Barack Obama
From msnbc.com’s Carrie Dann
Just shy of two years after Iowans propelled Barack Obama to victory in the first major test of the 2008 Democratic primary, the president’s approval rating in the first caucus state has fallen below 50 percent. A new Des Moines Register poll conducted by the revered Selzer and Co. shows Obama’s positive rating at just 49 percent, a full 19 points below his approval in the state at the time of his inauguration.
(Selzer, you might remember, was the same pollster that showed Obama leading by eight points before the primary against Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
The poll was released Saturday, just as Vice President Joe Biden was arriving in Des Moines to speak as the featured guest at the Iowa Democratic Party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner. Ouch.
Obama’s fiery speech at the same venue in 2007 was widely credited as a key moment that vaulted the Illinois senator over rival Hillary Clinton in the Iowa contest.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama has now dropped, for the first time, below 50% approval in the Gallup poll. It's the second poll this week to show that result.
This puts Obama on par with Ronald Reagan, who also fell below 50% 10 months into the job -- and better than Bill Clinton, who fell below in his fourth month. Reagan was dealing with similar economic numbers.
For context, here's what we wrote about this when the possibility was first floated that Obama could fall below 50% back on Sept. 2nd:
*** They’ve done studies, you know -- 50% of the time, it works every time: As of yesterday, President Obama’s approval rating in the Gallup daily tracking poll was 52%, which is close to the 51% in our NBC poll from last month. As Gallup has noted, if Obama falls below 50% in his eighth month on the job, it will be the third-fastest drop below that mark for a new president since World War II. Gerald Ford fell below 50% in his third month, Bill Clinton in his fourth month, Ronald Reagan in his 10th month, Jimmy Carter in his 13th month, Richard Nixon in his 25th month, LBJ in his 29th month, Bush 41 in his 36th month, Bush 43 in his 37th month, and Eisenhower in his 63rd month. Note: Kennedy never fell below 50% before he was assassinated, and George W. Bush was approaching that mark right before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. A few things to remember about all the analysis folks will see on polls in the coming days: There are more BAD polls now than ever before; it confuses the issue and lets some folks cherry-pick what they want. The VERY erratic robo-polling firms have added to the confusion like never before.
*** Obama has him where he wants them? This data above tell us a few things. One, Obama has had a rapid drop and that doesn’t help his prospects for things like health-care reform. Two, the most recent presidents -- Reagan, Clinton, and Bush 43 (right before 9/11) -- have experienced similar drops, suggesting an increased political polarization over the past 20 or so years. Three, taking George W. Bush out of the equation due to 9/11, every president who has ended up winning re-election since 1980 saw his approval rating drop below 50% in his first year. Moral of the story: If your goal is to get re-elected, it’s better to have your political struggles early (Clinton, Reagan) rather than later (Bush 41). Kind of like a college football season, right? Better to lose early, than late. So be careful what you read into what Obama’s approval rating right now means for his presidency. There’s really no correlation between how quickly a president’s poll numbers drop and the overall success of his presidency.
“Growing discontent over the economy and frustration with efforts to speed its recovery boiled over Thursday on Capitol Hill in a wave of criticism and outright anger directed at the Obama administration,” the Washington Post writes. “President Obama's allies in the Congressional Black Caucus, exasperated by the administration's handling of the economy, unexpectedly blocked one his top priorities, using a legislative maneuver to postpone the approval of financial reform legislation by a key House committee.”
“Two buildings away, at a session of the Joint Economic Committee, Republicans escalated their attacks on Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, including a call for his resignation.”
In addition, per the Wall Street Journal: “The House Financial Services Committee voted, 43-26, to approve a measure sponsored by Texas Republican Ron Paul, vociferously opposed by the Fed, that would direct the congressional Government Accountability Office to expand its audits of the Fed to include decisions about interest rates and lending to individual banks. The Fed says the provision threatens its ability to make monetary policy without political interference.”
"Geithner is coming under new pressure from conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats to resign," The Hill writes. "Reps. Peter DeFazio (D-Ore.) and Kevin Brady (R-Texas) this week joined a small group of lawmakers publicly calling for Geithner to step down. Former Republican Rep. Rob Simmons, who is challenging Sen. Chris Dodd (D) for Senate in Connecticut, has made Geithner’s resignation a campaign issue. Geithner was forced to defend himself Thursday at a public hearing on Capitol Hill during which he was pointedly asked by Brady to resign."
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From NBC’s Betsy Cline
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen said today the president's decision on troop levels was imminent for Afghanistan, though he didn't know exactly when.
In response to a question about what worries him most, Mullen told a group of National Guardsmen it was Afghanistan and Pakistan keeping him up at night. But, he said, the deliberations with the President's national security team about what to do next have been positive and open to differing viewpoints. He said he appreciated the depth and breadth of the conversations.
Defense Secretary Gates also spoke at the event but did not mention the pending Afghanistan decision. He spoke mostly supporting the National Guard and their families, particularly in regards to increasing troop dwell time, or the amount of time between deployments.
“After taking his message as the ‘first Pacific president’ through four countries in eight days, President Obama wrapped up his tour of Asia on Thursday with talks with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and a planned visit to U.S. troops stationed in the shadow of nuclear-armed North Korea,” the Washington Post’s Kornblut writes. “The Seoul stop was the last on a trip that has notably lacked concrete achievements but has seen Obama's personal narrative on full display, as he reminisced about the ice cream he ate during a childhood visit to Japan, invoked his "historic ties" to Indonesia and recalled his mother's work in the villages of Southeast Asia. After more than a week of using his biography to connect to audiences in Asia -- perhaps the last corner of the globe where he had yet to take his story -- Obama appeared as popular as ever among ordinary citizens in the region. But is his biography-as-diplomacy approach beginning to show its limits?”
“President Barack Obama said Thursday the United States has begun talking with allies about fresh punishment against Iran for defying efforts to halt its nuclear weapons pursuits. Obama's tough talk came as Iran indicated it would not ship its low-enriched uranium to Russia for processing, the centerpiece of deal aimed at a peaceful resolution to Iran's contested nuclear program. ‘They have been unable to get to ‘yes,’ and so as a consequence, we have begun discussions with our international partners about the importance of having consequences,’ Obama said in a brief news conference with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.”
The New York Times: “Mr. Obama’s words were his strongest to date and seemed to signal that he was ready to move to sanctions.”
“Congress approved stimulus funding to jump-start the economy, mostly by creating jobs, but also by paying for existing public services and cutting-edge research. In many cases, the $3.9 billion awarded in Massachusetts is financing precisely such ventures,” the Boston Globe says. “But millions of dollars are going to investments that seem further afield from the stimulus plan’s mission.”
The New York Daily News looks at what it sees as the aging of this president: “President Obama didn't look his age when he took office in January. Ten months later, nobody would mistake him for a kid.”
From NBC's Athena Jones
SEOUL -- President Obama's trip to Asia was a success, so declared White House senior adviser David Axelrod in response to questions about just what has been accomplished during the president's weeklong first foray to the region.
Axelrod argued the president had done what he set out to do -- lay a solid foundation for diplomacy and strengthen relationships, even as he prepared to return to Washington without the kinds of solid takeaways previous presidential trips have generally produced.
"We didn't come halfway across the world for tickertape parades," he told reporters after Obama and South Korean President Lee Myung Bak held a joint press appearance at the Blue House here. "We came here to lay a foundation for progress. We've done that."
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From NBC's Ken Strickland
In what appears to be the administration making a a last-minute push to curry votes for health care, Vice President Joe Biden is up there lobbying as is former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.
Interior Secretary
Ken Salazar, a former centrist U.S. Senator has also been spotted in the hallways, but he says he's just up there to see friends and that he's not really lobbying for health care.
But it's worth noting that Salazar is still friends with many of the key moderate senators whose votes will be crucial in defeating a potential Republican filibuster. Salazar said he was going to see his old friend Arkansas
Sen. Mark Pryor (D), for one.
He certainly picked an odd day to go to the Hill just to hang out, especially since Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is hoping for a vote as early as Friday.
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The New York Times: In six hours of meetings, at two dinners and during a stilted 30-minute news conference in which President Hu Jintao did not allow questions, President Obama was confronted, on his first visit, with a fast-rising China more willing to say no to the United States. On topics like Iran (Mr. Hu did not publicly discuss the possibility of sanctions), China’s currency (he made no nod toward changing its value) and human rights (a joint statement bluntly acknowledged that the two countries “have differences”), China held firm against most American demands.”
The Washington Post adds, “President Obama has emerged from his first trip to China with no big breakthroughs on important issues, such as Iran's nuclear program or China's currency. Yet after two days of talks with the United States' biggest creditor, the administration asserted that relations between the two countries are at ‘an all-time high.’”
“A must-see for presidents from President Richard Nixon on, the Great Wall was one of Obama's major sightseeing stops during his diplomatic tour of Asia. He later traveled to Seoul, South Korea, the final stop of his eight-day trip,” the AP writes. Dressed in a winter jacket against a biting wind at the Great Wall, Obama led a knot of people for a half-hour jaunt up the crenelated wall toward a watchtower, a restored section originally built 500 years ago.”
The president has arrived in South Korea, and the Washington Post previews his agenda in Seoul. “President Obama, who arrived here Wednesday night on the final stop of his East Asia tour, will grapple with two longstanding U.S. concerns on the Korean Peninsula, one in the nuclear-armed North and the other here in the trade-dependent South.”
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Here’s the New York Times wrapping up Obama’s day in China: “President Obama and President Hu Jintao of China met in private off Tiananmen Square here on a frigid Tuesday morning to discuss issues like trade, climate change and the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, in a session that signaled the central role of China on the world stage. The leaders told reporters afterward that the United States and China were in agreement on a range of issues, but they spoke only in general terms.”
The Washington Post adds, “A stiff joint appearance by Obama and Hu in the Great Hall of the People overlooking Tiananmen Square crystallized the state of the relationship between the two world powers: increasingly important to both countries, but also curiously bereft of warmth or intimacy.”
The AP looks at Obama's bow -- which is being criticized on the right -- and it finds lots of spin in opponents' criticism: "While it may have been an awkward moment, it wasn't without precedent. And it appeared to be well within protocol guidelines that the State Department issues for foreign service officers working in other countries."
According to Politico, "White House aides say the approach is deliberate – part of Obama’s determination to deliver on his campaign promise of directly engaging friends and enemies alike, giving America a less belligerent posture abroad. 'I think it's very important for the United States not to assume that what is good for us is automatically good for somebody else,' Obama told the students at the town hall, in Shanghai. 'And we have to have some modesty about our attitudes towards other countries.'"
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From NBC's Rich Gardella
A closed briefing about the Fort Hood shooting incident for staff members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, originally scheduled for later this afternoon, has been postponed, according to the Committee's Democratic majority staff.
A representative of Chairman Levin's office confirmed that the Committee postponed the briefing at the request of the Obama administration.
According to previous reports, U.S. Army Secretary John McHugh and Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey would have briefed staffers about the details of the Fort Hood incident.
The briefing would have been the third for Senate Armed Services Committee staff.
