First thoughts: Last night's lessons

Posted: Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:21 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Last Night’s Lessons: What a difference a year makes. Exactly a year to the day when Barack Obama celebrated his presidential victory in Grant Park and Democrats picked up additional seats in the House and Senate, Republicans are now basking in their gubernatorial sweep from last night. In Virginia, as expected, Bob McDonnell (R) crushed Creigh Deeds (D). And in that close contest in New Jersey, challenger Chris Christie (R) bested incumbent Jon Corzine (D). Yet in perhaps the most surprising result of the night, Bill Owens (D) ended up beating third-party candidate Doug Hoffman in that NY-23 special election after conservatives forced the moderate GOP nominee to withdraw from the race. As we've written, the lessons from last night's contests have been evident for quite some time. And how 2010 and 2012 turn out could very well depend on which party does a better -- or poorer -- job of learning from them.

*** Lesson No. 1: Democrats Lost Indies: For the White House, last night's exit polls confirmed that the outcomes weren't exactly a referendum on President Obama. But they also provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.

*** Lesson No. 2: Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.

*** Lesson No. 3: Incumbents, Watch Out: Another takeaway from last night was that it wasn’t a good night to be an incumbent -- or a wealthy self-funder. After outspending his GOP opponent 3-1 (and 2-1 when you included money from the parties), Jon Corzine lost in New Jersey. More surprisingly, Michael Bloomberg (I) won by only five percentage points after spending some $100 million (!!!) against his under-funded Democratic challenger. The House, Senate, and gubernatorial incumbents running for re-election next year better figure out how to run as the outsider.

*** Lesson No. 4: Ideological Civil Wars Don’t Help You Win Elections: In NY-23, Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a district they’ve controlled since the 19th century after prominent conservatives -- Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Club for Growth, Tea Party organizers -- backed the more conservative candidate (Hoffman), which eventually forced the moderate GOP nominee (Scozzafava) to withdraw from the race. That enabled the Democrat (Owens) to win, 49%-45%, with Scozzafava becoming the spoiler by getting 6%. Ponder this: Was it a better night to be a Republican running toward the middle, or a conservative running on base issues? Consider the NY 23 result and the fact that BOTH anti-tax initiatives on the ballot in Maine and Washington went down... Also consider that McDonnell and Christie didn't run AGAINST the president but hugged the middle; Christie's victory speech, in fact, was a page out of the Obama playbook. (Literally, he used the phrase "turn the page" and said hope and opportunity a few times). By the way, the GOP now controls just two out of New York's 29 congressional districts and it has lost six seats Upstate NY since 2006. It holds no seats in New England, just one in traditionally conservative Upstate New York, and one out in Long Island.

Video: Chuck Todd breaks down the 2009 election results and what they mean to President Obama and the Democratic Party.

*** History repeats itself: After a while, you can’t dismiss these trends: Yesterday became the NINTH-consecutive time (since 1977) that the party that won the White House lost Virginia’s gubernatorial contest the following year. And yesterday became the SIXTH-consecutive time (since 1989) that the party controlling the White House lost New Jersey’s gov race. Whether due to buyer’s remorse, happenstance, or a combination of the two, those trends should give all us pause in making broad statements about last night’s two contests -- and what they mean for the White House, the midterms, or the next presidential contest.

*** Hailing Haley: If there was one big winner from last, it was Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and his Republican Governors Association. In what turned out to be a brilliant move, the RGA ran TV ads attacking independent Chris Daggett. What happened? Daggett got just 6% of the vote, which was down considerably from the double digits he was receiving in polls just a week or two ago. As one very smart Democratic pollster told First Read, Corzine’s best path to victory was having Daggett get 12% of the vote, enabling Corzine to win with at 45%. As it turns out, Corzine got his 45%. But with Daggett getting only 6%, that’s how Christie was able to win, 49%-45%.

*** Grading the party committees: The RGA and DCCC can both say they went 2-0 last night, as the DCCC won in NY-23 and CA-10. NRCC Chair Pete Sessions needs to hope activists are so euphoric about Virginia and New Jersey that they don't decide to hold Sessions accountable for the fact that Scozzafava turned out to be the spoiler for Hoffman. Also, DNC Chair Tim Kaine is going to have to explain how Deeds was not just outspent in Kaine's home state, but why the committee didn't step in when it was crystal clear the campaign was a problem MONTHS ago. To some Democrats, there's an appearance that Kaine's DNC gave up on Virginia so early that it created a snowball effect that clobbered the party up and down the ballot.

*** The White House/Pelosi/Reid healthcare challenge: Incumbent Democrats will read the Corzine loss and the independent-voter slaughter in both swing Virginia and blue New Jersey as a sign they need to go a LOT slower on health care and energy. The Washington Dem leadership is going to have to figure out how to convince some skeptical Blue Dogs and conservative Democrats that passing something is better than passing nothing. It's going to be an argument that heats up big time, as Democratic activists argue the Virginia result is more about a depressed base than it is about an angry middle. Pelosi didn't have the votes for health care yesterday, is she farther away today? On the other hand, does getting health care passed actually boost Obama’s (and Democrats’) numbers?

*** Just askin’: If supporters of same-sex marriage couldn’t win ballot initiatives in deep-blue California (in an election Democrats overwhelmingly won) and in Maine, where can they win?

*** Obama’s day: President Obama today leaves Washington for Wisconsin, where he will give a speech on education at 2:30 pm ET. Here’s a little political trivia for you. In 2004, Wisconsin was the closest state in the presidential election, going to John Kerry by just 0.38 percentage points over George W. Bush. But, in 2008, Obama won it by almost 14 percentage points (56.2% to 42.3%) over John McCain. It was the largest margin of victory in Wisconsin by any presidential candidate since 1964 when Johnson defeated Goldwater 62%-38%. The state was also a key primary victory for Obama, whose political home state of Illinois shares a border with Wisconsin.

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 34 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 76 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 363 days

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Comments

A year ago I witnessed one of our country’s greatest achievements. Today I see us on the brink of not only cultural and political revolution, but also malaise, laziness and negativity. For a while longer we will have to hear and read about this being a referendum on President Obama. Like hell it’s a report card on President Obama! The ownership of these moments is solely ours. It’s our report card.

These moments are about you and I becoming soft, and constantly falling prey to negativity, fear and smear, and stupidity. From the moment President Obama was elected, everyone started tearing him down. FR is no exception. Ever notice how often FR and the MSM refer to him as Obama vice President Obama?

How can we claim to be the greatest nation on earth, when we are so dumb and stupid? We already know that 20% of the country aligns with the reactionary right, so that means at least another 30% of your fellow citizens fall prey to fear and smear, and are not intelligent enough to see the shortcomings of the wing nuts, FR and the MSM. Do me a favor today, count how many lead reactions you will see from the Limbaugh right, etc. Then tell me they don’t control the media. Why do we spend 80% of our time on 20% of the problem? I’ll tell you why, it’s because we are stupid. Ever hear the phrase if BS were water, then you would be the whole damn ocean? Cut and paste this into everything GOP.

But that’s okay. One thing that was validated yesterday is the President’s approval numbers. What the new dumb America did not validate yesterday was the failure of the reactionary right and the GOP across the board. Why is that? Their pitiful sink Obama agenda at all costs is disgusting.

To independents and my fellow Democrats, wake-up and fight. Our laziness allowed these folks to get back in the game. Our stupidity was in believing America would change. What is most gut-wrenching is watching the further decline of our country right before my eyes. Greatest nation on earth? Not so much. Go look in the mirror. If you are honest, you might see what I have been talking about.

Chuck, WA (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:24 AM)

Independent candidates almost always poll higher than their actual totals on election night, so no surprise there...

Bing Censored? (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:24 AM)

*** Lesson No. 1: Democrats Lost Indies: For the White House, last night's exit polls confirmed that the outcomes weren't exactly a referendum on President Obama. But they also provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.

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Questions:

With the GOP crowing about Independent voters flocking towards McDonnell and Christie, how many of those in exit polling who identified themselves as Independents would have identified themselves as Republicans just 1 or 2 years ago?

Is this a true change in the direction of Independents or are there more people identifying themselves as Independents because they do not wish to identify themselves as Republicans?

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:26 AM)

Ron’s Analysis:

When you look at a Rorschach ink blot, you see whatever you want to see. Victory is what you want it to be. McDonnell easily won in Virginia and he should have won. Virginia has a history of voting for Republicans and Deeds was a weak candidate. The golden nugget from that election is that Deeds opposed the Public Option in HCR, perhaps to gain GOP support. Blue dog senators take note. HCR is a defining issue and voters are paying attention.

As a sitting Governor, the Democrats were stuck with Corzine. He was not the poster child for integrity and honesty so it is not a surprise he lost. Lesson for the Democrats…Pick stronger candidates.

Republicans lost in NY-23. You lose if you don’t back your candidate and support a conservative interloper. It is not surprising that the Republican candidate supported Owen (D). Specter did it when he left the GOP. It has to hurt when you decide to be a candidate, work your butt off, get leadership endorsements, and then abandoned by your own.

Will conservatives continue the practice of undercutting moderate GOP candidates? Yes, seeking ideological purity is in their DNA. Watch out Crist and Romney…you are next.

Grass Roots Conservatives:

A novel idea that perhaps should be taken seriously. The Obama nation knows the importance of ground troops, as we learned how to become community organizers. It’s fair to say the conservatives worked harder in these elections than did the progressive. But bigger questions have to do with the mood of the nation. There are many who are unhappy with government’s stalemate mentality. People are unhappy with bonuses for bankers, wealthy politicians not working on behalf of the middle class…and the Republicans being the party of “”No”.

Conservatives should take no comfort that discontent toward Washington is automatically support for Republican causes. In order for there to be sustainable grass roots conservative movement, they must generate positive solutions for America’s problems. Currently they are still lacking in that department. Do they have a HCR package (Not yet)? A solution to the nation’s energy issues (Not yet)? A plan for immigration solutions (Not yet)? Just voting “No”, carrying signs shouting Socialism, with tea bags stapled to their hats, and guns strapped to the belts will not get them to the promised land..

Ron Indiana (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:26 AM)

Progressives, just ignore those results from last night. Obama campaigning for those Democrats that lost means absolutely nothing. Those two Democrats running for governor were damaged good and no amount of campaigning from the Great One, Barack H. Obama, was going to make a difference. Obama is still popular, so keep doing what you are doing Progressives. America really wants big government controlled health care, high taxes, persistent unemployment, and a week economy. America wants the government bailing out the banks, the car makers, and the insurance companies. America wants wars to continue on the other side of the Earth, and in fact to have those wars ramp up even more. America is behind Obama 110%, and be sure to run on his record next year. What could go wrong with that plan?

Casey Rodgers, CT (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:27 AM)

Ouch!! The Messiah did NOT watch the results?? LOL Right Gibbs. Read the Arena article entitled "Attention Washington: Tea Parties DO Work" Washington did their best to demean and downplay the 9/12 movement calling them just a small group or right wing zanies... not even a blip on the radar... etc etc... well they are serving notice now!!! This is OUR house and you ain't paid the rent in 9 months!!!

Obamainator (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:28 AM)

The Democrats - Clubbed like a harp seal . . .

Rex Populi, NY (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:28 AM)

Christie won in NJ? How does that happen? First, Christie wasn't much of a candidate. Second, Corzine was the incumbent in a state run by the SEIU, ACORN, and MoveOn. Corzine out spent Christie 3-1, and another conservative candidate, Daggert jumped into the race, was polling well, and taking votes away from Christie. Yet Corzine lost!

Tate (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:30 AM)

Certainly a wake up call to the Democrats. But they'll probably just hit the snooze button.

Annie Taylor, Nevada (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:30 AM)

I think I'm going to stay away from this blog today. The spinning from both sides is going to be ridiculous. Dems will trumpet NY23 and downplay NJ and VA, while Republicans do just the opposite. Personally, I think it was a good thing that Hoffman lost NY23. We need to put up candidates with broader appeal if we are to win elections. I'd rather have someone I agree with 60% of the time win, then have a coin flip between someone I agree with 10% of the time and someone I agree with 90% of the time. All that the intraparty fight in NY23 did was give Nancy Pelosi another vote.

Frank "Grimey" Grimes, Springfield, USA (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:31 AM)

Whether due to buyer’s remorse, happenstance, or a combination of the two, those trends should give all us pause in making broad statements about last night’s two contests -- and what they mean for the White House, the midterms, or the next presidential contest.
___________________

Which ever one of you who wrote this: THANK YOU!

I've been laughing all morning at the Republican'ts pounding their chests!

And what I find even more alarming (lol lol) is all of a sudden the NY 23 race is no longer of any significance! As of yesterday that was going to be their 'crown jewel' lol lol lol... now... eh! Not a peep out of them!

That race speaks volumes about the fact not only has it been a Republican't strong hold for more than 100 years... but even those constiuents were willing to elect a WHACK JOB!

Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:31 AM)

Congradulations to the republicans on your victory, but lets please put this in perspective. The govenor wins mean nothing on the national stage.
How is a republican govenor in NJ going to lower the unemployement in NV. where I live, How is a republican govenor in VA going to help get HCR passed in the U.S. Congress?
The big upset was the NY 23rd, because that adds another seat to the dems in the U.S. Congress where anoter D vote will really count.
Not to mention that Sarah got smacked down big time. Hey repubs, anyone else want to get endorsed by Palin in next years races? should work out good for ya.

justthinkinoutloud (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:31 AM)

Tick Tock Tick Tock

Wake up call for Mr. Barack Obama!

No, not time to play golf, like ususal.

Time to act and become a leader who produces results.

Quit talking so much and make things happen.

This is truly only the beginning for the movement to eliminate the mistake of Biden/Obama 08.

No celebrating these victories, the wave will continue.....2010, 2012

American's realize they were duped by the DNC.

Josh Larson, FL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:32 AM)

Love seeing that gleam of hope in Republican eyes again . . . so much better than blind hate and paranoia! lol

Congrats to our new Republican governors . . . one request guys . . . PLEASE don't play politics with folks lives like the current Republican governors . . . its so annoying to see ya'll blasting the stimulus out of one side of you mouths and passing out checks behind your backs.

That's all I ask - just tell the truth. Please?

P.S. Also nice to see the media passing out all these "lessons" for President Obama . . . feels good doesn't it guys! You haven't had this much fun since those weekly lessons on how to appeal to "working class" white folks, have ya? :)

I know anytime there is anything even slightly negative for the President, at least 25% of the country (plus the media) REJOICES! :)

So here is a BIG BOWL of BUTTERY POPCORN for you all!

Enjoy your day . . . you won something . . . the crazy forces that want the government "of the people" to actually "help the people" have been FOILED AGAIN!

CELEBRATE!

Nashville_fan (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:32 AM)

Ahhh, I luv the smell of victory in the morning!

And what a victory it was. Not only did the Republicans win the governorship in Democratic New Jersey, but they trounced – overwhelmingly trounced – the Dems in Virginia. And in Virginia it wasn’t just the governorship, it was the lt. governor and attorney general as well – a clean resounding sweep for Republicans. Oh, and did I mention that independents broke 2:1 for McDonnell in Virginia? Yup, that little factoid will keep a few Dems up at night.

The left of course will spin yesterday’s results with the ‘all politics is local’ idea, particularly since we’re only talking about a handful of elections a full year before the 2010 midterms. And in general, I would be inclined to agree with them. But looking at the Virginia results, it’s hard not to be impressed with what the Republicans have accomplished and what the Democrats have squandered in one short year.

Say what you will about these elections not being a referendum on Obama, the fact of the matter is McDonnell ran a strong campaign with an emphasis on jobs and practical solutions to Virginia’s problems that would not require raising taxes. He owned those issues and not only won, but in so doing also provided a model that Republicans all across the country can follow.

The left of course likes to pretend that Republicans have nothing to say, are purging everyone from the party except an extremist fringe, and win can only win votes by campaigning on fear and negativity. HA!! The Republican message of fiscal conservatism, small government and economic freedom is a message that can win anywhere because that message IS the middle. You don’t get 60% of the vote in Virginia or 49% of the vote in New Jersey by being a fringe candidate that scares people. So take your lumps lefties, they’re well deserved. And be prepared to take a few more going forward.

By the way, I wonder how many Blue Dog Dems are thinking hard about their position on HCR this morning. Just askin’.

Bill, Fairfax, VA (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:32 AM)

Oh, btw-anything happening in those places, what are they again, Afghanistan? Iraq?...

Bing Censored? (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:33 AM)

Democrats campaigned FOR the Republican challenger to defeat the Conservative candidate. The Republican who withdrew had 6%. 140,000 robo calls by the dems for the republican. Talk about sheer desperation!

Gut check anyone?

Ed Crane, Middlebury, IN (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:33 AM)

FR: The better question is: Why are the rights of individuals up to popular vote in ANY state for ANY reason??

Joe - STL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:33 AM)

moderate GOP nominee (Scozzafava) - the MSM still doesn't get it - the lady wasn't even a RINO, she was a far left liberal with an "R" after her name. Fool me once........ Charlie Crist

Tony, Orange Park, FL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:35 AM)

The Democrats need health care reform to expand the base of the party:
“Now we have the unions (largest DNC PAC contributor), we have the gambling (state lottery and casino taxes) and they're the best things to have. But narcotics (healthcare) is a thing of the future. And if we don't get a piece of that action, we risk everything we have. I mean not now, but, ah, ten years from now.”

T. Hagen- Democratic Advisor and Consiglieri (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:35 AM)

Look, it is interesting to spin the results of any race. But you at First Read are really reaching on this one. First...I would not have voted for Corzine. He should have stepped out, he was damaged goods. Second, Deeds in Virginia was a disaster as a candidate, and he is another one that pretty much convinced voters that he was simply not up to the job. They ran the wrong candidate there. The NY 23 race was interesting only in the sense that it pointed up in LARGE letters what pompous idiots the Glenn Beck crowd are. Seriously, who thought that guy was a good idea? Mental midgets all. I think the funniest part of that race is the idiot in chief Hoffman can't wrap his mind around the idea that he was going to lose that race, mainly because he is a LOSER! Gay marriage is coming. People had better get used to the idea, because it is making incremental strides. And the Fourteenth Amendment is what is going to change outlawing marriage for this group of citizens.

newdayDAWNING (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:37 AM)

Reading the posts over the last couple of days trying so desperately to make yesterday’s election a referendum on President Obama is really so laughable. The only thing we can truly take away from yesterday is a massive Anti-Incumbent sentiment. President Obama was given very large majorities last year and nothing from yesterday’s election was a game changer. In fact, NY-23 helped us pick up another house vote FOR healthcare.
The fact that the Washington/Beltway is misreading the mood of the country SO horribly is the only thing of interest here. Americans are SICK of all of this gridlock and BS. We want our government showing up every day, earning their pay and making an honest effort to do the People’s work. That is what last November was about, that is what this November is about, and I guarantee you – it will be what next November is about. “NO” is not a policy or a sincere attempt to move the ball (dialogue) to a victory for the American People. Lawrence O’Donnell was spot on today on MJ. PS. John Grisham was a fascinating guest, as well.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
And from yesterday:
Cicero (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 10:40 AM)
Although I don’t agree with you on much of anything, you do seem to have an honest grasp of the issues. I enjoy reading what you have to say mainly because you seem more pragmatic and dare I say, “balanced”? Keep posting.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
“…But who's afraid of Virginia Foxx?” Houston (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 1:31 PM)

Apparently the Foxx is watching the hen house.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
“…What do you think will happen if the current minority ever regains the upper hand?...Sigh...” Diogenes (Sent Tuesday, November 03, 2009 12:55 PM)"

That’s a pretty big “IF” there, Skippy.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Oh, and a PS. In keeping of the spirit and tone of this board, I have one question for Bob McDonnell:

Where are the jobs? You've been elected for 12 hours now and I don't see where you've created any jobs, Bob. Was that just campaign rhetoric?

Clara Kansas City, MO (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:38 AM)

My heroes today are Dede Scozzafava for keeping her name on the ballot and the folk that live in NY23, who recognized Mr. Hoffman as an opportunistic carpetbagger and sent him packing. Hoffman looks just like the puppet in the movie “Magic”. In keeping with that theme, he would have made a good, obedient “dummy” while Palin, Limbaugh, and Beck, hands firmly up his butt, told him what to do and what to say.

I listened all night while the commentators stated over and over again that the Republican wins were a referendum on the President. Nothing could be further from the truth and Willie Geist had the stats on Way Early to prove it. Even more telling of the media’s bias is how silent they are about Palin’s disastrous interference in NY23. Thanks to her, a 100 year Repub stronghold went to a Dem. Way to Go Sarah! Before you’re done, the Republican Party will be more narrow, more ineffective and more cannibalistic than ever. Keep up the good work!

J. Ellis, Virginia (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:39 AM)

It took Obama 8 months to make America see the need for change......

Barack Insane Obama, on the fast train to nowhere at our expense and our children's

Kathy, Charlotte (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:40 AM)

While the GOP can tout big wins from last night, I wouldn't be so quick to call them "back".

1. Check the exit polling data in Virginia and New Jersey that says that President Obama was not a factor in the way they voted.

2. The GOP lost another seat in a district that it held for a long time. That's 2 in a row in Congressional elections that were supposed to have been a referendum on President Obama's policies.

3. While it's clear that Haley Barbour has the RGA's house in order, the NRCC still has a lot of work to do with Dede Scozzafava's withdrawl from NY-23 and the loss by Doug Hoffman after they had to throw their support behind him.

4. If you're looking ahead to 2012 Presidential nominees, the following people are off to poor starts:

*Sarah Palin - Doug Hoffman lost NY-23 while Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell won NJ and Virginia by keeping her away.

*Newt Gingrich - Dede Scozzafava's abandonment by conservatives and withdrawl from the race in spite of his support begs the question as to whether or not he's lost his touch.

*Tim Pawlenty - Joe Scarborough and Chuck Todd said it best this morning...Tim Pawlenty was left holding onto the headlight on the bandwagon for Doug Hoffman. Hardly the mark of a leader.

Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:40 AM)

Oh, I forgot to mention Ed Norton's "For the People" HBO documentary was INCREDIBLE!

Those were some good times! Excellent footage. Robert Gibbs' son was adorable!

Clara Kansas City, MO (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:41 AM)

For the Republicans. Yippy! You won NJ and VA! *happy dance* NOW, who actually has more influence when it comes to national policies? Governors or Congressmen? *crickets*

Try the truth (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:41 AM)

A couple lessons that FR missed:

1. If you're a Republican, run as a moderate conservative, not as a wingnut teabagger. The Repub governor candidates in Va. and NJ ran as moderate conservatives. The clown in NY 23 was a wingnut, whose major accomplishment was achieving a Democratic victory in a district that had been Republican since the Civil War.

2. If you want Obama's votes, don't run as a conservadem the way Deeds did in Virginia. The younger voters and minority groups who put Obama in office are NOT going to be fired up and ready to go by a clone of Joe Lieberman.

Houston (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:42 AM)

Dear Bill, Fairfax VA:

Nope. Not gonna spin it at all . . . Republicans won FAIR and SQUARE!

Now, do us all a favor and use all those brilliant ideas you guys keep telling us you have to SOLVE SOME PROBLEMS and GOVERN!

It's put up or shut up time folks, so bring your A GAMES!

Nashville_fan (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:42 AM)

How many people will die today as a result of Obama's political posturing to try and protect his politcial concerns?

How many people will die today as a result of Obama's political posturing to try and protect his politcial concerns?

The Obama lie of being careful is also being seen as transparent, a clear deception for political concerns.

The Obama lie of being careful is also being seen as transparent, a clear deception for political concerns.

Me Re Peat, Doster, GA (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:43 AM)

Oh, one more lesson from last night and CHRIS MATTHEWS, PAY ATTENTION!! Again! TIM PAWLENTY IS AS BIG A RIGHT WING NUT AS SARAH PALIN IS. Got that Chris? He is NOT a moderate! I know he is in your mind for some reason, but trust me on this. If you don't believe me ask him about his beliefs on evolution v. creationism. Also, ask him about the nutcase he put in charge of Education here when he was first elected.

newdayDAWNING (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:43 AM)

Rights for the minorities at the will of the majority continues to be a successful model for the U.S -> African Americans, Women, Gay People etc. 'The majority groups will always try to keep the minority groups oppressed as long as they possibly can; they want to keep all those freedoms and benefits for themselves "AS LONG as they possibly can. But Equal Marriage Rights will prevail; the religious right & bigots groups will continue to shrink. Especially the catholic church, "people will begin to realize the economy is so bad children are going hungry & the poor are losing their homes & the catholic church is spending all their $$$ on fighting the gay people. They even had to close several churches, "ask the Bishop in Maine."

gepa (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:45 AM)

Obama will not learn anything from last night's results, but Dems had better be paying attention.

He campaigned for Corzine on FIVE separate occasions-including FOUR times in the last two weeks. I will not comment on the issues he was neglecting in favor of hitting the campaign trail-it would be piling on.

Obama put it all on the line in this state-and lost. And, to Ron, Indiana-I guess the news from this state does not travel out there, but in July, the Democratic leadership, with input from the White House, considered running Cory Booker, the extremely popular new mayor of the city of Newark, in place of Corzine. They decided against it when internal polling showed that Booker would fare no better than Corzine. At tht point, the White House instructed that there be internal campaign changes, and substituted 'their guy' for Corzine's. In return,they promised campaign appearances by both Obama and Biden-and delivered.

To no avail.

Twist the results as you will-however, I suggest you take a look at the new CNN Opinion Research poll. True, Obama's approval rating is at 54%, with 45% disapproving, but the details contained within the poll are telling. On all major issues, he is either upside down or tied in approval/disapproval.

It is those numbers that matter. He is in the opposite position as Bill Clinton,who was personally disliked, but had huge approval numbers on the issues during the Lewinsky crisis. That is what saved his presidency. ( I believe that I am on the record as being against reporting of these sex scandals. It was the Lewinsky episode that cemented my views).

But I digress.

Obama cannot survive any more bad news, and that includes HCR. Pass or fail, he loses. The 2010 midterms are going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats. You heard it here first.

no joe, no bo, nj (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:46 AM)

No one outside the belt way gives a rats A$$ about who won in NJ,and the race in Virginia could have been called after Obama creamed the repubs last year.It's been awile since the republicans had a win,so any win is a big deal to them,heck winning a spitting contest would bring high fives all around.So fly high today wingers,you won a couple Governors races,but didn't pick up any real votes,and that is what really matters.

Allday Suckers,Dallas TX (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:47 AM)

How will we support the democratic party again? Are you kidding me? These people have been in Washington for almost a year now, and all they do is fight against one another, they cannot come together on anything - Healthcare, Energy, Jobs. They divide themselves into blue dogs, blue goats, liberal, conservatives and e.t.c. People want something, We want to see result. Wee all know they cannot manufacture jobs, but they can do something about healthcare, why is it taking them eternity to pass the bills. I will not suggest slowing down on healthcare bill, they need to pass it and pass it now.
When the Rupblicans were in power, even though their policies were bad for us, they were able to at least come together and even coarsed some democrats to vote for their bad initiatives - Medicare Prescription.
It is all about enthusiasm and they must get the message now - we are not enthusiastic at all, they must work for those of us that sacrificed everything to put them into offices, they must stop fighting against one another, they must face a common enemy, otherwise, they must prepare to loose more seats and even the white house prety soon.

Nelson, Knoxville, TN. (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:47 AM)

Victory sure feels good here in Virginia today, but both sides are going to over-interpret and under-interpret election results. Republicans will crow that voters are returning to them, when in fact it's the Independents frustrated with Democrats. What's key is that Indies are willing to listen to the GOP and give them a chance. What they do with that chance will be more of a harbinger of future success than anything else. Republicans would be foolish to read too much into this, but Democrats would be foolish to ignore the fact they're bleeding independents at a pretty alarming rate.

Claire (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:48 AM)

So here we go again. Only so called conservatives AND two face hyprocrits like Sanford,Vitter, Ensign and the ignorant masses gets to define what they consider the santity of marriage. Consider 50% divorce rate, daily abuse, murder of women by the husband and neglect/abuse of the offsprings. I guess the Judicial branch of our government is not allowed to step in and rectify an obvious discriminatory act like what happened in the 60's and allow hate mongering homophobes to deny life, liberty and pursuit of happiness along w/ equal protection under the law. It's the heterosexuals who have made a mockery of the institution of marriage ie., 2-3 divorces and getting married by an Elvis impersonator in Vegas. If gays are not allowed to benefit of a monogamous loving relationship why the hell should they pay taxes to the goverment that blantantly discrimates. NO TAXATION W/O EQUAL REPRESENTATION! Keep religion out of it.

Juan,Ft Lauderdale, Fl (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:48 AM)

How can we claim to be the greatest nation on earth, when we are so dumb and stupid? We already know that 20% of the country aligns with the reactionary right, so that means at least another 30% of your fellow citizens fall prey to fear and smear, and are not intelligent enough to see the shortcomings of the wing nuts, FR and the MSM.

Chuck, WA (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:24 AM)

Too bad those who you disagree with are too stupid, lazy etc. to see how obviously right you are. That would seem to be the overarching theme of this little blog...If it's any consolation, you have many (on both sides) who are in total agreement...

Diogenes (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:48 AM)

Which ever one of you who wrote this: THANK YOU!

I've been laughing all morning at the Republican'ts pounding their chests!

And what I find even more alarming (lol lol) is all of a sudden the NY 23 race is no longer of any significance! As of yesterday that was going to be their 'crown jewel' lol lol lol... now... eh! Not a peep out of them!

That race speaks volumes about the fact not only has it been a Republican't strong hold for more than 100 years... but even those constiuents were willing to elect a WHACK JOB!

Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL

There's no net cutting down going on Frosty. This was step one in the process to bring about CHANGE from the lunatic fringe that is in control now.

No, no celebrations for the conservatives, just statements of fact that America will take back this country from those leading us to nowhere.

8 months of Obama and Democratic control. 8 MONTHS!

We've seen enough. People are anxious to sweep the trash out of the house.

NY 23 was only won as a result of the democrats pushing the republican candidate.

A sad commentary from the heights of political control.

America is say NO to the spending binge of Obama and the libs.

Ed Crane, Middlebury, IN (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:49 AM)

"""In NY-23, Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a district they’ve controlled since the 19th century after prominent conservatives -- Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Club for Growth, Tea Party organizers -- backed the more conservative candidate (Hoffman), which eventually forced the moderate GOP nominee (Scozzafava) to withdraw from the race."""

We whacked those Bushwackers!
Hope and Change is ALIVE!

Spitzer Patterson Institute for Family Values- Tammany Hall, NY (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:49 AM)

I'm not usually a big fan of Chris Matthews, but during last night's Hardball show, he deserves credit for he challenging Eric Cantor's absurd claim that the elections were a referendum on Obama, despite all evidence to the contrary. Matthews kept citing the exit polls that showed Cantor was full of it, and Cantor-bot just kept repeating the talking point it had been programmed to repeat.

Houston (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:51 AM)

ObamaCare Vs. The Hippocratic Oath.
The sad fact is that the Obama-Pelosi-Reid Administration’s 1990 page health care reform bill (HR3962) and supplement(HR3961) violate The Oath by stripping freedom from every person, family and business in Our country. This 19 ½ pound pair of documents, entitled ”Affordable Health Care For Americans Act,” will cost taxpayers over $1.2 Trillion, will institute 13 tax increases totaling $740 Billion, will increase Medicare Premiums to Seniors by $70 Billion, will cost shift $34 Billion to State budgets, and will cut Medicare benefits to Seniors by $426 Billion over ten years.
This current version of a Federal Government takeover of the health care delivery system is a carbon copy of what Obama, Pelosi and Reid tried to “jam” through Congress in July, with a couple of “new” additions to strip every American of even more Freedoms. As Yogi Berra once said, “It’s deja vu all over again.”
This version gives the rationing board, already established through The Stimulus Bill (The Federal Coordinating Council For Comparative Effectiveness Research), additional funding to establish a “Center” to institute the rationing of care. Rationing is the heart and soul of this legislation. Rationing, as a method of “cost cutting,” is the most inhumane and unethical means of health care cost containment. By definition, these bureaucrats will overrule licensed doctors, and preside over the denial of health care.

What_you_Selling (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:52 AM)

51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.

-- Case closed. Deeds could not get Obama voters out. He opposes the public option and has little identification. People are not fooled no matter how many times Obama stands next to him. Also, every candidate that was very negative lost. That was also another Obama trait in the general that neither of the two governors can be identified with. And wall street Corzine with no salient positive economic, property tax solution, or jobs plans had little chance. The democrats should learn to jettison impossible candidates early. Patterson pleast take note. Selfishly seeking your own glory drags you, your state and party down. Instead get out of the way and go back to the drawing board to learn what your district wants and how to progressively and positively address it.

J. Richter (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:53 AM)

No one outside the belt way gives a rats A$$ about who won in NJ,and the race in Virginia could have been called after Obama creamed the repubs last year.
Allday Suckers,Dallas TX

Explains all the $$$, time and visits spent by Obama and the DNC including campaigning for the Republican who was initially in the race against the Conservative candidate, right?

Don't be a speed bump. Get out of the way for change that is coming.

Kathy, Charlotte (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:54 AM)

Not once have I entered the voting booth where there were only state and local issues and had any thought about the impact on the nation or view it as a message to Washington.
I also don’t look at the mayoral race as a chance to send a message to the governor.

To do so would mean I wasn’t giving proper attention and importance to my state/local issues and needs.

I think the media and politicians make much more of this than it is if only to justify their existence.

Dennis, Columbus, Ohio (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:54 AM)

Is this a true change in the direction of Independents or are there more people identifying themselves as Independents because they do not wish to identify themselves as Republicans?
Pete - Albany, NY (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:26 AM)

----------------------------------------------

Pete, Dems ROCK!

Hope and Change is here to stay!

The repug Bushwhackers can say NO all they want. OUR president will get HIS way no matter what because WE control Congress- don't forget that you Rethuglican Bushwhacker Repukes. Say No all you want. WE have ACORN too! So naay naay naay!

Spitzer Patterson Institute for Family Values- Tammany Hall, NY (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:54 AM)

Christie's victory in NJ was a referendum on Obama's ability to communicate, organize, and energize not only Blue Dog Democrats, but the base of the Democratic Party as well.
NJ has a lot of urban areas such as Newark, and Camden where Democrats rule the roost. The state, as a whole, is a hot-bed for Liberal-Democratic politics, and Obama campaigned ther for Corzine.
His defeat is a clear indication that Obama's broken promises will take their toll in next year's mid-term elections, and again in 2012 when he runs for re-election.
I don't think I've seen anyone else who's Presidency looks as much like Jimmy Carter's, as Obama's does. They are incredibly parallel to one another, and it looks like Barry will be searching for another job come Jan 20th of 2013.
Once again I say, that this all could have all been avoided.
But..........

WE NOMINATED & ELECTED THE WRONG DEMOCRAT (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:54 AM)

For the Republicans. Yippy! You won NJ and VA! *happy dance* NOW, who actually has more influence when it comes to national policies? Governors or Congressmen? *crickets*
Try the truth (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:41 AM)

SO we will be seeing a vote on a single payer health care then right cause as you say the Dems have congress so they can vote in anything they want.

So where is it
*crickets*

What_you_Selling (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:55 AM)

Kick the bums out! Don't care republican or democrat. Just kick all the incumbants out and see what new lies they come up with. Keep on going until someone finally tells the truth and listens for a change!

thomas, honolulu, hawaii (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:55 AM)

Now, do us all a favor and use all those brilliant ideas you guys keep telling us you have to SOLVE SOME PROBLEMS and GOVERN!

It's put up or shut up time folks, so bring your A GAMES!
Nashville_fan

#1 Eliminate those who want to carelessly and insanely spend money this country does not have.

That's a good starting point. Do you see any out there who qualify for this step.

Josh Larson, FL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:56 AM)

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