GOP watch: Chaos in NY-23

Posted: Monday, November 02, 2009 9:11 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Republicans, 2009

Dede Scozzafava, a moderate Republican whose candidacy for the NY-23 special election “had set off a storm of national conservative opposition” withdrew from the race on Saturday, leaving it a two-way battle between Democrat Bill Owens and third-party Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, seen by many Republicans, including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty as the only candidate with conservative bona fides. But some marquee Republicans warned of a third-party trend. “If we get into a cycle where every time one side loses, they run a third-party candidate, we’ll make Pelosi speaker for life and guarantee Obama’s re-election,” said former House speaker Newt Gingrich. The New York Times writes that Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Colorado, California and Illinois might receive challenges from third-party contenders trying to claim the mantle of the Republican party.

After suspending her own campaign, Scozzafava came out in favor of Democratic candidate Bill Owens, writing in an email sent to supporters: “To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise." Writes the New York Daily News, “it's a major blow to Hoffman, whose campaign arguably would have been better served if Scozzafava remained officially neutral.”

House Minority Leader John Boehner defended his party in the wake of Scozzafava's withdrawal. "Clearly she would be on the left side of our party," said Boehner, who had financially supported the campaign of the New York assemblywoman, The Hill writes. Boehner added, "We accept moderates in our party and we want moderates in our party."

Roll Call looks at the pressure starting to mount on NRCC head Pete Sessions: "But two messy special elections later, the NRCC lags behind its Democratic counterpart as well as the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee in fundraising -- and the committee is more than $10 million behind where the Cole-led NRCC was at this point in the 2007 election cycle. This disparity has caused several Members, staff and GOP political operatives to question whether Sessions has delivered on his commitment to excel where he thought Cole had failed."

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NY23_1101424.pdf

Hoffman primed for dominant victory
Raleigh, N.C. – Doug Hoffman has a large lead in his bid to be elected the new
Congressman from New York’s 23rd Congressional District.
Hoffman is at 51% to 34% for Bill Owens and 13% for Dede Scozzafava in the poll
conducted over the weekend. In a two way contest against Owens, Hoffman holds a 54-
38 advantage.
Among Republicans Hoffman is at 71% to 15% for Scozzafava and 12% for Owens.
With independents Hoffman holds a 52-30 lead over Owens. Owens is getting 67% of
the Democratic vote to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava.
It was somewhat of a tumultuous polling weekend, first with Scozzafava’s withdrawal on
Saturday and then with her endorsement of Owens on Sunday. But there were no
significant differences in the numbers at any point over the course of the weekend.
Hoffman led Owens by 18 points in interviews before Scozzafava’s withdrawal, 19
points in between her withdrawal and the announcement of her endorsement, and by 14
points subsequent to her encouraging people to vote for Owens.
“NY-23 is shaping up as a huge victory for the grassroots conservative wing of the
Republican Party,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Doug
Hoffman was able to convince GOP voters to choose him over the party’s own nominee
and it looks like he will win a resounding victory.”
Barack Obama’s approval rating in the district is 39%. Those planning to vote Tuesday
say they voted for John McCain by a 51-43 margin last year, an indication of reduced
Democratic turnout.
PPP surveyed 1,747 likely NY-23 voters on October 31st and November 1st. The
survey’s margin of error is +/-2.3%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and
weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at
(888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

Bing Censored? (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:21 AM)

This is a MAJOR embarrassment for the GOP.

Steele, Gingrich, Boehner...all backed Scozzafava and are now left with egg on their faces with her withdrawl.

Somebody, however, needs to remind Palin, Pawlenty, Armey and company that Doug Hoffman does not even live in NY 23 and can't even vote for himself tomorrow!

Hey, check it out...a write-in campaign?

http://www.gouverneurtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7366:write-in-candidate-joins-23rd-race&catid=60:st-lawrence-news&Itemid=175

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:22 AM)

Boehner: "We accept moderates in our party"? Really? Is that as long as they suspend any rational thought and let the neanderthals try to take us back to caveman times? How any person with any IQ whatsoever can take the modern Republican party seriously is beyond me.

newdayDAWNING (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:25 AM)

Boehner added, "We accept moderates in our party and we want moderates in our party."

-----------------------------------------------

All evidence to the contrary.

Sheerluck Holmes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:32 AM)

I was unaware of the Hoffman issue until listening to Radio Mouths mentioning his military service. I wnt to his web site for bio and saw no birth date. Went to masny others the same. Fuinally got his birth date. 4-11-50. His selective service number was 14. No wonder he joined the guard like many did. If he could not serve like the rest of us (me in 69 before any draft) then he has no place in this job.

joe, houlton,ME (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:44 AM)

It may be a problem for the Republican party, but it is definetly not a problem for Conservatives. Look at Virginia and New Jersey. It'll be very amusing to watch the level of comfort continue to disentegrate in Washington. Is this a teaste of what's to come in 2012? The point is not "Republicans", it is Conservatives. And ready or not, here they come.......

Nancy Torrap (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:47 AM)

Moderate Republicans DO NOT endorse their Democrat opponents.

Dede Scozzafava was a Liberal all along and can now join Arlen Spector and Bennedict Arnold.

Emma Morrow (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:48 AM)

SHOWS THAT REPUBS WANT TO RETURN TO CONSERVATIVE ROOTS!

THAT IS A GOOD STRATEGY SINCE THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS LEAN CONSERVATIVE.

REPUBLICANS TO RETURN TO CONSERVATIVE ROOTS! (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:54 AM)

John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, and other Republican representatives seek to just fault and block everything and anything the Obama administration offers. Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, Palin and others aggressively criticize every position taken by the Obama administration, now ridiculously even H1N1 flu vaccinations. The obviously and totally discrediting problems with all of that are threefold. One, their positions are always aggressive and arrogant in being negative attacks without ever offering anything constructive or positive. Two, their efforts are clearly aimed at manipulating public opinion without any real concern for the people. Three, their deceptive concentration on finding fault fails to admit that over the last eight years their positions irresponsibly and self-servingly heavily contributed to the severe problems we have and then … it is that same mentality which they seek to return to, to ‘more of the same’. We can’t withstand ‘more of the same’ and it is their real responsibility to conscientiously and honestly work together in fine-tuning and finding compromises that work in the best interests of the people, all of the people and not just Special Interests. Their bold and belligerent self-serving efforts and their obvious arrogance in taking the people for granted by thinking that public opinion can so easily and continually be manipulated while they just serve as puppets to Special Interests and a select few, is disgusting and costing us greatly. They need to change their ways or to be thrown out.

REG in AZ (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:58 AM)

Most americans are conservative. Poll after poll shows that. We want representation. Liberals have always been the minority and for good reason, look at the destruction they are doing to the country right now.

reason (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 9:59 AM)

You keep telling yourself that, Nancy. And keep demonstrating how the Republican party takes advantage of- and encourages people to be too proud of their lack of education to use a dictionary.

Michael, New Hamsphire (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:03 AM)

The majority of voters are middle of the road.

For years the Democrats had a problem with the radical left wing of their party costing them elections. They finally got that under control and now the far left is basically (and rightfully) ignored by mainstream Democrats, dismissed as a bunch of disaffected cranks.

The Republicans have basically allowed their lunatic fringe to take over the party. There is no room for the old style fiscal conservative/social moderate Republican, it's all religious nutcases and conspiracy theorists... and guess what, those people aren't even fiscal conservatives.

Spiro Cheney (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:08 AM)

Sarah Palin flushed out a rat. Hoffman was really running against two Democrats. 2:1 is not fair but hey its how the Democrats play.

Harold (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:12 AM)

Seems like disintegration of republican party has started.
When parties loose elections, they move closer to the core, which is ultra conservatism in their case.
It will be fun to watch 2010 elections.

Joe (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:16 AM)

How can people in any district actually vote for someone who doesn't even live there and therefore cannot speak to the problems of the region?

How dumb can some voters be?

There is nothing wrong with being a conservative, but there is something wrong with being a conserative who is totally intolerant of any other point of view.

Chandler W. (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:36 AM)

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