First thoughts: Around the world...
Posted: Thursday, November 12, 2009 9:15 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Around the world in 8 days: Later this afternoon, President Obama departs on his latest big overseas trip -- a whirlwind eight-day, four-country journey that will take him to Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. His previous trips (to Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East) helped bolster his domestic image. But that wasn’t necessarily the case back in July (when he traveled to Russia and Italy) or last month (with his unsuccessful Olympics push in Copenhagen). The reason: Those trips came post-honeymoon and in the midst of the health-care debate and further concerns about the U.S. economy. While everyone focuses on Obama’s rough August, White House folks will privately tell you that the president’s poll numbers started coming down to earth in July right after that jaunt to Russia (in fact, our July NBC/WSJ poll showed his approval at 53%, down three points from June). This is maybe one reason why Obama’s Asia schedule is so jam-packed; you can really tell the White House wants him to get back ASAP.
*** Want to get away? Then again, maybe it’s not the worst thing that Obama is going to be thousands of miles and more than a dozen time zones away over the next week. First, the health-care debate in the Senate (over the public option and abortion) is going to be incredibly messy, as the sausage-making process always is. While the president effectively parachuted in over the weekend to help pass the House bill, note that involvement came at the end of the process -- not the middle, where the Senate currently is. Second, next week will be Palin-palooza, with her Oprah interview on Monday, her book going on sale Tuesday, and the book tour starting Wednesday. As we’ve pointed out before, Palin’s publicists picked a pretty good time for her book rollout. She’s going to have the political stage mostly to herself next week.
*** No rest for the weary: The president’s eight-day trip to Asia is going to be exhausting. Air Force One takes off at 9:50 am ET (but before then, Obama will deliver brief remarks on the economy at 9:15 am, in which he’ll announce hosting a jobs summit next month at the White House). He will then land at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, where he’ll meet with servicemembers and make remarks around 5:30 pm ET. Then it’s off to Japan, where he arrives around 2:00 am ET. He then spends the next six days in Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. Given how exhausting this trip will be -- for the president, his staff, and the members of the White House press corps -- it’s worth reminding everyone that Obama and many of his top aides have been working virtually non-stop over the past three years. When you add dealing with two wars, fixing an economy and trying to revamp the nation’s health-care system, you see how these guys could use a break. The Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach today touches on how the war in Afghanistan, in particular, has taken a toll on Obama. And as the exhaustion takes a toll on staff, how much of it is due to running into political problems which, in turn, saps whatever adrenaline they once had?
*** Calling Karzai’s bluff? On the subject of Afghanistan, NBC’s Mike Viqueira confirms that Obama is pushing for revisions to the plans presented that would clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government; he raised questions yesterday that could affect total number of troops that are sent to Afghanistan and the timeline for their presence in the war zone; his concerns center on the credibility of the Afghan government; and he wants to make clear that the U.S. commitment isn’t open-ended. To us, this seems like an attempt to call Karzai's bluff. The White House’s very public telegraph that we might not send troops -- or that we could leave A LOT sooner than Karzai thinks -- could be about squeezing him.
*** The Battleground book tour: Regarding Palin’s aforementioned book tour next week, it will take her to 13 cities -- 11 of which just happen to be in presidential battleground states (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida). What's more, nine of the 13 stops are in congressional districts won by McCain -- so she's reaching out to the GOP base. Palin starts her tour in Michigan, a battleground state the McCain campaign withdrew from the day of Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. The next day, Palin went -- you guessed it -- rogue and openly questioned the move. “I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try," she said back then. In a recent posting she made on her Facebook page announcing her book tour dates, Palin quipped: “Last year, I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I’m keeping that promise.” Also, per NBC’s Norah O’Donnell, Palin already has taped her appearance on Oprah. "There's nothing we didn't talk about," Oprah reported last night in a video linked to her Twitter. "Lots of her supporters didn't think she should come here." Oprah said they talked about Palin's daughter Bristol's pregnancy, Levi Johnston, Palin's infant son Trigg, and the state of Palin's marriage.
*** The GOP's purity tests? We understand why some conservatives are pillorying Charlie Crist and Olympia Snowe. After all, these two Republicans have not only worked with the Obama and the Democrats, they have a history of sometimes bucking their party. But many might not understand how Newt Gingrich (during NY-23), Sen. Bob Bennett (who's receiving a primary challenge from the right in Utah), and now Sen. Lindsey Graham have become targets. On Monday, the executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party voted unanimously to rebuke Graham “for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a ‘cap and trade’ energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens.” Ironically, just two years ago, the GOP's presidential front-runners were hardly pure conservatives -- John McCain favored liberalized immigration and opposed Bush's tax cuts, Mitt Romney had once supported abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research, and Rudy Giuliani backed gay rights and even moved in with a gay couple (and their pet Shih Tzu) after the breakup of his second marriage. Of course, some Republicans would argue that their lack of purity is the reason why they lost in 2008.
*** Bush back in the spotlight: Speaking of 2008… Former President George W. Bush will deliver his highest-profile speech since leaving office when he outlines his vision for his Bush Institute, which will be housed in the George W. Bush Presidential Center at Southern Methodist University. The event takes place in Dallas beginning at 3:00 pm ET.
*** Pushing back on Gallup: Yesterday, we mentioned a Gallup poll showing Republicans with a four-point advantage in the generic ballot. A Democratic pollster emails First Read that the party ID in the poll is a bit “whacky,” with Dems enjoying only a two-point party ID edge when you count leaners. Most national phone surveys, we’re reminded, have Democrats with a double-digit party ID lead. “In short, something doesn't seem quite right in the Gallup data,” the Dem pollster says. “I will grant that independents seem to be leaning toward the GOP on the generic ballot right now... But there is simply no way that Republicans and Democrats are essentially tied on party ID, and I think this calls their overall ballot numbers very much into question.”
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