2009
2009 races
In his first interview since being elected, Chris Christie was asked to name the lowest point in the campaign. To which he replied, “One? He then picked the period when the U.S. Attorneys Office, which he led for seven years, became fodder for attack as Democrats questioned whether Christie used his corruption prosecutions to launch a political career. He said he would not be standoffish to his Democratic opponents during his governorship, because, Christie said, it doesn’t make any sense. You won. That’s the ultimate vindication. But when asked whether he would be drafting an enemies list, Christies response was: Please. I wouldn’t have enough paper.
In his column today, Charlie Cook says that Tuesday's elections only confirmed what we already knew. "We already knew that Democrats had big troubles. We knew that for the past five consecutive elections, the party that had won the White House just a year earlier lost the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia—and that the pattern had a good chance of continuing this year. We knew that the young and minority voters who had never cast a ballot before they did for Barack Obama last year were very unlikely to show up at the polls this year or next. And we already knew that the love affair independents had with Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 was over. Independents haven’t turned against President Obama. They’ve just stepped back, become more skeptical, and to some extent begun turning on Democrats as a party."
And in his latest National Journal column, Ron Brownstein, notes how young voters, independents, and the suburbs turned away from the Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. "None of this guarantees Democrats will lose these voters in 2010, but it does suggest they need to mend fences. Economic recovery, of course, would help them everywhere."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
If you're looking for the full 2009 exit polls, here they are:
And here's a compilation of some of what we've written over the past few days going inside these numbers.
As we wrote in First Thoughts yesterday: The election provided some clear warning signs for the president and the Democrats. Per the exits, 60% in New Jersey and 56% in Virginia said Obama wasn't a factor in their vote. Moreover, Obama's approval in Jersey was 57%, matching the percentage he won in the state in 2008. And Obama's approval in VA was 48%, down from the 53% he won in the state in 2008. But here are the warning signs: Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%) after Obama won them 51%-47% last year. And in Virginia, McDonnell won indies by 33 points (66%-33%) after Obama won them 49%-48% last year. Understanding why campaigns win or lose is sometimes a simple thing -- it's about the middle, it's about independents. Indeed, it's one of the oldest rules of politics.
Video: Chuck Todd's Nightly News spot on the economic worries in 2009 election
Chuck's broader TODAY show spot
Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go: While last night wasn’t a referendum on Obama, Creigh Deeds probably wishes it was; he might have performed better. According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin.
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Congressional Democrats seem to have two different ideas on what Tuesday’s elections meant for their party, the Washington Post says. “[M]oderate and conservative Democrats took a clear signal from Tuesday's voting, warning that the results prove that independent voters are wary of Obama's far-reaching proposals and mounting spending, as well as the growing federal debt. Liberal lawmakers, meanwhile, said the party's shortcoming came in moving too slowly on health-care reform and other items that would satisfy a base becoming disenchanted with the failure to deliver rapid change in government.”
Roll Call notes that moderates' opinions on health reform legislation didn't change because of the elections.
The New York Times front-pages, “Republicans emerged from Tuesday’s elections energized by victories in Virginia and New Jersey, but their leaders immediately began maneuvering to avoid a prolonged battle with conservative activists over what the party stands for and how to regain power… Despite Mr. Hoffman’s loss [in NY-23], many conservatives promised to press on with opposition to centrist Republican candidates. That vow intensified concerns among party leaders that the opportunities they see coming out of Tuesday’s results could be dimmed by intramural battles over whether to reach for the political center or do more to motivate the base on the party’s right.”
The Washington Post adds that the GOP’s “fortunes in next year's midterm elections may rest in its ability to harness a populist wave of voter discontent with Washington and government spending. But the surprising Democratic victory in the New York congressional election -- despite the intervention of conservative activists -- for a seat the GOP held for more than a century was sobering evidence that rallying behind conservative candidates may not be the answer.”
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From NBC's Kelly Paice
More happened yesterday than just two gubernatorial races and a special congressional election -- key ballot initiatives were voted on across the nation.
To name a few, in Maine, voters repealed the state's law allowing same-sex marriage, a law that was signed by Gov. John Baldacci (D) only six months ago. According to the AP, the repeal passed by a 53%-47% margin. Also, a measure in Washington state that would expand rights and responsibilities to those in same-sex domestic partnerships is ahead 51%-49%, with 50% of precincts counted.
Cha-ching! Ohio voters called for the building of four casinos across the state -- in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.
Moreover, voters in Washington state rejected a ballot measure that would have regulated state and local tax revenue. Maine residents also rejected such a "Taxpayer Bill of Rights" initiative.
However, Maine did pass a referendum on making medical marijuana dispensaries legal. Maine is the fifth state -- following California, Colorado, New Mexico, and Rhode Island -- to allow the sale of medical marijuana legal at certain locations, according to AP.
From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Here's a look at the results of the mayoral races -- beyond the higher-profile ones in New York City and Boston.
In Atlanta, a six-way race will lead to a December runoff between the top two candidates, city councilwoman Mary Norwood (I) and state Sen. Kasim Reed (D). According to the AP, Norwood received 45% of the vote and Reed got 38%. If elected, Norwood would become the city's first white mayor since 1973.
Despite a late September poll showing more Charlotte, NC residents would vote for city councilman John W. Lassiter (R) than his opponent, councilman Anthony Foxx (D), the latter won the election by nearly 3,000 votes, becoming the first Democratic mayor of the city in 21 years.
In Ohio, the Democratic incumbent Mayors Mark Mallory of Cincinnati and Frank G. Jackson of Cleveland won re-election. Both supported the Ohio ballot initiative authorizing casino construction in four cities.
Former fire chief and Democrat-turned-independent Mike Bell defeated Democrat (and high school classmate) Keith Wilkowski, 52%-48%. Bell supports the approved casino initiative in Toledo.
Detroit mayor and former NBA star Dave Bing (D) received 58% of the vote to win his first full term after replacing scandal-plagued ex-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick in a May special election.
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From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The 2009 gubernatorial elections provided a much-needed momentum boost for Republicans after back-to-back election cycle drubbings.
But the GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia don’t necessarily tell us all that much about how the party will fare in next year’s midterm elections: Gubernatorial races generally say less about the national dynamic than they do local issues, and that's certainly true this year.
In New Jersey, Chris Christie's win over Jon Corzine demonstrated that under the right circumstances the GOP can be successful in a blue state. He pulled it off by capitalizing on the state’s troubled economic environment.
Virginia’s gubernatorial race was for an open seat -- as it incredibly is every four years -- and it was an uphill battle for the Democrats from the beginning. Democrat Creigh Deeds was not a solid candidate, but there were few, if any, alternatives, who could have beaten Bob McDonnell, a solid candidate.
Upstate New Yorkers don't like carpetbaggers. The Conservative Party candidate, Doug Hoffman, didn't live in the district, became the national candidate, and didn't have a command of local issues. The local candidate who best understood that district -- Democrat Bill Owens -- won.
For more, read the full story here.
From NBC's Mark Murray
On MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," White House adviser David Axelrod today argued that it would be wrong to read too much into last night's GOP gubernatorial wins in New Jersey and Virginia -- and what they might mean for next year's midterm elections.
And if you read us earlier this morning, Axelrod does seem to have a point.
But looking back at First Read's coverage the day after the 2005 New Jersey and Virginia contests, we had forgotten that Rahm Emanuel -- then chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and now White House chief of staff -- had called us to argue the very point Republicans are now making: that the two gubernatorial contests say something about the upcoming midterms.
Here's what we wrote then:
Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, calling First Read immediately after Kaine's and Corzine's victories were announced, argued that it's clear Democratic voters were already energized earlier in the year when Democrat Paul Hackett nearly won a traditionally GOP-leaning Ohio House district. "I think that's even more true today." He also pointed out that the mayors of Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Paul, MN were all losing. "A lot of incumbents are losing to change," he said (although he neglected to mention that these three mayors are Democrats, though the one from St. Paul endorsed Bush last year).
*** UPDATE *** Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's office also sends along this Nov. 2005 Roll Call piece. "In an interview last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) said that regardless of the results, the gubernatorial outcomes stand to have a huge effect on how 2006 is viewed. 'Whatever the outcome of those elections, it will have an impact on people's interpretations of the upcoming election,' Emanuel said, adding that Democratic wins across the board could have a positive impact on the party's 2006 recruiting efforts.”
From NBC's Madeline Rullo
At House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's weekly briefing today, she commented on last night's elections, simply stating, "We won last night."
Question: "Madame speaker, Madame speaker, do the election results last night -- do they make it harder for you to pass health care, especially to get the support from members in these swing districts?"
Pelosi's answer: "From my perspective, we won last night. We had one race that we were engaged in -- it was in northern New York. It was a race where a Republican has held a seat since the Civil War, and we won that seat. So from our standpoint, no. We had a candidate that was victorious who supports the health-care reform... So from our standpoint, we picked up voted last night, one in California [CA-10] and one in New York."
What conservatives just don't get about NY-23's message
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The morning after, conservative idol Sarah Palin's message for the tribe was essentially: The sky IS red, conservatives.
A defiant Palin wrote on her Facebook page last night, "The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010."
You betcha!
Those who thought a loss for the Conservative Party candidate,
Doug Hoffman, was a setback for the conservative movement are probably right, but that's no matter to Palin-ites. They'd argue they only lost because the stodgy Republican establishment didn't embrace Hoffman SOONER.
That's highly arguable, considering Hoffman's lack of knowledge of local issues, his carpetbagger status (he doesn't live in NY-23), and his just overall poor appearance as a candidate. He was always more of an idea. He wouldn't even meet with the Syracuse Post-Standard's editorial board, but who could blame him after his disastrous appearance before the local Watertown Daily Times.
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"Republicans swept contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday as voters went to the polls filled with economic uncertainty, dealing President Obama a setback and building momentum for a Republican comeback attempt in next year’s midterm Congressional elections," the New York Times writes. "But in a closely watched Congressional race in upstate New York, a Democrat who received a late push from the White House triumphed over a conservative candidate who attracted national backers ranging from Rush Limbaugh to Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor."
The Times’ Nagourney adds, “The results in the New Jersey and Virginia races underscored the difficulties Mr. Obama is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for Democrats or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles.”
The Washington Post’s Balz: “Off-year elections can be notoriously unreliable as predictors of the future, but as a window on how the political landscape may have changed in the year since President Obama won the White House, Tuesday's Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey delivered clear warnings for the Democrats. Neither gubernatorial election amounted to a referendum on the president, but the changing shape of the electorates in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the Obama 2008 coalition and demonstrated that, at this point, Republicans have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections.”
Politico: “The off-year elections were, in two big races, an unmistakable rebuke of Democrats, reshuffling Obama’s political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy.”
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