Iowa
News from Iowa
From NBC's Ron Allen
"Well, we won the silver." That was Mitt Romney putting a good face on what has to be a disappointing and very, very expensive night.
Romney was drawing on his experience running the Salt Lake City Olympic Games of 2002. He rescued that grand event from a corruption scandal. But he couldn't save his Iowa campaign from a once little known Baptist minister who's burst onto the national stage in recent weeks.
Romney congratulated Mike Huckabee, who probably sees this as a David and Goliath story, while Romney's aides pointed out that Huckabee was a "unique fit," with Iowa's Christian Conservative community. Some 60 percent of GOP caucusers said they belonged to the religious right, a group Romney courted, but apparently didn't connect with, perhaps because of his Mormon faith, perhaps because of the enduring charge that Romney's a flip-flopper on some hugely significant issues, or for other reasons Romney will probably roll around in his head as the race moves to New Hampshire.
For Romney, its a night to look on the bright side. They way he sees it, he's come a long way the past year from obscurity, an unknown governor from a blue state up against big-name competitors like McCain, Thompson and Giuliani. "We beat them all," he said.
CONTINUED >>
The Giuliani campaign released the following from Campaign Manager Michael DuHaime: "We congratulate Mike Huckabee on a hard-fought victory in Iowa. This race is wide open and we will continue to run a national primary campaign designed to win the number of delegates necessary to become the Republican nominee. Rudy is the only Republican candidate who can not only win the primary and general elections, but will turn purple states red."
From NBC's Matthew E. Berger
MIAMI -- Giuliani campaign officials seemed to be enjoying Huckabee’s victory in Iowa Thursday, mostly because it wasn’t Romney picking up the prize.
The Giuliani campaign has always seen Romney as its most viable opponent, and the one most likely to campaign negatively against a challenger. So there seemed to be some excitement that Romney was being taken down a peg Thursday, and the fact that Huckabee was the victor was secondary.
Giuliani told Chris Matthews that Huckabee had run a “very positive” campaign, a slight swipe at Romney. He also said the campaign didn’t expect to win in Iowa.
CONTINUED >>
NBC News reports while in the initial preference race, Obama holds a lead, there is a virtual three-way tie so far in the race for state delegate equivalents in the Democratic Iowa Caucus.
NBC News reports based upon entrance poll and early precinct results, Huckabee is leading Romney in the Republican straw poll. On the Democratic side, the entrance poll and precinct results show Obama with a lead. Clinton and Edwards are vying for second.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
In an unusual expression of faith at a political party headquarters, supporters are standing in circles, holding hands and offering prayers in the middle of the Huckabee ballroom. They appear to be families with adults and children standing together. This is happening amid the piped in rock music, media standups and giant screen coverage.
We are shooting tape. Lots of still cameras buzzing around the group too.
We'll find out who they are when they're finished praying.
NBC Freelance Producer Mike Sulzberger reports he is caucusing at the City Hall in Ames, Iowa (corner of 5th and Grand) and anecdotely says that the place is packed. It is a Democratic caucus site. This is his first caucus, but his neighbor has caucused at this location before and says there are a great deal more people there in comparison to the 2004 turnout. Much like at location that where David Gregory is, people were lined up outside the door way past the official start time of the caucus.
He adds: 400 exactly here. Need to have 60 to be viable. Rough look says Dodd, Biden, won't be viable. Kucinich probably won't. Richardson and Edwards have no clear line between them, but Richardson looks viable. Looks like Obama has most here, Edwards a close second, but again, tough to tell where Richardson and Edwards divide. Biggest surprise here looks like Hillary. Not a large group for her -- guessing less than 20%.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Welcome to Westridge Elementary School in West Des Moines, Iowa. The noisy halls of Westridge are currently abuzz with the opening acts of not one but three caucuses -- two Democratic precincts (#214, in the school library and #315, in the cafeteria) and one Republican precinct (#214, in the gymnasium) are convening here tonight.
The hallways here are crowded with voters, many of whom have flattened the new registration paperwork up against the tile walls to fill it out. New registers -- and there are many of them -- are peppering the precinct captains with questions about how to register and where to go.
Of six Democrats I've talked to so far, four are first time caucus-goers. In fact, the precinct captain just came in to announce that he needed more pens -- the influx of newbies filling out paperwork are making writing utensils come in short supply.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Now that Iowa caucuses are finally here, just how much was spent on TV ads in the state? The answer, at least to us, is astounding.
According to various campaign sources, the Democratic and Republican candidates and various interest groups have spent more than $50 million in TV ads here in Iowa this year. That is more than five times the amount from 2004, when a combined $9.1 million was spent in the state.
Obama (more than $9.5 million) has spent the most among all the candidates -- followed by Clinton (more than $7.5 million), Romney ($7 million-plus), Edwards ($4 million), and Huckabee ($1.4 million).
And consider this: The three top-tier Dems have spent a total of $21 million -- or $140 a vote based on 150,000 turnout. Or this: Based on 85,000 Iowa Republicans turning out it, Romney's and Huckabee's combined $8.4 million-plus comes out to about $100 per GOP vote.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
MOUNT PLEASANT, Iowa -- A woman who famously switched from volunteering for Clinton to Obama has changed her mind... again.
Susan Klopfer was volunteering for Clinton until, she estimates, November. She worked hard as a volunteer, but resented the advance staff that was brought in to take charge of the events. As the next-door neighbor of Clinton backer and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (a recent transplant from Nevada, and therefore, a first-time caucus-goer), Klopfer had a bit higher profile than most Iowans.
When she switched, the Obama campaign made a video that got lots of play, not only on YouTube, but also on cable news programs.
"It got more hits than Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. It got the all-time highest over that weekend," she said of the video's YouTube hits. The video was so potent that the Clinton campaign made an answering video with its own former Obama supporters.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, IA -- One day until the caucuses… As we've noted before, everyone in Iowa is a prisoner of anecdotes right now, because what else do we have to go on? The Des Moines Register poll? Um, no. Anyway, one thing that we picked up yesterday while watching the candidates: Clinton, Obama, and Romney seem a heckuva lot more comfortable on the trail than Edwards and Huckabee. Perhaps that makes a lot of sense because both Edwards and Huckabee HAVE to do well here to take off, while the other three have the resources to reboot their campaign in another state. Obviously, not doing well here will be a problem for Clinton, Obama and Romney -- but not nearly as lethal as doing poorly here would do to Edwards and Huckabee. No wonder the two are pressing.
*** If you haven’t seen enough ads… : And as far as final pitches go, Hillary airs her two-minute appeal on local Iowa TV tonight, and in its she says, " I know you've waited a long time for a president who can see you and hear you, and I would like to be that president. So I ask you to caucus for me tomorrow. Put on your coats, call up a friend, and help me change America. If you stand with me for one night, I will stand up for you every day as your president. I'll work my heart out to bring the country we love the new beginning it needs. And I will be ready to start on day one. " Obama and Edwards also have bought time on Iowa TV to air their closing pitches.
*** Was Mike Henry right? While Clinton does have the resources to reboot her campaign if she loses here, the Politico’s Roger Simon asks a question that we’ve wondered as well: “Should Hillary Clinton have skipped Iowa? If she loses the caucus here Thursday, will her campaign wish it had listened to the advice it got last May to take a hike on the Hawkeye state? Back then, Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, wrote a 1,500-word internal memo saying Iowa was not worth the effort. ‘My recommendation is to pull completely out of Iowa and spend the money and Senator Clinton’s time on other states,’ Henry wrote. ‘If she walks away from Iowa she will devalue Iowa - our consistently weakest state.’ Henry’s advice was never accepted.” By the way, one thing we'd like to consider: Had Obama, and not Clinton received the Des Moines Register endorsement, would the Clinton campaign started pivoting sooner to talking about a national campaign? And the Clinton camp begins the pivoting today with a conference call about the Feb. 5 Georgia primary, not coincidentally, the first primary Bill Clinton won in 1992.
*** John’s back, but where is Rudy? McCain comes back to Iowa. With pretty much every political reporter in the world here -- and looking for a fresh story to write or air -- expect McCain's return to Iowa to get major coverage, perhaps even surge-like coverage. A strong third place finish (even if it's 10 points behind second) could be enough to boomerang McCain in New Hampshire. But where's Rudy? We should have made more of this yesterday, but the candidate took two days off the trail -- two days! -- with less than a week to go before New Hampshire. He returns to the trail today to stump in New Hampshire, where he will unveil a new Afghanistan policy that calls for an Iraq-like military surge.
*** Here’s Huck… : Up until the last month or so, we’ve always wondered if Huckabee REALLY wants to win the GOP nomination. After all, it’s probably not incorrect to note that he’s met with members of the press more than with actual voters. And now, the AP writes, Huckabee is headed to California after a couple of Iowa events this morning to appear on Leno. This coming ONE DAY before the caucuses. “It's just an incredible opportunity to be there, particularly the very first night he's back from the writer's strike," Huckabee said. "Besides, if all else fails and this whole process doesn't work out, maybe he needs a sidekick and I'll be auditioning tomorrow." The Leno gambit might get some big play, but it might also reinforce the image that Huckabee is more interested in getting press than winning the presidency.
*** Weather update: It is currently 2-degrees outside -- yes, it is THAT cold here -- and it is supposed to warm up to 15 degrees today. But Caucus Day will seem balmy by comparison: It’s expected to be mostly sunny in the Des Moines area on Thursday, with a high of 31 and a low of 21. And the weather in the rest of the state will be similar.
*** On the trail: The final day of campaigning before the caucuses… Biden visits Burlington, Ottuwmwa, Oskaloosa, Coralville, and Cedar Rapids; Clinton stops in Indianola, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Ottumwa, and Des Moines; Edwards campaigns in 12 different cities and towns, ending with a rally in West Des Moines featuring John Mellencamp; Huckabee hits Fort Dodge and Mason City; McCain returns to Iowa, visiting Dubuque, Davenport, and Urbandale; Obama is Davenport, Coralville, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Des Moines; Paul -- welcome back to Iowa! -- spends his day in Des Moines; Romney stops in Bettendorf, Cedar Rapids, Clear Lake, and West Des Moines; and Thompson Mason City, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport; and Bill Clinton campaigns in Burlington, Dubuque, Waterloo, Mason City, and Des Moines.
Countdown to Iowa: 1 day
Countdown to New Hampshire: 6 days
Countdown to Michigan: 13 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 17 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 24 days
Countdown to Florida: 27 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 34 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 307 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 384 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
