States
From NBC/NJ's Carrie DannThanks to a team of gracious number-crunchers at the North Carolina State Board of Elections, here’s another fascinating tidbit about voter registration in the state -- custom-crafted at NBC/NJ's request.
It’s big news that the number of NEW registrations is off the charts here in the Tar Heel State, as many voters wake up to the blinding spotlight of presidential politics aimed unexpectedly in their squinting eyes. More than 165,000 previously unregistered voters have signed up since the first of the year.
But there’s also a lot of movement within the ranks of registered voters. Between January and March of this year, more than 30,000 currently registered voters changed their party identification. Over 12,000 of those, about 40%, are previously Republican voters who have moved OUT of the party to register either as Democrats or as unaffiliated voters able to participate in either primary on May 6th. Subtract from that the number of Dems and unaffiliated voters who moved into the GOP, and there’s still a net LOSS of about 6,700 Republican voters in three months. By contrast, the Democratic Party nabbed a net of about 4,000 voters -- previously Republican or unaffiliated -– who moved into the Dem column. And the unaffiliated group, which gained almost 50,000 new voters in the last three months, added an additional 2,700 net from the shuffle.
Why am I telling you all this? Unaffiliateds are the big bold wildcard in the Carolina election -- they’re difficult to poll and even harder to target, and their motivations are all over the map. From Republicans hoping to throw a monkey wrench in the Democratic primary at Limbaugh’s urging, to disenchanted partisans seeking a unity candidate, to last-minute undecideds, these are the voters who could surprise us all.
Rep. Rob Andrews will challenge the 84-year-old incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg in the Dem primary, the New York Times writes. “Opposition to Mr. Lautenberg stems not from any ideological differences but rather his advanced age. In a statement, Mr. Andrews said: ‘2008 is a year of great change in American politics. Millions of new voters have chosen to enter the political process as a means to make our country better. As New Jersey elects a United States senator this year, people from all over the state have expressed the desire to have real choices based on a positive, substantive campaign.’”
“The primary winner is expected to be heavily favored in the November election against whoever emerges among the three little-known Republicans competing for their party’s nomination: State Senator Joseph Pennacchio, a dentist from Morris County; Murray Sabrin, a finance professor at Ramapo College; and Andrew Unanue, a political novice and Manhattan resident whose family owns the Goya food company. Still, New Jersey’s Democrats must now cope with a bruising primary fight between two well-financed and well-known contenders.”
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. BergerPHILADELPHIA -- While a final number may not be available for a few weeks, the Pennsylvania Department of State has released an update on the number of people registered to vote in the April 22 Democratic primary here. And it shows a massive registration effort on the final day of eligibility.
The state now has 4,119,213 registered Democrats. Since March 24, the last day of eligibility for the primary election, the state has received 33,281 new Democratic registrations and 45,977 party changes to the Democratic Party. The secretary of state’s office is still accepting new registrations and party switches that were postmarked by the deadline.
State officials said the activity on the final day was intense, and these new numbers likely include large swaths of registrations that were collected by both the Obama and Clinton campaigns and submitted just before the deadline.
Since the first of the year, the state has received 101,499 new Democratic applications and 132,688 switches to the Democratic Party.
By contrast, the Republican Party in Pennsylvania now stands at 3,197,586 people. Only 32,191 citizens have joined the Republican roles and 13,937 have switched to the GOP since January 1.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Mark Murray
Obama is heavily favored in the May 6 North Carolina primary. And not surprisingly, the Clinton campaign has downplayed expectations there (just like Team Obama has downplayed expectations in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Kentucky).
But -- in a nod to the power of surrogates -- it's worth noting that the Clinton clan has visited the Tar Heel State more often than the Obama clan has since March 4.
Barack Obama -- 2 days, 3 total stops
Michelle Obama -- 0 days, 0 total stops
Hillary Clinton -- 1 day, 3 total stops
Bill Clinton -- 2 days, 9 total stops
Chelsea Clinton -- 2 days, 4 total stops
Last week, we alerted you to the possibility that Ebay CEO Meg Whitman was pondering a gov run in 2010 in California. Well, her opponent could very well be ... Jerry Brown. "Brown spoke at the state Democratic Party convention Saturday, and boy, did he sound an awful lot like a candidate for Golden State governor -- again. Eerie.”
“Brown, who served two terms as governor from 1975 to 1983 before term limits took effect, reminded his Democratic audience assembled in San Jose of some of his ‘highlights,’ like getting rid of former Gov. Ronald Reagan's bulletproof limousine and using a blue Plymouth from the state motor pool. Brown said he kept the Plymouth for eight years and put 240,000 miles on it, adding: ‘Now that's sustainability.’”
From NBC's Chuck Todd
So far, we haven't seen any indie expenditure groups pop up to attack Clinton or Obama from the right, but here's early evidence of some GOP money starting to flow into indie groups to help prop up key Senate and House Republicans.
This ad praises Minnesota's Norm Coleman (R) who faces a VERY expensive fight with Al Franken (D).
PENNSYLVANIA: From a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll: “The momentum in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary battle has shifted back to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who now leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 53 – 41 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a 49 – 43 percent Sen. Clinton lead in a February 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. In that survey, the momentum was with Sen. Obama who had narrowed a 52 – 36 percent gap from a February 14 poll.”
INDIANA: The Indianapolis Star notices all the attention the Clintons are lavishing on Indiana this week. "Obama was the first to appeal directly to Hoosiers for their votes this year, with a rally and town hall meeting Saturday in Plainfield. But if Clinton lost anything by arriving second, she’s making up for it in the attention she and her husband are paying the state this week. Her visits will include meeting with a small group of people at an as-yet-unidentified diner in Terre Haute, followed by a town hall meeting at the Anderson High School Wigwam gymnasium and a rally in Evansville. Complete details were not available Monday."
Clinton's chief Indiana surrogate, Evan Bayh, "conceded that Obama, from neighboring Illinois, has some built-in advantages in wooing Indiana voters. ‘He’ll outspend Sen. Clinton … he’s been doing that in other states.’ And, Bayh said, about 20 percent of Indiana households get their television news from Chicago stations, so they have been familiar with Obama since he won his Senate seat in 2004.”
Oy, here we go again? The new governor, David Paterson, and his wife admitted to extramarital affairs, hours after to being sworn in. For what they’re worth, these are rumors we heard about hours after it was clear he was going to be governor. The New York Daily News: "In a stunning revelation, both Paterson, 53, and his wife, Michelle, 46, acknowledged in a joint interview they each had intimate relationships with others during a rocky period in their marriage several years ago.”
“In the course of several interviews in the past few days, Paterson said he maintained a relationship for two or three years with ‘a woman other than my wife,’ beginning in 1999. As part of that relationship, Paterson said, he and the other woman sometimes stayed at an upper West Side hotel — the Days Inn at Broadway and W. 94th St. He said members of his Albany legislative staff often used the same hotel when they visit the city."
From NBC's Mark Murray
First Read has obtained a letter from Florida Democratic Party chair Karen Thurman, in which she says there won't be a re-vote in her state. This seems to mean: 1) that Florida's delegates won't be seated; 2) that they will, via a vote from the credentials committee; or 3) that there will be some sort of compromise (like counting delegates by half).
"Thousands of people responded. We spent the weekend reviewing your messages, and while your reasons vary widely, the consensus is clear: Florida doesn't want to vote again," Thurman writes. "So we won't."
"A party-run primary or caucus has been ruled out, and it's simply not possible for the state to hold another election, even if the Party were to pay for it. Republican Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio refuses to even consider that option. Florida is finally moving to paper ballots, which is a good thing, but it means that at least 15 counties do not have the capacity to handle a major election before the June 10th DNC primary deadline. This doesn't mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April."
Here's the full letter...
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PENNSYLVANIA: Some notes from NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger… The Clinton campaign opens its Allentown office Monday. It’s one of six in the state. No Clinton family members or key surrogates are expected in the state, making it the first in 10 days without a Clinton in Pennsylvania.
Obama will go to Philadelphia on Tuesday, but no details have been released. He’s holding a town hall Monday in Monaca (35 miles northwest of Pittsburgh) and speaking at the Society of Irish Women dinner in Scranton.
There’s only one more week for independents and Republicans to change their registration to Democratic for the primary. Already, more than 35,000 voters have changed their affiliation to vote in the primary since the beginning of the year, according to the Secretary of State’s office, and more than 80,000 new registrations have been completed. Obama aides circled the Philadelphia streets over the weekend, registering voters.
Putting Pennsylvania in perspective… Larry Eichel of the Philadelphia Inquirer suggests the Pennsylvania primary isn’t as all-important as many might think, especially if Florida and Michigan get to vote afterwards. “Analysts also have noticed that there will be more delegates at stake on May 6 when North Carolina and Indiana vote, 187, than the 158 available in Pennsylvania. Florida and Michigan account for 313.” The only way the state would matter is if Obama wins. “Such an outcome would undercut Clinton's oft-made argument that she is the preferred choice of the big states that dominate the Electoral College. For that reason, an Obama win would have a huge impact on the undeclared superdelegates, who hold the nomination in their hands.”
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