Economy
From NBC's Ken Strickland Clinton's and McCain's separate proposals for suspending the gas tax this summer will very likely run out of gas shortly after hitting the Senate floor later this month. Because it takes 60 votes to pass any controversial bill in the Senate, McCain and Clinton will easily fall short. Democrats would loath to support virtually any proposal from the presumptive Republican nominee, and support for Clinton's measure is lukewarm among her own Democratic colleagues.
When Democratic leaders unveil their energy/gas price legislation later this week, Clinton's provision is NOT expected to be part of it. Why? Since Obama is against the Clinton plan, leadership doesn't want play favorites. Instead, Clinton will likely get a chance to offer her proposal as an amendment. Equally notable is the divide among Senate Democrats -- and the leadership itself -- over whether suspending the tax makes economic sense. A perfect example is Sen. Patty Murray, a Senate leader and Clinton supporter, but who opposes the gas-tax holiday.
As for McCain's plan, GOP leaders didn't include it in their energy bill when they introduced it last week, saying instead it focuses is on oil production. But even if all 49 GOP senators faithfully lined up behind McCain to support it, they'd need more than a handful of wayward Democrats to reach what would likely be the 60 vote threshold for passage.
Then there's the windfall profit tax idea, which Clinton and Obama both support. Well, it's is running on fumes, too. The last time a similar measure came up in November 2005, it couldn't even draw in 40 Democratic votes. While gas prices have increased dramatically since then, you'd be hard pressed to find 20 Republicans who'd vote with Clinton and Obama on almost anything.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The script...Announcer: "More 'low road' attacks from Hillary Clinton…Now she’s pushing a 'bogus' gas tax gimmick… Experts say it’ll just 'boost oil industry profits'... They’ll 'simply raise prices and pocket … the difference.' Clinton aides admit it won’t do much for you – but would help her politically. So here’s the choice…Clinton gimmicks that help big oil… Or Barack Obama… a real energy plan and a $1,000 middle class tax cut to help families truly pay the bills."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Bill Clinton town hall Saturday evening, I stopped at Family Express (a local Indiana chain) to fill up my tank to the tune of $3.69 a gallon. I patted myself on the back for finding a bargain. It costs about sixty dollars give or take to fill up the little Mazda rental car I've used to zip across this state, logging anywhere between 100 to 400 miles a day. The least amount I've paid for gas is about $3.63. The most? $3.77 on I-65 heading south into Louisville.
While the meter on the pump was whizzing upward, I went inside to buy a cup of coffee. And as I headed to the counter to pay, a man slipped in front of me. He was older than me, maybe in his late forties, and he wore faded loose blue jeans, a black and white windbreaker, and sneakers. He had the only other car at the station, a little red sedan. He came forward to the clerk, and said, "I'm sorry to have to do this to you."
And he plunged his hands into the pockets of his jeans and pulled out fistfuls of change, which he unceremoniously dumped on the counter. Pennies, nickels, quarters -- you name it -- was there. The clerk was mad and grumbled something like, "Come on." The man just looked out the window at his car and asked to pre-pay for $5 of gasoline. Five bucks at this station gets you less than a gallon and a half of fuel.
Now obviously, I know nothing about this man. As a reporter, I didn't chase after him asking if he was hard up and was this the only way he could pay to fill his tank. But the image of him pouring change onto the counter struck a chord. Maybe it's because my parents used to drive eight to ten miles out of the way just to save five cents on a gallon of gas. Or maybe because I haven't had one conversation with my mom in recent months, where she doesn't mention how expensive it is to drive somewhere. A few years ago she decided to splurge on an SUV and deeply regrets the decision. I have a feeling she's not alone.
To bring this back to politics, watching this man in the gas station, thinking about my own parents, I finally understood why a gas tax holiday could be so appealing: If all you've got is change to pay with, then 18 cents might make a difference.
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From NBC's Mark Murray Obama -- playing the outsider card -- criticized the Clinton's and McCain's plan for a gas-tax holiday. "Now, the two Washington candidates in the race have been attacking me because I don't support their idea," he said today, per advanced remarks. "In fact, yesterday Senator Clinton demanded that everyone go on the record on this issue. She even borrowed one of President Bush's favorite phrases, and said that every member of Congress had to tell her -- 'are they with us or against us?'"
"Well, folks have been weighing in. And you know what? It turns out that people want to be on the side of the American people -- they don't want to be for something that is such an obvious election year gimmick; they don't want to line up behind an idea that's more about trying to get a few votes than getting you meaningful relief."
More: "Senator Clinton does have some support for her plan in Congress. After all, the person who first proposed it was John McCain. So I guess when she says 'are you with us or against us' -- Senator Clinton is referring to her and John McCain. That's one vote she's got, because on this issue, Hillary Clinton and John McCain are reading from the same political playbook."
Also, here's a new TV on this subject the Obama campaign is airing in Indiana:
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC's Mark Murray Obama for not supporting a gas-tax holiday, while also noting that he supported a state one while in the Illinois legislature.
But it's worth pointing out that Obama -- while voting for that gas-tax holiday in Illinois -- later voted AGAINST a state measure extending it. As PolitiFact put it, "[I]t's not fair to call it a flip-flop when the very reason Obama opposes a suspension of the gas tax now is because he concluded that it didn't work when he supported one in the past."
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Lauren Appelbaum, and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton is still plowing ahead.
She just told a town meeting in Indiana, "I think we should have a gas tax holiday and pay for it" by taxing oil company "windfall" profits. McCain also supports a gas tax holiday (although wants to pay for it through general revenues), while Obama doesn't.
Clinton added, "You know, Sen. Obama says we shouldn't do it and it's gimmick. And Sen. McCain says we should do it but shouldn't pay for it. I sometimes feel like the Goldilocks of this campaign. Not too much, not too little, just right. And I think we should have a gas tax holiday and pay for it."
She also tried to rebut critics by saying that it's easy for people who can afford to pay to criticize.
Meanwhile, Obama once again stated his opposition to such a holiday while also campaigning in Indiana. "This isn’t a real solution. This is a gimmick," he said. "And this is what Washington does whenever there’s a big problem. They pretend that they’re solving it to try to get though a political season but they don’t really solve it. And unfortunately, after John McCain made the proposal ,I guess Sen. Clinton thought it was gonna poll well, so she said, 'Me too, I’ll do the same thing.’ and so now it’s the McCain-Clinton proposal to suspend the gas tax.
He then said, "You know people are more concerned about looking good for the cameras and for politics than they are at actually solving problems. You remember when George Bush five years ago put up a big sign in front of an aircraft carrier saying ‘Mission accomplished’ in Iraq. I’m sure they thought that was good politics. Except five years later we’re still in this war in Iraq."
From NBC's Mark Murray We are releasing some early numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which comes out tomorrow night.
The numbers? Only 21% approve of President Bush's job in handling the economy -- his lowest number ever as president on that question.
Also, a whopping 81% believe the US is currently in a recession.
Interested in the latest numbers in the Obama -Clinton race? Want to know how both stack up against McCain ? Or curious about which party -- Democratic or Republican -- holds the advantage heading into November? Tune into Nightly News, or click onto MSNBC.com, at 6:30 pm ET tomorrow.
From NBC's Mark Murray McCain's strongest economic credentials is his reputation as a anti-pork crusader. "I have a clear record of not asking for earmarks for my state," he said in his economic speech today. "For their part, Senators Obama and Clinton have championed a long list of pork-barrel projects for their states... That kind of careless spending of tax dollars is not change, my friends: It is business as usual in Washington, and it's all a part of the same wasteful and corrupting system that we need to end."
But Democrats are now circulating oppo on McCain to put a dent in those credentials. Here's a campaign ad from 2000 -- given to First Read -- in which McCain touts the work by then-US Sen. Spence Abraham (R) in securing money for Michigan in the 1998 highway bill. (Abraham ended up losing that 2000 Senate contest to Debbie Stabenow.)
The hitch here: McCain didn't support the 1998 highway bill (he didn't vote ). "I did not support or sign the conference report on H.R. 2400 for one simple reason -- pork," he said in '98, referring to the highway legislation.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy McCain spoke at Carnegie Mellon University here this morning and laid out his plan for the future of the economy.
The plan is centered around a one-year freeze in discretionary spending -- with the exception of military and veterans programs -- to allow for a “top-to-bottom review of the effectiveness of federal programs.”
“‘Discretionary spending’ is a term people throw around a lot in Washington, while actual discretion is seldom exercised,” McCain said. “Instead, every program comes with a built-in assumption that it should go on forever, and its budget increase forever. My administration will change that way of thinking.”
Beyond that, McCain’s plan is an interesting mix of spending reductions and targeted federal assistance programs, including an expansion of the “lender-of-last-resort” capabilities of states and the federal government to ensure that student loans aren’t affected by the current credit crisis. This would be accompanied by tax cuts for parents in the form of a gradual doubling of the personal exemption for dependants.
*** UPDATE *** President Bush's fiscal policies (for championing tax cuts favoring the rich, not paying for the tax cuts, and favoring an open-ended military engagement in Iraq).
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From NBC's Mark Murray McCain's call to suspend the 18.4-cent gas tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day also potentially dries up funding to use to pay for highway/public transportation infrastructure.
The 18.4-cent gas tax goes into a Highway Trust Fund, which pays for roads, bridges, subways, etc. So there's a legitimate policy question here: If you suspend that tax, what are you doing to an already-deteriorating infrastructure system? (After all, remember that bridge collapse in Minneapolis/St. Paul, where interestingly the GOP convention takes place in September.)
VIDEO: Presidential candidate John McCain talks to CNBC’s John Harwood about his economic plan. The
Wall Street Journal's Stephen Power also raises this question about suspending the gas tax: "Relief — or fewer jobs? According to a white paper circulated on Capitol Hill last week by the U.S. Transportation Department, every $1 billion of federal highway investment supports 34,779 jobs. Many economists have also questioned the wisdom of suspending or cutting gas taxes; doing so, they say, simply stimulates more consumption of gasoline."
Asked for a response, McCain spokesman Brian Rogers emails First Read, "Sen. McCain believes that general revenue transfers should be made to offset the impact on the transportation fund." *** UPDATE ***
