First thoughts: it's the economy
Posted: Thursday, October 08, 2009 9:45 AM by firstread
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, Kelly Paice and Huma Zaidi Razvi
****** It's The Economy... Sandwiched between a few Afghanistan-centric days, today is all about the economy, as the President meets with business leaders over lunch, and later with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. These meetings come after a closed-door discussion yesterday with Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, where job stimulus was the hot topic. Today is also hoops-heavy for the president. He'll stop by the White House basketball court to watch the National Naval Medical Center Marine Wounded Warrior basketball team play. And in the evening, after meetings with Geithner and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, it's back to basketball, as Obama takes the court with cabinet secretaries and members of Congress, including Geithner, Education Secretary Duncan, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, and Representatives Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Frank Kratovil (D-MD). BTW, the folks at the WNBA won't be pleased to know that the president doesn't have any women playing in his pickup game.
*** Can't Spell Cobble Together Without CBO: It took two and half months longer than planned (and actually the clock is still ticking on passage) but Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus did it, he got the president a health care bill that reduces the deficit, according to the Congressional Budget Office. How can you tell if bill could pass and is potentially the president's silver bullet? Check out Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell's reaction to the CBO scoring: “This partisan Finance Committee proposal will never see the Senate floor since the real bill will be written by Democrat leaders in a closed-to-the-public conference room somewhere in the Capitol. The real bill will be another 1,000-page, trillion-dollar experiment that slashes a half-trillion dollars from seniors’ Medicare, raises taxes on American families by $400 billion, increases health care premiums, and vastly expands the role of the federal government in the personal health care decisions of every American.” Did you catch that? The GOP spin on this is that Baucus' bill won't be "the real bill." And he's right, to a point, there will be some changes, i.e. some form of a public option, but the bar's been set by Baucus on the deficit front. And considering the initial reaction the Baucus bill is receiving on the Hill, don't be surprised if the White House makes this bill the standardbearer.
*** Second Stimulus? For the second day in a row, the Congressional Dem leadership team visited the White House but the topic wasn't Afghanistan, it was jobs. And while you won't hear the actual phrase "second stimulus" out of the Democrats or the White House, it does sound like something is coming. Pelosi said that they are "committed to take further action on behalf of the millions of Americans out of work or at risk of losing their jobs, their savings and their homes.” The questions now are what, and how big it will be. Republicans are having a field day over this news as they are using this chatter this week about the possibility of some sort of jobs package as a way to attack, again, the $800B stimulus bill passed last spring. Privately, those inside the White House will concede the blew the messaging on that bill by pushing the "jobs" aspect of it but it was "in the now" decision, i.e., they needed a talking point to get the bill passed. Now many wish they never uttered the word "jobs" in connection with that first stimulus because it makes the job of whatever they are going to sell this fall that much harder. That said, the administration has no choice. As Dem pollster Mark Penn wrote recently in the Wall Street Journal, "no statistic is more vital in human or political terms than unemployment." If the jobs situation stays dismal, and Democrats don't do anything about it, they risk looking downright uncaring--dangerous especially coming into an election year.
*** No Good Deeds... Sports columnist Jim Murray once wrote, "The charm of baseball is that, dull as it may be on the field, it is endlessly fascinating as a rehash." It's kind of like political campaigns, sometimes it's hard to watch in the moment but it's fun to rehash, unless you're rehashing before the end of the campaign! That said, just one day after Virginia Gubernatorial Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds spent crucial time at a candidate forum coming up with excuses for losing, which included an indirect shot at the national party and landscape, the DNC kicked it into high gear on a number of fronts, including attempting to galvanize the base nationally about the race. So score one for Deeds? As inarticulate as he was about his political problems, which included no finger pointing at himself, it did appear to have the desired effect on the DNC. That said, it is stunning that the national GOP is so much more united in their support for Bob McDonnell.
*** Rangel-ing a Majority: While Democrats voted overwhelmingly to table a resolution to strip House Ways and Means chairman Charlie Rangel of his post, it was interesting to check in on the Democrats who voted with the majority of Republicans and the few Republicans who voted with the majority of Democrats. Mississippi Reps. Gene Taylor and Travis Childers joined the minority in voting against Rangel. But check out some of the Republicans who voted against their caucus: From Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) to Peter King (R-NY). Overall, more Republicans voted with the Democrats than the other way around. The real test for Rangel and the Democrats will be after the Ethics Committee finishes its investigation.
*** Continuing our states to watch in 2010 series, numbers 5 and 6 are below. The first four: CO, OH, FL and NH.
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Nevada: The stories emerging out of this presidential battleground state are almost endless: Another Democratic majority leader (Harry Reid) is in danger of losing his Senate seat; his son (Rory Reid) is running for governor in a race that could go either way; the incumbent GOP governor (Jim Gibbons) is going through a divorce over allegations of infidelity and even by a lawsuit by a woman claiming that he assaulted her in a parking garage; and there's a competitive House race (freshman Democratic Rep. Dina Titus is one of the GOP's top targets). Speaking of sons, one of the top Republican contenders for Harry Reid’s Senate seat is Danny Tarkanian, whose father is the towel-gnawing former famed UNLV Runnin’ Rebels basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian. Both Danny Tarkanian and former state GOP chairwoman Sue Lowden -- who’s exploring a bid -- lead Reid in recent polls. In the race for governor, Gibbons will face a tough challenge from District Court judge Brian Sandoval, a former state attorney general, in the primary. BTW, the Reid dynasty aspect is, perhaps, the single most under-examined aspect of 2010.
*** States To Watch In 2010 -- Arkansas: If Ohio, Colorado, and New Hampshire are the states to measure the health of the Democrats in Year Two of the Obama Era, then Arkansas could very well be the state to gauge whether Republicans can finally win in a state where it SHOULD be winning but HASN'T -- outside of the presidential election. The marquee contest in the state is Sen. Blanche Lincoln's re-election. If Republicans can't find a way to win here, no matter how well Lincoln may have inoculated herself in this political climate, you've got to wonder when Republicans will begin to win office in a state where Obama won just 39% of the vote last year. On the other hand, if Republicans CAN defeat Lincoln, that will tell us a great tell a great deal about the Democrats' brand in the South, even in a state like Arkansas where it's had plenty of success (with Lincoln, Mark Pryor, and Mike Beebe). Right now, Republicans' preferred candidate to face Lincoln is state Sen. Gilbert Baker, but he must first deal with an increasingly crowded GOP field. No other state in the South will do a better job telling the story of 2010 in this region than Bill Clinton's home state.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 26 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 61 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 103 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 390 days
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