Poll: 18% undecided in NY-23

Posted: Monday, November 02, 2009 10:22 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: 2009, Polls

From NBC's Mark Murray
Now that the NY-23 special congressional election has essentially turned into a two-person race, a new Siena Research poll has Conservative Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens by five percentage points, 41%-36%, with Republican Dede Scozzafava (who withdrew from the race on Saturday) now getting just 6%.

But this might be the most interesting number: 18% are undecided -- a very large number with just a day before the election.

“With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race,” Siena's Steve Greenberg said. “The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night.”

The poll was taken of 606 likely voters in congressional district, and it has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

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Comments

This is exactly how Arlen Specter defected. And, in all truth, Joe Lieberman. The national party committee injects itself into the 'funding' and the candidates perceive a 'threat', they go into survival mode and do whatever they feel they have to to garner a win. As a Lib, I am not thrilled with either side for these tactics; but it seems consistent and not "unheard of". I think the voters of PA will have an opportunitiy to express their feelings on it next year and NY has an immediate opportunity to 'vote' their thoughts tomorrow.

Clara Kansas City, MO (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:25 AM)

If I was a voter in this district I would be voting against the far right wing of the tea baggers,the Freedomworks riders,and the Army of government haters,who love there SS checks,and there free medical,and fight for causes that they no little about,except what the right wing party leaders like Rush tell them to believe.If he say Guns,Bible,and Sarha they get all twisted.

Duddly Doright,Byou AL (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:40 AM)

41+36+6=?

17% undecided...the conservative is obviously going to win here, so why the false drama?

Bing Censored? (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:43 AM)

If the conservatives win, maybe the Republicans will draw conclusions from this race

Hopefully, they'll start nominating MORE EXTREMISTS

How about Marco Rubio instead of charlie Christ ?

Will extremists vote for Joe Lieberman next time around or will they demand a cross burner ?

If Republicans are driven further to the right, thy will be even less competitive in the future
Maybe Boner and Cantor will start seeming to 'establishment' for our Fix Noise crowd

Plus ca change....

Msierra, SF (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:45 AM)

Read from Sat blog that folks don't blieve losses for Dems is referendum on Obama. I think it's not just on obama; it's on the Dems as a whole. They print money like there's no tmoro; they're trying to cram an insance health care reform down the throats of Americans. Oh, yes, Viginia, there is payback!

Go Hoffman! (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:48 AM)

As a liberal voter, I am glad to see Palin taking over the party, that's better for us in 2010 and 2012. And did you catch Scarborough and the Right Wing Gang going on about how this is a referendum on Obama? He could hardly keep his giddiness in check! Revolting! Does he really think he's smarter than all his guests? I was waiting for Carl to eat him for breakfast, but he was way too polite to that buffoon.

In Va, obviously we had a less than stellar candidate in Deeds (though I think he would make an excellent Gov, he's not a great pol) but McDonnell has been running for four years. And for MJ to host that Rove/Delay look alike, Barbara Comstock, who is running for our state delegate in my district, was unbelievable! They should have also had Margaret Vanderheye, who is the Democratic incumbent on as well. But of course, no. MJ is just another right wing shill show with a really stupid host!

LB, Virginia (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:48 AM)

It is about time this country stands up and demands something different from its candidates. Why would anyone be driven to vote if the two options have identical views. It will be interesting to see if a third or even a 4th party develops.

Ken Garrett, Denver, CO (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:49 AM)

Conservatism wins every time it's tried. Look at what happened when McCain the liberal was the '08 Republican canidate. A far left candidate beat him easily. Hoffman is an example of what happens when a conservative is a choice in an election. It's nice to see NY-23, VA, and NJ lead the way.

Clay K, Chicago, IL (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:56 AM)

Since there hasn't been a Democrat elected in NY-23 in a hundred years, I hold out little hope of Owens winning.
That said, we real upstate New Yorkers (sorry folks, upstate is farther than the Catskills) don't like outsiders (Palin, Pawlenty et al) involving themselves in this manner.
Doug Hoffman can't even vote in the district he wants to represent. He has no clue of the local issues and good old Dick Armey went with him to hold his hand when the Watertown paper interviewed him. At that interview Mr. Hoffman complained that he should have been furnished questions in advance so he could "formulate" his answers. If he had read the morning paper, they pretty much laid out what he was going to be asked! Dick decided that local issues were parochial. Maybe in Texas they are, but not in Upstate NY!
There are conservatives and there are Tea Bagger conservatives. They spout off about the Constitution with out having a clue what it says or means ie. Glenn Beck think the $10 tax was for immigrants and thinking we should do that again, so coming here means something. IT WAS A SLAVE TAX! They scream about their rights all the while denouncing others! You have to think like them, agree agree them, pray like them.
Sort of like the Taliban.

Try the truth (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:56 AM)

41+36+6=?

17% undecided...the conservative is obviously going to win here, so why the false drama?
Bing Censored? (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:43 AM)

-----------------------------------------------

You assume too much...like, for instance, how do the undecideds feel about the concept of voting for a candidate who can not even vote for himself because he does not live in the district?

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:57 AM)

What is the point of using schoolyard taunts and trash-talk in your political ramblings folks? Are you singing to the choir, or just so impressed with your clever little nicknames for the other side?
Here's a ponder for you; If you begin your post with "you democRATS...", or "those teabaggers..."...who are you trying to reach? Isn't the point of a forum like this to debate the issues? There's nothing here but "fans" trash talking the opposition and patting themselves on the back for their ability to recite their big media master's talking points.
Diogenes only comes by occasionally, because nothing much changes here...sigh...:(

Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:59 AM)

Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:00 AM)

The crazy thing is that Hoffman doesn't even live in the district and knows very little about the local issues. It like Sarah Palin's run for Mayor when all she talked about was social issues and ended up winning and look how well that worked out for the town of Wassila talk about debt and nothing to show for it. If the NY 23rd is really concerned about local issues and what is best for them they need to vote for the candidate that knows about the district's needs, all politics are local! Your representive is vital to you receiving federal funding for local projects and services and representing YOU in the house. This person will be your federal voice make sure they have your best interests at heart. Pick the person that is best equiped to achieve this and not a mouth piece for Rush, Sarah and Newt who don't care about you and your problems. They only care about one thing THE SOUND OF THEIR OWN VOICE!!!!

Greg Chicago (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:02 AM)

The headline reads:
"BREAKING NEWS: Pending home sales at highest level in nearly 3 years; manufacturing also jumps"

OMG! TELEPROMPTER!
BIRTH CERTIFICATE!
BLAME BUSH!
BILL AYRES!
REV WRIGHT!
TEA BAGS!

Sean Hannity, the King of Insanity (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:04 AM)

Lb,,,,,,Agreed,,, could hardly stand Moran Joe while serfing this am.he sits there slamming the Dems about what they haven't done,or haven't done them to his liking,but we have to ask the human perkelator what did Joe do while in congress.He had to pull a Palin(quit before his tenure was up)because he couldn't keep willie zipped in,and when willie was caught(Not in zipper) he was forced to quit,ofr was it the dead woman that was found in his office,I would like the Moran to come out and tell the truth about the murder in his office.Maybe he and Miki could have a rib splitter talking about Joes "Willie walking days".

Truthfulville,Florida (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:07 AM)

".....If Republicans are driven further to the right, thy [sic] will be even less competitive in the future...."
-------------
How is this a rational statement when they're geared to win all three races tomorrow? The funny thing is that people are too lazy to get informed. They hear the noise coming from the right wing radicals that America is under assault and they regurgitate all the talking points without even doing their own research. Well, I guess this shouldn't be surprising. After all, almost 75% of the people supported the Iraq war when lies were being perpetuated. People are just too lazy to study for themselves. Just listen to some loons preying on their fears. Yep, let them come back strong because they didn't finish what they have started eight years ago. Yep, the country was so much better these last years. Yep, this Muslim in the White House is anti America, he will not wear a lapel pin, he will sing the national anthem, he will not take the oath on the Bible, he was born in Kenya, thus is not American. Oh, he hates America. That's why he's pushing all these diplomacy craps. We're not used to this crap! We're the big guy...we just command and everyone obeys. Bring on tough talking Mitt Romney. Oh, he looks like Reagan!

Doles, Miami, FL (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:08 AM)

The Priveleged class has exposed its one party system. It is time to run true progressives that represent the greater good against these capitolist conservatives. The middle of the road is only good for those who like the status quo. It is time to evolve

Judas Goat (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:09 AM)

Good for you, Ms. Scozzafava - thank you. It's about time someone put PEOPLE before PARTY. The American public is sick and tired of the backbiting, in-fighting and time-sucking antics of BOTH parties...

Let's let Obama do his job and LEAD this country because we overwhelming elected him. It's time Congress understands that we can replace them, WHATEVER their party or label is.

Shut up and get to work FIXING what the past 40 yrs or so has broken in this country!

Bug3t | Ruth, CA (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:11 AM)

Diogenes only comes by occasionally, because nothing much changes here...sigh...:( Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:00 AM)

*****

This post is 100% B.S. Free

FR B.S. Police (Alter Ego #2) (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:12 AM)

The priveleged class has exposed its two headed one party system. It is time to run true progressives that understand the greater good against these capitolist conservatives. No more moderates we need leaders. The time has come to evolve.

Judas Goat (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:12 AM)

I am looking for a candidate that will actually cut spending, not taxes. We are so far in debt we need to start paying it off. I want a candidate who will tell me how hard the next few years will be because we have been living beyond our means (Bush and Obama).

Now is the time to pay for the two unfunded wars, the unfunded Medicare D, and give up on a trillion dollar health care reform that covers people by telling them they must buy insurance.

Alan, NJ (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:13 AM)

You assume too much...like, for instance, how do the undecideds feel about the concept of voting for a candidate who can not even vote for himself because he does not live in the district?

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 10:57 AM)

Congratulations for parroting the left-wing talking points of the day here, but you missed #1A; He also did badly talking about local issues...

Next, a right-winger will add their media master's sound-bite and we will have what passed here for, "debate"...sigh...

Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:14 AM)

If 18% is the interesting number, and the Conservative is up by 5 points, that means the liberals needs to get 2 out of every 3 undecided to win.

Good luck with that.

Morte (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:15 AM)

Pete - Albany NY I get the feeling alot of posters here aren't from our state. I'm an upstate Western New Yorker, we don't like people coming telling us what and who is a Democrat, Republican, Conservative or Liberal. We know. The Palins of the world think they are the ones who should define everyone. Maybe some of these folks should read the Watertown paper, it's online. People are taking exception to the fact Hoffman can't even vote for himself, that these "conservatives" have decided who should represent the district. They can call Dede Scozzafava a liberal all they want. She is a moderate. She represents the people of that district. What many there are finally seeing is Hoffman is only being touted to slow down progress in Washington, another vote. He cares nothing for the people in the area, it's all ideology. These tea bagger "conservatives" can keep kicking people out of the party as far as I'm concerned, they will become even more of a minority than they are now.

Try the truth (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:20 AM)

Go Hoffman!: '...Read from Sat blog that folks don't blieve losses for Dems is referendum on Obama. I think it's not just on obama; it's on the Dems as a whole. They print money like there's no tmoro;...'

George Bush had Republican majorities in the House and Senate for 6 years
He managed to DOUBLE THE NATIONAL DEBT
What, exactly did the American people gain ?
What happened to all THAT MONEY ??

MSierra, SF (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:21 AM)

Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:14 AM)

welcome back good to see you.
I always like your insight even if i dont agree with it at least you make me think.

What_you_Selling (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:26 AM)

These tea bagger "conservatives" can keep kicking people out of the party as far as I'm concerned, they will become even more of a minority than they are now.

Try the truth (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:20 AM)

Another example...and an unintentionally amusing sobriquet to boot!...

Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:28 AM)

"Conservatism wins every time it's tried. Look at what happened when McCain the liberal was the '08 Republican canidate. A far left candidate beat him easily. Hoffman is an example of what happens when a conservative is a choice in an election. It's nice to see NY-23, VA, and NJ lead the way. "

Dear Clay K,

I'm afraid you are misinformed. It is moderates who decide elections, not the hard core fringe. McCain lost because of a miscalculation regarding we in the middle. He correctly saw that his moderate (called liberal by the far right) views weren't pulling in the conservative base. But he overestimated his ability to hold on to moderates after picking Palin. Her ability to push us away was stronger than his ability to push us away.

So while I understand the attempts by the right wing media to rewrite history and blame McCain's lack of conservatism for his loss, the truth is that it was his infussion of conservatism via his VP pick that doomed him.

Your fellow American,
Paul

Paul N - Hemet, CA (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:28 AM)

I grew up near Watertown, NY and now I live in Maine. I think the two regions are pretty similar. Hoffman could very well win, if the New Yorkers are feeling ornery. On the other hand, I was pleasantly surprised this morning to hear how many of my co-workers - many McCain voters in '08 - are voting No to repealing the marriage equality law. That's the North east Republican position in a nutshell: independent in all things, they think for themselves. Northern New Yorkers just might give it to the Democrat this time.

Amy B Portland, ME (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:31 AM)

For the Voters in NY 23. Only you can make this Choice. It is Hard Right...vs. Moderate. The Independent Voters will be the deciding factor in this race. I think the Republican Hoffman will pull it off, with most of you in NY23 living to regret it. If Hoffman wins, you are voting Tea Party Express over Issues. For myself, I'll take the Issues anyday, and save my Tea Break (without Dick Armey) for Sunday Afternoons.

Barbara - Fort Lauderdale, FL (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:33 AM)

Try the Truth: They can call Dede Scozzafava a liberal all they want. She is a moderate. She represents the people of that district.

Scozzafava is not a moderate Republican, she is a liberal Democrat. I know Halloween just passed, but Dede was doing nothing more then playing dress-up.

The Truth (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:35 AM)

Paul N - Hemet CA: McCain lost because of a miscalculation regarding we in the middle.

McCain lost because he wasn't the Republican candidate, George Bush was. Oh, and that historical thing with Obama. Obama is an accidental president. He was just there at the time the country wanted something else. Now that the country see's what that something else is, they'll not make that same mistake next time.

Greg T., Nebraska (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:39 AM)

How is this a rational statement when they're geared to win all three races tomorrow? The funny thing is that people are too lazy to get informed. They hear the noise coming from the right wing radicals that America is under assault and they regurgitate all the talking points without even doing their own research. Well, I guess this shouldn't be surprising. After all, almost 75% of the people supported the Iraq war when lies were being perpetuated. People are just too lazy to study for themselves. Just listen to some loons preying on their fears. Yep, let them come back strong because they didn't finish what they have started eight years ago. Yep, the country was so much better these last years. Yep, this Muslim in the White House is anti America, he will not wear a lapel pin, he will sing the national anthem, he will not take the oath on the Bible, he was born in Kenya, thus is not American. Oh, he hates America. That's why he's pushing all these diplomacy craps. We're not used to this crap! We're the big guy...we just command and everyone obeys. Bring on tough talking Mitt Romney. Oh, he looks like Reagan! Doles, Miami, FL

Wow talk about to lazy to be informed. Hey Doles it's time to take down the tin foil off the windows, turn off Fox news,shut off the crazy conspiracy websites and get out of your mother's basement.

Greg Chicago (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:41 AM)

Scozzafava is not a moderate Republican, she is a liberal Democrat. I know Halloween just passed, but Dede was doing nothing more then playing dress-up.

She is obviously both a moderate republican and a liberal democrat, this is what I like to call a puppet of the priveleged. It doesnt matter what party they are from they all bow to the same masters.

Judas Goat (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:43 AM)

I always like your insight even if i dont agree with it at least you make me think.

What_you_Selling (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:26 AM)

That is the highest compliment one can receive in an opinion forum, so perhaps it is time for Diogenes to quit while he's still got his head...

I am certain that some, if not many here long for observations that make them think and discourse that provides more light than heat...

Diogenes (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:44 AM)

Whatever side of the fence you come down on it would be more effective to elect an unconnected and unowned third party candidate that is either a true conservative or a true progressive than it would be to elect a connected owned moderate. In order to effect change we must elect leaders that are not shackled by their corrupt keepers from both parties. The only thing a moderate gives you is status quo, so unless you like things just as they are, take a stand.

Judas Goat (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:00 PM)

The Truth: Scozzafava is not a moderate Republican, she is a liberal Democrat. I know Halloween just passed, but Dede was doing nothing more then playing dress-up.

Oh, dear I forgot! The party that believes in less Govt intrusion in peoples lives, feels they get an exception when it comes to others choices in having a baby and who they choose to marry! There are more moderates in this country, while I consider myself pro life, it's not up to me to make a choice for another, and I respect their decision. Sorry you don't understand the very concepts your party WAS about! Personal freedom without Government interference!

Try the truth (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:07 PM)

NY23 voter...eenie, meenie, miney, mo, I wonder just how to go.

eagle1776 (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:11 PM)

Much to the dismay of the 24/7 news services the local elections on the East coast are found by the majority of the country boring and irrelevant, there are national issues of far more importance that could be covered dudes.

MK,MO (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:17 PM)

When the choices we make as individuals effect the amount of taxes we must pay then the greater good MUST be considered. Is it fair for portions of our citizentry to, through poor decisions, put undue burden on the rest of the citizentry?

Judas Goat (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:19 PM)

The poll did NOT include Scozzafava's endorsement

Here's the actual question:

As you may have heard, yesterday Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign for Congress, although by law her name will remain on the ballot. Scozzafava said she released those individuals supporting her campaign to transfer their support as they see fit.

tietack (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:24 PM)

The poll did NOT include Scozzafava's endorsement

tietack

The numbers will shift further to the conservative when they take a poll that includes that fact.

A lesson here - you shouldn't run a Republican that is further to the left then the liberal Democrat who is running in the same race.

JP Trapp, Illinois (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:57 PM)

"I'm afraid you are misinformed. It is moderates who decide elections, not the hard core fringe. McCain lost because of a miscalculation regarding we in the middle. He correctly saw that his moderate (called liberal by the far right) views weren't pulling in the conservative base. But he overestimated his ability to hold on to moderates after picking Palin. Her ability to push us away was stronger than his ability to push us away.

So while I understand the attempts by the right wing media to rewrite history and blame McCain's lack of conservatism for his loss, the truth is that it was his infussion of conservatism via his VP pick that doomed him."

Paul N,

What is a moderate? Are they part of the 18% undecided? You can have the moderates. I'll take the conservative independents.

Hoffman was endorsed by Palin and his numbers spiked in the NY-23 polls. Conservatives know she's effective based on the reaction from the liberals. The only smart thing McCain did was pick Palin. had he been smart enough to vote against TARP, he may of had a chance to win.

Clay K (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 12:58 PM)

McCain lost because he wasn't the Republican candidate, George Bush was. Oh, and that historical thing with Obama. Obama is an accidental president. He was just there at the time the country wanted something else. Now that the country see's what that something else is, they'll not make that same mistake next time. Greg T., Nebraska (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 11:39 AM)

----------------------------------------------------

McCain lost because he ran as someone other than who we knew him as. If he would have run as the McCain from 2004 and picked a viable running mate, he would've stood a chance. He reversed on many of his prior position and ran as a polarized candidate.

He bore no resemblence to the moderate McCain we knew prior to announcing he was running for president.

If they put out a candidate in 2012 that is any thing close to the current state of the GOP, then they will laughed off the podium.

Greg P. NW Indiana (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 1:16 PM)

I actually think this race is up in the air. Scozzafava's actions gave it an interesting twist. I think NY-23 voters know a carpetbagger (Hoffman) when they see one. Sure the place has been Republican for 150 years, but it doesn't mean they won't choose the wrong candidate. Hoffman is the wrong candidate. It's likely to be a moot point anyway when redistricting occurs. This is a totally 'hold your nose and vote for the lesser of evils' contest now. I think Owens will be the better candidate.

D Ray Eugene, OR (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 1:23 PM)

All you 17%ers. Do not forget what the Conservatives did the last 8 years. NOTHING FOR THE MIDDLE CLASS, EVERYTHING FOR THE RICH !!!! DON'T DRINK THE KOOLAID!!!

SAM, LITTLETON, COLORADO (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 2:12 PM)

If they put out a candidate in 2012 that is any thing close to the current state of the GOP, then they will laughed off the podium.
Greg P. NW Indiana (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 1:16 PM)

###################

Don't speak to soon.....Sorta' reminds you of yourself....we laugh at your ignorant "Its Bush's fault" rants everyday.......

IntheMiddle, TX (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 2:27 PM)

IntheMiddle, TX (Sent Monday, November 02, 2009 2:29 PM)

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