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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



2009 exit polls

Posted: Thursday, November 05, 2009 1:32 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
If you're looking for the full 2009 exit polls, here they are:

And here's a compilation of some of what we've written over the past few days going inside these numbers.

As we wrote in First Thoughts yesterday: The election provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.

Video: Chuck Todd's Nightly News spot on the economic worries in 2009 election

Chuck's broader TODAY show spot  

Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.

The other warning sign is with people who are worried about the nation's economic direction. In New Jersey, 90% said they are worried, and Christie leads with these folks by three points, 48%-45%. In Virginia, 84% say they are worried about the nation's direction, and McDonnell leads among these people by 17 points, 58%-41%.

More on the exits from us:

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Comments

'...the Republicans' healthcare amendment would do literally nothing to decrease the percentage of Americans without coverage...'

Republicans give DEMAGOUGERY a BAD NAME !!


'...the amendment's insurance coverage provisions would increase deficits by $8 billion over the 2010-2019 period...'

Fiscal Responsibility ??
Republicans are NASTY BOYS !!

The Democrats promised a 'Deficit Neutral' Bill


From MyDD.com:

'...CBO: GOP Health Bill Wouldn't Increase % Covered
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 11:55:53 PM EST

Not a huge surprise, but the Republicans' healthcare amendment would do literally nothing to decrease the percentage of Americans without coverage, per the CBO (.pdf):


By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about 3 million relative to current law, leaving about 52 million nonelderly residents uninsured. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage in 2019 would be about 83 percent, roughly in line with the current share. CBO and JCT estimate that enacting the amendment's insurance coverage provisions would increase deficits by $8 billion over the 2010-2019 period. [emphasis added]

I suppose the Republicans might try to argue that their proposal succeeds at stemming the growth in the uninsured, so to that extent at least their proposal doesn't do nothing. But it doesn't do much more than nothing.

According to polling from Bloomberg news, 61 percent of Americans believe it to be "critically important" to "[f]ind a way for those who are currently uninsured to get health insurance coverage," a goal just 8 percent believe to be not that important or a bad idea.

If the Republicans believe it to be good politics to line themselves up with the minority of Americans disfavoring efforts to decrease the proportion of uninsured in this country, then by golly they've struck gold. But if they were hoping to present some sort of alternative to the Democrats' efforts at healthcare reform, something that anyone -- whether Beltway pundits or voters around the nation -- could have taken at least somewhat seriously, they have more or less failed...'



It SUCKS to be a Republican !!

It just SUCKS !!

It is a pleasure to have the Administration owning something good or bad. The last one only wanted to own what they percieved as good and the bad was someone else's to deal with.
eagle1776 (Sent Thursday, November 05, 2009 9:54 AM)


Then why does he keep blaming Bush for everything?
The liar keeps lying (Sent Thursday, November 05, 2009 11:50 AM



Are you blind, deaf, or dumb.
this is because of people like you that want to forget the last 8 years, at the same time blame the current administration for all our problems. No, the past administration dropped the ball, on so many things that are bitting us in the ass as we speak. untill people like you and other so called republican who talk about how fiscal responsible they are, and how great they are at foreign policy don't own up to the past, how can we look to the future.
i was just thinking about that great republican president ronald reagan, when unemployment was as high as it is now, he did nothen to help the little guy. our president is helping the little guy like it or not.
so like i have said before, untill people on this blog, stop this hatred for the president, we will never move foward. i don't like to bring up fact from the past, but when nuckle heads talk there tall crap, we, who have faith in our president will always bring up the past, and there is alot to bring up.
so if you want us to stop blaming Bush, stop blasting Obama.
I think that fair!!!!
as bad as thing were in 1932 i don't think roosevelt took as much heat as president Obama is taking Now.
Jeff Evanston IL. (Sent Thursday, November 05, 2009 12:31 PM)


Boy,  Someone asks a question on why Obama blames Bush for everything from a post that says he doesn’t and get this libby rant. Could it be Bush Derangement Syndrome?


'... 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote....'

Spin THAT, cross burners

Which Republican candidates invited Simple Sarah to campaign for them ?
Which invited Sarah to campaign with them ?

How'd THEY DO ??

'...Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go...'
True
Time to MAN UP, Obama !!


Lobotomies for Tea Baggers

'I'd rather have a bottle in front of me
than a frontal lobotomy'
Of the electorate;
40% lean left 40% lean right, and the remaining 20% swing like a pendulum from cycle to cycle. The party in power is always at the mercy of current events while the minority party is potentially the beneficiary of same. The majority party is always at a disadvantage because they are in the position of defending the current policies, whereas the opposition can plug in to whatever discontent those policies engender...
Nate Silver has a great article about this "independent voter" baloney the pundits obsess over -- especially when the "indies" lean Republican:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/independent-voters-and-empty.html

Basically, Silver observes that winning the independent vote tells you as much about the election as whoever gets the most runs tells you about a ball game. Also, there all different sorts of "independents," and viewing them as a voting bloc is nonsensical.

Nate Silver obviously could never make it as a "main stream" pundit. His critical thinking skills are too good to do a proper "analysis" the way the big-time pundits like David Broder does them. Silver just can't stick to the "narrative" that the Hive Mind of corporate punditocracy agrees upon.
We are still fired up and ready to go in Charlotte, N.C. We just elected our first Democratic Mayor in 22 years. By the way President Obama got around 60% of the vote in our city. Only 1 republican was elected to our city council. We had 2 tea party people on the ballot and we rejected them also.
Good job MSNBC. Report the few signs with the most vitriol. Ignore the majority of signs from concerned Americans. Anything to fit your narrative, huh?
DG, Houston, TX (Sent Thursday, November 05, 2009 1:31 PM)

Why should these signs be ignored?  As you stated, "most vitriol" - no, America needs to see the level of hatred the wing nuts, that have hi-jacked the Republican Party, have for anything democratic!!

If they don't want the signs photographed and/or reported on, they should think before they proudly walk around holding them!!

America will not tolerate this; America is not a radical right country!! And as much as Beck, Hannity, RushBo and their ilk want it to be, it's not!! And Obama is no far left liberal, either!! He's a centrist, period!! The attempts from the far right radical fringe of the Republican Party to paint Obama a radical lefty will get them about as far as attempting to paint Bill Clinton a murderer!!

It won't work; in fact, like with Bill Clinton, these antics will only help President Obama!! The repubs didn't learn a darn thing from their attacks on Clinton; the more bizarre they got, the more popular Clinton got!! And to it will be for President Obama and the democrats, so do keep acting up now!!  
FR: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better.
---------------------------------

There is no mystery whatsoever as to why Deeds didn't attract Obama voters: he ran as a CONSERVATIVE Dem, who distanced himself from Obama and who opposed the mainstream Democratic positions on issues such as the public option for health insurance. I haven't heard a single "journalist" note this very obvious fact.

But please don't let me stop you from reading the chicken entrails looking for evidence of gloom and doom for President Obama.
MSierra, SF
I disagree with your attitude that "It SUCKS to be a Republican".  Generalizing people is dangerous.  Not all Republicans agree with Sarah Palin or Rush.  I know a lot of people, some liberal, some indie, and some republican.  They all have something they want out of health care reform.  None are against health care reform.  They all want their voices heard and want reform that is meaningful in their eyes.  This does not make any of them good or bad.  It makes them different.  Maybe you should get to know some different people and try to understand where they are doming from.  Then you will not generalize people.
FR: "While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better."
---------------------------------

There is no mystery whatsoever as to why Deeds didn't attract Obama voters: he ran as a CONSERVATIVE Dem, who distanced himself from Obama and who opposed the mainstream Democratic positions on issues such as the public option for health insurance. I haven't heard a single "journalist" comment on this very obvious reason why Deeds got wiped out.

But please don't let me stop you from reading the chicken entrails looking for evidence of gloom and doom for President Obama.
New Jersey just voted in a fat ass who is fully insured by taxpayer's hard earned money.  He's a prime canadate for lap-ban surgery.  And not a dime out of his pocket for the procedure.  New Jersey deserves him!!
Here is my take on the Independent Voters.  Most of them ARE Republicans who just happened to like Barack Obama leading into the 2008 Elections.  I am not the least bit surprised they went back to Moderate Republicans.  Like I said before, during the campaign, I called thousands of these voters and got inside their heads, and that is why I know this to be a fact.  They blow whichever way the Candidate that has the best "Schtick".
Yeah, the Libs are crying "help."
Regarding the two governor races. I really don't understand the logic of Chuck Todd and most of the media. According to their logic, when California voted for Arnold, the democrats and independents were so in awe of Dubya and his administration they threw out Gray Davis the democrat governor. I DON"T THINK SO.  Governor races are all about local politics and has NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with Washington.

The real story on Tuesday was the fact that the democrats won two seats in congress. Two more votes for healthcare reform and the public option. BOTH democrats said they would vote for a public option in their campaigns and guess what.. the people voted for them. I think that says a lot more.
Well come on now you protester's aren't scaring anybody but I teel you what we hear in DC are getting tired of it wait until they come to your home Town  but can somebody explain why is always mostly white folks who receive goverment benifits; already like medicare or medicaid or is it just ignorance needing something to do because nobody had to work or had a goverment check arrived.
Forget the Polls and Elections; I am still trying to figure out why any human being with a heart would fight Health Care reform so fiercely.  Are they fighting HealthCare or "Progress in America" (maybe a little too much Progress in America now...hmm?) The last time I saw this many white people...oops, I mean people protest about something, it was either, for or against "Civil Rights". Anyway God Bless those who try to make a better America and forgive those who haven't figured out what that means!
The media has so overplayed these special elections.  Can we move on to the next issue?
I'm having a hard time trying to put this into words, so maybe MSIERRA or Jody from Iowa can help me. People who call themselves Independents will vote Republican one time and Democrat the next. In this day and age, when there are such stark differences between the parties, I fail to see why it so difficult to decide what you believe in. This continually swinging back and forth between parties in power only gaurantees that nothing of any major importance will get done. Maybe it gives them (independents) a feeling of power or maybe they just have a warped sense of humor. Something has to give. We cannot go on like this.
Most of these so called independents in NJ were really repugs.  They are just ashamed to admit they are.  LOL.  The reason the dems lost the progressives.


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