at her face. "I know it's your job and I don't blame you, but it's so rude."
And
responding to news that his former campaign director Vincent Morgan is planning a bid to take over the seat the representative has held for almost 40 years, Rangel called the challenge “serious,” adding: “If he’s been preparing, he’s done a great job at keeping it undercover, even when he was working for me.”
Rangel’s indisputably had a tough run the past few weeks, which got some wondering yesterday why he was meeting with the House chaplain off the chamber floor. Rangel
insists the chaplain had come to him with a problem. The embattled representative also denied the stress from the ethics scandal has caused him to lose wait, attributing his svelte appearance to a new healthier diet.
The Republican National Committee’s new website, GOP.com, got quite a
“drubbing” from both the left and right-leaning blogs and pundits that by the end of the day, RNC Chairman Michael Steele changed his blog name from “What Up?” to “Change the Game.” The site has also spawned some new applications like
HammerandSteele.com , which allows a user to type a URL into a box labeled “Show me Steele!” to behold a walking, talking mini-Michael Steele from an introductory video on the RNC website.
NEW JERSEY: Governor Jon Corzine’s approach to independent candidate Chris Daggett, who has lately been picking up a bit of steam, seems to be: keep your friends close and your kind-of enemies closer. Writes
Politico ’s Jonathan Martin: “Among Corzine advisers, there’s no question about what to do about Daggett—leave him alone. “Daggett makes our point for us in a lot of ways,” said a Corzine adviser, citing the independent’s attacks on Christie for not offering more specific tax and spending proposals.
Still, Corzine’s senior officials don’t want to see Daggett’s numbers rise much further. The more serious a candidate he becomes, the more the pro-abortion rights and Sierra Club-endorsed Daggett may eat into the kind of center-left voters Corzine needs to eke out a win.Roll Call 's Stuart Rothenberg writes that as Democratic candidate Gov. Jon Corzine is not "gaining" on Republican nominee Chris Christie, Christie is slipping in the polls and independent candidate Chris Daggett is "the single best thing to happen to Corzine politically." Rothenberg writes, "In a two-man contest against Christie, the governor would have little chance to win. But a three-way race presents a very different dynamic." Recent polls have shown Daggett gaining support; however Rothenberg points out that Daggett has two disadvantages playing against him: the fact that independent candidates often lose support toward the end of a race because supporters don't want to "throw away" their votes and the issue of where his name will be placed on the ballot in each county. Rothenberg says, "Unlike Corzine and Christie, who are guaranteed one of the top two positions on the ballot in each county, Daggett's ballot position in each county was decided by random drawing." Daggett will be placed third on the ballot in two major counties, Gloucester and Bergen -- a good thing for him; however, in the others, his name will be mixed in with the nine other Independent and third-party candidates.CONTINUED >>
The Hill writes that "perhaps nowhere else will the strategy of tying incumbents to Democratic leaders like Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama be more front-and-center" in the re-election race of Rep. Travis Childers (D-Miss). "In other words, a year and a half after Childers’s special-election win symbolized Democrats’ continued momentum leading up to the 2008 campaign, his fate going forward could symbolize their decline."
Less than 10 hours after they appeared in a debate together, Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s campaign had already
released an ad attacking challenger Bill Thompson for “running away from his record.” The ad uses clips pulled right from the faceoff Tuesday night, and features Thompson saying seemingly contradictory things about his records including about the school system: “I led a reform effort,” of the school system, he said, of which he was president from 1996 to 2001. A minute later, he says of the board: “No one was in charge.”
Bloomberg might be
giving his own opponent a leg up, as the mayor’s multimillion-dollar ad campaign against city comptroller Bill Thompson is giving him more exposure than he would ever have been able to buy with his $3.8 million spent so far.
CONTINUED >>
The Congressional Anti-Terrorism Caucus is
accusing the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) of planting CAIR interns in key Congressional national security panels. Representative Paul Broun (R-GA) said he was very concerned about “an organization connected to or supporting terrorists running influence operations or planting spies.”
Many folks on the right are
crying foul about how Rush Limbaugh was treated during his short-lived bid to buy the St. Louis Rams. Just askin' though, is this a case of what goes around, comes around. Guilt by association, being a victim of twisted facts and name-calling? Doesn't make it right what happened to Rush but...
from NBC's Luke Russert Today the House of Representatives passed the Airline Safety and Pilot Training Improvement Act of 2009, 409 to 11.
The bill requires that commercial airline pilots have an FAA airline transport license, which is given to pilots who have mastered flight training and have 1500 hours of in flight time. The bill also requires that the FAA teach pilots safety maneuvers in the event of a stalling. Also, airlines will now have to disclose on a passenger's ticket whether they will be traveling on a separate commuter jet company that is contracted by the larger commercial airline company.
Passed with huge bipartisan support, the bill was brought on by the terrible crash of Continental Connections Flight 3407 that occurred in February over Clarence Center, New York, a suburb of Buffalo. The crash of Flight 3407 is now believed to have been a case of pilot error, specifically brought on by the inexperience of pilots hired by Colgan Air, an airline that was contracted by Continental for the short flight from Newark, NJ to Buffalo, NY. CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Luke Russert At his weekly off camera pen and pad session with Capitol Hill reporters, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) would not guarantee that a healthcare reform bill would be passed by Christmas. When asked by NBC News if reform would pass by the holiday, Hoyer said, "Can I guarantee that? No. Do I think it will? Yes."
Responding to another question about healthcare reform timing and the Christmas holiday, Hoyer said, "Healthcare, we want to get that done, although I don't guarantee it, certainly we are going to get it done in the House. And I'm hopeful that during this next month and half we will be working with the Senate…once they decide what they are going to do and what we are going to do, we'll talk about how we are going to resolve differences that we have."
Hoyer also predicted that financial regulatory reform would start to take shape in the next month, “Barney Frank's committee is working and focused on regulatory reform. It's going to start marking up this week and it's going to be focusing on the administration's proposal in addition to other issues related to derivatives and credit default swap.”
CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Andrea Mitchell Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin today expressed skepticism about sanctioning Iran over its nuclear program. Putin made his comments in Beijing, in what will be widely viewed as a diplomatic rebuke to the U.S. and Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton . Clinton just wrapped up a two day trip to Russia and is now flying back to DC.
"There is no need to frighten the Iranians," Putin told reporters in Beijing after a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organizatin, the AP writes. "And if now, before making any steps [towards holding talks] we start announcing some sanctions, then we won't be creating favorable conditions for them to end positively. This is why it is premature to talk about this now," he said.
Clinton had her own difficulties over Iran on the trip, as Russia's hardline Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov restated his opposition to sanctions yesterday. Later yesterday, she met with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev , who did not publically disagree with his Foreign Minister. CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Luke Russert and Ali Weinberg Ike Skelton (D-MO) reaffirmed his support for General Stanley McChrystal's recommendation for a 40,000 troop increase in Afghanistan today, as President Obama meets today for a fifth time with his military advisers on devising a new strategy.
Speaking at a hearing on Afghanistan, Skelton said, "General McChrystal's recent assessment presents a sober, serious view of the situation in Afghanistan and the challenges we face," Skelton said. "He also presents one possible way forward, a fully resourced, population-centric counter-insurgency campaign that would protect the population, build the Afghan security forces, and work to improve the government. As my colleagues know, I am a strong supporter of this approach."
:
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright explains with President Obama has yet to make a decision on troop deployment to Afghanistan Skelton's support for McChrystal's plan puts him at odds with his counterpart, Senate Armed Services Chairman
Carl Levin (D-MI), who favors a focus on strengthening Afghan troops by sending in 2,000 to 3,000 American trainers. Skelton acknowledged suggestions by Levin and others that go against the McChrystal plan.
CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Luke Russert After their weekly caucus meeting on Capitol Hill, the GOP leadership attacked
President Obama and Congressional Democrats for not doing enough to bolster the floundering U.S. economy.
Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) said, “The American people want to see this Congress begin to focus on policies that will create economic growth and opportunities for working families small businesses and family farms.”
Pence continued, “The American people are tired of runaway federal spending, borrowing, bailouts and take-overs and Republican solutions will be built on the fundamental strength of a free market economy.”
Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) decried the emphasis on healthcare reform saying, “While Washington continues to focus in on this big government plan and healthcare debate, the American people are wondering, where are the jobs?”CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Whitney Bright At a medical technology conference this morning, Former President Bill Clinton commended yesterday's Senate Finance Committee vote on its version of the health care bill. He said, "We have to say thanks to Senator Baucus and Senator Snowe for getting this done." Clinton said he is sure that a bill will pass this time: "Republicans can't filibuster in the Senate. If there were 45 Republicans in the Senate, Senator Snowe's vote wouldn't matter."
Clinton stressed that passing health care reform is an economic necessity and that yesterday's vote is the beginning of a long process to passing a final bill. He referred to the defeat of his efforts to pass health care reform in 1994 -- a defeat due to partisan opposition: "This time the numbers are different. We have Snowe and if we don't lose any Democrats...then katy bar the door!"
From NBC's Kelly Paice As the Senate continues its debate on health care reform, Senator
Susan Collins (R-ME) released a statement today saying that she supports the efforts of Senator
Olympia Snowe (R-ME) to pass the Senate Finance Committee's health care bill yesterday; however, she expressed concern over the bill in general.
Sen. Collins said that the Senate Finance Committee's bill "represents a substantial improvement over the costly and flawed alternative approved by the Senate Health Committee as well as the House bills." However, she continued, "Nevertheless, the Senate Finance Committee's bill falls short of the goal of providing access to more affordable health care for all Americans. The goal of health care reform must be to rein in costs and provide consumers with more affordable choices. Yet, many individuals and families would be forced to pay more for their health care under the Finance Committee bill, and they would have fewer choices."
The senator also expressed her concern that the Finance Committee's bill could hurt small businesses and could discourage them from adding more jobs. Also, Sen. Collins said she is concerned about how the legislation would affect Medicare: "I am troubled that the legislation would cut nearly $500 billion from Medicare, which provides care for our oldest Americans and our most vulnerable citizens. ... It should not be the piggy bank for new spending programs when revenues are needed to shore up the current program."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice And Snowe It Goes... (Bet you thought we'd have a predictable weather pun. Gotcha!) As telegraphed, Republican Senator Olympia Snowe gave the president the lift he needed when it comes to health care. And her vote guarantees that the senators who will have the MOST influence on the final piece of legislation will be the moderate/conservative wing of the Democratic caucus. Harry Reid/Max Baucus/Olympia Snowe (perhaps Tom Carper) will shape this bill. Chris Dodd/Jay Rockefeller/Tom Harkin/Ron Wyden will struggle to have the same level of influence on this. It could produce a lot of angst with some progressives but the White House doesn't want to go the reconciliation route-that's a political nightmare. And as long as Snowe wants to play, the White House will give her the due. BTW, remember, Snowe is not a party of one... she represents about 8-15 moderate Democratic senators who want her support for health care as cover. From Evan Bayh to Joe Lieberman to even a Claire McCaskill and especially a Blanche Lincoln, Snowe's the unofficial Senate leader of the moderates. The thing to watch is whether there are any powerful progressive coalitions, say in the House, who can be as powerful a political force in negotiations as Snowe and her band of Democratic moderates? BTW, as for Snowe's place in the GOP, she told NBC's Matt Lauer that while she's heard the rumors of retribution, she's confident it won't happen. Think about the political reality: would the Senate GOP really want to look like it was ganging up on one of the senior women of its caucus? Her place is fine.
:
TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, about her vote to approve a sweeping health care reform bill. ***
Morning Meeting: The president convenes the 5th meeting of his war council on Afghanistan later this morning. By lunchtime today, he'll have spent 15 hours in the last three weeks delving into the details and scenarios on the war. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs was asked repeatedly yesterday what more the president needed to know. After 15 hours of meetings, is there really anything new for him to learn? Any new information? Gibbs did hint at one POTENTIAL reason for delay in a decision: the delay in certifying the Afghan election results. One other possible reason for delay? The need for the president to get everyone on the war council to OWN the final decision so that everyone from VP Biden to General Petraeus to Admiral Mullen to Secretary of State Clinton can defend the strategy either in public or behind the scenes with staff. We're guessing consensus isn't quite there yet.
***
Garden State Variety Candidate: Buffalo Springfield was right, there is something happenin' in New Jersey, what it is ain't exactly clear... yet. A new Quinnipiac poll has the race in a dead heat, Republican Chris Christie at 41%, Democrat Jon Corzine at 40% and independent Chris Daggett at 14%. This is good news for Corzine... for now. But don't sleep on Daggett. He's clearly a factor in the race now; getting mainstream media coverage (and endorsements) is a start. But can he win? 11 years ago, almost to the day, a new poll came out in the Minnesota governor's race showing third party candidate, Jesse Ventura, sitting at 15%. At the time, just like here in New Jersey, all the buzz in Minnesota was about how Skip Humphrey and Norm Coleman were beating each other up, while the national climate, by the way, wasn't good for either party as we were in the midst of the impeachment mess. Ventura, of course, in about three weeks time, went from polling in the low-to-mid teens to winning the race outright. All the ingredients are there for Daggett in New Jersey: both major party nominees have upside down negatives; 40% believe Christie is NOT honest/trustworthy while 48% believe the same about Corzine. The national climate has a "pox on both houses" feel to it. Now, New Jersey isn't Minnesota and Daggett has NO money to penetrate the NYC media market (which the latest Quinnipiac poll shows is a key weakness; he's stronger in the Philly market). But a break here (say a big endorsement from a well known/respected politician) or a break there (some sort of disastrous new scandal hitting either Corzine or Christie) and the floodgates could open. Daggett's VERY close to being seen as a credible alternative in political terms. Bottom line: there's too much volatility in the political landscape both in Jersey and nationally NOT to take Daggett VERY seriously as someone who could actually win this thing. Stranger things have happened, isn't that right Governor Ventura? Governor Schwarzenegger? Just sayin...
***
Wither Iowa? Maybe. The Des Moines Register 's Beaumont got tongues wagging this week when posited that Iowa might be losing its place as ground zero for presidential politics. Consider that by mid 2005, with three years to go until the next presidential race, prospective candidates Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Mitt Romney had each already visited the state several times -- Huckabee had made FIVE trips. This time around, though -- with the same amount of time between now and the next presidential election -- Minnesota Governor and expected candidate Tim Pawlenty is just now gearing up for his first Iowa trip. So what does this say about Iowa -- more specifically, Iowa voters? Well, John McCain finished a distant fourth in Iowa and won the nomination. Could it be the Iowa GOP is just too conservative? Possibly, but careful writing off Iowa... It's still a launching pad for lesser known candidates and in the case of a Tim Pawlenty, the state could be tailor-made for him to jump from the second tier to the first tier... Every four years, a debate begins about the idea Iowa will be less influential, it always proves untrue.
***
Hard Sell: AP 's Sidoti has a fascinating, potentially C.W.-setting analysis about the president, noting he has never shied away from touting his goals--big AND small--in public. There was the multi-industry bailout; a stimulus that cost hundreds of billions; and a hoped-for overhaul of the entire health care system. But then there's also been his joshing with Jay Leno and David Letterman, and his intervention in a local dispute between a white police officer and black college professor. Beyond questions of overexposure is the political quandary Obama's ubiquity and willingness to flex federal muscles may land him in, as polls show voters growing increasingly wary of government involvement in their everyday lives. Asks Sidoti, "is [Obama's] do-everything, be-everywhere leadership style in tune with the times?" Supporters would say Obama is simply trying to guide voters through his decision-making processes by appearing, well, everywhere to talk about them. But Sidoti writes that as former President Bush “got slapped around for being inarticulate, is Obama obnoxiously articulate?” Obama becomes the poster child—or president—for far-reaching government action simply by showing up and talking about it—and that could be a boon for Republicans come 2010. Obama’s constant presence is raising the ire of the GOP’s dispirited base, which could translate into big Republican vote against the president’s style during the mid-term elections.
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tale about an insurance company and a high-end user of the health care system. Doesn't put the insurance companies in the best light.a fight : campaign ads are already up in CO, NM and LA... More coming?The Hill on the Finance Committee’s vote yesterday: “Baucus’s move to the center frustrated liberal lawmakers and activists, who maintain the Finance Committee’s measure does too little to offer financial assistance for the uninsured. But the left is even more passionate in its displeasure that Baucus did not include a public option in his bill, unlike the other four House and Senate committees of jurisdiction.”
:
Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, discusses her "yes" vote on health care legislation and explain what would cause her to pull back her support once the legislation hits the Senate floor CONTINUED >>
What is the first step on the road to recovery if you are an addict: first admit you have a problem or something like that? Well, Afghan pres. Karzai is at least
acknowledging there was SOME fraud in the election there but he also said the results were fair. Well, ok then!
The New York Times has a good profile of the role VP Biden is playing in this debate; it includes its share of criticism of Biden.
The question of whether corruption will derail the efforts of any increased number of troops in Afghanistan is being
debated in the White House. “On Tuesday, one U.S. military official said discussions within the Obama administration are ongoing about whether it is even possible to "surge" enough troops to overcome the corruption and how crucial a legitimate government in Afghanistan is to the overall war strategy."
Um, Wow. Two weeks ago, the Russians
sounded like they were on board with sanctions. Now? Doesn't look as good at least based on Secretary of State Clinton's meetings with key Russian leaders this week.
This home video of Lindsey Graham's most recent town hall is
making the rounds on the left as clearly the audience isn't crazy about his decision to team up with John Kerry on the energy bill.
There's a reason why Treasury Secretary Geithner has hired some aides as simply advisers and NOT tried to name them to confirmable positions, the hearings wouldn't be pretty. profile of the Navy chaplain assigned to Camp David and therefore the closest thing the president has to a pastor. Carey Cash is the great-nephew of THAT Cash, the man in black, Johnny Cash.celebrates the holiday her department invented in a way only the homeland security secretary could: by visiting the Cyber Crimes Center.
:
Hardball's Chris Matthews takes a look at who made GQ's list of the 50 Most Powerful People in Washington. Ben Bernanke is “No.3 on [
GQ’s ] list of the 50 most powerful people in D.C. who aren’t named Obama or Biden.” He comes in just after White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel and Defense Secretary Robert Gates. But he’s ahead of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and National Economic Council Director Larry Summers, who are tied for No. 7. (It’s only a couple of years since Bernanke was No. 23 on the GQ list, three spots behind Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.)”
The Government Accountability Office is
trying to avoid hiring convicted criminals as census workers. That would have been a good tactic for the SNL “Land Shark.”
Florida Democratic Representative Robert Wexler, who represents a VERY safe Democratic district, is
resigning to take over a think tank focused on Mideast policy.
NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR: A tough new story about Chris Christie's
expense habits as U.S. Attorney.
Records shows that while acting as U.S. attorney, Christie often spent beyond federal guidelines on business travel, the
AP reports. The travel records, obtained by Christie's Democratic opponent Gov. Jon Corzine through a Freedom of Information Act, show that "Christie occasionally billed taxpayers more than $400 a night for stays in luxury hotels and exceeded the government's hotel allowance on 14 of 16 business trips he took in 2008." Christie claims he only opted to stay in more expensive hotels when cheaper ones were not available, the AP writes.
Meanwhile a new
Quinnipiac poll has the race a dead heat, Christie at 41%, Corzine at 40% and indie Chris Daggett at 14%. Today, we look at Daggett's support... A few interesting nuggets, he's getting 10% of Democrats, 7% of Republicans and 18% of independents, those breakdowns seem about right. He's OVER-performing in the Philly suburbs which could be an indication that those folks in the NYC suburbs haven't tuned in yet. Philly-Jersey folks are usually a tad more tuned into state politics than NYC-Jersey voters. BTW, among Daggett voters, Christie leads 40-33... so he's only pulling SLIGHTLY more from Christie than Corzine. Daggett's biggest obstacle: 73% don't know enough about him to offer up an opinion.
CONTINUED >>
The world is watching! Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger had to give his wife, Maria Shriver, a warning about her illegal use of a cell phone while driving. Pictures are
here .
FLORIDA: Fervor for Florida gubernatorial Alex Sink (D) is at a fever pitch, but few voters have the same enthusiasm or confidence in senatorial candidate Kendrick Meek (D)’s chances against current governor Charlie Crist. But Crist’s Republican challenger is also
gaining steam, some analysts say.
TEXAS GOVERNOR: Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison may delay her resignation a tad longer, so she
acknowledges . Many DC Republicans would prefer if she didn't resign at all, or at least until AFTER 2010.
Many key NFL execs are already drawing battle lines regarding the possibility of Rush Limbaugh becoming an owner. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell went public himself.
from NBC's Courtney Kube
The Army exceeded its goal of 65,000 recruits joining, reaching 70,045 accessions--a retention level of 108%. The Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force also slightly exceeded their recruiting goals, each equaling about a 100% retention.
from NBC's Athena Jones President Obama thanked the Senate Finance Committee for passing its version of a health care bill, saying it went a long way towards meeting his goals of making health insurance more affordable for those who don't have it and more secure for those who do.
He thanked Senator Max Baucus (D-MT), the committee's chairman, its members, and especially Maine Senator Olympia Snowe , who was the only Republican to vote "yes" -- along with the all of the committee's Democrats -- to pass the bill 14-9.
:
Now that the Baucus health reform bill has passed, how will President Obama want to fine tune the legislation? "I want to particularly thank Senator Olympia Snowe for both the political courage and the seriousness of purpose she's demonstrated throughout this process," Obama said.
The Finance Committee bill must still be merged with the bill passed out of the Health Committee over the summer before the full Senate can vote on a final bill. The House will also have to merge its three versions and vote on a final bill and then the House and Senate bills must be reconciled, so a health care bill is still probably several weeks away, though the White House hopes to have one on the president's desk before Congress leaves this year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly Paice Today the Senate Finance Committee passed its version of the health care reform bill by a vote of 14-9. Senator Olympia Snowe was the sole Republican to vote with all of the Democrats in approving the bill. Here's the breakdown:
Yeas:
Nays: Chuck Grassley (R-IA)
from NBC's Luke Russert Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said she expects that the House will vote on a healthcare bill by Thanksgiving:
"We are right on track, and I am hopeful that we will have a bill by Thanksgiving. Others say Christmas. Certainly this year."
On the public option, Pelosi said, "We will have a public option in the House bill as I have said." She continued, "We are considering several variations, we want to have the one that does the best job."
from NBC's Ken Strickland Max Baucus 's version of the health care bill. Said Sen.Olympia Snowe the lone Republican who voted in favor of it: “Is this bill all that I want? Far from it. Is it all that it could be? No. But when history calls, history calls. And I happen to think the consequences of inaction dictate the urgency of Congress to take every opportunity to demonstrate its capacity to solve the monumental issues of our time.”
***UPDATE*** Where does the bill go from here? This week Majority Leader Harry Reid (and the White House) will start the process of merging the Finance Committee bill with the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions committee bill which passed over the summer. The biggest difference between the two: the HELP Committee bill has the public option; the finance bill does not.
Once those bills are merged into a new bill, it will have to be sent to the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee of Taxation for a new cost estimate. Once that "score" is completed, the bill is ready to go to the Senate floor.
from NBC's Ken Strickland Olympia Snowe said she will support the committee's health care overhaul bill.
****UPDATE**** Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) has announced he wil vote yes on the bill. Wyden has been very critical of the bill in the past. Now, Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), who has also criticized the bill, is essentially the only unknown vote.
Also, President Obama thanked Senator Snowe for voting in favor of the bill during a press conference with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero , saying she has been "extraordinarily diligent."
from NBC's Pete Williams Jeffrey Skilling , who's appealing his conviction on charges of misleading investors about the shaky health of the company.
He claims his trial was tainted by extensively negative news coverage, and he says the government misused a fraud law against him. The court will hear the case early next year.
The other major Enron figure, company founder Ken Lay, died in 2006 -- after a jury convicted him but before he could be sentenced.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice *** Today's Senate Finance Forecast? Cloudy With A Chance Of Snowe: It's the 60-vote (million dollar) question. We write, of course, of Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe. What will she do? Obviously, she votes for this bill, right? This is the best deal she'll ever get and she wants to be part of the process, right? This isn't in doubt, right? She got everything she wanted, right? Nothing will put a damper on the expected passage of the Senate Finance Committee health care reform bill other than a result that does NOT include Snowe voting in the affirmative. She's the cover the White House needs, NOT for bipartisanship, but for wooing Democrats like Ben Nelson and Tom Carper and Blanche Lincoln and Evan Bayh. Snowe is today's most powerful politician in Washington when it comes to health care. Forget Harry Reid, Max Baucus or Barack Obama, her vote today will signal how the process of merging the House and Senate bills go forward. If she votes no, then the power center shifts from the middle to the progressive end of things inside the Democratic Party on this issue. But if she votes yes, then look for Reid to use the Finance Committee bill as the basis for the merged bill in the Senate. Snowe might not be the most charismatic senator but she certainly has a flair for the dramatic.E Tu, Karen? Meanwhile, the White House and Democrats are still reeling from the last minute attack by the insurance industry on the Finance Committee bill. So nervous was the White House that the insurance industry attack could scuttle the fragile coalition they've been building in the Senate, they responded VERY aggressively. White House health care policy director Nancy Ann DeParle was dispatched to take on the head of the insurance industry trade association, Karen Ignagni. Both appeared last night on “The News Hour." DeParle said she was “disappointed the industry had contrived a report like this at the last minute, right on the eve of a historic vote.” DeParle had held meetings with health insurers last week, and told NBC yesterday that she was “blindsided” by the report. Citing what she called an “egregious example of the analysis,” she said a prediction that a high-cost excise tax on so-called Cadillac insurance plans would be borne by Americans was untrue, and that AHIP was aware of this. “Well, they say themselves -- this is sort like of an analysis where you said, we all know the earth is round, but, if it were flat, look what it would look like. It's absurd.“ Ignagni was asked in a separate interview if not putting a tax on high-value plans would encourage people to choose less generous plans, to which she responded, “well, it may do that.” She also cited cost containment as a necessary component of insurance reform across the medical industry spectrum. Can the White House use this attack to galvanize Democrats for the Baucus bill? Perhaps, at least that's what they are counting on today. Paging Dr. Machiavelli, Senate Caucus Room 2, Dr. Machiavelli, Room 2?Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Just how sensitive is the White House to the increased GOP rhetoric about jobs? Very. In the latest in a series of missives between House Minority Leader John Boehner and National Economic Council president Larry Summers, Boehner asks, “Where are the jobs? In February, Mr. Summers himself said Americans would see the effects of the stimulus ‘almost immediately’ but since it took effect our economy has lost roughly three million jobs and more families and small businesses are struggling than ever before.” Last week, Boehner and other Republican leaders sent Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a letter decrying the “unsuccessful stimulus” and outlining ideas for job creation, to which Summers responded citing “a substantial change in the trend of job loss.” So Summers shot back in a lengthy response letter that included a pledge to look at some of the GOP ideas on tax credits but also included some shots at the GOP for what Summers believes was the fiscal mismanagement of the last eight years. Still, Summers’s engagement is both a sign the White House is going to fight back on the attacks but also is ready to start quietly looking at new legislation in an attempt to stimulate job growth. Barbs Heavy In Light Trading: So the two candidates for Virginia governor traded "barbs." Ok, so they didn't actually throw sharp spiky things at each other but both tried to hit at the other's biggest vulnerability. Republican nominee Bob McDonnell barely answered ANY question without accusing Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds of wanting to (or voting for) tax hikes. Deeds, while not DIRECTLY citing the infamous thesis on women, kept harping on how McDonnell had undergone a political makeover. The good news for Deeds, he seemed comfortable going on the attack (some had questioned his killer instinct) and the better news for him, most folks will READ about this debate, not watch it. If the Virginia gubernatorial televised debates got the same level of coverage as the presidential debates, would Deeds even have a chance? McDonnell is still in the driver's seat and didn't make any major gaffes. All of the post-debate coverage is about Deeds and that's simply because he's the guy behind as many are actually wondering if this thing is completely slipping away. States To Watch In 2010 -- Our 12-state series concludes today with a supposedly deep blue state (New York) and a supposedly deep red state (Texas) though there are signs of life for both minority parties. Texas: The marquee race of the cycle could very well be taking place in Texas as the Republican primary for governor has the potential to be one for the ages. A sitting senator taking on the longest serving governor in the country. Does it get any better than this? Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison in one corner vs. Republican Rick Perry in the other. Hutchison has the challenge of trying to convince the state's Republican electorate she's conservative enough to represent the party. Perry's trying to disqualify her on that front but the bad news for him is this primary seems to be more about personalities and on that score, Hutchison probably has the edge. The fallout from this primary could have implications on the Democrats. Hutchison may resign her senate seat (seems VERY likely) giving Democrats a decent shot, because of the quirky winner-take-all special election. Moreover if Hutchison then LOSES the primary, Perry could be VERY vulnerable in the general (perhaps against the brother of CBS' Bob Schieffer). What a year in Texas! Maybe First Read should open up an Austin bureau!New York: Prostitutes. Cheating spouses. Cocaine. Backbiting. Infighting. Dirty tricks. Even a coup. It’s not an episode of Desperate Housewives; it’s the devolution of New York politics. Eliot Spitzer’s resignation in May of last year -- after being named Client No. 9 for frequenting high-end prostitutes -- set off a chain of events that threatened to undermine Democrats’ stronghold in what has become one of the bluest of blue states. Since then, the state government shut down after Democrats defected, and Spitzer’s replacement (David Paterson), unable to take control in Albany, has seen his approval numbers dive into the toilet. The White House and state Democrats have urged him to step aside in 2010 to clear the path for Andrew Cuomo, the state attorney general and son of former Governor Mario Cuomo. If Paterson, whom polls show losing to Rudy Giuliani for governor, stays in and it gets nasty, the Pandora’s Box of racial politics threatens to open a fissure among state Democrats and could weaken the brand statewide. With redistricting at stake in a state with several competitive Upstate House seats, Democrats can’t afford to that. It does, however, look like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand will hold on after her controversial appointment -- unless someone like former Gov. George Pataki jumps in. BTW, Pataki seems more likely with every passing day.here to sign up for First Read emails.Facebook and also on Twitter .
Paging Dr. Machiavelli, Senate Caucus Room 2: The insurance industry report on the Senate Finance Committee bill
continues to make waves this Tuesday. "White House and Senate officials hinted at the possibility of legislative payback for releasing a report Democrats described as deeply flawed and self-serving. At the very least, officials said, it will help Democrats close ranks behind the Finance Committee bill, which had come under fire from the progressives as too moderate."
More: "They also predicted liberal lawmakers will go harder after the insurers, perhaps by proposing a cap on premiums or solidifying support for the government insurance plan.
“They have opened themselves up,” said a senior Senate Democratic aide. “It is an incredibly stupid strategic blunder. If you are going to fire a shot like this, you fire a good shot.”
The best shot at a public option? "One proposal
attracting considerable attention originated with Senator Thomas R. Carper (D-DE) and would allow states to decide whether to create their own insurance plans or join forces to provide coverage in collaboration with neighboring states. Other Democrats want to take the state-based approach a step further, creating a national public plan that states could join. Carper, a moderate Democrat, said he is not sure he is prepared to go that far. "I'm just chewing on that one," he said."
CONTINUED >>
White House senior economic adviser Larry Summers decided to engage House GOP leader John Boehner on the issue of the economy.arguing that Republican presidents are to blame for deepening the nation's deficits with "fiscal irresponsibility." In the 1980s, the nation's debt as a share of the overall economy nearly doubled, he wrote. Under President Bill Clinton, who appointed Summers to high-ranking Treasury posts, that trend reversed itself, he said.
The New York Times speculates the Clinton-Gates caucus on the Obama war council is, perhaps, the most influential one when it comes to the president's thinking.Bloomberg paints a colorful picture of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, and the dynamic between his country and the U.S: “Even his garments projected a message of unity: a grey lambskin cap worn by ethnic Uzbeks and a green or purple cape of northern tribesmen over a Western jacket and Afghan tunic…
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin supposedly doesn't do foreign policy and yet he's in China on an official
visit to cut a deal on energy. Hmmm. President Medvedev is simply the ambassador to the world but when a deal involves money for the Russians, Putin steps in?
Looks like the Obama administration has a
Plan B for Iran -- the bunker buster bomb; a project that has been sped up.
Speaking of that PLAN B... Secretary of State Clinton is still
working on plan A... getting the Russians on board with Iranian sanctions.
Clinton will
meet with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev today “ amid claims that Washington has agreed to stop criticizing Russia's human rights record in return for improved relations.”
An example of the old adage, "elections have consequences:” The Washington Post looks at how the government’s various regulatory agencies are a lot more active now than they were the previous eight years.
The AP examines the president's travels and notices the swing-state tilt, that said, this weekend marks the FIRST time the president sets foot in non-competitive 2012 states: Louisiana and Texas.launch a new conservative foreign policy group.web video ...
***UPDATE*** The DNC responds to the formation of Liz Cheney and Bill Kristol's new foreign policy group: " Last fall, the American people overwhelmingly rejected a radical foreign policy authored by Dick Cheney that alienated our allies, emboldened our enemies, depleted our resources, distracted our focus and made the nation less secure. The Cheneys lost that debate and their approach was deemed a failure. The Cheneys can continue to focus on securing their sullied legacy if they want to. But, the President will continue to focus on securing the country," said DNC National Press Secretary Hari Sevugan.
“More than 100 Democratic House members have yet to contribute a penny of their obligations for the 2010 election cycle to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,” the National Journal writes. This suggests many incumbents are facing competitive races next year, in which case they are exempt from paying. But some who don’t face serious challenges, including some safe liberals in blue Northeastern states, also haven’t paid, leading some to suggest dissatisfaction within the party. Among those who haven’t paid but are exempted are fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats, almost all of whom face tough re-election campaigns. “But privately, the frustration against better-positioned members, including members of the Progressive Caucus and the Congressional Black Caucus, is palpable.”
New York: Representative Charlie Rangel, the embattled Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, will
face a former campaign director in the 2010 primaries. It's always amazing how the ballot box can take care of problems the House leadership (no matter the party) fails to confront. Take this primary challenge very seriously.
NEW JERSEY: In the New Jersey gubernatorial race, independent candidate Chris Daggett has been gaining attention and traction. With a spike in the polls and an increase in campaign donations, "Daggett's campaign aides believe that the combination of the tax plan, the first debate and months of nonstop attacks between Corzine and Christie has created 'a perfect storm' that has helped the campaign catch on,"
Politico writes. In an interview with Politico, Daggett said, "I think there is a large group of people who are very uneasy and unhappy about the state of affairs in New Jersey, and I think I'm tapping into that disillusionment and disappointment." Daggett's Democratic challenger Gov. Jon Corzine is welcoming Daggett’s increased visibility with open arms, as it was when Daggett jumped in the polls that Corzine was able to grab his first lead against Republican challenger Chris Christie. On the other hand, in an interview with the New Jersey Star-Ledger, "Christie dismissed Daggett's candidacy," Politico reports. Despite his increase in popularity, Politico writes that few political analysts believe Daggett can pull off an outright win.
USA Today reports that the two major-party candidates in New Jersey's gubernatorial race are in a "dead heat" going into in the last few weeks before Election Day. The national parties are closely watching this race as a possible indicator for how 2010's congressional races might pan out. The recession has hit the state hard increasing its unemployment rate to 9.7 percent and causing an estimated $8 billion deficit, according to USA Today, all while New Jersey residents are paying the highest annual property taxes in the nation -- issues the candidates have needed to address in order to reach out to voters. Republican nominee Chris Christie has said that if elected he will "increase property tax rebates and cut income tax rates," but has yet to outline how he will accomplish such proposals. Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine has turned his focus to social issues, as well, in order to reach out to the state's Democratic base, USA Today writes. Corzine, Christie, and independent candidate Chris Daggett will meet to debate on Friday.
VIRGINIA: In their first statewide televised debate, Virginia's gubernatorial candidates went head-to-head yesterday; however, the
Richmond Times-Dispatch writes that the debate "broke little new ground on the issues that have defined their increasingly bitter contest." Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds referred to his Republican challenger Bob McDonnell as a "smooth talker," while McDonnell attempted to link Deeds to President Obama's struggling policies, the Times-Dispatch reports. Deeds rebuked McDonnell's claim that the Democrat has no plan to fix the state's transportation system and accused McDonnell of lying about Deeds' record. McDonnell continued to vow that his "no-new-taxes approach" can work and after the debate responded to Deeds' accusations that McDonnell has lied, saying that it is "really below the dignity" of a gubernatorial candidate to accuse his opponent of lying, the Times-Dispatch writes.
CONTINUED >>
And now Al Sharpton has
given the Limbaugh-could-buy-the-Rams story more legs. Is this the best use of the Rev's time?
Some congressmen
arrange meetings with home-state voters during a week long vacation. But for Rep. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), the only constituents with whom he associated during his recent “Survivor”-style stay on a deserted Pacific island were 126 crabs, each of which had its own personality, like the one that bit the congressman on the toe. No, he didn’t start talking to a volleyball and yes, he’s been asked before.
by NBC's Ken Strickland The Senate Finance Committee will vote tomorrow on its version of the health care reform bill. When the committee gavels in at 10 a.m., senators will have an opportunity to question Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf and Joint Committee on Taxation Chief of Staff Thomas Barthold before making a vote.
The timing of the vote depends on how long senators choose to question Elmendorf and Barthold, who are responsible for the bill's official cost estimates. They will address senators' questions on potential impacts on the economy, businesses and taxes. All committee members will have the opportunity to question the CBO and JCT.
by NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Libby Leist Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton has arrived in Moscow for talks with Russian officials, most importantly on how to punish Iran if Iran does not live up to the inspection and disclosure commitments it made ten days ago in Geneva.
While in Russia Secretary Clinton will meet with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov , who has been a principal opponent of sanctioning Iran, and President Dmitry Medvedev , who signalled to President Obama a new openness to the possibility of sanctions if Iran does not comply. A senior official traveling with Clinton said she wants to emerge with a "meeting of the minds on how we move forward if Iran fails to live up to its obligations. There are different forms of pressure that we've talked about including sanctions."
Pressed on where Russia now stands, the official said: "Nobody believes that sanctions are an optimal outcome, we would rather avoid them, and deal with the nuclear issue but that did seem to be a step in the direction of agreeing with us and others that if Iran doesn't comply then there needs to be some consequences."
According to the senior official, Secretary Clinton will talk to Lavrov and Medvedev "about what specific forms of pressure Russia would be prepared to join us and our other allies in if Iran fails to live up to its obligations." Asked about Iran's pledge in Geneva to ship most of its declared low-enriched uranium to Russia for reprocessing, the senior official said, "We'll want to go through that with the Russians too and make sure that moves forward too."CONTINUED >>
by NBC's Ali Weinberg Nancy Ann DeParle told NBC's Chuck Todd today that she felt "blindsided" by the health insurance industry's study today cricitizing what it concluded would be rising premiums under proposed reform plans.
"I'd spent a couple of hours with insurance industry folks last week, and yes I did feel blindsided," DeParle said. "I did feel we were working constructively."
The study, conducted by the firm PriceWaterhouseCoopers, concludes that consumers will bear the brunt of a tax on pricier insurance plans, despite the predictions of the Congressional Budget Office and independent economists that insurance companies will respond to the tax by finding ways to lower costs. In a conference call with reporters today, Karen Ignagni , the president of America's Health Insurance Plans, the trade group that issued the report, said that the study was commissioned because AHIP officials "were concerned with what we were seeing by way of increased costs."
Citing the estimates of cost reduction, DeParle said "the CBO believes that the reforms that are going to be put in place will bring costs down over time," adding: "they say the high cost tax on high cost plans will only be borne by plans for a limited amount of time."
DeParle and will appear together tonight to discuss health care reform on The News Hour With Jim Lehrer , broadcast on PBS stations across the country.
by NBC's Ali Weinberg Karen Ignagni, the president of insurance lobby America's Health Insurance Plans, said that an AHIP-sponsored study released today warning of increased premiums under current health reform proposals did not represent a rift with the White House after almost a year of working to find compromises on health care legislation.
Relations with the Obama administration are "very consistent with the beginning of the year--well, now more than a year ago," Ignagni said in a conference call with reporters.
Ignagni also defended PriceWaterhouseCoopers, the firm who conducted the study and whose methodology has already been questioned by the White House and leading health care reporters who say it makes far-flung assumptions about changes in the health care system in response to new policies.
"PWC is a world class firm," Ignagni said. "They have a stellar reputation and they have proceeded to do this analysis in a thorough and comprehensive way."
One objection to the study is that it does not recognize insurance companies' expected driving down health insurance costs to avoid a proposed tax on expensive plans.
White House assistant press secretary Reid Cherlin said the study "conveniently ignores critical policies that will lower costs for those who have insurance, expand coverage and provide affordable health insurance options to millions of Americans who are priced out of today's health insurance market or are locked out by unfair insurance company practices."
Ignagni reiterated the insurance industry's main concern about health care reform: getting all players in the medical world to find ways to bend the cost curve. She stressed the need to "encourage all the other stakeholders to participate in a broader effort so that they can too lend a hand and get costs under control in a much more effective way than we would," adding, "We don't see comprehensive cost control in any legislation."
From NBC's Kelly Paice The National Law Journal , Craig said, "I have no plans to leave whatsoever," and he described his relationship with the president as "excellent."
A man with experience ranging from the U.S. State Department to special impeachment counsel to President Bill Clinton, Craig was one of the first people Obama picked to be a part of the White House team. However, reports have been brooding since August that he will soon resign. The National Law Journal reports that administration officials "second-guessed Craig's support of a one-year deadline to shutter Guantanamo." In his interview with the Journal, Craig said he was "certainly not the point man on Guantanamo" and that the National Security Council was in charge of instituting the plan; however, this contradicts remarks Craig made in a Washington Post article last month that quotes him saying he managed the closure "on a day-to-day basis" in February, The National Law Journal writes. Craig said that, "he coordinated and explained executive orders on Guantanamo" and then moved on to other issues.
In Craig's defense, the Journal reports that Attorney General Eric Holder Jr. said "criticism of Craig has been unfair": "To the extent that people blame him for the delays, they also need to give him credit for the progress."
Other issues that have plagued the lead counsel's reputation include his advice to release Justice Department memos describing interrogation methods along with photos of abused detainees; the White House agreed, then back-pedaled on its decision and stopped the material's release. On Friday, Craig upheld his advice as credible and said that what he told the president "was right on the button." Craig recognized that compared to previous counsel, he has "been more involved in national security matters," making some of his critics' views understandable. The National Law Journal writes that despite his critics, Craig's office has received "high marks" for the swift confirmation of now Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, and for now he is here to stay.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice Indigenous People's Day? The Beltway loves to examine the image of living politicians and leaders but let's take a step back and ask ourselves if anyone has had a worse 30 years in American history than Christopher Columbus? At the rate his image is going, who thinks the idea of "Columbus Day" will disappear within our lifetimes? But we digress. Speaking of Columbus Day, Washington still celebrates it, sort of, by not really working and the President, with the family home from school, has no public events.Sounds of Sunday: On the Sunday morning talk shows, several lawmakers who disagree on strategy in Afghanistan found common ground in how the war in Iraq affected Afghanistan. On NBC’s “Meet The Press,” Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) said, “the mistake I believe was made in Afghanistan was taking our eye off the ball and not going after bin Laden—we had him where we wanted him—and instead shifting our major focus to Iraq.” Senator Lindsey Graham, also appearing on “Meet The Press,” said, “I think Iraq did affect Afghanistan. Iraq, whether it should have happened or not, became the central battle. We need to de-surge there to prevent a loss.” That was the common ground but the two disagreed on the troop question with Levin making public his POTENTIAL opposition to more combat troops. Then there's Senate Intelligence Chair Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who, on ABC, seemed to sum up the mixed messages the Democratic Party is sending on this issue. On the one hand, she said: "I don't know how you put somebody in who was as crackerjack as General McChrystal, who gives the president very solid recommendations, and not take those recommendations if you're not going to pull out." On the other, she said, "Should we stay there for 10, 12 years? ... I don't think so," she said, arguing that this is why a major force increase and a switch to a counterinsurgency strategy, as happened in Iraq in 2007 and 2008, is necessary. One key question for the president, can you increase troop levels and NOT promise to stay another 5-10 years? A Graham of McCain: Anyone else noticed that Lindsey Graham is more likely to sound like John McCain these days than John McCain? He, more than McCain, this year has shown a tendency to do two things McCain made famous over the last decade: buck his party (see Sonia Sotomayor vote) and talk bluntly about former President Bush. Take yesterday on "Meet The Press." Graham also faulted Bush for being too close to Afghan President Hamid Karzai: “As the Karzai government failed, President Bush, in my view, did not push him enough. You had ambassadors on the ground, and military commanders going to Karzai, pushing him very hard on governance, and President Bush would talk to Karzai and, quite frankly, undercut the effort.” Graham added : “President Obama is smart to push Karzai.” It's a pretty damning statement for a Republican to say the previous president undercut efforts by the rest of the American team in Afghanistan, at least on the civilian/diplomatic side of things. While McCain has become a more predictable foe of this administration (check out his voting record, btw), Graham, himself close to McCain, has, at a minimum, set himself apart a bit as an unpredictable critic. Speaking of McCain, here's what he said on CNN on Afghanistan: ”I'm not trying to rush the president. I think the president has to be deliberate, because this is the most difficult decision that any president makes to send young Americans into harm's way. But we do have the strategy, we do have the leaders, and we have a successful strategy that worked in Iraq that can be adjusted to the situation in Afghanistan."In It To Win It (The War): Speaking with Ann Curry on NBC's "Today Show" this morning, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged patience as the president devises a new Afghanistan strategy with military leaders, lawmakers and advisers. "When we recommend to the president what we believe he should do, we're going to be all in," Clinton said, adding that she guaranteed "all listeners that this process will result in a very well thought out approach." She also acknowledged the two "extremes" of the Afghanistan debate -- those who advocate a withdrawal from the country and those who favor a large troop surge, saying, "Neither extreme is really focused on the situation as we are." When asked about rumors of her being marginalized on important foreign policy decisions, Clinton said, "I find it beyond any realistic assessment of what I'm doing every day... I believe in delegating power." BTW, in one change from the Bush administration in these national security deliberations, it appears this president is determined to have a united front on this strategy going forward. One of the reasons for the long deliberation is that he wants everyone on that war council to "own" the new strategy, from Biden to McCrystal and everyone in between. President Bush didn't always have consensus and that led to political problems down the road. Insuring A Debate: Check out the most recent Gallup poll on the president's job rating, it's at 56%, a two month high. And you know what coincided with that bump? (Yes, we know, the Nobel Prize). But the bump also coincided with the quietest week on the issue of health care that we've had since, well, since the last time the president had an approval rating in the Gallup poll over 55%. Don't look for another quiet week, though, thanks to a new study by the insurance industry which argues that the Max Baucus-led Senate Finance Committee legislation would cause health care costs to go up FASTER than under the current system. The report is likely to become a quick GOP talking point, but will it unite the Democrats? The Obama administration is fighting the study, but will everyone on the left? Before this study, Baucus had been accused of being too close to the insurance industry which is why, some argued, he didn't put a public option in his plan. Will this insurance industry study give the right or the left more fuel? The study, conducted by PriceWaterhouseCoopers and commissioned by AHIP, will be a debate driver for the next few days both for the work itself and because it appears it's a sign the insurance industry is NOW a full-fledged opponent of the Obama administration's reform efforts.Rush Unleashed: In an interview with "Today's" Jamie Gangel, conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh denied that he is the leader of the Republican Party, a title most frequently given by Democrats looking to characterize the controversial talker as a major player. He did, however, give his recommendation for the future of the GOP--don't try to reach across the aisle, like 2008 nominee John McCain: "The Republican party is not a party of independent liberal moderates. It should be unabashedly conservative. It's going to continue to lose until it realizes that." Calling his critics "impotent and powerless," Limbaugh said that his eyebrow raising statements like those about wanting President Obama to fail are meant to "tweak the media." Said Limbaugh, "I know how to yank their chain; I know how to send them into insanity." Asked whether he was moved by an African-American being elected president, Limbaugh said "Yeah, but I got over it very quickly. His skin color doesn't matter to me. His policies matter."
Conservative radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh talks about his position in the Republican party, his role in John McCain's failed presidential bid and what he thinks of the Obama Presidency. Whither the Independents: How will the 2009 gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia be decided? Look at the independents -- both the candidates and voters. Over the weekend, the Newark Star-Ledger endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett calling the choice "less a rejection of [Democratic] Governor Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie than a repudiation of the parties they represent, both of which have forfeited any claim to the trust and confidence of the people of New Jersey." Corzine couldn't have said it better himself (well, at least the part that discredits Christie). And in Virginia, a "cooling to the dominant Democratic establishment" in neighboring DC means that fewer people who voted for Obama in 2008 are getting fired up about Creigh Deeds. Many of those voters are political independents who are shifting to Republican nominee Bob McDonnell, who leads Deeds overall in a recent Mason-Dixon poll, 48-40%. BTW, no poll yet has had Deeds ahead... Good news for him, at least THIS one doesn't have McDonnell over 50... but...States To Watch In 2010: Our look at the big races of midterm election continues today with two BIG BLUE states. This is numbers 7 and 8 in our 12-state series. The previous six: CO, OH, FL, NH, NV, AR, MO and PA.California: What makes this state particularly noteworthy for next year has more to do with the people who are running for office, rather than how competitive the races might turn out to be. Republicans have two prominent female businesswomen running for the two top jobs in the state: Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman is making a bid for governor, and former Hewlett-Packard head Carly Fiorina is expected to challenge Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. Yet to win the GOP gubernatorial nomination, Whitman has a race on her hands against California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former Representative Tom Campbell -- and Whitman's past voting record (or lack thereof) has become a big issue in this contest. BTW, Fiorina is no shoo-in for the GOP nod either. On the Democratic side, we could very well see a gubernatorial primary between 71-year-old former Gov. (and presidential candidate) Jerry Brown and 41-year-old Gavin Newsom, the mayor of San Francisco. That's right, the return of Jerry Brown is more real than anyone outside the Golden State realizes.Illinois: Since Barack Obama's election, it’s been hard to describe Democratic politics in Illinois as anything but chaotic. The Blagojevich circus and investigation, the Burris debacle -- all of it has led to an up-for-grabs Senate race to fill Obama’s old Senate seat. Republicans got their desired candidate in Mark Kirk (although he will have to face a crowded GOP primary field). On the other hand, Democrats and the White House didn’t get theirs: Lisa Madigan, who despite being a front-runner for either the Senate or governor instead decided to run for re-election as attorney general. And now there’s an actual Democratic primary between state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and the Urban League’s Cheryle Robinson Jackson, who’s gotten the big-bucks backing of EMILY’s List and could draw on significant Chicago African-American support. (She's also a former spokeswoman for Blago.) And don't discount David Hoffman, who has some key Obama campaign players on his team. Kirk's entry into the Senate race means his suburban Chicago seat is now a toss up, according to the Cook Political Report. And the governor’s race might see a tough Democratic primary between current Governor Pat Quinn (who succeeded Blago) and state Comptroller Dan Hynes.here to sign up for First Read emails.Facebook and also on Twitter .
The Washington Times has an interesting story claiming Pakistani intelligence officials are complaining about a lack of intel-sharing by the U.S.dealing with the ISI of Pakistan.interviewed by BBC radio during a visit to Europe, was asked if she was proud to stand alongside Karzai as Afghanistan's president. Clinton said Karzai had been "very helpful on many fronts" but made it clear that the United States, which has 68,000 troops in the country, expected more from him.
:
Chuck Todd discusses the tough choices faced by the White House on the Afghanistan War. "We are very clear that if this election results in his being re-elected, there must be a new relationship between him and the people of Afghanistan, and between his government and governments like yours and mine which are supporting the efforts in Afghanistan to stabilize and secure the country," Clinton said.
CONTINUED >>
Citing the "national mood" of anxiety about unemployment,
Atlantic Media Group political director Ron Brownstein said on “Meet The Press” that a job stimulus package is on the White House's horizon. "There is discussion about a job creating--a, a tax credit for people who create jobs. The problem is it's expensive to do that in a meaningful way. And the next area of the debate will be if we go down the road of trying to create a jobs incentive tax credit, do you take the money away from already allocated dollars for the stimulus or do you simply make the deficit larger?" Brownstein added that while a decision is not imminent, "they're beginning to discuss this."
Tens of thousands of gay-rights activists came to Washington D.C. this weekend for the National Equality March, as key votes on same-sex marriage are coming up in the district and Maine, the
Washington Post reports. “Attendees expressed complicated feelings about Obama. Nearly every person interviewed said he or she had voted for him, but many people said they were disappointed by what they see as a lack of action on key gay-rights issues,” like gays serving in the military and the Defense of Marriage Act, which Obama decided to uphold. On Saturday night, the president spoke at a fundraising dinner for the Human Rights Campaign, saying in unequivocal terms that he would end the military’s “don’t ask on tell policy” but without many specifics.
The Post ’s Jonathan Capehart: “[Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid] have done a good job of letting Obama take all the heat from the gay community for inaction in Washington. But if the shameful ban on gays serving openly in the military is to end, if gay and lesbian couples are to share in the rights and responsibilities of marriage that would come with the demise of the Defense of Marriage Act, Congress must overturn them, sending bills to Obama. The president has made it clear that he would sign them. It's time for Pelosi and Reid to follow through.”
The New Republic ’s Jonathan Cohn analyzes a PriceWaterhouseCoopers study commissioned by America’s Health Insurance Plans that warns of the high costs of family premiums under proposed reform plans. As the study is sanctioned by a health insurance group, however, Cohn writes that it makes some assumptions that are not widely held.
“I suspect PriceWaterhouseCoopers is right about a few things, like the trouble with a weak individual mandate. Plus it's always possible CBO and the economists are wrong, either about the excise tax or other elements of reform. With more time to analyze it and consult experts, I can give a more definitive take.
But since the report is already circulating widely in Washington and will, I'm sure, be making headlines on Monday, it's worth keeping in mind that it comes with some pretty questionable assumptions--and that it was commissioned by a group with an agenda of its own.”
Last week was the quietest week on health care since, perhaps, June. Don't look for another quiet week thanks to the insurance industry.
CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal examines the Republican strategy of turning Nancy Pelosi into the Newt Gingrich of the Democratic Party.Politics Daily 's Jill Lawrence notes that THIS Congress is unpopular for doing stuff... unlike previous Congress' who have been unpopular for doing nothing.feuds and the tea party activists are playing a big role, potentially.debating how closely to align themselves with President Obama. At issue is whether his oratory and fundraising gifts are enough to outweigh the polarizing effect he may have in red-state Congressional districts.
NEW JERSEY: The Dean, David Broder, um,
weighs in on the Chris Christie weight issue and says the jabs have no place in politics.
The Newark Star-Ledger gives Jon Corzine the nod, sort of, in the governor's race. How? By endorsing the indie candidate.
From the editorial: "New Jersey needs radical change in Trenton. Neither of the major parties is likely to provide it. Daggett’s election would send shock waves through New Jersey’s ossified political system and, we believe, provide a start in a new direction.
It would signal the entrenched leadership of both parties — and the interest groups they regularly represent — that an ill-served and angry electorate demands something better."
The New York Times writes that independent candidate Chris Daggett’s “campaign is causing concern in both parties." Although his poll numbers are on the rise and his proposal to cut property taxes is increasingly gaining attention, The New York Times says, "Mr. Daggett is far more likely to play the role of spoiler than to pull off an upset." The Times points out that Daggett has only spent $1 million compared to Corzine's $16.8 million and Christie's $5.4 million.
The New Jersey Star-Ledger reports that as the state's Democratic gubernatorial candidate Governor Jon Corzine has relied mainly on his own money to fund his campaign and his Republican challenger Chris Christie has counted on lots of family and friends to kick in monetary support, "special interests and those with a personal stake in the outcome continue to play a large role in the support of both of the top candidates." Governor Corzine has received backing from "hundreds of state employees" and "Christie has been able to bank on backing from law firms and financial companies as well, including Cantor Fitzgerald, where his wife is employed," the Star-Ledger writes. The Star-Ledger further reports that more than $230,000 of Christie's campaign money "came from his home town of Mendham and his brother, Todd Christie," while "Corzine has received $190,000 from organized labor, nearly $60,000 from other political campaigns and $75,500 from business interests."
CONTINUED >>
The NFL players union has
made their potential opposition to a Rush Limbaugh St. Louis Rams ownership group public.
The White House does not
view Fox as a news network.
LGBT-rights supporters, in Washington, DC for this weekend’s National Equality March, have quite a weekend ahead of them.
Starting this morning several breakout sessions will address an array of issues concerning the state of LGBT Americans. The Saturday topics include the following: a seminar on lobbying tactics for a repeal of the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy of gays in the military; creating gay-straight alliances in schools and colleges; an HIV/AIDS rally and vigil; and a reception benefiting the Matthew Shephard Foundation.
Saturday evening, President Obama will deliver a speech at the 13th annual Human Rights Campaign National Dinner, an event held in concert with the rest of the weekend’s activities. President Obama’s appearance will feature his first major statements on LGBT rights since June, when he extended some rights to federal employees’ same-sex partners, a move seen by many gay rights activists as a failure to follow through on his campaign pledges.
The march on Washington, the capstone event of the weekend, will take place on Sunday, as marchers will trek past the White House to the Capitol’s west lawn.
After the march, a rally at the Capitol will feature more than 30 speakers -- including the march’s co-chairmen, longtime gay rights activist Cleve Jones and Lt. Dan Choi , who was kicked out of the Army earlier this year after saying he was gay. Also set to speak is NAACP chairman Julian Bond , who has often likened the gay rights movement to the civil rights movement, and Judy Shephard, the mother of a gay teen who was brutally murdered in Wyoming in 1998.
From NBC's Kelly Paice With the latest Washington Post poll showing waning enthusiasm among Virginia's Democratic voters and Election Day less than a month away, gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (D) seems to be trying out a new campaign strategy—one that worked well for now-President Barack Obama . Today, Deeds’ campaign announced its "Hope and Opportunity Tour," in which local officials will gin up support for the nominee’s plans to stimulate the economy and promote education. Incorporating Obama’s message of hope, which brought about legions of fervent supporters, could be seen as Deeds’ attempt to harness similar voter sentiment. However, Deeds will not be participating in the tour.
In a conference call with reporters today, Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey also played up recent national Democratic support and said the campaign is grateful to have the “extraordinary efforts of the party” behind them.
Starting on Monday, the three-day tour is planned to include ten stops through rural Virginia, Abbey said. He suggested that Deeds' rural Virginian roots allow him to "understand the struggles, especially the economic struggles, of rural Virginia," and that Deeds values the opportunities a quality education can offer—the two main issues of the tour.
by NBC's Bobby Cervantes today urged Americans to support the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, a new federal entity intended to shield consumers from predatory lending and establish and enforce regulations on banks and mortgage brokers.Barney Frank (D-MA), who introduced the bill over the summer, has said the Office of Thrift Supervision and Comptroller of Currency would merge to create the new agency--a move which those offices have criticized. According to the Wall Street Journal, the bill would also strip goverment funding allocated to the Federal Reserve, another critic of the plan, for its consumer-oversight responsibilities, including mortgage regulation. Frank said the Financial Services Committee would vote on the CFPA's creation some time next week.
Got a politics question? NBC's Chief White House Correspondent and Political Director Chuck Todd will be answering questions today at 5:30 P.M. ET.
Click here for the chat.
by NBC's Ali Weinberg Creigh Deeds' statements earlier this week about excess Washington spending raised some eyebrows about whether he was trying to distance himself from the White House. Well, a few announcements this morning indicate he's doing quite the opposite. The Virginia gubernatorial candidate weighed in on President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize award, with a statement saying: "While President Obama’s work has just begun, we’ve already seen what progress can be made by reaching out to the global community with an open hand rather than a closed fist."
Sounds like a pretty blatant attempt to dispel any ambiguity about his relationship with the president. And, using familiar buzzwords, the Deeds campaign announced the launch of his "Hope and Opportunity Tour," a junket that will tout Deeds' "strong record of job creation and investing in education, and his plan to jump-start Virginia's economy." This afternoon, the Deeds campaign and Virginia Democratic Party will hold a conference call with reporters previewing the tour.
From NBC's Kelly Paice and Athena Jones President Barack Obama said he is "surprised and deeply humbled by the decision of the Nobel committee" in honoring him with the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize.
by NBC's Ali Weinberg Despite a few domestic responses to
President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize win, most reactions to the news are coming in from foreign leaders and officials, shedding light on the implications of the award with regard to relations abroad.
The Republican party seized the news as an opportunity to criticize Obama's domestic record. In a statement, RNC Chairman Michael Steele said: "One thing is certain – President Obama won’t be receiving any awards from Americans for job creation, fiscal responsibility, or backing up rhetoric with concrete action.”
Two former U.S. leaders and Nobel Peace Prize laureates also weighed in. 2007 winner and former vice president Al Gore called the win "extremely well-deserved" and former president Jimmy Carter , who won in 2002, released a statement saying the award "is a bold statement of international support for his vision and commitment to peace and harmony in international relations."
Angela Merkel, who made no secret of her frosty relations with President Obama's predecessor, said, "There is still much left to do, but a window of possibility has been opened." ****UPDATE**** Michael Steele's criticism of President Obama's Nobel nod. A Republican rebuttal follows soon after.
DNC's Brad Woodhouse : "The Republican Party has thrown in its lot with the terrorists — the Taliban and Hamas this morning — in criticizing the President for receiving the Nobel Peace prize. Republicans cheered when America failed to land the Olympics and now they are criticizing the President of the United States for receiving the Nobel Peace prize — an award he did not seek but that is nonetheless an honor in which every American can take great pride — unless of course you are the Republican Party. The 2009 version of the Republican Party has no boundaries, has no shame and has proved that they will put politics above patriotism at every turn. It’s no wonder only 20 percent of Americans admit to being Republicans anymore – it’s an embarrassing label to claim."
RNC's Gail Gitcho : “Like most Americans, the DNC can’t think of one achievement that the president has accomplished, so they resort to their predictable response and standard playbook of demonizing those who disagree with them. First they call Americans concerned over health care ‘rabid extremists’ and ‘angry mobs.’ Now, when challenged to answer the question of what the president has accomplished, Democrats are lashing out calling Republicans terrorists. That type of political rhetoric is shameful.”called the win "extremely well-deserved" and former president Jimmy Carter, who won in 2002, released a statement saying the award "is a bold statement of international support for his vision and commitment to peace and harmony in international relations." CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, Kelly Paice and Huma Zaidi Razvi *** He Won What? In about 90 minutes, President Obama will make his first public comments since being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The Rose Garden statement comes after the White House was stunned by the news just after 5 a.m. The citation for the prize seems to indicate that the Nobel committee decided to award the president the prize for what he's promised to do, rather than for any actual accomplishment. From the citation: "Obama has as president created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts." Also in the citation was a veiled swipe at the previous American president. "Thanks to Obama's initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting." Aides tell the president will use his remarks at 10:30 to recognize the "gravity of the challenges" the Nobel committee cited and will call on the world to "redouble efforts on those issues," including nuclear non-proliferation.How To Respond: The White House has definitely been caught off guard; What's not clear is whether the president will personally travel to Oslo to receive the award and what he'll do with the $1 million+ prize money. (No truth to the rumor that speechwriters Jon Favreau and Ben Rhodes will get a commission.) For the president's supporters, this award serves as a reminder that the world is watching and the president's election was something that could have a global impact. What will be interesting to watch is how the president's detractors will use today's news. Last week, some critics seemed to relish the president's inability to go on to the world's stage and lobby on behalf of the America for the Olympics. What do those critics say now? It's likely many on the right will dismiss the award as a political decision by a group that has used the Peace Prize to make political statements in the past. Some notable Bush critics have won a Nobel Prize in recent years including Jimmy Carter, Al Gore and Paul Krugman. It'll be interesting to see how far some will go in their criticism. As for the president himself, this award seems to only add to the burden of expectations he's carried ever since he was elected. Sometimes there's a feeling that folks with this president want to rush to write history before it's been made. After all, on the international front, there's a laundry list of incomplete accomplishments: GITMO, Mideast Peace, de-nuclearized Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq withdrawal...The Costs of War: One of the most contentious issues surrounding the health care debate is how much a final bill would cost the country. Interestingly, the same attention has not been given to spending on the Afghanistan war. Press Secretary Robert Gibbs made a salient point about the Afghanistan war at yesterday's briefing: "We don't have unlimited money." Consider these numbers: Factoring in the Senate defense spending bill passed this Tuesday, Afghanistan spending since October 7, 2001 totals $300 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. And in the fiscal year that ended in September, the U.S. spent $5 billion per month on the war. Yesterday, House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI) said that an increased commitment in Afghanistan would cost almost a trillion dollars over the next decade. And let's not forget about Iraq: a CBO report released Wednesday estimates that if the U.S. adheres to President Obama's Iraq timetable (an end to combat operations by August 2010 and all troops out by 2011), spending on military personnel, fuel and transportation declines to $0 by Fiscal Year 2013. Zero is a good number, yes, but then there's the "reconstitution” costs of repairing equipment damaged in the war and returning it to the United States, estimated at $51 billion in 2010 and $3 billion in 2013. Just some numbers to keep in perspective, as Congressional Democrats and Republicans debate the $829 billion Senate Finance Committee health care bill.Yes Virginia, A Republican Is The Frontrunner: The Washington Post's new poll of the Virginia Gubernatorial race suggests that within the commonwealth, confidence among key Democratic voting groups is down again when it comes to Creigh Deeds. First, only half of Virginians who say they voted for Obama are certain to vote at all in the gubernatorial election next month, versus two-thirds of those who supported John McCain; no wonder Deeds, despite his chatter about the national climate hurting him, is trying to get Obama to campaign for him. And while African Americans were 20% of the presidential vote in the state, only 12 percent said they would likely vote in the gubernatorial election. A similar trend is happening among younger voters, as a 21% presidential turnout rate drops to an 8% estimate next month. And while 25% more Obama voters said they "enthusiastically" supported their candidate versus McCain's supporters, that majority is now reversed, with 35% of Bob McDonnell supporters voicing enthusiasm about their nominee and only 20% for Deeds.Missouri: As with Arkansas, there is just really one race to watch here: the Senate contest, which will most likely pit Democrat Robin Carnahan (daughter of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan and former Sen. Jean Carnahan) against Rep. Roy Blunt, the former No. 2 House Republican. Given how close the presidential contest was in this state last year (McCain narrowly won it) and how competitive the 2006 McCaskill-Talent race was (McCaskill won it, 50%-47%), Missouri could very well be the top destination for political reporters next year. This will be a 2 point race... no matter what...Pennsylvania: The Senate race features a party-switcher (Arlen Specter), a competitive Democratic primary (Specter vs. Joe Sestak), and a well-known Republican waiting in the wings (Pat Toomey). There's an open governor's seat to replace the term-limited Ed Rendell. And there are at least two competitive House races, including one involving the ethically challenged Jack Murtha. Pennsylvania was a ballyhooed battleground state in last year's presidential election, but Obama won it by a whopping 10 percentage points (54%-44%). Can a Toomey or a Jim Gerlach/Tom Corbett -- the two Republicans running for governor -- improve on McCain's showing in this Key(stone) state?here to sign up for First Read emails.Facebook and also on Twitter .
The Washington Post delves into the growing C.W. out of the White House deliberations on Afghanistan in regards to the Taliban: they cannot be destroy, only defeated.Gen. Stanley McChrystal actually included three different options, the largest of which was for more than 60,000 troops, the Wall Street Journal reports.Washington Post , “McChrystal's distance from this month's high-level discussions illustrates both the determination of the new commander in chief to reshape the White House's relationship with the military and the complexity of the decision Obama must make.”David Obey (D-WI) warned yesterday that an expanded commitment in Afghanistan would cost almost a trillion dollars over the next decade, Roll Call reports. ““I just think we need to think this through … we need to apply the same intellectual rigor to this as we are to health care,” Obey added.”
President Obama today became the third sitting president to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, "his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples," the Norwegian Nobel Committee said today. The Washington Post writes, “The committee said it attached special importance to Obama's vision of, and work for, a world without nuclear weapons.” The award had previously been awarded to Presidents Theodore Roosevelt in 1906 and Woodrow Wilson in 1919, and Jimmy Carter in 2002, while former Vice President Al Gore, along with the U.N. panel on climate change, won it in 2007.propose new policies that would expand the roles of state and local governments, which could produce heated debate in Congress. "The administration is only eight months old and many of the policies will evolve in heady congressional debates, fierce lobbying battles and deep in the recesses of the government’s regulatory agencies. But the new tone itself may go a long way toward reorienting the relationship between state and federal powers."Michael Arcuri (D-NY) “Arcuri said the lawmakers got ready for Team White House by beating up on a team of lobbyists last week. But he complained about Obama's home court advantage. ‘It's his court. He wouldn't come play in our gym,’ Arcuri teased,” writes the New York Daily News .looks like the White House wishes it had included a few women in last night's presidential pickup game.
Politico 's David Rogers wrings his hands over the state of the U.S. Senate. It's a classic "good ol' days" piece that could have been written 10 years ago.
Key interest group heads are not happy with the bill
Max Baucus produced . Both the American Medical Association and the insurance industry trade association are on record raising some concern.
House Majority Leader
Steny Hoyer met with Minority Whip
Eric Cantor yesterday to talk about health care reform. Hoyer had challenged top Republican congressmen to name the areas of bipartisan agreement on health care amounting to 80 percent, a figure President Obama had cited in his joint address to Congress and which several Republicans have said they agree. After the meeting, Hoyer said, “As I told you last week, I have not found the 80 percent yet, but I am still going to look.”
Thirty Senate Democrats, including
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV),
Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and
Arlen Specter (D-PA)
sent a letter to Majority Leader
Harry Reid (D-NV) yesterday demanding that a final health care bill include a public option.
Per NBC's Ken Strickland, there are some Democrats who are strong supporters of the public option who did not
sign the letters. Senators like
Chuck Schumer (D-NY),
Tom Harkin (D-IA), and
Chris Dodd (D-CT) are members of the leadership and wouldn't be expected to sign letter addressed to the Reid. They will also be at the negotiation table and may not have signed the letter because they want to be seen as honest brokers.
But even if you included the leadership members on the letter, that would push the number of supporter to about 36. That's a majority of the caucus, but still well short of the 60 needed to defeat a filibuster.
CONTINUED >>
Second Stimulus? The Washington Post reports on the job stimulus chatter growing in Washington.The Wall Street Journal reports that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has "kept frequent contact" with banking industry heads -- far more than expected and enough that "could prove tricky for an administration that has tried to distance itself from the industry."The New York Times takes a look at the Federal Housing Administration, a government low-down payment mortgage provider, which is starting to look a lot like Fannie Mae, and whether the body needs its own bailout.
The House ethics committee announced yesterday that it will expand its months-long investigation into Ways and Means Committee chairman Charlie Rangel ’s (D-NY) “tangled personal finances” to include his August disclosure of more than $500,000 additional assets. While a Rangel dismissed the decision as “nothing new,” Republicans said “the news provide further proof that Rangel needs to step aside.” The New York Post on the investigation: “The panel said it has issued nearly 150 subpoenas, interviewed 34 witnesses resulting in 2,100 pages of transcripts, reviewed and analyzed more than 12,000 pages of documents, and held more than 30 investigative meetings.”The New York Daily News reports that the panel is "'highly likely' to wrap up its work before the end of the year after taking Rangel's testimony. The strongest sanction could be an embarrassing but essentially toothless recommendation for censure. Rangel's ultimate fate as head."Washington Post 's Eugene Robinson warns House Democrats they ought to be more pro-active in condemning Charlie Rangel's behavior.Nancy Pelosi may owe her job to Rangel, but she needs to press the ethics committee to do its work without fear or favor. And she needs to contemplate the prospect of explaining to voters, come next fall, why the affluent man who sets their taxes didn't pay his. "
NEW JERSEY: Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gov. Jon Corzine for the first time released his plans to close the estimated $8 billion deficit in New Jersey. Corzine's plan would include implementing "a smaller contribution to the state pension system, a 2,000-employee reduction in the state workforce and the possible continuation of an income tax surcharge on the wealthy,"
The New Jersey Star-Ledger reports. His Republican opponent, Chris Christie, has called the governor out on "suffocating" New Jerseyans with increased taxes. "There's not the quick fixes that people would like to see," Corzine said, "That's why I want another shot at it."
Yesterday marked the first and only debate for the three candidates in New Jersey's lieutenant governor race.
The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the candidates "exchanged sharp-tongued, spirited words...clashing on issues including health care, taxes and the Republican gubernatorial candidate's weight." Hitting the issue of health care early on, the candidates were able to highlight a key issue on which the two gubernatorial candidates clearly differ: Democratic candidate Jon Corzine supports mandates for insurance companies to cover common health screenings, such as mammograms, while Republican candidate Chris Christie disagrees with the mandates and "wants to offer cheaper, no-frills insurance policies to people who are uninsured," The Inquirer reports. This gubernatorial election will be the first in New Jersey to include a lieutenant governor. Corzine is running with Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Bergen) and Christie is running with Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno.
Despite Democratic nominee Jon Corzine's personal war chest, Republican opponent Chris Christie's campaign has actually been on the air with more ads than Corzine,
thanks to a little help from the Republican Governors Association. Corzine has purchased more actual time on the airwaves, as his ads are 30 to 60 seconds long versus Christie's 15-second spots, but Christie leads Corzine with total occurrences of ads, 5,219 to 4,806.
VIRGINIA: In a new
Washington Post poll, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell "has taken a commanding lead" over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for the Virginia Statehouse, the Washington Post reports. McDonnell pulled ahead with 53 percent to Deeds's 44--a nine-point spread compared to the four-point lead McDonnell carried in mid-September. "Deeds's advantage with female voters has all but disappeared, and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents," the Post writes. Further, the Post reports, "By double-digit margins, voters say that he [McDonnell] would better handle virtually every major issue facing Virginians, including transportation, taxes, education, the state budget and the economy. Only on issues of special concern to women does Deeds hold a tepid 47 to 41 point advantage."
CONTINUED >>
from NBC's Luke Russert The House Ethics Committee issued a statement today saying that it would expand its investigation into the activities of House Ways and Means Committee Chairman
Charlie Rangel, (D-NY) specifically on his revised personal financial disclosure forms that he submitted in August of 2009.
The Committee’s statement was as follows, “"The Committee on Standards of Official Conduct voted unanimously on October 8th, 2009, to expand jurisdiction of the investigative subcommittee inquiry regarding the Matter of Representative Charles B. Rangel to determine if Representative Rangel violated the Code of Official Conduct or any law, rule, regulation or other standard of conduct applicable to his conduct in the performance of his duties or the discharge of his responsibilities with respect to all Financial Disclose Statements and all amendments filed in the calendar year 2009 by or on behalf of Representative Charles. B Rangel pursuant to Title I of the Ethics in Government Act."
The statement continues, “The investigative subcommittee has collaborated in a bi-partisan manner in the performance of its duties and obligations. To that end , the investigative subcommittee to date has: authorized the issuance of close to 150 subpoenas; interviewed approximately 34 witnesses resulting in over 2,100 pages of transcripts, reviewed and analyzed over 12,000 pages of documents; and held over 30 investigative subcommittee meetings.”CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Athena Jones and Kelly Paice At today's press briefing, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said that the president's meeting with his national security team tomorrow will focus "a great deal" on Gen. Stanley McChrystal 's assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and would likely be the first time they address the general's resource request.
In response to whether the cost of sending more troops to Afghanistan is something that is weighing on the president's decision about future U.S. involvement in the country, Gibbs said, "Well, it's something we certainly have to be mindful of. We don't have unlimited money. We certainly don't have unlimited troops."
Gibbs repeatedly spoke about the differences between al-Qaeda and the Taliban, saying the former represents "a global, transnational jihadist network" that had successfully attacked America and was plotting to do further harm, while the Taliban represents a much more local threat. Gibbs made clear, "You've got al-Qaeda--again, a global network--versus the Taliban, something that's located exclusively in Afghanistan."
He also said the meetings in the Situation Room had touched on the degree to which the Taliban gaining strength in Afghanistan would lead to a safe haven for al-Qaeda.
by NBC's Ali Weinberg As we wrote in First Thoughts this morning,
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) faces a tough re-election season, trailing Republicans
Danny Tarkanian and former state GOP chairwoman
Sue Lowden in recent polls. A third Nevada Republican might also have a chance at the seat, but not because of his political experience.
John Chachas , a Nevada-born, Wall Street-bred investment banker with Lazard, is gearing up for a run next year for Reid's Senate seat. According to the
New York Times , Chachas "hasn't lived in Nevada for more than 20 years" and has never voted in Nevada. Appearing on
"Face to Face," a talk show hosted by Nevada's dean of political reporters,
John Ralston , Chachas announced that he is putting his own money into his campaign, and also told Ralston that he has raised over $350,000 from donors. The New York Times reported last month that Chachas has been tapping into his sources in the East, holding fundraisers in New York and the Hamptons, with other events scheduled in cities like Atlanta. Chachas has said that in order to be a viable contender, he must raise between $15 and $20 million.
From NBC's Luke Russert The "Matthew Shepard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act," that was attached as an amendment to the current Defense Authorization Bill has passed, 281 Yea to 146 Nea.John Boehner (R-OH) said the act was, "radical social policy that is being put on the Defense Authorization bill on the backs of our soldiers because they probably can't pass it on its own."
from NBC's Luke Russert Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) responded to a claim by the National Republican Congressional Committee that Afghanistan Commander General Stanley McChrystal should “put her in her place.”
“It’s truly sad that they really don’t understand how inappropriate that is. I am in my place, I am the Speaker of the House the first women Speaker of the House and I am in my place because the House of Representatives voted me there. But that language is something I haven’t heard in decades,” Pelosi said.
Many Democrats have decried the NRCC comment as sexist and an unfair attack. So far the NRCC has been unrepentant. According to the Wall Street Journal, the NRCC said today that Pelosi, “would rather make party politics a higher priority than our national security” and that the Speaker “self-righteously believes she is better suited to craft our country’s military policy.”
from NBC's Athena Jones lunch with business leaders today is intended for him "to hear directly from the private sector about key issues including the health of the financial sector, health insurance reform, climate change policy and job creation." The White House also confirms the attendence of the following CEOs: Jeff Bezos, Amazon.com; Lew Hay, Florida Power & Light; Antonio Perez , Eastman Kodak; and Irene Rosenfeld , Kraft.
from NBC's Athena Jones The White House is distributing a letter from former President George H. W. Bush's Health and Human Services Secretary, Louis W. Sullivan, expressing his hope that this administration succeeds in passing health care reform.
Statement by Louis W. Sullivan, M.D.
"As a physician and a former Secretary of Health and Human Services, I've worked in our health care system and participated in the health reform debate from the front lines. Many administrations, including ours nearly 20 years ago, have tried to fix our health care system. In the time since I left office, approximately 10 million more Americans are uninsured, an increase of 27 percent, which is unacceptable. The longer we wait and ignore the problems in our system, the larger that number will grow. Fortunately, today we have a real opportunity to pass health reform and change the path we're on. I am particularly pleased with the increased emphasis on prevention of injury and illness, and the promotion of healthy behavior that is in the legislation under consideration. It's time for members of both parties to work together to pass a bill that will fix our system, help those who have health care keep it, help those without health care to get it, and improve the health care and the health status of all Americans."
Louis W. Sullivan, M.D.
from NBC's Mike Viqueira The Congressional Black Caucus has sent a letter to House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi, expressing support for Representative
Charlie Rangel, the embattled chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and founding member of the caucus.
Madam Speaker:
As Members of the Congressional Black Caucus, we support our colleague Charlie Rangel, Chairman of the Committee on Ways and Means, and condemn partisan attempts to ignore the well-established, bipartisan congressional ethics process.CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly Paice PolitiFact reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has requested that the bill be available online 72 hours--three days--before a vote. However, Republicans aren't buying it: "Three days is an embarrassment," said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN). "It shows how embarrassed these Democrats are of their bill. They know this health care bill is radioactive with the American public and if they give the American public more than three days to read this bill, all hell might break loose and they might never get this bill actually passed and done." Instead, Rep. Bachmann called for a three month timeframe to review the bill.
from NBC's Ken Strickland Harry Reid announced on the Senate floor this morning that the Finance Committee will vote on a final version of its health care bill on Tuesday.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, Kelly Paice and Huma Zaidi Razvi ****** It's The Economy... Sandwiched between a few Afghanistan-centric days, today is all about the economy, as the President meets with business leaders over lunch, and later with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. These meetings come after a closed-door discussion yesterday with Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, where job stimulus was the hot topic. Today is also hoops-heavy for the president. He'll stop by the White House basketball court to watch the National Naval Medical Center Marine Wounded Warrior basketball team play. And in the evening, after meetings with Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, it's back to basketball, as Obama takes the court with cabinet secretaries and members of Congress, including Geithner, Education Secretary Duncan, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, and Representatives Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Frank Kratovil (D-MD). BTW, the folks at the WNBA won't be pleased to know that the president doesn't have any women playing in his pickup game.
*** Can't Spell Cobble Together Without CBO: It took two and half months longer than planned (and actually the clock is still ticking on passage) but Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus did it, he got the president a health care bill that reduces the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office. How can you tell if bill could pass and is potentially the president's silver bullet? Check out Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell's reaction to the CBO scoring: “This partisan Finance Committee proposal will never see the Senate floor since the real bill will be written by Democrat leaders in a closed-to-the-public conference room somewhere in the Capitol. The real bill will be another 1,000-page, trillion-dollar experiment that slashes a half-trillion dollars from seniors’ Medicare, raises taxes on American families by $400 billion, increases health care premiums, and vastly expands the role of the federal government in the personal health care decisions of every American.” Did you catch that? The GOP spin on this is that Baucus' bill won't be "the real bill." And he's right, to a point, there will be some changes, i.e. some form of a public option, but the bar's been set by Baucus on the deficit front. And considering the initial reaction the Baucus bill is receiving on the Hill, don't be surprised if the White House makes this bill the standardbearer.
*** Second Stimulus? For the second day in a row, the Congressional Dem leadership team visited the White House but the topic wasn't Afghanistan, it was jobs. And while you won't hear the actual phrase "second stimulus" out of the Democrats or the White House, it does sound like something is coming. Pelosi said that they are "committed to take further action on behalf of the millions of Americans out of work or at risk of losing their jobs, their savings and their homes.” The questions now are what, and how big it will be. Republicans are having a field day over this news as they are using this chatter this week about the possibility of some sort of jobs package as a way to attack, again, the $800B stimulus bill passed last spring. Privately, those inside the White House will concede the blew the messaging on that bill by pushing the "jobs" aspect of it but it was "in the now" decision, i.e., they needed a talking point to get the bill passed. Now many wish they never uttered the word "jobs" in connection with that first stimulus because it makes the job of whatever they are going to sell this fall that much harder. That said, the administration has no choice. As Dem pollster Mark Penn wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal, "no statistic is more vital in human or political terms than unemployment." If the jobs situation stays dismal, and Democrats don't do anything about it, they risk looking downright uncaring--dangerous especially coming into an election year.
*** No Good Deeds... Sports columnist Jim Murray once wrote, "The charm of baseball is that, dull as it may be on the field, it is endlessly fascinating as a rehash." It's kind of like political campaigns, sometimes it's hard to watch in the moment but it's fun to rehash, unless you're rehashing before the end of the campaign! That said, just one day after Virginia Gubernatorial Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds spent crucial time at a candidate forum coming up with excuses for losing, which included an indirect shot at the national party and landscape, the DNC kicked it into high gear on a number of fronts, including attempting to galvanize the base nationally about the race. So score one for Deeds? As inarticulate as he was about his political problems, which included no finger pointing at himself, it did appear to have the desired effect on the DNC. That said, it is stunning that the national GOP is so much more united in their support for Bob McDonnell.
*** Rangel-ing a Majority: While Democrats voted overwhelmingly to table a resolution to strip House Ways and Means chairman Charlie Rangel of his post, it was interesting to check in on the Democrats who voted with the majority of Republicans and the few Republicans who voted with the majority of Democrats. Mississippi Reps. Gene Taylor and Travis Childers joined the minority in voting against Rangel. But check out some of the Republicans who voted against their caucus: From Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) to Peter King (R-NY). Overall, more Republicans voted with the Democrats than the other way around. The real test for Rangel and the Democrats will be after the Ethics Committee finishes its investigation.
*** Continuing our states to watch in 2010 series, numbers 5 and 6 are below. The first four: CO, OH, FL and NH.
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Nevada: The stories emerging out of this presidential battleground state are almost endless: Another Democratic majority leader (Harry Reid) is in danger of losing his Senate seat; his son (Rory Reid) is running for governor in a race that could go either way; the incumbent GOP governor (Jim Gibbons) is going through a divorce over allegations of infidelity and even by a lawsuit by a woman claiming that he assaulted her in a parking garage; and there's a competitive House race (freshman Democratic Rep. Dina Titus is one of the GOP's top targets). Speaking of sons, one of the top Republican contenders for Harry Reid’s Senate seat is Danny Tarkanian, whose father is the towel-gnawing former famed UNLV Runnin’ Rebels basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Both Danny Tarkanian and former state GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden -- who’s exploring a bid -- lead Reid in recent polls. In the race for governor, Gibbons will face a tough challenge from District Court judge Brian Sandoval, a former state attorney general, in the primary. BTW, the Reid dynasty aspect is, perhaps, the single most under-examined aspect of 2010.
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Arkansas: If Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire are the states to measure the health of the Democrats in Year Two of the Obama Era, then Arkansas could very well be the state to gauge whether Republicans can finally win in a state where it SHOULD be winning but HASN'T -- outside of the presidential election. The marquee contest in the state is Sen. Blanche Lincoln's re-election. If Republicans can't find a way to win here, no matter how well Lincoln may have inoculated herself in this political climate, you've got to wonder when Republicans will begin to win office in a state where Obama won just 39% of the vote last year. On the other hand, if Republicans CAN defeat Lincoln, that will tell us a great tell a great deal about the Democrats' brand in the South, even in a state like Arkansas where it's had plenty of success (with Lincoln, Mark Pryor, and Mike Beebe). Right now, Republicans' preferred candidate to face Lincoln is state Sen. Gilbert Baker, but he must first deal with an increasingly crowded GOP field. No other state in the South will do a better job telling the story of 2010 in this region than Bill Clinton's home state.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 26 days
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A new
USA Today/Gallup poll taken on Tuesday shows that the debate over what to do in Afghanistan has the country split, too. "Eight in 10 say weakening terrorists' ability to stage attacks on the United States is 'an important reason' to stay, but they are less certain that progress is being made, especially in establishing a stable democracy."
While the White House praised a $7.5 billion Pakistan aid package passed last week, the bill was met with scorn from Pakistani political and military officials averse to appearing dependent on foreign aid and beholden to American interests. “For its part, the cash-strapped Pakistani government of President Asif Ali Zardari appears caught between its desire for closer relations with the United States -- and the resources that relationship promises -- and the political liability it entails,” writes the
Washington Post. Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani tried to shade the bill as Pakistan’s power play, saying: “It is the legislation of the U.S. Congress, and it is we who have to decide whether to accept it or not."
The
Washington Post has an in-depth look at the White House’s decision-making process on the Afghanistan war, beginning with a March strategic review in Afghanistan that resultedin no recommendation of a troop increase. Skepticism soon grew about then-combined forces leader General David McKiernan not requesting more troops, then in mid-April McKiernan was replaced with Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who authored the current troop request. One interesting nugget: “A military official familiar with McKiernan's thinking said his request for 30,000 troops last fall was tempered by a belief that the Bush White House would reject it outright if he asked for more. As it was, Bush tabled the request, leaving it to Obama.”
CONTINUED >>
The
New York Times says that the CBO's analysis of the Baucus health care bill now allows Baucus to "push for a panel vote within the next few days, and sets the stage for Democrats to take legislation to the floor for debate by the full Senate this month." Most importantly though, "Several wavering Democrats and one Republican, Senator Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, had said they would be influenced by the budget office report."
Senate Finance ranking member Chuck Grassley (R-IA) criticized the committee’s bill, whose cost estimate was released yesterday, “saying the legislation should be judged on more than simply whether it is deficit-neutral.” In a statement released yesterday evening, Grassley said, “A celebration of the deficit effects masks who pays the bills. This package includes hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes and fees. Most Americans with health insurance will see their premiums increase.”concerned that a final bill lacks vital cost-cutting provisions, like “a tax on high-cost insurance plans or a tough Medicare cost-cutting panel. Without them, they fear Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf will restate his July assessment — that the House bill increases the long-term cost trajectory for health care rather than cuts it.” Representative Jim Cooper (D-TN), a leading member of the Blue Dog Coalition, said, “The big picture is the president’s veto threat. He said he would veto a bill that added a dime to the deficit in the short term or the long term. It would be embarrassing if we send him a bill that doesn’t do that.”
"Democrats are still divided over core elements, including whether to create a public health insurance plan and how to pay for the overhaul. The hospital industry, a key ally, says the latest bill from the Senate doesn't expand health insurance broadly enough to meet the terms of its pledge to contribute $155 billion to the effort," reports the Wall Street Journal . And, "Republicans cautioned that the price tag is still so high that it will scare off potential supporters." CONTINUED >>
New CBO numbers on the deficit have Democrats pushing the president for more stimulus measures.
The Los Angeles Times on more stimulus: “Obama and the Democrats are caught in a double bind. Having underestimated the severity of the recession early this year, they face tough choices on how to ease the financial pain of millions of jobless workers and ensure that the recovery continues. Meanwhile, they are under relentless attack from Republicans who argue that the $787-billion stimulus package approved last winter has sent the deficit soaring while failing to bring down unemployment. That leaves the administration with the sticky challenge of finding effective ways to buoy the economy without appearing to propose more stimulus.”
Can Republicans make Charlie Rangel the 2010 poster-boy for Democratic misconduct? House Democrats blocked Republicans from forcing Rangel to resign his chairmanship of the Ways and Means Committee, leaving it up to the ethics committee to continue their investigation into the allegations against him.
The New York Post : “Embattled Rep. Charles Rangel yesterday beat back an attempt by Republicans to force him to step down as Ways and Means Committee chairman. The Democrat-controlled House voted 246-153, mostly along partisan lines, to banish the anti-Rangel resolution to the Ethics Committee, which has been investigating the Harlem lawmaker for more than a year. By sending the legislation to the panel rather than simply voting to kill it on the House floor, Democrats provided themselves some political cover from accusations that they helped protect the accused tax cheat.
At the start of the Iraq war in 2003, the U.S. military worked with neighborhood advisory councils to gain information about extremists and insight into Iraqi culture. Now that U.S. troops are
disengaging from metropolitan areas, however, “local representatives say they are feeling powerless and abandoned. The Iraqi government has taken no steps to hold elections for the councils, and the Baghdad provincial council is culling them of members it deems unqualified or unfit for service. The looming demise of the local councils -- at least as the Americans established them -- is an ominous sign of the brand of democracy that is likely to reign in Iraq as the Americans depart, council members say.” Iraqis say they now fear these leadership voids will be filled by a powerful few.
While Republicans may be hoping for a 1994-replay, the
Wall Street Journal details the "little-understood forces that suggest a full repeat of 1994 is unlikely."
The Hill reports that President Obama will make a "rare cameo appearance" at a fundraiser this month for Bill Owens, candidate for the NY-23 special election. "Obama has been reticent to get involved in congressional races — especially the House — and has more often than not had Vice President Joe Biden do the political legwork for him … Obama’s more active role in Owens’s campaign could be a sign that things are changing. Republicans have stood firmly against Obama’s agenda, and perhaps now he feels it won’t undercut his bipartisan message as much if he helps his party out."
VIRGINIA: The Washington Post reports that yesterday national Democrats increased a showing of their support for Virginia gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds (D)--the same day the Wall Street Journal reported, "the White House is backing off support for Deeds." From thousands of emails sent out yesterday through Pres. Obama's Organizing for America to new ads on Facebook, support for the Democratic candidate was stepped up by his national party supporters. The Post writes that Deeds' campaign officials "hope Obama will campaign again for Deeds," and they are in touch with the White House.
Some "influential" Democrats are calling on Virginia gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (D) to "spend less time attacking" his Republican opponent Bob McDonnell and more time on spreading a "more positive message for the closing weeks of his campaign," Politico writes. These "influential" Democrats, who "have all expressed doubts" about Deeds' current campaign message, include Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA), Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine and former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe, Politico reports. McAuliffe called out for Deeds to, "Tell people what you're for."CONTINUED >>
Contrary to the preferred route of some Republican strategists, it doesn’t look like former Vice President Dick Cheney is going to hit the “Jackson Hole/Palm Springs” golf circuit anytime soon. According to the Washington Post , Cheney’s daughter Mary “is leaving the political consulting firm Navigators Global to start her own consulting company, and multiple sources familiar with her plans say she will not be going it alone. ‘She told me she is going to be starting a firm with her dad and sister," said one friend of Mary's, with whom she has shared her plans.’”
In case you missed a story the New York Times reported yesterday afternoon, First Lady Michelle Obama's roots can be traced back to a slave girl from South Carolina.play a game of hoops with 11 lawmakers and 4 cabinet secretaries (none of them women, we might add).dust off her Sarah Palin impersonation just in time for the release of the former governor's autobiography next month.
from NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Ken Strickland The Congressional Budget Office released its score of the Senate Finance Committee's health care bill, proposed by committee chairman
Max Baucus . The office estimated the bill's cost at $829 billion, and predicted that it would reduce the deficit by $81 billion over ten years. Making remarks after the CBO report was released, Baucus said the estimate was "quite promising," adding: "Health reform should be fiscally responsible as it expands and improves coverage, and the CBO has confirmed that the Finance legislation does just that." The office also concluded that the bill would cover 94% of Americans.
Before the bill goes to the Senate floor, it must still be merged with the Senate Health Committee bill, which was passed over the summer.
From NBC's Kelly Paice Today the White House honored the United States' leading scientists at the National Medal of Science and National Medal of Technology and Innovation Ceremony. President Obama recognized the vast importance of scientific innovation that has occurred throughout U.S. history and further expressed the significance of innovation today and for the future: "Science is more essential for our prosperity, our security, and our health, and our way of life than it has ever been. And the winners we are recognizing only underscore that point, with achievements in physics and medicine, computer science and cognitive science, energy technology and biotechnology." He added, "We need to ensure that we are encouraging the next generation of discoveries--and the next generation of discoverers."
President Obama stated that his administration has set a goal of devoting three percent of the nation's gross domestic product to scientific research and development, particularly investing in education and encouraging private innovation.
Tonight the First Couple will host a group of middle-school students on the South Lawn for a night of astronomy to highlight the president's commitment to science education. Pres. Obama expressed his eagerness for this evening's event and for the future of the nation's scientific advances and said, "They [the students] will peer through telescopes, wander through exhibits, and hopefully feel a sense of wonder that might one day lead them here to receive a medal themselves."
from NBC's Courtney Kube
Why step over his military leaders? Morrell said that Secretary Gates "saw what happened" when McChrystal's assessment was leaked and he "wanted to avoid any opportunity for leaking before" Obama had a chance to see the troop request. Typically, McChrystal would send his request to NATO leadership and to his boss at Central Command, General Petraeus, who would then forward it to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The Joint Chiefs would then provide it to Gates and ultimately it would end up on Obama's desk. The military leadership would provide their comments and recommendations at each step.
The troop request is now working its way through the proper chain of command.
by NBC's Ali Weinberg Minnesota Governor and RGA vice chairman
Tim Pawlenty will be the featured guest at the Iowa Republican party's "signature fall event," a further indication that he is exploring a 2012 presidential bid.
The event, to be held this Saturday, is the latest in a series of moves by Pawlenty that raise his national profile. He officially opened his political action committee, the Freedom First PAC, last week and has rounded up several former George W. Bush campaign advisers.
His appearance in the state that holds the first presidential primary follows those of several other high-profile Republicans, including ex-Senator Rick Santorum (PA) last week and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal last November.
Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said about Pawlenty's appearance, "Governor Pawlenty is an innovative, conservative leader and, as Iowa Republicans prepare for a robust gubernatorial primary election and nationally-watched general election for governor, his message of balanced budgets, lower taxes, and market-based reforms for health care and education will resonate with all Iowans." CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Kelly Paice
The general began with an explanation of CENTCOM’s jurisdiction: an area comprised of 20 countries—the smallest of geographic combatant commands—but, as Gen. Petraeus described, it “has its lion share of problems.” Rich in oil and natural resources, but plagued with such issues as war and ethnic and sectarian problems, CENTCOM is “an area of haves and have-nots…that has just about every challenge that you might consider,” he contended.
:
Eight years after the war in Afgahnistan was declared, a panel discusses the state of the conflict in the country. Iraq is just one small part of the region, a country in which Gen. Petraeus called 2009 a “transition year” and where progress is “fragile and reversible.” Nonetheless, progress is being made, as provincial governments become much more representative and as U.S. forces take on an “advise and assist” role, he furthered. U.S. forces will draw down to about 120,000 by the end of the month and to some 50,000 by the end of August next year, Petraeus predicted. “Iraqi security forces are very much shouldering tasks,” he said, but added, “There are certainly still bad guys in Iraq…and a host of challenges still to be worked out.”
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, Kelly Paice and Huma Zaidi Razvi *** Deja-News: Another day, another handwringing meeting by politicians on the issue of Afghanistan. And on the health care front, it's another day, another delay on the Senate Finance Committee vote. First, Afghanistan: Nobody said the decision the president is facing was going to be easy and yesterday he got a taste of just how hard it is to find a middle ground when he said down with 30+ Congressional leaders from both parties. The highlight of the meeting appears to be the snippy exchange between President Obama and his '08 foe, John McCain. Depending on your point of view, it's either the picture of the wise Washington sage lecturing the young naive war president or the angry old guy snapping at the guy he still holds a grudge against for denying him the presidency. (Remember, when the C.W. crowd in Washington thought the loser of the Obama-McCain matchup would go out of their way to work with the new president?) As for the policy debate, today the president convenes the third session of his war council to focus for three hours on where Pakistan fits in. Vice President Biden, among others, is an advocate of a "Pakistan First" policy which says any decision in Afghanistan should be made through the prism of Pakistan stability and for eradicating the al Qaeda safe havens in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)/Northwest tribal region of the country.
*** The Public's Role: Lots of poll data to comb through today on the issue of the war. A new Quinnipiac survey indicates the president has some running room with the public, assuming he lays out a clear vision for the strategy. And folks should take note of the Pew poll on Iran as a hint of how quickly public opinion can move once a president lays the facts on the table. This new Pew poll shows broad support for potential military action against Iran to prevent the country from acquiring nuclear weapons. The numbers might be a mild shock to some but consider it was just TEN DAYS AGO that the president of the United States announced to the WORLD that Iran had a secret nuclear facility. Of course the country is going to respond the way the Pew poll showed. It's likely what will happen once the president announces his new Afghanistan-Pakistan policy in the next few weeks. When it comes to national security issues, presidents, INITIALLY, get the benefit of the doubt until the facts on the ground no longer support them.
*** Get Out The Magic Eight Ball: When it comes to health care and the Senate, it seems as if the Magic 8 ball's famed fuzzy answers tell the story best: "Reply hazy, try again" or "ask again later" or "better not tell you now" or "cannot predict now" or "concentrate and ask again." Bottom line: it looks like the Senate Finance Committee isn't voting today and won't this week and the longer it takes for Max Baucus to get the bill through the committee, the more we hear from Democratic senators on the committee expressing hesitance on the bill. About the only good news for the White House on the health care front is that much of the national media has given up on the story this week, providing "page 4" coverage at best. And as they learned during the spring and early summer, the less attention Congress gets on health care, the more likely they are to make progress. Still, it's the ultimate "déjà-news" story in a day filled with them.
*** Poll-ter ZeitGeist: Speaking of polls, lots of them out today. Republicans are all fired up by the latest Gallup numbers showing the generic Congressional ballot virtually tied. The more intriguing number in the Gallup survey is the cross tab among independents which has Republicans up. This is a continuing trend among this key middle group we've noticed for months now. Meanwhile, Democrats (in particular the White House) is all excited by the latest AP poll showing the president's job rating no longer mired in the 50-52% range and is now at 56%. It's one poll and Gallup's job rating for the president is still in the 50-52% range but worth keeping an eye on to see if this is the start of an upward trend.
*** Crossing The Delaware: Republicans got a big shot in the arm yesterday when Republican Congressman Mike Castle announced he would seek Joe Biden's old senate seat in Delaware. Castle was the ONLY Republican who could seriously put this seat in play and he's running. Now Democrats are waiting on Biden's son, Beau, to decide (BTW, he might be having more cold feet than some realize, so we're hearing). For those keeping track of our Senate rankings (which debuted Monday, Delaware would jump immediately to 4 on our list, displacing Missouri, meaning the top FOUR slots, are now all Democratic-held seats.)
*** Candidate Recruiting Wars: Castle is the type of candidate recruitment the Republicans need to have if they are truly going to make serious progress at whittling away at the Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate. In fact, we'd argue the next 60-90 days are crucial for the GOP on the recruiting front. It's prime time for them to make their case that the environment for the GOP is going to be a good one in 2010. There are a lot of potential candidates kicking the tires on a campaign from the North Dakota Senate to South Carolina's 5th District and plenty of places in between. Castle's decision to run (truly a surprise to many) might just be the thing John Cornyn at the NRSC and Pete Sessions at the NRCC can use to convince their fence sitters to run. BTW, speaking of recruiting, Republicans scored another big get in Iowa: former GOP Governor Terry Branstad opens a campaign committee today. Dem Governor Chet Culver, like every governor in the country, has mediocre poll ratings.
*** Throwing In The Towel? Just curious, but did it strike anyone else as odd that VA GOV Dem nominee Creigh Deeds decided to roll out his excuses for losing about a month BEFORE election day? Deeds in a Politico forum held last night.
“Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough. We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending; they were uncomfortable with a lot of what was going on, a lot of the noise that was coming out of Washington, D.C.” Politico also has Deeds claiming he's now “reframing” the race "in an effort to shift the focus more toward state issues and away from a broader national debate." Then there is this headscratcher from Deeds. “I came out of the primary, and a lot of people didn’t expect me to win,” he said. “I had to spend a couple of months hunkering down, raising money. Bob [McDonnell] could build up his fundraising advantage to run soft and fuzzy ads and build up a lead over me.” Why is this last Deeds statement a headscratcher? Because the DGA spent MILLIONS hitting McDonnell during the primary. BTW, if Deeds keeps blaming the national environment, does that mean he won't be asking Pres. Obama to campaign for him?
*** Continuing our series, here are states 3 and 4 on our 2010 watch list. For those tracking, Colorado and Ohio rank 1 and 2 respectively.
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Florida: Once the ultimate battleground state in America (circa 2000), Florida still remains competitive and politically important, but a bit less so than at the turn of the century. The gubernatorial contest between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Bill McCollum is one of the cycle's marquee races, and gives Democrats their best chance to win a governor's mansion they haven't won since 1994. Governor Charlie Crist is the front-runner for the open Senate seat, but he'll face a spirited primary from the young, telegenic conservative Marco Rubio (who seems to have galvanized more than just the base), and then most likely face a general election fight from Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek (though there is still some chatter that national Democrats would like an alternative to Meek now that Crist doesn't look like a shoo-in). Freshman Democratic congresswoman Suzanne Kosmas bid for re-election is probably the state's top-tier House race though good 'ol Alan Grayson has certainly staked his claim on the top tier target list!
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- New Hampshire: New Hampshire’s first-in-the nation primary status and its libertarian/independent streak ("Live Free or Die" and 40% independent registration) always make the Granite State something of a wild card. And it will be no different in 2010. The Senate contest here, to replace the retiring GOP Sen. Judd Gregg (R), is shaping up to be one of the top races of the cycle: The likely Democratic nominee is Representative Paul Hodes, while the GOP front-runner is ex-state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte. The biggest GOP hiccup to success in the senate race is going to the primary. Ayotte is a moderate in the mold of a Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe but that may not pass muster in a GOP primary here. Meanwhile, the state's two Democratic-held congressional seats could be competitive, especially with Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) challenging incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) in addition to the seat being vacated by Hodes. National Democrats are satisfied with Hodes but secretly wish they had a more proven statewide vote-getter. As with Colorado, Democrats have enjoyed tremendous success in the Granite State in the last few years -- winning two House seats, a Senate race, and also at the presidential level. Does that begin to change next year?
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 27 days
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A visibly irked Obama sharply replied that he is not making this decision in a "leisurely fashion," and moved on to the next member of Congress, the source said."Los Angeles Times notes the president indicated he was looking for a middle ground... if there is one.
The Washington Post report indicates the sharp partisan divide on the issue.
:
NBC's Tom Brokaw joins the Morning Joe gang to discuss the foreign policy decisions regarding Iran and Afghanistan that are facing the Obama administration. Adds the New York Times: "Meeting with leaders from both parties at the White House, Mr. Obama seemed to be searching for some sort of middle ground, saying he wanted to “dispense with the straw man argument that this is about either doubling down or leaving Afghanistan,” as White House officials later described his remarks.
CONTINUED >>
New York Times looks at four swing vote senators on the Finance Committee: Rockefeller, Wyden, Snowe and Lincoln.
And the Washington Post looks at the White House's efforts to find non-Congressional Republicans to say positive things about their health care reform attempts.
Three Democratic senators from purple-ish and red states -- Webb, Bayh and Lincoln -- are calling on Majority Leader Harry Reid to post the health care legislation and CBO score online before holding the vote.
Democratic House leaders “said they will present rank-and-file members with options Wednesday for how to proceed on outstanding issues and will begin moving toward a final bill.”
:
President Obama's top dealmakers will merge all the Senate health care plans to create one bill. CONTINUED >>
A stimulus by any other name: “The White House and some Democratic leaders have been open to an extension of unemployment benefits including health care benefits, as well as an extension of an expensive tax credit for new homebuyers sought by the hard-hit real estate industry — all the while trying to convince reporters that such spending shouldn’t be called a “stimulus.” A $500 transportation bill has also been suggested to help unemployed voters, but Democrats are wary of Republicans saying the first package didn’t work by pointing to a second attempt.
Regulatory bodies like the Office of Thrift Supervision, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the FDIC are now facing the threat of being condensed into one entity, the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. John Bowman, the acting director of the thrift office, says he and the other regulatory groups “have been unfairly blamed for the economic crisis. ‘We have very real concerns. To dismiss it as simply being turf is selling us short,’ said Bowman.”
We're guessing that the testimony of five Constitutional scholars about the czar issue won't be enough to quiet conservative critics.
While the latest Gallup poll has nothing but bad news for the Obama administration, this new AP poll indicates that his job rating has gone up for the first time since he became president. "People also feel better about his handling of the economy and his proposed health care overhaul. But not about the war. Support for the war in Afghanistan has declined, the poll said Tuesday. And approval of Obama's handling of it is holding steady — in contrast to his gains in other areas — as he considers a big troop increase there. Poll respondents narrowly oppose the increase."attend a $30,400-per-couple DNC fundraiser in Manhattan on October 20.
The
Wall Street Journal looks at the correlation between the unemployment rate and Election Day. "Republicans are already harnessing voter unease over deficit spending and proposed changes to the health-care system. But they see the economy as the Democrats' main vulnerability… Officials at the National Republican Campaign Committee said they planned to use the weak employment numbers to hammer at 54 Democratic House members that Republicans deem the most vulnerable in 2010. Republicans are particularly targeting the 49 House lawmakers in districts carried last November by Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential nominee."
A new Gallup poll has the generic Congressional ballot essentially tied. The bigger problem for Democrats: Republicans are leading among indie voters. approve of the job Congress is doing. A stunning 18-point collapse since last month. VIRGINIA: It’s Oct. 7, just under a month until Election Day and Creigh Deeds is already looking for excuses? So does this mean he does NOT want Pres. Obama to campaign for him? CONTINUED >>
SARAH PALIN: On her Facebook page, Palin comes out for the troop increase in Afghanistan. Palin says in a posting on her Facebook page Tuesday that this is "not the time for cold feet, second thoughts, or indecision." Instead, the former Alaska governor writes it's time "to act as commander in chief and approve the troops so clearly needed in Afghanistan."
ENSIGN: Tells the New York Times he will not resign.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice Today, the debate over the war in Afghanistan and the war with al- Qaeda enters another stage as the president puts a spotlight on the efforts his administration (and President Bush's administration) has put into attacking al Qaeda in countries OUTSIDE of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The president visits the National Counterterrorism Center, the chief clearing house where intelligence is shared and analyzed across law enforcement agencies and the military. It's a place that will look familiar to "24" fans. It gets to the nut of the debate inside the White house: how much of the war against al Qaeda is confined to the Af-Pak region and how much of it is still global? Senior officials involved in the day-to-day terror battle tell us that they don't want folks to conflate al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Al-Qaeda is viewed as a global terror threat. The Taliban is viewed by the administration as an "indigenous extremist organization" focused on destabilizing Afghanistan and Pakistan. As one administration official told NBC News, the goal is to defeat the Taliban but the goal is to DESTROY al-Qaeda. That may seem like nuance but it gets at one other debate point, which is: just how much of a national security threat is the TALIBAN.
Video :
After receiving conflicting advice from his war council on whether or not to dramatically increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, President Obama is turning to congressional lawmakers for support. *** Taliban vs. Al Qaeda: Don't miss John McCain on the TODAY show arguing that you can't separate al Qaeda and the Taliban. "The Taliban is making gains. Al-Qaeda will return if the Taliban takes over, not to mention the horrible things that would happen to the Afghan people if the Taliban returned to power. But they're not…I strongly disagree with those who allege they are separate problems. They've worked together in the past, they would work together in the future. The urgency here ... is that there is 68,000 already there, Americans are dying, the situation is deteriorating. We have to turn it around and as far as General McChrystal speaking out, you know, we wish they had spoken out earlier in the Iraq war. We certainly wish they had spoken out during the Vietnam War." BTW, Dem Sen. Jim Webb was on “Morning Joe,” making the point there are only 100 or so members of al-Qaeda actually in Afghanistan. Talk about a fascinating potential debate: McCain v. Webb.*** Chain of Command: If it wasn't clear over the weekend, Defense Secretary Robert Gates made it crystal when he took a veiled swipe at General Stanley McCrystal and other uniformed Pentagon personnel who have gone public with their opinions regarding the current strategy debate regarding the war in Afghanistan. Said Gates: "It is imperative that all of us taking part in these deliberations provide our best advice to the president candidly, but privately." Gates didn't make this comment in some sort of Q&A session but in prepared remarks early yesterday. Clearly, some in the administration are annoyed that this debate is so public and it does put the president in a political box that this administration doesn't want to deal with: that NOT adding troops somehow makes Obama look weak. It may explain why there is an attempt to refocus the public (and those in Washington) on the counter-terrorism efforts taking place OUTSIDE the war zone in places like Somalia, Indonesia, Yemen, Mali (in West Africa) and even New York City.
*** Speaker Comes Up Roses: The other big presidential event today is the president's meeting with a slew of Congressional leaders from both parties, on the issue of Afghanistan. The fascinating aspect of the meeting is that you'll have views represented from all sides including Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the left who is very leery of sending more troops to Afghanistan and Pres. Obama's '08 opponent, Republican Senator John McCain, a strong advocate for the McCrystal surge plan of 40,000 more troops. This meeting may be as much about the president taking the temperature of Congress and seeing what they will and won't support as it is about him soliciting yet more advice. BTW, the president convenes the third Afghanistan strategy session with his war council TOMORROW. The focus of THAT meeting: Pakistan.
*** Speaking of Congress: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was on Charlie Rose last night and once again seemed to hint at flexibility on health care specifically on the public option. Here are her direct quotes: "We will bring a bill to the floor in the House of Representatives that has a public option in it. It's necessary because it will lower cost. A robust public option saves $110 billion in the bill. Pressed on the issue of reconciling with the Senate and her blue dogs, Pelosi then said: "And we're listening to each other. And we will build consensus, and it won't be anything direction that we will give. But it will be the consensus of those who want healthcare reform as to how we go forward." Pelosi said her hope is to send a bill to the president to sign by Thanksgiving.
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While Senators debate the public option, lawmakers are shying away from a bill that would subject the health insurance companies to anti-trust laws, and break their hold on the health care system. There’s big news for both gubernatorial races today. For the first time in the New Jersey race, Dem Governor Jon Corzine leads Republican Chris Christie in a reputable poll. Corzine's up 44%-43%, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind poll. Despite Corzine’s new lead (within the poll’s margin of error), the candidate whose numbers have really been moving is independent Chris Daggett—although only four percent of poll respondents volunteered that they will vote for Daggett, his support rose to 17% when his name was read with the other two choices. Votes for Daggett are the “anti-incumbent” vote, for those who don’t want to support either major party candidate. If Daggett can sustain this support, the math might just stay in Corzine’s favor. In Virginia, the local ABC affiliate airs a debate between Creigh Deeds (D) and Bob McDonnell (R). The two will answer questions submitted through Google Moderator, a program that solicits voters’ questions through text and YouTube. The nominees will also be interviewed by ABC 7’s Leon Harris and Politico’s John Harris.
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Continuing our 2010 current raisers, we delve into some of the key battleground states for the midterms, our top 12 to watch. We're rolling out two a day. These states are ones that we believe we essentially tell us two things: 1) the story of the 2010 midterms. 2) set the table for the 2012 landscape. All of these states have at least one MAJOR statewide race (most have two) as well as some key House races. Our top two states are in a class by themselves in significance: Ohio and Colorado. Both sport competitive Senate, gubernatorial and House races and both will be key 2012 battlegrounds as they were MAJOR 2008 swing states. *** Ohio: In 2006, Democrats' success in the Buckeye State -- winning both the races for Senate and governor -- turned out to be a good predictor of their presidential victory (in the state and in the Electoral College) two years later. Will Ohio in 2010 also tell us something about 2012? Next year, this state will have it all: a competitive Senate contest (Democrats Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner vs. most likely Republican nominee Rob Portman), a competitive gubernatorial race (incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland vs. Republican John Kasich), and at least one top-tier House contest (Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy defending her seat). We expect more actually. What's more, the state remains perhaps the top presidential battleground state. If Obama holds on to it in 2012, that makes it incredibly difficult for Republicans to get to 270 electoral votes. BTW, if either Portman or Kasich win in 2010, look for one or both of them to immediately make it on to 2012 GOP running mate lists.
*** Colorado: Among the competitive states across the country, there perhaps isn't one where the Democrats have had more success than in Colorado. In 2004, they won the open Senate seat; in 2006, they won the governor's mansion; and in 2008, they picked up another Senate seat and Obama won the state. Also in the last few years, they've picked up three congressional seats and control of the state legislature. But is that Democratic dominance going to come to an end next year? Obama's poll numbers have dropped in the state. So have incumbent Governor Bill Ritter's numbers (his most likely opponent next year will be former GOP Representative Scott McInnis). Appointed Senator Michael Bennet now faces a primary challenge from state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, as well as one of a crowded field of GOP candidates. Democratic Representative Betsy Markey, who beat Marilyn Musgrave last year, is one of the Republicans' top House targets for 2010. If there is one battleground state from 2008 where Republicans are feeling VERY good about, it's Colorado. The independent vote in this state is VERY volatile and, right now, that's a good thing for the GOP.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 28 days
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Today, the president heads to the National Counterterrorism Center in an effort to highlight what is, essentially, the global war on al-Qaeda, though the administration hesitates to use the phrase "war on terror."discarded the term "global war on terror," along with some of its most controversial tools, and aides describe a president who has been deliberative in implementing his own security policy. He has come under fire for not abandoning some of George W. Bush's policies, such as warrantless wiretapping and rendition, and faced criticism for jettisoning others, including enhanced interrogation techniques and secret prisons."
Also today, President Obama meets with a bipartisan group of congressional leaders today to discuss the worsening situation in Afghanistan, The Hill reports. The session, which will include House Minority Leader John Boehner, Minority Whip Eric Cantor and Armed Services Committee ranking member Buck McKeon is "the first time in six months that House Republican leaders have been invited to the White House to discuss official business.
And press secretary Robert Gibbs "refused to rebuke Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the head of U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan who publicly advocated sending more troops to the region," after National Security Advisor Jim Jones said on this Sunday's morning talk shows that military leaders should be less vocal about their strategy preferences in Afghanistan. "Far be it from me to parse the words of a four-star general," Gibbs said of Jones.tells us, of how the international intelligence gathered is used to help law enforcement officials here in the states.
Bush 41 National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft continues to be supportive of the direction of the Obama foreign policy but cautioned the administration on retreating in Afghanistan.
"He said Mr. Obama's choice of Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal to lead U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan implied a commitment to defeating the Taliban insurgency as the best way of preventing terrorist attacks on the United States."
The Pentagon has some new elite units they are deploying to Afghanistan: experts on the tribal politics of the country.disagreement over whether the Taliban has gotten stronger in Afghanistan.
The relationship between Pakistan and the U.S. is partially responsible for what the Obama administration says is a successful stepped up effort to destroy top al-Qaeda leaders and yet Pakistani government officials seem hesitant allowing more U.S. presence in their country
Joe Violante, the national legislative director of the Disabled American Veterans, an advocacy group, has an “increasingly complex” job, as he now speaks not only for World War II, Vietnam, Korea and first Gulf War veterans, but also younger vets returning from Iraq and Afghanistan. This year may, however, bring a major success for the 59-year-old Vietnam vet: “Congress is on the cusp of approving advance appropriations for the Department of Veterans Affairs, which would ensure that injured soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan, and other veterans, have predictable medical-care funding. This would give the VA much more certainty over its funding, as it would know its budget a year in advance.” Over the past two decades, Congress “has routinely passed the agency’s funding late.”
On MSNBC’s “Way Too Early” today, General Barry McCaffrey, an MSNBC military analyst, told host Willie Geist that the viewpoint of General Stanley McChrystal, the coalition commander in Afghanistan who has publicized his recommendation of a troop increase there, is being politicized. “It seems to me that McChrystal isn’t a political animal anyway. He’s the best fighter we’ve produced in the last 25 years in the army and I think now his viewpoint is being manipulated in the Washington debate. So what else is new?”
In his keynote address at the 2009 Association of the U.S. Army Annual Meeting and Exposition in Washington D.C. yesterday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said that U.S. decisions on how best to move forward in Afghanistan should be taken only after advice from civilians and the military has been received ‘candidly and privately,’ Marine Corps Times writes, adding: “His comment on getting advice to the president “privately” could be interpreted as a knuckle rap for Afghanistan commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal, whose Afghanistan assessment document was leaked to the press.”
President Obama met yesterday with about a hundred doctors from “Red States, Blue States,” and some professional physicians’ organizations like the American Medical Association, which “has endorsed the House version of the healthcare reform bill that does away with the Medicare payment formula doctors have long opposed.” The president said that ‘at this point we've heard all the arguments,’ and he looked past the ‘crazy claims about death panels’ and arguments that his plan would amount to government-run healthcare.”
After President Obama met with the group of doctors, some Republicans asserted “that there is significant opposition in the health care community to the president’s plans. In an interview, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), an orthopedic surgeon, said Monday that there is significant disagreement among rank-and-file doctors with the decision of their leadership to support Obama’s plans. “I’m a member of the [American Medical Association], and I’m in pretty close contact with them,” Barrasso said. “There are a lot of members of the AMA who do not support this.” Barrasso “derided” the White House event yesterday as “a publicity stunt.”
Roll Call: “What Democrats really want, it seems, is for [Senator Olympia] Snowe (R-ME) to end all the drama over her vote.” Her spokesman said yesterday that she is still undecided on how she will vote on the Senate Finance Committee’s bill, and is awaiting the CBO’s final estimate of its overall cost. Majority Leader Reid and Obama “need to know Snowe’s intentions before they make a final decision on how to craft some of the most contentious provisions in that merged measure.” Snowe’s challenge in the debate: If she votes against a bill she helped craft with a bipartisan team, “liberal Democrats may take that as a sign that negotiating for her vote could constitute a bridge too far. If she votes for it, she may send a signal that she’s too easy and tempt Democrats to push her limits on a public insurance option.”
What is
going on at the Chamber of Commerce? It seems like every day some major corporation is announcing they are pulling out over the climate issue. "Disagreements are common in large trade associations. But resignations over policy are rare, an indication of how high the stakes are in opposing a top-agenda item of a sitting president."
Politico's Gerstein has some Obama palace intrigue surrounding the blame game on Gitmo, which centers on White House Counsel Greg Craig. New York Times tries to find an answer to the question of what programs will the Obama administration propose to create jobs, as the president pledged over the weekend.
Republicans criticized President Obama for deciding not to meet with the Dalai Lama this week. “‘The U.S. is kowtowing to Beijing again by refusing to meet with His Holiness,’ said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL), the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee,” The Hill reports. “The Obama administration is seeking cooperation with China on a range of issues,” from imposing sanctions on Iran to “re-balancing trade and savings patterns.”
The New York Post writes that in his latest weekly radio address, Obama “repeated almost verbatim his earlier address when talking about health-insurance companies."
Politico checks in on Ways and Means Chair Charlie Rangel and the ethics cloud that hangs over his head.
What we don't understand, btw, is how Rangel ended up doing a stimulus event in New York City yesterday with an Obama Treasury official. One would think something like that would have been vetted. BTW, the House GOP resolution on ousting Rangel from his committee slot may be voted on this week.
The Washington Post catches on the talking point we've seen pop up recently among GOPers, and that's tying ACORN to the powerful SEIU union.
"Last week, Republican Representatives Mark Steven Kirk and Peter Roskam of Illinois and Patrick T. McHenry of North Carolina urged the Census Bureau to stop allowing the SEIU to help recruit workers for its 2010 head count. "There's simply no place for a group so closely connected to ACORN to be part of something of such national importance as the U.S. Census," Roskam said. “Some liberal groups say that Republican complaints about the SEIU represent guilt by association.”
NEW JERSEY: The candidates for New Jersey's governorship
explain their plans to boost the state's economy and bring jobs to its people, The New Jersey Star-Ledger reports. Democratic nominee Gov. Jon Corzine said, "Right now I think the No. 1 priority—how do you get the economy going—you have to grow our markets and grow our markets by having people work. When you create jobs, you create revenues for individuals, who then go into markets and create revenues for the state. That’s what we have to do, create jobs, jobs, jobs." When asked how he plans to create jobs in New Jersey, Republican candidate Chris Christie said, "Lowering of taxation and the lowering of regulation"; while in response to the same question, Independent candidate Chris Daggett responded, "Greater investment in higher education and developing collaborative relationships between higher education and industry."
A new poll released Tuesday has the top New Jersey gubernatorial nominees neck-and-neck, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The Fairleigh Dickinson University-PublicMind Poll gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 44 percent and his Republican challenger Chris Christie 43 percent-—the difference within the poll's margin of error.
VIRGINIA: USA Today calls the Virginia gubernatorial race "a referendum" on the Obama presidency: "In winning the White House, Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Virginia since 1964. Now, Republicans here say, the political tide is turning." Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds admitted that his campaign has been affected by Obama being in the White House. "You've got a president who is trying to do things, and he's ruffling feathers," Deeds said. Bob McDonnell, the Republican challenger, furthered, "The overall political atmosphere is certainly much different now than it was in 2008 when the president won. ... We've got a lot more enthusiasm and energy on our side."mocking Democrat R. Creigh Deeds' stammer," the Richmond Times-Dispatch writes. The co-founder of Black Entertainment Television, Sheila C. Johnson, apologized for her imitation of Deeds at an event with McDonnell; however, McDonnell chose to continue to attack Deeds for his inability to "express any vision for Virginia's future."
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From NBC's Kelly Paice As the Obama administration looks to bring peace to the Middle East, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a discussion today titled, "The U.S., Hamas, and the Pursuit of Israeli-Palestinian Peace," bringing three Mideast experts together to discuss the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict and potential for resolution.
Robert Pastor, an International Relations professor and senior adviser to the Carter Center on Conflict Resolution and the Middle East, suggested that Pres. Obama has moved the U.S. from a lawyer-like relationship with the Middle East to one of an "honest broker." Pastor furthered, "I think Obama is on the right track"; however, Elliott Abrams, former deputy national security adviser for Middle Eastern Affairs in the George W. Bush administration said, "I think Obama's [Mideast] policy has already failed." Aaron David Miller, a Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, weighed in that an agreeable "policy is about finding balance about what's possible and what's probable" in the Middle East.
Pastor suggested that one important action by the Obama administration was the appointment of George Mitchell as the special envoy to the Middle East, whom he called "an expert at mediation." Pastor outlined his opinion of the two essential aspects of the Obama administration's focus in the Middle East so far: one, the importance of a two-state solution and, two, the importance of freezing settlements in the region. Pastor called the president "wise" for focusing on settlements and his efforts to move along negotiations between Israel and Palestine: "The president has been outstanding in defining a comprehensive approach," in this Middle East conflict--yet no negotiations have taken place yet.
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From NBC's Bobby Cervantes President Obama is set to be the keynote speaker at the annual dinner of the nation’s largest LGBT rights organization on Saturday--just one day before thousands are expected to march in Washington, DC calling for more action on gay rights issues, according to The New York Times.
