Democrats
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
National Journal’s Linda Douglass sat for an interview with undeclared South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn. He says a couple of interesting things: (a) If Clinton believes Obama will do poorly with white voters in November, based on how he has done in the primaries, does that mean she believes she will only get 8% of the black vote in November, based on how she’s doing now?; And (b) He makes it very clear that any perceived backroom deal had better not take the nomination away from Obama, because that would devastate young people and blacks. He speaks rather emotionally about his daughter and grandson’s support for Obama.
Here's a portion of that interview:
DOUGLASS: …Hillary Clinton has been continuing to campaign today, yesterday, throughout West Virginia and the other states that she is seeking to win, making the argument that she wins with certain kinds of voters -- blue collar voters, Catholic voters, and Obama does not. Do you think that as she continues to press the case that he can't win, that she's doing damage to him as a candidate?
CLYBURN: Continuing to press the case seems to me to be in search of a self-fulfilling prophecy here. You know, we all know anything that continues to be reinforced in the minds of voters, tends to take on a life of its own. I would hope, as I have said before, that the candidates will continue to press their case on their own behalf. …
LD: ...She was quoted today in USA Today describing her strengths against his weaknesses, and she said about herself, quoting from a news article, she was talking about a news article, but Senator Clinton said the following -- that Senator Obama's support among working, hard working Americans, white Americans is weakening again. And whites in both states who have not completed college were supporting me. There is a pattern emerging here, she said. What's your reaction to that quote?
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UPCOMING CONTESTS: WV uphill for Obama
USA Today previews the West Virginia primary and notes the uphill battle for Obama there. "In West Virginia, Gov. Joe Manchin says ‘you drive to survive’ and the gas price spike has hit particularly hard. ‘It's hard to drive from here to Huntington when gas is $4 a gallon and you're getting paid minimum wage,’ says Wayne Mayor Junior Ramey.”
“This state of small towns is home to the gun-owning, church-going, financially struggling voters whom Hillary Rodham Clinton is targeting Tuesday. She says Obama alienated them with his remark before the Pennsylvania primary last month about ‘bitter’ dislocated workers in small towns ‘clinging’ to guns and religion." More: "Demanding that a presidential entourage make it up the tricky switchback roads that lead to this town of 1,144 isn't as farfetched as it seems. No Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916, and at least one made it to Wayne."
"Clinton has been running well ahead of Obama in several West Virginia polls. The state's older, mostly white and blue-collar population hits the dynamics of Clinton supporters. Pat Maroney, a former state Democratic Party chairman and the party's national committeeman, said victory for Clinton is still possible. ‘Yes, I think she probably can [still win]," he said at the morning rally. "[The extended presidential battle] has been good for the country and the state to have this kind of dialogue.’”
From NBC's Mark Murray
In her interview with TODAY's Ann Curry, Cindy McCain stated that she would not release her tax returns -- even if she becomes first lady.
The Democratic National Committee has decided to jump on this, noting how Cindy McCain's wealth has benefited her husband's political career. For example, John McCain -- when his campaign was struggling with money -- was able to use a corporate jet (at a lower cost) owned by a private company headed by Cindy.
"John McCain may not like it, but the American people have a right to know about the well documented links between his political career and the McCains' business ventures," DNC chairman Howard Dean said in a statement. "John McCain's refusal to meet the standard of every other candidate seeking the office is one more reason he's the wrong choice for America's future."
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
Been talking to several House Democrats a.k.a. superdelegates this day. Bottom line: things are, for the most part, status quo in terms of commitments, at least for the time being.
Clinton has asked several uncommitteds to come meet with her this evening at around 8 or 8:30, after votes on the housing bill now being considered on the House floor. Location TBD. I talked to three such members, who said that they are going to take a pass, simply because they have heard several times from both candidates personally over the course of the past week, and there is nothing more to be said.
Another uncommitted said he was going to go out of a sense of courtesy. Keep in mind that these folks are inundated with calls from the respective campaigns and that, for the Clinton side, operatives like Harold Ickes come up every Wednesday to talk to people privately.
Another uncommitted said his office received a call from the Obama campaign asking for a meet tomorrow. Per NBC’s Mark Hudspeth, Obama will indeed be in DC tomorrow.
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Compare Clinton today to Huckabee in February, and it's worth noting the similarities as this continues. Similar statements on math and notice GOP operative saying it's OK for Huckabee to stay in the race, "as long as Mike Huckabee stays positive."
But, it must be pointed out, that Clinton still has a FAR greater claim to this nomination than Mike Huckabee ever did, which is why Huckabee's hanging on became the stuff of Saturday Night Live. Just pointing out some similar language...
(1) CLINTON (today at West Virginia news conference):
QUESTION: Does your statement today mean that you intend to stay in this race through the vote on the convention floor?
CLINTON: Well, I'm staying in this race until there's a nominee. And I obviously am going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee. That is what I've done; that's what I'm continuing to do.
I believe that I'm the stronger candidate against Senator McCain. And I believe I would be the best president among the three of us running. So we will continue to contest these elections and move forward.
(2) HUCKABEE ON STAYING IN THE RACE
FEB. 12 (CNN): "As long as my guys are still waving their pompoms, I think we're going to stay on the field. The goal is still to win ... Everybody keeps talking about, 'Well, the math doesn't work.' We don't know what is going to happen. You don't just throw people's votes out and say, 'Well, we're not going to bother counting them because we kind of think we know where this was going."
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At one point in the evening, Clinton held a double-digit lead in Indiana, but that was without Marion County where Indianapolis is. As the 170,000-plus votes in Marion county came trickling in, Clinton’s lead dropped and dropped and dropped -- to the point where now the New York senator’s lead stands at 4 percentage points or about 39,000 votes. Obama’s Marion advantage (67%-33%) won’t likely cut much more into the lead, and there are still portions of Clinton counties still out. But there is still the entire county of Lake (about 400,000 population), which contains Gary, Ind., a 100,000-person town in the Chicago media market with an 84% black population.
Clinton, however, has done very well, 58%-42%, in neighboring Porter County -- also in the Chicago media market. Porter is 95% white. Did the heavy local coverage of Wright have an effect here?
Also out, however, still is Monroe County where Bloomington is. Bloomington is home to Indiana University, somewhere that should be an Obama stronghold. There’s only 24% out in Monroe.
It’s not clear there are enough votes available for Obama to actually overtake Clinton, but it might be right around that Chuck Todd Vegas field goal. Any bets?
NBC News now says the Indiana Democratic primary is too close to call.
NBC News characterizes Indiana's Democratic primary as too early to call
From NBC's Mike ViqueiraHouse Democrats today announced that they will vote to send
President Bush and his successor $184 billion to spend on the war, plus a couple of other items that are politically popular but have not been requested by the president and may be veto bait.
The "emergency" package, to be considered on Thursday of this week, gives the president much of the $108 billion that has asked for the remainder of this year, plus $66 billion that would sustain the war effort into the first months of a new administration.
But the House will also be voting on an extension of unemployment benefits, the establishment of a new GI Bill for educating veterans, $500 million more in international food aid, and money for Louisiana levees. These items will be hard for many Republicans to oppose, though the president has not asked for any of it to be included in the war spending package.
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From NBC's Robert WindremHillary
Clinton has pledged to “obliterate” Iran if it strikes Israel with nuclear weapons (it doesn't yet have). Iran has protested the Democratic presidential candidate's fiery rhetoric as a violation of the UN Charter and asked for Security Council action. Sen. Barack
Obama has condemned Senator Clinton's statement.
All the sturm and drang misses one critical point.
Israel does not need the US to counter attack. Israel has the world's sixth largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, behind only the US, Russia, China, the UK and (maybe) France. It can handle ANY Iranian threat on its own, thank you very much.
The U.S. estimates Israel has about 200 nuclear weapons made up of five different classes of weapons. Israel assembled its first two bombs on the night of Nov. 2, 1966. In the Six-Day War, it had two weapons on alert; by the Yom Kippur War in 1973, 20 were on alert; by the Gulf War, the number had reached more than 200.
There are thermonuclear missile warheads on missiles with intercontinental (Jericho II) and intermediate (Jericho I) range, nuclear landmines, artillery shells and neutron bombs to stop assaults across their vulnerable borders, aerial bombs attached to American-made F-15's dispersed and on alert. It has a nuclear target base of nearly 100 targets, which, like the US base, is continually updated and which, like the US, can be updated in near real time. And it has an entire wing of its Air Force, the secret 2nd Wing, to manage it all.
More importantly, Israel has a second strike capability, that is, a capability of striking any enemy even if that enemy has already destroyed Tel Aviv. A single nuclear weapon might able to take out most of the Israeli population, which lives around Tel Aviv, but Israel has enough capability to deliver a society-smashing blow on Iran within hours. Iran would be triumphant, and then incapable of functioning as a society, in very short order.
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