First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Where's the super flood? Since Tuesday, Obama has picked up eight superdelegates to Clinton’s net of one. But that’s not quite the superdelegate flood many had expected after North Carolina and Indiana. What’s going on here? Part of it seems to be that some Dem supers are still waiting for the dust to settle from Tuesday’s aftermath. Also, there does seem to be the thought that a quick rush to Obama could end up embarrassing a candidate who’s still campaigning hard in West Virginia, Oregon, and beyond. But there’s also some concern that Obama could be a problem for superdelegates representing conservative and rural districts. See Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney’s endorsement of Clinton today. The fact is this Dem primary race went on long enough and became divisive enough that there are supers who could never endorse Clinton OVER Obama and vice versa. So until Clinton exits, we may not see a super flood. Also, Clinton's camp may have successfully convinced some to wait and see if a 25-30-point Clinton win in West Virginia shakes things up at all.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on John Edwards' interviews on "TODAY" and "Morning Joe."***
Where we stand: In addition to the two congressional superdelegates (Reps. Brad Miller of NC and Rick Larsen of WA) he picked up yesterday, Obama added two more overnight (Reps. Peter
DeFazio of OR and Donald
Payne of NJ). Payne had previously backed Clinton, so that takes one away from her total, but she made that up with the backing this morning of Rep. Chris
Carney of PA. Here’s the count: PLEDGED: Obama 1590, Clinton 1426; SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 264; TOTAL: Obama 1854, Clinton 1699.5. There are now 257.5 undeclared superdelegates. By the way, if May 20 is indeed the day Obama claims victory (all he needs is about 30 pledged delegates to claim the majority of all pledged delegates awarded), don't expect Obama to give his victory speech in Oregon (the state that will get him most, if not all of those 30 needed delegates). And don't expect the speech to be in Chicago. While the campaign won't say where, start your own pools: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia? That's the quint-fecta we'd bet.
***
And so it begins…: If yesterday was the second unofficial day of the general campaign between Obama and McCain, then it may end up being a lot more contentious than either candidate themselves has claimed. It all started when Obama -- responding to a question about McCain referring to Obama as the candidate that Hamas is supporting -- said this: “For [McCain] to toss out comments like that I think is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination. We don’t need name calling in this debate.” That prompted a response from McCain adviser Mark Salter: “First, let us be clear about the nature of Senator Obama's attack today: He used the words 'losing his bearings' intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue. This is typical of the Obama style of campaigning.” And then the Obama camp fired back: “Clearly losing one’s bearings has no relation to age, given this bizarre rant that Mark Salter just sent out. It’s clear why a candidate offering a third term of George Bush’s disastrous economic policies and failed strategy in Iraq would want to distract and attack.” Salter memos are going to become legendary by the end of this campaign; he's one of the more clever writers in politics today and he doesn't mind getting his hands dirty. The sarcastic wit that's usually buried in his missives will no doubt be the source of more heated back-n-forth exchanges.
*** Obama and Jewish voters: Lost in the Hamas back-and-forth between Obama and Mark Salter was the big push yesterday by Obama to start healing whatever wounds there are between Jewish Democrats and Obama. He attended a DC-celebration of the 60th anniversary of Israel and hit all the correct notes any politician needs to hit to earn the trust of Israel and of Jews who see Israel as their No. 1 one voting issue. If this was a start, it may pay dividends, but if this is all Obama does in his reach out, it won't be good enough. Isn't it likely Obama does a major speech on Israel's security sometime soon in a state, oh, like Florida?
*** Is Clinton playing the race card? That seems to be the conclusion of everyone from Peggy Noonan to the New York Times’ editorial page. This warning by the Times will have a lot of people talking today: “Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that ‘Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.’ She added: ‘There’s a pattern emerging here.’ Yes, there is a pattern -- a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.” Politico's Smith added that Clinton was as blunt as she ever was on the issue of her white support. He speculated that it might not have been an accident, since there are no primaries left with significant African-American electorates.
*** Just asking: So who watched Edwards on TODAY and MORNING JOE this morning and thinks they've figured out whom he voted for in the North Carolina primary? We think we did. Edwards says he's not ready to endorse, but he did say Obama had the best chance to beat McCain because of new voters. And he refused to discuss whether he and Elizabeth voted for the same person. Anyone who has spent time with Elizabeth Edwards recently probably thinks they know who SHE voted for in the NC primary as well.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Oregon and Louisville, KY; McCain begins his day with an event in New Jersey and then heads to South Carolina, where he holds a media avail and raises money; and Obama -- in Oregon like Clinton -- holds a town hall in Albany and a rally in Eugene.
Countdown to West Virginia: 4 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 179 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 256 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Does Hillary play nice? The big question if Clinton stays in the race is this: Just how will she campaign? Yesterday, there were no negative TV ads or attack mailers. But Clinton did stress that she can win the general, implying that Obama might not be able to. "I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she told USA Today, citing her support with white working-class voters. It's comments like that one that might drive more supers toward Obama pretty quickly. Why? Because they know the math, but they don't want her to spend three weeks making a case that Obama can't win. It will only weaken him. Here’s what Obama backer Chris Dodd said yesterday, per NBC’s Ken Strickland. "You're going to be asking a bunch of people [in West Virginia] to vote against somebody who's likely to be your nominee a few weeks later? And turn around and ask the very same people a few weeks later to reverse themselves and now vote for [Obama] on election day?"
*** A signal to superdelegates? Yesterday in West Virginia, Hillary said: "I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee." Was that a signal to superdelegates -- telling them that if you want me out of the race, come out and endorse Obama? In a way, it seemed she was almost daring supers to come out and endorse Obama. Yesterday, four did (see below), but it was just four. It that a sign of how Democrats are still afraid to be against the Clintons? Take a look at that list of undeclared supers. How many of them want to be able to always claim to the Clintons, "Hey, we were never against ya?" Of course, the Clintons will know who wasn't with them, so we're not sure what these undeclared supers will be buying by staying silently for Obama.
*** Bill’s kill rate: As we and others noted in the build-up to Tuesday’s contests, Bill Clinton worked his tail off campaigning for his wife. According to NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, Bill famously did more than 50 campaign stops in North Carolina – all told, they encompassed a whopping 41 of the state's 100 counties. BUT: Only 18 of those counties went for Hillary Clinton. (The former president actually spent more than one long day campaigning in a string of towns, which all eventually went for Obama and by no small margin either.) For her part, Hillary Clinton did 22 stops in the Tar Heel State, for a total of fifteen counties. But she won only THREE of the counties she visited (Gastonia, Iredell, and Henderson). But where she did win, she won by a wide margin. Of the counties in her column where she or her husband campaigned in North Carolina, her AVERAGE margin of victory was almost 20 points. What about Indiana? The former president hit 35 of the state's counties during his visits to the state. His wife won all but eight.
*** Deal or no deal? Everything we're hearing is that a deal over Florida and Michigan could be cut in the next few days. The Obama campaign apparently realizes they have plenty of room to give. The hurdle isn't Clinton and Obama anymore, though; it is folks in the DNC who believe those two recalcitrant states still need to be punished in some form, so states realize there are consequences to doing this in 2012. The latest offer from Michigan is a 69-59 split, with supers going however they want. The two state parties don't want to be halved, meaning their delegate votes become .5, a la Democrats Abroad. But it's clear to us that DNC types want some flesh on this issue. Many hate the idea of Florida and Michigan getting full delegations simply because now it appears their delegations won't make a difference in the process.
*** That’s some price tag: How do we know the superdelegate story has gotten absurd? When superdelegates begin selling their vote for $20 million. Per a report, California superdelegate Steven Ybarra is putting up his support for that amount. “Ybarra wants every cent of the $20 million to go toward registering and educating eligible Mexican-American voters… He thinks his own party is crazy for not aggressively pursuing the Mexican-American vote especially with such a large Mexican-American population in the southwest.”
*** Team Edwards climbing aboard? Today, word is out that Edwards manager David Bonior is officially endorsing Obama. What about his former boss? Well, John Edwards will be on TODAY tomorrow. Will we see an endorsement from him? Also of note, Elizabeth Edwards is testifying on Capitol Hill today. We're sure some reporter will get her to comment on whether Clinton should stay or go and we're sure Edwards has an opinion about it.
*** The delegate drip: Obama picked up four superdelegates to Clinton’s net of one yesterday. George McGovern is not a superdelegate, but Obama did pick up a switcher, a Virginia DNC member. Here are the counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422; SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5-260; OVERALL: 1,848-1.695.5. The superdelegate count is the closest it has ever been. Remember that on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, Clinton had a 90-delegate advantage, per our count. Obama is 177 from the Magic Number of 2,025. There are 261.5 undeclared superdelegates. And there are still two delegates from Indiana and five from North Carolina to be allocated.
*** On the trail: Clinton holds rallies in Charleston, WV and Sioux Falls, SD and a town hall in Oregon; McCain appears live with Regis and Kelly, raises money in New Jersey, and attends the Time 100 Gala; and Obama is in DC, where he meets with Democratic superdelegates and raises money. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns in West Virginia.
Countdown to West Virginia: 5 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 180 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 257 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The game-changer: In a way, Clinton turned out to be prescient when she said that the North Carolina and Indiana contests would be a game-changer in the race for the Democratic nomination. What changed, however, was the story that Obama -- even though leading by every metric -- was on the defensive after losing Pennsylvania and after weeks of Jeremiah Wright and “bitter.” But in winning North Carolina last night, his margin of victory (more than 230,000) was even larger than the amount that Clinton won Pennsylvania by (about 215,000). In fact, when you combine Clinton’s narrow victory in Indiana and Obama’s much larger one in the Tar Heel State, he ALMOST netted more votes than Clinton obtained from Pennsylvania. In short, we’re right back to where we were on April 21, and that’s something that won’t be lost among Democratic superdelegates, especially after two weeks dominated by Wright.
*** The new math: Another thing that last night did was kill the Clinton’s campaign’s two best talking points. First, the popular vote: After last night, Obama now leads Clinton by more than 700,000 (16,050,924 vs. 15,336,896). When you include Florida, Obama leads by 419,256, and when you include both Florida and Michigan (and don’t give Obama “uncommitted”), his lead is 90,947. And here's what's left in our pop vote simulator
Total votes Clinton Obama Split
WV: 400,000 240,000 160,000 60-40
KY: 500,000 300,000 200,000 60-40
OR: 600,000 270,000 330,000 45-55
SD: 100,000 45,000 55,000 45-55
MT: 125,000 56,250 68,750 45-55
Totals 911,250 813,750
Under this scenario, Clinton will net 97,500 in the remaining contests. So Clinton can win the popular vote if you count Florida and Michigan, but it'll be close and it's just as likely with a bigger than expected win for Obama in Oregon that he can actually win the popular vote even with netting ZERO votes out of Michigan. This shows just how massive both turnout was in North Carolina and the margin of Obama's victory was in the state. Once again, he shows that when he wins a state, he wins big.
*** Mission: Impossible? Second, on the delegate front, if Florida and Michigan were seated as is and Obama got the uncommitted delegates in Michigan, Clinton would net an additional 32 delegates from Florida and 18 from Michigan -- for a total net of 50. So add those numbers into the current pledged delegate count and Obama still would lead in the pledged delegate count by more than 100, approximately 110 in fact. So let's use 110 as the baseline. For Clinton to overtake him in the pledged delegate lead using THEIR math on Florida and Michigan, she'd need to win 75% of all remaining delegates. That's an impossible task. Most importantly, knowing the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee the way we THINK we do, the likelihood of the committee NOT punishing Florida and Michigan in some way (say a cut in half of their delegates a la the Republicans) would then make this FL/MI exercise moot.
*** How did Obama stop the bleeding? One thing that jumps out at us is his performance in mostly white Indiana counties north of Indianapolis. He either won them or did much better than we expected. While he still struggled against Clinton in areas south of Indianapolis, his performance north of the city demonstrated his potential in the Midwest. Also, Obama improved with Catholics. After losing that group 70%-30% in Pennsylvania and 63%-36% in Ohio, Obama narrowed that margin to 59%-41% in Indiana; in fact, he won the county that includes South Bend. And the gas-tax debate also appears to have been a winner for Obama. Besides overshadowing (a bit) the Wright story over the days leading into last night’s contests, the debate played into Obama’s core message (that he will change the way Washington works) and played into Clinton’s chief negative (that she’ll say and do anything to win). That said, Obama didn't get the margins you might have expected in Indiana’s northwest counties close to Illinois. Our guess is there might have been a racial divide here, and Wright might have been a factor in the Chicago media market. Even in Lake County, Obama only won 55%-45%. That probably means he lost white vote there badly... You have to wonder how much he would have WON Indiana by if 1) there was no Wright controversy or 2) he had more time.
*** What now? As we mentioned yesterday, with more undeclared superdelegates remaining (266.5) than pledged delegates left (217), the race has moved from the campaign trail to the back rooms. In calls with undecided party leaders this morning, we are not sensing any urgency for Clinton to make a campaign decision this week; she's going to be given plenty of breathing room. Don't expect a HUGE rush of big name superdelegates to Obama’s side. If he picks a bunch of folks, they'll be the lesser-known folks, the ones who want some early credit for getting on the bandwagon. Meanwhile, over at the Clinton campaign, there will be a lot of people asking them about money today now that there are reports she loaned more money to the cause. Did a bunch of supporters kick in money? We're guessing if they had, we'd already know. Speaking of, one thing about Obama's victory and near miss last night: They would not have been possible without his well-funded operation and that should also be something that impresses superdelegates. He performed when his back was against the wall. He ran up margins in early votes, in absentee votes and had a superior GOTV operation.
*** Questions galore: One of the things about last night that will make it very hard for Clinton to convince folks she has a rationale for continuing her candidacy beyond making a statement is that there will be a rush to analyze just how she got to this point: the brink of elimination from the presidential sweepstakes. Some questions we expect many a reporter, strategist and analyst to ask and purse over the next days and weeks: If Iraq is never the first BIG issue of the primary campaign, does Obama even have a rationale for running? What if Clinton had voted against the Iraq war resolution or apologized for it before 2007? Was Bill Clinton an asset or a liability? Could she have gotten this far without him? Did he prevent her from becoming the change candidate? Did Mark Penn's focus on making Clinton appear ready to be Commander in Chief in 2007 rather than thinking about the party's left flank in the primary ultimately doom her? Who remembers that it was Clinton, not Obama, who had more money raised and in the bank at the end of ‘07? What if Clinton skips Iowa? What if Florida had stayed on the March 4 primary day and she won Florida, Ohio and Texas all on the same night? So many what ifs... And so many more we're missing…
*** A prescient McCain: Of all states for McCain to be in today, there may not be a better one than Michigan. This is a state that will be square in the battleground in any race between Obama and McCain. The Michigan delegate dispute and Obama's attacks on the auto industry will make things tough on him in this state. Then there's the whole Reagan Democrat issue. Of all the blue states on the Kerry 2004 map, Michigan may be the most vulnerable to a flip in a Obama-McCain match-up. So on this day that some believe the general election may be unofficially starting, McCain's in Michigan. Timing is everything.
*** On the trail: Clinton attends an event at Shepherd University in West Virginia with Chelsea and then holds a fundraiser in Washington, DC; McCain holds a town hall in Rochester, MI, goes to New York to tape Jon Stewart’s Daily Show, and then raises money in New York City; and Obama is down in Chicago with his family before returning to DC later in the evening.
Countdown to West Virginia: 6 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 181 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 258 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The beginning of the end? Is today the last day on the campaign trail? Sure, there are six more contests beyond these two in Indiana and North Carolina. But after today, there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and more disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) for the campaigns to fight over than there will be delegates earned in the remaining primaries (217). Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues. Can Obama hang tough with white voters, especially after the past two weeks? Can Clinton win any significant chunks of the black or youth vote? Those questions may not get answered fully today, but how each performs in their "road" game demographic tests will go a long way in pushing these supers in one direction or the other.
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VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the expected split decision in today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries.
***
The basics: At stake are a total of 187 pledged delegates -- 115 in North Carolina and 72 in Indiana. Polls open in North Carolina at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET. In Indiana, most polls open at 6:00 am ET and close at 6:00 pm ET, but because some parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone, the official poll closing time is 7:00 pm ET. And just to give you a sense of where the candidates think they’re the strongest, Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis, while Obama holds his in Raleigh, NC. Interestingly, however, Clinton seems to be on the upswing in North Carolina, and Obama seems on the upswing in Indiana. Yet both are likely to win on their "home" demographic courts. So what would the Vegas lines be today? Our guess: five points in each state, which should already be considered a perception victory for Clinton. But given the closet superdelegate support Obama seems to have, he's been given the benefit of the doubt with some if he simply wins North Carolina by, well, about five points. You'll know it will be a mediocre to bad night for Obama if his campaign has to talk about who won the most delegates tonight, rather than by how much they won each state.
*** How big is African-American turnout? There’s lots of chatter about the 40% of the early vote in North Carolina being African American. If that number somehow holds through Election Day voting, it would be an Obama blowout. But Obama folks caution that they saw this same phenomenon in Texas and found that they had simply moved Election Day voters to early voters. Other turnout numbers to watch for… Obama's performance among white voters in North Carolina. Will he get 30% or more? If so, he wins. If he drops below 30% of the white vote in that state, he'll be more reliant on a stronger African-American turnout. Meanwhile, in Indiana, don't underestimate the Chicago media market effect in the negative for Obama. Why? Local Chicago TV has been as obsessive -- if not more -- than the national media. No national media outlet, for instance, has asked their news helicopter to hover over Rev. Wright's house. How many Northwest Indiana households saw THAT?
*** Where we stand: Obama leads in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,492 to 1,338), overall delegates (1,750 to 1,611), the popular vote (14,449,123 to 13,965,804), and the total number of contests won (30 to 15). Note: We’re not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates.
*** A few other questions: When is John Edwards going to get his due? In all seriousness, haven't both candidates attempted to channel their best John Edwards in these last two months? That said, it’s also worth pointing out that he and his wife never endorsed, even though one of today’s contests is their home state. That either tells us about their true indecision or their secret fear that endorsing Clinton wouldn't be enough and would hurt Edwards' cred... If Hillary wins North Carolina, will Bill Clinton deserve all the credit? And does this mean the media will begin to scrutinize him again? Just what would his role in a Hillary White House be? And what about those potential conflicts of interests (Colombia, Giustra, etc.)? Our point: With the good of Bill Clinton finding his role and voice can come the bad once the spotlight comes back on… And what message does the National Right to Life's robo-call effort on behalf of Clinton send to undeclared superdelegates on the electability score. NRTL is one of the more aggressive third-party conservative groups in the biz, and they usually are helping to telegraph mainstream conservative opinion on who the opponent is or isn't.
*** And still more questions: When was the last time Obama introduced a policy initiative that forced a debate? Now, part of the reason is that Clinton has been much more adept at finding issues they disagree on, while she hugs anything he introduces proactively. Still, Obama hasn't driven the issue agenda since the days that Iraq was the No. 1 issue… And given that Indiana is an open primary, will we see some solid evidence that Republicans are trying to play games with the ongoing Democratic primary? If Clinton, according to the exit polls, gets more than 50% of GOP voters, will we know something is up? And can we stop calling the dispute over Florida/Michigan the "nuclear" option? When even the chair of the DNC says those two states' delegations will be seated, it's hard to call it some sort of nuclear option. Obama supporters believe it's the nuclear option, Clinton supporters believe it's part of the process. But so does Howard Dean.
*** Down the ballot: Clinton vs. Obama, however, isn’t the only race in Indiana and North Carolina that bears watching today. Both states are holding competitive gubernatorial primaries, and a large turnout by female voters in the Clinton-Obama race could end up benefiting the two women who are running for governor, the Cook Political Report’s Jennifer Duffy tells First Read. In Indiana, Jim Schellinger competes against Jill Long Thompson in the Democratic primary for the right to face incumbent GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels. Polls for this Dem race have been all over the place, Duffy says. In North Carolina, Lt. Gov Bev Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- both of whom have endorsed Obama -- square off to be the Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee, and Perdue appears to be the favorite. Perdue seems to have gotten more credit for endorsing Obama with black voters, even though Moore endorsed him first. As one consultant told us yesterday, this is NOT the year of the white guy, and we may see that in BOTH states today. That winner will face the victor of a crowded GOP field led by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith, but it’s possible that no Republican crosses the 40% threshold to avoid a run off. Just asking: How important is Clinton's candidacy to both women running in Indiana and North Carolina and would both be in a position of winning without her?
*** Judicial philosophy day: It’s probably not surprising that McCain picked this day -- primary day in Indiana and North Carolina -- to give a speech on his judicial philosophy in Winston-Salem, NC. The speech, according to excerpts released by the campaign, will certainly please social conservatives, and it also will raise this DNC talking point: that once again on an important issue, McCain -- he of the Gang of 14 -- has taken a position that doesn’t contrast much with Bush’s. "My two prospective opponents and I have very different ideas about the nature and proper exercise of judicial power. We would nominate judges of a different kind, a different caliber, a different understanding of judicial authority and its limits,” McCain is expected to say. “I have my own standards of judicial ability, experience, philosophy, and temperament. And Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito meet those standards in every respect. They would serve as the model for my own nominees if that responsibility falls to me.” At his speech, McCain will be joined by conservatives like Ted Olson and Fred Thompson.
*** On the trail: Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis; McCain, after his speech on the judiciary, raises money in Greensboro, NC before heading to Michigan for a fundraiser; and Obama begins his day in Indianapolis before traveling to Raleigh, NC, where he holds his Election Night rally.
Countdown to West Virginia: 7 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 182 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 259 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Math Game: Both candidates seemed very exhausted during their morning show appearances on TODAY and Morning Joe. And that probably isn’t surprising -- tomorrow is the last BIG primary day. Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.
*** Enough baggage to fill a plane: There’s also plenty baggage going into tomorrow… Clinton can't name a single economist to back up her gas-tax plan. While it's easy to dismiss the idea that economists are heartless folks, isn't one of the chief criticisms of Bush is that he doesn't listen to experts? Also, Clinton defended her "obliterate" Iran comment on Sunday, but refused to reuse the word (doesn't that suggest she DOES regret the choice of words?) Meanwhile, Obama may have to explain at some point his quid pro quo with the Teamsters; how does one who is promising a new transparency in politics promise something that the general public has to find out about via reporters asking tough questions? And then there’s Wright, Wright, Wright. When Obama can get through a TV interview without the name Rev. Wright coming up, that's when he'll know he's out of the woods. So far, he's not out of the woods.
*** Poll watch: A new USA Today/Gallup poll out today is disastrous for Obama. He now trails Clinton by seven points and trails her by five on the question of who would be the more electable nominee. A Clinton sweep, and the CW on Obama could absolutely reverse course over night. Then again, an Obama win in just one of the two states and he probably stops the national poll slide. Meanwhile, the latest New York Times/CBS poll has better numbers for Obama: He has a 12-point lead over Clinton; a strong majority approves of the way in which he handled the Wright controversy; and both he and Clinton sport double-digit leads over McCain in hypothetical general election match-ups.
*** Bill’s excellent adventure: If there was ever a day to do a day-on-the-trail story about Bill Clinton, today's the day As we mentioned last week, Bill Clinton makes a whopping nine stops in North Carolina today, most of them in rural parts of the state. The stops? Elizabeth City, New Bern, Jacksonville, Smithfield, Zebulon, Louisburg, Henderson, Roxboro, and Raleigh. As the Washington Post puts it, “After a series of awkward moments and costly missteps while campaigning for his wife, Clinton has finally discovered a role that suits him. He's become the campaign's self-proclaimed ‘ambassador to small-town America,’ traveling to places where the mere arrival of his motorcade signals a significant moment in local history, where his charm and affability carry substantial weight among voters.”
*** The weekend in delegates: Obama picked up four superdelegates over the weekend, to Clinton’s net of zero. Obama got the backing of New Mexico Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon and three add-on superdelegates -- former Maryland Gov. Parris Glendening, former South Carolina Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum and Guam add-on Jamie Paulino (after Obama won the Pacific island territory by seven votes). Paulino beat out Clinton backer Cecilia Mafnas, who was previously the vice chair and counted into our superdelegate count. Evening things out, Clinton picked up the other Maryland add-on: former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. Obama is also expected to pick up the three Illinois add-on superdelegates today around 2:00 pm after the Illinois Democratic Party’s committee meets to officially name the trio. (Note: The Obama campaign announced Kalyn Free of Oklahoma as another super, but we’d already had her on the list as an Obama supporter.) The Delegate Counts: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273-254; PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338; OVERALL: Obama 1,746-1,611. There are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Since the Pennsylvania primary: It's Obama +17, Clinton +11; Since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: It's Obama +84, Clinton +13; Since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4: It's Obama +41, Clinton +20.
*** Dems win another GOP seat: The questions about the GOP brand and the problems rank-and-file Republican congressional candidates are feeling will continue to linger after the party lost yet another special election Saturday -- this one in Louisiana, where Don Cazayoux (D) beat Woody Jenkins 49%-46 (R) to replace Richard Baker (R). The GOP will be hitting the panic button furiously if the Dems win another upcoming special congressional election in Mississippi district that’s 60%-plus GOP.
*** McCain in the Tar Heel state: McCain, who probably is getting tired of getting the also-ran type of coverage these days, heads to North Carolina, where he's likely to grab some of the media coattails from the Clinton-Obama race.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Clinton begins her day in North Carolina (in Greenville) and then travels to Indiana (hitting Merrillville, New Albany, and Evansville); Obama begins his day in Evansville, IN, then goes to North Carolina (for a discussion with workers in Durham) and then returns to Indiana (for a rally in Indianapolis; and Michelle Obama -- like Bill Clinton -- is in North Carolina.
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 1 day
Countdown to West Virginia: 8 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 15 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 183 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 260 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama’s back against the wall: After Pennsylvania, a lot of folks -- including us -- figured that Obama would win North Carolina by as much, or even more, than Clinton won the Keystone State, thus erasing the gains she made there in delegates and the popular vote. But the race in Carolina is tightening from the double-digit lead he once held; a new Research 2000 poll has him up by seven points, 51%-44%. After several days of Jeremiah Wright dominating the news -- plus some new polls showing an erosion of support -- Obama's back is against the wall, at least in terms of perception and momentum. Of course, almost every time a candidate's back has been against the wall this campaign (think Clinton and McCain in NH, Obama and McCain in SC, and Clinton in OH and PA), that candidate has flourished. Will Obama continue the trend? His appearance on Meet the Press this Sunday might offer some clues.
VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray gives his first read on the tightening North Carolina race and previews Tuesday's primary there and in Indiana.
***
The front-runner spotlight: Should Tuesday’s results end up giving Clinton more momentum and extend this race even longer, it could be the worse thing to happen to Clinton. Why? It could invite the dreaded front-runner spotlight. Think about it: None of the remaining candidates has done well when the media spotlight was on them the brightest. The most intense coverage McCain received was in the first six months of 2007, the worst six months of his campaign and the period of time he was the closest thing the GOP had to an inevitable nominee. Clinton's toughest coverage came from about October 2007 to March 1, 2008, the worst six months of her campaign and the time she was considered the inevitable nominee. Now, it's Obama's turn in this version of "kill the man." Remember that game? Where the goal was for everyone to tackle the person with the football? Welcome to political kill the man, in which the media and opponents have successfully tackled McCain last year, Clinton earlier this year, and Obama now. Of course, someone has to survive this war of attrition. We're not going to find new candidates to tackle, are we?
*** 96 hours to go: Indiana and North Carolina are the two biggest states left on the calendar (sorry Puerto Rico, we know you may have a higher turnout than Indiana and more voters, you won't have more delegates). And because of the fairly large and swing nature of Indiana and North Carolina, it's fair to say that if either candidate sweeps the contests, it's going to be a major turning point in the campaign. An Obama sweep, and Clinton might not last the week. A Clinton sweep, meanwhile, and a contested convention is guaranteed. A split decision, and the trickle to Obama by uncommitted superdelegates probably continues and Obama keeps up his successful limp toward the finish line.
*** The over and under: So with this in mind, let's have some Vegas-like fun. If Vegas were charged with setting the line, our best guess is that Clinton would be giving three points in Indiana, while Obama would giving five points in North Carolina. This doesn't mean this is the prediction for either state we're making, this is simply the margin of victory projection that we think would invite an even amount of money being bet on each candidate. If you actually could find someone to take a bet on the margin of victory for both candidates, you'd need to ask yourself this question when looking at the polling: Where will undecideds go? Does Obama nab any of these undecideds? There are some analysts who believe Obama won't win many of them in either North Carolina or Indiana. And if that's the case, watch out -- both states could be VERY surprising. Undecideds haven't broken for Obama since February. Is this a race deal? So while folks aren't lying to pollsters about support for Obama, those who want to vote against Obama on race are saying they are undecided.
*** Bill works it hard in Carolina: The Clinton campaign clearly seems to smell something in North Carolina. Bill Clinton is barnstorming the state like nobody's business on Monday. He's got nine -- count 'em NINE -- stops on Monday. Phew. One of us has argued that Hillary wouldn't have gotten this far without Bill, and can't get across the finish line because of him. BUT, if she pulls the upset in North Carolina, it will be Bill's victory. It's just stunning how well he's working these small southern towns. In fact, whoever the nominee is, Bill may be showing the playbook for how to use the former president: send him to these Ruby Red Southern states and let him do his thing. He may be gaffe-a-week prone on the national stage, but sending him to the rural white parts of the South might be a smart move if he'll agree to do it -- if Obama's the nominee. Perhaps the only way he'll agree to campaign this hard in the fall in these areas is if his wife's on the ticket. And it's this last point that we think many of us have overlooked: Has Clinton stayed in this race for so long against all delegate math odds because she wants to force Obama's hand on the No. 2 slot?
*** The day in delegates: Today, Obama camp unveiled another former DNC Chair, Paul G. Kirk. Yesterday, Clinton added four superdelegates to her total; Obama added two, including a switch from Clinton. Clinton got four New York add-ons (Obama will get three after the Illinois convention this weekend) and CT DNC member John Olsen (president of the state AFL-CIO). But Clinton lost a key IN supporter Joe Andrew, a former DNC chair appointed by Bill Clinton. Obama also got TX DNC member John Patrick, the state AFL-CIO vice president. The count: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 272-250; PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334; OVERALL: 1,740-1,606.
*** Louisiana special watch: In Louisiana tomorrow, there’s a special election between Don Cazayoux (D) and Woody Jenkins (R) to replace Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned his seat to take a lobbying job. And as it stands right now, after the Democrats captured Denny Hastert’s seat earlier in the year, Democrats are well positioned to win a second GOP-held district. The reason, says David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, is that Cazayoux appears to be the better candidate. “Democrats have a better candidate… I think the candidate is important in a special election,” in which turnout is usually low. The Republican groups -- the NRCC and Freedom’s Watch -- have tried to nationalize this race by linking the conservative Cazayoux to Obama and Pelosi on taxes and health care. But Democrats believe that by nationalizing the race, especially bringing Obama’s name into the mix, will help boost the turnout of African Americans, who make up about 35% of the district.
*** Don’t you forget about me: By the way, Guam votes tomorrow (or is Sunday or did it take place yesterday; that whole International Dateline confuses us). Four pledged delegates at stake.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in North Carolina, stumping in Hendersonville and Greensboro and speaking at the North Carolina Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Raleigh; McCain campaigns in Colorado, where he holds a health care town hall and speaks to reporters before heading to Arizona; and Obama has a morning event in Hammond, IN, then goes to the Tar Heel State, holding a rally in Charlotte and also speaking at the J-J Dinner in Raleigh. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns in Indiana and Michelle Obama is in North Carolina.
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 4 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 11 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 18 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 186 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 263 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain’s Bush problem: Yes, Jeremiah Wright could be a huge liability for Obama if he becomes the nominee. Sure, questions about Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness could also hurt her in a general election, as well as Bill Clinton’s return to the White House. But according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, the biggest political albatross heading into November is -- drum roll, please -- George Bush. In the poll, 43% say McCain being too closely aligned to Bush and his policies is a major concern. That’s compared with 36% who say that about Clinton’s apparent flip-flops; 34% who say that about Obama’s bitter-guns-religion remark; 32% who say that about Wright and Bill Ayers; 31% who say that about Clinton’s honesty and trustworthiness; 27% who say that about Bill Clinton having too much influence on policy decisions; 17% who say that about Obama not being patriotic enough; and 16% who believe McCain might be too old. When you add that Bush problem to other macro-political trends -- just 27% approve of Bush’s job (his lowest mark ever in the survey), just 15% think the country is on the right track, 81% believe the country is in a recession -- that’s quite a head wind McCain and the Republicans are facing. So while the political world might beat the Wright issue to death or parse every little thing Bill says, let’s not forget overall dynamics of this presidential election.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the turnaround in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.
***
Maverick or Bush ally? Of course, the above concern about Bush raises this question: Just how closely aligned is McCain to Bush? Well, the Arizona senator certainly has broken with Bush and the GOP on several issues: campaign finance reform (although Bush did sign that into law), judges (the Gang of 14), and torture. And those breaks certainly appear to help him among independents (see below). But some took place a while ago. What’s more, on the biggest issues out there -- Iraq, health care, economic policy (especially taxes) -- there is very little room between McCain and the president. McCain has spent the past several weeks since locking up the GOP nomination by solidifying his base, unveiling policy proposals, and raising money. But does he now begin breaking more with Bush? He started last week, when he disagreed with Bush’s handling of Katrina. What comes next?
*** It’s the values, stupid…: While the overall political environment is tough for the GOP, McCain is running neck-and-neck with his Democratic rivals. In the NBC/WSJ survey, Obama leads the Arizona senator by three points (46%-43%) and Clinton is ahead of him by one (45%-44%). What’s going on here? Besides McCain’s appeal among independents, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) offers this explanation: values. “What is driving his image … is values,” he says. “It is faith, honor, country, and patriotism.” Indeed, 54% of respondents say that they identify with McCain’s background and set of values, compared with 46% of who say that of Clinton and 45% who say that of Obama, (which is a drop from the 50% who said this of the Illinois senator in late March). So ironically, if McCain ends up winning in November, it won’t be because of national security or Iraq; it will be because of values.
*** A house divided: Another thing that seems to be helping McCain is the ongoing contentious Democratic primary. In the poll, only 25% of Clinton voters say they would vote for Obama in the general with enthusiasm, with 30% saying they would NOT vote Obama. Similarly, just 26% of Obama voters say they would vote for Clinton enthusiastically in the general, with 22% saying they would NOT vote for Clinton. Moreover, nearly four in 10 Obama voters say they don’t identify with Clinton’s background and values, while almost five in 10 Clinton voters say the same about Obama. “The longer this contest is going on … the more they are beginning to dislike their opponent,” explains NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). “It is extremely difficult for Republicans… But it’s being balanced by the fault lines [within] the Democratic Party.” The good news for the Democrats is that Obama’s or Clinton’s numbers will go up if they can bring their rival’s voters back in the fold. But is that an “if” or a “when”?
*** Has Obama become Clinton? What’s also interesting in the poll is that Obama’s support among independents isn’t too far off from Clinton’s. In an Obama-McCain match-up, McCain leads Obama among indies by 11 points (46%-35%), while his lead over Clinton is 14 points (46%-32%). Obama leads Clinton by three points (46%-43%) in the NBC/WSJ poll. But six to seven weeks of Wright and “bitter” have taken a toll on his standing with independents. The electability argument Obama used so well with superdelegates over the last few months is not backed up by facts anymore. The only thing Obama has going for him is his Dem opponent, who has similar image problems. The poll was conducted of 1,006 registered voters from April 25-28 -- as the Wright controversy resurfaced but BEFORE Obama’s speech denouncing his former pastor -- and it has an overall 3.1% margin of error.
*** Super switcheroo: A former Clinton-appointed DNC chairman, and early endorser of Hillary Clinton, has switched to Obama. Indianapolis native Joe Andrew told the AP, "I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party.” He said he is switching, then, because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain." Andrew and the Obama camp will make it official at a 10:00 am Indianapolis news conference. This brings Obama the closest he’s ever been to Clinton in the superdelegate total. SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 267-Obama 248 (280 undeclared). Obama has an 11-5 superdelegate advantage since the Pennsylvania primary. And since Clinton’s victories in Ohio and Texas, Obama has picked up 35 supers to Clinton’s 14; PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334; OVERALL: 1,738-1,601.
*** Just asking: But when is Clinton going to talk an Obama superdelegate into switching? Do they have a few in their pocket for May 7 if they somehow sweep Tuesday’s contests? For now, it seems it's Obama who continues to have more lure to superdelegates and continues to find the occasional Clinton switcher. The addition of Andrew to Obama's fold is a big deal because of his title and because of the fact Bill Clinton appointed him to the job in the '90s. But it's what Andrew said that could have resonance: "I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party.” Does Andrew become a Clinton superdelegate whip at this point?
*** Expectations setting: A new Mason-Dixon poll in North Carolina shows that the constant barrage of bad news for Obama over this last week has taken a toll. The new poll has Obama's once insurmountable lead in the Tar Heel state looking, well, surmountable. He leads by just seven points, 49%-42%. Whispers out of Indiana indicate Clinton's on the move in some private polls and might even have the lead in the Hoosier State. So if Clinton takes this momentum and closes like she has in the last few primaries, the Democrats could have some mess on their hands on May 7. The New York Times has a piece today that claims she needs a big win in Indiana, not just a narrow one. We'll see if that's a fair expectations bar, but one thing's for sure: It does seem as if the expectations game is playing in Obama's favor despite the bad climate for him right now.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Indiana, making stops in Indianapolis, Jeffersonville, and Terre Haute; McCain already appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe from Cleveland, OH, where he holds a town hall, and then -- in a blast from the past -- heads to Des Moines, IA; and Obama, like Clinton, is in Indiana, stumping in Columbia City, Middlebury, and Lakeport. And in the spouse watch, Michelle Obama is in Indiana and Bill Clinton is in West Virginia and Indiana.
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 5 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 12 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 187 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 264 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Dumping Wright: A day ago, we asked if yesterday would be the day Jeremiah Wright would go away, at least in the context of the Obama-Clinton primary race. Well, not quite. Obama made sure the story would last one more day by holding a press conference in which he unequivocally denounced Wright. That denunciation -- just like his speech on race more than a month ago -- has received universal praise. It made him look strong, and it might have even helped him a bit if he wins the nomination (after all, denouncing him now is MUCH better than doing so in October). But the criticisms still to be leveled against Obama are twofold: 1) it was late and 2) he did this only after Wright personally attacked him; Obama didn't get angry over the OTHER things Wright said, but only when Wright made it personal. One thing still hanging in the air: will Wright respond; he did a sort-of response through a blind quote in the New York Post but considering how upset black church leaders seem to be with Wright, he may end up keeping quiet. Clearly, superdelegates were the most important audience yesterday. They may be relieved Obama finally showed an ability to deal with a baggage crisis head-on, but they still will want to know if Wright will continue to dog him. Obama's back was against the wall and he delievered. But like every other time, it feels a little late, the question is, was it TOO late.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses Obama's fallout with his former pastor. ***
The odd good news for Obama: The Wright Story Volume 2, which began on Thursday when PBS released excerpts of the reverend’s interview with Bill Moyers, has now lasted six days -- which, by the way, is the same amount of time between now and Tuesday’s elections in Indiana and North Carolina. And unlike right before the past contests in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, it is Clinton -- not Obama -- who seems to have all the momentum. The perception is that Obama is bleeding. But this COULD be a good thing for Obama, relatively speaking, of course. Clinton won the expectations game in those past three contests, primarily because it seemed like Obama had all the Mo’. But now that Mo’ is on Clinton’s side. What happens if Obama is still able to defeat Clinton by double digits in North Carolina and essentially split the delegates in Indiana? Of course, the bigger question for his campaign might be: What if he doesn’t? And what if those exit poll cross-tabs in North Carolina and Indiana show white voters abandoning Obama in greater numbers than in Ohio and Pennsylvania?
*** Hillary, working 9 to 5: Per NBC’s Ron Allen, Clinton begins her day today with an interesting "event." A typical Indiana resident -- Jason Allen Wilfing, who has worked at Deluxe Sheet Metal for 15 years -- will just happen to stop by the hotel where Clinton is staying, and she will join him on his typical commute to work. And what's more, they will have to stop for gas. (The tank just happens to be running dry while Clinton's along for the ride.) Clinton will then help Wilfing pump gas. And then he will complete the typical trip to work. Of course, we all wonder when was the last time Clinton drove a car? Or pumped gas? Or even, after that $109 million, had to worry about the cost of gas? Politicians do all kinds of things to attract votes, but this has the potential to be memorable. Indeed.
*** Pander alert: The Clinton gas event is yet another sign that Clinton is trying to harken back to the '90s and hammer home the "I feel your pain" aspect of the Clinton years that voters responded to so well back then. But the debate over the gas-tax holiday is an interesting one -- and it's a test of just how closely voters are following the campaign. Will voters respond simply on the pocketbook front and demand this gas tax holiday, despite all the downsides that many experts have outlined about the idea? It's the old "if it feels good, do it" (that Clinton and McCain have seen succeed for so long during times that pocketbook politics have dominated the debate) versus the intellectual argument Obama is trying to have (that usually is praised by, well, intellectuals but dismissed by rank-and-file voters who want their tax cut or gas prices cut). Clinton is trying to own this issue big time -- even running TV ads about it and constantly criticizing Obama for not supporting the gas-tax holiday.Obama's criticism of McCain's plan and Clinton's are accurate. The only problem is it leaves voters saying, "Ok, it's a gimmick; so what's your proposal? This feels like Clinton v. Tsongas '92. But the electorate acts as if its more informed than it was 16 years ago, and also could be a bit more distrustful of government handouts than in the past. Regardless, one could argue that the Clinton-Obama debate over this issue sums up their candidacies and potential presidencies. In this environment, which do voters prefer?
*** How low can you go; how high can you fly? Yesterday, we released some early numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out tonight. The numbers? Only 21% approve of President Bush's job in handling the economy -- his lowest number ever as president on that question. Also, a whopping 81% believe the US is currently in a recession. Interested in the latest numbers in the Obama-Clinton race? Want to know how both stack up against McCain? Or curious about which party -- Democratic or Republican -- holds the advantage heading into November? And want to know which relationship is worse: Bush or Wright? Tune into Nightly News, or click onto MSNBC.com, at 6:30 pm ET.
*** One more plug: Obama will be on Meet the Press for the full hour this Sunday. Tim Russert will travel to Indianapolis to sit down with the Democratic front-runner for the live interview, taking place on the even of what could be the most significant primaries of the campaign season. Set your TiVOs now if for some reason you haven't yet clicked "season pass" for Meet the Press.
*** Closer to the magic number: Obama picked up another superdelegate just this morning, Rep. Bruce Braley (IA), who was a strong supporter of Edwards. Yesterday, Obama picked up two more superdelegates: Kentucky congressman Ben Chandler and Iowa DNC member Richard Machacek. Clinton also picked up one: Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton. Skelton cited Clinton’s “support in rural America” as a reason for backing her. Since the Pennsylvania primary, Obama has gotten eight superdelegates to Clinton’s four. Here’s where the counts stand: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 266-245; PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334; OVERALL: Obama 1,735-1,600.
*** On the trail: Clinton spends her day in Indiana, stumping in South Bend, Portage, Lafayette, and Kokomo; McCain raises money in Florida and then holds another health-care event in Allentown, PA; and Obama, in Indiana, has events in Indianapolis and then holds a rally at Indiana University in Bloomington. Also, Bill Clinton has a whopping seven events in North Carolina, and Michelle Obama is in Indiana.
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 6 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 13 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 20 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 188 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 265 days
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Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Is today the day Wright goes away? Maybe -- at least in the context of the Obama-Clinton campaign. As we speculated yesterday, if there was a silver lining to Wright dominating the news, it was that voters were easily able to distinguish between the two men. Reviews of Wright’s performance at the National Press Club were absolutely brutal. The New York Times’ Alessandra Stanley wrote, “Wright revealed himself to be the compelling but slightly wacky uncle who unsettles strangers but really just craves attention… Wright doesn’t hate America, he loves the sound of his own voice.” If yesterday was the end of the Wright story, then the next week may actually be something the Obama camp looks forward to. Bob Herbert perhaps put Obama’s last six weeks the best: "Obama seems more and more like someone buffeted by events, rather than in charge of them.” And that's something that he has to change soon if he hopes to change the subject in time to put Clinton away on May 6. Also, Obama began a stronger pushback on Wright late last night, per NBC’s Andrea Mitchell: "My opponents realize they don't have the better argument so what they're now saying is 'Well, I don't know about Obama. You know, we, we gotta, we gotta know more about him and you know, he doesn't wear a flag pin. His former pastor said something and he's, he's got uh, we don't know what his values are. We don't know if he's patriotic. He's got a funny name, you know, it sounds, sounds Muslim.’ That, that's what's dominated. That is what has dominated political coverage over the last several weeks."
*** The downballot effect: Republicans are certainly linking Obama to Democrats running in two upcoming special congressional elections. In Mississippi, Greg Davis (R) is running an ad using Jeremiah Wright against Travis Childers (D). And in Louisiana, Freedom’s Watch is airing an ad whacking Don Cazayoux (D) by tying him to Obama’s health-care agenda. As our friends at Hotline noted yesterday, these Democrats have been unable to easily swat away these attacks. “Both Dems have succeeded so far by avoiding the liberal tag, and in many cases, the Dem label. But in an interview on XM radio 4/26, Childers avoided discussing the WH race like the plague. In Cazayoux's response ad to GOP attacks, he also ignored the WH contest. Both answers seemed greatly lacking.” But Democrats -- who are thrilled to be playing in these two contests, especially the one in Mississippi -- believe that attacks on Obama could help turn out the sizable African-American populations in both districts. Still, the GOP using Obama in downballot races presents this dilemma to Democrats: Until Obama (or Clinton) wraps up the nomination, it’s hard for the DNC, DCCC, and DSCC to whack back at these kind of attacks on their downballot candidates. And this is why it seems Obama can't beat back these attacks; He's getting hit on three or four fronts, and there are no third-party groups who can help back him up because these groups aren't ready to pick between Clinton and Obama just yet.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd talks about the aftermath of yesterday's Wright speech, the debate over a Summer gas-tax holiday, and the continued fight for superdelegates.
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Pump it up: If it hadn’t been for Wright's appearance yesterday, there would have been a substantive policy debate over an issue that would have received a ton of coverage. The issue? A gas-tax holiday. The matter actually has interesting alliances. McCain and Clinton favor a temporary halt to the 18.4-cent federal gas tax (although Clinton calls for a tax on oil company profits to pay for it), while Obama and the White House oppose it. A gas-tax holiday might be good politics -- pander bears anyone? -- but it's viewed by some as lousy policy. In fact, the
New York Times confirms Obama’s argument that such a holiday would save consumers no more than $30, about a half of tank of gas. But pander politics can trump intellectual arguments in the short term.
*** Electability watch: Lots of new information for superdelegates to weigh today: A new AP/Ipsos poll has Clinton doing MUCH better against McCain than Obama does; another poll has Obama beating McCain in Wisconsin, but Clinton losing to the Arizona Republican; elected superdelegates, per the Wall Street Journal, see Obama as being the better candidate for Dem downballot candidates; but NRCC chair Tom Cole adds his two cents: “I think [Obama’s] the weaker candidate.” What do all of these things tell us? Doesn’t look like much has changed, at least for now.
*** McCain’s house call: Last week it was poverty; this week it's health care. For a candidate who has been hit with being a one-trick pony (Iraq and national security), McCain is doing what he can to make sure folks realize he'll have a robust domestic agenda. Beginning yesterday, he has launched a week-long focus on health care this week. His plan, not surprisingly is reliant on the free market, which he hopes will drive down the cost of health care by slowly moving folks away from having to rely on employers for health care. The Washington Post identifies a $5,000 tax credit as the centerpiece of McCain's proposal, which would be used for individuals to search out the best insurance for their needs. McCain will also borrow a page from Mike Huckabee and talk about prevention and nutrition. McCain backs up his launch with a statewide TV buy in Iowa focused on health care. Meanwhile, the SEIU begins a $1 million TV ad campaign in Ohio hitting McCain for his lack of attention on rising health-care costs. The ad features Bush and McCain hugging and even shows Bush kissing McCain (a visual we bet we'll see again and again and again). There will be a similar ad set to run in DC and West Virginia, but the Ohio buy is a big one and dwarfs, for instance, any anti-McCain spot the DNC has aired to date.
*** Slow ride, take it Easley: In Raleigh, NC this morning, Clinton received one of her biggest endorsements in the last couple of months -- from North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley -- who comes from one of the upcoming pivotal states: North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley. Per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, Easley was long suspected of being in the Clinton camp, but many believed that he would stay neutral. One key to Clinton's past victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania were the huge endorsements from the governors in those states. Easley's endorsement comes just one week before the state's primary, so Clinton might not be able to tap into his political network/machine the way she did with Strickland’s and Rendell’s. But Easley's help, no matter how late, certainly doesn’t hurt. That said, while Easley is retiring after this year, Obama has endorsements from North Carolina's two gubernatorial candidates. What does that tell us about the makeup of the primary electorate?
*** Crunching the numbers: While Clinton picked up a superdelegate with Easley’s endorsement, Obama yesterday got his own from New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman. Here are the counts: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 265-242 (288 uncommitted); PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334; OVERALL: Obama 1,733-1,599.
*** On the trail: After her event in Raleigh, NC, Clinton makes six stops in the Hoosier State -- Indianapolis, Gary, Hobart, Evansville, Princeton, and South Bend; McCain, still in Florida, speaks at a cancer research center at the University of South Florida in Tampa and then raises money in Tampa and Bonita Springs; and Obama holds town halls in Winston-Salem and Hickory, NC. Also, Bill Clinton stumps for his wife in North Carolina.
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 7 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 14 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 21 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 189 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 266 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** You’re so vain, you probably think this campaign is about you: After addressing the NAACP yesterday in Detroit, Jeremiah Wright travels to the heart of the media beast -- the National Press Club in DC -- where he has been speaking this morning. At this point, no matter one's political inexperience, Wright has to know he's not helping his friend; his decision to go public and defend his reputation at this point in the campaign is doing nothing to help Obama, if anything, it's leading some to believe he's actually trying to sabotage him. He's hurting him and hurting him very badly. Frankly, it’s as selfish of a move as we've seen in some time. Imagine, for example, if Norman Hsu or Vicki Iseman were doing publicity tours right now. Maybe, if there's a silver lining for Obama, he's giving Obama a very easy chance to simply walk away. Remember, Obama didn't toss Wright under the bus, but Wright appears to be doing that to Obama’s candidacy. Still, if Wright Vol. 1, “bitter,” and Pennsylvania didn’t move superdelegates, what will? Nevertheless, Obama seems to be starting off this week in about as bad of shape as we've seen in him in some time.
*** McCain on the offensive: One of the more interesting political developments over the past few days has been McCain’s harsh tone toward Obama -- on Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, and even Hamas (noting that the terrorist organization prefers Obama to win the presidency). A few things seem to be going on here. One, it looks like McCain is using this to define Obama on these matters. Two, the Arizona senator seems to be trying to draw a line in the sand now that he’s going to be tough on Obama -- unlike how Obama’s Democratic rivals treated him early on. (If they set the ground rules this far out, they can draw him into a fight early and potentially hurt him on his greatest strength: that he’s above the fray.) And three, it seems McCain is trying to shore up his base and placate the GOP’s amplifiers on these issues. (check out the 90%+ he's already getting from Republicans in nat'l polls; who woulda thunk he would have 90% of the GOP at all, let alone in late April). The downside to McCain’s tough tone, of course, is that it's very un-McCain. This isn’t the same guy we saw in 2000 or even in the GOP primaries until he began whacking Romney in Florida. Indeed, this tack can turn off folks (especially those coveted independents) as much as it might hurt Obama.
*** Obama’s re-launch: One story the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal all seem to agree on today: Obama’s recasting his stump speech as he talks more about the economy. Obama is trying to address an economic weakness the same way a professional basketball player approaches his craft -- by working on the weak parts of your game. Yet expect the Clinton campaign to jump on something in particular that was in the New York Times, the implication that Obama's "bored" with the primary. We can almost hear the Clinton hit on this now: "So, apparently, my opponent is bored debating the issues with me; he's bored, folks.” Now, the New York Times never quoted Obama as saying he was "bored"; it's a characterization based on interviews with aides. But the comment is one that can easily be used for some stump lines today. Yet let's take this "bored" sentiment a step further -- it's clearly a reflection of a candidate who seems to be struggling with what to say next and how to refine his pitch just enough to finish the job. The campaign seems to be shying away from the big rally approach. Here's our question: Why aren't they simply re-running their Iowa/New Hampshire strategy where he did a little of both, big rallies in small towns?
*** I challenge you to a duel: Clinton has not let a day go by without bringing up her debate challenge. What's been interesting is that Clinton keeps changing the offer; it started with simply accepting another media organized debate; then it shifted to Lincoln-Douglas-style debates (i.e. no moderator) and finally, yesterday, she offered to debate him on a flatbed truck. Maybe tomorrow she'll call for debates in the back of an astro-turf-lined El Camino. Still, the doggedness of the debate challenge may start to get under Obama's skin -- and given Wright's decision to not get out of the news -- maybe a debate will be what Obama wants in order to change the focus of the last week of this campaign.
*** Hillary Strangelove? Because of Jeremiah Wright remaining in the news, not that much attention has been paid to Clinton’s recent comments regarding Iran and the Middle East. But Sunday’s Boston Globe weighed in -- harshly. It dubbed her “Hillary Strangelove,” because of her umbrella Iran-Mideast ally retaliation policy. And the paper called that "Rambo rhetoric" that "plays into the hands of Iranian hard-liners who want to plow ahead with efforts to attain a nuclear weapons capability." More: “[T]here are some red lines that should never be crossed,” it said. “Clinton did so Tuesday morning, the day of the Pennsylvania primary, when she told ABC's ‘Good Morning America’ that, if she were president, she would ‘totally obliterate’ Iran if Iran attacked Israel. This foolish and dangerous threat was muted in domestic media coverage. But it reverberated in headlines around the world.”
*** What say you, superdelegates? By the end of June, Howard Dean says (and said again on Meet the Press) he wants superdelegates to come out to say which Democratic candidate they are backing. Just asking… After 15 months, do they really need more than two more months? For those keeping score at home, Clinton and Obama each picked up a superdelegate over the weekend. Clinton got the backing of New Hampshire add-on Kathy Sullivan, the state's former party chair. Obama picked up Charlene Fernandez (AZ), who filled a vacancy. Here’s where the counts stand: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 264-241 (290 still undecided); PLEDGED: Obama 1,491-1,334; OVERALL: Obama 1,732-1,598.
*** On the trail: Clinton spends her day in North Carolina, stumping in Graham, Salisbury, Concord, and finally with a rally in Charlotte; McCain is in Miami, where he holds a health-care roundtable; and Obama campaigns in North Carolina, hitting Wilmington, Wilson, and ending with a rally in Chapel Hill. Also, Bill and Chelsea Clinton are both in North Carolina.
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 8 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 15 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 22 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 190 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 267 days
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