First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The race to 218 -- or more: Tomorrow night, the House is expected to vote on the Democrats' health care bill. And from now until then, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's goal -- as well as President Obama’s -- will be this: getting at least 218 votes. The next 48 hours are going to be wild, but considering the country’s focus on the tragedy to Ft. Hood, the battle will take place mostly behind the scenes and out of the media spotlight. President Obama heads to Capitol Hill tomorrow to convince on-the-fence lawmakers. Democrats currently have 258 members, and since we’re expecting zero GOP votes, that means Democrats can lose 40 members. Yet there are Dems concerned about the public option, abortion, and immigration (Congressional Hispanic Caucus members say they will vote against the measure if it prohibits illegal immigrants from being able to purchase insurance in the exchange). While we expect the House to pass the bill, it’s important to note that Pelosi has pointedly NOT said she has the votes. Why? Because she doesn’t have the votes yet. Everything we hear is that Dems have about a little more than 200 votes. Also, the goal isn’t really 218 -- but rather 225, so that there isn't one vote that decides this. You can just picture the TV ads if the bill passes by one vote, right?
*** How Saturday will go: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer explained yesterday on the House floor how Saturday will go, according to NBC’s Luke Russert. "My expectation is that on Saturday we will convene at 9:00 am in the morning. After one-minutes, we will then go to the rule on the health-care bill, and it is my expectation that we will have consideration of the healthcare bill and the Republican substitute. If we proceed a pace and come to vote and disposition on that piece of legislation, we would then adjourn at whatever hour we complete our work and the adjournment would be till the 16th of November.” Hoyer later added, “Again I want to clarify and make sure everybody understands it is our intent to finish the healthcare bill, sometime Saturday night or early Sunday morning, it would be my expectation that there would be no further business till the 16th."
*** Passing the 10% mark: Well, the White House knew it was coming, and now it’s here: The unemployment rate has topped 10% -- the first time since 1983. Per the AP, “The Labor Department says the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September.” But the unemployment rate increased, from 9.8% in Sept. to 10.2% in Oct. It only took about five minutes for Republicans to pounce on the numbers.
*** Brooks vs. Krugman: Interestingly (but not necessarily surprisingly), David Brooks and Paul Krugman offer the White House contradictory advice. Brooks says that Obama needs to play to the middle. “[T]hese voters are not turning to government for support. Trust in government is at its lowest level in recent memory. Over the past year, there has been a shift to the right on issue after issue. According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who believe that there is too much government regulation rose from 38 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in 2009. The percentage of Americans who want unions to have less influence rose from 32 percent to a record 42 percent.” On the other hand, Krugman argues the White House hasn’t been aggressive enough. “President Obama came into office with a strong mandate and proclaimed the need to take bold action on the economy. His actual actions, however, were cautious rather than bold. They were enough to pull the economy back from the brink, but not enough to bring unemployment down.”
*** Stepping on the NY-23 narrative: Turning to Tuesday’s elections, Republicans have had two very good stories to talk about (New Jersey and Virginia) and one they really don’t want to discuss (NY-23). So what did some of their leaders do yesterday? They stepped right on the NY-23 narrative. First was the thousands-strong Tea Party rally/protest/press conference on Capitol Hill -- attended by GOP congressional leaders -- which only furthered the perception (true or not) that the GOP has become captive to its conservative base. Next came RNC Chairman Michael Steele’s apparent warning shot to moderate Republicans who supported the stimulus or health care. “We’ll come after you,” he relayed to ABC. (An RNC spokeswoman told First Read that Steele was referring only to House members, and not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus, and not a single one is expected to back health reform.)
*** Da Club targets Crist: Further stepping on the NY-23 narrative, the Club for Growth is running its first TV ad targeting Charlie Crist. The spot ties the Florida governor to Obama. By the way, a Crist-vs.-Rubio contest all seems to hinge on whether Rubio is the real deal. Somehow, Crist has to make Rubio seem either unelectable or someone who isn't ready. That's not a good place for Crist to be, because he suddenly doesn't have complete control of his destiny. He may have to win in the worst way and then that could make him vulnerable in a general, though many Republicans are extremely confident that Dem nominee-in-waiting Kendrick Meek is beatable by either Republican. The bar for Rubio as a candidate is lower than Crist's. It's going to be a LONG none months between now and the primary for Charlie Crist.
*** Others say David Paterson has been an awesome governor: Well, it doesn’t look like very vulnerable Gov. David Paterson (D) is going to bow out of his race anytime soon. Yesterday, his campaign released two TV ads that will begin airing statewide today. The first takes aim at some of his critics. “Some say I shouldn’t be running for governor,” Paterson says to the camera, singling out state legislators, union leaders, and corporations (but he leaves out the Obama White House, which doesn’t want him running, either). The other ad is a biographical spot. New York’s CBS affiliate also notes that Paterson has hired Harold Ickes for his campaign.
*** Things you might not have known about the VA contest: As it turns out, Creigh Deeds (D) lost the female vote to McDonnell (R), 46%-54%, despite making women’s issues a central part of his campaign; in fact, he was the first statewide Democrat to lose the VA female vote since 2000… Deeds also narrowly lost Fairfax County in Northern Virginia, 49%-51%; by comparison, Obama won it last year, 60%-39% and Tim Kaine won it in 2005, 60%-38%... In addition, Deeds underperformed Kaine in Loudon County and Virginia Beach (which, of course, happens when you lose a race by 18 percentage points)… And turnout was about 1.9 million -- which was equal to the ’05 gubernatorial race, but down from 2006 (2.4 million) and 2008 (3.7 million).
*** Things you might not have known about the NJ contest: Sorry, Bruce, this one’s gotta hurt: If one of us were still working for Asbury Park Press, the daily paper of the Jersey Shore, and home to Springsteen, our headline might be something like this -- “Shore propels Christie to victory.” That’s because Monmouth and Ocean counties, the two counties that make up the Press’ readership, were Christie’s top two vote-getting counties and saw the biggest increases in total vote for the Republican from ’05 to ’09 (+27,000 in Monmouth and +30,000 in Ocean). And the combined vote margin that Christie won by in the two counties over Corzine -- 134,367 -- accounted “for more than his margin of victory,” as the Press wrote yesterday… Corzine also got fewer votes in EVERY single county in the state than he did in ’05, and Christie got MORE votes out of every county than Doug Forrester ’05… Basically, when you look at the entire state, Corzine got destroyed in the suburbs, and although he held margins in traditionally Democratic Counties around New York City and Philadelphia, he got fewer votes out of them. Even though overall turnout was about the same as 2005, it was down in Democratic ones and up in Republican ones.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Owning the results: By yesterday offering up two top White House aides -- David Axelrod and Robert Gibbs -- to talk about Tuesday’s elections, the White House decided to own the results. And the move seemed to send two signals: 1) they believe the outcomes weren’t as disastrous as some in the chattering class were making them out to be, and 2) they don't want to look as if they are thick-headed and don't see the obvious -- that their party didn't do well in a VERY important swing state, Virginia.
*** Nationalizing 2010: In Axelrod’s interview with one of us, he talked about the Democrats’ turnout problem on Tuesday, and he claimed that if they nationalize 2010, they won't have that problem. Translation: The White House is going to take a page from the 2002 White House playbook, which is to nationalize the midterms and try and do it on your terms. The downside of trying to AVOID nationalizing 2010 is what happened in Virginia -- the base doesn't show up, etc. So if the White House wants to minimize losses in 2010, then it has to get as many of their 2008 voters to the polls. And that means the president has to be front and center. Axelrod made that crystal clear in his interview.
*** Tea’d off: Two days after their victories in New Jersey and Virginia (where their candidates played down their conservatism and didn’t run directly against President Obama) and their loss in NY-23 (where a conservative-vs.-moderate split led to their defeat), Republicans today are welcoming conservative Tea Party activists to Capitol Hill to protest the Democrats’ health-care legislation. Organizer Rep. Michele Bachmann (R), per NBC’s Luke Russert, has called the event “The Super Bowl of Freedom.” In fact, today’s conservative gathering epitomizes this challenge for Republicans: How do you tap into a fired-up conservative base (which obviously benefited them in NJ and VA) but make sure that base doesn’t begin eating its own (which happened in NY-23). By the way, there have been a couple of interesting developments in the wake of NY-23: 1) NRSC Chair John Cornyn saying that his committee would not be spending any money where there are contested GOP primaries, which seems as a response to its earlier endorsement of Charlie Crist in Florida, and 2) Senate candidate Mark Kirk seeking Palin’s endorsement to help him survive the primary challenge he’s receiving from the right in Illinois.
*** Does Kirk really want Palin by his side in Illinois? By the way, Kirk’s move is fascinating. One Republican said to us that it seemed ham-handed. Added this Republican: What if Kirk gets the endorsement? Does he want her as a running mate in Illinois? Does he want to nationalize his race in this blue home state of the president? Maybe, the decision was, "If you ask her for the endorsement, she'll at least STAY OUT of the primary.” But it's awfully high risk for the general. Don’t forget -- Kirk's primary is the next one on the political calendar of any consequence.
*** Don’t lose focus on the Dem primaries: While we’ve focused on the upcoming 2010 GOP primaries in the wake of what happened in NY-23, Republicans have reminded us that Democrats face some pretty contentious primaries next year, too. In Colorado, incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet is receiving a challenge from Andrew Romanoff; in Pennsylvania, there’s the Specter-vs.-Sestak showdown; in Kentucky, Jack Conway is battling Dan Mongiardo; and in Ohio, the DSCC has appeared to take sides in the Fisher-vs.-Brunner contest. But the big difference to us -- so far -- is that the Democratic primaries don’t seem to be the rallying cry for liberals the same way that the Republican primaries have become for conservatives. After all, we haven’t seen Joe Sestak on the cover of The Nation the same way that National Review had Marco Rubio on its cover.
*** The great American health-care fight: In addition to today’s conservative protests on Capitol Hill, AARP is set to endorse the House Democratic health-care bill… The House is slated to vote on that bill this coming Saturday… And liberal-leaning Americans United for Change says it’s airing a new TV ad ($17,000 buy on DC-area cable) criticizing the House GOP health plan.
*** Get it done -- now: In a way, you can see the House decision to vote on health care this Saturday as a direct response to the elections. Bottom line: Don't give wavering lawmakers more time over the weekend to think about the election results or listen to punditry; just get their vote done. Also, the quick health-care vote is an attempt to put some pressure on the Senate. The fact is this: If health care slips into 2010, it could die… One other point: The last thing the White House needed was Nancy Pelosi to say "we won" like she did yesterday. One could make an argument that the House Democrats DID have a good Tuesday night. And, strategically, the DCCC looks like a smooth operation (like the NRCC did circa 2000-2004). But, tonally, was it helpful to her party to verbalize what she believed as far as this fact is concerned? It gave the cablers and the intertubes something to rally around and debate in a superficial way that only puts the speaker in a more negative light.
*** Obama’s day: President Obama delivers opening remarks (at 9:30 am ET) and then closing remarks (at 4:50 pm) at a White House-sponsored Tribal Nations Conference that takes place at the Interior Department. Per the White House, this conference “will provide leaders from the 564 federally recognized tribes the opportunity to interact directly with the president and representatives from the highest levels of his administration. Each federally recognized tribe has been invited to send one representative to the conference.” Also on his calendar today, Obama meets with President Ian Khama of Botswana (pool spray), Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner (closed press), Vice President Biden (closed press), and Secretary of State Clinton (closed press).
*** Also today: First Lady Michelle Obama speaks at the Department of Energy before leading a practice session for students participating in the Science Bowl at 2:00 pm ET… Vice President Biden hosts a panel on challenges facing the middle class at 10:30 am… On Capitol Hill, Democrats Bill Owens and John Garamendi, winners of special elections in NY-23 and CA-10, respectively, are sworn in… And Secretary of State Clinton meets with Germany's foreign minister (at 1:15 pm), then with the families of the missing hikers in Iran (3:00 pm), and then with National Security Council principals at the White House (5:00 pm). Speaking of Clinton, she’s the cover of the latest issue of Time magazine.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Last Night’s Lessons: What a difference a year makes. Exactly a year to the day when Barack Obama celebrated his presidential victory in Grant Park and Democrats picked up additional seats in the House and Senate, Republicans are now basking in their gubernatorial sweep from last night. In Virginia, as expected, Bob McDonnell (R) crushed Creigh Deeds (D). And in that close contest in New Jersey, challenger Chris Christie (R) bested incumbent Jon Corzine (D). Yet in perhaps the most surprising result of the night, Bill Owens (D) ended up beating third-party candidate Doug Hoffman in that NY-23 special election after conservatives forced the moderate GOP nominee to withdraw from the race. As we've written, the lessons from last night's contests have been evident for quite some time. And how 2010 and 2012 turn out could very well depend on which party does a better -- or poorer -- job of learning from them.
*** Lesson No. 1: Democrats Lost Indies: For the White House, last night's exit polls confirmed that the outcomes weren't exactly a referendum on President Obama. But they also provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.
*** Lesson No. 2: Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.
*** Lesson No. 3: Incumbents, Watch Out: Another takeaway from last night was that it wasn’t a good night to be an incumbent -- or a wealthy self-funder. After outspending his GOP opponent 3-1 (and 2-1 when you included money from the parties), Jon Corzine lost in New Jersey. More surprisingly, Michael Bloomberg (I) won by only five percentage points after spending some $100 million (!!!) against his under-funded Democratic challenger. The House, Senate, and gubernatorial incumbents running for re-election next year better figure out how to run as the outsider.
*** Lesson No. 4: Ideological Civil Wars Don’t Help You Win Elections: In NY-23, Republicans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a district they’ve controlled since the 19th century after prominent conservatives -- Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, Club for Growth, Tea Party organizers -- backed the more conservative candidate (Hoffman), which eventually forced the moderate GOP nominee (Scozzafava) to withdraw from the race. That enabled the Democrat (Owens) to win, 49%-45%, with Scozzafava becoming the spoiler by getting 6%. Ponder this: Was it a better night to be a Republican running toward the middle, or a conservative running on base issues? Consider the NY 23 result and the fact that BOTH anti-tax initiatives on the ballot in Maine and Washington went down... Also consider that McDonnell and Christie didn't run AGAINST the president but hugged the middle; Christie's victory speech, in fact, was a page out of the Obama playbook. (Literally, he used the phrase "turn the page" and said hope and opportunity a few times). By the way, the GOP now controls just two out of New York's 29 congressional districts and it has lost six seats Upstate NY since 2006. It holds no seats in New England, just one in traditionally conservative Upstate New York, and one out in Long Island.
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Video:
Chuck Todd breaks down the 2009 election results and what they mean to President Obama and the Democratic Party.***
History repeats itself: After a while, you can’t dismiss these trends: Yesterday became the NINTH-consecutive time (since 1977) that the party that won the White House lost Virginia’s gubernatorial contest the following year. And yesterday became the SIXTH-consecutive time (since 1989) that the party controlling the White House lost New Jersey’s gov race. Whether due to buyer’s remorse, happenstance, or a combination of the two, those trends should give all us pause in making broad statements about last night’s two contests -- and what they mean for the White House, the midterms, or the next presidential contest.
*** Hailing Haley: If there was one big winner from last, it was Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and his Republican Governors Association. In what turned out to be a brilliant move, the RGA ran TV ads attacking independent Chris Daggett. What happened? Daggett got just 6% of the vote, which was down considerably from the double digits he was receiving in polls just a week or two ago. As one very smart Democratic pollster told First Read, Corzine’s best path to victory was having Daggett get 12% of the vote, enabling Corzine to win with at 45%. As it turns out, Corzine got his 45%. But with Daggett getting only 6%, that’s how Christie was able to win, 49%-45%.
*** Grading the party committees: The RGA and DCCC can both say they went 2-0 last night, as the DCCC won in NY-23 and CA-10. NRCC Chair Pete Sessions needs to hope activists are so euphoric about Virginia and New Jersey that they don't decide to hold Sessions accountable for the fact that Scozzafava turned out to be the spoiler for Hoffman. Also, DNC Chair Tim Kaine is going to have to explain how Deeds was not just outspent in Kaine's home state, but why the committee didn't step in when it was crystal clear the campaign was a problem MONTHS ago. To some Democrats, there's an appearance that Kaine's DNC gave up on Virginia so early that it created a snowball effect that clobbered the party up and down the ballot.
*** The White House/Pelosi/Reid healthcare challenge: Incumbent Democrats will read the Corzine loss and the independent-voter slaughter in both swing Virginia and blue New Jersey as a sign they need to go a LOT slower on health care and energy. The Washington Dem leadership is going to have to figure out how to convince some skeptical Blue Dogs and conservative Democrats that passing something is better than passing nothing. It's going to be an argument that heats up big time, as Democratic activists argue the Virginia result is more about a depressed base than it is about an angry middle. Pelosi didn't have the votes for health care yesterday, is she farther away today? On the other hand, does getting health care passed actually boost Obama’s (and Democrats’) numbers?
*** Just askin’: If supporters of same-sex marriage couldn’t win ballot initiatives in deep-blue California (in an election Democrats overwhelmingly won) and in Maine, where can they win?
*** Obama’s day: President Obama today leaves Washington for Wisconsin, where he will give a speech on education at 2:30 pm ET. Here’s a little political trivia for you. In 2004, Wisconsin was the closest state in the presidential election, going to John Kerry by just 0.38 percentage points over George W. Bush. But, in 2008, Obama won it by almost 14 percentage points (56.2% to 42.3%) over John McCain. It was the largest margin of victory in Wisconsin by any presidential candidate since 1964 when Johnson defeated Goldwater 62%-38%. The state was also a key primary victory for Obama, whose political home state of Illinois shares a border with Wisconsin.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A referendum on Obama? Deep down, a political reporter’s first instinct is to nationalize off-year and special elections. Why? It’s the best way to try to make sense -- at least initially -- of a handful of races across the country. It’s also the best way to sell a local race’s importance to editors and producers. We all do it. So it shouldn’t be surprising that almost everyone is nationalizing today’s gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, and even the NY-23 special congressional election. And the chief question they’re asking is: Are they referendums on President Obama’s first year in office? Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that the New Jersey race was “one of several [contests] likely to be viewed as a barometer of the president’s popularity.” And here was the AP: “A Corzine loss would be seen as a political embarrassment for the White House.”
*** Remember that candidates matter: If Democrats lose in New Jersey and Virginia, that certainly would be a shot in the arm for a Republican Party that hasn’t fared well in the in the past two election cycles (losing control of Congress and the White House). That outcome also could give Democrats pause that the voter coalition that propelled Obama to victory last year (liberals, young voters, minorities, independents) appears dormant or is no longer intact. But is that a referendum on Obama? Not so much. For starters, how much does Creigh Deeds losing in Virginia say about Obama, when the president’s approval rating in the state is at 57% among registered voters and 54% among likely voters, according to the most recent Washington Post poll? And if Jon Corzine’s favorable rating in the Quinnipiac poll was at 38% back in March (near the height of Obama’s honeymoon), and it’s at 39% now, how does that say much about Obama and his popularity/presidency? Likewise, if Democrats are able to split the races by winning in New Jersey or even pull off the upset in Virginia, does that mean Obama’s presidency is on easy street? Absolutely not. In short, these races say much more about Deeds/McDonnell or Corzine/Christie than they do about Obama.
*** But issues matter, too: By the way, even Republican Governors Association Chair Haley Barbour said today's races are NOT a referendum on the president. But Barbour argued that the policy climate they've set is on the ballot today. Evan Tracey, the campaign TV ad analyst for CMAG, points out that in just the D.C. market (read: Northern Virginia voters), more than $10 million in TV ads have run this year on various issues the president and his party are pushing. Did it set up a climate in Northern Virginia of government doing too much opening the door a tad more for McDonnell?
*** Bellwethers for 2010? Here’s another question people are asking about today’s contests: What do they say about the 2010 midterms? Again, it’s hard to say. As we pointed out last week, Democrats won both the NJ and VA races in 2005 -- right after Hurricane Katrina -- which was an early sign of their success in 2006 (when they took back control of Congress) and in 2008 (when they won the White House). Yet in 2001 -- right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- Democrats also won the NJ and VA contests. But a year later, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and George W. Bush won re-election in 2004. Here’s one other bit of history that’s hard to dismiss: Since 1977 (so the past eight elections), the party that controls the White House has lost the Virginia gubernatorial contest. And since 1989 (the past five elections), the party controlling the White House has lost New Jersey.
*** Lessons learned: Still, these contests do tell a national story. But here’s the thing: The lessons are already known, no matter the outcomes. Win or lose, Corzine won't get 50%, meaning more than half of the state voted to oust him in a very blue state. We know that the Republican Party has to deal with both an ideological and an establishment-vs.-grassroots rift. We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters -- from Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in NY-23. And we know that the president's coattails have gotten shorter. As one of us wrote, “So it isn't about whether or not Tuesday's elections matter. Tuesday is about which party learns the messages voters are sending. And which party over-interprets or under-interprets those messages.”
*** Other races to watch: Besides the NJ/VA/NY-23 contests, Maine is voting on a ballot initiative whether to overturn the state’s law allowing same-sex marriage, and the outcome could go either way. Also, New York City, Boston, and at least a dozen more big cities are holding mayoral elections. Polls close in Virginia at 7:00 pm ET; in Maine, New Jersey, and Boston at 8:00 pm; and in New York at 9:00 pm. One final thought here: What should the House GOP leadership (read: Pete Sessions) worry about more -- a Hoffman loss in NY-23 or a Garamendi (D) victory by less than five points in CA-10? Folks, the special election in blue CA-10, which Ellen Tauscher represented before heading to the Obama State Department, might be closer than many people expected a week ago….
*** How would a recount work in NJ? New Jersey is shaping up to be the closest election tonight. So what if it’s so close that the winner is unclear? Well, there’s no automatic recount. In other words, no vote margin triggers an automatic statewide recount. Instead, a candidate would have 15 days (Nov. 18) to request one. (They'd file in New Jersey Superior Court). There is a fee that the petitioning candidate has to incur (the Secretary of State’s office didn't know how much), but all other costs are incurred by the counties. Candidates have 30 days to contest the election if they feel it was fraudulent. Once a candidate files, that would trigger an investigation. Impress Your Friends at the Water Cooler Alert: The last time a candidate requested a recount was in 1981 by Democrat Jim Florio, who in the end lost to Republican Tom Kean by 1,797 votes. The closest gubernatorial elections since ’81 were in '93 and '97, when Christie Todd Whitman won by fewer than 25,000 votes. By the way, our exit poll/ballot counting experts in the NBC News boiler room tell us as many as 100,000 votes won't be counted tonight in New Jersey. If we haven't called this race by midnight, could it be we won't be able to call it for days?
*** Turnout watch: Turnout in New Jersey’s last gubernatorial contest, in 2005, was 2.3 million; in 2006, it was about 2.25 million for the Menendez-Kean Senate race; and in last year’s presidential, it was around 3.8 million… Turnout in Virginia’s last gubernatorial contest, in 2005, was about 2 million; in 2006, it was about 2.4 million in the Webb-Allen Senate contest; and in last year’s presidential, it was about 3.7 million.
*** Obama supporters disappointed? This New York Times piece is indicative of what we’ve seen/heard from some Obama supporters lately: They are disappointed with Obama, discovering that campaigning is a lot easier than governing. “Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president’s standing has leveled off, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics.”
*** Abortion returns to the health-care debate: It has been a while since the talk of “death panels” or abortion has dominated the health-care debate. And it’s probably not a coincidence that the prospects for reform now seem better than they did during that crazy August. But the issue of abortion has returned for the Democrats. The Washington Post: “While House leaders are moving toward a vote on health-care legislation by the end of the week, enough Democrats are threatening to oppose the measure over the issue of abortion to create a question about its passage… ‘I will continue whipping my colleagues to oppose bringing the bill to the floor for a vote until a clean vote against public funding for abortion is allowed,’ Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said… He said last week that 40 Democrats could vote with him to oppose the legislation -- enough to derail the bill.”
*** The GOP’s health plan: Meanwhile, House Republicans plan to -- finally! -- unveil their health-care bill this week. And it doesn’t look anything like any of the Democrats’ legislation. Two big differences: Their legislation won’t prevent health insurers from denying coverage to those with preexisting conditions, and it won’t provide money to help those without health insurance. House Minority Leader John Boehner said “that the measure would not include language banning insurance companies from denying coverage to consumers with preexisting conditions, a prominent feature of Democrats' bills in both the House and Senate,” the Washington Post writes. “And while some Republican health-care proposals have called for giving individuals tax credits to help them buy insurance, that idea won't be included in this week's GOP bill because it would cost too much.”
*** Obama’s day: The president meets at the White House with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at 9:10 am ET (Merkel also addresses Congress today). At 2:40 pm, Obama participates in a U.S.-E.U. summit. And he meets with Defense Secretary Gates at 4:30 pm and with Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) at 5:15 pm (both of which are closed to the press).
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The GOP’s two paths: Republicans are set to learn two very contradictory lessons from their likely victories tomorrow in Virginia and NY-23. In Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as we’ve written before, Bob McDonnell (R) has hugged the middle, portraying himself as a bipartisan legislator and attorney general who has racked up significant endorsements from Democrats. He also has owned the issues of the economy and taxes. But in the NY-23 special congressional election, the lesson has been to embrace the right -- even if it means backing a third-party candidate (Doug Hoffman) over its party’s more moderate nominee (Dede Scozzafava), who suspended her campaign on Saturday and is now backing the Democrat in the race (Bill Owens). Those events over the weekend turned a three-way congressional race that the Dems could win -- by splitting the GOP vote -- into a likely Republican victory. However, First Read has learned that Scozzafava is now taping robo-calls for Owens. By the way, it’s worth remembering that McDonnell cut a deal with Virginia GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to avoid a primary. Could McDonnell have run as a centrist in the general had he run in a primary in the spring?
*** The ideological civil war in 2010: So which path does the Republican Party take as we head into 2010? As of right now, it looks like the NY-23 one (even though McDonnell is about to do something that Jerry Kilgore, George Allen, Jim Gilmore, and John McCain didn’t do this century: win in the battleground state of Virginia). On Saturday, Marco Rubio, who’s taking on the more moderate Charlie Crist in next year’s Florida Senate primary, delivered this message to conservatives on National Review Online: The “developments in New York's 23rd Congressional District should send an encouraging message to conservatives everywhere. It is not only right and necessary to stand up for our principles; it is also an appealing strategy to Americans yearning for less government and more fiscal restraint in Washington.” The conservative-vs.-moderate battle also will play out next year in Texas (where Kay Bailey Hutchison is taking on Rick Perry) and in Utah (where Sen. Bob Bennett is receiving a challenge from the right). And don’t forget that this divide already forced Sen. Arlen Specter switch parties earlier this year.
*** NY-23 and 2012: Hoffman's likely victory is either the first anecdote political analysts will use to explain how the GOP built itself back up as a grassroots party to nominate (insert semi-unknown Republican here) and defeat Obama in 2012. Or it will become what Democrats see as an ideological fight that turned off the political middle and set the stage for Obama to win re-election, thanks to a Republican Party that couldn't appeal to independents. That was the argument David Plouffe made on “Meet the Press” yesterday. “Sarah Palin, the other Republican candidates who are likely to run, the Limbaughs and Becks of the world are basically hanging a ‘moderates need not apply’ sign outside the Republican National Committee headquarters,” he said. “And for a party that has historic lows right now … it's a ... curious strategy to kind of repair this damage.”
*** Charlie Crist, you’re next: Indeed, if Hoffman wins in NY-23 tomorrow, Charlie Crist will most definitely be the right’s next target in this ideological civil war. And he’s already hurting. A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll over the weekend found that only 42% think that Crist is doing a good or excellent job as governor -- his worst rating in his 34 months in office. But the biggest worry for him? “Even most fellow Republicans don't like the job he's doing. That 51 percent of them rate Crist's performance as fair or poor is particularly ominous for someone facing an aggressive U.S. Senate primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami.” It’s snowballing for Crist. As he tries to appeal to the GOP base, that base is abandoning him. Meanwhile, Dems and indies won't bail him out now; they are becoming more partisan, too. This is all turning into a potential political nightmare for Crist. Here's some irony for you: Had Crist decided to seek a second term, he'd probably cruise to re-election (as top Dem Alex Sink wouldn't be running). Now, trying to jump to the Senate after just one term as governor (nearly half of which he's spending as a political candidate) will be its own liability.
*** What if Corzine Loses? With all the focus on NY-23 and Virginia, however, don’t forget about New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest, which will probably be the closest race Tuesday night. In fact, President Obama made his third campaign swing for Jon Corzine (D) yesterday. While Corzine has trailed for most of the year and while his approval numbers remain stuck in the 30s and 40s, almost everything has gone right for him in the final two months: 1) Chris Christie’s campaign has floundered, 2) Chris Daggett’s independent candidacy gives Corzine a path to victory without winning 50% of the vote, and 3) Obama’s recent events for Corzine and the Democratic Party’s ground game in Jersey might be what Democrats need to turn a deadlocked race into a Dem win. But what happens if Corzine loses? How will you be able to explain it? (The final Quinnipiac poll shows movement for Christie, with him up by two (42%-40%) after trailing by five last week.)
*** Rationalizing New Jersey: Well, the chief reason will have been Corzine’s unpopularity; indeed having EVERYTHING going his way these past two months has been the only way he might win tomorrow. But you also can’t dismiss concerns about the Democratic base (that for the first time in quite a while, the Dem base in New Jersey wouldn’t have been able to push the Democrat across the finish line), or the fact that incumbents across the country better be worried about their prospects next year (Chris Dodd, Harry Reid, Ted Strickland, Bill Ritter, and Chet Culver, we’re looking at you). In addition, on CNBC this morning, Christie said Obama will have no impact on the race, and he took pains not to criticize the president. So Christie's spin on Obama and the White House's spin on Obama are probably in sync! By the way, fair or not, Democrats better be ready to parry a new GOP talking point that none of the ACTUAL Democratic nominees running in NJ, VA, NY-23, and NYC mayor may break 45% on Tuesday. And in every single one of those states/districts/cities, Obama nabbed well over 50% in 2008.
*** Dede wasn’t the only one who quit a race this past weekend: Turning from the 2009 horse races to foreign policy, the big news in Afghanistan is that Abdullah Abdullah withdrew from his runoff against Karzai, the runoff was canceled, and Karzai was declared the winner. So what does this mean for the Obama administration as it weighs sending more troops into Afghanistan? It’s unclear at this point. After his meeting with his Joint Chiefs last Friday, Obama asked them to come back to the White House (possibly as early as this week) to present him with more options. The president is not happy with the choices that he has in front of him, including Gen. Stanley McCrystal's request for approximately 40,000 more troops. While nothing has been ruled out, the fact that Obama is asking for more options than what was already on the table, including the 40,000 troop request, is a strong sign that whatever number the president approves, it will likely be less than the 40,000 number. As for timing, it's also looking less likely the president will make a decision -- let alone announce a decision -- before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 11, meaning the election decision in Afghanistan may have less impact on timing than many thought.
*** McChrystal and Pat Tillman: Speaking of McChrystal and Afghanistan… On “Meet” yesterday, author Jon Krakauer discussed his new book on Pat Tillman’s death in Afghanistan, noting that McChrystal had approved paperwork for Tillman’s Silver Star, despite having evidence Tillman had died due to friendly fire. “After Tillman died, the most important thing to know is that within--instantly, within 24 hours certainly, everybody on the ground, everyone intimately involved knew it was friendly fire,” Krakauer said. “There's never any doubt it was friendly fire. McChrystal was told within 24 hours it was friendly fire. Also, immediately they started this paperwork to give Tillman a Silver Star. And the Silver Star ended up being at the center of the cover-up.”
*** Geithner on taxes: Also on “Meet” yesterday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner didn’t rule out the Obama administration having to raise taxes to shore up the nation’s debt, and he struggled mightily NOT to actually admit it. “I just want to say this very clearly. [Obama] was committed in the campaign to make--he said in the campaign and he is committed to make sure we do this in a way that is not going to add to the burden on people making less than $250,000 a year. Now, it's going to be hard to do that, but he's committed to doing that and we can do that… We're going to have to do it in a way that's going to help to meet that test, meet that commitment, the commitment he made, to do it in a way that's fair to Americans and make sure we do it in a way that's going to allow--provide for growth and recovery going forward. But we can do this. You know, this is not beyond our capacity as a country to do.” Has "hard choices" become code for "tax hikes"?
*** Fast facts for tomorrow: One day out until tomorrow’s NJ/VA/NY-23 contests, here are some fast facts you might want handy to sound smart around water cooler, at your election-night party, or while blogging/tweeting tomorrow night: Since 1977 (for eight-straight times), the party controlling the White House has always lost Virginia’s gubernatorial contest… Since 1989 (five-straight times), the party controlling the White House has always lost New Jersey’s gubernatorial race… Republicans have lost the last four major contests in VA (the ’05 Gov race, the ’06 and ’08 Senate races, and in last year’s presidential)… And even if Chris Christie wins in NJ, he’ll likely keep this GOP alive: No Republican in a statewide race in NJ has received 50% since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
*** More 2009 trivia: The Deeds-McDonnell race in VA is a rematch from 2005, when McDonnell bested Deeds by just 360 votes in their race for state attorney general (something tells us the margin will be a bit bigger tomorrow night)… Dems hold more than a 700,000-voter-registration advantage in NJ, but almost half of all state voters (46%) are registered as unaffiliated… Corzine and Mike Bloomberg have already spent a combined $371 million on their political races since 2000… A Democrat has not controlled the NY-23 congressional district since the 19th century… If Republicans lose NY-23, they will control just two of the states 29 congressional districts; in 2006, they controlled nine, including seven Upstate.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 1 day
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 36 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 78 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 365 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Kelly Paice
*** A good week for health care? Was this a good week or a bad week for health care? This might be the most fascinating Rorschach test in Washington today. If you listen to many Democrats involved deep in the process, they sound like Kevin Bacon in "Animal House": "Remain calm! All is well!" And they very well could be right. After all, there was real progress in that both the House and Senate have merged bills, which are potentially days away from making it on the floor -- something that's never happened before on health care. That's the good news for the Democrats and the White House. The bad news? It seems all the progress that was made in winning over Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe and in lining up the moderate/conservative Dem senators has been lost. Both the House and Senate bills seem to push things toward the left of the party, suddenly putting focus (and nervousness) on those moderates. They are the ones, remember, on the 2010 election frontlines.
*** Fighting the good fight: Then again, perhaps both Senate Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi are doing what they have to do -- fight the good fight for the base and push as hard as they can until they are forced to compromise. (That’s what you’re supposed to do when negotiating, right?) Bottom line: Last week, there was little doubt health care was going to get done. At the end of this week, that’s probably still true. BUT it certainly seems like the process, for Democrats, is going to politically painful for quite some time. Of course, as we’ve said before, the sausage-making process always was going to painful -- and ugly.
*** Another Afghanistan meeting: The big news today is President Obama’s closed-door meeting on Afghanistan with his national security team and Joint Chiefs of Staff at 1:30 pm ET. Today’s meeting has the feel of a strategy implementation meeting -- more so than simply strategic review. Clearly, the president's review is winding down; this week has been FILLED with trial balloons leaked to the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the AP about various scenarios, all of which end up with the president OK-ing more troops. The question is how many…
*** Quite the work ethic in the House! A leaked summary of ethics inquiries in the House confirms the suspicion that many in this town already have: The Democrats have a growing ethics problem, and it took them just three years back in power to do that. Interestingly, if you dig deep into the Washington Post story, you'll see this ethics issue really is about one subcommittee and seems to have one person at the center of it all -- John Murtha. Couple him with the ethics cloud hovering over Ways and Means Chair Charlie Rangel and you've got yourself a ready-made issue for NEW, non-Washington Republican candidates to run on. (Should we expect Hoffman in NY-23 to turn a quickie ad over the weekend?) Don't forget the ethics clouds of '91-94 (Post office and bank) helped derail the Democrats as did the ethics clouds of '04-‘06 for the Republicans. And what really hurt both parties in power at the time was the slowness with which the leadership handled the problems. How will this Democratic leadership team handle this? Rangel and Murtha, in particular, have lots of "old bull" friends in the House. At one point does the White House and Mr. ("Change the ways of Washington") Obama say, “Enough is enough.” He's totally steered clear of this mess for some time and passed it off as House business. But if it's creating a cloud over Washington, then doesn’t he have to step in?
*** The fight over the stimulus continues: Later today, the Obama administration says it will post data showing the stimulus has created or saved some 650,000 jobs. And because this data reflects only half of the stimulus spent through Sept. 30 -- money for education, construction and roads, but not money for tax cuts or Pell grants -- administration officials say these numbers “confirm government and private forecaster’s estimates that overall Recovery Act spending has created and saved at least 1 million jobs.” More: “Analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates the Recovery Act contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter.” However, House Minority Leader John Boehner counters with this statement: “The trillion-dollar ‘stimulus’ isn’t working, and no amount of phony statistics can change that... While Washington keeps spending and piling more debt on the backs of our children and grandchildren, out-of-work families keep asking, ‘where are the jobs?’” By the way, the fact the administration is trying to SELL two sets of numbers (650,000 vs. 1 million) is leading to confusion already, and only underscores the P.R. problem the administration has in selling the stimulus; it's been a problem from the get-go.
*** Hillary’s tough talk: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave Pakistan a dose of some tough medicine, charging it’s hard to believe that no one in Pakistan's government knows where al Qaeda is -- and couldn't get them if they wanted to. She also leveled that al Qaeda has had a safe haven in Pakistan for seven years, and that there needs to be more of a two-way street between the countries. In an interview with Mitchell that aired on TODAY this morning, Clinton justified her tough talk, saying it was all part of her game plan. “I would not be representing my country if I were not to be as forthcoming with them as they have been with me,” the secretary said. This isn't the first time Clinton has delivered a blunt message while traveling overseas. Interestingly, Clinton now heads to the Middle East, a region that could certainly use some tough talk. Be sure to catch more of Andrea’s interview with Clinton on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” beginning at 1:00 pm ET.
*** Cook’s warning about Tuesday: In his latest column in National Journal, political analyst Charlie Cook warns not to read too much into the handful of contests on Tuesday. “Whatever the outcome of this year’s New Jersey and Virginia governor’s races, the results will depend on conflicting factors that are unlikely to be replicated in many contests next year,” he writes. “Beware, then, of drawing sweeping conclusions.” He also applies that advice to the fascinating NY-23 special congressional election. “Losing the seat would be a bit painful for the GOP but would not signal much about the party’s 2010 prospects elsewhere. After all, how many states have a viable Conservative Party and how many times next year will the GOP nominate someone as liberal as Scozzafava?”
*** Looking ahead to next year: Meanwhile, the person at Charlie’s “Cook Political Report” who analyzes the House races, David Wasserman, argues that -- one year out -- Republicans are poised to pick up House seats in 2010, but maybe not enough to take back the chamber. “House Democrats face real dangers, foremost a less favorable midterm electorate… But Democrats have a financial advantage, and in the era of endless robo-polling, they will also have plenty of opportunity to diagnose and treat their problems. More than turnout needs to change for the GOP to make larger gains. Republicans need to change more minds and Democrats need to make serious mistakes, like failing to focus enough on jobs throughout 2010, to put the current House majority at risk. At the current rate, it's most plausible Democrats will lose between 15 and 25 seats next year.” And 15-25 is close the average loss for a president’s first midterm election.
*** The 2009 mayoral races: In addition to next week’s NJ and VA contests, there also will be several mayoral races in at least 15 major cities across the country. The marquee ones are in New York and Boston. In New York, after billionaire Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I/R) convinced legislators to change the city's term-limits law to allow for a third term, his re-election became inevitable. Even with polls showing him leading Democrat Bill Thompson by double digits, Bloomberg has spent an extraordinary $85 million of his own money on the race -- and he's expected to eventually spend between $110 million and $140 million. (He even aired a negative attack ad against Thompson this week!?!?!) In Boston, Mayor Thomas M. Menino (D), the city’s longest-serving mayor (of 16 years), is running for a fifth term against City Councilor Michael Flaherty (D). Menino is favored, but don't miss the nasty feud between Boston firefighters and the mayor. Elsewhere, there are notable competitive races in Seattle (where the incumbent mayor lost in the primary), Charlotte (where that city's 14-year mayor is stepping down), and Houston (which the New York Times profiles today).
*** Other 2009 odds and ends: A new Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind poll has Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R) deadlocked -- with Corzine at 44%, Christie at 43%, and Daggett at 6%... And in NY-23, GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava won the endorsement of the district's main newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times. The paper writes that Scozzafava is "best equipped" for the job, while Conservative Party challenger Doug Hoffman's "ideological stands could harm the district" and "the Democratic candidate [Bill Owens] has too much to learn about district issues and the job of governing." This endorsement comes a day after the Syracuse Post-Standard announced its backing of Owens because "he offers a clear and welcome contrast to both Scozzafava and Hoffman on major issues."
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 4 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 39 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 368 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama visits Dover: Before he makes his decision whether or not to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, President Obama traveled to Dover Air Force Base late last night to witness the transfer of 18 U.S. personnel who were killed in that country. “Wearing a suit and a topcoat, Obama was greeted by the airlift wing commander before getting into car for the short drive to a base chapel, where he met with family members of the deceased,” the Washington Post reports. “Afterward, the president took part in the military's precise, solemn transfer of the cases holding the bodies of the fallen from the plane to the vehicles that would transport them to a base mortuary. Four times, Obama marched up the ramp of the transport plane and bore witness as Maj. Richard S. Bach, an Air Force chaplain, offered a prayer over the remains. Afterward, he joined other officials, including Attorney General Eric C. Holder, standing at attention and saluting.” (The video footage of the Dover event, by the way, is for just one soldier, as the family of Sgt. Dale Griffin gave permission for media coverage.) The president returned to the White House a little before 5:00 am ET. Perhaps more than anything else, last night’s visit signals that whatever troop decision Obama makes, it should keep the left from being overly critical as he's absorbed the cost of his decision from every angle -- including this one.
*** The recession is over: That is the message from the latest GDP numbers. Per the AP, “The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. It was the strongest signal yet the economy entered a new phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.” That’s news the Obama White House will definitely tout today. But here’s the news that the GOP will tout, courtesy again of the AP: “An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports.” The White House late last night fired off an aggressive response to the article: “This story draws misleading conclusions from a handful of examples. It looks at only a small portion of the data -- an initial upload of data representing just two percent of Recovery Act spending – that was made publicly available before a full review of its accuracy could be done.”
*** Pelosi’s health bill: At 10:30 am ET, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats will outline the health-care legislation they plan to bring to the House floor. As NBC’s Mike Viqueira reported yesterday, the measure is not expected to include the "robust" public option, or the reimbursement rate to medical professions based on Medicare plus 5%. Instead, it will include a public option based on rates negotiated region by region -- which Harry Reid’s Senate bill also includes.
*** The great American health-care fight: There are many other moving parts today in the health-care debate. The Democratic National Committee goes after Sarah Palin in its latest “Call’em out” campaign to debunk what it says are the mistruths she has spread on health-care reform… With Sen. Evan Bayh (D) apparently undecided whether he’d join a GOP filibuster, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America are releasing new polling data (courtesy of Research 2000) showing that Indiana voters support a public option by a 52%-42% margin… The Dem-leaning Americans United for Change has a Web video blasting health insurers and their anti-trust protection… And the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a Halloween-themed Web video whacking Obama and the Democrats on health-care and a host of other things.
*** Plouffe on Hillary, Palin: This Sunday on “Meet the Press,” David Gregory will interview Obama campaign David Plouffe regarding his new book, “The Audacity to Win: The Inside Story and Lessons of Barack Obama’s Historic Victory.” Time magazine has some excerpts from Plouffe’s book. On weighing Hillary as Obama’s VP: “Barack continued to be intrigued by Hillary. ‘I still think Hillary has a lot of what I am looking for in a VP,’ he said to us ‘... I think Bill may be too big a complication. If I picked her, my concern is that there would be more than two of us in the relationship.’ Neither Ax nor I were fans of the Hillary option.” And on Palin: “I also thought it was a downright bizarre, ill-considered and deeply puzzling choice ... [Obama] said, “... when voters step back and analyze how he made this decision, I think he’s going to be in big trouble. You just can’t wing something like this — it’s too important.”
*** A ceasefire in the Chamber-White House war? In the past few days, the Obama White House and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have engaged in a spirited -- and public -- battle over health care and climate change. But today, at least, the sides appear to be calling a truce. At 11:50 am ET, Obama will deliver remarks at the White House to members of the Chamber, the normally Republican-leaning National Federation of Independent Business, and other small business owners. Per the White House, the speech is a follow up “to the small business announcement last week that would increase the caps for existing SBA loans and give smaller banks better access to TARP funding to encourage more lending.” Later in the day, Obama meets with Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.
*** Swine flu, WH perks: Two other stories, via the New York Times, deserve attention today. The first is about the shortage of the swine flu vaccine. “The shortage, caused by delays in the vaccine manufacturing process, has put the president in exactly the situation he sought to avoid — one in which questions are being raised about the government’s response.” Yesterday, we saw the first Republican lawmaker (Missouri Rep./Senate candidate Roy Blunt) hit the administration on this issue. The other story worth keeping an eye on is the follow-up to that Washington Times story from yesterday, which alleged that big contributors were receiving special perks. “Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, spent part of his briefing on Wednesday trying to dismiss the suggestion that people who gave money to President Obama were given special access to the executive mansion. The questions arose after The Washington Times reported that Mr. Obama has continued the longtime practice of rewarding donors with perks, including use of the bowling alley. ‘Contributing doesn’t guarantee a visit to the White House,’ Mr. Gibbs said, ‘nor does it preclude it.’” The question the White House seems to be having the TOUGHEST time answering is not granting donors access to the White House -- but why high level officials, like Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina, are participating in donor briefings at DNC events?
*** Rove’s 2009 spin: In his weekly Wall Street Journal column, Karl Rove writes how the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests could be harbingers for the 2010 midterms. “Tuesday's election will provide the most tangible evidence so far of how strong a backlash is building—and just how frightened centrist Democrats should be of 2010. For Republicans, it looks as if hope and change are on the way.” But as George W. Bush’s chief political adviser, Rove should also know that the VA and NJ races don’t always predict what’s going to happen in the midterms. In 2005 -- right after Hurricane Katrina -- Democrats won both contests, an early sign of their success in 2006 (when they back control of Congress) and in 2008 (when they won the White House). Yet in 2001 -- right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- Democrats also won both races. But the next year, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and Bush won re-election in 2004. Rove does offer some interesting advice to Republicans in that NY-23 civil war: Tell third-party conservative Doug Hoffman he is welcome to caucus with the GOP if he wins the election.
*** 2009 ballot watch: The gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the special congressional election in NY-23, are certainly the marquee races on Tuesday. But there are also several ballot initiatives to watch, particularly one on same-sex marriage in Maine. In May, Maine became the sixth state to pass a law allowing same-sex marriage, but voters on Tuesday will consider whether they want to repeal that law. Also in Maine, voters take up whether to change its medical marijuana law. Additionally, Maine and Washington consider a Taxpayer Bills of Right (TABOR), which would limit states and localities on taxing and spending. (In 1992, voters in Colorado approved the first TABOR.) Finally, as cities and states across the country struggle with trying to balance budgets, voters in Ohio will weigh whether to add casinos in four cities. It has become a major issue in those four cities’ mayoral elections.
*** More 2009: RNC Chair Michael Steele campaigns today and tomorrow with the top of the GOP ticket in Virginia; Steele stumped in New Jersey last week… PolitickerNJ reports that Jon Corzine (D) is outspending Chris Christie (R) by almost a 3-1 clip… And a new Virginia Commonwealth University poll has Bob McDonnell (R) up by 18 points (!!!).
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 5 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 40 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 82 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 369 days
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Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Business as usual: We're soon coming up on the one-year anniversary of Barack Obama's presidential win. And one of the messages he used during the two-year campaign -- with much success -- was that he stood for changing the ways of Washington. But a year later, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Washington is about as unpopular as it ever was. In the survey, just 23% say they trust government, which is the lowest number on this question in 12 years. What’s more, nearly half of respondents (46%) support building an independent political party to compete with the Democrats and Republicans. And nearly six in 10 (57%) blame both Ds and Rs for the partisanship in Washington; 24% blame only the Republicans and 17% blame the Democrats. “I was hoping that business as usual was going to stop with the Obama administration,” said poll respondent Brian Gross of Poolesville, MD, “and so far I just haven’t seen that.” As we’ve asked before: Does the president need to do something symbolic to show he's trying to change the D.C. culture? Maybe veto a bill with earmarks?
*** Obama, The Man vs. Obama, The President: President Obama hasn’t been immune to this anger at Washington, although he remains the most popular politician in the poll. His job-approval rating remains at 51% for a third-straight survey, 56% have a favorable view of him, and a combined 74% say they like him personally. Indeed, our poll -- which measured the president on 16 different attributes -- makes it clear that the public likes Obama the man much more than Obama the president. His high scores on personal qualities (such as being easygoing and likeable, being inspirational and exciting, improving America’s image around the world, etc.) averaged in the low 60s. But his grades on professional attributes (being a good commander-in-chief, uniting the country, changing business as usual in Washington, and achieving his goals) averaged in the low 40s. In fact, just 38% gave him high marks for uniting the country, which is a 32-point drop (!!!) from our January 2009 poll. To borrow that line from the ‘80s, “Where’s the beef?” The potentially good news here for Obama is that he has time to boost his professional scores, especially if/when health care passes.
*** A tipping point? But it's as if Obama is at a tipping point right now. So far, his personal ratings have held up, and the public has only taken it out on him professionally. The more pessimistic the country gets the more likely he'll see erosion on those personal qualities. Then again, his strong personal ratings give him some latitude and provide an opportunity to improve the professional scores. A signed health care bill, a decision on Afghanistan, progress on the jobs front are all events that could move the numbers. Another thing: If you were trying to find words to describe our NBC/WSJ poll, you might choose “unstable stability.” The numbers are pretty stable, but the public is feeling anything but…
*** Time to resurrect that dog food metaphor? While impressions of Obama’s professional performance are mixed, the same can’t be said of the Republican Party at large. Put simply, the GOP’s brand is still a mess. According to the poll, just 25% have a positive opinion of the party (compared with 42% for the Dem Party), which ties the GOP's low-water mark in the survey and which is a worse score than it ever had during the Bush presidency. (Honest question: Can the party still blame Bush for their problems if their numbers have gotten lower since he left the scene?) In addition, only 23% approve of the way in which congressional Republicans have handled health care (compared with 43% for Obama). And looking ahead to the 2010 midterms, 46% prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 38% who want a GOP-controlled Congress. Last month, Dems held a 43%-40% advantage. Also, don’t miss this: Despite being out of office and (relatively) out of the news, Sarah Palin’s fav/unfav in our poll has dropped from 32%-43% in July to 27%-46% now. In fact, her numbers now are nearly identical to Nancy Pelosi’s (26%-42%). By the way, both Palin and Pelosi are more popular than the Republican Party.
*** On Afghanistan: Today’s big headlines are out of Afghanistan, where NBC’s Brian Williams has been reporting from for past couple of days. One, October has been the deadliest month for U.S. troops in the country. Two, several U.N. workers were killed in Kabul after an early morning attack by the Taliban. So what are Americans views on Afghanistan? Per our poll, by a 47%-44% margin, respondents support increasing the troop level there, which is a reversal from last month, when 51% opposed an increase and 44% supported it. Also, as Republicans criticize Obama for waiting to announce his troop decision -- Dick Cheney recently said the president was “dithering” -- almost six in 10 (58%) say they support delaying a decision until after Afghanistan’s run-off election on Nov. 7. And when presented with four different approaches to Afghanistan, the most acceptable (at 55%) was sending 10,000 more troops to the country, while the least acceptable (at 43%) was Gen. McChrystal’s recommendation of 40,000 more troops. To put it another way, it's more acceptable to Americans to send more troops (10,00 in this case) than not sending ANY more troops. This finding also was noteworthy: 62% said they had more confidence in the generals on the ground to make the right decisions on military strategy, versus 25% who said they had more confidence in the president.
*** On health care: The NBC/WSJ poll also shows that opinions on the health-care debate haven’t changed much over the past month. Only 38% percent believe that Obama’s health plan is a good idea, compared with 42% who said it’s a bad idea, which is virtually identical to last month's score. But what has changed -- slightly (and within the margin of error) -- is the opposition to a public option. Last month’s poll found that Americans OPPOSED it by a 48%-46% margin. But now they SUPPORT it by a 48%-42% score.
*** More pro-gay, more pro-life, and more pro-gun: Besides all these numbers, perhaps the most interesting findings in the NBC/WSJ come on a series of questions about social issues. On the one hand, the percentage of respondents believing that abortion decisions should be left to a woman and her doctor has dropped from 55% in 2007 to 51% now. On the other hand, the opposition to gay marriage also has dropped, from 62% opposed in 2004 to 49% now. And also decreasing is the public’s support for gun-control measures. In 1991, three-quarters of Americans supported banning the sale of assault weapons and semiautomatic rifles. Yet this past April, 53% favored it, and in this new poll 49% say they support the ban. So as much as we in the media and both parties try to fit Americans into neat red-blue boxes on social issues, it isn't that easy.
*** Have Republicans found their Ned Lamont? With Joe Lieberman back in the news, here’s a question we pose to folks: Has conservative Doug Hoffman in that NY-23 special congressional election become the GOP’s Ned Lamont? Well, supporting Hoffman over the more moderate GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava certainly has become a Republican litmus test of sorts for 2012, much like supporting Lamont over Lieberman was back in ’06. The only difference to us is how FAST Republican politicians like Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty have backed Hoffman. Remember that the Democratic establishment (including Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) didn’t start supporting Lamont until after he had won the Democratic nomination over Lieberman in that 2006 Senate contest. RNC Chair Michael Steele said on “Morning Joe” that he was supporting the Republican candidate in the race, Scozzafava.
*** Holding your nose while voting in NJ: In the latest Quinnipiac poll measuring the New Jersey gubernatorial contest, Jon Corzine's (D) lead over Chris Christie (R) has narrowly increased from 41%-40% to 43%-38%, but that's margin of error movement. Chris Daggett, meanwhile, remains in the low teens (13%). Now among Daggett supporters, 43% of them say Christie's their second choice, while 27% picked Corzine. Other polls have had this breakdown differently. Christie's fav/unfav is still upside down at 37%-42%; Corzine's is a tad worse, 41%-52%; and Daggett sports the ONLY net positive rating at 21%-16%. By the way, Corzine's job rating is UNDER 40 -- at 39%. The state legislature in the state has an even LOWER approval rating at 26% (will that translate to down ballot churn?) Now, here's the best explanation in this poll why Corzine's ahead. He's got a net positive rating on the question of being honest and trustworthy (46%-44%), while Christie has a net NEGATIVE rating on this question, 37%-39%.
*** Obama’s day: At 11:00 am ET, President Obama delivers the Congressional Gold Medal to former Massachusetts Sen. Edward Brooke (R). At 2:10 pm, the president signs the National Defense Authorization Act into law. And then at 6:05 pm, he delivers remarks at an event commemorating the enactment of the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 6 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 41 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 83 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 370 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Public option or bust: For the past several weeks, we've wondered whether progressives were crazy for turning the public option into the Holy Grail of the health-care debate. After all, neither Obama nor the other Democrats running for president ever made it a central part of their health-care pitches during the campaign. Also, according to estimates, a public option would attract just some 12 million Americans (about the size of Illinois). And most important of all, the 60 votes to avoid a filibuster didn't seem to be there. As a result, the C.W. has always been that there would be no public option in the Senate bill -- or, at most, you’d have the so-called “trigger.” But due to liberal pressure, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced yesterday that the Senate legislation will contain a compromise “opt out” public option provision. It was a stunning development, and if a public option is included in the final bill, you've got to credit the progressive community (liberal senators, MoveOn, HCAN, PCCC, HuffPo) for fighting for it, even if it once looked like a quixotic quest.
*** Baucus is on board; what about Conrad? But getting 60 votes -- i.e., convincing moderate Dems like Ben Nelson, Blanche Lincoln, Mary Landrieu, et al, not to be a part of any filibuster -- still is going to be tricky for Senate Democrats and the White House. Yet if this statement from Max Baucus is any indication, momentum could be on their side. “I included a public option in the health reform blueprint I released nearly one year ago, and continue to support any provision, including a public option, that will ensure choice and competition and get the 60 votes needed to pass the Senate,” said Baucus, whose Senate Finance Committee bill DID NOT include a public option. “Success should be our threshold and I am going to fight hard for the 60 votes we need to meet that goal this year." Then again, we’ll be curious to see what folks like Sen. Kent Conrad (D-Co-Op), Nelson, Lincoln, etc. say about the opt-out compromise. MoveOn (through letters and other pressure) says its members are warning any moderate Dem senator that he/she will lose their support if he/she joins Republicans to filibuster a health-care bill containing a public option.
*** A Snowe job? Make no mistake, Reid has made a big gamble here. While the White House is concerned only with passing a bill -- which is why it has tried to play both sides here (supporting the public option, but not drawing a line in the sand for it) -- Reid is weighing both passage and his own re-election prospects next year, which means he’ll need support from the Democratic base. One thing is for sure, however: Olympia Snowe (R), whom Baucus and the White House wooed for months, isn’t a fan of Reid’s move. "It's unfortunate the Senate majority leader decided to take a different path," Snowe said outside her office yesterday, per NBC’s Ken Strickland. "He did say it was a pretty good dog-gone good idea with respect to 'the trigger' in September. So I don't know what exactly has happened to change his mind." Here’s the standard line we heard from the White House yesterday: They have lost Snowe today. But it’s holding out hope she’s open-minded tomorrow. A final point: Don't assume the "opt out" ends up being the final solution on public option. White House sources tell us to keep an eye on the "opt in" -- lots of the ex-governors turned senators (think Carper, Bayh, and Nelson among others) like the idea of being able to make a decision to CHOOSE help from the federal level rather than having to DENY the help...
*** Poll day! So how do Americans view the public option? What are their opinions about the health debate in general, President Obama, Washington, Afghanistan strategy, the Republican Party, and even Sarah Palin? Well, beginning at 6:30 pm ET, tune into NBC Nightly News, or click on to MSNBC.com, for the results from our latest NBC/WSJ poll. As usual, we’ll probably release a few numbers before 6:30 pm.
*** Decision time is near? Decision time appears to be around the corner on Afghanistan. The Afghan runoff is set for Nov. 7; the president leaves for Asia on Nov. 11. Think we’ll get an Oval Office address somewhere in between those two calendar bookends? It's as good of a guess as any at this point. Administration sources caution that the calendar isn't rushing their decision, but they acknowledge the Nov. 7-Nov. 11 window WAS a goal (they won't call it a goal now). Bottom line: Doesn't the president need to have a plan in place on Afghanistan before he meets with key allies in Asia (including Japan and China)? You bet he does. By the way, expect ANOTHER war council meeting sometime later this week (Thurs. or Fri.). Given the current unofficial timetable, one has to think this is the type of meeting that focuses on coming to a conclusion and making sure EVERYONE at the table supports the decision and is willing to politically SELL it.
*** Another awkward moment: About a month ago, President Obama traveled to Upstate New York to deliver a speech on the economy, which produced a very awkward moment with Gov. David Paterson (D) in the crowd. The reason: Just a day before, the New York Times published an article noting that the White House was encouraging Paterson not to run next year. Well, courtesy of administration aides complaining about Creigh Deeds’ campaign in Friday’s Washington Post, we might see another awkward moment when Obama campaigns for Deeds in Norfolk, VA beginning at 4:55 pm ET. Obama’s appearance with Deeds comes as a new Washington Post poll shows the Democrat trailing Bob McDonnell (R) by 11 percentage points, 55%-44%. Per the Post: "Seven in 10 say the president -- who remains relatively popular with an approval rating of 54 percent among likely voters and 57 percent among all those registered to vote -- won't be a factor in their vote one way or the other. These findings suggest that the Virginia race may not be the early referendum on the Obama presidency that it is often held up to be."
*** The enthusiasm gap: Yet the real headline in the poll may be the enthusiasm gap between McDonnell and Deeds. “About a quarter of Deeds voters say they are supporting him ‘not too’ enthusiastically or ‘not at all’ enthusiastically,” the Post writes. “More than nine in 10 of those who back McDonnell are ‘very’ enthusiastic or ‘fairly’ enthusiastic about the Republican.” This means Obama’s visit couldn't be coming at a better time for Deeds. Just how big will today's rally be? And how effective can a Tuesday rally be? By the way, word is he's cut his TV ad spending big time; in fact, he's barely up in the D.C. market, so reports the Washington Post’s Cillizza. The real issue for Virginia Democrats now is that a Deeds loss could produce a disastrous coattail problem -- a statewide sweep of the three offices (LG and AG) and even cost Democrats a bunch of legislative seats.
*** Full of energy: Before Obama stumps with Deeds, he gives a speech on energy and jobs in Arcadia, FL at 12:25 pm ET. In his remarks from the DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center, Obama will tout smart-grid technologies that will modernize the nation’s electricity grid. Vice President Biden also has an energy/jobs event today in Delaware, where he will make an announcement about the future of a former GM plant. These events aren’t getting the attn the White House wants. But it isn't about today; it's about whether what they DELIVER today actually produces the jobs they believe will be created.
*** Swine flu worries? It's not a Katrina moment. BUT the Obama administration is getting anxious over this vaccine issue, since it went public months ago promising about five times more dosages available by this time than the science apparently could produce. The Washington Post: "In July, Obama administration officials said companies could make 80 million to 120 million doses by mid-October. They outlined an aggressive response to the pandemic, spending more than $2 billion to buy 250 million doses of vaccine and promising enough to inoculate every American. But only about 16.5 million doses have become available so far, putting the administration in an uncomfortable political position regarding what President Obama declared last week to be a national emergency.”
*** NY-23, yeah you know me: Well, it’s official: The national press corps has discovered the most interesting political race of the 2009 cycle -- the NY-23 special congressional election, where a GOP split threatens to give a Democrat control of this seat for the first time since the 19th century. Here’s Politics Daily’s Walter Shapiro: “The consensus of political insiders (and no one should bank on this) is that Owens has the lead because of party identification, Hoffman is gaining momentum, and Scozzafava appears to be fading, despite her strong base in Watertown media market, which makes up about one third of the district." The New York Times front-pages the race, and the L.A. Times also writes: "The conservative rebellion in northern New York is showing that the anger among disaffected voters, which became prominent this summer during the "tea party" anti-spending rally in Washington and at town hall meetings on healthcare, has become a baffling political force that even Republicans are having a hard time harnessing." If the Dems win this seat, the issue of the GOP split will become the political press corps' shiny metal object, and will take any positive momentum the party wants to grab out of winning Virginia.
*** Biden as Cheney -- at least on the campaign trail: Per NBC’s Kelly Paice, Vice President Biden has now campaigned or helped raise money for fifteen House Democrats this year: Rep. John Adler (NJ), Rep. John Boccieri (OH), Rep. Gerry Connolly (VA), Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (AZ), Rep. Alan Grayson (FL), Rep. Deborah Halvorson (IL), Rep. Jim Himes (CT), Rep. Paul Hodes (NH), Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH), Rep. Larry Kissell (NC), Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (FL), Rep. Dan Maffei (NY), Rep. Glenn Nye (VA), Tom Perriello (D-VA), Zach Space (OH). What’s more, Biden is set to headline fundraising events next week for New York Reps. Michael McMahon and Scott Murphy (NY). In a way, Biden has taken on the role that Dick Cheney played 2001-2003 as the Bush administration’s go-to guy to help House candidates.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 7 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 42 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 84 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 371 days
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Iraq, Afghanistan violence: Today, we’re not starting with health-care debate or the gubernatorial races in New Jersey or Virginia. Instead, the headlines are coming out of Iraq and Afghanistan. “Two synchronized suicide car bombings struck at the heart of the Iraqi government here on Sunday, severely damaging the Justice Ministry and provincial council complexes, leaving a scene of carnage that raised new questions about the government’s ability to secure its most vital operations." Then there was this: “A series of helicopter crashes killed 14 Americans in insurgent-wracked Afghanistan on Monday, the U.S. military said. It was one of the deadliest days of the war for U.S. troops.” All this comes as the president nears a decision on a new Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy. He meets with the national security team this morning. The clock is ticking, as one would assume he has to make a decision before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 10. By the way, read between the lines of Washington Post story on the Pentagon war-gaming a couple of troop increase scenarios. Does this mean the president is leaning toward the 40,000 troop increase?
*** Jobs, jobs, jobs: Turning to the domestic front, the White House’s pro-active message this week might be "jobs, jobs, jobs." On Tuesday, Obama will be in Arcadia, FL for a tour of the DeSoto Next Generation Solar Energy Center. (Also, Vice President Biden will be in Delaware to help christen a decision by an unknown auto company to turn a defunct Delaware factory into a plant for fuel batteries.) And later this week, sources tell us the president will speak to the NFIB, which is not exactly the friendliest audience to Democrats. But the administration wants to get him out front on the issue of small business and job creation.
*** Reid vs. Obama? OK, so the two Democratic leaders aren't at odds on health care, but there is some hand-wringing on both sides as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid tries to find 60 votes for HIS version of the public option (the “opt out”), while the White House doesn't want him doing anything that upsets the Olympia Snowe applecart. Could Reid and Speaker Pelosi, by going so public with their attempts to find the votes for the public option, be putting on a show of sorts, letting the left know they tried and finally ending up in a compromise? However, the White House yesterday stressed that the president and Reid are on the same page. “A rumor is making the rounds that the White House and Senator Reid are pursuing different strategies on the public option. Those rumors are absolutely false.” The New Republic’s Jon Cohn sums it all up: Obama “wants a good public plan but he wants a bill even more--and he's not sure that the former is compatible with the latter. So he's being careful--more careful, in fact, than some of his Senate allies would like.”
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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid now has his health bill set to go, but it contains an alternative to the public option which would allow states to opt-out. Will this bill work?
*** The more things change…: Bloomberg's Al Hunt writes a column that has been waiting to be written: All of the promise of changing the way Washington does business hasn't been turned into a reality yet by the president. One just has to look at his fundraising schedule to see that the political realities continue to creep in. While unrelated, today's Washington Post story about Dem Rep. Pete Visclosky's use of earmarks to raise money is a reminder how just how the culture hasn't changed all that much, even as the party in control did change. Just asking, but if the president had vetoed an appropriations bill that contained earmarks (which he could have done this past spring), would he be looking like more of a change agent, making it harder for the Al Hunts of the world to note how the president has spent more time promising change than delivering on it? Speaking of vetoes, anyone else surprised he hasn't found something to veto? Talk about a way to show some Washington independence at a time when the rest of the country has had it up to HERE with Washington.
*** Obama’s day: At 11:30 am ET, President Obama meets with his national security team to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan. Attendees include Vice President Biden (via teleconference), Secretary of State Clinton, Defense Secretary Gates, National Security Adviser Jones, Deputy National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. (Is today’s war-gaming story in the Washington Post a sign that the president is going to reluctantly give McCrystal his troops?) After that, Obama travels to Jacksonville, FL, where he will address U.S. servicemen and servicewoman at the Naval Air Base. Then he heads to Miami, where he headlines a fundraiser for the DSCC and DCCC.
*** 2009 watch: It’s just a little over a week until Election Day… The coverage of the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia seem to underscore the conventional wisdom that Corzine and McDonnell are rising, while Deeds and Christie are flailing… On Saturday, the Corzine campaign announced that President Obama would return to New Jersey on Sunday, Nov. 1… Obama heads to Virginia to stump for Creigh Deeds tomorrow (not exactly the best GOTV day)… And Mitt Romney will campaign for McDonnell on Wednesday. It was interesting to hear over the weekend so many elected Republicans talk up McDonnell. He's on the verge of becoming the new darling of the party -- should the polls be right.
*** The micromanaging White House? A follow-up question from Friday’s Washington Post story, which included anonymous administration aides complaining about how Deeds has run his campaign so far: Come next year, is the White House really going to play armchair quarterback in the press -- in the 38 Senate, 37 governor, and 435 House races across the country? If so, it’s going to be a VERY busy and frustrating year for Team Obama. They are expected to help make decisions behind the scenes, but to go public BEFORE the election really is something that won't sit well with quite a few Democrats, even those who believe Deeds has been an awful candidate. Speaking of 2010, Vice President Biden today is in the battleground state of Ohio, where he attends events for three Ohio Democratic Reps. -- Mary Jo Kilroy, Zach Space, and John Boccieri. He participates in today’s briefing on Afghanistan via teleconference. And don’t miss this news via the New York Post’s Fred Dicker: New York AG Andrew Cuomo has apparently told Rudy Giuliani that he’s running for governor. “It was sent as a courtesy … and as a warning that the former presidential candidate would face a brutal and, according to a dozen recent polls, losing battle against the highly popular attorney general.”
*** The absent governor? An impeachment resolution targeting South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) will be introduced Tuesday. Will it go anywhere? Meanwhile, the Columbia State newspaper examines Sanford’s schedule, which in recent years suggested a governor who was no longer focused on the state’s business. “The portrait that emerges from Sanford's calendar -- his office's official record of his activities -- is one of a clear second-term focus elsewhere, not on South Carolina. By this year, staff meetings - almost nine a week in 2004 - had dwindled to just more than four a week, according to an analysis of Sanford's calendar by The State. Some of Sanford's public outreach, such as holding office hours in the far corners of the state, also had fallen by the wayside.”
*** Meet the Press, Take Two: Don’t miss Andrew Ross Sorkin and Dan Senor discussing their new books, the state of the global economy, and the culture of Wall Street in Meet the Press’ online extra.
*** Breaking into the boy’s club: Finally, we'd be remiss if we didn't pass along this stat from CBS' statistician poobah, Mark Knoller, who notes yesterday was Obama's 24th golf outing. It took Bush 43 more than two years to get to 24 rounds. Also, did it take a tough question by NBC's Savannah Guthrie on the boys-only hoops games to suddenly have the president his first woman golfing yesterday (Domestic Policy Adviser Melody Barnes)? Apparently. Timing wasn't coincidence, it seems.
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 8 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 43 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 85 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 372 days
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