Primaries
News on the early primaries
With 100% of precincts reporting, Clinton beat Obama last night, 67%-26%; Edwards, who left the race several months ago, got as much as 7% of the vote.
The front page of the Boston Globe: “Clinton crushes Obama in W.Va.” “While her win does not change the dynamics of the race, the margin -- Clinton led Obama 67 percent to 26 percent with 92 percent of precincts reporting last night - was striking given that much of the Democratic political establishment has already coalesced behind Obama as the party's nominee.
The New York Times says that “racial considerations emerged as an unusually salient factor” in last night’s primary. “The number of white Democratic voters who said race had influenced their choices on Tuesday was among the highest recorded in voter surveys in the nomination fight. Two in 10 white West Virginia voters said race was an important factor in their votes. More than 8 in 10 who said it factored in their votes backed Mrs. Clinton, according to exit polls.”
More: “According to the West Virginia surveys, 95 percent of the Democratic primary voters were white, 70 percent did not graduate from college, and 54 percent had household incomes less than $50,000.”
The AP’s analysis: “At Obama's Chicago headquarters, advisers said there was no reason to worry — West Virginia was demographically suited to Clinton and won't be part of their general election plans. It's also true that Clinton's win is unlikely to slow his march toward the nomination — Obama picked up 30 superdelegates this week, more than the 28 total pledged delegates up for grabs in West Virginia. But maybe the Obama camp should be more worried. The voters who went against Obama Tuesday night — white, rural, older, low-income and without college degrees — don't just live in West Virginia. They live everywhere in the country, in places Obama needs to win.”
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NBC News declares
Hillary Clinton the projected winner in West Virginia's Democratic primary. She leads in the exit poll by a 2-to-1 margin.
From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell, Adam Verdugo and Barbara Bernhard
West Virginia is one of the poorest states. It ranks 48th out of 50. The downturn in the economy has had a tangible effect for residents of the Mountain State. Eighty-eight percent of the Democratic primary voters today say the recession has had a negative impact on their families. Only 11% say it’s had little or no effect.
The average income is $38,000 a year and, even though the state has some of the lowest gas prices in the country, the pain at the pump is still very real. Voters like Hillary Clinton's proposal of a federal gas tax holiday. Almost two-thirds of voters say the tax holiday is a good idea. Only a third did not like the plan.
Seven-in-10 Clinton voters support her idea to suspend the gas tax for the summer. Obama opposes the plan, often calling it a "gimmick," and a little more than half his voters agreed.
NBC's AnaMaria Arumi adds that West Virginia is a state slow to change, and one where the “new economy” has hardly made an impact. One national organization that ranks state economies based on the technology, innovation, and other resources that help fuel job growth rated West Virginia dead last.
According to the exit polls, the economy is considered the No. 1 by a 64% majority of voters in the West Virginia Democratic primary. The current economic slowdown appears to have taken a heavy toll in the Mountain State that tends to struggle even in good times.
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From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign has issued its own West Virginia memo, which makes three points: 1) Clinton is going to win West Virginia BIG; 2) Obama has already picked up more superdelegates in the last week than Clinton will gain from West Virginia; and 3) look at the crosstabs in national polls, not the exit polls, to see how Obama might fare against McCain in a national election.
Below is the memo...
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From NBC's Mark Murray
Hours before the West Virginia polls close, the Clinton campaign just released a memo that tries to raise the stakes of today's contest, which Clinton is expected to win by a considerable margin. "Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary's candidacy," the memo says.
More: "In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today's outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices. He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia-Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State."
Below is the full memo...
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The Charleston (WV) Gazette covered both candidates’ campaign stops in the state yesterday. “As her weeklong tour of West Virginia drew to a close Monday, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton told her supporters that she needs their votes in today's primary if she's going to be the next president. ‘I'm going to work as hard as I can until the polls close tomorrow,’ she told several hundred people at Logan High School Monday afternoon. ‘This going to be a crucial turning point in the election, If you stand up for me [today], I will stand up for you every single day [in the White House].’”
The Los Angeles Times: "Clinton is expected to trounce Obama in West Virginia tonight, after which she'll doubtless bound onto a stage in Charleston to roaring cheers, bobbing signs and a sea of hats. It is sure to look like a victory in every sense, except one: Few people believe that a Clinton victory here would alter the arithmetic that seems to be guiding Obama to their party's presidential nomination.”
So what does Clinton want from West Virginia and the remaining contests? The New York Times attempts to answer that question. "[S]he and her chief political counselor, her husband, see the two coming primaries as crucial to strengthening her standing and, if it comes to it, to allowing her to leave the race on a high note, the advisers say. Sizable victories -- the Clinton camp believes it could win West Virginia by 25 points or more -- might put pressure on Mr. Obama to agree to her demands to seat the disputed delegates from Michigan and Florida, some of her advisers say, which would let her claim a victory on a battle she has fought for months. Accumulating victories this late in the primary season -- as Mr. Obama looks so strong -- might also bolster a bid for the vice presidency, should she decide to seek it. (Whether Mr. Obama would ask her, however, is very much in doubt.)"
The Charleston Gazette endorsed Obama. “Political leaders who opposed the Iraq invasion and the ongoing 5-year-old war have also been outspoken in demanding more money to help veterans - money to help pay for college educations and money to care for their injuries. Ironically, leaders backing the disastrous war often seem far less interested in healing the physical, mental and psychological wounds that will haunt so many soldiers during the rest of their lives. Obama offers West Virginia and the nation hard work, intelligence and wisdom. His inclusive, uplifting way of communicating with people of all backgrounds will help restore the United States' place in the minds of people around the world, and here at home.”
Obama also wrote an op-ed in the paper. “West Virginia knows we need less tough talk and more sound judgment on national security. We can't afford the same politics of fear that tells Democrats that the only way to look tough is to talk, act, and vote like George Bush and John McCain. When I am president, I will end a war in Iraq that I opposed from the start, give our troops and military families the support they have earned, and finish the fight in Afghanistan.”
WEST VIRGINIA: The AP previews the primary and notes, "The excitement is showing at the ballot box as well. Even before the final day of early voting Saturday, Secretary of State Betty Ireland reported that a record 49,892 West Virginians had cast ballots."
The
New York Times covers Clinton stumping in West Virginia yesterday. “On Mother’s Day, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton was not served breakfast in bed. She did not go to a fancy lunch, or get to be queen for a day. Instead, she rose early and spent a 16-hour day slogging through a cold rain in West Virginia, the next state on her to-do list… The Mother’s Day weekend afforded the former first lady, accompanied by her daughter, Chelsea, the chance to remind voters of her unique qualifications in this election — not just as a woman, but as a mother. That she is a mother, with such an obvious bond with her daughter, both humanizes her and signals to women that she understands their concerns, their pressures — and their pride.”
It may be late, but Clinton is once again trying to turn her candidacy into a movement with women. Per NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli, Clinton closed her West Virginia event yesterday by reading an email she received. “Happy Mother’s Day,” the woman wrote to Clinton. “Hopefully I’ll be wishing you one next year as president. You have already succeeded at the world’s hardest job, being a mother. The second hardest job should be a breeze for you.”
KENTUCKY: A new Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT-TV/Research 2000 poll has Clinton leading in Kentucky, 58%-31%.
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The Washington Post does the "Rush Limbaugh" effect story. The Obama campaign is fanning these flames, and many Dems appear to be buying it. "Even if Limbaugh's exhortations brought as many of his listeners to the polls as he says, his operation did not cripple Obama, who emerged stronger from the day's primaries after better-than-expected showings with some key groups of voters. Those looking for evidence of Limbaugh's influence pointed to Clinton's edge among Republicans in Indiana and North Carolina. In Indiana, 10 percent of Democratic primary voters described themselves as Republicans, a higher rate than in any state but Mississippi, and they went for Clinton by eight percentage points, according to exit polls. In North Carolina, they were 5 percent of the electorate, and went for her by 29 points.”
“By contrast, Obama won Republican voters, often by very large margins, in seven of the eight states where exit polls were able to report the group before the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4, when Limbaugh first coaxed listeners to vote for Clinton.”
“Also notable was that in Indiana, six in 10 Republicans who supported Clinton on Tuesday said they would vote for presumptive GOP nominee John McCain over Clinton in the fall, if that were the matchup. By contrast, most Republicans who voted for Obama said they would back him against McCain. And a slight majority of Republicans who voted for Clinton in Indiana told pollsters that she does not share their values, raising further questions about why they supported her.”
“But at least as much data suggested that many Republicans voted for Clinton because the Democratic primary was the more meaningful one and because they simply preferred her to Obama. In Indiana, about nine in 10 GOP Clinton voters said she would make a better commander in chief, and more than six in 10 said she would have a better shot at beating McCain."
The Wall Street Journal looks at how Obama nearly won Indiana. One reason, it found, was his improvement among Catholics.
With 99% of precincts reporting, Obama easily won North Carolina, 56%-42%. And with 99% of precincts reporting in Indiana, Clinton won that state, 51%-49%.
Here’s the challenge for the Clinton campaign: More people right now believe the Washington Post’s headline versus the LA Times’.
The L.A. Times: "Obama takes North Carolina; Clinton wins Indiana." Subhead: "He remains well-positioned to win the nomination, but has not mustered the strength to finish off his rival."
The Washington Post’s: "Obama Is Decisive Winner in N.C.; Clinton Ekes Out Victory in Indiana" Subhead: "Former First Lady Vows to Continue Despite a Widening Delegate Gap"
The Washington Post piece notes that Obama “scored a landslide victory in North Carolina's Democratic presidential primary yesterday, moving him ever closer to locking up an insurmountable lead among pledged delegates, while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton posted a razor-thin win in the hotly contested Indiana primary as she sought to keep her shaky candidacy for the nomination alive… The twin results solidified the status quo in the Democratic race, one that now gives Obama the clear advantage in the battle for the nomination because of his solid lead in the tally of pledged delegates. Despite her Indiana victory, Clinton emerged even more the underdog in the nomination battle.”
The New York Times: “The results from the two primaries, the largest remaining Democratic ones, assured that Mr. Obama would widen his lead in pledged delegates over Mrs. Clinton, providing him with new ammunition as he seeks to persuade Democratic leaders to coalesce around his campaign. He also increased his lead in the popular vote in winning North Carolina by more than 200,000 votes.” More: “In winning North Carolina by 14 percentage points, Mr. Obama … recorded his first primary victory in nearly two months. His campaign was preparing to open a new front in his battle with Mrs. Clinton, intensifying the argument to uncommitted Democratic superdelegates that he weathered a storm and that the time was dawning for the party to concentrate on the general election.”
The Boston Globe calls Obama’s North Carolina “decisive.” “Obama moved closer to clinching the Democratic nomination, adding to his increasingly strong advantage in pledged delegates and in the overall popular vote with just six contests remaining over the next month -- and none likely to radically reshape the race.”
Obama at his victory speech, per the New York Daily News. “‘Many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided - that Sen. Clinton's supporters will not support me, and that my supporters would not support her,’ Obama said Tuesday night in his North Carolina victory speech. ‘I'm here tonight to tell you that I don't believe it.’ Before an ebullient crowd of thousands at North Carolina State University, Obama appeared to shift into general election campaign mode.”
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
INDIANAPOLIS -- The crowd came to the Murat Centre tonight to hear Hillary Clinton give a victory speech tonight. They got that -- but they also got a fundraising appeal.
Sure enough, Clinton did claim victory, referring to Obama’s own words in saying, “We’ve broken the tie,” and that it’s “full speed on to the White House." But then came the money pitch. “This has always been your campaign and this is your victory, because your support has meant the difference between winning and losing,” she said. “We can only keep winning if we’re able to keep competing against an opponent who does outspend us.”
She then asked supporters to visit her Web site, where visitors are greeted now with a message on the front page that asks supporter to donate $5.
Asked if this was a victory speech or a fundraising appeal, one spokesperson responded: “The two go hand in hand.”
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