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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



VA: Indie warning signs for Dems

Posted: Tuesday, November 03, 2009 7:05 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democrats should heed a warning inside the numbers in the Virginia gubernatorial race -- independent drift and a significant drop off among young voters.

In 2008, candidate Obama won independent voters in Virginia, 49%-48%, according to exit polls. But the exits in this year's contest show that independents abandoned Creigh Deeds (D) and went overwhelmingly for the Republican, Bob McDonnell, 65%-34%.

Voters, age 18-29, made up more than one in every five voters in 2008 (21%) in Virginia. This year, they made up just 10%. They broke 60%-39% for Obama, but went for McDonnell, 54%-45%.

By contrast, older voters (65+) made up more of the electorate this time around in Virginia. In 2008, voters 65 and older made up 11% of the electorate; in 2009, 18%. They broke for the Republican both times -- in 2008, 53%-46% for John McCain; in 2009, 59%-41% for McDonnell.

Additionally, there was a five-point dropoff among black voters from 2008. Black voters made up a whopping 20% of all Virginia voters when Obama was on the ballot. This time, though, they made up 16%.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: The exit poll data have been updated after a third wave; the above post has been adjusted accordingly.]

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Comments

Until these people vote for REAL values, then they have no hope whatsoever of being relevant again
Saint Dick, Dallas, TX (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 6:58 PM)

You're welcome, Dick!! How people view Ronald Reagan, that is the one's with ZERO CLUE, is somewhere betweein ignorance and insanity!!

Reagan, until Dumbya, was the worst president this country ever had!!

They voted for OBAMA.
 He's a phenomenon. What young person would get excited over either of the VA candidates?
I would hope that all people would take notice and give consideration to the principle that people need to take responsibility for themselves, and not expect and rely on the obamanator's slush fund of 'tax' money stolen from hard-working Americans.
My Daughter called me from Virginia this evening and she said the conservatives were dominate at the polls. She also said most she comes into contact with are fed up with Obama's and the dem's failure to deliver results.
Nice to see Eric Cantor has studied his GOP Talking Points for the evening!
So Eric Cantor believes that if Bob McDonnell wins tonight it is a clear rejection of President Obama's policies but when asked if Mark Warner's election in 2001 was a clear rejection of President Bush's policies he refuses to answer?
Uh O!
A year ago Virginia went Bright Blue for Obama. Rant all you want that VA elects a Gov of the opposite party, but the Democrats lost 40 some points to the Republicans in a year.
A year ago Virginia went Bright Blue for Obama. Rant all you want that VA elects a Gov of the opposite party, but the Democrats lost 40 some points to the Republicans in a year.
TJ Wells, VA (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 7:46 PM)

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...and what if the exit polling is correct?  60% said that they did not vote in Virginia based on President Obama or his policies.  What if that number is right?
A year ago Virginia went Bright Blue for Obama. Rant all you want that VA elects a Gov of the opposite party, but the Democrats lost 40 some points to the Republicans in a year.
TJ Wells, VA (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 7:46 PM)

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"Bright blue"?  Obama won Virginia by 6 last year.  Smells like a swing state to me.
Creigh Deeds.  As hard to elect as to pronounce his name.  The Dems had NO chance of winning as soon as this nominee was placed on the ballot.
FIRST READ & MSNBC, I'll tell you again.  Post all comments written, even the ones that may be embarassing for you.  We you audience deserves better than this blog.  You're working, you just put these threads up.  So post the comments.
MSNBC, I'm as far to the left as you can get; however, please stop making excuses for what this Democratic Congress, and President Obama, has failed to do!!

Chuck Todd wrote the most ridiculous article yesterday, trying to head off any criticism that, God forbid, may be directed at the democrats, and specifically, President Obama!!

The most ridiculous statement in his article was this one:  "The elected official who most needs to do this is President Obama. He needs a veto of some Democratic, pork-filled bill. Or a high-profile firing. The fact is there are a lot of "change" voters from 2008 who are still looking for change. Many of these voters are angry independents."

NO, Mr. Todd, or as a good friend of mine calls him, "that font of wisdom," MANY of these voters are angry democrats upset with President Obama for dragging his feet on campaign promises near and dear to those who voted for him!! What he needs to do is get moving!! DODT, Gitmo, HCR, bringing our troops home, etc. etc. etc.!! PLEASE!!

Seriously!! Okay, Mr. Todd, just fire some high-profile cabinet person for the heck of it and that will surely make everything swell!!

OR, bring the troops home, end DODT, close Gitmo and demand a public option in HCR!! How about one of THOSE things, Mr. Todd?!?!

Sheesh!!

I nearly fell off my chair when I read that ridiculous statement!!

Nice try, Mr. Todd; however, no one is buying your crapola!!

For things to turn around for President Obama, the democrats in Congress MUST stand up to the rethugs, and President Obama MUST fulfill what he promised while campaigning!!
As a Virginian who never votes Republican, I am sure that I am not alone as someone that was furious about the Democrat's horrible campaign that lacked moral compass. Cree Deeds tried to out-Republican the Republican. He lost badly, and dragged the rest of the ticket down the commode.

Deeds pandered and the Democrats floundered. Shameful and spineless.

If he would have come out swinging, publicly advocating a financial culture of responsibility that requires a balanced budget, he would have had traction.

Yes, this would have involved pushing for raising the gas tax and other necessary revenue enhancements. The gas tax has gone DOWN (in inflation-adjusted terms) more than 50% over the last 20 years, and the state is in a financial mess now, at least partially as a result. A dime per gallon gas tax increase would do wonders (thank you out-of-state drivers just passing through for your contribution :)).

The Republicans talk "I will lower your taxes", but ask them about where they will cut spending, and you will likely get a blank stare.



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