ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Democrats (RSS)

Reid: Crucial vote Saturday

Posted: Thursday, November 19, 2009 2:28 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid today said the crucial vote to bring the legislation to the floor will happen "sometime" Saturday. But he was uncertain he had to 60 votes required to start debate.

"We'll find out when the votes are taken," he said during a Q & A with reporters at a rally with supporters.

Assuming Reid can get the bill to the floor, he will face other 60 vote thresholds, including one for final passage. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) made it clear he will filibuster the final passage of a bill that contained any form of a public option.

Responding to a question about his thin margin for error, Reid said he's had recent conversation with Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, both from Maine.

CONTINUED >>

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Obama's last-minute health bill push

Posted: Wednesday, November 18, 2009 12:30 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , , ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
In what appears to be the administration making a a last-minute push to curry votes for health care, Vice President Joe Biden is up there lobbying as is former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.


Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, a former centrist U.S. Senator has also been spotted in the hallways, but he says he's just up there to see friends and that he's not really lobbying for health care.



But it's worth noting that Salazar is still friends with many of the key moderate senators whose votes will be crucial in defeating a potential Republican filibuster. Salazar said he was going to see his old friend Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor (D), for one.

He certainly picked an odd day to go to the Hill just to hang out, especially since Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is hoping for a vote as early as Friday.

CONTINUED >>

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SEN 2010: Biden to stump for Dodd

Posted: Tuesday, November 17, 2009 4:08 PM by firstread
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
A few weeks ago, First Read rated our Top 10 Senate races, in terms of the likelihood of switching parties. Here's our breakdown, again, with a look at the headlines from some of those battlegrounds' local papers:

  1. Connecticut (D)
  2. Nevada (D)
  3. Colorado (D)
  4. Missouri (R)
  5. New Hampshire (R)
  6. Ohio (R)
  7. Illinois (D)
  8. Louisiana (R)
  9. Pennsylvania (D)
  10. Kentucky (R)

CONNECTICUT: "In another measure of just how important U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd's fate is to the Democratic party, the embattled Connecticut senator is getting his third high-profile visit of the fall. Vice President Joseph Biden will come to Hartford on Dec. 11 for a lunchtime fundraiser for Dodd...Dodd, who is up for reelection in Nov. 2010, has been struggling in the polls. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week found that more than half of the state's voters disapprove of his job performance. And 53 percent said the 30-year incumbent doesn't deserve a another term in Washington." 
 
The Hartford Courant writes that despite his low name recognition, Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy (D) shouldn't be written off as a contender in the 2010 Connecticut governor's race. 

NEVADA: Politico on the GOP's allowing Doug Hampton, John Ensign's former lover's husband, to carry out his "one-man crusade" against Ensign: "By pressuring Ensign to resign, the GOP could face a distracting intraparty squabble just as it prepares to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) in what will very likely be the most contested race of the 2010 midterm elections. And after seeing the media frenzy from their unsuccessful efforts to push Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) from office after he was caught in a bathroom sex sting in 2007, GOP leaders believe it’s better to avoid commenting on the matter."  

CONTINUED >>

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House GOP bashes Dems

Posted: Tuesday, November 17, 2009 12:01 PM by firstread
Filed Under: , , , ,


From NBC's Wendy Jones
Four members of the House GOP Conference, engaged in a little Democrat-bashing this morning, criticizing President Obama's antiterrorism strategy and "Speaker Pelosi's" health care plan.

Minority Leader John Boehner (OH) criticized the Obama administration for not detailing an over-arching strategy to "fight terrorists and keep America safe." Said Boehner, "I spent last week travelling...and if there's one thing I heard out there it's that the Democrats in Washington are totally out of step" with America. He went on to criticize the Administration for its plan to bring Kahlid Sheik Mohammed to New York: "To come to the US is one issue...to be given the rights of US citizens is just awful."

He urged collegues to bring Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI)'s "Keep Terrorists out of America" legislation to the floor. The bill urges Congress to oppose transferring or releasing prisoners at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility to the United States.
CONTINUED >>

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Again, no CBO score for Reid's bill

Posted: Monday, November 16, 2009 1:07 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
According to a Senate leadership aide, it's highly unlikely Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have cost estimate today from the Congressional Budget Office for his health-care bill.

*** UPDATE *** USA Today:

Sen. Tom Harkin, chairman of the Senate health committee, told The Bill Press Show this morning that the health care debate "will start in earnest" Nov. 30, the Monday after Thanksgiving.

A vote to allow the debate to start likely will take place this Friday, but it won't be until after Thanksgiving that the Senate will entertain amendments, he said.

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Healthcare debate Tuesday?

Posted: Friday, November 13, 2009 4:33 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
If you read somewhere that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid could start the healthcare debate on Tuesday, here's the real deal: it's technically possible, but highly unlikely.

Reid says he'll bring the bill to the floor next week. But with the bill not even written and with no cost estimate for it from the Congressional Budget Office, that may seem like an overly optimistic view.

Just as important as CBO estimate and the bill language is the still-unresolved issue of whether Reid can muster the 60 votes he'll need to bring the bill to the floor.

But it's worth noting that Reid has taken a significant step that COULD start the debate on Tuesday if all the stars in the sky align.

On Tuesday of last week, before the Veterans Day recess, Reid started the procedural process to get the bill on the floor. (Avert your gaze here if you don't have the stomach for process.)

CONTINUED >>

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'America's most powerful senator'

Posted: Friday, November 13, 2009 3:02 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: , ,

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Harry Reid (D), the Senate majority leader, frames up the argument he'll make as Election Day 2010 nears -- (1) That he's "America's Most Powerful Senator", and (2) As a result, he has gotten lots done for the state.

An ad like this shows one  aspect of the difficulty in running against Reid -- that he'll spend LOTS of money and do whatever it takes. He's going to need to with his poll numbers being what they are.

The Nevada Senate race ranks as First Read's No. 2 Senate race to watch next year.

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The clock is ticking...

Posted: Thursday, November 12, 2009 3:39 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Congressional Budget Office score for the Senate health care bill won't come today and is likely next week.

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Pro-choice Dems fire back

Posted: Monday, November 09, 2009 1:59 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Bobby Cervantes
Some 41 pro-choice House Democrats have signed on to a letter headed to Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s desk that states their intention to vote against a conference committee report if the Stupak-Pitts anti-abortion amendment remains as is, according to a draft of the letter obtained by Greg Sargent.

The amendment, which the House passed by a 240-to-196 vote on Saturday, calmed some conservative anti-abortion Democrats who worried federal funding would be provided for abortions in the Democratic health-care bill that passed late Saturday night.



Video
Rep. Diana DeGette, D- Colo., explains why she supported the health reform bill, but threatened to block it beacuse of the anti-abortion amendment.

The letter:

CONTINUED >>

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The Senate waiting game

Posted: Monday, November 09, 2009 1:22 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate is waiting -- waiting for a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, and waiting for Majority Leader Harry Reid to line up 60 votes to just get the health-care bill on the floor. The CBO numbers could come this later this week, according to Reid's office. But getting those 60 votes is still a big unknown.

Here's what we're watching for this week:
-- "When and how will Reid get 60 votes?" Centrist Democrats Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln are still noncommittal in supporting Reid's effort to get the bill on the floor. Unless Reid can find a way to get them on board -- change the bill, address their concerns, or presidential persuasion -- the bill can't get on the floor.
 
-- "Will Reid have a bill before Christmas (or Hanukkah or Kwanzaa)?" A cursory look at the calendar shows it's a tall order. But here's the sleeper issue: the CBO. When Democrats say they've sent the measure to the CBO for the cost estimate, they didn't send "a bill." They sent elements of a bill that include the public option/opt-out. This means if they get numbers back from the CBO this week, there's still work to do before it goes to the floor.



Video
: Politico's Craig Gordon discusses a tentative schedule as to when a health reform bill may be passed.



Reid will still have to pull those separate elements together to write "the bill." And he might even have to send "the bill" back to CBO for another score. (What might seem like little tweaks around the edges can change the cost by billions.) And if Reid still doesn't have 60 votes, he may have to rewrite the bill. Last week, Landrieu told reporters that Olympia Snowe's trigger was still in play -- at least for her.

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