Delegates
The numbers of the 2008 race
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Obama campaign announced that California DNC Member Ed Espinoza has endorsed the Illinois senator as well today. So far today, it's a net of Obama 4-0. Obama: Espinoza, NC DNC Member John Gage, Reps. Donald Payne of NJ and Peter DeFazio of Oregon. Clinton: Rep. Chris Carney of PA, but she lost lost Payne.
The NBC delegate counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426
SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 266
TOTAL: Obama 1,856, Clinton 1,699.5.
* There are 255.5 undeclared superdelegates (about 50 of which are not named yet).
* Since the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on Tuesday, it's a net of Obama 10-1 in superdelegates.
* Obama is 169 away from the magic number of 2,025.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Where's the super flood? Since Tuesday, Obama has picked up eight superdelegates to Clinton’s net of one. But that’s not quite the superdelegate flood many had expected after North Carolina and Indiana. What’s going on here? Part of it seems to be that some Dem supers are still waiting for the dust to settle from Tuesday’s aftermath. Also, there does seem to be the thought that a quick rush to Obama could end up embarrassing a candidate who’s still campaigning hard in West Virginia, Oregon, and beyond. But there’s also some concern that Obama could be a problem for superdelegates representing conservative and rural districts. See Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney’s endorsement of Clinton today. The fact is this Dem primary race went on long enough and became divisive enough that there are supers who could never endorse Clinton OVER Obama and vice versa. So until Clinton exits, we may not see a super flood. Also, Clinton's camp may have successfully convinced some to wait and see if a 25-30-point Clinton win in West Virginia shakes things up at all.
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on John Edwards' interviews on "TODAY" and "Morning Joe."***
Where we stand: In addition to the two congressional superdelegates (Reps. Brad Miller of NC and Rick Larsen of WA) he picked up yesterday, Obama added two more overnight (Reps. Peter
DeFazio of OR and Donald
Payne of NJ). Payne had previously backed Clinton, so that takes one away from her total, but she made that up with the backing this morning of Rep. Chris
Carney of PA. Here’s the count: PLEDGED: Obama 1590, Clinton 1426; SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 264; TOTAL: Obama 1854, Clinton 1699.5. There are now 257.5 undeclared superdelegates. By the way, if May 20 is indeed the day Obama claims victory (all he needs is about 30 pledged delegates to claim the majority of all pledged delegates awarded), don't expect Obama to give his victory speech in Oregon (the state that will get him most, if not all of those 30 needed delegates). And don't expect the speech to be in Chicago. While the campaign won't say where, start your own pools: Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia? That's the quint-fecta we'd bet.
***
And so it begins…: If yesterday was the second unofficial day of the general campaign between Obama and McCain, then it may end up being a lot more contentious than either candidate themselves has claimed. It all started when Obama -- responding to a question about McCain referring to Obama as the candidate that Hamas is supporting -- said this: “For [McCain] to toss out comments like that I think is an example of him losing his bearings as he pursues this nomination. We don’t need name calling in this debate.” That prompted a response from McCain adviser Mark Salter: “First, let us be clear about the nature of Senator Obama's attack today: He used the words 'losing his bearings' intentionally, a not particularly clever way of raising John McCain's age as an issue. This is typical of the Obama style of campaigning.” And then the Obama camp fired back: “Clearly losing one’s bearings has no relation to age, given this bizarre rant that Mark Salter just sent out. It’s clear why a candidate offering a third term of George Bush’s disastrous economic policies and failed strategy in Iraq would want to distract and attack.” Salter memos are going to become legendary by the end of this campaign; he's one of the more clever writers in politics today and he doesn't mind getting his hands dirty. The sarcastic wit that's usually buried in his missives will no doubt be the source of more heated back-n-forth exchanges.
*** Obama and Jewish voters: Lost in the Hamas back-and-forth between Obama and Mark Salter was the big push yesterday by Obama to start healing whatever wounds there are between Jewish Democrats and Obama. He attended a DC-celebration of the 60th anniversary of Israel and hit all the correct notes any politician needs to hit to earn the trust of Israel and of Jews who see Israel as their No. 1 one voting issue. If this was a start, it may pay dividends, but if this is all Obama does in his reach out, it won't be good enough. Isn't it likely Obama does a major speech on Israel's security sometime soon in a state, oh, like Florida?
*** Is Clinton playing the race card? That seems to be the conclusion of everyone from Peggy Noonan to the New York Times’ editorial page. This warning by the Times will have a lot of people talking today: “Mrs. Clinton claimed in an interview with USA Today that she would be the better nominee because a recent poll showed that ‘Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.’ She added: ‘There’s a pattern emerging here.’ Yes, there is a pattern -- a familiar and unpleasant one. It is up to Mrs. Clinton to change it if she hopes to have any shot at winning the nomination or preserving her integrity and her influence if she loses.” Politico's Smith added that Clinton was as blunt as she ever was on the issue of her white support. He speculated that it might not have been an accident, since there are no primaries left with significant African-American electorates.
*** Just asking: So who watched Edwards on TODAY and MORNING JOE this morning and thinks they've figured out whom he voted for in the North Carolina primary? We think we did. Edwards says he's not ready to endorse, but he did say Obama had the best chance to beat McCain because of new voters. And he refused to discuss whether he and Elizabeth voted for the same person. Anyone who has spent time with Elizabeth Edwards recently probably thinks they know who SHE voted for in the NC primary as well.
*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Oregon and Louisville, KY; McCain begins his day with an event in New Jersey and then heads to South Carolina, where he holds a media avail and raises money; and Obama -- in Oregon like Clinton -- holds a town hall in Albany and a rally in Eugene.
Countdown to West Virginia: 4 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 179 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 256 days
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“Rep. Donald Payne (D-10th Dist.), a New Jersey superdelegate who had been supporting Hillary Clinton for president, has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama. ‘After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs," Payne told The Star-Ledger for today's editions. It was ‘one of the most difficult decisions I have made,’ Payne said. ‘I've really been mulling it over for quite a while."
Also, Obama's trip to Oregon got off to a good start before he even arrived. Congressman Peter DeFazio, a superdelegate, says he will support the Illinois senator. That moves Obama one small step closer to presidential nomination.
Pennsylvania Rep. Chris Carney sided with Clinton, who won his very conservative district.
The Wall Street Journal says some supers haven't come out for Obama because of a fear of "backlash at home." The paper writes, "Many of the politicians sitting on the fence are from conservative states or mostly white, rural districts, where Sen. Obama has had the least success. Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat, is expected to face a tough re-election fight in the fall and hasn't endorsed a presidential candidate. Despite her neutrality, the Republican Party has been airing an advertisement on YouTube that poses the question of whether she will endorse Sen. Obama. The ad transposes her picture with his picture and overlays it with a muddy recording of a speech in which he described small-town and working-class voters as ‘bitter.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
The AP is reporting that Obama picked up an endorsement from another superdelegate: Washington Rep. Rick Larsen.
Here's the breakdown now:
PLEDGED: Obama 1590, Clinton 1426
SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 262
TOTAL: Obama 1852, Clinton 1699.5
There are now 259.5 undeclared superdelegates.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
North Carolina Congressman (and superdelegate) Brad Miller today will endorse Obama, according to his office.
Miller represents the 13th district, which includes Raleigh and Greensboro.
Miller met with Obama today.
*** UPDATE *** So with Miller's endorsement, here's NBC's delegate breakdown:
PLEDGED: Obama 1590, Clinton 1426
SUPERS: Clinton 273.5, Obama 261
TOTAL: Obama 1851, Clinton 1699.5
There are now 260.5 undeclared superdelegates.
*** UPDATE II *** Here's a statement from Miller: "I will cast my vote as a delegate in Denver for Senator Barack Obama. The decision was not easy. Senator Clinton has run an impressive campaign, and has spoken eloquently to the concerns to working and middle class American families. She is one of the great leaders of this generation."
"Senator Obama understands that he has the chance not just to win the election this year, but to be a great president. Americans know that Republican policies have failed because their ideas are wrong. Americans know that our government has not acted to use Franklin Roosevelt's words, as trustees for the whole people, but have taken the side of powerful economic interests on every issue. Americans want a fundamental change in course."
"Senator Obama seized that opportunity."
"If Senator Obama and Democratic candidates up and down the ticket win this year and then deliver next year, we can build a consensus that will last a generation."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
WASHINGTON, DC -- Obama met for about an hour with a small group of superdelegates at a townhouse near the Democratic National Committee this morning.
Among the people believed to be in attendance -- all of them House members -- were the following uncommitted supers: Mike McIntyre (of North Carolina), Zack Space (Ohio), Gabrielle Giffords (Arizona), Jim Costa (California) and Charlie Melancon (Louisiana), as well as several who have already endorsed Obama, including Sanford Bishop (Georgia), Earl Pomeroy (North Dakota), John Barrow (Georgia), and Melissa Bean (Illinois).
Yesterday, after he won big in North Carolina and lost narrowly in Indiana Tuesday night, Team Obama called on the superdelegates who could ultimately pick the nominee to announce their preferences and begin to bring this process to a close. The candidate -- who leads in the popular vote, in states won, and in pledged delegates -- is meeting with some of those supers today in a bid to get them to side with him. Clinton met with several yesterday.
After the meeting, Obama walked with the group about four blocks to the Capitol, as a small band of TV cameras, political reporters, and even representatives from a Japanese network chased after him for comment.
Asked how the meeting went, Obama said: "It's not finished we're still meeting."
Asked whether he had picked up any endorsements. He said: "Patience, guys. How about letting us just walk to the House? I'm sure I will make myself amply available over the next couple of days, so..." Then he turned to people he was walking with and said, "Welcome to my world."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama won a superdelegate switch, the campaign confirms. AP first reported that Virginia's Jennifer McClellan had switched her support from Clinton to Obama.
The day in delegates: Obama 4, Clinton 1
This is the fourth superdelegate endorsement Obama has won today. Clinton has netted one: She lost McClellan, but won the endorsements of Rep. Heath Shuler (NC-11), who said he'd back who won his district. NBC's Mike Viqueira reports Rep. Brad Ellsworth (IN-8) is also backing Clinton, since she won his district last night as well.
The Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5-260
OVERALL: 1,848-1.695.5
* Obama is 177 from the Magic Number of 2,025
* There are 261.5 undeclared superdelegates.
*** UPDATE *** For those asking or wondering, George McGovern is not a superdelegate.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Ellsworth's office sends along this distinction: "I stand by my belief the American people, not superdelegates, should decide who the Democrat nominee will be, and I was glad to see record numbers of Hoosiers getting involved and casting their votes in this historic race," Ellsworth writes in a statement, "If it comes down to the convention, I will cast my vote for the candidate 8th District voters chose unless there is a compelling reason to do otherwise."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Obama campaign annoucned three superdelegates -- Jeanette Council (NC); Jerry Meek (NC) and Inola Henry (CA) -- have pledged support. AP is reporting one more, a switch from Clinton in Virginia, Jennifer McClellan. (We're working to confirm that and will update.)
The Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5-259
OVERALL: 1,847-1.695.5
* Obama is 178 from the Magic Number of 2,025.
* There are 262.5 undeclared superdelegates, including about 50 who are not yet named and will be added on at state conventions or the like.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
North Carolina Rep. Heath Shuler is throwing his superdelegate endorsement to Clinton. Note that Shuler said he would back whomever won his congressional district. Clinton was widely expected to win the district (CD-11), which borders Tennesse. She did so -- by 13 points.
Shuler is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress and won election to CD-11 as part of the Democratic wave in 2006 .
The Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273.5-256
OVERALL: 1,844-1.695.5
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC News has allocated more pledged delegates for last night's contests. The latest:
INDIANA: Clinton 37-33 (2 remain to be allocated)
NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 63-47 (5 remain to be allocated)
The Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1,588-1,422
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 272.5-256 (266.5 undeclared)
OVERALL: Obama 1,844-1.694.5
This would put Obama within 181 of the 2,025 magic number. (This, of course, does not include Florida and Michigan.)
