2012
News about the 2012 elections
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here is our take from last week's Republican Governors Association meeting in Texas.
CEDAR CREEK, Texas - The message that the Republican Governors Association was trying to send to the donors, party big-wigs and political reporters who attended its annual meeting last week wasn't subtle.
The Republican Party, the RGA boasted, is making a comeback.
They underscored this in a video presentation to attendees. "America’s comeback starts with us," said the narrator in the video. "We are the Republican governors."
There was even a "Comeback Bash" that concluded the meeting.
And these kinds of declarations were commonplace. "Next year is going to be a good year for us," said Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, chairman of the RGA.
After the GOP's political setbacks in 2006 and 2008, there is little doubt that the political winds have shifted. Earlier this month, Republicans won the gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, two states where Republicans hadn't enjoyed much recent success.
What's more, President Barack Obama's poll numbers have fallen back to earth (and his job rating is now below 50 percent, according to the Gallup poll). Public support for his key initiatives — health care and the economic stimulus — is mixed at best. And the unemployment rate now tops 10 percent.
"For the first time since 2004, the playing field has tilted against Democrats," said political analyst Jennifer Duffy, who monitors Senate and gubernatorial races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
But talking about a comeback is one thing; actually achieving it — in next year's midterm elections and beyond — is another.
Here's the full story.
From NBC's Mark Murray
AUSTIN, Tex. -- When GOP governors huddled at the annual Republican Governors Association meeting a year ago in Miami, the party had just suffered another thumping at the polls, Sarah Palin was the unquestioned star attraction, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty was urging his party to be more positive and inclusive, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist was seen as a new hope for the GOP.
But as this year's RGA meeting begins in earnest here deep in the heart of Texas, things have certainly changed. Republicans are now celebrating their wins earlier this month in New Jersey and Virginia; Palin is no longer in office and is instead selling her controversial memoir; Pawlenty has become a frequent Obama critic and is emphasizing his conservative views; and Crist (who won't be in attendance) has gone from possible GOP hope to a conservative target in his race for the Senate next year.
Indeed, at least four stories will be on display here at the RGA meeting, which concludes on Thursday night. One, is the GOP poised for a political comeback? Two, looking ahead to 2012, who are the party's potential presidential candidates? (Pawlenty, Louisiana's Bobby Jindal, RGA Chair Haley Barbour of Mississippi, and Indiana's Mitch Daniels will be in attendance.) Three, who are their top gubernatorial candidates for the 2010 midterms? (Ohio's John Kasich, Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett, and Florida's Bill McCollum will be here.) And four, is there really an ideological split inside the party? (While Palin is selling her book today in Michigan, the RGA will be celebrating two Republicans who won, in part, by hugging the middle -- New Jersey Gov.-elect Chris Christie and Virginia Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell.)
It's also worth noting how the GOP rhetoric has changed from last year to this year. Here was Pawlenty a year ago in Miami: "People mostly want to follow positive leaders; they don't want to follow cranks." Here was Jindal: "We can't just be the party of 'No.'" Here was even Palin: "We are the minority party, but let us resolve not to become the negative party." Ironically, becoming the party of "No" has paid dividends -- so far -- for the GOP a year after Obama's historic win. The question to ponder is whether that's a sustainable long-term message for the party.
Today's RGA agenda: The public events kick off at 5:30 pm ET with a plenary session entitled "State-Based Solutions." It features Pawlenty, Jindal, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Kasich, Corbett, Christie, and McDonnell. Then, at 7:00 pm ET, there's a press briefing to discuss the 2009 campaigns. Speakers include RGA Chairman Barbour, McDonnell, Christie, RGA Executive Director Nick Ayers, and GOP pollster Glen Bolger and Jon Lerner. Finally, at 8:35 pm ET, Perry, Jindal, McDonnell, and Christie speak at a "Victory Barbeque."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Dan Balz, in his latest analysis piece, makes a point we've been thinking about here: the Pawlenty-Romney comparison:
Still, there is something Romneyesque in all this. Four years ago, Romney lurched to the right in preparation for his presidential candidacy. He did it on social issues, where his prior support for abortion and gay rights left him vulnerable on his right flank. Pawlenty has a consistent record of opposition to abortion and gay marriage. In his case, he appears to be catering to the conservative, populist anger on the right, which is challenging the party establishment and attacking Obama in sometimes extreme language.
The real risk for Pawlenty, as Romney learned in his unsuccessful 2008 campaign, is losing his true voice and his authenticity. Romney spent so much time trying to reposition himself and picking narrow tactical fights with his rivals that the qualities that might have made him a more attractive candidate were lost in the smoke. But once a candidate starts down that road, it can be hard to pull back.
It is an interesting point. Authenticity was Romney's biggest problem in 2008. There was no escaping his RECENT more liberal record and comments as governor of Massachusetts, a state with ZERO Republican members of Congress.
Pawlenty has a similar problem -- a Republican governor hailing from a blue state needing to tack to the right to win over conservatives. As Balz points out, Pawlenty's never been a red-meat guy, and his tone nowadays is A LOT different than right after the election. In addition to the missteps Balz outlines -- not the least of which was intimating that Olympia Snowe didn't belong in the party -- he was late to the game in NY-23, first saying he wasn't following what was happening there, then endorsing the Conservative Party candidate only after Sarah Palin did.
Next week, Pawlenty speaks again before the Republican Governors Association's annual conference in Austin, Texas. Last year, at the RGA, he delivered some tough medicine to his party and seemed to be trying to draw a distinction between himself and Palin.
Now, he's following her.
*** UPDATE *** A Pawlenty adviser responds in an e-mail to First Read: "Some people may assume that Governor Pawlenty's a moderate since he hails from such a liberal-leaning state, but in fact his record is consistently conservative. Since he ran as a conservative and governered as a conservative, it should be no surprise that he continues to lead as a conservative now. He feels strongly that President Obama and Congressional Democrats are leading the country in the wrong direction on health care and deficit spending, and he's going to say so."
*** UPDATE 2 *** The Pawlenty adviser disagrees that Pawlenty's "rhetoric is different. Governor Pawlenty's obviously critical of Obama -- but that's more a reflection of Obama now governing as a movement liberal after running as a post-partisan pragmatist.
"'Our party is not big enough to be throwing people out' is a message he repeats everywhere he goes, including his 'Pretzels & Pints' event in DC, and his recent speech to Western CPAC. Most recently, Pawlenty's speech in Iowa included a strong call-to-action to attract more people into the Republican Party by doing a better job of communicationg our ideas, and relating our principles to the problems facing average folks."
From NBC's Mark Murray
Tim Pawlenty appears to be the first potential 2012 Republican presidential candidate to release a statement on Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia.
I want to send my congratulations to Bob, Maureen and their family. Bob ran a positive campaign based on the conservative principles of fiscal responsibility and low taxes. Virginians embraced his conservative message, rejecting more taxes, card-check and spending that would hurt economic growth and job creation. I'm especially proud of the RGA's historic role in supporting Bob's effort, and look forward to working with the Governor-Elect next year.
From NBC's Ali Weinberg
Flaws in the Democratic primary system were exposed in last year’s nominating process. States jockeyed for position and influence, and the arcane and complex system of “superdelegates” overwhelmed voters and dominated conversation.
Democrats, aiming to avoid that kind of confusion in subsequent elections, began on Saturday in Washington to try and streamline the process. Ideas from members of the Democratic Change Commission -- a 36-member commission of elected officials, consultants and activists created by the Democratic National Committee at President Obama’s request -- included encouraging states to move back the dates of their contests, reducing the number of automatic unpledged delegates (i.e. “superdelegates”), and drafting a standardized list of best practices for the 18 states that vote for a Democratic nominee through caucuses.
Commission members agreed that too many states hold their primaries too early in the nominating season, potentially breaking up momentum between the primaries and the general election. There was broad consensus that last year’s Super Tuesday elections on Feb. 5, in which 23 jurisdictions held their nominating contests, hurt all the campaigns because candidates couldn't hit all the states.
CONTINUED >>
FLORIDA: State Senator Ted Deutch (D) announced his intent to run in a special election for Representative Robert Wexler’s House seat, after the congressman announced yesterday he would resign the seat in January.
CONNECTICUT: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), running for Sen. Arlen Specter’s seat, will get endorsed Monday by Ned Lamont, the former victor over Joe Lieberman in Connecticut’s Senate race, who later lost to the incumbent when he switched parties.
DELAWARE: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and Attorney General Beau Biden (D) are neck-and-neck in a potential Senate race matchup, 46% to 45%, a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll finds.
NEVADA: Harry Reid will begin airing campaign commercials in Nevada today, coinciding with Vice President Biden’s visit to the state and appearance with Reid at a fundraiser today. Reid is trailing in polls to two relatively unknown Republican candidates, former state party chairman Sue Lowden and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian.
NYC MAYOR: City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D) yesterday said one way to reduce New York’s $5 billion deficit would be to hit up “a friend in Washington.” He suggested working with President as one way to reduce the budget, as well as rooting out waste in each city agency and re-instating the commuter tax, which Mayor Michael Bloomberg called “pie-in-the-sky” thinking.
Presidential candidate... Mike Pence? His travel schedule is raising eyebrows, writes
The Hill. Pence has traveled to Iowa but also made a quiet trip to South Carolina where he met with party activists this week.
FLORIDA: Fervor for Florida gubernatorial Alex Sink (D) is at a fever pitch, but few voters have the same enthusiasm or confidence in senatorial candidate Kendrick Meek (D)’s chances against current governor Charlie Crist. But Crist’s Republican challenger is also
gaining steam, some analysts say.
TEXAS GOVERNOR: Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison may delay her resignation a tad longer, so she
acknowledges. Many DC Republicans would prefer if she didn't resign at all, or at least until AFTER 2010.
“More than 100 Democratic House members have yet to contribute a penny of their obligations for the 2010 election cycle to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,” the National Journal writes. This suggests many incumbents are facing competitive races next year, in which case they are exempt from paying. But some who don’t face serious challenges, including some safe liberals in blue Northeastern states, also haven’t paid, leading some to suggest dissatisfaction within the party. Among those who haven’t paid but are exempted are fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats, almost all of whom face tough re-election campaigns. “But privately, the frustration against better-positioned members, including members of the Progressive Caucus and the Congressional Black Caucus, is palpable.”
New York: Representative Charlie Rangel, the embattled Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, will
face a former campaign director in the 2010 primaries. It's always amazing how the ballot box can take care of problems the House leadership (no matter the party) fails to confront. Take this primary challenge very seriously.
The Wall Street Journal examines the Republican strategy of turning Nancy Pelosi into the Newt Gingrich of the Democratic Party.
"One typical radio ad targeted Representative Zack Space, a conservative "Blue Dog" Democrat from Ohio's sprawling 18th district, which covers much of the southeastern part of the sate. "He's not voting like a blue dog, he's voting like a lap dog," the narrator says, as barking is heard in the background. "A lap dog for Nancy Pelosi and President Obama. Space has been voting with liberal Pelosi 96% of the time." Mr. Space's office didn't respond to requests for comment."
Politics Daily's Jill Lawrence notes that THIS Congress is unpopular for doing stuff... unlike previous Congress' who have been unpopular for doing nothing.
The biggest story of the 2010 cycle in the spring, at least, will be the intra-party primary feuds and the tea party activists are playing a big role, potentially.
Democrats running campaigns in 2010 are debating how closely to align themselves with President Obama. At issue is whether his oratory and fundraising gifts are enough to outweigh the polarizing effect he may have in red-state Congressional districts.
