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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



GOP boost, but local issues dominated

Posted: Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:38 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The 2009 gubernatorial elections provided a much-needed momentum boost for Republicans after back-to-back election cycle drubbings.

But the GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia don’t necessarily tell us all that much about how the party will fare in next year’s midterm elections: Gubernatorial races generally say less about the national dynamic than they do local issues, and that's certainly true this year.

In New Jersey, Chris Christie's win over Jon Corzine demonstrated that under the right circumstances the GOP can be successful in a blue state. He pulled it off by capitalizing on the state’s troubled economic environment.

Virginia’s gubernatorial race was for an open seat -- as it incredibly is every four years -- and it was an uphill battle for the Democrats from the beginning. Democrat Creigh Deeds was not a solid candidate, but there were few, if any, alternatives, who could have beaten Bob McDonnell, a solid candidate.

Upstate New Yorkers don't like carpetbaggers. The Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, didn't live in the district, became the national candidate, and didn't have a command of local issues. The local candidate who best understood that district -- Democrat Bill Owens -- won.

For more, read the full story here.

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Comments

firstread, another thread? for hours you have not posted comments on the last four threads you put up. ur last in cable news for good reason.
It's ABOUT TIME! Do any of you 'pundits' believe Speaker Pelosi would bring it to the floor for a vote if she DIDN'T have the votes?

More melodrama manufactured especially for the masses by the MSM!
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Fiesty and Jeff and the rest of our gang, sorry I over slept and missed the hate fest this morning. But you guys held the forte down very well.

Jeff, I used to live in Evanston; I wonder if we know each other
Beverly in Chicago (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 1:26 PM
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Girl you know we got your back!  ;0)

How about those right wing loons strutting & chest pounding to beat the band around here this morning?   lol lol lol

Like I said… they won a couple and they’re STILL MISERABLE!

It’s yet another GOOD day to be a LIBERAL (damn that feels good to say out loud after 8 years of tyranny)!
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I’m happy for you really… you can ‘multi-task’… too bad you’re not any GOOD at it!  lol lol lol

Well here you go Kathy… and to keep things interesting… you can find the full ‘post’ for yourself… I’m tired of you all’s lazy asses wanting everything handed to you!
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Feisty Redhead IL (Sent Friday, March **, 2008 9:28 AM)

So what were you were saying again???

It's okay... apology accepted :0)

Happy hunting!
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Hey Kathy Dearie...where are you?  Still stumbling around in the archives?  lol lol lol

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Their already EXPLODING Feisty, you can hear it on every post. This is fun, pass the pop corn.

Mo (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 3:25 PM)
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Here you go Mo!  Take a handful and pass it on...  

Today is almost as much fun as the day President Obama won the NPP award! Sit back and watch them expose themselves as the 'legions' (according to Kathy... that 'means' many ya know ;0)

THEY ARE!  lol lol lol Keep the popcorn moving now ya hear!
Momentum is everything, which is why the Republicans are playing this up while the Democrats are playing this down.  To use a football analogy, look at the Iowa-Indiana game last Saturday (9-0!!!). The Hawks were sunk in the 3rd quarter - down by 14 following 6 turnovers with Indiana on their 2 yard line. Then that insane pinball machine interception was returned for a TD and the Hawks went on to score another 4 straight unanswered TDs.  Why?  Because the momentum swung back in their direction. They never had to stare into the face of an impossible 21-point deficit and regained their self-confidence as a result.

It's the same thing with political mood swings - it's all about energizing your players (in this case, the voters).  Much as thousands of people jumped on the Hawkeye bandwagon after last Saturday, people will give money to and vote for the political party that they perceive as being up and coming.  This is a war of perceptions, nothing more.
[[Upstate New Yorkers don't like carpetbaggers. ]]

Which totally explains Hillary.
I'll just keep re-posting this until you stop your asinine analysis, MSNBC!! Get an education!!  Walter Cronkite must be turning over in his grave!!

Al Gore, in an interview three years ago, stated he wouldn't run for public office again!! One of the main reasons he cited was how far south the discourse has become in politics!! How true!! Fox for the right, MSNBC for the left; left standing is CNN, in the middle!! I choose CNN; I don't want to hear what I want to hear for the heck of it; I want to hear what's really going on in this country and around the world!! I don't want to see pom-poms out day in and day out for one side or the other!!

The blame for the uncivil discourse we see today lies squarely on the shoulders of the media; you're either "with us or against us!!" No, thank you!!

When we, as a society, allow the media, to include MSNBC, to tell us what to think, when to eat, drink and use the bathroom, we're in trouble!!  

My cousin posted this today; he's spot on!!

"I propose a 'dumb media' tax for all media - left and right. If you haven't studied politics and don't understand how they work, but want to stir up the public into a frenzy with a bunch of armchair quarterback hype - that you then can't back up, once your analysis is shown to be faulty you either A) need to donate 25% of one months salary to public education, and B) need to apologize on TV or radio, or C) spend weekends for two months picking up trash on the roadside. Political analysis on TV and radio used to be done by professionals with entire careers spent in education and politics and it was reasoned and measured. Now it is 95% B.S. and treated more like reporting on a sporting event, and the public that is dumb enough to buy into it gets what they deserve. Enough already."

Yes; enough already!!
Have you figured out yet that Obama and his Minions of Doom are full of crap yet? 9 months in and they're already lame ducks. That's after they started out as lame brains.
Luke Bryant, Alabama (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:45 PM)

You betcha sunshine!! And I'm sure you felt this way before the election last November!!

You are a shining example of the lowest common denominator Fox is appealing to!!
first read, where can i apply for the job of this blog's moderator?  hours of breaks a day, ignore my work and play.  sounds great.  where can i sign up.
You had two Republican candidates win state races in the Northeast, a region where Republicans are nearly extinct. Also, each candidate won in states occupied by two very liberal Democratic senators. A Conservative/Republcians candidate got into the race late in NY-23, didn't even live there, and also came very close to winning.

So if you want to downplay what happened in the Northeast yesterday, be my guest. Democrats should just ignore those Republican wins, they mean nothing. People of the country want bigger government, high taxes, high unemployment, and slow growth. The people are okay with those thihgs, and that's why they'll vote Democrat next year.

Sure they will.
Anybody read this crime against nature, also known as House bill 3962? If anyone can figure out how this all hangs together, please report to CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBS, or where ever so you can explain it to the rest of us. I don't think anyone can makes heads ot tails out this train wreck of a bill.
Alex Martin, Big Rapids MI (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:33 PM)

Let's see, you can't make heads or tails out of it; however, you call it a "train wreck"!!

You betcha sparkles!!

Another shining example of the lowest common denominator Fox is appealing to!!

No child left behind!!  Heckuva job Georgie!!
firstread, if you refuse to put up comments, why put up threads. just asking.
msnbc will remain in the cellar as long as it doesn't seem to give a damn about this blog or news on weekends.
Neatly packaged response by the Democrats mouthpiece.  Nothing said here that isn't the same thing the White House has been trying to spread to avoid them/the President from looking bad in any way.  If it was just about local issues, then why did the President and vPres rush there how many times during the last few weeks alone to get them a boost?  Why was the Pres saying that they were important to his agenda?  You can only have it both ways if you suspend all belief and/or are not really trying to report the facts but just parrot Obama's/Democrats agenda.

btw, First Read folks...  Ive noticed a lot of my posts don't go through.  If you don't want posts on the issues and just want a hundred crazed wacko posts a day from people like FRR from IL, Pam, Msierra, etc...then just say so. Do you actually read what is posted or just throw your favorites (as in people) on each. most of them don't even discuss what is on the thread...they just blab forever with thier cutesy names for the Republican Party and/or Politicians.  
It's a long time until next year, the economy and unemployment will improve, health care reform will be passed and probably plenty of other things.  The dynamics of 1994's Contract with America spoke to the cultural/social issues and look what happened with that; it has actually brought down the GOP; that along with Reagan's failed economic policies of tax cuts, deregulation, and spend brought the economy to its knees.  Unless something unexplained happens, some house seats and maybe a couple in the senate but I don't see a complete shift to GOP in 2010.  
Ps;  Love having you around back around here... you know how smart liberal woman drive the dopes of nope CRAAZZEE!!
I'm proud to be your friend!
Feisty Redhead Roselle, IL (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:49 PM)

Ditto!! I am honored to your friend as well!!
Take back America.

Get it away from the leeches of government.
Hey Read, the 23rd district is not indicative of Tea Party losing.  They helped to dump a hand picked insider who  did not have any conservative priciples what-so-ever. Hoffman may have been vetted in a real primary and a strong candidate whould have won to beat the Dem winner. But hell, this Scoza what's her name would have been run out of town! Wait until the real election.  The people did win however due to Hoffman since the more conservative Dem eventually won over the way liberal Republican who was dumped.
[[Upstate New Yorkers don't like carpetbaggers. ]]

Which totally explains Hillary.
Bonzai Bill (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:48 PM)

-------------------------------------------

Go back to the 2000 Senate Election here in New York and you'll find that Rick Lazio, the Republican, won NY-23.
From earlier post  Last night, Obama watched the HBO special about himself instead of the election results.

How narcissistic.

Gary Weber, Boston MA (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 2:14 ----------------------------  Stop watching FOX! She lied! Said MacCallum:

   “Robert Gibbs, the press secretary, has been speaking with some reporters and he was asked, ‘So why didn’t the president watch last night?’”
“And Robert Gibbs said, ‘Well, he was actually watching, you know, the HBO special about his year-long campaign and how it all went.’ So he was watching that last night.”  
The problem with that? It’s not true.

Gibbs never said the president watched the documentary last night. He was asked that question but replied that he didn’t know.

He was asked if the president watched the returns. To that, Gibbs replied that the president was not sitting in front of the TV watching them.

On the topic of the documentary, Gibbs was asked if the president liked it. He replied that Obama had seen it before and did enjoy it.

Comprehension is a good thing!
Nate Silver raised an interesting observation at fivethirtyeight.com

"Whereas three-quarters of Corzine's voters cited a national issue -- health care or the economy -- as their primary reason for voting for him, two-thirds of Christie's picked a local one (property taxes and corruption)."

That totally contradicts the Repubs talking point. Even though New Jersians didn't care much for Corzine, they still voted for him because of the Democratic Party's positions on national issues. People who voted for Christie did so because they couldn't take Corzine any more. Had President Obama NOT campaigned for Corzine, he would no doubt have lost by a larger margin.

BTW: While it's true as some folks have said, that the governors' races have no short term impact on federal government policies, who is governor can have a huge impact in the long term.

Remember that Jeb Bush and his Florida Sec. of State Katherine Harris (aka "Cruella DeVille") delivered the presidency to Bush in 2000 with the help of the conservative Supreme Court, and the Sec. of State for the corrupt Ohio governor, Ken Blackwell, helped deliver the presidency to Bush in 2004.

Well lets see these repulican saviors fix the economies of their respective states...the dittoheads gave obama about 3 seconds before they jumped on him so we may as well get started on these two new goobernators.

The economies of NJ and VA are tanking under new republican leadership.
Both of the Repubs that won, Christie and McDonnell campaigned as RINO Republicans

THEY WON

The Cross Burner in NY-23 LOST
It DOESN'T PAY to be a 'Beck Disiple' unless you're running in South Carolina or Kentucky or Utah

Otherwise, you're toast

WHAT does the 'Club For Growth' have to say about NY-23 ??

What about Dick Armey and his Dick Army ??

Cat got your tongue ???????


The Tea Bag Revolution (sic) has BEEN CANCELED !!!
HA ! HA !
WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU EGG HEADS???  There are no winners, there are no losers, there are no victories until our country's economy, jobs and housing are on stable ground.  Arguing, fighting, boasting and being negative will only lead to nowhere.
The people are okay with those thihgs, and that's why they'll vote Democrat next year.
Sure they will.
HMI-MI (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 4:55 PM)

So, using your logic, the forced runoff in the mayoral race in Atlanta proves the south is turning on the repubs!! Yep, that's it!! The republican party is losing the south!!

You betcha sunbeam!!
I get the feeling Domenico Montanaro isn't exactly a Palin fan...:). Get the popcorn ready kids, Palin and her Dick Armey is on a roll for 2k10.
The reason Corzone didn't win is because he didn't he didn't listen to what the people wanted. If he had he would have won. I voted for  Senator Conrad in ND. If he doesn't vote for the public option of some way to lower insurance premiums I won't vote for him again. I will vote for whoever is against him - I don't care what party........
I do choose to watch MSNBC cable news.  Keith and Rachel are unabashed liberals and they tell you from the get-go.  I don't care what a reporter's political leanings are as long as he/she can back up what they say with facts, as long as their reporting complies with the truth.  Fox reporters lie.  They make up their so called facts such as the birther stories, death panels, Obama is not an American, and the list goes on forever.  I wish people who they victimize would start suing them.  Fox News is destroying this country, and CNN, while pretending to be neutral will not call the liers out but capitalizes on the myths created by Fox.  They legitimize the lies more completely by bantering the lies about on their news show in the guise of analyzing the news.  It's a real shame, because so much is at stake for our country.
The repetitive post about Al Gore and the media pre-supposes that the reader gives a sh** about what Al Gore thinks.

I think someone who loses an election, especially if it was stolen from him, would bounce back with energy and class and run again in 2004.  

Instead, he went off the deep end of self-loathing, self-absorption and self-pity.  He was part and parcel of lowering the discourse and continues to this day.  He was such an embarrassment that his party abandoned him for John Kerry.

And what does Mr. Plump, the friend of PETA, do now? He blames it on the media?  How stupid can a person be to blame the entity that gave him half a chance in the first place? That's hysterical.

Al Gore found his true niche as Brother Al's Travelling Salvation Show.  Pack up the babies and scare the old ladies by threatening them with 365 days a year of hot August nights.

I watched Marley and Me last night, a movie about a dog and a journalist.  The journalist had some wise words about using exclamation points. He probably learned it in journalism school.
The dumb media tax has some promise, but only if it is applied early and often in journalism school.
FIRST READ - if this is appropriate to corner someone on their past statements - and I do believe that to be so, then please show us Joe Lieberman's stance on Healthcare over the years

Also, please do it for John McCain, etc
The media is spinning this so heavily for the GOP. The GOP gained two governorships, the Dems two more congressional seats. Where are the articles citing that idiot Palins influence fading after her try at kingmaker in New York, they lost a seat there they had held for many years.
btw, First Read folks...  Ive noticed a lot of my posts don't go through.  If you don't want posts on the issues and just want a hundred crazed wacko posts a day from people like FRR from IL, Pam, Msierra, etc...then just say so. Do you actually read what is posted or just throw your favorites (as in people) on each. most of them don't even discuss what is on the thread...they just blab forever with thier cutesy names for the Republican Party and/or Politicians.  
ckaster, biloxi, ms (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 5:03 PM)
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WHAAA WHAAA WHAAA!!!

Even after your (2) BIG victories last night... you're still sucking on the sour grapes!

Are you people EVER HAPPY?
The Truth?!  The GOP can't handle the Truth!
The Cross Burner in NY-23 LOST
It DOESN'T PAY to be a 'Beck Disiple' unless you're running in South Carolina or Kentucky or Utah

Otherwise, you're toast

WHAT does the 'Club For Growth' have to say about NY-23 ??

What about Dick Armey and his Dick Army ??

Cat got your tongue ???????


The Tea Bag Revolution (sic) has BEEN CANCELED !!!
HA ! HA !
MSierra, SF (Sent Wednesday, November 04, 2009 5:40 PM)


Crossburner?  Grow up Msierra!  Because he is conservative doesn't make him that...jeez get a frigging life
Well, they ended up liking Hillary enough-New Yorkers that is. Anyway, Hoffman was no Hillary. And they don't fancy brainless Alaskans, radio clowns and unemployed House leaders thinking they can swoop in and pull the strings.
 Yes, Sarah, please continue to support Conservative, 'pure' candidates against the Republican candidates. You'll continue to do wonders for the Dems.  BTW Repubs. won in NJ and VA, not Conservatives. So, teabaggers 0-the real world wins.
NJ and VA had nothing to do with Pres. OBAMA...and he needs to keep it that way. CORZINE had too much old baggage-didn't deliver on any of his promises...much like the ones the president has promised and still has time to deliver. And he must.
….Here is the thing that I have learned if it can be screwed up, the Republicans were there. Unfortunately they would do better in the movie Star Wars…because they are just lost in space, with the evil Darth Vader in charge of the Galactic Empire…..Congress as the Robotic Droids would do well to listen to the “Force” until Luke Skywalker shows up…..because the Galactic Empire does need saved.
Because it WAS LOCAL and it was Corzine who doesn't excel in charisma, that was one reason that Christie was able to win (and NJ to lose in the longe run).  No matter how much people talk about it, Corzine had an uphill struggle because of the low poll numbers throughout his time as governor.  Short of the Divine presence coming down and saying to vote for Corzine, it was going to be tough.  He never led in any polls beyond the margin of error.  Corzine must have hire Paul Murky of Murky research (Car Talk!).


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