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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



WH today vs. Rahm in '05

Posted: Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:20 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Mark Murray
On MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," White House adviser David Axelrod today argued that it would be wrong to read too much into last night's GOP gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia -- and what they might mean for next year's midterm elections.

And if you read us earlier this morning, Axelrod does seem to have a point.

But looking back at First Read's coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel -- then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff -- had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.

Here's what we wrote then:


Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, calling First Read immediately after Kaine's and Corzine's victories were announced, argued that it's clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. "I think that's even more true today." He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing.  "A lot of incumbents are losing to change," he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).


*** UPDATE *** Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's office also sends along this Nov. 2005 Roll Call piece. "In an interview last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) said that regardless of the results, the gubernatorial outcomes stand to have a huge effect on how 2006 is viewed. 'Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people's interpretations of the upcoming election,' Emanuel said, adding that Democratic wins across the board could have a positive impact on the party's 2006 recruiting efforts.”

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So, who called you on it? Hard to imagine this group committing journalism without any outside prodding...
Al Gore, in an interview three years ago, stated he wouldn't run for public office again!! One of the main reasons he cited was how far south the discourse has become in politics!! How true!! Fox for the right, MSNBC for the left; left standing is CNN, in the middle!! I choose CNN; I don't want to hear what I want to hear for the heck of it; I want to hear what's really going on in this country and around the world!! I don't want to see pom-poms out day in and day out for one side or the other!!

The blame for the uncivil discourse we see today lies squarely on the shoulders of the media; you're either "with us or against us!!" No, thank you!!

When we, as a society, allow the media, to include MSNBC, to tell us what to think, when to eat, drink and use the bathroom, we're in trouble!!  

My cousin posted this today; he's spot on!!

"I propose a 'dumb media' tax for all media - left and right. If you haven't studied politics and don't understand how they work, but want to stir up the public into a frenzy with a bunch of armchair quarterback hype - that you then can't back up, once your analysis is shown to be faulty you either A) need to donate 25% of one months salary to public education, and B) need to apologize on TV or radio, or C) spend weekends for two months picking up trash on the roadside. Political analysis on TV and radio used to be done by professionals with entire careers spent in education and politics and it was reasoned and measured. Now it is 95% B.S. and treated more like reporting on a sporting event, and the public that is dumb enough to buy into it gets what they deserve. Enough already."

Yes; enough already!!

This is the last thing we need... yet another reason to dump Rahm!

He certainly doesn't represent the CHANGE I voted for!
Pelosi and Axlerod = dumb and dumber
He certainly doesn't represent the CHANGE I voted for!
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:33 PM)

I agree with you a thousand percent friend!!
Most in Congress are wealthy enough they could opt for the cadillac but it would be on their nickel not that of the tax payer. We would only pay for the same ol "Ford or Chevy" coverage the rest of us would get.
eagle1776 (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 3:28 PM)

I completely diagree with you on this one!! No where in this Bill does it state ANYONE must give up their current healthcare; in fact, it's just the opposite!! President Obama has stated over and over again that no one would have to give up the healthcare they currently have, or the doctor(s) they currently have!!

HCR with a public option assists those who do not have healthcare because a.) Their employer does not provide it; or b.) An individual cannot afford it

No one, including members of Congress, or the average employed worker happy with their healthcare provider, should have to change!!

And they will NOT have to under this Bill!! Wilson is full of crap; don't fall for it, please!!
Have you figured out yet that Obama and his Minions of Doom are full of crap yet? 9 months in and they're already lame ducks. That's after they started out as lame brains.
Momentum is everything, which is why the Republicans are playing this up while the Democrats are playing this down.  To use a football analogy, look at the Iowa-Indiana game last Saturday (9-0!!!). The Hawks were sunk - down by 14 following 6 turnovers with Indiana on their 2 yard line. Then that insane pinball machine interception was returned for a TD and the Hawks went on to score another 4 straight unanswered TDs.  Why?  Because the momentum swung back in their direction. They never had to stare into the face of an impossible 21-point deficit and regained their self-confidence as a result.

It's the same thing with political mood swings - it's all about energizing your players (in this case, the voters).  Much as thousands of people jumped on the Hawkeye bandwagon after last Saturday, people will give money to and vote for the political party that they perceive as being up and coming.  This is a war of perceptions, nothing more.
The Chicago Way. Where reality doesn't matter.
Rahm, I caught you a delicious bass.
I personally feel it wasn't a bad night for Democrats

• 2 Democrats for the House and one who is defiantly a supporter for a strong public option and even single payer, now to me that’s pretty freaking good

My personal favorite was the NY Race. And waking up to a rare moment of reality on Morning Joe; Chuck Todd got it right this morning when he said Moderates were accepted and conservatives were rejected which of course Morning Joe went into complete filibustering mold (I think Chuck Told tricked him into believing he would spend his commentary making this about Obama because Joe Scarborough got off to a slow start on his filibustering technique, hell even Harold Ford got in some Huffman shots Mr. Scarborough wasn't prepared for)

I was quite gleeful waking up watching how Morning Joe tried to spin the Huffman’s crushing defeat. Oh he brought  up Corizne or McDonnell and trying some how to make this a referendum on Obama but the exit polls showed high support for President Obama but it was the economy that worried them. He tried to bring up anything he could to avoid this embarrassing defeat but you can’t escape this lost.

He had the endorsement of
• Rush Limbaugh
• Fred Thompson
• Sarah Palin
• Tim Pawlenty
• Glenn Beck
• Dick Armey
• and Fox the Propaganda Network

They all shamelessly attacked the Republican Candidate Dede Scozzafav. And who knows, maybe it was Rush Limbaugh’s verbal manslaughter against Scozzafava on Monday or Huffman’s classless and tasteless comment against Scozzfava when she suspended her campaign on Sunday or maybe it was Huffman’s Idolization of Glenn Beck that was the last straw; we don’t know how or why Huffman lost but we do know that he didn’t lose by the hands of liberal democrats he lost by the hands of his own party.

The bottom line is Bill Owens won in the heavily Republican New York North Country, which clearly rejected the teabagger's type of bullying mentality that has emerged within the Republican quote on quote Conservative Party.

So again let see how Joe Scarborough spin losing a seat that has been held by a Republican for a 158 years. That like Tom Delay being voted in as mayor of Compton, Ca.... It was last night that a Republican was bragging to Chris Matthews that they were going to overwhelmingly win this seat until Tweety informed him that they had actually just lost and it was on Monday, Morning Joe and others were bragging about winning this seat as well; it was on Monday they pompously believed their conservative was now in charge of taking back their party. I watched as Morning Joe continued to bash and insult Scozzfava. And it didn’t end there as mention above, Rush Limbaugh picked up where he left off except his was much much worst.........

Memo to Morning Joe and the rest of your so called conservative movement, not every republican believes in Tea Bagging.

Now with that being said, Democrats lets get refocus and stop looking for others to blame when many of us should be looking in the mirror as well. Hello people, bills goes through congress, they don’t just jump and skip to President’s Desk. Congress has a job that they also must be accountable for and this is the process we must go by; and when a person is not doing their job, you don’t stay home and not vote, you primary their assses so that they know you mean business..... There is no more evidence of that than of Arlen Specter; once he changed his party affiliation and got primaried he has been down with the cause, strongly supporting the Democratic vision and agenda; and he probably also likes that he is free from being associated with the Republican Tea Bagging Party.

So in short if we find our voted in Representatives and Senators’ loyalties are more to Corporate America then it is to the citizens of the United States of America then we will replace them with others who are and Healthcare is going to be their litmus test on who keeps our support and who loses it.

P.S. Blue Dogs: Don't think yesterday's elections saves you; let me point this out to you, the Democrat who was for a strong public option, the one he media is refusing to report on " John FREAKING GARAMENDI" won and the Democrat "DEED" who opposed it lost. You might want to keep that in mind.





He certainly doesn't represent the CHANGE I voted for!
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:33 PM)

I agree with you a thousand percent friend!!

Pam, San Pedro, California (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:41 PM)
____________

I've been saying for awhile now that once Rahm came on board everything went to sh!t!  Howard Dean would have been a MUCH better choice for COS!!!

Ps;  Love having you around back around here... you know how smart liberal woman drive the dopes of nope CRAAZZEE!!

I'm proud to be your friend!
If I was in the Whitehouse now I'd probably do the same I guess. Is my washing machine on spin cycle?
Funne' how things come back to you isn't it?

Barack, crank up that Greyhound.

Time to do a little more throwing under the bus.

A great way to end a great day all around!

Enjoy the evening fellow Americans!
Ps;  Love having you around back around here... you know how smart liberal woman drive the dopes of nope CRAAZZEE!!
I'm proud to be your friend!
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:49 PM)

Ditto!! I am honored to your friend as well!!
Renny (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:38 PM)
Luke Bryant, Alabama (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:45 PM)------------------- Whats wrong with you folks, you have nothing of substance to add but petty and childish name calling. Very sad! Back to the story, the circumstance happened to be a bit different in 2005. A Dem won in Ohio and 2 Gov. Now we lost the Gov. but still picked up 2 seats.
Where do they keep coming up with these Demo winners.

First Pelosi, now this.

Do
Nothing
Committee

A group of real Adults. Hee Haw
Ditto!! I am honored to your friend as well!!
Pam, San Pedro, California

OMG!! Another Limbaugh fanatic! Freaking Ditto head!
same old thing.  What applies to others does NOT apply ObieOne and his group of Chicago thugs.   So, Rahm, while you're reading through your past quotes, want some dead fish it?  You know you like to send dead fish to others so figured you'd like it.  that's our guy: Rahm "Deadfish" Emmanuel
Ps;  Love having you around back around here... you know how smart liberal woman drive the dopes of nope CRAAZZEE!!


I didn't know that nasty, vile, vulgar qualified as "smart liberal women".
Whatever happened to the media reporting the news rather than trying to create the news?  I cannot believe that they're trying to see what they can stir up over a few elections.  During the Bush years, Kansas elected Sebelius (D) as governor - twice. So what did it mean?  Nothing but that she was a better candidate and Kansans considered what was best for Kansas.  We continue to have two right wingnut senators (Brownback and Roberts) and most of our representatives are extreme right Republicans.  They're making a story out of nothing.

The only thing interesting is that the Republicans decided they didn't like their own candidate in NY, backed the Conservative instead and lost the seat instead.  Perhaps people are tired of the party extremes or maybe they're just tired of being told how to vote.
How nice of Sen. McConnell's office to help you out. ;) Were only 20% willing to self identify as Dems in 2005, too?

Corzine and Deeds were hardly strong candidates, for any party. You want to see a harbinger of things to come nationally, look no further than NY-23.


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