First thoughts: Obama's four options
Posted: Wednesday, November 11, 2009 9:20 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama’s four options: On this Veterans Day, at 2:30 pm ET, President Obama meets with his national security team for the eighth and possibly final time to discuss what to do in Afghanistan. Obama received two new options yesterday, in addition to the other two that had been debated for some time, and all of them increase the number of troops there. On the low end, one option (supported by Vice President Biden) sends an additional 10,000 to 15,000. On the high end is a proposal for the 40,000 to 44,000 troops that Gen. McChrystal has requested. As NBC's Savannah Guthrie first reported last night, Defense Secretary Gates supports a middle option of sorts that gives McChrystal nearly all he wants -- but not quite. And today’s New York Times adds that Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen and Secretary of State Clinton also back that middle proposal.
Video:
President Obama meets with his war team amid reports he's made a decision to add tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan, reports the White house denies.
*** The clock is ticking: Obama’s decision is likely to come at the end of Thanksgiving week or the week after. But the calendar is a real factor here: If the president orders all the troops McChrystal wants, it still will take more than a year to get them in to the country. But McChrystal said in his report that “failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) … risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.” Bottom line: The president doesn't like his options; it's why he keeps asking for more plans from his military advisers. Notice that in his Fort Hood speech yesterday, he was careful to link Pakistan and Afghanistan together. Obama believes the focus of the war effort in Afghanistan should be regional and tactical and about al Qaeda and other extremists. By constantly linking Afghanistan and Pakistan together, the administration is sending the message it is NOT in the business of nation-building. And now the key players in the White House are even more skeptical of their partner in Afghanistan (read: Karzai). One gets the sense if the president would love to figure out a way to use this moment to fundamentally change the perception of what America is doing in the region.
*** The speech at Fort Hood: As for Obama’s remarks yesterday at Fort Hood, it could very well be a speech that’s going to be remembered and quoted for some time. It struck the right balance of commander-in-chief and consoler-in-chief, which isn’t easy. And it's always a greater challenge for a president who did not wear the uniform to honor those who have. The president also seemed to touch on the Muslim issue without dwelling on it. Again, it was a difficult balance -- but one that was necessary in this current climate. Meanwhile, the real headaches for the administration are beginning to come into focus as various government entities begin the CYA process. Today alone, there seems to be a fair share of finger-pointing over who knew what about Hasan's contacts with a radical cleric. These stories all have the potential to become political land mines. Because of that don't be surprised if, in short order, we see some blue-ribbon panel/investigation body or something get convened.
*** The Race for 60: On health care, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday that he plans to bring his bill to the floor next week. But that will be the easy part. As a top Democrat in the Senate told NBC’s David Gregory, "Everyone in the caucus realizes that we have to pass a bill, but no one can quite figure out the path [to 60]." The two more contentious matters: the public option and abortion. That said, Bill Clinton’s Capitol Hill visit must have paid dividends after Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said this, per the Washington Post: Nelson, “the only Democrat who has yet to support bringing a bill to the Senate floor, noted that Clinton appealed to lawmakers not to expect their ideological ideal. ‘He said you need to pass the best bill that you can,’ Nelson said. ‘Getting the best bill is not only good for the people, it's good politics -- and it's that simple.’”
*** Two strategies for Reid: Here's something to ponder: What's the better strategy for Reid -- calling the bluff of Nelson/Lincoln/Lieberman/Snowe and seeing how intent they are in filibustering (so Reid can placate those on the left), or avoiding that PUBLIC moment and negotiating behind the scenes to a point that gets those centrists on board? There's a divide among some, but don't be surprised if Reid goes the public route (as it's the best way to show the left that he did everything he could do), then goes back to the trigger to move it out of the Senate. What's Reid got to lose doing that? Who knows, maybe Nelson/Lieberman/Lincoln/Snowe come aboard earlier than expected…
*** Tied in Ohio: Was there a Republican honeymoon post-Election Day '09? Perhaps. Back in September, a Quinnipiac poll had Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) with a 10-point lead over likely challenger John Kasich (R), 46%-36%. Well, a new Quinnipiac survey now has Strickland and Kasich tied at 40% each. What’s more, the poll has Strickland’s approval at 45%, his lowest score ever in this survey. As we’ve said before, this isn’t a good time to be an incumbent governor. Looking ahead to next year’s midterms -- and also the 2012 presidential race -- one thing to watch will be to see how Democratic Govs. Strickland (in Ohio), Ritter (in Colorado), and Culver (in Iowa) all fare next year. All three states, remember, are red ones that Obama carried last year.
*** Helping the GOP’s recruiting pitch: In addition, Republicans today are likely to seize on a new Gallup poll showing them with a four-point edge on the 2010 generic ballot test. Our NBC/WSJ poll last month had Dems with an eight-point advantage. The Quinnipiac and Gallup surveys couldn't have come at a better time for the GOP, as they put the final sale on prospective candidates for the House, in particular. There are many House GOP leaders who would truly like to make a run at the majority in 2010, but they need more quality candidates in more races. A poll like this is a boost to their sales pitch.
*** Tracking the stimulus: Don’t miss MSNBC.com’s brand-new application tracking the stimulus.
*** Obama on Veterans Day: In addition to his meeting on Afghanistan, President Obama and the first lady host a Veterans Day breakfast at the White House at 9:05 am ET. Then the two head over to Arlington National Cemetery to participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns at 11:00 am, and the president will deliver remarks 25 minutes later. Also today, Vice President Biden hosts a lunch for veterans and servicemembers at the Naval Observatory at noon.
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