First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** More Saturday Night Fever: The Senate is expected to take its vote to proceed on Senate Majority Leader Reid’s bill on Saturday. Democrats will need 60 votes -- i.e., their entire caucus -- to clear this initial procedural hurdle. Per NBC’s Ken Strickland, the vote is expected to take place around 8:00 pm ET. At this point, Strick adds, it doesn’t look like there will be any Senate work on Sunday, nor will there be any effort to make the Senate clerk read every page of the bill out loud, at least this week. If it plays out this way, the Senate would be off all of the next week for Thanksgiving recess and return on Nov. 30. Realistically, is more being made out of this drama than should be? Does it make political sense for any Democrat to prevent even debate on this bill even for Democrats who may eventually vote against it? To not allow debate would be a slap in the face of the Dem base and no Dem officeholder would do that, would they? We know that everything in DC and health care has to have the feel of some drama, but this feels like much ado about nothing. If Reid and the Obama White House can't even get the bill on to the floor, then there are much BIGGER problems in the Dem party than unity on health care. But if they do pass it, it is historic.
*** Land of Lincoln: That said, for the vote tomorrow, we’ve noted the moderates to watch: Ben Nelson (NE), Mary Landrieu (LA), and Blanche Lincoln (AR). But Lincoln is perhaps the most intriguing. Nelson and Landrieu have seemed to indicate their support at least for a cloture vote since their meeting with Reid two days ago. Remember, neither of them is up for re-election next year. But Lincoln is, and it’s been radio silence from her on her cloture vote. She’s really in a pressure cooker. Liberals are pushing for a primary challenge if she doesn’t support health care (something Republicans have to be salivating over) and the looks of a potentially competitive GENERAL election next year. Still, it would be a shock to see Lincoln kill this since she actually does have to worry about a primary challenge -- and she would have single-handedly have killed the prospects NOW for the health bill. By the way, Lincoln knows a little something about Dem primary challenges, she first got into Congress by challenging an incumbent member of her OWN party.
*** Welcome back, Mr. President: If President Obama turned on the nightly news at the White House after returning from his eight-day trip through Asia, he saw plenty of unwelcome news yesterday. Members of Congress were asking for Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner to resign from his job; students in California were protesting huge hikes in their tuition costs; in the morning, the nation’s aviation system nearly grinded to a halt after a router glitch; and women were confused about new mammogram guidelines -- the news of which Republicans seized on to throw a wrench into health-care reform. In short, it wasn’t a good day -- and hasn’t been really that good of a week -- for the White House. As for Geithner, it looks like he's becoming the whipping boy for frustrated members of Congress on the economy. Is this fair? Remember, this happened to John Snow, and then we got Hank Paulson.
*** Iran is key to watch: Regarding Obama’s trip to Asia, it looks like the C.W. is that he didn't get big things done. And he didn't. But the reality is that we won't know how successful this trip is for a little while. Near-term, it's about the push for sanctions against Iran. In fact, if the Obama administration gets Russia on board for tougher sanctions, and if China -- at a minimum -- decides to simply abstain and allow the U.S. to go forward with a tougher stance against Iran, then the C.W. on this trip and on the president's approach to foreign policy will shift back in his favor. While some want to pile on the president over Iran and say, "I told you so" regarding Iran walking away from the negotiating table, it's actually an opportunity for the president to show a stiff spine on a major national security issue. And if Russia does come aboard for truly tough sanctions, it would be an example of Obama's foreign policy doctrine of engagement and respect with quasi allies/rivals working. That's not bad domestic politics either.
*** What we learned at the RGA…: What did we learn at the Republican Governors Association meeting here that concluded last night? That Republicans feel VERY good about the overall political environment and their prospects for next year's midterm elections. That no one here really wanted to talk about Sarah Palin, her new book, or her political prospects. That RGA Chair Haley Barbour is personally backing Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the gubernatorial primary and wants Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison to stay in the Senate. And that embattled Mark Sanford could attend the meeting and (almost!) not be spotted by the political press corps.
*** … And what we didn’t: What did we NOT learn? If the current political winds will continue to stay at the GOP's back. If Palinism will end up trumping McDonnellism, or vice versa. If anyone in attendance -- Pawlenty, Jindal, Barbour, someone else? -- will end up being the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee. And if anyone else picked up on the irony of the RGA airing this "Saturday Night Live" skit to kick off its panel looking at the 2010 midterms.
*** White House pushes back against stimulus criticism: Following up on our note yesterday about the Obama White House losing the P.R. war over the stimulus, an administration official said he’s standing by the estimated number of "jobs created or saved" by the stimulus act, NBC’s Mike Viqueira reports. "The data debate has been frustrating, but it's a side show," said Ed Deserve, adviser to the president for Recovery Act Implementation, who took questions from reporters on a conference call. Deserve was following up on a hearing held yesterday on the House side, where the GAO reported on errors that were made in the administration's calculation that led to the claim that 640,000 jobs created as of Oct. 30 because of the stimulus. Deserve said the estimate is in line with those of outside economists, and repeated the claim that when both "direct, indirect, and induced" jobs were included, the number was 1 to 1.5 million jobs. Deserve’s comments came after Earl Devaney, the government watchdog overseeing the stimulus, said he couldn’t vouch for the administration’s 640,000 figure.
*** A 'profile' in irony? Sarah Palin showed she's not afraid of wading into racial politics. In a two-day stretch this week, she 1) criticized John McCain for not going after Obama harder on Jeremiah Wright and 2) advocated for profiling. "I say, profile away," Palin told the Weekly Standard, adding, "Such political correctness could be our downfall." Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen, hardly liberals, see it differently. Gates yesterday: “[I]n a nation as diverse as the United States the last thing we need to do is start pointing fingers at each other, particularly when there's no basis in fact for it." This is usually tricky terrain for politicians. But Palin has decided to bull through the issue. Yet advocacy for profiling -- which calls for drawing on broad stereotypes of whole groups of people -- is somewhat ironic coming from Palin. Consider her annoyance with her perception that Katie Couric was stereotyping her for asking her about which newspapers she reads. She told Oprah: "Are you kidding me? Are you really asking me?' To me, it was in the context of, ‘Do you read? How do you stay informed, you're way up there?' It seemed like she was discovering this nomadic tribe, a member of a tribe from some Neanderthal cave in Alaska, asking me, ‘How do you stay in touch with the real world?'" And then there's her criticism over the Newsweek cover, which plenty, including Democrats have criticized. But it seems she wants to be against political correctness unless it involves herself.
*** Also today: Vice President Joe Biden turns 67 years old. And an exhibit of the late Tim Russert's office opens at the Newseum in DC.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
CEDAR CREEK, Tex. -- At yesterday's public events at the Republican Governors Association’s annual meeting here just outside of Austin, there wasn’t anything resembling the boisterous Tea Party protests or those summer town halls. There weren't cries about President Obama's "radical" or "socialist" agenda. And there weren't any mentions of Sarah Palin (until a reporter brought her up at a press conference). Rather, the tone at this meeting to celebrate the GOP's gubernatorial wins earlier this month and to look ahead to 2010 was downright restrained and even conciliatory. Asked at the press conference how much national issues influenced his win in New Jersey, Gov.-elect Chris Christie answered, "New Jersey issues were the things that drove the race," while national ones were just "background music." Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell agreed, "We ran on Virginia issues" -- like jobs, transportation, and taxes.
*** GOP governors take the stage: Asked if they would work with the president, both men said yes -- especially on issues like charter schools, merit pay, and promoting fatherhood. "The problems in this country and the state of New Jersey are too big" not to find common ground, Christie said. And McDonnell stated that he hopes to work with Obama on issues where they agree, and to "disagree civilly" on issues where they don't. As for Palin, both men sidestepped questions why they didn't have the former Alaska governor campaign for them. Christie said he only had folks who were friends (like Giuliani) or who had won in a blue state (like Pawlenty and Romney) -- although Politico’s Martin reminds us that Bobby Jindal and Jeb Bush helped raise money for him. Meanwhile, McDonnell said his campaign had contacted Palin early in 2009, but her schedule was booked. And by the time she had resigned as governor, his campaign had already finalized all of its events. (Really?)
*** Still plenty of red meat: In short, both Christie and McDonnell sounded like the men who won their races (in part) by hugging the middle. To be sure, there was still plenty of red meat for conservatives at the conference. At a plenary session to discuss state-based solutions, Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- the host here who’s engaged in a primary battle against Kay Bailey Hutchison -- argued that “cap-and-trade will destroy the economy” and proudly raised the specter of the 10th Amendment to push back against that and health care. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal railed against Washington. “The DC model doesn’t work, but the Republican model does work.” And Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty called for lower spending, lower taxes, and fiscal restraint. More than anything, however, the RGA’s message was that the party was making a comeback. “These elections are a springboard for us,” RGA Chairman Haley Barbour told reporters, referring to the GOP wins in Jersey and Virginia.
*** Today's RGA agenda: And here will be a little more red meat today: The attending governors hold a press conference at noon ET to discuss the impact that the health-care legislation will have on their states. At 12:30 pm ET, there's a plenary session looking at next year's gubernatorial races. Speakers include Barbour, Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle, GOP pollster Ed Goeas, and the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy. At 2:00 pm ET, Barbour and Pawlenty hold a news conference on 2010. And finally, at 8:30 pm ET, the RGA meeting concludes with a "Comeback Bash."
*** Summing up the Asia trip: Meanwhile, far away from the events in Texas, President Obama is already on his way back from his eight-trip to Asia. He will arrive at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska around 9:40 am ET, and then return to the White House at 6:25 pm ET. Before leaving, Obama summed up his trip from South Korea: “Today, I'm finishing my first visit to Asia as president. In Tokyo, we renewed and deepened the US-Japan alliance. In Singapore, we worked with leaders from across the Asia Pacific to strengthen the global economic recovery. And in China, we worked to advance the partnership between our town countries on global issues, because cooperation between the United States and China will mean a safer more prosperous world for all of us… In Seoul, President Lee and I reaffirmed the enduring alliance between our countries, an alliance rooted in shared sacrifice, common values, mutual interest and mutual respect.”
*** And defending it: Senior White House adviser David Axelrod tried to answer critics who’ve argued that Obama didn’t accomplish much on the trip. Per NBC’s Athena Jones, Axelrod said the president had done what he set out to do -- lay a solid foundation for diplomacy and strengthen relationships. "We didn't come halfway across the world for tickertape parades," he told reporters. "We didn't have expectations that Barack Obama arrives in China or anywhere else and things change overnight.” Indeed, it is striking to us how everyone seems to be writing Obama’s history right now after he’s been in office for just 10 months. They’re making pronouncements about him -- on his foreign trips, on his economic policies, on health care -- that took many at least five or six years to make about his predecessor.
*** Losing the P.R. battle: While the final history on the stimulus hasn’t been written, it’s clear, as we’ve said before, that the White House is losing the P.R. war over it. The latest embarrassment was a GAO report noting that more than 50,000 jobs the White House said had been “created or saved” due to the stimulus came from projects that reported spending NO MONEY. A White House official responds to First Read. "Three months ago, the critics denied that the Recovery Act was making any jobs. Now as the evidence has proven that wrong, they are left to cast doubts about just how many jobs were made and where. Time is on our side: As late reports coming in, new data will shows the jobs total climbing, and the numbers getting more reliable. In the end, the data debate is frustrating, but a side show: the American people care a lot more about our success in creating jobs than our precision in counting them."
*** What’s next for Reid’s bill? On health care, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid received the score of his bill from the Congressional Budget Office. According to NBC’s Ken Strickland, the cost is $848 billion; it covers 94% of all Americans and an additional 31 million; and it reduces the deficit by $130 billion over the first 10 years. What’s next? Strickland says the timing on the big vote on the motion to proceed -- i.e., to get the bill on the floor with 60 votes -- could be as early as Friday but more likely on Saturday. And the prospect for 60 votes? Strick reports that Reid met with the three Dem holdouts yesterday: Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, and Mary Landrieu. Nelson released a non-committal statement, but it sounded like he COULD be a “yes.” Meanwhile, the DNC is launching its latest “Call’em out” campaign against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. “McConnell seems willing to use every trick in the book to delay a fair debate and vote on reform. Each day reform is postponed is another day for him to attack it with another distortion. It's a desperate gambit to confuse the American people, derail the effort in Congress, and block reform. Mitch McConnell, we're calling you out.”
*** Palin in the Hoosier State: Palin-palooza today moves to Indiana. She’ll be in largely GOP areas of the state -- Ft. Wayne (noon ET to 3:00 pm ET) and Noblesville (6:00 pm ET to 9:00 pm ET). Ft. Wayne is in Indiana's 3rd Congressional district, won by McCain, 56%-43%, and by GOP Rep. Mark Souder, 55%-40%. Noblesville is in IN-5. McCain won it, 59%-40, and GOP Rep. Dan Burton won it, 66%-35%. After the first stop on her "Going Rogue" book tour yesterday in Michigan, a state she promised to return to after the McCain campaign pulled out, Palin has returned to Twitter, under the handle @SarahPalinUSA, NBC’s Adam Verdugo reports. Her first tweet: “Michigan-thx 4 Going Rogue! Perfect tour kickoff w/Kid Rock tune praising Northern MI humming in backgrnd @ Barnes/Noble. Above expectations.”
*** Also in DC today: Beginning at 10:00 am ET, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee holds a congressional hearing on the massacre at Fort Hood. Also at 10:00 am ET, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner testifies before the Joint Economic Committee about the country's economic recovery.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Still weeks away? In an interview with one of us from Beijing, President Obama said he was possibly still weeks away from making an announcement on Afghanistan. “I will announce my decision over the next several weeks… I'm confident that at the end of this process we will be able to present to the American people in very clear terms what exactly is at stake what we intend to do, how we're going to succeed, how much it's going to cost, how long it's going to take. And I think that's what owed the American people, because frankly over the last several years that's not what they've gotten.” He also said that reducing the number of troops in the short term is NOT an option. “Part of … the task here is making sure that Afghanistan is sufficiently stable so that we can make that hand off. So my goal is … creating a situation in which our footprint is smaller and Afghan security forces can do the job of keeping their country together.” Will his decision end the war? He replied, “This decision will put us on a path towards ending the war.”
*** On Khalid Sheikh Mohammed: The president gave a tough response about Khalid Sheikh Mohammed when he was asked why some might be offended that a terrorist gets the same legal protections than an American citizen gets. “I don't think it will be offensive at all when he's convicted and when the death penalty is applied to him.” When pressed whether he was already prejudging the verdict, Obama replied, “What I said was people will not be offended if that's the outcome. I'm not pre-judging; I'm not going to be in that courtroom. That's the job of prosecutors, the judge, and the jury. What I'm absolutely clear about is that I have complete confidence in the American people and our legal traditions and the prosecutors, the tough prosecutors from New York who specialize in terrorism.” (At 11:15 am ET, Rudy Giuliani holds a conference call, sponsored by the RNC, to once again criticize the administration decision to try KSM and others in federal court.)
Video:
President Obama talks about his decision on a new Afghanistan strategy, the planned trial of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and a growing list of missed White House deadlines.
*** On health care, the jobs summit, and his weight: Also in the interview, Obama said he expected to sign a health-care bill into law before the State of the Union next year. But when asked if that signing would happen this year, he answered, “You will not hear that from me.” When asked how next month’s job summit will create jobs, he replied, “The goal of the jobs summit is to figure out -- are they ways of us accelerating that hiring? And there are a whole range of ideas out there… One of the benefits of convening this group is it gives us chance to talk directly to small businesses, medium-size businesses, the main drivers of employment.” And he laughed off speculation about any apparent weight loss, but said the burden of the office weighs on him. “My weight fluctuates about five pounds; it has for the last 30 years. It's unchanging. I still wear the same stuff when I got married 17 years ago.” He added, “Everyday I wake up thinking how can I give those folks who are out of work right now a job; how can I make sure that people who don't have health care get health care; how can I make sure that I'm doing right by those young men and women who are in Afghanistan. And I would be lying if I said that those aren't weighted questions that I carry around on my shoulders every day.”
*** A tough weekend for the White House? Both the New York Times and Washington Post have critical takes of what Obama has been able to accomplish in China (so far), which could lead to some tough post-mortems this weekend. Here's the Times: "In six hours of meetings, at two dinners and during a stilted 30-minute news conference in which President Hu Jintao did not allow questions, President Obama was confronted, on his first visit, with a fast-rising China more willing to say no to the United States." And here's the Post: "President Obama has emerged from his first trip to China with no big breakthroughs on important issues, such as Iran's nuclear program or China's currency." Obama has arrived on the last leg of his Asia trip -- South Korea.
*** CBO numbers finally come out today? Speaking of health care, the latest guidance from a key Senate leadership aide is they expect to get the Congressional Budget Office numbers today on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's health-care bill, NBC’s Ken Strickland notes. The source wouldn't call it definitive but said, "Expect them to come out [today]." Also, as has been reported, Sen. Robert Byrd (D) today becomes the longest-serving member of Congress -- ever. Strickland says that Sens. Reid, Mitch McConnell, and Jay Rockefeller will speak about the milestone later this morning.
*** My, how things change: When GOP governors huddled at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting a year ago in Miami, the party had just suffered another thumping at the polls, Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP. But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest today just outside of Austin, TX, things have certainly changed. Republicans are now celebrating their wins earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia; Palin is no longer in office and is instead selling her controversial memoir; Pawlenty has become a frequent Obama critic and is emphasizing his conservative views; and Charlie Crist (who won't be in attendance) has gone from possible GOP hope to a conservative target in his race for the Senate next year.
*** What to watch: Indeed, at least four stories will be on display here at the RGA meeting, which concludes on Thursday night. One, is the GOP poised for a political comeback? Two, looking ahead to 2012, who are the party's potential presidential possibilities? (Pawlenty, Jindal, RGA Chair Haley Barbour, and Mitch Daniels will be in attendance.) Three, who are their top gubernatorial candidates for the 2010 midterms? (Ohio's John Kasich, Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, and Florida's Bill McCollum will be here.) And four, is there really an ideological split inside the party? (While Palin is selling her book today in Michigan, the RGA will be feting two Republicans who won, in part, by hugging the middle -- Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell.)
*** Then vs. now: It's also worth noting how the GOP rhetoric has changed from last year to this year. Here was Pawlenty a year ago in Miami: "People mostly want to follow positive leaders; they don't want to follow cranks." Here was Jindal: "We can't just be the party of 'No.'" Here was even Palin: "We are the minority party, but let us resolve not to become the negative party." Ironically, becoming the party of "No" has paid dividends -- so far -- for the GOP a year after Obama's historic win. The question to ponder is whether that's a sustainable long-term message for the party.
*** Today's RGA agenda: The public events kick off at 5:30 pm ET with a plenary session entitled "State-Based Solutions." It features Pawlenty, Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Kasich, Corbett, Christie, and McDonnell. Then, at 7:00 pm ET, there's a press briefing to discuss the 2009 campaigns. Speakers include RGA Chairman Barbour, McDonnell, Christie, RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers, and GOP pollsters Glen Bolger and Jon Lerner. Finally, at 8:35 pm ET, Perry, Jindal, McDonnell, and Christie speak at a "Victory Barbeque."
*** Palin as Douglas MacArthur -- I shall return: As previously mentioned, Palin-palooza (Day 7, by our count) moves to Grand Rapids, MI, where Palin begins her battleground state book tour. The event takes place from 6:00 pm ET to 9:00 pm ET. Remember that Michigan is the state the McCain camp withdrew from the day of Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. Afterward, Palin went, well, rogue and openly questioned the move. “I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try," she said. Recently, in a posting she made on her Facebook page announcing her book tour dates, Palin quipped, “Last year, I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I’m keeping that promise.” By the way, Grand Rapids is in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, which McCain narrowly won in the 2008 Election. It’s represented by a Republican in Congress, who won the seat in '08, 61%-35%.
*** The scene in Grand Rapids: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, who’s on the ground in Grand Rapids, says that 1,500 people camped out in the mall there for an opportunity to see Palin later tonight. Mitchell adds that the people are hard-core supporters, who call her a “maverick” and think she can be president. They’re also angry about the recent Newsweek cover, saying that it’s sexist and inappropriate for a former VP nominee.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A productive day: President Obama today finished up his most important and productive day of his trip. A day-long summit with the Chinese led to some new concessions from both countries on climate issues (“We are creating a joint clean energy research center, and have achieved agreements on energy efficiency, renewable energy, cleaner uses of coal, electric vehicles, and shale gas,” Obama said), on the economy and America’s $800 billion debt to the Chinese in financing the stimulus (“China's partnership has proved critical in our effort to pull ourselves out of the worst recession in generations,” Obama added), and on North Korea (“The two sides will work with other parties concerned to continue the denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula,” Hu said). But splits remained on human rights (yet simply getting the Chinese president to acknowledge U.S. concerns was seen by the White House as a big step) and potentially on Iran. President Obama remains in China and leaves tomorrow for South Korea.
*** A quick programming note: Chuck, who has been covering Obama on his Asia trip, sits down with the president for an interview tomorrow. Be sure to watch TODAY, Nightly News and MSNBC, as well as click on to First Read, to see what Obama has to say about his trip and also what’s been happening in the U.S. while he’s been away.
*** Showdown with Iran? On the topic of Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency has “voiced strong suspicions in a report on Monday that the country was concealing other atomic facilities,” the New York Times front-pages. And Jeffrey Bader, the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security who’s traveling with the president, came awfully close to admitting the Iranians would probably reject the current deal on the table, paving the way for a showdown at the UN over sanctions. “The president did talk to President Hu about the possibility -- indeed, at this point, when -- well, let's say -- I won't characterize -- let's just say the possibility that we will not reach resolution of this issue and we may have to go to track two and greater pressure. I would not say that we got an answer today from the Chinese, nor did we expect one on the subject. I'm confident that whatever direction we choose to go -- we need to go towards the end of the year, that the Chinese will remain part of the unified P5-plus-1 front."
*** Battle over the judiciary: Today, the full Senate is expected to take up David Hamilton’s nomination to serve on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. GOP Sen. Jeff Sessions, the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has threatened to filibuster Hamilton’s nomination and other Republicans are opposing it as well -- which has surprised the White House, given Hamilton’s easy confirmation as federal district judge and the fact that he’s endorsed by his home state GOP senator, Dick Lugar. The Hamilton vote comes as liberals say they’re disappointed at the Obama administration’s pace of nominating judges. The New York Times editorial page writes, “President Bush … made his nominations quickly and pushed hard to have them confirmed. By the end of his first year, according to a report by the liberal group Alliance for Justice, he had nominated 65 federal judges and 28 were confirmed.” But: “Mr. Obama has moved slowly. As of Nov. 4, he had nominated just 26 appellate and district court judges, and only four of them had been confirmed.”
*** Palin-palooza, Day Six (by our count): Today, Palin’s book, “Going Rogue,” officially hits bookstores… In an interview with ABC, Palin criticized Obama’s presidency, praised the Tea Party protests, and didn't rule out a 2012 bid. "My ambition if you will, my desire, is to help our country in whatever role that may be, and I cannot predict what that will be, what doors would be open in the year 2012."… On her Facebook page, she calls the Newsweek cover photo of her (which had previously appeared in Runner’s World) “unfortunate” and “sexist”… Per NBC’s Adam Verdugo, Palin’s SarahPAC has sent out an e-mail to supporters late Monday night offering to send a signed copy of her memoir to anyone who donates $100 or more (the Republican Governors Association also is raising money this way from Palin’s book)… And in that SarahPAC email, Palin says that Ronald Reagan “entered office during an economic recession even worse than our current one, but he left office after overseeing the largest peacetime economic expansion in American history.” (Economists and Bill Clinton would probably take issue with both claims.)
*** Would Reagan have passed today’s conservative litmus test? Evan Thomas’ piece on Palin in the latest issue of Newsweek raises this provocative question, especially for conservatives who are targeting Charlie Crist in Florida, Bob Bennett in Utah, and even Lindsey Graham in South Carolina: Would Ronald Reagan -- just looking at his record as president -- be a target for conservatives today? After all, he raised taxes; his policies increased the size of the deficit; he reached out, through diplomatic channels, to Russia to end the Cold War; he had a pragmatist like James Baker serve as his chief of staff; and he picked the moderate George H.W. Bush as his running mate.
*** “It’s a good time to be in Beijing”: By the way, when one of us asked ex-Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican serving as Obama’s ambassador to China, about the current ideological fight in the GOP, he answered, "It's a good time to be in Beijing." He seemed genuinely bemused by Palin-palooza, and said every time he gets sucked into paying a tiny bit of attention, he throws himself back into work on China issues. Do remember that Huntsman, a moderate who at one time was seen as a possible 2012 GOP candidate, saw a local Michigan GOP chapter cancel an event with Huntsman due to his centrist views (like his support for civil unions).
*** Cheney stumps for KBH: Former Vice President Dick Cheney will officially endorse Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in her gubernatorial primary bid against incumbent Gov. Rick Perry (R). The event takes place in Houston at 5:00 pm ET, and it comes after Hutchison announced that she would remain in the Senate through the primary. Previously, the understanding was that Hutchison would resign her Senate seat this November to concentrate on the race full time.
*** More 2010 watch: In his column in CongressDaily, Charlie Cook writes that Republicans are poised to pick up House seats this cycle. But he notes that three factors could keep the GOP gains well below the level they need to take back Congress: 1) the Republican Party’s poor brand; 2) it’s ideological civil war; and 3) the lack of Democratic retirements (as of now). “Keep in mind that 40 percent of the 52 House seats Democrats lost in 1994 were open. As it stands, there seems to be little chance that 30 to 35 or more Democratic incumbents will lose next year.” Cook concludes, “Democrats certainly have the most challenges, but there are enough potentially offsetting factors that this might not be the Category 4 or 5 hurricane Republicans fervently hope for.”
*** And now … your moment of Zen: Finally today, Vice President Biden tapes an appearance for Comedy Central’s “Daily Show.”
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Due to technical difficulties (a.k.a. a Washington Bureau power outage... as you'll read below), we were delayed in getting First Read out this morning. Thanks to our readers for your patience. Everything's not quite up to speed here (as of 12:50 p.m. ET). But we'll be doing our best to keep you updated on all your political news.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The lights go out in China (and in D.C.!): In a test of how much freedom the Chinese actually have, President Obama held a town hall earlier today in Shanghai. And it’s quite possible that more Americans -- in the middle of the night -- saw the town hall than Chinese did in the middle of their day. The reason: State Chinese TV aired only edited clips of the president’s town hall. That, however, didn’t stop Obama from (subtly) denouncing censorship. “I have a lot of critics in the United States who can say all kinds of things about me,” he said at the town hall. “I actually think that makes our democracy stronger, and it makes me a better leader.” Yet just as one of us was reporting on TODAY about censorship in China, the lights went out in our Washington bureau, causing our morning First Read note to come out a little later than usual this morning. It’s just a coincidence our power went out at that very time, we think… Obama today already has traveled from Shanghai to Beijing, where President Hu greeted him. Later tonight (Eastern time), Obama and Hu hold a bilateral and make statements to the press.
*** The emerging framework on Afghanistan? Also during his town hall, Obama mentioned -- definitively -- that al Qaeda was no longer in Afghanistan, but instead is in Pakistan. In addition, he said the United States’ job in Afghanistan is to “stabilize” the country. When you combine that with Hillary Clinton’s statement on “Meet the Press” (“We're going to expect more from the Afghan government going forward, and we've got some very specific asks that we will be making"), you get an idea of the administration’s framework on Afghanistan. They want to have a trigger that enables them to pull out on the Afghan government, if it doesn’t meet certain conditions.
*** Gitmo politics: First came the conservative furor at the Obama administration’s decision late last week to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and others in federal court in New York. Now comes their reaction to the news that some Gitmo detainees might be housed at the Thomson Correctional Facility in Illinois, which Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and Sen. Dick Durbin (D) are expected to announce at 2:00 pm ET. Per NBC’s Edgar Zuniga Jr., Illinois GOP Reps. Donald Manzullo, Mark Kirk, and Peter Roskam will hold a press conference at 11:30 am ET to oppose any such transfer (despite all the other murderers, rapists, and child molesters who already populate the state’s prisons...).
*** Deadline Fatigue? Speaking of Gitmo, White House adviser David Axelrod suggested on CNN yesterday that the U.S. might not meet the deadline to close that prison facility. “We believe we are going to substantially meet the deadline. We may not hit it on the date, but we will close Guantanamo. And we are making good progress toward doing that.” Just think of the other deadlines that the Obama administration has now missed -- on health care and Afghanistan. Missing these deadlines, separately, is understandable. But they are accumulating, and that can lead to a trend.
*** Palin-tology: Even with the president in China, with the Gitmo news, with Afghanistan, with the state of the U.S. economy, and with one of the biggest legislative fights in memory (over health care), the story that's been mesmerizing the political world over the past few days is ... Sarah Palin. This is a testament to her political strength (the buzz and curiosity that surround her) and her political weakness (that she remains a deeply polarizing figure, even within her own party). Indeed, in last month's NBC/WSJ poll, 52% of Republicans had a positive opinion about Palin, compared with 28% of independents and 9% of Democrats who said that. As GOP political consultant Mike Murphy, who isn’t a Palin fan, told First Read: “She is polarizing within the GOP and totally unpopular outside the party. And that is not a recipe to get into the White House.” Palin’s interview with Oprah airs today. Her book officially hits the stores tomorrow. And she begins her book tour on Wednesday.
*** Like sands through an hourglass…: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that John McCain has specifically asked his former aides not to do interviews rebutting Palin's charges in her book -- to avoid escalating the feud between her and the campaign staff. Most are complying with his wishes, hoping it will die down. But in a conversation with Mitchell last night, one key player targeted by Palin in the book points to emails on Huffington Post that contradict Palin's version of several instances. The former McCain campaign aide, who asked not to be named, told Mitchell: "It is unrecognizable at every instance. There is not one truthful account as it relates to any conversation I ever had with her." Regarding the accusation that the campaign tried to hire a nutritionist to make her eat, two former aides said that the campaign was getting media calls and calls from higher-ups on the plane that Palin wasn't eating enough and had lost too much weight. There was concern about her health and stamina heading into the vice presidential debate.
*** The Young and The Restless: In addition, former McCain (and Bush White House aide) Nicolle Wallace tells Mitchell that the conversations Palin recounts in her book involving the Katie Couric interview, Palin's campaign wardrobe, or any of the other allegations involving Wallace never happened. "I never saw her take a note and she never contacted me for any fact-checking, nor did anyone on her behalf." Wallace says, "It's just fabricated." She adds that the same campaign staff whom Palin disparages in her book as idiots prepared Palin for a hugely successful convention speech and initial rollout, a good initial interview with Charlie Gibson, and a passable debate performance.
*** Taking on the Stupak Amendment: Turning to health care, the debate over abortion continues. At 10:15 am ET, the Center for Reproductive Rights will hold a press conference at the National Press Club to unveil a TV ad criticizing the anti-abortion Stupak amendment that was added to the House health-care bill.
*** Get out of my dreams … and into my car: Finally, Republicans are pouncing on this news today: While saying it’s making progress, GM reported losing $1.2 billion in the 3rd Q. “Today’s release of General Motors’ financial results is further proof that President Obama’s economic experiments are wrong for America,” RNC Chairman Michael Steele said in a statement. “Sadly, GM has not only failed to turn a profit since the president poured $50 billion of the taxpayers’ dollars into GM’s bankruptcy restructuring, but it has actually lost $1.2 billion.” That said, GM “will accelerate its repayment of bailout funds to the U.S. government, the automaker announced on Monday morning,” The Hill writes. “The company will pay back its outstanding $6.7 billion in debt to the government in quarterly installments, allowing it to finish repaying its loans four years earlier than had been required.”
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Here comes Sarah Palin: It took advanced excerpts of her upcoming interview with Oprah, plus the AP and now Drudge getting their hands on her new book, to move Palin-palooza from next week’s story to today’s. According to the AP, Palin criticizes CBS’ Katie Couric over the infamous Couric-Palin interview; she takes issue with ABC’s Charlie Gibson; and she settles old scores with the McCain campaign. Yet the last thing the Republican Party needs right now is a look back at the tumult and drama of 2008. Just when the party is enjoying its first good news in five years, here comes Sarah Palin. The next week is going to be about her and how she views the world. And it's not the image some in the Republican Party would like to broadcast, especially now when it appears they have an opportunity to slowly win back the trust of swing voters. At a minimum, Palin is a distraction for the GOP as it attempts to build on Election 2009 success. Worst case, she sets back efforts the party is making to appeal to swing voters again.
*** And here comes Khalid Sheikh Mohammed: At 11:00 am ET at the Justice Department, Attorney General Eric Holder will announce that accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and four other 9/11 detainees now in Guantanamo Bay will be brought to the U.S. to stand trial in federal court in New York, NBC’s Pete Williams reports. None of the detainees covered by today's announcement can be brought to the U.S. for at least 45 days. (A recently passed federal law requires the administration to give Congress at least that much notice before bringing any GITMO detainees to the US for trial.) Williams adds that Holder faced a court-imposed deadline of next Monday to decide what to do with these five detainees and four others, all of whom had already been charged and scheduled for trial before military commissions at GITMO.
*** Obama’s day in Japan: Meanwhile, in his joint press conference with the Japanese Prime Minister, President Obama said he didn't want to "preempt" Holder’s announcement later today on the trial of KSM, but said he was "absolutely convinced Khalid Sheikh Mohammed will be subject to the most exacting demands of justice," per NBC’s Scott Foster. The president added, "The American people insist on it, and my administration insists on it.” Obama also was asked about his Afghanistan strategy decision, and he explained the timing is "not a measure of data or information missing," but instead on making sure a coordinate and effective strategy is in place. Obama said he recognizes there are critics of his deliberation, but he argued "they tend not to be folks who I think are directly involved in what's happening in Afghanistan." He said the decision would be made "soon" in a transparent way that leaves the Afghan people "to be in a position to provide their own security." Obama has already ended his day in Japan. Later tonight (Eastern Time in the U.S.), Obama meets with U.S. embassy personnel, meets the emperor and empress at the Imperial Palace, and has lunch with them.
*** Craig out, Bauer in: As it turns out, the White House official who had been responsible for the administration’s GITMO policies is now leaving. As NBC first reported last night, the long-rumored departure of White House Counsel Greg Craig has become official today with a statement from President Obama. Craig will be replaced by veteran Democratic Party campaign attorney Bob Bauer. This is the highest-level departure in the Obama White House this year. In 2008, Bauer served as lead counsel for Obama's campaign, and he is married to outgoing White House communications director Anita Dunn. Among the reasons for Dunn's decision to leave was so that both of them weren't working in the administration at the same time for their own family situation. Craig had a rocky tenure, beginning with the politically charged decision to shut down GITMO. It is not yet known when this change will become official, but it’s likely to occur before the end of the year.
*** Ouch: It’s not quite as devastating as the ’07 oppo-research hit on John Edwards’ $400 haircut (which the Obama camp uncovered, per David Plouffe’s new book). But it’s pretty close: Politico reports that the Republican National Committee’s insurance plan covers elective abortions. “Federal Election Commission Records show the RNC purchases its insurance from Cigna. Two sales agents for the company said that the RNC’s policy covers elective abortion.” Late last night, the RNC sent out a statement saying that Chairman Michael Steele had instructed the party’s director of administration to opt out of any coverage for elective abortions. "Money from our loyal donors should not be used for this purpose,” Steele said. “I don't know why this policy existed in the past, but it will not exist under my administration. Consider this issue settled."
*** Ouch, Part II: While the RNC had to deal with that abortion hit, the Obama White House and Democrats had to deal with their own bad news yesterday. “The US government deficit hit a record for October as the new budget year began where the old one ended: with the government awash in red ink,” the AP reported. “The Treasury Department said yesterday that the deficit for October totaled $176.4 billion, the fifth-largest monthly deficit ever and the 13th straight month to show a deficit - another record.”
*** Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Yesterday, before departing for Alaska and then Tokyo, President Obama announced that he would be convening a jobs summit next month at the White House. “We all know that there are limits to what government can and should do, even during such difficult times,” he said. “But we have an obligation to consider every additional, responsible step that we can [take] to encourage and accelerate job creation in this country. And that's why, in December, we'll be holding a forum at the White House on jobs and economic growth. We'll gather CEOs and small business owners, economists and financial experts, as well as representatives from labor unions and nonprofit groups, to talk about how we can work together to create jobs and get this economy moving again.” Clearly, there’s a concern that the president isn’t focused enough on the jobs issue.
*** Sanford vs. Graham: Politico has this interesting nugget: Some South Carolina Republicans say they prefer Mark Sanford -- even with all his woes and warts -- to Lindsey Graham. “County Republican Party Chairman Phillip Bowers agreed that among South Carolina Republicans, Graham has less fans than Sanford—despite the fact that the governor faces the threat of impeachment. ‘Most people are still on board with Mark Sanford. From a fiscal standpoint, Mark is still in the game,’ Bowers said. ‘There is a lot of frustration with Lindsey right now.’” More: "One high ranking state Republican official said despite Sanford’s personal indiscretions, activists continue to view him as ideologically in sync with the party. 'They still understand what Mark Sanford is about, they are just disappointed by the girl,' the official said. 'Lindsey just continues to anger the base. He could calm them down, but Lindsey doesn’t have the patience or lack of ego to make the effort.'"
*** And if it’s Sunday…: “Meet the Press” this Sunday has Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, plus a discussion on education with Education Secretary Arne Duncan, Newt Gingrich, and Al Sharpton.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Around the world in 8 days: Later this afternoon, President Obama departs on his latest big overseas trip -- a whirlwind eight-day, four-country journey that will take him to Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. His previous trips (to Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East) helped bolster his domestic image. But that wasn’t necessarily the case back in July (when he traveled to Russia and Italy) or last month (with his unsuccessful Olympics push in Copenhagen). The reason: Those trips came post-honeymoon and in the midst of the health-care debate and further concerns about the U.S. economy. While everyone focuses on Obama’s rough August, White House folks will privately tell you that the president’s poll numbers started coming down to earth in July right after that jaunt to Russia (in fact, our July NBC/WSJ poll showed his approval at 53%, down three points from June). This is maybe one reason why Obama’s Asia schedule is so jam-packed; you can really tell the White House wants him to get back ASAP.
*** Want to get away? Then again, maybe it’s not the worst thing that Obama is going to be thousands of miles and more than a dozen time zones away over the next week. First, the health-care debate in the Senate (over the public option and abortion) is going to be incredibly messy, as the sausage-making process always is. While the president effectively parachuted in over the weekend to help pass the House bill, note that involvement came at the end of the process -- not the middle, where the Senate currently is. Second, next week will be Palin-palooza, with her Oprah interview on Monday, her book going on sale Tuesday, and the book tour starting Wednesday. As we’ve pointed out before, Palin’s publicists picked a pretty good time for her book rollout. She’s going to have the political stage mostly to herself next week.
*** No rest for the weary: The president’s eight-day trip to Asia is going to be exhausting. Air Force One takes off at 9:50 am ET (but before then, Obama will deliver brief remarks on the economy at 9:15 am, in which he’ll announce hosting a jobs summit next month at the White House). He will then land at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, where he’ll meet with servicemembers and make remarks around 5:30 pm ET. Then it’s off to Japan, where he arrives around 2:00 am ET. He then spends the next six days in Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. Given how exhausting this trip will be -- for the president, his staff, and the members of the White House press corps -- it’s worth reminding everyone that Obama and many of his top aides have been working virtually non-stop over the past three years. When you add dealing with two wars, fixing an economy and trying to revamp the nation’s health-care system, you see how these guys could use a break. The Washington Post’s Joel Achenbach today touches on how the war in Afghanistan, in particular, has taken a toll on Obama. And as the exhaustion takes a toll on staff, how much of it is due to running into political problems which, in turn, saps whatever adrenaline they once had?
*** Calling Karzai’s bluff? On the subject of Afghanistan, NBC’s Mike Viqueira confirms that Obama is pushing for revisions to the plans presented that would clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government; he raised questions yesterday that could affect total number of troops that are sent to Afghanistan and the timeline for their presence in the war zone; his concerns center on the credibility of the Afghan government; and he wants to make clear that the U.S. commitment isn’t open-ended. To us, this seems like an attempt to call Karzai's bluff. The White House’s very public telegraph that we might not send troops -- or that we could leave A LOT sooner than Karzai thinks -- could be about squeezing him.
*** The Battleground book tour: Regarding Palin’s aforementioned book tour next week, it will take her to 13 cities -- 11 of which just happen to be in presidential battleground states (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida). What's more, nine of the 13 stops are in congressional districts won by McCain -- so she's reaching out to the GOP base. Palin starts her tour in Michigan, a battleground state the McCain campaign withdrew from the day of Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. The next day, Palin went -- you guessed it -- rogue and openly questioned the move. “I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try," she said back then. In a recent posting she made on her Facebook page announcing her book tour dates, Palin quipped: “Last year, I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I’m keeping that promise.” Also, per NBC’s Norah O’Donnell, Palin already has taped her appearance on Oprah. "There's nothing we didn't talk about," Oprah reported last night in a video linked to her Twitter. "Lots of her supporters didn't think she should come here." Oprah said they talked about Palin's daughter Bristol's pregnancy, Levi Johnston, Palin's infant son Trigg, and the state of Palin's marriage.
*** The GOP's purity tests? We understand why some conservatives are pillorying Charlie Crist and Olympia Snowe. After all, these two Republicans have not only worked with the Obama and the Democrats, they have a history of sometimes bucking their party. But many might not understand how Newt Gingrich (during NY-23), Sen. Bob Bennett (who's receiving a primary challenge from the right in Utah), and now Sen. Lindsey Graham have become targets. On Monday, the executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party voted unanimously to rebuke Graham “for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a ‘cap and trade’ energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens.” Ironically, just two years ago, the GOP's presidential front-runners were hardly pure conservatives -- John McCain favored liberalized immigration and opposed Bush's tax cuts, Mitt Romney had once supported abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research, and Rudy Giuliani backed gay rights and even moved in with a gay couple (and their pet Shih Tzu) after the breakup of his second marriage. Of course, some Republicans would argue that their lack of purity is the reason why they lost in 2008.
*** Bush back in the spotlight: Speaking of 2008… Former President George W. Bush will deliver his highest-profile speech since leaving office when he outlines his vision for his Bush Institute, which will be housed in the George W. Bush Presidential Center at Southern Methodist University. The event takes place in Dallas beginning at 3:00 pm ET.
*** Pushing back on Gallup: Yesterday, we mentioned a Gallup poll showing Republicans with a four-point advantage in the generic ballot. A Democratic pollster emails First Read that the party ID in the poll is a bit “whacky,” with Dems enjoying only a two-point party ID edge when you count leaners. Most national phone surveys, we’re reminded, have Democrats with a double-digit party ID lead. “In short, something doesn't seem quite right in the Gallup data,” the Dem pollster says. “I will grant that independents seem to be leaning toward the GOP on the generic ballot right now... But there is simply no way that Republicans and Democrats are essentially tied on party ID, and I think this calls their overall ballot numbers very much into question.”
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 26 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama’s four options: On this Veterans Day, at 2:30 pm ET, President Obama meets with his national security team for the eighth and possibly final time to discuss what to do in Afghanistan. Obama received two new options yesterday, in addition to the other two that had been debated for some time, and all of them increase the number of troops there. On the low end, one option (supported by Vice President Biden) sends an additional 10,000 to 15,000. On the high end is a proposal for the 40,000 to 44,000 troops that Gen. McChrystal has requested. As NBC's Savannah Guthrie first reported last night, Defense Secretary Gates supports a middle option of sorts that gives McChrystal nearly all he wants -- but not quite. And today’s New York Times adds that Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen and Secretary of State Clinton also back that middle proposal.
Video:
President Obama meets with his war team amid reports he's made a decision to add tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan, reports the White house denies.
*** The clock is ticking: Obama’s decision is likely to come at the end of Thanksgiving week or the week after. But the calendar is a real factor here: If the president orders all the troops McChrystal wants, it still will take more than a year to get them in to the country. But McChrystal said in his report that “failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) … risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.” Bottom line: The president doesn't like his options; it's why he keeps asking for more plans from his military advisers. Notice that in his Fort Hood speech yesterday, he was careful to link Pakistan and Afghanistan together. Obama believes the focus of the war effort in Afghanistan should be regional and tactical and about al Qaeda and other extremists. By constantly linking Afghanistan and Pakistan together, the administration is sending the message it is NOT in the business of nation-building. And now the key players in the White House are even more skeptical of their partner in Afghanistan (read: Karzai). One gets the sense if the president would love to figure out a way to use this moment to fundamentally change the perception of what America is doing in the region.
*** The speech at Fort Hood: As for Obama’s remarks yesterday at Fort Hood, it could very well be a speech that’s going to be remembered and quoted for some time. It struck the right balance of commander-in-chief and consoler-in-chief, which isn’t easy. And it's always a greater challenge for a president who did not wear the uniform to honor those who have. The president also seemed to touch on the Muslim issue without dwelling on it. Again, it was a difficult balance -- but one that was necessary in this current climate. Meanwhile, the real headaches for the administration are beginning to come into focus as various government entities begin the CYA process. Today alone, there seems to be a fair share of finger-pointing over who knew what about Hasan's contacts with a radical cleric. These stories all have the potential to become political land mines. Because of that don't be surprised if, in short order, we see some blue-ribbon panel/investigation body or something get convened.
*** The Race for 60: On health care, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday that he plans to bring his bill to the floor next week. But that will be the easy part. As a top Democrat in the Senate told NBC’s David Gregory, "Everyone in the caucus realizes that we have to pass a bill, but no one can quite figure out the path [to 60]." The two more contentious matters: the public option and abortion. That said, Bill Clinton’s Capitol Hill visit must have paid dividends after Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said this, per the Washington Post: Nelson, “the only Democrat who has yet to support bringing a bill to the Senate floor, noted that Clinton appealed to lawmakers not to expect their ideological ideal. ‘He said you need to pass the best bill that you can,’ Nelson said. ‘Getting the best bill is not only good for the people, it's good politics -- and it's that simple.’”
*** Two strategies for Reid: Here's something to ponder: What's the better strategy for Reid -- calling the bluff of Nelson/Lincoln/Lieberman/Snowe and seeing how intent they are in filibustering (so Reid can placate those on the left), or avoiding that PUBLIC moment and negotiating behind the scenes to a point that gets those centrists on board? There's a divide among some, but don't be surprised if Reid goes the public route (as it's the best way to show the left that he did everything he could do), then goes back to the trigger to move it out of the Senate. What's Reid got to lose doing that? Who knows, maybe Nelson/Lieberman/Lincoln/Snowe come aboard earlier than expected…
*** Tied in Ohio: Was there a Republican honeymoon post-Election Day '09? Perhaps. Back in September, a Quinnipiac poll had Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) with a 10-point lead over likely challenger John Kasich (R), 46%-36%. Well, a new Quinnipiac survey now has Strickland and Kasich tied at 40% each. What’s more, the poll has Strickland’s approval at 45%, his lowest score ever in this survey. As we’ve said before, this isn’t a good time to be an incumbent governor. Looking ahead to next year’s midterms -- and also the 2012 presidential race -- one thing to watch will be to see how Democratic Govs. Strickland (in Ohio), Ritter (in Colorado), and Culver (in Iowa) all fare next year. All three states, remember, are red ones that Obama carried last year.
*** Helping the GOP’s recruiting pitch: In addition, Republicans today are likely to seize on a new Gallup poll showing them with a four-point edge on the 2010 generic ballot test. Our NBC/WSJ poll last month had Dems with an eight-point advantage. The Quinnipiac and Gallup surveys couldn't have come at a better time for the GOP, as they put the final sale on prospective candidates for the House, in particular. There are many House GOP leaders who would truly like to make a run at the majority in 2010, but they need more quality candidates in more races. A poll like this is a boost to their sales pitch.
*** Tracking the stimulus: Don’t miss MSNBC.com’s brand-new application tracking the stimulus.
*** Obama on Veterans Day: In addition to his meeting on Afghanistan, President Obama and the first lady host a Veterans Day breakfast at the White House at 9:05 am ET. Then the two head over to Arlington National Cemetery to participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns at 11:00 am, and the president will deliver remarks 25 minutes later. Also today, Vice President Biden hosts a lunch for veterans and servicemembers at the Naval Observatory at noon.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 27 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Healer-in-Chief: The commander-in-chief tries to become the nation’s healer-in-chief when he travels to Texas to participate in the memorial service at Fort Hood after Thursday’s massacre there. President Obama and the first lady arrive in Killeen, TX at 12:25 pm ET; they meet with the families who lost loved ones in the tragedy at 12:50 pm; they then meet with wounded soldiers and their families at 1:20 pm; finally, the president addresses the Fort Hood community at 2:00 pm. These kind of moments are BIG for presidents; in fact, they're more defining than presidents themselves sometimes realize. Does Obama say anything about some of the reaction we’ve seen to Muslims serving in the military? (Yesterday, the conservative group America Family Association called for the purging of Muslim soldiers in the U.S. armed forces.) It would be surprising if he did NOT address this potential firestorm which, while not yet spreading, is no where near contained. That said, stories like this piece in the Washington Post on Maj. Hasan's warnings of Muslim uprisings INSIDE the military will only make this issue of Hasan's religion a continued focal point.
*** No decision on Afghanistan -- yet: Per NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, senior White House sources dispute the reports that the president has made up his mind to deploy more than 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. In fact, the White House says President Obama has NOT decided. One senior official, who spoke to the president yesterday on the subject, stressed that Obama had not made up his mind. A senior U.S. military official adds to NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski that Defense Secretary Gates and the Joint Chiefs have NOT yet presented the president with additional options that he asked for more than a week ago; they are expected to do that later this week, and Guthrie says the White House is awaiting four options. But while the White House is pushing back on this 30,000-plus number, that doesn’t mean this won’t be the administration’s ultimate decision. The concerted effort to push back has to do with the administration's belief that the focus should be on its new strategy, not on troop levels. As for a decision, it obviously won't come during his trip to Asia (Press Secretary Gibbs himself all but said that yesterday). Will he really let Thanksgiving go by before announcing?
*** Bubba heads to the Hill: Former President Bill Clinton heads to Capitol Hill today to speak to Democratic senators at their weekly caucus meeting at 1:45 pm ET. The topic, of course, will be health care. What’s particularly interesting is that Clinton has strong ties to the Senate centrists who could very well decide the fate of the health-care bill in the Senate. Clinton was governor when Ben Nelson served as governor of Nebraska; Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor just happen to represent Clinton’s home state of Arkansas; and Clinton and Joe Lieberman used to be VERY close personally and ideologically -- all before the Lewinsky scandal. In particular, what kind of advice does Clinton give to Lincoln and Pryor? What does he say to Lieberman (if the Connecticut senator ends up attending)? During the '08 campaign, Clinton found his stride campaigning in, well, red America -- in places that are similar politically to Arkansas, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. Clinton's at his best when he's giving OTHERS political advice, and he excels at framing an argument better than just about anyone on the political stage today.
*** NARAL -- fired up and ready to go? Staying with health care… Is the pro-choice community considering funding primary challenges to pro-life Dems? Sounds like it from this Politics Daily report. "It's too early to say whether the abortion rights lobby is a sleeping giant, but it is definitely, some would say finally, awake. Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL ProChoice America, was in a fighting mood in an interview on Monday. 'There's elections coming up in 2010. We will know who stood with us and who stood against us,' she told me. The latter, she said, may face primary challenges. 'Nothing's off the table,' she said. 'It's a new day and I'm here to tell you we're going to hold those accountable who voted against us.' This would be a departure. According to Keenan, her group has supported a challenger in a Democratic primary only once." What will the pro-choice community say today in response to Rep. Loretta Sanchez's (D-CA) contention on “Morning Joe” today that there are only approximately 150 pro-choice votes in Congress? This is the unintended consequence of trying to become a big-tent party on certain issues (like guns and abortion).
*** RGA loses two in one day: Just one week after the GOP’s wins in New Jersey and Virginia, we assumed that Republicans would be gaining key gubernatorial candidates -- not losing them. But that’s exactly what happened yesterday. First, up-and-coming Colorado Republican Josh Penry announced that he wouldn't run for governor, which essentially means that former GOP Rep. Scott McInnis will be the Republican who will challenge Gov. Bill Ritter (D) next year. Then, Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R) said she won’t run for another term next year, which gives Dems a pretty good shot at winning that seat. Something must have spooked Penry; a source tells us that a pro-McInnis 527 was gearing up to go after Penry, who used to work as an aide to McInnis. But the energy behind Penry was palpable, which his VERY early exit a surprise to a lot of folks, particularly here in DC. As for Rell, her poll numbers -- while better than most governors’ -- have declined; she isn’t as popular as she once was. Indeed, a new Quinnipiac poll has her with a 64% job rating, which (believe it or not) isn’t close to the high she once enjoyed in the 70s and 80s. Rell was going to have her first tough campaign as governor and, well, being a governor these days is difficult.
*** Another thing to add to Wednesday’s calendar: Tomorrow, on Veterans Day, First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden will join the national service group ServiceNation to launch its “Mission Serve” initiative, a network of military and civilian service organizations to meet the needs of troops, military families, and veterans. Both Michelle Obama and Jill Biden will deliver remarks at the event, which takes place in DC.
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Countdown to Election Day 2010: 357 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Senate gets the baton: After Saturday night’s historic, contentious, and very narrow health-care vote in the House of Representatives, the action now moves to the Senate, where things won’t get any easier. On Sunday, President Obama made a rare statement from the White House Rose Garden. “Now it falls on the United States Senate to take the baton and bring this effort to the finish line on behalf of the American people,” he said. Unfortunately for Obama and the Democrats, the Senate will never be mistaken for Usain Bolt. Why? While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford losing 39 Democratic votes on Saturday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can’t lose a single one to bring it to the floor. What’s more, conservative Senate Dems -- not to mention Joe Lieberman (I-D) -- have major objections to the “opt out” public option in Reid’s bill. “If the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote,” Lieberman said yesterday on FOX.
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Video:
Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., President of the American Medical Association Dr. James Rohack and the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart debate whether the House health reform bill will pass in the Senate.
*** Give Pelosi her due: Speaker Pelosi deserves her due on Saturday’s vote. She had said she'd get this out of the House as soon as she had the votes. By going when she did, with another Dem in her pocket (the new seat in NY-23) and keeping the House in session over the weekend, she got it done. And she even quelled a potential uprising among the most pro-choice members of her caucus. It was an impressive performance; she had her share of backseat drivers in all parts of official Washington, and she pulled it off. By the way, the NEXT health care vote in the House should be easier to get, given that what comes out of conference (the “opt out” or the trigger) will likely be a tad easier for moderates to support. That said, the abortion issue could still end up a problem at some point in this process. But the way she navigated the bill over the weekend should re-shape the C.W. on her a tad. As the L.A. Times notes, she's a lot more pragmatic than her opponents want to paint her. And now you know why she was able to become leader of her caucus and why she's Speaker until either the voters decide -- or she decide she doesn't want the job anymore.
*** Republicans aren’t the only ones eating their own: As mentioned, 39 House Democrats -- most of them from conservative-leaning congressional districts -- voted against the bill, while just one Republican -- Cao of Louisiana -- voted for it. Well, liberal MoveOn has announced it will launch a $500,000 ad blitz, which will start in the middle of the week, targeting Dems who voted against it, such as Mike Ross (AR), Jason Altmire (PA), Glenn Nye (VA), Rick Boucher (VA), Larry Kissell (NC), and Health Shuler (NC). Meanwhile, MoveOn says it will hold “thank you” events on Thursday and Friday for some 60 Dems who voted yes, and AFSCME and liberal Health Care for America Now (HCAN) are also running TV ads thanking many of these folks.
*** Drawing more battle lines: Indeed, this "thank you" list is a good place to start our 2010 focus to see how the Obama agenda is playing -- not in the 39 districts of the Democrats who voted no. A First Read analysis of the Saturday’s vote finds that about 60 of the Democrats who voted for health care are either in vulnerable or potentially vulnerable districts, including 18 who represent districts that went for McCain. Another 10 are in districts where Obama got less than 55%; six are from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 are in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but they won by more than 55%; and at least another 12 are in districts where both they and Obama got more than 55%, but either have been competitive in the past or could be competitive. We'll release the full list later today.
*** Backlash against Muslims? The trickiest issue for the military and the president to deal with this week regarding the Ft. Hood shootings may be the growing concern over backlash against Muslim Americans. The more we learn about the shooter, the more the military is concerned about this backlash issue. With every detail about his religion that becomes public, it's likely that much harder for other practicing Muslims in the military to walk around their bases. Army Gen. George Casey warned on “Meet the Press” that this kind of scrutiny could hurt the military’s diversity. “Our diversity -- not only in our Army but in our country -- is a strength. And as horrific as this tragedy was, if our diversity becomes a tragedy, I think that’s worse.” And if this incident gets classified as a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, something Lieberman raised over the weekend, then the backlash could get even worse.
*** Barack and Bibi: The biggest event on President Obama’s schedule today is a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at 7:00 pm ET. The Israelis usually love to get their American presidential photo-ops, but Netanyahu won't get one unless the White House releases an official photograph. Why? There is no pool spray or media moment between the two at all. Part of the reason is that the White House only agreed to meet Netanyahu in the last 48 hours, despite Netanyahu's pleas for a meeting for weeks. The Israeli leader is in U.S. for a speech here in DC. The fact this meeting was so difficult to put together only underscores the perception that the two men just don't see eye-to-eye when it comes to their world views; the two are distant, there’s no other way to describe their relationship. The Middle East peace process appears stalled (that should be a topic tonight), and then the news that Iran is reneging on its deal over nukes will also be something that dominates.
*** Time to walk away? On Sunday, the New York Times’ Tom Friedman issued some advice for Obama when it comes to the Middle East: walk away from the negotiating table until Israel and the Palestinian Authority realize they really want peace. “Right now we want it more than the parties. They all have other priorities today. And by constantly injecting ourselves we’ve become their Novocain. We relieve all the political pain from the Arab and Israeli decision-makers by creating the impression in the minds of their publics that something serious is happening… Indeed, it’s time for us to dust off James Baker’s line: ‘When you’re serious, give us a call: 202-456-1414. Ask for Barack. Otherwise, stay out of our lives. We have our own country to fix.’”
*** 2012 watch: By the way, look who was in Iowa this weekend: Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee. “Pawlenty’s speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines [was] the first high- profile event of the early audition season in the state that holds the nation’s first presidential caucus,” Bloomberg News writes. And check out this quote from T-Paw: “Minnesota and Iowa have a lot in common. We’re a state that if you drive across the Minnesota border into northern Iowa, you can’t tell that you’re in a different state in a lot of ways.” This is Pawlenty's launching pad, pure and simple. Even if the other major candidates attempt to downplay the Hawkeye State, Pawlenty won't (and can't) in 2012. And here was Huckabee, courtesy of the Des Moines Register: “2008 Iowa Republican caucuses winner Mike Huckabee spent his Sunday in Davenport, Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines, signing copies of his new book, 'A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.' But many of the 300 people who turned out for his book-signing in West Des Moines weren't focused on a holiday that's seven weeks away. Their minds were on 2012.”
*** Remembering the day the wall came tumbling down: Finally, today is the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Don’t miss Tom Brokaw’s reporting on the anniversary on “Meet” yesterday.
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 29 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 71 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 358 days
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